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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #2501 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
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Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9676
exit @ 9716
result -40 points

IB vol high -> risk high

GFIs1

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  #2502 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

This week had 3 trades

Two positive (+34 +65) points
and one negative (-40) points.
Weekly result 59 points
Points since week 1: 105

Extreme volatility this week with ECB decision.
But be alerted - next week FED (Wednesday)
plus Triple Witch Day on Friday.
Staying at the sidelines is better than to be roasted
if things are flu.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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  #2503 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 9988
exit @ 9972
result -16 points

IB vol high -> high risk

GFIs1

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  #2504 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

USA had this weekend change of Daylight Saving Time - 2 weeks ahead of Europe.
Do not forget US numbers as well as important announcements differ for
2 weeks until Europe has Summer Time again too

GFIs1

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  #2505 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9998
exit @ 9944
result 54 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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  #2506 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Be aware of FED decision today 19:00 CET
No change awaited - but heavy vola anyway.

GFIs1

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  #2507 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
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On Triple Witch (Friday) there will be no trade
as the risk is high to fail.

This week had 2 trades:
One negative -16 points
one positive 1 +54 points

Weekly result 38 points
Points since week 1: 143

GFIs1

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  #2508 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
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A short week with max. 2 trades

Dax short 10:30 to 13:00 (new June contract)

entry @ 10057
exit @ 10087 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

looks like the Dax needs to gear up this week

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  #2509 (permalink)
alexk1968
athens, greece
 
 
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GFIs1 View Post
A short week with max. 2 trades

Dax short 10:30 to 13:00 (new June contract)

entry @ 10057
exit @ 10087 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

looks like the Dax needs to gear up this week

Good morning,

it looked like a walzer setup anyway (entry long at 10:30 - 10049). Very confusing...

thanks,
alex

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  #2510 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hi @alexk1968

The Walzer long runs since 10:30 @ 10057
until 11:30

The start this morning had conflicting rules
at least with the Walzer one.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #2511 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Last day with volume this week.

Dax short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 10119
exit @ 101139
result -20 points

IB vol high (stop 20 points)

GFIs1

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  #2512 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

This week had
two negative trades (-30 - 20 points)

Weekly result -50 points
Points since week 1: +93

GFIs1

PS: Walzer points since week 1: 468
will be updated in the according thread

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  #2513 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

A short week to come also. Starting with a trade on Tuesday.

Not to forget that one year back exactly one day after Easter holidays
the new All Time High (ATH) in the Dax was seen.

Some uptrend is still here - so let's see

GFIs1

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  #2514 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

As announced here the details of the Walzer taken in the first quarter 2016:



GFIs1

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  #2515 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Happy Easter

This time many thanks to the readers of this journal.
Started more than four years back on Big Mike's journal contest it has now collected
more than 2500 posts. Plus more than 210K page views.
Amazing.
Was not foreseen at the beginning of the first post of the journal.
The journey here brought many insights and many discussion.
As well as new ideas - some were implemented or tested at least.
Thanks to the followers, readers and to @Big Mike for the great platform.
More to come for sure.

Now I encourage everyone to start a own journal and enjoy the positive moments
discussing trading ideas, flaws, improvements.
As there will start a new journal competition* during April this could be the starting
point for your fruitful trading in the near future.
To all other journal writers here: Good Luck!

GFIs1

* Watch for the announcements of Big Mike on first of April - link your journal
once in the thread and collect the thanks from your journal readers.

PS: I will take part in the contest again. But not for the prize. Just to encourage
traders in the forum to journal the trading travel. In case of winning a prize this
one will be handed over to the next in the list.

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  #2516 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
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Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax long 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9972
exit @ 9942 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

PS: ONE plane hijacking in Egypt - and boom

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  #2517 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 10072
exit @ 10102 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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  #2518 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax long 9:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9832
exit @ 9802 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol high

GFIs1

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  #2519 (permalink)
alexk1968
athens, greece
 
 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax long 9:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9832
exit @
result

IB vol high

GFIs1

Sorry, but posting a late entry (70min after), even on a free-of-charge - not signal providing journal, eliminates the whole value of this journal.

Better not posting late at all...

thanks,
alex

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  #2520 (permalink)
 grausch 
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alexk1968 View Post
Sorry, but posting a late entry (70min after), even on a free-of-charge - not signal providing journal, eliminates the whole value of this journal.

Better not posting late at all...

thanks,
alex

IMO that is only true if you follow his signals or try to reverse-engineer his method. I thought the point of the journal was to put down thoughts / track progress / have some accountability, etc.

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  #2521 (permalink)
alexk1968
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grausch View Post
IMO that is only true if you follow his signals or try to reverse-engineer his method. I thought the point of the journal was to put down thoughts / track progress / have some accountability, etc.

Agree, that is also the reason for GFI1 not being a signal provider, but

if you like to keep a track record (score), even thoughts and track progresses must have a degree of reliability and trustfulness.

IMO reliability is lost (or partially lost) if you post something after seeing a potentially successful progress of the move.

In my 15 year career (as a professional equity - not futures - trader), I have seen a LOT of supposed consistently winning system/methods etc. for future markets (especially s&p, dax and forex) with track records, which after investigation proved to be not so consistent winning...

Anyway, sorry if I sound disturbing.

thanks,
alex

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  #2522 (permalink)
 grausch 
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alexk1968 View Post
Agree, that is also the reason for GFI1 not being a signal provider, but

if you like to keep a track record (score), even thoughts and track progresses must have a degree of reliability and trustfulness.

IMO reliability is lost (or partially lost) if you post something after seeing a potentially successful progress of the move.

Well, most of the time @GFIs1 posts on time. It could be that he was not at his desk but still executed his orders. I sometimes execute trades from my phone, but you will never find me posting on forums from that tiny screen. Just too damn frustrating typing anything useful...


alexk1968 View Post
In my 15 year career (as a professional equity - not futures - trader), I have seen a LOT of supposed consistently winning system/methods etc. for future markets (especially s&p, dax and forex) with track records, which after investigation proved to be not so consistent winning...

Anyway, sorry if I sound disturbing.

thanks,
alex

I agree with you on the systems. Most of them are pure garbage. However, as traders we only have one person to be accountable to and that is ourselves. If @GFIs1 executes his trades as planned then any late postings to his journal should not matter. After all this journal is not for my benefit nor does it influence my trading in the slightest. I will however note that one late post does not make an entire journal unreliable or worthless.

In any case, I will leave things here. I doubt @GFIs1 needs me to defend his actions.

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  #2523 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Thanks for inputs...

As mentioned from the longtime followers - normally I post the trades before taking.
1) today I was on the move (there is some business to do as well) and had connection problems.
2) Nevertheless my Friday trades are nearly almost on 9:30 opposite to the IB 30min candle. So
the system is quite transparent.
Today it did not work and that is part of the system. I mentioned even in the post that IB was high
which calculates with some higher risk as well.
Goal of this thread is to document the rules over a longer period - and even sometimes some late post
of a trade might be written later than trade entered - it is to document the positive as the negative.

I hope to show the clear ups and downs of a system under different market conditions without changing
rules after every third negative trade.

So my two threads offering a constant transparent update showing how the signals work - now documented
4 years for this thread and nearly 1.5 years of the Walzer thread.

Every trader has his own point of view. Thus I encourage again to start a own journal here on futures.io
to see the stability and the longtime results. And moreover the problems arising while managing to trade
over a longer time period.

The highest pressure comes from outside as here things are open to many unknown readers and critics.
I welcome the discussion - otherwise the thread would not have been read so many times.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #2524 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
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Well thanks @grausch and at @alexk1968 who read my posts very carefully for their inputs.

As you know I am normally posting even before taking a trade. This is a journal to document one
of my two systems here on futures.io
Today I was on the move and had connection problems with the journal platform around the trading time.
The trade was like my Friday trades normally to take 9:30 in opposite direction of the first 30min candle.
Exactly that I made and wrote the entry, direction and the IB high fact which means higher risk for this
trade. Very transparent for the longtime readers.

I encourage again to open a own journal here on futures.io to see all the difficulties that arise from following the
own system with rules, taking and managing the trades as well as posting in the own journal. Not once, but over YEARS!

Having my two journals here with many readers I know very well about the pressure.
This journal here is over 4 years online and regularly supported and the Walzer journal has soon reached
1.5 years of input.

Making a system public needs some guts. Not changing the rules every third negative trade also.
But having it on and discussed gives a lot of power to not get out of the game.

Thanks for inputs and thanks also to the silent readers - much appreciated.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #2525 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Back to field one

This week had 3 trades,
all of them with stop loss.
Weekly result - 90 points
Points since week one: 3

GFIs1

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  #2526 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Today no trade to take: Friday range was over 150 points

Instead a Walzer might happen in this market of indecision.**

The relative high volume in the first 20 minutes in the Dax future
can be a result of the Panama Papers and thus some investments
may be transferred into other safe havens.
Of course such actions might take weeks to months and bring
some more uncertainty into the markets.

GFIs1

**edit 10:00 smells like a long Walzer is coming up

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  #2527 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

To the new readers/followers of this journal - during FIO journal contest in April:

This journal shows the trades following GFIs1 one trade per day rules.
Why is there no trade on a Tuesday and on a Thursday?
In normal weeks on Tuesday's and Thursday's the moves in the Dax are more
erratic and not so much predictable as on all other week days. After having
traded those days with little to no positive result I skipped those days to optimize
the time management.

As there is only ONE trade per day - this one has to be chosen very carefully.
Here the rules come in and give entry and exit time before taking a trade just
upon the Initial Balance - the 30 minutes after cash hour session starts and the
eventual up gap or down gap to previous day.
The rule set is quite complex and has several cascading rules for each day.
Thus it does not make sense to list them all here.

Seeing hopefully some more positive trades in April here.

GFIs1

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  #2528 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Attention to Draghi speech today:
markets can be shaken again...

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #2529 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

There is no trade today:
Yesterday range was 179 points.

The strong upmove on IB right now might result
in a Walzer - though the clouds in 30min and 1h
build a heavy resistance.

GFIs1

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  #2530 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

This week had no trades...
Points since week 1: 3

GFIs1

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  #2531 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax short 10:00 to 14:00

entry @ 9732
exit @ 9762
result - 30 p

IB vol high and volume on second candle very high
price at trade start within long Kumo (30min)

GFIs1

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  #2532 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax short 9:30 to 14:00

after a steep up gap this morning some cash in should be seen
with lower prices (does not mean gap closing though).

entry @ 9965
exit @ 10005 (SL)
result -40 points

IB vol high

GFIs1

magnetic 10000 was strong today

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  #2533 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Today no useful signal: IB opened and closed on the same price.
Volume thin.
Market indecision.
From point of cloud (30m) the support is strong.
Some more up is indicated.
But not after given rules in this thread for today.
So no trade taken.

GFIs1

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  #2534 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

This week had 2 trades - both with stop loss

Weekly result: - 70 points
Points since week 1: - 67

Tough first four months: twice under water result
since January. The system was tested several
times now.

GFIs1

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  #2535 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax during IB between two clouds: south of 30min and north of 60min.
Strange start with the 100 points gap down in pre open session.
30min cloud now thin - 60min cloud still strong support.
Gap to Friday's low now closed (9:35h).
Expecting green this morning.

Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 10014
exit @ 10092
result 78 points

IB volume good

GFIs1

"At least again back to field one"

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 GFIs1 
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Tomorrow ECB.
Yesterday a rally of nearly 220 points during cash hour.
Volumes quite high all day long.
Good company numbers as well as oil price not rising brings some support.

From the chart: 60min support still here. Weak phase only today. In the daily
chart the cloud is changing (support gone) from 21st to end of April.

Important: ECB decision tomorrow Thursday (13:45)!

Today - with new theme "higher high and lower low": the higher high has been seen - the lower
low is not for today ;-)

Dax short 10:30 to 15:30h

entry @ 10371
exit @ 10401 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

NEW: goal for today: 10266

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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My longtime followers here know about the importance about every Weekday for the system
in this thread. Let's see some special reading after 4 years of using the rules:

Normal behavior per day in the Dax morning to early afternoon (before US opens):
Monday: money flowing in - after IB some up movement highly possible
Tuesday: low volume - indecision - eventually following the Monday trend
Wednesday: often a turn in of the two previous day's movement
Thursday: low volume - indecision
Friday: last decisions of the week - higher volume - trend following from Thursday

Abnormal behavior:
In some weeks we see very different volatility sometimes that are totally different to
above mentioned "normality".
Often on Monday nothing special happens. But - zoook! - on Tuesday the price is going
through the ceiling. High volatility with high volume.
And on Wednesday - sleeping day almost all time.
NOW: on Thursday - same thing as on Tuesday. Not speaking about direction. But the
show is going on there. And not on Friday.

Result: If there is a Tuesday with high volume and vola - Wednesday had nothing to bid.
But Thursday comes into play with reaction.

Of course there are special weeks with long holidays like Friday off or Monday off or both.
That affects of course the weekly plan.

Maybe we can learn something of this 4 year experience: to put some weight on special days in
the week that are not expected.

Outlook for the rest of this week from above:
Tomorrow (ECB) some more movement expected. Friday will be the slow day instead!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Here comes the update of the Weekday results from 2012 (January) until today.
In the first year 2012 the system was working every day. During 2013 I have seen
that Tuesday and Thursday did not earn real points. Both days were having costs
where the results did not show green.
Thus both days were omitted and on full weeks only Monday, Wednesday and Friday
took part in the game.
Of course there are short weeks or some holidays that influence this Weekday takings.
Here the rules are quite clear about. But on some Tuesdays (first after holiday for example)
or Thursday (last before a long holiday) are respected also. Those days get extra points
when circumstances allow it.

Concentrating first on Monday, Wednesday and Friday the results look like this:



We can see that Wednesday is normally the best day with this system (short nearly always).
BUT: on those special weeks like mentioned above - we might concentrate on Thursday when
Tuesday is moving real strongly.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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According to last 2 posts there is a short Thursday trade:

Dax short 9:30 to 11:30

entry @ 10474
exit @ 10459
result 15 points

IB vol good

Attention: ECB day

GFIs1

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 choke35 
Germany
 
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fyi:

0745AM/1345CET ECB Announcement
0830AM/1430CET Press Conference

Presser webcast: Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 10426
exit @ 10425
result 1 point

IB vol ok

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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After this shaky week we see 4 trades:

3 (nearly ) positive trades (78 + 15 + 1 points)
1 negative trade with SL - 30 points
Weekly points: 64
Points since week 1: -3

Discussion on thread here
Gains still at field one.
System did not work consistently (like in the past) during these
past 16 weeks.
No rule changes were made though.
Money management prevented from bigger losses.
On some days the rules worked but did not take out the maximum
of the moves seen.

Chances are still to see some more normal weeks again.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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As we are in the FIO journal contest 2016 I would like to review shortly
the total results of both journals here - updated since 2011 and
late 2014 respectively.

The GFIs1 system was introduced in 2011 and the Walzer came in 2014.
Both systems were positive over the periods.

Overview:



For those who would like to give a thank in the competition thread:
Here is the direct link in case and thanks for pushing the button!



As said - the prize will be handed over to next candidate if I win one of the
prizes offered by Mike and TST.
I am humbled because I got so many thanks already in my journals.

Thanks to all the followers - the journal kept me always busy online and disciplined

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax IB shows lower lows.

Dax short 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 10333
exit @ 10322
result @ 11

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 10272
exit @ 10302 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

edit 10:00
Made an error here and restart short 11:30 to 15:30
as yesterday's range was 178 points...

entry @ 10306
exit @ 10336
result -30 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Yesterday a range of 200 points does not allow a normal Friday trade today.

A Walzer is probable. IB volume and second candle up to now with high volume.
Price is sitting between clouds in 60min 120min and 240 min. Means some
chop - no real trend to be seen right now.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Here the cloud as support and at same time as resistance - looking at 120min and 240min Dax charts:
Looks like price will chop until near end of next week.





GFIs1

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 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
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Hi @GFIs1,

I hope you know that I am a fan and a supporter, and have been for some time now.

But I often am a little puzzled about how and why you reach your trade decisions. I know that you have your rules, and I'm sure that if I reviewed several years of your posts, I would pick them up. But when you post a chart, even with a very brief explanation of what you are looking at, it tells me more, right away.

It's up to you, and I'm not asking you to go through every little thing every time, or even go through it at all, for that matter.... but I feel I learn more when I can see what someone is seeing. For example, the last post, with chart, was interesting and revealing.

I recognize that starting to go into a lot of detail also takes up more time, and posting is not anyone's main priority.

Just a thought. I'm enjoying your journal as is, and plan to keep reading one way or the other, anyway....

Bob.

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @bobwest

Thanks many times for following and good input in my journal here.
Indeed it is hard to describe the different rule sets given for any day.
As the system proposes is to enter and exit after the first 30min IB decision.
All the rules are about found of some working pattern 4 years ago when the
journal started. Since then I had only changed stop loss settings but not main
rules. Thus it is really not easy to "see" what is the reason for triggering a trade.
Most of the patterns are really for the given weekday under some conditions
by looking at previous day range (cash hours) and eventually announcements
of the same day (to prevent from be lifted out by strong moves as well the upcoming
holidays, end of month, triple witch etc.)

That makes the trading plan quite complicate to read. Even for me
As you are from other time zone I assume that you might be not aware that my
posts are developing ones: I announce in IB time the full trade with direction etc.
and then I enter the trade as it develops. Finally a patchwork post is written there
and by reading it later it does not show how it did develop.

You are right that the insight into a "system" is not easy to transmit and even more
difficult to understand from outside. (It is much easier in my Walzer thread - as the
rules are very short and clear).

So I must admit that in some cases when I have little time I do mistakes in taking
the *right* trading rule. That leads to negative results - and are frustrating even for
the followers.
A nice example of failure you can read in my next post here...

As there are many followers I will try to show more of the thoughts - and still bring
the "clean" journal for those who are interested in naked numbers only.
So I will be more clear when a trade occurs and when not.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Yesterday it was Friday - THE LAST of THE MONTH

Note to me: Last of the MONTH!!!
Our friend from the ratcave would have said - I knew it already since a long time: just watch the calendar
CHEERS!

I was quite distracted with a project that had nothing to do with trading. So I was between phone calls and meetings.
And still trading here - to be clear: NOT taking THE TRADE and following my other work.

Coming back and starting to analyze the day I have seen that I overlooked a major thing in my trading plan.
Which is written since a long time though:
Yesterday - yes Friday AND the last of month - has a special rule: This is to take a trade in the reverse direction of
a Friday (so in the same direction as IB 9:00 to 9:30 showed) from 9:30 to 16:30...
That easy. BUT: the rule did not say in which importance it will be for that given special day. Friday and Last Of Month
is very rare - and I had not much of them seen in my trading.

The trade was not taken (as mentioned in the post) because the previous day range did not allow). In fact that was
the false rule order:
NOW I fixed that list and the standing of this rule: ON TOP!
Back to my sad detection in the evening:

Given I had seen the *right* trade written in my trading plan it should have given this result:
Dax short 9:30 to 16:30
entry @ 10266
exit @ 10111
result 155 points
SL normal - 30 points
No discussion - that IS a good result - the best since January.
But it does not count as I have not taken that one!

At least my order of taking trades has got a slight shift and next time such occasion will not be given away.

That is trading: Sometimes it is luck to fish some points - sometimes it is a pity to miss obvious settings!

GFIs1

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  #2551 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 10099
exit @ 10152
result 53 points

IB vol good

From 1h chart 10209 Kijun Sen might be touched today.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades - one positive and two with SL

Positive +11 points
Negative -60 points
Weekly result -49 points

Points since week 1: -52

Two mistakes in one week are too much.
The trading rule priority is now corrected
for Friday the last in the month.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Illustration of the long today:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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The FIO Journal Contest 2016 is history!

Thanks for your support in the contest thread.
Only with you I won the first place.

Many thanks to @Big Mike who made all possible
to organize this contest even under very
difficult moments - which is a special effort
and gets a special memory on this forum.

I hope the friends that were putting their
journals into the public view had a good time
and will continue to contribute.
Especially with the profits for themselves.

Good journals - and trades
GFIs1

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  #2555 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 16:30

entry @ 9910
exit @ 9892
result 18 points

IB vol good

Tomorrow closed - Friday normal day

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:00 to 16:30

entry @ 9806
exit @ 9776 SL
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

Volume broke down - no support in the market
Watch for lower prices next week too

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades

Two positive (53 + 18 points)
one negative -30 points SL
Weekly result +41 points

Points since week 1: -11

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today's trade idea was finally not bad.
The US numbers were interfering and the long did not start as foreseen.
But finally the lift after the numbers started quickly and ended with a high of @ 9924
or closed @ 9903 at 16:30 (planned end of trade) which was nearly 100 points
higher than the entry.
Anyway - the market made its own thing today with not so big volumes.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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No trade today - Friday Hi/Lo range (cash hours) was 188 points.
Dax is in 1h Kumo. If upper boundary @ 9992 is taken out then 10048
can be reached.

Good volume up to now: 25k contracts (10:10h)

A long Walzer is developing - let's see 10:30

GFIs1

PS 11:30
All above went like a charm.
First Walzer leg good!
Second to check after a special Walzer pattern... (discussed in the Walzer thread)

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9990
exit @ 9979
result 11 points

IB vol high (means higher risk)

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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After IB price ended within yesterday's day range (cash hours)
the entry will be as announced 10:30. Just letting it play out
to stay above 10000 and then starting to head down < 10000
to 9850...

Here the preview:



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 stef 
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9850 ! Well done !

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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thx @stef

the goal for yesterday was only reached today - but with quite a strange way until the previewed
price.
The plunge in the afternoon had quite strong volume.
In the chart update we see a short Walzer that was running and is to find in the other thread:




GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax long 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9775
exit @ 9872
result 97 points

IB vol high!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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This week had two trades

both positive (11 + 97 points)
weekly result 108 points
Points since week 1: 97

GFIs1

PS:
2 positive Walzer trades in this week
(55 + 48 points) weekly result = 103 points

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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After the nice Tuesday slide after Dax holiday from Monday which I unfortunately could not play...
a Wednesday trade is coming up.
Scenario: Price plays in a battle around the important 10k without any real direction.
Trend still short with goal of 9733 in this cycle - but maybe not reaching it today.
Main point for entry is if IB getting back closing over 9843 (Low Yesterday) or not. Appropriate rule will be taken then.
Long ceiling until 10:30 is 9912.

Dax short 10:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9839
exit @ 9869 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol near high

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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happens on Thursday?
Normally after a Tuesday with high vola and high volume then a Thursday mirrors the
previous Tuesday and makes more range than on Wednesday and on Friday.
So some look at tomorrows movements might make sense!

Good trades

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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Posts: 5,462 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,339 given, 11,452 received

Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9905
exit @ 9877
result 28 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9905
exit @ 9877
result 28 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

Nice timing Maestro. The 'Thanks' button still doesn't work for me in here so Thanks for your posts.

Travel Well
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 GFIs1 
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This short week had 2 trades

one negative -30 points (SL)
one positive +28 points
weekly result -2 points
Points since week one: 95

Despite the not taken Tuesday short* (first day after holiday) with some directional positive
points and good volume the result is ok as the money management worked well again.

GFIs1

*theoretical result with Tuesday Gap rule: 170 pts - yep it did not count!

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 9832
exit @ 9846
result 14 points

IB vol high - high risk

GFIs1

haha - what a roller coaster!
With some luck still positive.
And parallel Walzer gave 20 points

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 GFIs1 
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Looks like a perfect day for short in the Dax.
As noted in chart of last weekend:

Tomorrow Wednesday IFO numbers 10:00h!

Good trades

GFIs1

Edit: The contrary from above:
.. 300 points up from the low - what the market did in no time but with high volume..
9:00 to 9:30: 10733 contracts
9:30 to 10:00 11598 contracts
which is impressing

There was only one red candle the in the run up. All others were green. Not even a Walzer
signal came up. Very interesting day. Did not take any trade as by the rules.

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 GFIs1 
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IFO Day with numbers 10:00:

Dax long 10:30 to 16:00

entry @ 10166
exit @ 10210
result 44 points

IB vol low (high risk)

GFIs1

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 mrblond89 
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GFIs1 View Post
IFO Day with numbers 10:00:

Dax .. 10:30 to 16:00

entry @ 10166
exit @
result

IB vol low (high risk)

GFIs1

Long or short? I am assuming long but you did not mention it!

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  #2575 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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mrblond89 View Post
Long or short? I am assuming long but you did not mention it!

long...
The direction is always given by the direction of the 30m candle after IFO number - today 10:00 to 10:30.
Exception is on Friday where the direction is opposite at the same time.

thanks for the missing puzzle piece

GFIs1

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  #2576 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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We face a special combination of days over this weekend:

Friday: 2nd to last trading day before last of month - no Friday rule
Monday: US Memorial Day - no trades here...
Tuesday: Last day of month - Special Friday rule

Without discipline no gains to make!
Looking forward to pull the trigger the right way.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 16:30

entry @ 10250
exit @ 10280 (SL)
result -30

IB vol low - higher risk

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades:

Two positive: 14 + 44 points
One negative: -30 points (SL)
Weekly result 28 points
Points since week 1: 123

GFIs1

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  #2579 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Today US memorial day: US stock exchanges are closed.

No trades here as normally volumes are lower in the Dax.
The day trade rules do not allow a trade: the system does
not work with low volumes. Prices may jump without
any news during such periods.

Tomorrow Tuesday "Last of the month" with a trade.
And Wednesday again.

GFIs1

Edit 9:30
First candle with 6503 contracts - but NO direction...

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:30

entry @ 10315
exit @ 10285 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

Edit: Reason for the morning drop were the very bad numbers of VW's 1st quarter

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 10226
exit @ 10256 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 choke35 
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fyi:

ECB Announcement: 0745ET/1345CET
Press Conference: 0830ET/1430CET

The webcast is: Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions
For the first time, the ECB also tries Youtube Live streaming (beta): Webcasts: ECB monetary policy decisions

The meeting of the Government Council takes place in Vienna this time.

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  #2583 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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..for triple witch on Friday 17th of June (13h for the Dax).
This means that in the coming 10 days price will find the optimal level for this.
The magic point is again - who asked? - the 10k!

So looking forward to the next 2 weeks, leaning out of the window:
Next week some pushing up again. Then taking the gains and pushing price down
under the 10k level again.
Result for triple witch previewed here: <10k

Let's see - good trades!

GFIs1

PS: After having the new contract in view - do not forget: the volumes will go
sharply back over summer holiday time.

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  #2584 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:30

entry @ 10248
exit @ 10262
result 14 points

IB vol low (high risk)

GFIs1

edit: the US numbers brought a nice Walzer again.
See in appropriate thread

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  #2585 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades

Two negative 2 x stop loss: -60 points
One positive +14 points
Weekly result -46 points
Points since week 1: 77


Walzer result this week 141 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 10113
exit @ 10107
result -6 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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The long of today was not so bad - as direction indicated in the morning was finally right.
Outlook for tomorrow: back again in the morning to around 10266. (Fib)

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
Outlook for tomorrow: back again in the morning to around 10266. (Fib)
GFIs1

Move came quite quickly as foreseen. High was 10277.
Means a plus of 1.27%.

No Walzer in sight.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 10242
exit @ 10227
result 15 points

IB vol low to ok

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9954
exit @ 9924 (SL)
result -30

IB vol very high (15732 contracts)
risk high

Price again under 10k (as mentioned in post )

GFIs1

edit 10:09
stopped out (down move has note ended yet) but a Walzer signal came up at the same time

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades in high risk area:

one positive: 15 points
two negative: -6 -30 (SL) points
weekly points: -21

Points since week 1: 56

GFIs1

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  #2592 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This morning started with a big gap down of 132 points.
The IB volume with 15494 contracts in the first 30 minutes
shows the nervous market.

Last Friday had a range of 215 points.
The volumes in Friday morning were quite big too. This is normal a
week before triple witch - finding the desired base of finishing
the June contract.

Today no trade foreseen.

In next post a quick overview in a 1h chart that shows the interesting
levels.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #2593 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax reached a intermediate resistance at the opening. (see blue spiral):




Price might get a back a bit higher before next longer short movement.
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax still on the down path. The gap of yesterday not closed.
This morning in the first 10 min. after opening still high volumes:
7,5k which is normally done for IB 30min was reached after 12min.
Price in the middle of nowhere.
No support in reach...

Triple witch this Friday for the Dax @ 13:00 CET.
Here change on the new September contract will be on Friday.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9596
exit @ 9616 (SL)
result -20 points

IB vol high - high risk

Last trade with June contract

20:00 CET FED decision

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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New Dax September contract has started.
At 13:00h the June Dax futures contract will end.
After the strong correction of the last 10 days we can see a price of around
9580 for that contract.
The 10k is far from reality and will not be back easily. Depending on the outcome
of the Brexit of course.
Uncertainty in the markets will hold longer - either way what Britain will vote.
This means more risk even on normally strong systems.
As mentioned in earlier posts - the summer holidays will stay with lower volumes
as every year. Therefore staying at the sidelines is not a bad decision.

IB volume today is strong:
June 30m IB 1439 contracts
Sep 30m IB 11439 contracts
nice pair

Of course no trade on triple witch here.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had one trade:

negative -20 points
Weekly result -20 points
Points since week 1: 36

GFIs1

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  #2598 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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After new positive statistics of voting in UK over the weekend about
non-Brexit Asian markets jumped up ~3%.
In pre opening the Dax made a huge gap up to the 9900 area.
Some banking titles gained over weekend more than 5%.
We need to be vigilant to trade during this strong political week
with polls on Thursday.
Markets may shake quite strongly. Staying at the sidelines is
recommended.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 9911
exit @ 9881 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol 11139 HIGH

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Day before Brexit poll: results will be officially announce on Friday 07:00 CET

Today a up gap. Again above 10k line which might be seen again crossed today.
Careful trading - volumes are not high.

Dax short 9:30 to 14:30
entry @ 10060
exit @ 10090 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol low (6965 contracts)

GFIs1

attention: Yellen speach this afternoon - with surely no result...

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