Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
The big 3 oil producers, USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia could not find a common goal in pricing over the weekend. Saudi Arabia did not want to reduce production to stabilize the prices in a already falling market.
The result now came over night in a 30% crash in all the prices of the big 3.
Price of US oil is now 50% lower than January 2020...
Of course the decarbonization in the industry given by the climate change and strict climate goals will force industry to get out of oil, gaz, coal etc. - Means that the overall consumption of oil is on its way down anyway.
What are the effects of this oil war?
Clients can profit of lower air fares, lower prices for cars & trucks, much lower prices for heating oil and more. This does not mean that the total consumption will jump up as limits are already given on the demand side.
The good thing for the climate:
US fracking oil will fall out soon as the costs for the production are now much too high for a profitable business...
The danger of a recession is not near - it is already reality!
Why? Because of indicators that are quite visible right now:
negative interests on money has now real effects in economy
German car makers still on diesel motors and not having any …
I have to adjust the importance of the Corona Virus CoVid19 with its strong influence on the markets since then. As long as flights are cancelled, harbors are working just half or none, whole parts of countries are under quarantine and borders between countries are closed the development of the economy is totally out of order. People are not traveling, have to stay at home for home office, schools and universities closed, no sports events nearly worldwide, no large expositions for goods, art, travel etc. - the trouble is here!
To be clear - all the managements are not prepared (not even speaking of the governments) to take out a plan for a crisis or to decide wisely in a alerted world.
The actual situation is not stabilized nor can we overview the development for even the next 2 weeks!
Ah yes - finally this is not repaired with money from ECB or FED or states as this derailed train now is blocked for longer.
Here TWO highly possible scenarios that are not far from reality - as the last interpretations and walking forward scenarios had already outlined:
Next dive to: 9866.
Means to kill 10k again from top down:
Second dive to 8812 possible - depending on the circumstances shown within the next 2 months.
Of course this will stir up many markets. The melted wins will take out a mass of traders and wash
away some "free money"-traders from the markets. Motto "back to the roots!"
We will see. The actual price level of course is not the end of this actual down movement.
I wanted to comment on this -- for US traders, who are basically too US-centric sometimes.
I recently concluded an experiment where I got up early (2:30 AM, US Eastern time) so I could get into the US equity futures while the European traders were dominant in the US market (the early part of the often-mentioned "European session"). The rationale was that a lot goes on in ES and YM before US traders are even awake, and that European impact on ES is much greater than we generally think, if for no other reason than it happens, or begins to happen, sooner.
For example, why are there opening gaps? We say it's because of "overnight" trading moving the market ahead of the "open," but it's not "overnight" for the Europeans who are doing the trading and are responsible for the moving.
I think traders take the "regular" in "Regular Trading Hours" a little too seriously. As if it's all that really matters.
I had to stop the experiment because changing my wake/sleep schedule that much basically wrecked me, but it otherwise was a success.
So, there is obviously a serious impact of US economic and market events on Europe, but the reverse is definitely true too. The world is not as small as it used to be, and countries are not as isolated and self-contained as they were. (Which brings up the virus topic again in a way, but that's not exactly my point here.)
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Thanks a lot for your input. It is the truth!
My reflection on this theme is not an offense nor personally meant. It is just my point of view over a long period when I traveled a lot to USA into many different areas (eg. in the 80'ies to attend the key notes with Steve Jobs every year when MacWorld started). "Where are you from?" - "Switzerland" - oh nice, SWEDEN a lovely country"... Small talk as usual. Standard knowledge from nearly every US citizen. Swiss friends of mine who own apartments in Boston, houses at the beach of Woodshole and Martha's Vineyard, another one in Florida, tell me the same.
The core lies in the narrowness of the American. He can not see over the fence as this one is so far away in this large country. The main problem lies in the language! Do you speak or understand more than one language? No, because English is widely spread. To learn about habits one has to speak more than one language. Here in Switzerland we sit in a country with 4 different official languages. In school 2 or 3 languages to learn is a standard.
Another one are the media: do you watch a German Channel on TV? No? That could be helpful, especially for a trader exactly to see and to learn what happened in the world before US opens. On my side I watched yesterday and today CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC plus the development of Corona on Italian and French and German channels. The main information for me come from two German channels that are focused on trading. With those info's one is open to get a bigger picture which as an important base for own decisions.
So:
Learning to trade is learning to "feel" the markets (not only the one where I am interested). There are so many things underneath that influence the movement of the markets. They are very depending on each other even over the continents. The only thing that rests are the patterns that repeat from time to time. Like the black Monday moves yesterday. Given the learning curve one can do quite good in a explosive market with that knowledge. Trading is hard work to learn and often connected to a big investment before things run smoothly.
A strong gap down of around 150 points in the DAX future this morning back to a level of 13300...
Just over night.
Looks not good for a new run up.
Good trades
GFIs1
Here the chart:
Where are we today?
Exactly there with a Monday when markets crashed around the globe...
Predicting bigger moves needs a good feeling for the charts to feel the overheated situation as well as the boring sideways weeks.
To sum it up: the interesting days came with last week to today. The next development has to be carefully analyzed.
