GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal - futures io
futures io



GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one GFIs1 with 3,393 posts (8,102 thanks)
    2. looks_two ratfink with 83 posts (146 thanks)
    3. looks_3 CPRICE76 with 72 posts (29 thanks)
    4. looks_4 xelaar with 69 posts (95 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one choke35 with 2.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two GFIs1 with 2.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 ratfink with 1.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 xelaar with 1.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 618,996 views
    2. thumb_up 9,339 thanks given
    3. group 213 followers
    1. forum 4,492 posts
    2. attach_file 343 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

(login for full post details)
  #3901 (permalink)
alexk1968
athens, greece
 
 
Posts: 53 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 5 given, 19 received


GFIs1 View Post
As described in my last post the markets in Europe are under pressure. Already 3 dead virus patients in Italy led to the closing of trains going to Austria. This is severe for every normality but still just the tip of the iceberg. We are starting the day 150 points lower in the DAX...

Dax short from 9:30 to 15:30

entry @
exit @
result

GFIs1

Selling fdax at 9:30 at -3% with rsi 30min at 13, surely needs guts... Bravo anyway...

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to alexk1968 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3902 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


alexk1968 View Post
Selling fdax at 9:30 at -3% with rsi 30min at 13, surely needs guts... Bravo anyway...

Looking back to the timing - entry was right - exit as well. Result still ok as in this thread we are only speaking of a day trade with no overnight or over weekend option.
As mentioned this slump of today (gap over weekend plus a very special down during the day) is only the start. We will see a lot more of this coming up very soon. Can of course go into reverse direction for a moment - so don't be fooled!

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3903 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

After a turmoil Monday around the globe's stock markets will be no trade today - even the price in the DAX came back a bit in the futures pre cash hour.
At least we need to have an eye on the development as a Walzer might take place.

Good trades
GFIs1

edit 9:45 - Walzer looks nearly good to start 10:00
details here:

edit 11:05 first leg worked - second in progress

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3904 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

At the moment just before cash closing the DAX is @ 12790.
Next goal tomorrow: 12450
and from there the direction will not quickly change.

High / Low more than 375 points (daily cash)

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3905 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Dax 4 days in a row deep red...
Price again where it was in the uptrend of Oct 2019.
Corona cases now popping up around the world - even first case(s) in South America.
Outlook not good on airlines, banks, cards, production, transport, chemicals travel & hotels.
Offices closed - some people doing home office in more and more countries now.
Start this morning on the futures still lower than cash low yesterday - might give a gap entry.

Expecting a further down today - IB will tell by 9:30.

Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 12605
exit @ 12635 (SL)
result -30 points

Price was turning up - high vola
GFIs1

edit 10:20 - mentioned yesterday 12450: the train was very quick down to 12370... and up again
edit 11:55 - US oil on new lows since 12 months (49$/br), Brent (54$/br) - shows quicky shrinking demand in the markets
edit 12:00 - high vola in the DAX. entry of this trade was well timed... 87 points in 30m and far from a SL
edit 12:40 - unfortunately kissed the stop loss

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3906 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

A fight of the DAX to not make the 5th red daily candle in a row.
Result not clear - @ 16:00.

Looking at the bigger picture the price must head lower - be it in the daily, 4h, 1h or 30m chart.
Things will for sure be influence by the numbers of inactivity of business around the globe with
support of the medical news coming in every hour...

Looks so that indices might be under pressure until end of first week in march.

Of course for the trades here just the rules are counting - no news allowed

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3907 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

DAX starts again lower than prev. day closing - a whoppy 300 points. Now around the 12450 as mentioned before. The 6th red day in a row. Means all stock markets around the world lost totally 3.3 trillion dollars in this correction up to now.
As there seems no halt in the down direction right now caused by the Corona virus the indices will get lower in the next weeks.

GFIs1

edit 12:20 - 12450 again as a support at least for the moment. Tomorrow Friday the last - will be very interesting to see a nice trade.
edit 22:00 - 12150 for the DAX is end of day... a very red 6th day

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3908 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

The MSCI world index fell 8.9 percent from Monday to Thursday.
This index tracks the performance of 1600 stocks from 23 industrialized countries.

The Dow Jones index of blue chips closed 4.4 percent or 1190 points lower on Thursday at 25,766 points. For the Dow, this was the largest one-day point drop in its history. On Thursday, the Dax and EuroStoxx50 fell at times by about 4.5 percent each to their lowest levels in more than four and a half months.

This could be his worst week since November 2008, when the loss in the MSCI was 9.8 percent.

Tokio's Nikkei started today with -3,5%. Actual standing -4,7%.

DAX started precash lower than 11800: actual 11796 with a large down gap of over 580 points

GFIs1

PS 1: Remember: today is Friday AND last trading day of the month
PS 2: For a catalog of reasons of the heavy turmoil please (re)read my post from last Sunday here in this thread:

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3909 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Actual corona infected persons worldwide: confirmed 83.389, deaths 2.858, recovered 36.571

Germany: confirmed 48, recovered 16, existing 32
Italy: confirmed 655, deaths 17, recovered 45, existing 593
USA: confirmed 60, recovered 6, existing 54 - cases in Chicago, San Diego County, Santa Clara, Tampa, Seattle and more

All continents now show infections by this week.

Check the map with real time statistics by country plus development since start here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3910 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Here the actual chart on 7th red day in a row:



GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3911 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Dax short 9:30 to 16:30

entry @ 11952
exit @ 11952 - stopped out on entry
result 0 points

GFIs1

edit 10:00 - after 1hour more than 200 points down - extreme!

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3912 (permalink)
 lemons 
Market Wizard
Tallinn, Estonia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Trading: NAS100
 
lemons's Avatar
 
Posts: 942 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 1,825 given, 2,259 received


GFIs1 View Post
Actual corona infected persons worldwide: confirmed 83.389, deaths 2.858, recovered 36.571

Germany: confirmed 48, recovered 16, existing 32
Italy: confirmed 655, deaths 17, recovered 45, existing 593
USA: confirmed 60, recovered 6, existing 54 - cases in Chicago, San Diego County, Santa Clara, Tampa, Seattle and more

All continents now show infections by this week.

Check the map with real time statistics by country plus development since start here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html

GFIs1


Perspective.

Every year in Italy ca. 4000 dies on seasonal flu and in world appox 500 000.
Its crazy, maps and apps for corona and real time no 15 min delayed data

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to lemons for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3913 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


lemons View Post
Perspective.

Every year in Italy ca. 4000 dies on seasonal flu and in world appox 500 000.
Its crazy, maps and apps for corona and real time no 15 min delayed data

You are right - the flu infection kills mostly elderly persons as well as those that have severe medical problems.
If you see in Germany 3500 dead per year in the streets (lowest number since 2010) - the perspective is nearly back
GFIs1

Just fyi - Government of Switzerland has just announced that every event with more than 1000 people is forbidden from now as an exception rule to reduce contamination. Means no expos, no car show in Geneva, no carnival in Basel, no football with more than 1000 visitors, no sport events (ski marathon in the mountains with 15000 cross-country skiers...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3914 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

This week with extreme volatility showed the some limits in both my systems / threads here. Fortunately I lost only some points this week following the written rules. As I like the vola there is a lack of one rule - the TAKE PROFIT rule. My entry and exit points were fine, just some intermediate peaks could not be taken.
It is said that in the DAX a very far limit of 5% movement (normally down) is seen when markets are very red. On Friday a slip to 5% to previous day close had been seen. My active trade went with it (more than 200 points) to just reverse and all the points were gone. So I decided to bring in one rule more for my system in this thread:

Take profit rule: when price change from last close to actual reaches 5% during the day (and I am in trade) then buy on short or sell on long - means closing the position omitting the end time rule.

With this very rare occasion I will at least profit from the high risk moment.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3915 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

This week had 2 trades:
One negative with SL: -30 points
One neutral: 0 points

Weekly result -30 points

The Walzer trade brought 13 points

Total of both strategies: -17 points

Conclusion: the systems could not profit during this high vola week but did not make troubles either.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3916 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Dax short from 10:00 to 13:30

entry @ 12016
exit @ 11718
result 298 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3917 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 479 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 34 given, 425 received

congrats, another world-class trade

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tr8er for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3918 (permalink)
 harry737 
london, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: Stocks, Bonds
 
Posts: 142 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 183 given, 62 received

Excellent trade, why did you exit at 1pm ET rather than 5:30pm, as you previously use to.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to harry737 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3919 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


harry737 View Post
Excellent trade, why did you exit at 1pm ET rather than 5:30pm, as you previously use to.

Hi @harry737
was just the Monday rule for high vola... - I mean better to cash in nearly 300 points without big risk in a short time than to expose the trade for a longer time plus the entry of US markets in the afternoon under incertainty.
Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3920 (permalink)
 harry737 
london, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: Stocks, Bonds
 
Posts: 142 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 183 given, 62 received

Totally agree, have been a long time follower of your thread, and with US and Europe having different strengths in the economy. I wonder if you ever ran the comparison of PNL for 1pm, and Europe close 5/4:30pm.

Just going through some of your old posts

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to harry737 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3921 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


harry737 View Post
Totally agree, have been a long time follower of your thread, and with US and Europe having different strengths in the economy. I wonder if you ever ran the comparison of PNL for 1pm, and Europe close 5/4:30pm.

Just going through some of your old posts

well thanks for your input - yes! that is a new homework... I put it on my list.
for that I have no time right now - so I am most happy to have some working rules (since 2012) that help me to decide quick and dirty.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3922 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

We have to look quite back in this journal to find the best trade with the GFIs1 system and this journal.
It goes back to 2014 where we find the best trade: Wednesday 15th October gave 193 points. The week ended then with the best result in the journal with a total of 291 points.

Today's trade with 298 points is now the new record for one day here. For the weekly result we need to wait until end of week.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3923 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Dax short 9:30 to 12:00

entry @ 12024
exit @ 12054 (SL)
result -30 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3924 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

where has the title gone????

well here is a new one...

FRIDAY TRADE


DAX short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 11684
exit @ 11525
result 159 points

GFIs1

heading to 11312 eventually (maybe not within this trade )

looking back: a strong gap down is visible. Would have needed to get back to 11844 to close it which was not done as we had a high of the IB (9:00 to 9:30 of 11695) which is far away from the low of yesterday.

edit 10:26 - about the stops: the SL limit of 30 points is a farce when already IB (9:00 to 9:30) reached 97 points. Thus my today SL is 50 points which suits better on volatile days with 300+ points moves.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3925 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

TITLES???
If I want to put another "Reply to Thread" (button) there is no longer a field for the titles.
Seems that Corona took over or it is the start of a new "Black Friday"

Well - those things happen in our new world without announcements...

GFIs1

EDIT: if I press edit of my reply after having put in my last reply then a TITLE field comes up!
Upside down world - hehe...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3926 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

SWISS big Banks today

This morning prices of share of both Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse fell both lower than CHF 10.-
Which is the lowest ever for both together in the markets. All caused by uncertainties given by
actual Corona virus scenario.

Also the US government bonds have a new low of the interest rate with 0.81% at the
moment.

Be alerted: stay @ the sidelines if such volatility is too much for your trading strategy.

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3927 (permalink)
 harry737 
london, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: Stocks, Bonds
 
Posts: 142 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 183 given, 62 received


GFIs1 View Post
where has the title gone????

well here is a new one...

FRIDAY TRADE


DAX short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 11684
exit @
result

GFIs1

heading to 11312 eventually (maybe not within this trade )

looking back: a strong gap down is visible. Would have needed to get back to 11844 to close it which was not done as we had a high of the IB (9:00 to 9:30 of 11695) which is far away from the low of yesterday.

edit 10:26 - about the stops: the SL limit of 30 points is a farce when already IB (9:00 to 9:30) reached 97 points. Thus my today SL is 50 points which suits better on volatile days with 300+ points moves.

Early Edit 3:41am, hopefully getting in from a good night out. Ok forgot US times

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to harry737 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3928 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


harry737 View Post
Early Edit 3:41am, hopefully getting in from a good night out. Ok forgot US times

well good morning harry - this will be a volatile Friday - even for you!
Good trades

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3929 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 479 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 34 given, 425 received

yep huge vola + NFP day = fun or pain

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3930 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


tr8er View Post
yep huge vola + NFP day = fun or pain

You are right in some way - BUT - the vola is before US markets opened...
And the trade here will be stopped long before NFP will show muscles (if any).
The vola is because the markets are right under Corona control aka Cc which
shakes the companies to the bone.
Example: Lufthansa the biggest airline in central Europe has halted every 5th
airplane right now because of the low frequency today (what will be next 2 months?).
As we can see in Europe - so many large expositions (like car fairs, expo's for travel,
large sports events) had been canceled or postponed. These are facts and some
effects on the involved companies where no insurance is at stake will make even
large companies facing chapter 11 or have very negative numbers for 2020.
Even in the USA the shows for new gadgets (Apple et al) are not coming up as
planned - thus THE economy is slowing down. Reality! Some business like
worldwide cruises are on the way to evaporate.

To be clear: the virus has just started in western countries and is on the upside
concerning the effects on every production or service.
Please understand - I am not at all making troubles here - instead as we can read
out of the futures market(s) we have to face the reality. Or at least some of...
The markets are not only a pressure because of the virus but even more because of
false signals with ATH's in all indices which now show to have been a false flag!

As traders we just need to make the most of given signals.
That is the only base for survival.

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3931 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,479 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,060 given, 21,721 received


GFIs1 View Post
TITLES???
If I want to put another "Reply to Thread" (button) there is no longer a field for the titles.
Seems that Corona took over or it is the start of a new "Black Friday"

Well - those things happen in our new world without announcements...

GFIs1

EDIT: if I press edit of my reply after having put in my last reply then a TITLE field comes up!
Upside down world - hehe...

Actually, announced here (the usual place for announcements):

If it's an issue for you, you can comment there.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3932 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Just after finishing the short trade some look over the fence:

LUFTHANSA -6.1% down this morning...

No more explanations
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3933 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


bobwest View Post
Actually, announced here (the usual place for announcements):

If it's an issue for you, you can comment there.

Bob.

Thanks @bobwest
I missed this one - even I am reading carefully the changelog thread - as of 2 days ago I was really not aware.
No problem so far!

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3934 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Weekly result

This week had 3 trades
One negative (SL) -30 points
two positive 298 + 153 points

Weekly result 421 points

Which is best week in this journal.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3935 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 479 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 34 given, 425 received


GFIs1 View Post
You are right in some way - BUT - the vola is before US markets opened...
And the trade here will be stopped long before NFP will show muscles (if any).
The vola is because the markets are right under Corona control aka Cc which
shakes the companies to the bone.
Example: Lufthansa the biggest airline in central Europe has halted every 5th
airplane right now because of the low frequency today (what will be next 2 months?).
As we can see in Europe - so many large expositions (like car fairs, expo's for travel,
large sports events) had been canceled or postponed. These are facts and some
effects on the involved companies where no insurance is at stake will make even
large companies facing chapter 11 or have very negative numbers for 2020.
Even in the USA the shows for new gadgets (Apple et al) are not coming up as
planned - thus THE economy is slowing down. Reality! Some business like
worldwide cruises are on the way to evaporate.

To be clear: the virus has just started in western countries and is on the upside
concerning the effects on every production or service.
Please understand - I am not at all making troubles here - instead as we can read
out of the futures market(s) we have to face the reality. Or at least some of...
The markets are not only a pressure because of the virus but even more because of
false signals with ATH's in all indices which now show to have been a false flag!

As traders we just need to make the most of given signals.
That is the only base for survival.

Good trades
GFIs1

Hi,

yes of course I saw that you will close at 13:30 your/our time. This was just a reminder, if somebody has forgotten that today is NFP, the reason why the market moves is crystal clear. Great trade and great/monster week!! congrats

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tr8er for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3936 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

NFP (Non Farm Payroll US) were quite good!

RESULT and reaction in the DAX:
DOWN - which shows that there are no buyers in the market(s) in any business - not a good sign indeed.

Influence of US markets on the German DAX seem to be shrinking - at least since the corona virus actuality.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3937 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 479 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 34 given, 425 received


GFIs1 View Post
NFP (Non Farm Payroll US) were quite good!

RESULT and reaction in the DAX:
DOWN - which shows that there are no buyers in the market(s) in any business - not a good sign indeed.

Influence of US markets on the German DAX seem to be shrinking - at least since the corona virus actuality.

GFIs1


Regarding influence, I use it the other way: I'm an ES trader and always watch what the FDAX is doing (except some Germany specific days, where the FDAX does his own thing, it works great)

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tr8er for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3938 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Illustration of today's trade:



GFIs1

PS: just to state that the down movement has not at all stopped on this level here. Be prepared for the next weeks!

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3939 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


GFIs1 View Post
Just after finishing the short trade some look over the fence:

LUFTHANSA -6.1% down this morning...

No more explanations
GFIs1


Lufthansa announced this afternoon:


To cut 50% of the capacity in flights from right now.
Source (german): https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Lufthansa-streicht-50-Prozent-ihrer-Kapazitaet-article21624768.html

This is just the start of the disaster - airports, freight, tourism etc. - for everything involved.
Those changes in the business plan of all annexed companies will be hefty and are not at all priced in now in the DAX or other.

It is not clear what over the weekend from different airlines will be official - at least on Monday a main trend in the Indices seems now given (down).

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3940 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Weekly start - a glimpse on the indices - time 06:50 CET

Sidney - 7.4%

Hang Seng - 3.8%

Nikkei - 6.1%

Gold > 1700/ounce

US Oil - 30% means actual price now $30/barrel (50% down since start of this year)

Looks like the DAX will start much lower as well. - The down gap might kill the mentioned goal (11312) from last Friday in a rush. **
Germany has put a immediate action package for the economy as special short time help with 12.4 billion EUR.
Stay tuned on the BLACK MONDAY of today...

GFIs1 wishes good trades

** edit 7:35 - which showed to be true

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3941 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

DAX starts today pre cash (7:30) @ 10916

This is a level we had last time on Feb 8 2019...

GFIs1

edit 8:15 - 10700 killed - which is last level of Jan 4th 2019
edit 8:50 - XDAX (future) - 7,9%

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3942 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

About the oil market war

The big 3 oil producers, USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia could not find a common goal in pricing over the weekend. Saudi Arabia did not want to reduce production to stabilize the prices in a already falling market.
The result now came over night in a 30% crash in all the prices of the big 3.

Price of US oil is now 50% lower than January 2020...

Of course the decarbonization in the industry given by the climate change and strict climate goals will force industry to get out of oil, gaz, coal etc. - Means that the overall consumption of oil is on its way down anyway.

What are the effects of this oil war?
Clients can profit of lower air fares, lower prices for cars & trucks, much lower prices for heating oil and more. This does not mean that the total consumption will jump up as limits are already given on the demand side.

The good thing for the climate:
US fracking oil will fall out soon as the costs for the production are now much too high for a profitable business...

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3943 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

About recession in the world - Part II

Given my detailed overview from February 23 (2 weeks ago) here - please reread:



I have to adjust the importance of the Corona Virus CoVid19 with its strong influence on the markets since then. As long as flights are cancelled, harbors are working just half or none, whole parts of countries are under quarantine and borders between countries are closed the development of the economy is totally out of order. People are not traveling, have to stay at home for home office, schools and universities closed, no sports events nearly worldwide, no large expositions for goods, art, travel etc. - the trouble is here!
To be clear - all the managements are not prepared (not even speaking of the governments) to take out a plan for a crisis or to decide wisely in a alerted world.

The actual situation is not stabilized nor can we overview the development for even the next 2 weeks!
Ah yes - finally this is not repaired with money from ECB or FED or states as this derailed train now is blocked for longer.

Stay alerted - but be not pessimistic
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3944 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Monday trade

DAX opened cash 9:00 @ 10694
Friday's low was @ 11452 which gives a gap of 758 points!**

A trade is foreseen with a special rule for very high vola.

DAX short 10:30 to 17:30
entry @ 10948
exit @ 10666
result 282 points

GFIs1

**my gap point counting is always from the low of previous day and not of the closing price

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3945 (permalink)
 JohnS 
Bamberg, Germany
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: IB, SierraCharts data
Trading: MES, FDXM
 
Posts: 1,091 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 15,031 given, 2,591 received

Wow, DAX is back to Greece Crisis style volatility !


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to JohnS for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3946 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received

Excellent trade!! Very well done


GFIs1 View Post
DAX short 10:30 to 17:30
entry @ 10948
exit @ 10666
result 282 points



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3947 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Where will the DAX head in the next days?

Here TWO highly possible scenarios that are not far from reality - as the last interpretations and walking forward scenarios had already outlined:

Next dive to: 9866.

Means to kill 10k again from top down:

Second dive to 8812 possible - depending on the circumstances shown within the next 2 months.
Of course this will stir up many markets. The melted wins will take out a mass of traders and wash
away some "free money"-traders from the markets. Motto "back to the roots!"

We will see. The actual price level of course is not the end of this actual down movement.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3948 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,479 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,060 given, 21,721 received


GFIs1 View Post
Influence of US markets on the German DAX seem to be shrinking - at least since the corona virus actuality.

GFIs1


tr8er View Post
Regarding influence, I use it the other way: I'm an ES trader and always watch what the FDAX is doing (except some Germany specific days, where the FDAX does his own thing, it works great)

I wanted to comment on this -- for US traders, who are basically too US-centric sometimes.

I recently concluded an experiment where I got up early (2:30 AM, US Eastern time) so I could get into the US equity futures while the European traders were dominant in the US market (the early part of the often-mentioned "European session"). The rationale was that a lot goes on in ES and YM before US traders are even awake, and that European impact on ES is much greater than we generally think, if for no other reason than it happens, or begins to happen, sooner.

For example, why are there opening gaps? We say it's because of "overnight" trading moving the market ahead of the "open," but it's not "overnight" for the Europeans who are doing the trading and are responsible for the moving.

I think traders take the "regular" in "Regular Trading Hours" a little too seriously. As if it's all that really matters.

I had to stop the experiment because changing my wake/sleep schedule that much basically wrecked me, but it otherwise was a success.

So, there is obviously a serious impact of US economic and market events on Europe, but the reverse is definitely true too. The world is not as small as it used to be, and countries are not as isolated and self-contained as they were. (Which brings up the virus topic again in a way, but that's not exactly my point here.)

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3949 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Good morning @bobwest

Thanks a lot for your input. It is the truth!
My reflection on this theme is not an offense nor personally meant. It is just my point of view over a long period when I traveled a lot to USA into many different areas (eg. in the 80'ies to attend the key notes with Steve Jobs every year when MacWorld started). "Where are you from?" - "Switzerland" - oh nice, SWEDEN a lovely country"... Small talk as usual. Standard knowledge from nearly every US citizen. Swiss friends of mine who own apartments in Boston, houses at the beach of Woodshole and Martha's Vineyard, another one in Florida, tell me the same.
The core lies in the narrowness of the American. He can not see over the fence as this one is so far away in this large country. The main problem lies in the language! Do you speak or understand more than one language? No, because English is widely spread. To learn about habits one has to speak more than one language. Here in Switzerland we sit in a country with 4 different official languages. In school 2 or 3 languages to learn is a standard.
Another one are the media: do you watch a German Channel on TV? No? That could be helpful, especially for a trader exactly to see and to learn what happened in the world before US opens. On my side I watched yesterday and today CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC plus the development of Corona on Italian and French and German channels. The main information for me come from two German channels that are focused on trading. With those info's one is open to get a bigger picture which as an important base for own decisions.
So:
Learning to trade is learning to "feel" the markets (not only the one where I am interested). There are so many things underneath that influence the movement of the markets. They are very depending on each other even over the continents. The only thing that rests are the patterns that repeat from time to time. Like the black Monday moves yesterday. Given the learning curve one can do quite good in a explosive market with that knowledge. Trading is hard work to learn and often connected to a big investment before things run smoothly.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3950 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

In my post written on Jan 3rd 2020 I mentioned that we have a double top in the market, some company numbers ahead for two months.

Read here:

Where are we today?

Exactly there with a Monday when markets crashed around the globe...
Predicting bigger moves needs a good feeling for the charts to feel the overheated situation as well as the boring sideways weeks.
To sum it up: the interesting days came with last week to today. The next development has to be carefully analyzed.

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3951 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,479 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 49,060 given, 21,721 received


GFIs1 View Post
Good morning @bobwest

Thanks a lot for your input. It is the truth!
My reflection on this theme is not an offense nor personally meant.

...

The core lies in the narrowness of the American. He can not see over the fence as this one is so far away in this large country. The main problem lies in the language! Do you speak or understand more than one language? No, because English is widely spread.

I could go on and on about American attitudes toward the world, and many would probably agree. And in no sense would I be in any way anti-American, just aware of our isolation and our essentially parochial attitudes on many things. America, after all, can be thought of as a very big island that few people ever get off of, and seldom meet anyone whose language we need to know, or whose culture we need to know about. I am, regardless, very happy to be from here and to live here.... but everyone, ideally, should be able to feel that way about their home, and I hope most people do.

But my point in that post was not the relative isolation of the US (which is funny considering its role in the wide world), but simply that US markets really are connected very tightly to the rest of the world. If someone is seeking an edge (and who is not?), then knowing this may be helpful to them.

Bob.

------------------

Edit: just to be clear, since we're moving a bit in other directions, this was the point I was making:


bobwest View Post
I recently concluded an experiment where I got up early (2:30 AM, US Eastern time) so I could get into the US equity futures while the European traders were dominant in the US market (the early part of the often-mentioned "European session"). The rationale was that a lot goes on in ES and YM before US traders are even awake, and that European impact on ES is much greater than we generally think, if for no other reason than it happens, or begins to happen, sooner.

...

I had to stop the experiment because changing my wake/sleep schedule that much basically wrecked me, but it otherwise was a success.

So, there is obviously a serious impact of US economic and market events on Europe, but the reverse is definitely true too....


When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3952 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Thanks @bobwest for your open communication.

There are obviously so many different lifestyles and meanings about the most important things in life.
Thanks to this adorable platform fio that spans around the world with many traders of unnumbered countries that are united to discuss so many main themes as well as sometimes the problems to trade in their home country.
Happy to see the development and hoping for a good continuation with the goal to learn from each other.

Have a wonderful time
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3953 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Wednesday trade

Dax short 10:30 to 16:30

entry @ 10685
exit @ 10403
result 282 points

GFIs1

looks like we had this number already...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3954 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Thursday

Looks not good today for all indices: Asia down - German DAX future more down to yesterday's closing.

New announcement from USA to halt every travel from Europe to USA from Friday midnight for 4 weeks!

This will give a deep red day.

GFIs1

edit 7:22 - SMI (Swiss Market Index) will fall to 8768 for start at 9:00 which is -4.2% to closing of yesterday. Last time the SMI was lower than 9000 is more than one year back.

edit 7:45 - DAX pre open already @ 9810
My chart from March 9 shows 2 steps down: 9866 & 8812: the first step is here...

edit 14:05 - ECB decision has no positive influence on the DAX. Actual price ~9590. Tendency down.
The level of 8812 is not far away - let's see on Friday

edit 14:40 - DAX reaches 9285... which is more than 10% down

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3955 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Thursday trade

DAX back to levels of 2016... - ECB decision this afternoon

DAX short 10:30 to 17:30
entry @ 9755
exit @ 9805 (SL)
result -50 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3956 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

What if Scenario

The down dynamic shows a strong momentum. As the prices are not to stop in the next days or weeks.
Given the situation of this March 2020 we might quickly get back in the index DAX to the numbers of 2012. Which means quite a shocking crash. All the discussion of new ATH's have been vanished.

Have a look at the possible moves within the next days. It is just a projection of a next support in the monthly DAX. We need to look back quite a lot until 2012:



GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3957 (permalink)
 Jaap8242 
Netherlands
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: Infinity Futures
Trading: FGBL
 
Posts: 71 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 73 given, 69 received



Before reaching 8000, you can expect support at 8228, High in Dec 2007.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jaap8242 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3958 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received

Thanks for your insights, always a pleasure and some good guidance for my trades.
Are you expecting a large pullback first, or going straight to the 8000-8200?

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3959 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


Deetee View Post
Thanks for your insights, always a pleasure and some good guidance for my trades.
Are you expecting a large pullback first, or going straight to the 8000-8200?

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

Thanks @Deetee

Prices are in the middle of nowhere. The threat to the economy worldwide is at a beginning, the scenarios for the rest of 2020 is not even on paper nor given in the heads of the managers. The damage done is not only financial but it is the real destruction of a working machine. To repair this I count with years to come. Central banks have no more means to support with money just for the daily needs - indeed they have no more ideas to help. Money has no longer the power it had. The time of eternal money has halted abruptly.
To answer your question: A pullback (not even speaking of "large") is not in sight: 95% of investments have lost in very short time. A lot. It is clear that this lost money is no longer there for being reinvested. We have to face reality. Now.
And no - I am not a pessimist - but I can see signals and sometimes can feel where the journey heads to.

Good trades!
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3960 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

DAX Friday

starts around the closing of yesterday. Asian Markets closed this morning with new lows.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3961 (permalink)
 harry737 
london, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: Stocks, Bonds
 
Posts: 142 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 183 given, 62 received

Think it would make more sense to close exchanges, like being on the Monopoly board, everyone goes to jail or isolation, till further notice. Otherwise this system which we know is aesthetic, could break and we really dont want that

Stay calm and look at the facts, slight over reaction cancelling the Players.

Cheltenham racing festival still going 60,000 pissed English, Scottish and Irish drinking Guinness...

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to harry737 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3962 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Friday trade

DAX short 11:00 to 17:30

entry @ 9462
exit @ 9512 (SL)**
result -50 points

GFIs1

Good trades

** Germany has announced to flood the industry with extra money, taxes postponed and no interest rates for credits...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3963 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Weekly results

This week had 4 trades:
2 positive (282 + 282 points)
2 negative (SL) (-50 - 50 points)

Weekly result 464 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3964 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received


GFIs1 View Post
Weekly result 464 points

I believe that's about half your annual average Congrats, great job!!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3965 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

TwoAndAHalfMonthsResultsFOR2020

Just a short overview about the cumulated results of this thread:

Jan 2020 184 points
Feb 2020 190 points
Mar 2020 891 points (just 2 weeks)

Total points 1265

Trades 28
per trade 45.2 points


Normal trades (Year 2018 of this journal) 15,6 points per trade with this system
and with Walzer 2018 (double-)trades 56,6 points per trade

GFIs1

Could stop now for the year as it was a most efficient run!

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3966 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Buy and hold strategy 2020 in comparison:

Given the plot of buying a short on the DAX on Jan 2 2020 for 13225
and selling it today in the middle of the trading day for 9750
we would have earned 3475 points.

But taking a short on January in the midst of new ATHs every month is not probable.
As well as taking the risks and hard conditions (depending on the broker) overnight is
not highly probable.

I am still happy with the plot of this strategy with daily trades that normally last
half a day.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3967 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

DAX in the new week

Looking back to my post of last Monday with outlook to the prices - we have just landed at the mentioned second "touch point"


Today DAX started Pre-Cash 07:30 with a new low and down gap of 8859, passing 8812 and then low of 8766!

Of course the blocked countries in Europe and other continents have their effects on the markets.
Not even the historic new low in the US-interests the FED announced yesterday (0,5-1%) could not stop European markets.

edit 8:00 - Nikkei -2,5%, Hang Seng -3,96%, DAX low @ 8717
edit 8:15 - DAX 8527 means >-10%

edit 9:00 - DAX open 8661
edit 9:30 - DAX 8443 - down 291 points

We might see <8000 this morning as announced last week...

Update follows.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3968 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Monday trade

DAX

No trade today - cause - conflicting rules
or you may say that the trader can't read his very timetable
Well - time will tell - things are not very comprehensive:
US pours billions into the markets (lower interest), Germany a bunch
of 500 Mio as a first step in the virus chaos.
AND no effect can be seen in the markets...

GFIs1

Good trades!

edit 17:50 - long was the right strategy... just the SL-settings would have been in the way.
So staying at the sidelines was a very good decision.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3969 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Where will the DAX head?

Some highly probable scenario here:



As the third "island" (means prices that do not close gaps) in the daily DAX could be seen
- some visible signals are here to predict the path of this index within the next days.

Additional resistance above today's development in the chart shows that lower lows are
highly probable.

We will see tomorrow and before weekend if this scenario (despite the money flood)
will take place. I am pretty sure about!

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3970 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Tuesday

Looking back to yesterday: Dow Jones had a black Monday with -12,9% down.
Dax was -5,3% down.

This morning Dax started precash on the high of yesterday and jumped up over 9000 points again, to close the gap to yesterday. Not sure what happens today with the DAX.

edit 9:00 - DAX open 9137 - up gap to yesterday

Updates follow:

edit 12:30 - VW and Airbus will close production centers in Europe from Friday evening...
- the stock exchange of the Philippines has halted any activity until further notice


GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3971 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Tuesday trade

DAX short 10:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8561
exit @ 8591 stopped it manually because the development is sideways
result -30 points

GFIs1

edit 12:35 - will be interesting when US stock exchanges will open today - the scenario to of a reaction to yesterday's slump is possible but not necessarily strong and enduring.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3972 (permalink)
 tr8er 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeNavigator, BookMap
Trading: ES, CL, 6E, 6B
 
Posts: 479 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 34 given, 425 received

Yep, yes the US-open will be interesting.

But as you can see during the European-open, US index-futures followed the European markets (FDAX, EuroStoxx50...)

US index-futures were halted because of a Limit-Up situation, but after the European sell-off, they started the sell-off (with a little lag) as well and the ES went down 130 points from the Limit-Up halt.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tr8er for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3973 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Wednesday

DAX started this morning on the lows of yesterday's range. 7:30 - 8439

After the bad Europe-news from yesterday some lower prices today (Wednesday short) might happen.
Just to wait for the cash open.

edit 9:15 - Open 9:00 - 8582 - then up to 8638 - now 100 points down from high...

Good trades!
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3974 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Wednesday trade

DAX short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 8578
exit @ 8495
result 83 points

8690 might be touched before turning, so SL wider than normal...
what are 100 points these days?
Of course in this period we see a lot of algorithm trading. Thus this high vola.

edit 14:44 - stopped at yellow line - to prevent from heavy US influence and vola

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3975 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

An Ichimoku point of view of the trade:



See the details in this 30m chart:

Kumo above price
indecision in IB: open and close despite vola of 121 points very near together
some sideways until
yellow line comes down (like a SL indicator)

Trade was foreseen until 15:30 - where a direction change might occur.
We will see.

11:47
GFIs1

edit 13:20 - just to be clear: the GFIs1 system is based only on rules for nearly every plot depending on IB of every weekday. It is a pattern entry / exit system for intraday trades during cash hours. (With a hell of rules)

If you see my charts you see them normally with the Ichimoku indicator. This one doesn't influence the given trades nor in time or stops. This one is just helpful for some levels (lines of the Ichimoku) and to see if the rules are not conflicting.
If one wants to know the bigger picture using this special trend following indicator with forward and backward looking options then it is very important to go from daily down to 4h and 1h - and trading in the 30m chart. Just to avoid being caught.

edit 14:40 - the reversal came with force already 14:30 but we were prepared for it.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3976 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Thursday

Evening low was lower than 8200 in the DAX (future) which shows the trend to kill support @ 8k mentioned in previous posts. 8200 was a longtime a hard resistance line in the past of the DAX. When this line will fall then the 8k will be quickly passed.
Will be interesting where we start on Thursday.
Because overnight movements in Asia might bring the missing piece in the picture.

More to comment here in some hours.

edit 7:00
DOW 19899 -6.3%
Nasdaq 6990 -4.7%

Nikkei 16616 -0.8%
Hang Seng 21585 -3.3%
Sydney 4809 -3.8%

Gold 1477 -0.6%
US Oel 23.7 +3.3%

/$ 1.09 -0.2%


Night session brings 750 billion Euro for bonds: ECB takes the Bazooka - "There are no limits"
...not sure if that comes on time and will have positive effects on the DAX

Wallstreet I: the premises will be closed from coming Monday because to traders were confirmed to have COVID19. Electronic trading will then be the only platform.
Wallstreet II: ALL (big) profits made since Trump's start have now been erased - within THREE WEEKS...

edit 7:45 DAX started 7:30 lower than yesterday's low @ 8324 - right after it closed the gap to the low
edit 8:50 DAX precash up to reach 8600 for a short time again - despite the ECB announcement not to the high (8670) of yesterday... which doesn't give the picture of a strong green day

DAX OPEN @ 8454

Trading rules here told me to not trade as the hi/lo yesterday is in the "non trade zone". Means sideways and no pattern.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3977 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Friday

Corona spreading wider - action against around the world in high gear - Italy new leader of virus victims ahead of China.

DAX will start with a up gap - price around 9000.

Attention - today triple witch @ 13h!! - this is why the prices were pushed up as the open futures are too far away from foreseen goal(s).

DAX open 9:00 - 8920, IB Hi @ 9183, means IB HiLo of 263 points

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3978 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Friday trade

Triple witch day 13h closing the March 20 contract - for Futures using the June 20 contract

DAX short from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9036
exit @ 8951
result 85 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3979 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Bull or Bear - who wins more?

Are you thinking it doesn't matter when one day goes up 10% and the next 10% down?

Just a short insight - Some food for thought

Given that we have free investing money (reserves are excluded here), then one day goes X% up and the next X% down, every day ONE move with the full available money: what will be at the end of two weeks with 10 trades?

The short view is: We have 100 to put. First day we make 10% up. Gives a new sum to invest of 110. So we take this to put it short and lose the "same" 10%. Now we just have a total of 99.

Same procedure with some very different moves we had in the last 3 weeks in the indices to play with the numbers here:



Surprised who has won?
Now we can see why so many traders are quickly at their financial limits. Eventually with margin calls.
Think about

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3980 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

DAX triple witch today - the chart



GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3981 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Weekly results

This week had 3 trades
one negative -30 points
two positive 83 + 85 points

Weekly total 138 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3982 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received

Great weekly result! I'm always happy to read you valueable posts, thanks for that.
Stay safe!!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3983 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Monday

Dax gapped down again into region of last Thursday - means -361 points to low of Friday @ 8:00

Indices:
Hang Seng -2,1%
Nikkei 1,2%

Gold -0.16%



GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3984 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Monday Trade

Sideways on lower level than Friday.
Rules say long.

DAX long 10:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8581
exit @ 8928
result 347 points


GFIs1

Goal is 8739 - REACHED @ 13:05 - **a nice 15m candle...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3985 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received

Great timing!!!! Congrats!!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3986 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Acknowledgement of the rules

Not unhappy about the lost points (of 181p) in the last candle (running above 9k) as the trades are always taken/closed on 30m
not unhappy to remark that the rules still work since 2012
unhappy to have overlooked a special rule that wanted to start long on 10:00 instead of 10:30 - left 70 pts on table

That was the trade of the journal - thanks to a most unusual market

Wishing you good trades!
GFIs1

PS: a final note - the trend of short mentioned has not been vanished by today's large package of the German Government. Be still alerted to see prices lower than 8k before markets are on a stable basis again!

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3987 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received



GFIs1

PS: haven't seen a single 30m candle with hi/lo of 513 points in the DAX during trading cash hours... you?

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3988 (permalink)
jourdain
Amsterdam + the Netherlands
 
 
Posts: 2 since Jan 2020
Thanks: 65 given, 4 received


GFIs1 View Post
Monday Trade

Sideways on lower level than Friday.
Rules say long.

DAX long 10:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8581
exit @ 8928
result 347 points


GFIs1

Goal is 8739 - REACHED @ 13:05 - **a nice 15m candle...

What an achievement!! I feel like this record score will last for a while.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jourdain for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3989 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


jourdain View Post
What an achievement!! I feel like this record score will last for a while.

Hi @jourdain - welcome on board of the fio members

Happy to read a first post of a member in my thread.
If you have much time left over during corona lock down you might read the whole journal here...
Of course not!
The first post plus the last part during those troubled waters is enough.
You might open your own journal to get a lot of feedback.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3990 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Tuesday

This morning we see US and Asian stock exchanges up.

Looks like the DAX opens as well around yesterday's high:



Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3991 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

The bigger picture

Best to watch it from far - means in the daily chart - to get where the journey might head. Some explanation here with a chart and further in some important points about industry during and after Corona.



In the chart we can see that a first down given a reversal. Watching the Kumo for the next weeks you can see a steep down movement that blocks price from "wading through". The down will start from end of month. That might lead to a next wave down which I assume to be lower than previous low because of the thickening Kumo above the price. Such leads to lower lows - so 8k might be easily taken out.

View from the economic perspective:

industry production, transport, goods movement, fairs / expos, travel and holiday with hotels & car renting etc. have been harshly reduced, some of them halted totally
companies are in trouble - especially in liquidity terms
some companies will get out of the market with all the hard costs that are not eliminated during the governmental pause
Even the helicopter money for people and special support programs for companies will not pay the damage done
Problems to get easily some money plus a hassle of papers to submit will threat the many small companies
When the block down will stop, the normality will not be back easily - the tempo to re-establish the normal pace of production, transport etc. - everyone needs to recover from that pause and start from near 0!
the unemployment rate will rise sharply very soon - as all the companies need to reduce their expenses
List not complete

Conclusion - this crisis will have a long arm into the future. Thus the financial markets will stay longer in the lows we will see in the next weeks (highly probable) as there might be even a second wave down to erase more historic wins.
As one says that a child burned by the fire many investors in the markets as well and "gamblers" will stay away from the trading. Means lower volumes will be ahead. Bound with lower liquidity.

Just my point of view
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3992 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Wednesday

DAX will open around 10000 - which is quite a up gap

DOW + 11.4% - largest up day since 1933!
NASD +8.1%
NIKK +8%
JANG +3.3%
SYDN +5.3%
US Oel +3.7%
Gold -1.6%

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3993 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Wednesday trade

DAX short 10:00 to 14:30

entry @ 10050
exit @ 10080 (SL)
result -30 points

GFIs1

development not consistent...
Price seems to close first gap above

Good trades!

edit
I: with a SL of 120 points the trade could have survived
This is the result of the high vola in these weeks

II: IFO numbers this morning showed a crash - from 96 points in February down to 86,1% in March which is lowest since 2009

III: The German support package for companies is discussed today in parliament. It is nearly clear that the total sum will not be enough...

IV: with the SL of 120pts (see I) the close @ 9617 would have given 433 points. For today the risk was high with the ongoing news during the trade. So nothing really lost - not every highest high and lowest low can be taken anyway.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3994 (permalink)
 Deetee 
Amsterdam
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader / IB /Bookmap
Broker: EdgeClear / InteractiveBrokers / Rithmic / dxFeed
Trading: DAX / (M)NQ / (M)ES
 
Posts: 212 since Jul 2019
Thanks: 1,489 given, 337 received

Next time better. Enough profits in the last weeks to cover those small losses
Normally you start at 10:30 on IFO day. Can I ask why today 10:00 was the entry time?
Thanks,
Dennis

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Deetee for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3995 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received


Deetee View Post
Next time better. Enough profits in the last weeks to cover those small losses
Normally you start at 10:30 on IFO day. Can I ask why today 10:00 was the entry time?
Thanks,
Dennis

Normally yes - but with high up gap and announcement day I have some overruling special rules that show different start and end time. Today you were good with 10:30

Good trades
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3996 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Thursday trade

as yesterday's trade was dead in the beginning - here a trade for today:

DAX long 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9626
exit @ 9596 (SL)
result -30 points
went in last 30m into SL...

GFIs1

edit 14:25 - just after the "trade" the DAX seems to have finally found the proposed up...

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3997 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Friday trade

On the day where USA is the new record holder of Covid-19 with ranking one:
Looks like we get a classical Friday trade... well it isn't the case:

DAX long 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9880
exit @ 9790 (SL)
result -90 points

GFIs1

...the sideways moves are not really interesting.
Looking forward to Mo/Tue next week when we will have end of month.
Happy weekend!

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3998 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

Weekly result

This week had 4 trades
one positive 347 points
three negative (-30 -30 -90) =-150 points
Weekly result 197 points

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #3999 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,444 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,321 given, 11,407 received

About direction rules

This morning things were clear: just a reversal on the first IB candle. Direction short.
Then in last 90 seconds a overrule came in that said - long.
Such a high level rule in this case I had just 2 times in 8 years.
So I dropped it for Fridays.

Of course the rule combinations are not really long tested as such high vola rarely occurs.
For sure clear when a single 30m candle can make 300 points or even the double...

As written in my rule sheet: "in case of uncertainty: take the normal rule. If still not sure
then stay at the sidelines."

All fine - the weekly result still is good.
GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4000 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,068 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,534 given, 98,494 received

@GFIs1 would you please come on and participate in our webinar series "An Afternoon With".. ?
@tturner86 can schedule it. Say yes

Sent using the futures.io mobile app

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


Last Updated on May 7, 2021


Upcoming Webinars and Events

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

May 7

The Cold Hard Truth: Maybe I Am Not Good Enough w/Chris Gray @ Earn2Trade

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts