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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #271 (permalink)
klw1
swansea,great britain
 
 
Posts: 4 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received


GFIs1 View Post
Today a Dax short from 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 6355

exit @

result

GFIs1



Hi GFIs1 -- Unfortunately another loser today and the 5th on the trot but do not despair I may have something that may help.If I can make a suggestion ?

Have you thought of changing the sl to 50 and tp to a fixed 24 each day. Now I hate 50 pip losers and that risk / reward as much as anyone else but for some reason it just might work using your system. I only have limited data to analyse as my M1 charts wont go back far enough for me scrutinise so maybe someone else can confirm my findings and it would be no great suprise with such limited data to find that the numbers just don't add up but here goes.

As an example the last 4 days ( not including today's session which still hasen't finished ) your system has 4 losses
of 30 points , using my sl/tp the results would have been + 24 ( 50 ) 24 24 , a totally different outcome and much more acceptable. Now of course you will be cutting winners short when you are right and for some that will be hard to take but for me consistency is the key to successful trading and a happier mindset knowing that you wont ( hopefully ) suffer large drawdowns and larger daily swings from profit to loss. Overall total pips gained seems to be around the same as your system but strike rate increases using mine from around 50 % to 78 % , of the losers only 1 hit the 50 pips , the others were 38 and 8 , again very acceptable.

Remember its just a small sample size , it could well all fall apart under more rigorous testing , I am a pen and paper guy maybe someone could analyse it in more detail to confirm.

Just trying to help.

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  #272 (permalink)
 tihfa 
detroit, mi
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Trading: SPY
 
Posts: 77 since Nov 2011
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klw1 View Post
Hi GFIs1 -- Unfortunately another loser today and the 5th on the trot but do not despair I may have something that may help.If I can make a suggestion ?

Have you thought of changing the sl to 50 and tp to a fixed 24 each day. Now I hate 50 pip losers and that risk / reward as much as anyone else but for some reason it just might work using your system. I only have limited data to analyse as my M1 charts wont go back far enough for me scrutinise so maybe someone else can confirm my findings and it would be no great suprise with such limited data to find that the numbers just don't add up but here goes.

As an example the last 4 days ( not including today's session which still hasen't finished ) your system has 4 losses
of 30 points , using my sl/tp the results would have been + 24 ( 50 ) 24 24 , a totally different outcome and much more acceptable. Now of course you will be cutting winners short when you are right and for some that will be hard to take but for me consistency is the key to successful trading and a happier mindset knowing that you wont ( hopefully ) suffer large drawdowns and larger daily swings from profit to loss. Overall total pips gained seems to be around the same as your system but strike rate increases using mine from around 50 % to 78 % , of the losers only 1 hit the 50 pips , the others were 38 and 8 , again very acceptable.

Remember its just a small sample size , it could well all fall apart under more rigorous testing , I am a pen and paper guy maybe someone could analyse it in more detail to confirm.

Just trying to help.


Would a time based trailing stop loss help? i.e. initial stop loss may be 30-50pts then every so often (5, 10, 15...minutues) reduce the stop loss by some amount?

What was the longest streak of lossed you had GFIs and peak equity drawdown?


Thanks for the great journal GFIs!

tihfa

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  #273 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received



klw1 View Post
Hi GFIs1 ...Have you thought of changing the sl to 50 and tp to a fixed 24 each day...

Hi @klw1

Thank you very much for your input. A short reflection here:
If I am setting the SL to 50 and to take a TP to 24 - every drawdown would weigh double...
This is NOT acceptable. I am fond of trades that hit the highest probable price without having
a TP involved. This makes the system finally profitable (tested on 2 years already).

Today's problem for the system was to find in this part:
Normally if yesterday's high/low is more than 150 points - then I have a No-Trade rule for
today. We are in a chop-chop week now and yesterday's range (official hours) was in a range
of 145 points... so very near to my No-Trade rule. Maybe I have to make there the
No-go for a day like this :-)

Otherwise the rule settings work for most of the weeks nicely (up to now) so there is
no need to change everything now.
As I stated that we are in a chop chop area - there is sometimes better to stay at the
sidelines til' normality is back.

Mention here that we have a FED decision on Friday - I assume that the volatility will stay
high for end of this week and that the volume will be adequate.
Sorry for any inconveniences here.

GFIs1

Any input always welcome - thanks!

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  #274 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received


tihfa View Post
Would a time based trailing stop loss help? i.e. initial stop loss may be 30-50pts then every so often (5, 10, 15...minutues) reduce the stop loss by some amount?
What was the longest streak of lossed you had GFIs and peak equity drawdown?

Hi @tihfa

Thanks for the questions.
Trailing stops: they are normally taken out if I am entering at 09:30. I let play out
the back and forth and do not "manage" the trade. Normal days have a 30 point SL,
special days (high vola, Rollover week etc.) a 40 point SL.
As a result the SL is far enough away from normal movements and is tight enough
to protect the capital (seen here by experience and statistics)

I counted already 3 to 5 negative trades in a row - over all results are always positive
here - so I had never a negative month up to now.
As I stated in that thread here already - live with the losers - accept them - and
look for the NEXT OPPORTUNITY.
No hurry to end up as a winner :-)

Happy Trades ALL
GFIs1

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  #275 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received

After rethinking inputs on twitter and on futures.io (formerly BMT) I am looking to provide
some extra information before opening a daily trade here.

There will be a extra info on how I see a trade in advance -
so there will be a "Low Risk" or a "Higher Risk" remark
coming with the system trade according to the rules
with observing the actual market.

Hope this helps to eliminate some negative points here!

GFIs1

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  #276 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received

Today the uptrend seems to have finished.
So a Dax short from 11:30 to 13:00

entry @ 6376

exit @ 6367

result plus 9 points

Risk low

GFIs1

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  #277 (permalink)
klw1
swansea,great britain
 
 
Posts: 4 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received

Hi GFIs1 thanks for taking the time out to reply.



" If I am setting the SL to 50 and to take a TP to 24 - every drawdown would weigh double...
This is NOT acceptable. "


An occasional 50 loss does not weigh double in my book was just looking at a way to avoid 5 consecutive losses.





" Sorry for any inconveniences here. "


No inconveniences here my friend, as I stated I was just trying to help.





" Hope this helps to eliminate some negative points here! "


I really don't want to be classified as a negative poster,I was clearly stating that I was only making a suggestion and trying to help, I am 100 % behind you on this thread.
Anyone that has the courage and confidence to do this deserves all the credit going.

I totally understand and respect that you don't want to make any changes,I only did so as from what you have told me already here and on Twitter with
these 5 consecutive losses the system is in a new low area of drawdown.It happens and it's frustrating.

I may only have 2 posts to date on this forum but I have 10 years experience of short term day trading of futures , forex and oil,if I can help at all
in the future please ask.

May I wish you continued success.

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  #278 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received

Today the Dax trade will be from 11:00 to 16:00
direction **SHORT**

entry @ 6281

exit @

result

GFIs1

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  #279 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received

Chop Chop week with many news, high volatilty and bad trades.
Results:
One trade with a tiny plus of 9 points
Four trades with a stoploss of 30 points each
Weekly result minus 111 points

Was the most negative week since the system started..

Total twittered points from week 1 to week 25 now plus 684 points.

Have a great weekend

GFIs1

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  #280 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,626 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,420 given, 11,827 received


Today Dax short from 10:00 to 12:30

entry @ 6173

exit @ 6165

result plus 8 points

GFIs1

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