Price movements in the last days from 10:00 to 11:00 in the opposite
direction was strong (yesterday in 30 minutes more than 10% of
overallday volume) and not expected.
As the price is in the daily cloud since 10 days and the system has
hit three times in a row the stoploss - there will be no more DAX trade
for this week: Rule No 1– protect your capital!
Normal price behaviour will be back soon.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Out of experience of the past 6 months I am giving more information
when taking a daily trade. The risk factor from low / medium / high
is already installed.
A next preview in the actual developing movements - speaking
of the morning opening I will give within the next two weeks:
There will be a prediction how the intraday movement will
proceed and evolve - chop chop for no big move - trending for
moving in a direction - and explode for some break out.
Hope to find the good tone in this concert :-)
Might help to think about risk management, setting SL and others.
GFIs1
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Dax upmove today without closing the gap til' now.
Level of 6750 broken too (high of 6771).
Will be interesting for the coming days.
Still having 6850 as resistance level.
risk high (weak signal / tight stop) still in the trade - sorry - SL update was not possible today as futures.io (formerly BMT)
was down..
Will have an extra post with view on the daily chart to explain
outlook - upmove previewed for today happened yesterday - expecting some retracement now (level 6666) reached
Three trades red (1 SL of 30 points,
one trade minus 9 and one minus 1 point
Two green trades - one with plus 4 points
and a runner with plus 83 points
Weekly result plus 47 points
Total points twittered since week one: plus 624 points
Today the upmovement in the Dax was not discussed by me in detail.
To get some more insight - I was using the daily chart of the Dax with
a fib spiral - the upper resistance level was to find for today @ 6780.
That would be the maximum stretch for a stop in our daily Dax trade.
Admitting that the start of todays intraday Dax movement for a friday
was not really fitting the normal plan - our bigger picture shows that
the turning point was @ 6781 and the time window was only shifted
two hours to the right.
So - even being to early - the trade was a runner.
Here the bigger picture (part of the daily chart):
Hope this helps!
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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...getting back up on mentioned "support @ 6440"
with US closing on the Dax future.
Was quite an interesting day.
Looking forward to the coming days :-)
The today's scenario was quite predictible - as the Monday morning started with
a big gap down - it was obvious the price had to move up intrady to the red
TenkanSen and eventually moves down to the blue KijunSen.
The movement underneath KijunSen happened as an exaggeration as the US
market opened. For the Dax future closing (US) the price came back on KijunSen.
Now price is back withinin the blue bullish cloud again. Expecting some move out
north within a week.
My tweets started in December last year. I am commenting the trades here in the forum.
And I am logging all twittered trades in a spreadsheet.
Here you have a short graph of the points made each week of this year with ONE contract.
Included up to today's result. (Note: one week in february I made no trade - thus the
last week on the chart is named "week 29" instead of 30)
GFIs1
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Thanks to Mr. ECB, Mario Draghi, who spoke today very optimistically concerning the Euro
the breakout north - foreseen by my for friday - happened today already.
The trading range is with that upmove very high - tomorrow will be no GFIs1 trade
as the range exceeded the allowed range for the system.
After all I am happy with the trading results of this week.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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Absolutely correct - in this year I had 7 weeks with negative weekly result.
The graph shows Points made every week in the Dax future.
As you can see in my weekly result updates - the total points for all weeks
in the year are stated as Points too.
outlook: some consolidation on that level expected - back to level of 6738 probable that level
nearly reached - next support @ 6685 level - and the gap friday to monday would be closed
GFIs1
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..are always special - either one omits a trade - or some higher volatility may occur -
hitting stops. As it was today. The setup was ok - direction too.
Seeing the 6850 resistance barrier will fall soon and 6912 is a next target. From there
some retracement to knock out 7K again will be necessary.
All in all a interesting mark in the trader's month.
Good trades all
All movements a little bit earlier than thought
1) Resistance barrier 6850 killed (Hi was 6864)
2) Move down very steep and very far...
This was the retracement already. Price might have reached the lows as a base for next upmoves.
With the ECB press conference the Dax future fell 201 points within 30 minutes.
Looking for a daily close of >6666 today (@17:30h CET)
This day shows the incertainty on the markets - futures made the same rollercoaster as some
forex pairs eg. EUR/USD.
today in the Dax - the extraordinary move after ECB press conference was more than
eliminated today. Showing that the bulls migth take over to push the price over 7K.
Movement of the Dax seems to be bullish - limit 6996
For tomorrow I expect another bullish day - maybe to that upper resistance
and Wednesday a first pullback.
This is a highly possible scenario - trades will be taken after tomorrow's start.
May I ask you what scenario is decisive for you for your exit? Or how you handle your trade...
Say you are in big profit with the trade, do you set any stop (b/e? b/e + x? trailing/jumping?) or do you always wait til your mentioned time is there and exit in that minute come what may .
The answer is easy - there is no interaction when the trade has started. It is on a mechanical basis and can be
set up totally automated. As I have seen in the past trades setting eg. stops to breakeven is not in any case
a good optimization. Stops are set in a optimal "disaster" distance - and hopefully not needed.
Given that trading idea - there are no emotions in the game nor any stressful calculations when a trade has started.
GFIs1
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That time the "second wave" we were riding very exactly...
From here the bullish scenario to continue the upside path
may have open doors again :-)
As always - a pullback against the main direction is higher
risk than to swim with the crowd.
Scenario of 71xx finally arrived this afternoon.
The systems time window did not fit to the actual moves today - this is no big deal.
So after the two longs this week I expect the reversal tomorrow - fits into the plan :-)
As this thread does not allow overnight or over weekend trades but some swing traders might
be interested in a bigger picture approach - I have started a thread for big wave trades in the Dax
and will compare the theoretical results over time with the system trades in this thread here.
This time like GFIs1's Dax trading journal - as already seen on futures.io (formerly BMT) - a very different trading approach will be on track for testing reasons.
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL followers first:
This thread has …
Any comments welcome :-)
GFIs1
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The consolidation down to push price under 7K has not yet finished..
Our time window was to short or the support to high - whatever..
Waiting with a long before this criteria has met.
What an impressing journal you have got here! I decided to grab the results posted here and run some statistical analysis on them. I will share the results here:
Number of trades: 119
Mean points per trade: +4.3 Standard deviation of trade: 32.7 points
Average winning trade: 31.6 points
Average losing trade: -21.6 points
Winning percentage: 47.9%
Risk/reward ratio: 1.47:1
I assume about 240 trades per year in average (you had skipped some days due to volatility conditions).
I have also attached the picture of monte carlo analysis here. Monte carlo simulation is ran with 100000 iterations.
Blue line is showing average result, green lines are 95% confidence intervals, red line is the worst result in 100k trials and black line is a random result. The lines represent arithmetic returns (you are not cumulatively increasing lot sizes as your capital increases).
Monte carlo results yielded also chance of positive score: 92.2%
Overall very good results so far and I will be very interested to see how this develops. I'm impressed by the way how you declare before actual trading what you will do during the day (entry time, exit time and direction). I haven't seen anyone doing this before. Keep up the good work!
Edit: Added handwritten data (GFIs1_first_119_trades.txt)
@GFIs1 if you can supply me the data from the beginning of this trading system (I couldn't find your twitter account) I could make the same analysis with bigger sample size that would yield more accurate statistics.
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Thanks @rounder8 for the statistic and the nice comments.
Started publicly with the system on december 19 last year.
There is more data (plus 12 months more). The results can not
be taken for a statistic as the rule set was developed in that
period. Will send you all the twittered results though.
You can find the messages on twitter: https://twitter.com/gfis1
or search for gfis1.
Since when do you consider your system to be fully developed to the form it is now? Is it automated system or are there some discretionary elements? Earlier in this journal you told that you have your results on a spreadsheet, it would be easier for me to calculate the statistics if I could have that resource so I don't have to manually collect the nuggets of information from twitter feed, in case you are curious to see...
The following user says Thank You to rounder8 for this post:
The system is final since the beginning of publicly announcing the trades. It is automated - but not programmed
to open a trade. The closing / and stop is fully automated. The ruleset is quite difficult to program as it includes
situations like holidays - important numbers on a day etc.. So these are not "discretionary" elements - but these
elements do influence time of starting and/or closing time of each trade. Unfortunately this is not easily to be
transcripted into a full auto trading system.
Hope this helps :-)
I ran the same tests with the whole data available (since the beginning of published scores) and found out amazing results. GFIs1, you sir are a genius (or then some of the data is not correct)!
Number of trades: 148
Mean points per trade: +6.9 Standard deviation of trade: 32.0 points
Average winning trade: 31.7 points
Average losing trade: -20.6 points
Winning percentage: 52.0%
Risk/reward ratio: 1.54:1
I'm curious on one aspect, the spread this week (TT FIX feed from Velocity) barely managed to stay at 0.5 pips, ive seen it bounce around in the 1.0 points area (spread) and deviating from the last traded price by quite a bit.
Anybody else have this issue this week on the FDAX?
FGBL stayed stable as it usually does but dax was simply a disaster to scalp on m1 with the spread, with 5 point stopouts it really kills some of your positions =/
According to my observations more than 1 tick (0.5 points) bid/ask spread is quite normal on DAX because it's such a thinly traded market when compared to for example FESX or even FGBL. During Bernanke's speech it was quite normal to have bigger spreads due to market getting more volatile and less liquid thus potentially causing stop loss slippage.
You are right: "Today!!"
But normally (after the GFIs1 rules) after a US holiday a start into a new week
may be THE turning point..
Thus a exit (over all holiday over weekend trades) might get a better result by
exiting before US really starts moving. (At least we got some points over all;-) )
This time like GFIs1's Dax trading journal - as already seen on futures.io (formerly BMT) - a very different trading approach will be on track for testing reasons.
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL followers first:
This thread has …
This thread is about ONE Dax trade per day with the goal to minimize risk
and to take out the maximum points in a predefined time window.
So these ECB days are a special thing which is NOT covered by the
daily system. Instead only the first movement with the most
probable direction is taken here.
Don't forget that the rules are pre-fixed for all trading days of a year.
Looking back at post #372 where a push north was discussed - I am making an update here
some 10 days later:
As we can see the bullish push has now brought the price north of the green spiral. New highs
are within reach now - expecting to see the push going further north before futures expiring
end of next week. At that point some retracement will be normal.
GFIs1
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Seeing that bullish development - the question arises up to where the Dax will
push before finding the next ceiling.
The bet here is around 7366points...
Lets see how things evolve ;-)
.
