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Friday rule was working - would have given some points until 13:30.
At least back to normal results - most of last year results of the better companies are out now. Just some lazy companies with normally bad results are at the end of the row: those will not affect the indices.
Tomorrow Monday 17th US will have closed exchanges on Presidents Day.
Therefore no trade foreseen - weak volume in Germany - erratic movements possible.
Of course it is not meant as the day for the actual day and night on Twitter present President - but even more about the first President of the USA, George Washington 1789, in memoriam.
Then about the four killed Presidents Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy. It is quite a strong rate of 4 out of 45 elected Presidents that could not end their time as the President within election period.
The triangle had been finished 15:00 and the price is breaking out in north direction (as thought for the trade). Now the up might get to the point of closing the gap (13752) eventually.
That does no longer influence my trade of today
Just to note a real time thought...
Was a week with not much standard flow. Only some peanuts points on the table.
Just on Friday while afk some better trade had been developing (not taken)
from 9:30 to 13:30 long (nearly high of the day before the drop to 13567 @ 17:30)
with entry 13602 to exit 13673 - theoretic 70 points.
No problem so far - the shorts are taking speed - which is good news here.
Happy and sunny weekend
The danger of a recession is not near - it is already reality!
Why? Because of indicators that are quite visible right now:
• negative interests on money has now real effects in economy
• German car makers still on diesel motors and not having any real concept for a future of green mobility
• carmakers in general are building cars on the stock with old technology - just to sell it later with high rebates (eg. VW)
• much of the products in Germany are made in foreign countries like Poland, Hungary, China, USA etc.
• the threat of the Corona virus is striking back - after China now Europe affected which means supply chains are stopped
• visible much more new weapons in the fields and in production
• travel by air is at its limits and very quickly stopped by a virus, volcano or by war (see Ukraine, Iran, Iceland etc.)
• chemical overhead production - meets restrictions in every country now to be applied - means poisoning agriculture will be prohibited or restricted
• plane production now really is in trouble as Boeing can not provide planes to cheap ticket airlines and those have no alternatives - means growing plans for more business in travel are postponed
• climate change: I) getting out of fossil energy as well as of nuclear power and other. II) pushing towards Paris contract to reach CO2 goals given by 2030/50. III) rising sea levels (documented) are a threat for very large cities and harbours
• Money - or currencies - are in a real shift right now: eg USD in threat of importance as oil is no longer important for the world
• real money versus digital money - the battle is on and the outcome for the big banks in the world is most uncertain
• politics: many elections (US/Germany/GB etc.) now most influenced by media plus foreign countries means democracy is at war
• finally about the stock markets: I) too much printed money in the markets - without any winning projects or new goals. II) the numbers for 2019 are out - most good looking - with a now very bad outlook on 2020
To make it more visible: markets making quickly new all time highs are the real red signal for a big bang
This is what we can see in 2020. Political stability decreasing, millions of people on the escape to more stable ground for a living. Plus a new virile virus threatening every business on the world and space
What does it mean?
For us traders we will have some very interesting development ahead. Means to be very careful about where and when to put money at risk. Be there and not too late... Stay at the sidelines when markets make erratic moves that are sure to come (soon) with extreme volatility.
As described in my last post the markets in Europe are under pressure. Already 3 dead virus patients in Italy led to the closing of trains going to Austria. This is severe for every normality but still just the tip of the iceberg. We are starting the day 150 points lower in the DAX...
Dax short from 9:30 to 15:30
entry @ 13160
exit @ 12995 result 165 points
GFIs1
@ 14:30 - US now mixing up the markets. Looks like we have ~100 points up to now.
Things are important: Investors around the globe are getting out of stocks which sends the prices down.
@ 15:00 - while in the trade - Italy has doubled corona victims from 3 to 6 today
@ 15:20 touched 13k...
@ 15:30 the counter move may begin
what a result