Hi @tturner86
Unfortunately there is no way to start it for me..
Was talking to different people of TopstepTrader but they have no possibility to let me trade the Dax during the
combine. They say not having the datafeed. But the funded traders do have...
Maybe I have to wait long enough?
Good trades
GFIs1
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Yes - I thought about it too.
The one thing which is hindering me: I have a system based on patterns in the Dax
that I found over the years. For a different instrument they are not usable.
Plus my time to trade and to invest for a search for patterns in another instrument
is very limited...
..a trader's dilemma
GFIs1
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Too high vola to trade here the normal system trades...
Monday had Hi/Lo of 380 and Tuesday of 358 points in the Dax.
This means for GFIs1 to switch into the other new Dax thread with journal**
- and play the Walzer :-)
As on Friday will be the triple witch and the December contract will end @ 13:00h
I will switch TOMORROW to the march15 future contract.
..can not take place - first we have had a high vola week and yesterday's
Hi/Lo during cash hours was 173 points.
So no friday trade :-)
Today triple witch: at 13:00 the Dax december contract will end.
Some bigger moves before that event is very possible.
High volume during IB now in the march contract: > 10K
GFIs1
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Hi @pvlee
From now until after new year we will have a very low volume period.
My experience about that time: only losses - as some "bigger hands" can shake you out with one wipe.
I recommend to read the futures.io (formerly BMT) posts or some books about trading and let the live show to others.
Happy Christmas
GFIs1
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I like this appropriate title because you earn it so much.
Thanks for your courage to give us vision, info and trade possibilities.
Wish you a new fantastic year 2015 in your private life with family and wine-activities.
But also new courage to have another winning challenge over our prodigy product the "DAX"
Mokum
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With this high risk trade ends a turbulent year in the Dax.
Only some points squeezed out of this undecided long day.
Tomorrow no trade - exchange will close 14:00!
I came up with the same idea because my account went too low and now see the others found it useful too ... just one action per day. New day new picture. Thank to this approach my account survived and I started to finish my months usually nicely profitable. I trade YM.
Good trading :-)
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Monday had a Hi/Lo of 296 points (until 16:50h). **
This means a heavy drop and no trades for 2 days.
So we will have a look at the High vola thread.
Before Friday we can not take a normal trade here.
It is always better to sit on hands than see the points
going down the river...
GFIs1
**final move 17:30: 325 points
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The correction time is not yet over. After a first one (mentioned a bit earlier here)
now the second correction is on its way.
A glance at the bigger picture:
From Ichimoku chart we see that today price already dives into daily cloud.
At this place the cloud is NOT thick and the bottom is horizontal. This means
that a cloud crossing seems highly possible.
From that scenario a stronger slip seems to be the response:
From ATH to mid Kumo a slip of 750 points are to count - price 9250.
Another 750 points down which is a normal movement in the Dax Ichimoku
chart - we reach @ 8500.
Looks not bad to see this scenario if price really crosses Kumo within the next 4 to 6
weeks.
Some points out of the real world: low oil price (bottom not reached too), Greece,
yearly company results (bad outlook means tax reducing options), shaking
forex markets etc.
Good trades
GFIs1
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Tuesday - still in hi vola - we can find a ONE new pattern of the
"Wiener Walzer":
First - previous days must have shown more than 150 points during cash hours
Second - the BODY of a 30 min candle has to show more than 50 points
Third - …
Might see another pattern like this today again.
Just be aware of strong moves these days.
GFIs1
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A lot of money has been evaporated and the markets are still in high alarm mode.
Even some well known brokers were broken this week and are now out of business
or in a desaster mode. Some more will show up with the same problem next week.
Thus: as mentioned earlier it is better to sit on hands than to burn the account.
Today we have seen a up spike in the Dax in the afternoon.
Looks like it was Draghi's announcement to get the last drop out of any money printing machine. :sarcastic:
Draghi's announcement here:
In fact we had a first green candle of 52 points …
GFIs1
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Do you have any idea or suggestion how to react on it personally? I think euro has a potential to go down quite a lot still but going long US dollar is quite dangerous already. I can think of going long gold versus the euro as a protection hedge. Or maybe just buying DAX index and leaving it for some time?
Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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..was skipped due to the open tsunami Draghi had made public yesterday. Range was too high for a today trade. New ATH's were nearly assured.
Now the moment could come where some bigger players cashin in some parts.
Next week maybe.
Looking at Ichimoku cloud of the daily: cloud support is shrinking again.
A good sign that the air up there is very thin.
Looking to monday for a next normal trade.
GFIs1
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Thanks Alex for the question: my personal meaning about forex is quite negative. But not only in these days but
always.
You can not see the real volume in forex markets.
Some very big players move pairs around - especially in lower volume time of the day and can make hard and
unforeseen moves.
Trading and intraday trading (as the Dax) means currency moves out there do not have a mortal impact on companies.
Thus pricing of the futures of a basket of companies can not make this roller coaster as currency pairs do.
So I am playing in high risk instruments (with not so big leverage). Playing the forex game can be tempting but
it is not very foreseeable.
As a personal recommendation: Stay out of any market if you feel not ready to see "known patterns" or business
as usual. In these volatile times a lot of small market participants are driven out of the game. If they were burned
to strongly they will never come back.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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Well, I basically meant long-term hedging strategy, not intra-day trading or even swing or medium term trading in forex and gold. But probably Euro is the least of your worries, given that Franc is pointing to the sky, so pardon me for this intrusion!
Well - it is not bad to think about every investment in local currency versus trading in a different currency.
So a hedge to the CHF (in my case) of the total amount of the traded EUR futures can be interesting.
As it is a hassle to trade on different accounts and to manage all of them with a individual hedging..
I prefer it the easy way and forget about the currency.
GFIs1
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Thanks @CPRICE76
I will adjust range of course when prices will rest on this level.
Maybe the stop loss settings need a brush over too.
This needs some more data though.
GFIs1
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Even the rule to NOT trade today
I followed the adequate wednesday rule to see what would have happened:
entry short 10687, exit 10688: result minus 1 point.
Even that the price made nearly 150 points down to come to nearly the same level
Anything goes in these crazy moves..
Better to stay at the sidelines for sure!
Good trades
GFIs1
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note: last of month, gap to yesterday and friday
gap closed..
GFIs1
Comment 11:55
Was sitting on the false rule combination. Very rare constellation (had only once in 3 years).
But no excuse! This is trading.
For those with shorts: stay in until 14:30 ;-)
Good trades!
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STOPPED the trade before taking it
11:27 some bigger players jumped in and pushed price in ONE minute with 2286 contracts
from 10823 to 10875.. (52 points)
not a normal price development.
A descriptive post of this will follow.
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Difficult weekly start with high volume selling. First 30 minutes had a volume
of 15192.
Dax long 10:00 to 14:00
entry @ 10644
exit @ 10675
result 31 points
Here is the chart. This was the moment a normal trade with rule and direction was no longer valid.
In the Dax this is a rare occurence. Watching small details can omit some losses if done properly though.
GFIs1
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Hi @GFIs1,
My question was not clear so let me re-phrase my question, what is the duration for initial balance for the dax? 0800 till 0900 or 0900 till 0930? I would assume from 0900 till 0930 so that there is balance once the underlying start trading.
All my rules and trades are connected with the cash hours (09:00 to 17:30).
So the initial balance IB I am using is from 09:00 to 09:30 - correct!
From there the very first trade can start the earliest.
Latest exit is after my rules 16:30.
The time before and after cash hours are not of interest as the volumes are
most of the time low and some market participants can move the price
unpredictible.
This thread is about a pattern which is different for every weekday.
Volume, Hi/Lo of previous day etc. are all exclusively calculated on cash
hour data. Hope this helps.
GFIs1
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..can not happen!
Hi/Lo today (until 16:15h) was 299 points.
And volume in ONE 30min candle today was 13802 contracts (!)
Looks like out of any normal situation.
Anyway we might see a new "Wiener Walzer" again tomorrow?
Just be aware.
Then next Friday: be alerted that next Monday will be a US holiday.
This makes things delicate. Of course there will be a normal trade
if Thursday is reacting normally.
GFIs1
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Hi @haochik
There is no profit target - but ONE defined exit time - every one on the exact 30 minute during cash hours.
The stop is 30 points. Not changing normally. Only in difficult rare moments.
I have never calculated a rr ratio. Look at the posts here in this thread at the end of the year. You can see the results.
The Dax is the only instrument I trade.
GFIs1
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I quickly checked the posted numbers:
Max drawdown was 40 points minus. This was a test to see how stops at 30, 33 and 40 points
will get us - this was over 3 and a halve year of system.
My best trade was 193 points in one trade: 15th october 2014 - just check it here in the journal.
GFIs1
just to point out: a trade HERE is only within ONE day during cash hours - never over night!
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Did the 40 points loss bother you?
I means trading DAX can give you lots of ups and downs and the downs can be very devastating.
How did you cope with those losses?
Winning is winning and losing is losing - does not matter really - it is part of the trading.
As it is as business owner too.
But OPTIMIZING the losers is primordial.
This is a long process depending on your own trading strategy.
My 30 points SL is a result of a lot of trial and error.
But it works like a charm for me..
Setting stops wide enough to not be in the noise and near
enough to not lose a lot is the main thing of "Money Management".
My goals are longterm oriented - so some negative results in a row
do not make me crazy.
GFIs1
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I read your post you said you use 30 min chart. If I use shorter timeframes like 1min or 5 min, should I still use 30 points stop? Or use a tighter one?
Very, very good statement of what's important.... and I think the principles stated here apply equally to any trading orientation, and any timeframe, just making the appropriate adjustments to fit your own situation.
Bob.
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This answer is quickly said:
The 30 point stop loss is working for ME. For my system. It has a lot of optimizing process behind.
It does not depend on my timeframe - but depends on my Trading System.
If it works for you is with high probabilty said: NO - it will not!
As I do not know your trading system.
My proposition for you: try to find the best place NEAR the noise but not IN the noise.
Good trades
GFIs1
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I watch your journal for some time now.
Following your rules with discipline is a major task.
Also the idea of one trade per day is important, in order to avoid costly overtrading.
The biggest problem (with me at least) is the stop-loss placement. Is it possible for you, when mentioning your entry points, to mention your stop-loss point also? Or do you have fixed stop-loss points? (eg 20 or 30 or 40 points)
That made the price balancing around ATH and after witch minute (13:00h) it gave a spike up
in taking a sneak preview on what the financial ministers in Brussels will decide after 16h today
concerning extra money to make the Greeks happy. This all went with extraordinary volume..
Looking forward for more normal markets to come.. 12K and more in Dax with this 0% interest
money will not be astonishing.
GFIs1
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Here the chart of this extraordinary move which took out many (buy) stops of course on the upside.
A very strong volume and a extreme spike in the first five minutes made it not easy to even follow.
My point of view: there will be more such "experiments" like this - so it is best to have hard stops or stay at
the sideline when important political decisions are ahead or some big players are boxing small traders out.
GFIs1
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..because of the rally (215 points intraday) on Friday.
Price needs to find new acceptance in this thin area - but obviously some more bullish moves
are ahead.
Start into this week with good volume. Looking forward on Wednesday.
Depending on some quick news a new Wiener Walzer might come up.
GFIs1
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Difficult market to trade, but hey this is what ES has been several years in a row while keep pushing ATHs on little to no volume. Important is not to call tops just because volume is low. It will go on negative volume. Just because Masters of the Universe said so..
Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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We had a no-pullback run yesterday, and this morning we got new ATH and no attempts to get some free-riders off the train with a hefty fine.. I believe some run on lows is needed. 11306.5 was gunned already, so it may be it but 30m chart suggest 11305.5 must be touched...
Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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..thanks @xelaar - this happened too.
This afternoon BIP numbers US and a positive Germany on Greek support.
Volume lower - but price can easily move under these circumstances.
GFIs1
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Exactly so - a) it is last friday of month and b) we had germans greek support around 11:00 and c) for
special days like this (with US BIP to jump over) we need more wiggle room.
But 40 points held fortunately.
It was not sure when the rocket started again - but the numbers need to be very "polished" for end of
month for certain reasons I do not know :-)
Good trades
GFIs1
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This journal started three years ago on February 18th, 2012.
So a we got a complete collection of regular trades.
And more than 125 thousand page views.
…
Thanks to all readers and for comments.
GFIs1
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