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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #301 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Price movements in the last days from 10:00 to 11:00 in the opposite
direction was strong (yesterday in 30 minutes more than 10% of
overallday volume) and not expected.
As the price is in the daily cloud since 10 days and the system has
hit three times in a row the stoploss - there will be no more DAX trade
for this week: Rule No 1 protect your capital!
Normal price behaviour will be back soon.

GFIs1

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  #302 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Price movements in the last days from 10:00 to 11:00 in the opposite
direction was strong (yesterday in 30 minutes more than 10% of
overallday volume) and not expected.
As the price is in the daily cloud since 10 days and the system has
hit three times in a row the stoploss - there will be no more DAX trade
for this week: Rule No 1 protect your capital!
Normal price behaviour will be back soon.

GFIs1

Would you mind posting a chart to go with? I'm a visual person, so I always find it a lot easier when I can see what people refer to...

vvhg

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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  #303 (permalink)
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vvhg View Post
Would you mind posting a chart to go with? I'm a visual person, so I always find it a lot easier when I can see what people refer to...

vvhg

Hi vvhg - here we go:
First chart with the high bullish volume on 10 to 10:30 bar - here for Thursday:



same happened on Tuesday 10:30 and 11:00 with even higher volume here:



In the next post you get the chart of Ichimoku cloud of the daily Dax

GFIs1

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Here we go with the bigger picture - Dax resides in the bullish Kumo - so some patterns for the day do not
work as expected.



Expecting the price to go out of the cloud above - and pass the level of 6600 quite quickly.

GFIs1

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  #305 (permalink)
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Another red week

took three trades (Monday to Wednesday) then stopped for the week
three times stoploss of 30 points

weekly result minus 90 points

GFIs1

PS: "Sell in may - and go away"?

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  #306 (permalink)
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Started Dax long from 09:30 to 12:00

entry @ 6556

exit @ 6547

result minus 9 points

risk medium

GFIs1

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  #307 (permalink)
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Out of experience of the past 6 months I am giving more information
when taking a daily trade. The risk factor from low / medium / high
is already installed.
A next preview in the actual developing movements - speaking
of the morning opening I will give within the next two weeks:
There will be a prediction how the intraday movement will
proceed and evolve - chop chop for no big move - trending for
moving in a direction - and explode for some break out.
Hope to find the good tone in this concert :-)
Might help to think about risk management, setting SL and others.

GFIs1

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  #308 (permalink)
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Today a Dax short from 10:00 to 13:00

entry @ 6590

exit @ 6581

result plus 9 points

risk medium

daily outlook: epecting closing the gap - then trending further up Gap is closed - upmove possible

GFIs1

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  #309 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
13th of July: Here we go with the bigger picture - Expecting the price to go out of the cloud above - and pass the level of 6600 quite quickly.

GFIs1

-> had been passed now - heading next for 6666 and then 6750 soon
GFIs1

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  #310 (permalink)
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Taking a Dax short from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6597

exit @ 6593

result @ plus 4 points

risk low

outlook: downmove today before going higher - price sitting on VWAP yesterday in the afternoon - and then
the upmove - here we go


GFIs1

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  #311 (permalink)
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-> had been passed now - heading next for 6666 and then 6750 soon

..yesterday's foreseen scenario continued to develop today - bullish - 6666 already passed - 6750 in sight
some resistance around 6850 to have in mind

GFIs1

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  #312 (permalink)
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Today a Dax short from 10:00 to 13:30

entry @ 6716

exit @ 6746 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk medium

outlook: expecting a sideways day today with a major move up tomorrow

GFIs1

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  #313 (permalink)
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Dax upmove today without closing the gap til' now.
Level of 6750 broken too (high of 6771).
Will be interesting for the coming days.
Still having 6850 as resistance level.

GFIs1

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  #314 (permalink)
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Today a Dax short from 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 6747

exit @ 6664

result plus 83 points

risk high (weak signal / tight stop) still in the trade - sorry - SL update was not possible today as futures.io (formerly BMT)
was down..
Will have an extra post with view on the daily chart to explain


outlook - upmove previewed for today happened yesterday - expecting some retracement now (level 6666) reached

GFIs1

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  #315 (permalink)
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This week had the full five trades:

Three trades red (1 SL of 30 points,
one trade minus 9 and one minus 1 point
Two green trades - one with plus 4 points
and a runner with plus 83 points

Weekly result plus 47 points

Total points twittered since week one: plus 624 points

GFIs1

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  #316 (permalink)
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Today the upmovement in the Dax was not discussed by me in detail.
To get some more insight - I was using the daily chart of the Dax with
a fib spiral - the upper resistance level was to find for today @ 6780.
That would be the maximum stretch for a stop in our daily Dax trade.
Admitting that the start of todays intraday Dax movement for a friday
was not really fitting the normal plan - our bigger picture shows that
the turning point was @ 6781 and the time window was only shifted
two hours to the right.
So - even being to early - the trade was a runner.
Here the bigger picture (part of the daily chart):



Hope this helps!
Have a great weekend

GFIs1

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Dax short from 09:30 to 14:00

entry @ 6549

exit @ 6504

result plus 45 points

risk - medium

outlook - already good volume in the first 30 minutes
further downmove expected - next target price around 6500 - support @ 6440

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
further downmove expected - next target price around 6500 - support @ 6440

GFIs1

...getting back up on mentioned "support @ 6440"
with US closing on the Dax future.
Was quite an interesting day.
Looking forward to the coming days :-)

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
...getting back up on mentioned "support @ 6440"
with US closing on the Dax future.
GFIs1

The today's scenario was quite predictible - as the Monday morning started with
a big gap down - it was obvious the price had to move up intrady to the red
TenkanSen and eventually moves down to the blue KijunSen.
The movement underneath KijunSen happened as an exaggeration as the US
market opened. For the Dax future closing (US) the price came back on KijunSen.




Now price is back withinin the blue bullish cloud again. Expecting some move out
north within a week.

GFIs1

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Today NO trade as yesterday's move (Hi/ Low) exceeded the
range that the system allows.

GFIs1

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  #321 (permalink)
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Dax long from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6397

exit @ 6445

result plus 48 points

risk medium

outlook: expecting some recovery from the last red days here if a breakout is seen target 6575

GFIs1

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  #322 (permalink)
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Today Dax short from 10:30 to 12:00

entry @ 6370

exit @ 6342

result plus 28 points

risk - medium

outlook - no high volatilty today expected - some drive could come tomorrow

GFIs1

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  #323 (permalink)
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Following your thread/journal since yesterday and so far respect

Do you have a statistic from that time you begin trade with this method (beside the manually search your tweets)?

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  #324 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Thanks @Heart

My tweets started in December last year. I am commenting the trades here in the forum.
And I am logging all twittered trades in a spreadsheet.
Here you have a short graph of the points made each week of this year with ONE contract.
Included up to today's result. (Note: one week in february I made no trade - thus the
last week on the chart is named "week 29" instead of 30)

GFIs1


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GFIs1 View Post
Today Dax short from 10:30 to 12:00

outlook - no high volatilty today expected - some drive could come tomorrow

GFIs1


Thanks to Mr. ECB, Mario Draghi, who spoke today very optimistically concerning the Euro
the breakout north - foreseen by my for friday - happened today already.
The trading range is with that upmove very high - tomorrow will be no GFIs1 trade
as the range exceeded the allowed range for the system.
After all I am happy with the trading results of this week.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

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This week only 3 trades taken

three positive trades (45 + 48 + 28 points)
no negative trade

Weekly result plus 121 points

Total twittered points since week 1: plus 745

GFIs1

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  #327 (permalink)
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Dax long from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6715

exit @ 6747

result plus 32 points

risk - medium

outlook - upmove and bullish momentum still valid

GFIs1

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  #328 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Thanks @Heart

My tweets started in December last year. I am commenting the trades here in the forum.
And I am logging all twittered trades in a spreadsheet.
Here you have a short graph of the points made each week of this year with ONE contract.
Included up to today's result. (Note: one week in february I made no trade - thus the
last week on the chart is named "week 29" instead of 30)

GFIs1


So you haven't had a down week in 29 weeks? Are those points? Euros? $USD?

"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
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RM99 View Post
So you haven't had a down week in 29 weeks? Are those points? Euros? $USD?

I also thought that

But I think it's a summarized graph of fdax points. So when the graph goes down that was a down week. Correct GFIs1?

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Heart View Post
I also thought that

But I think it's a summarized graph of fdax points. So when the graph goes down that was a down week. Correct GFIs1?

Absolutely correct - in this year I had 7 weeks with negative weekly result.
The graph shows Points made every week in the Dax future.
As you can see in my weekly result updates - the total points for all weeks
in the year are stated as Points too.

Thanks for following!

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 6788

exit @ 6811

result plus 23 points

risk medium

outlook: upmove to underline the bullish trend - evt. taking out the last high of May - exiting the trade before US numbers

GFIs1

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Today a Dax short from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 6775

exit @ 6772

result plus 3 points

risk medium

outlook: some consolidation on that level expected - back to level of 6738 probable that level
nearly reached - next support @ 6685 level - and the gap friday to monday would be closed


GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
outlook: some consolidation on that level expected - back to level of 6738 probable that level
nearly reached - next support @ 6685 level - and the gap friday to monday would be closed


GFIs1

Low of the day was 6736. That support level held - gap still not closed. The preview outlook was good.
Looking tomorrow about the development.

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Today Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 6760

exit @ 6730 (SL)

result @ minus 30 points

risk - medium

outlook - upmove out of the consolidation zone expected

GFIs1

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  #335 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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..are always special - either one omits a trade - or some higher volatility may occur -
hitting stops. As it was today. The setup was ok - direction too.
Seeing the 6850 resistance barrier will fall soon and 6912 is a next target. From there
some retracement to knock out 7K again will be necessary.

All in all a interesting mark in the trader's month.
Good trades all

GFIs1

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  #336 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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GFIs1 View Post
Seeing the 6850 resistance barrier will fall soon and 6912 is a next target. From there
some retracement to knock out 7K again will be necessary.

GFIs1


All movements a little bit earlier than thought
1) Resistance barrier 6850 killed (Hi was 6864)
2) Move down very steep and very far...
This was the retracement already. Price might have reached the lows as a base for next upmoves.
With the ECB press conference the Dax future fell 201 points within 30 minutes.
Looking for a daily close of >6666 today (@17:30h CET)

This day shows the incertainty on the markets - futures made the same rollercoaster as some
forex pairs eg. EUR/USD.

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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GFIs1 View Post
...With the ECB press conference the Dax future fell 201 points within 30 minutes.
Looking for a daily close of 6666 today (@17:30h CET)
GFIs1

Here a screenshot of that impressive bold downmove after ECB press conference - 30 minutes from 14:30 to 15:00:



GFIs1

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  #338 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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After yesterday's Dax range and volatilty the system gives no trade today.
The Hi/Lo during cash hours was 268 points!

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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today in the Dax - the extraordinary move after ECB press conference was more than
eliminated today. Showing that the bulls migth take over to push the price over 7K.

Here a snapshot: some slow but steady upmove



GFIs1

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  #340 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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This week four trades

One negative trade with SL of 30 points
Three positive trades with 58 points

Result for the week plus 28 points

Total points since week one 773

GFIs1

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  #341 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Today a Dax long from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6888

exit @ 6909

result plus 19 points

risk - medium

outlook - Monday start after a bullish Friday means looking for new highs..

GFIs1

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  #342 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Movement of the Dax seems to be bullish - limit 6996
For tomorrow I expect another bullish day - maybe to that upper resistance
and Wednesday a first pullback.
This is a highly possible scenario - trades will be taken after tomorrow's start.

GFIs1

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  #343 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Looking at the daily Dax chart some thoughts about the developement and
some possible levels in the next weeks:



GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 11:00 to 12:30

entry @ 6949

exit @ 6919 (SL)

result minus 30 points

risk - low

outlook - bullish move still not finished

GFIs1

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  #345 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6929

exit @ 6923

result plus 6 points

risk - low

outlook - some consolidation here

GFIs1

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  #346 (permalink)
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May I ask you what scenario is decisive for you for your exit? Or how you handle your trade...

Say you are in big profit with the trade, do you set any stop (b/e? b/e + x? trailing/jumping?) or do you always wait til your mentioned time is there and exit in that minute come what may .

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  #347 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Heart View Post
May I ask you what scenario is decisive for you for your exit? Or how you handle your trade...

Say you are in big profit with the trade, do you set any stop (b/e? b/e + x? trailing/jumping?) or do you always wait til your mentioned time is there and exit in that minute come what may .

The answer is easy - there is no interaction when the trade has started. It is on a mechanical basis and can be
set up totally automated. As I have seen in the past trades setting eg. stops to breakeven is not in any case
a good optimization. Stops are set in a optimal "disaster" distance - and hopefully not needed.
Given that trading idea - there are no emotions in the game nor any stressful calculations when a trade has started.

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6959

exit @ 6912

result plus 47 points

risk - medium

outlook - shorting "second wave" in the bullish trend - expecting further bullish movement today and tomorrow

GFIs1

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  #349 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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That time the "second wave" we were riding very exactly...
From here the bullish scenario to continue the upside path
may have open doors again :-)
As always - a pullback against the main direction is higher
risk than to swim with the crowd.

GFIs1

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  #350 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 6918

exit @ 6915

result minus 3

risk - medium

outlook - today a retracement from yesterday to maybe knock 7000 out today

GFIs1

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  #351 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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This week 5 trades

Two trades negative (1 SL of -30 points, one -3 points)
Three trades positive (19 + 6 +47)

Total weekly result plus 39 points

Total points since week 1 plus 812 points

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Today Dax long from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6935

exit @ 6964

result plus 29 points

risk medium

outlook - 7'000 to be reached soon

GFIs1

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  #353 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 11:00 to 12:30

entry @ 6970

exit @ 6964

result minus 6 points

risk - medium

outlook - 7K seems reap to catch today

GFIs1

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  #354 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6948

exit @ 6942

result plus 6 points (very low volume today)

risk - medium

outlook - no more 7K comments today

GFIs1

there is a possible touchdown @ 6852 today or tomorrow

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6946

exit @ 6956

result minus 10 points

risk - medium

outlook - consolidation continues

GFIs1

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  #356 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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GFIs1 View Post
Looking at the daily Dax chart some thoughts about the developement and
some possible levels in the next weeks...

GFIs1

Today the 7'000 level had been hit. The bullish trend has some force to make some 150 points more as stated
in the last post with daily Dax chart.

Here the updated daily Dax:



GFIs1

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  #357 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 7024

exit @ 7016

result minus 8 points

risk - medium

outlook - breakout bullish

GFIs1

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  #358 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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This week 5 trades

Three trades negative (-6, -10, -8)
Two trades positive (29 + 6)

Total weekly result plus 11 points

Total points since week 1 plus 823 points

GFIs1

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  #359 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7051

exit @ 7064

result minus 14 points

risk medium

outlook - expecting two short days Monday and Tuesday - Wednesday turns again north

GFIs1

outlook scenario did not happen- but still seeing 6984 to pass before going higher

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  #360 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 11:00 to 12:30

entry @ 7071

exit @ 7066

result @ minus 5 points

risk - medium

outlook - pushing further up (71xx?), expecting reversal day now tomorrow

GFIs1

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  #361 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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GFIs1 View Post
...
risk - medium

outlook - pushing further up (71xx?), expecting reversal day now tomorrow

GFIs1

Scenario of 71xx finally arrived this afternoon.
The systems time window did not fit to the actual moves today - this is no big deal.
So after the two longs this week I expect the reversal tomorrow - fits into the plan :-)

GFIs1

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  #362 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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As this thread does not allow overnight or over weekend trades but some swing traders might
be interested in a bigger picture approach - I have started a thread for big wave trades in the Dax
and will compare the theoretical results over time with the system trades in this thread here.

The address for interested traders is:



Any comments welcome :-)

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 10:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7038

exit @ 7017

result plus 21 points

risk - medium

outlook - as previewed the reversal day is here today - crossing 7K again - TP 6985 area

GFIs1

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  #364 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7030

exit @ 7036

result minus 6 points

risk - medium

outlook - chance to consolidate around 7000 level high

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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The consolidation down to push price under 7K has not yet finished..
Our time window was to short or the support to high - whatever..
Waiting with a long before this criteria has met.

Good Trades
GFIs1


14:20h - level of 6985 was hit

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  #366 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 6938

exit @ 6913

result minus 25 points

risk - high

outlook - expecting a weak attempt to get back near 7K

GFIs1

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  #367 (permalink)
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Legendary Market Wizard
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Slightly red week.
Took five trades -
three negative trades (-14, -5, -25 points)
two positive trades ( 21, 1 points)

Total weekly result minus 22 points.
Total points since week one: 801 points

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Today Dax long from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6977

exit @ 6989

result plus 12 points

risk - medium

GFIs1

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  #370 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:00 to 13:30

entry @ 7007

exit @ 7014

result minus 7 points

risk - medium

outlook - not much volatilty expected today

GFIs1

chop chop sideways - hoping for some upmove this afternoon ;-)
Tomorrow another slight correction down seems obvious

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  #371 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6996

exit @ 7004

result minus 8 points

risk - medium

outlook - retracement for today

GFIs1

Retracement was here..
but only BEFORE the fake US 2 quarter data... :-----(
Never believe a statistic in election year

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  #372 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Looking @ the bigger pic in the daily - it is obvious that the previous
highs in the Dax will soon be history:



GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6973

exit @ 6953

result plus 20 points

risk - medium

outlook - expecting small vola down today

GFIs1

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  #374 (permalink)
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Hi GFIs1,

What an impressing journal you have got here! I decided to grab the results posted here and run some statistical analysis on them. I will share the results here:

Number of trades: 119
Mean points per trade: +4.3
Standard deviation of trade: 32.7 points
Average winning trade: 31.6 points
Average losing trade: -21.6 points
Winning percentage: 47.9%
Risk/reward ratio: 1.47:1

I assume about 240 trades per year in average (you had skipped some days due to volatility conditions).

Annual Volatility: 15.7%
Annualized Sharpe Ratio (assuming 4% risk free rate): 1.73

I have also attached the picture of monte carlo analysis here. Monte carlo simulation is ran with 100000 iterations.
Blue line is showing average result, green lines are 95% confidence intervals, red line is the worst result in 100k trials and black line is a random result. The lines represent arithmetic returns (you are not cumulatively increasing lot sizes as your capital increases).

Monte carlo results yielded also chance of positive score: 92.2%

Overall very good results so far and I will be very interested to see how this develops. I'm impressed by the way how you declare before actual trading what you will do during the day (entry time, exit time and direction). I haven't seen anyone doing this before. Keep up the good work!

Edit: Added handwritten data (GFIs1_first_119_trades.txt)

@GFIs1 if you can supply me the data from the beginning of this trading system (I couldn't find your twitter account) I could make the same analysis with bigger sample size that would yield more accurate statistics.

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  #375 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Thanks @rounder8 for the statistic and the nice comments.
Started publicly with the system on december 19 last year.
There is more data (plus 12 months more). The results can not
be taken for a statistic as the rule set was developed in that
period. Will send you all the twittered results though.
You can find the messages on twitter:
https://twitter.com/gfis1
or search for gfis1.

GFIs1

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  #376 (permalink)
Bangkok, Thailand
 
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GFIs1 View Post
Thanks @rounder8 for the statistic and the nice comments.
Started publicly with the system on december 19 last year.
There is more data (plus 12 months more). The results can not
be taken for a statistic as the rule set was developed in that
period. Will send you all the twittered results though.
You can find the messages on twitter:
https://twitter.com/gfis1
or search for gfis1.

GFIs1

Since when do you consider your system to be fully developed to the form it is now? Is it automated system or are there some discretionary elements? Earlier in this journal you told that you have your results on a spreadsheet, it would be easier for me to calculate the statistics if I could have that resource so I don't have to manually collect the nuggets of information from twitter feed, in case you are curious to see...

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  #377 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Today a Dax long from 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 6905

exit @ 6944

result plus 44 points

risk - medium

outlook - last day of the month - no important US numbers

GFIs1

edit: "Ben's speech" and coming monday holiday are bringing some extra vola...

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  #378 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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rounder8 View Post
Since when do you consider your system to be fully developed to the form it is now? Is it automated system or are there some discretionary elements? ..

The system is final since the beginning of publicly announcing the trades. It is automated - but not programmed
to open a trade. The closing / and stop is fully automated. The ruleset is quite difficult to program as it includes
situations like holidays - important numbers on a day etc.. So these are not "discretionary" elements - but these
elements do influence time of starting and/or closing time of each trade. Unfortunately this is not easily to be
transcripted into a full auto trading system.
Hope this helps :-)

GFIs1

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  #379 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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This week we had five trades

Two trades negative (-7 and -8 points)
Three trades positive (12 + 20 + 44 points)

Total result plus 61 points

Total result since week 1: 862 points

GFIs1

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  #380 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Broker: IB / DTN
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Posts: 5,304 since Feb 2012
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...lost some chips on the table...:



GFIs1

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  #381 (permalink)
Bangkok, Thailand
 
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I ran the same tests with the whole data available (since the beginning of published scores) and found out amazing results. GFIs1, you sir are a genius (or then some of the data is not correct)!

Number of trades: 148
Mean points per trade: +6.9
Standard deviation of trade: 32.0 points
Average winning trade: 31.7 points
Average losing trade: -20.6 points
Winning percentage: 52.0%
Risk/reward ratio: 1.54:1

Assuming 75000EUR starting capital:

Annual Volatility: 13.6%
Annualized Sharpe Ratio (assuming 4% risk free rate): 3.03
GACR: 55.4%

Monte Carlo (100k repetitions) results yielded chance of positive score: 99.6%

Attached MC simulation and data.

Edit: Starting capital amount corrected for volatility, sharpe and gacr calculations... (90k -> 75k)

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  #382 (permalink)
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GFIs1 has a very good system and is a good trader.
One question, where is the Stop loss in case of wrong trade ? How many points ?

Keep on going GFIs1. Nice thread.

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  #383 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Thanks @loeser

SL settings are for normal days (>90% of time) 30 points,
on special days with foreseen high volatility 40 points.

This means a calculated maximum loss of 750 to 1'000 per car and trade.
Data based on futures dealed with Interactive Brokers.

GFIs1

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  #384 (permalink)
Vienna Austria
 
 
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I'm curious on one aspect, the spread this week (TT FIX feed from Velocity) barely managed to stay at 0.5 pips, ive seen it bounce around in the 1.0 points area (spread) and deviating from the last traded price by quite a bit.

Anybody else have this issue this week on the FDAX?

FGBL stayed stable as it usually does but dax was simply a disaster to scalp on m1 with the spread, with 5 point stopouts it really kills some of your positions =/

Nice charts as usual

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  #385 (permalink)
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Amnesia View Post
I'm curious on one aspect, the spread this week (TT FIX feed from Velocity) barely managed to stay at 0.5 pips, ive seen it bounce around in the 1.0 points area (spread) and deviating from the last traded price by quite a bit.

Anybody else have this issue this week on the FDAX?

FGBL stayed stable as it usually does but dax was simply a disaster to scalp on m1 with the spread, with 5 point stopouts it really kills some of your positions =/

Nice charts as usual

According to my observations more than 1 tick (0.5 points) bid/ask spread is quite normal on DAX because it's such a thinly traded market when compared to for example FESX or even FGBL. During Bernanke's speech it was quite normal to have bigger spreads due to market getting more volatile and less liquid thus potentially causing stop loss slippage.

Something to consider:
Algos Set New Speed Reading Record: 4549 Words In 20 Milliseconds | ZeroHedge

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  #386 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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NO GFIs1 Dax trade today - calm trading on US labour Day expected - within friday's range.

GFIs1

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  #387 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 11:00 to 15:00

entry @ 6995

exit @ 6990

result plus 5 points

risk - medium

outlook - some consolidation to start the week

GFIs1

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  #388 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short from 11:00 to 15:00

entry @ 6995

exit @

result

risk - medium

outlook - some consolidation to start the week

GFIs1

Morning, I have 6978 - 6966 - 6930.8 - 6883.1

I agree with short. Let's see. Good luck GFIs 1

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  #389 (permalink)
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GFIs, you finished the trade at 3 PM West European time.
You could catch more if you stayed in on go out early ?

Thanks.

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  #390 (permalink)
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loeser View Post
GFIs, you finished the trade at 3 PM West European time.
You could catch more if you stayed in on go out early ?

Thanks.

You are right: "Today!!"
But normally (after the GFIs1 rules) after a US holiday a start into a new week
may be THE turning point..
Thus a exit (over all holiday over weekend trades) might get a better result by
exiting before US really starts moving. (At least we got some points over all;-) )

On the other thread

you can follow exactly that longer term approach.

GFIs1

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  #391 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 6906

exit @ 6937

result minus 31 points

risk - medium

outlook - downmove has not ended here

GFIs1

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  #392 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long from 09:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7008

exit @ 7054

result plus 46 points

risk - medium

outlook - seems that some ECB news for today's decision had been seen yesterday already ;-)
so the downmove is history now...

GFIs1

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  #393 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax long from 09:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7008

exit @ 7054

result plus 46 points

risk - medium

outlook - seems that some ECB news for today's decision had been seen yesterday already ;-)
so the downmove is history now...

GFIs1

What was the basis for the long entry?

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  #394 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Amnesia View Post
What was the basis for the long entry?

hi @Amnesia

the first 30min candle from 09:00 to 09:30: was GREEN
entry time earlier than normal as ECB decision was programmed for 13:30

hope this helps
GFIs1

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  #395 (permalink)
Vienna Austria
 
 
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Interessting, did you place any other trades today?

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  #396 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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This thread is about ONE Dax trade per day with the goal to minimize risk
and to take out the maximum points in a predefined time window.
So these ECB days are a special thing which is NOT covered by the
daily system. Instead only the first movement with the most
probable direction is taken here.
Don't forget that the rules are pre-fixed for all trading days of a year.

GFIs1

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  #397 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Looking back at post #372 where a push north was discussed - I am making an update here
some 10 days later:
As we can see the bullish push has now brought the price north of the green spiral. New highs
are within reach now - expecting to see the push going further north before futures expiring
end of next week. At that point some retracement will be normal.



GFIs1

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  #398 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Seeing that bullish development - the question arises up to where the Dax will
push before finding the next ceiling.
The bet here is around 7366 points...
Lets see how things evolve ;-)

GFIs1

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  #399 (permalink)
Belgium/Antwerp
 
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GFIs1 View Post
Seeing that bullish development - the question arises up to where the Dax will
push before finding the next ceiling.
The bet here is around 7366 points...
Lets see how things evolve ;-)

GFIs1

Good morning. At the moment again agree.

I have now 7217 / 7335 / 7400

Thanks for sharing.

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  #400 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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As yesterday's range exceeded 150 points - a day without a GFIs1 trade is given.
The normal rule would not apply to give a positive result...

But as a rule of thumb - taking a long from 9:30 to 13:30 might be an alternative :-)

GFIs1

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