The reason what pushed FDAX higher was the release af the Bank Of England inflation report.This is the danger of holding positions through economic releases. Some times it pays of ( ie you held a short going in to IFO the other week ) and sometimes it does not pay off ( Like today and the BOE Report ).
The following 2 users say Thank You to CPRICE76 for this post:
I am a very respectful follower from you but do not follow you in the trade practice. I do it my way )
BUT! I follow the 3 years of your trades with all the fascinating answers and helpful critics.
And you are very very helpful in my trading.
I wonder now If you have to follow your rules so strictly:
It can be sometimes very attractive to start for example 10 min. before that 9.30=IB or wait 10 min (or more) after 9.30 or whatever your start time is. Depending on what is going on!
Also it looks to me sometimes very attractive to stop a trade earlier then given
because the profit is on that moment attractive high. So waiting till given time
will 90% sure give a lower result. Even if the stop is 2 hours earlier. So what!
In fact this changes in the margin don,t change your rules.
Only the use of the rules more flexible.
It is the same as that sometimes the tuesday or thursday is attractive as a
predictable day next to the now used Mon/Wed/Fri. Use them sometimes if they look attractive!
And then last but the least:
Last 12 of nov you had a painful almost sadistic loss day what had to be a
comfortable win! You are of course completely right to say: "That is trading"
BUT! Knowing that the "Big Players" like to shake us out by going a while the opposite way and you on that day have strong facts for a bearish day can put "That Day" the stop 10-15 higher. Yes it can bring you that 15 pts loss extra! But the probability will give you over maximum 10-15 times a year that this happens a positive result.
I want to congratulate you already for this 2014 result.
It will NOT Go down the 1000 even with a lot of bad luck. I am sure )
Fantastic to see you have a third consistent year with your GFI-way.
Happy with your existence on this threat and your willingness to share it.
Mokum in Thailand (already 15 years)
The following 4 users say Thank You to mokum for this post:
Thank you very much for following the thread: you are a early adopter.
You are totally right about your findings!
Now:
Even it seems that this thread is about "Daytrading!" it is NOT.
I was searching for a profitable system that will give in high probable
moments some points.
With NO surveillance and with no interventions and with no rule exceptions.
Thus my trades are programmed and taken @ market at the indicated times.
Everyone can read in the 30min chart the open or close - and that are my
trades too - exactly there.
I am only deciding in the morning after seing the bigger picture how my
stop will stay. The rest is then following the rules and I am not even sitting
at my screen.. therefore sometimes late response after a trade was stopped out
or the end of the trade (also programmed to the second) has taken place.
In fact this maybe archaic approach had worked in shaky situations the same
as in calm moments. Of course there are weeks or months that are not
to compare with the year before - but the final yearly result is quite stable
over these 3 years.
That quite simple approach gives me a lot of free time to work on other
projects - and it is the best for the nerves, health and for NOT being involved
in the markets all the time.
My personal experience to take trades at other times than the system indicated
was not more successful and fixed tons of potential free minutes to plan other pleasures.
The only thing not covered in this thread is the stacking up, risk and money control
with more than one contract etc. This is well thought through: Only trading one
contract all the weeks and months are finally to compare over the years.
We have arrived finally at 3 years of data now.
For sure there are tons of possible optimization points to think of - I will maybe
make some small changes concerning Tuesday and Thursday rallies.
At last: the working system is not bad to let it cruise on semi automate. Some
short preparation in the morning is the core work. As PARETO said with his
20/80 rule: Most optimized!
Feel free to comment this and ask more - it is one of the MAIN trader's concern
to go full 100% in daytrading or to do it only while the markets are moving
sort of predictable.
GFIs1
The following 6 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I agree with not overoptimalize everything. Have the same simple rules. Sometimes working sometimes took out by a tick, but make a overoptmalize system means betting the historical. The key here as you told, the 10 minutes prep, to see the big picture, and not about to right or wrong by 1-2 tick... Yes it could be hurtfull, but at the end working out perfectly. So I take my vote to keep the view, attach some mover if you think it is useful, but do not break the concept (I do know you don't want to ... )
offtopic:
I am saying this, because I am almost doing the same. If I right, I am right, and I am happy with it (If I am wrong, the day trading part is coming ) but every time, when I tried to overthink entries, or find all the winners, best winners etc... I always failed in numbers instead of consistency...
..exactly @matevisky!
The main experience is: you NEVER can pick the bottom to buy and the top to sell...
So taking out important points in a previewed trend IS the life vest in this game!
Even some months of sideways in the money account have to be sit out -
and some few movers let you progress in no time after.
Have a great weekend and enjoy
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
you,re right if you apologized that this kind of questions you should not do.
Especially because almost everything of what GFI is doing you can find at the very beginning
of this thread (first page, include the rules!)
I read the whole thread on 2 long sundays and it was really worthwhile.
It costs you maybe 15 min or less to do that and it brings you triple )
You can also follow some very useful webinars on video from FT71 (futurestrader71)
Mokum
The following user says Thank You to mokum for this post:
You,re answer did me blushing.
At first because i saw you,re trading as daytrading and that makes it different
to approach and to understand. So it,s NOT!
Also Matevisky confirmed that by saying : " If I am wrong, the day trading part is coming "
Secondly because you,re way of thinking with "us" and answering some questions are really good.
I like to sit behind my 4 screens and look to what is happening in the world with a tweetdeck and stocktwits following others and with the economic agenda (MT5 and/or Forexfactory) waiting for the unexpected.
Daytrading Dax, CL, ES and sometimes a currency (like we had last weeks JPY) gives you many daytrades to step in and mostly quick out.
BUT: It is stressy and brings not that result you,re hoping for.
So another way with consistency is yours. That,s the complete opposite and reasons to step over.
I also want to thank Matevisky for his reaction.
To be honest i had the impression that he, like me, worked
similar like you do, but changing some of your rules to his own. Like me)
But his answer is confirming that it doesn,t bring more to change
the rules within their margins.
And then a private question (similar to Cprice) what i normally no like to do and will accept
a refusal for the fully 100%
Do you use the time outside of this GFI trades for other trading activities or are
you a life lover in the broadest sense of the word?
The most positive of this GFI prediction trading is that it takes away almost every stress and gives you free time!
i saw you reacting on your 2013 and 2014 results that 2014 was different:
"Last year the results were much smoother over time - this year the summer brought some long thirst time to be interrupted suddenly by a sharp gain."
Yes it was, but to use some of the many rules from FT71:
"one of the most important rules about the results is the : Irregularity!"
Mokum
The following user says Thank You to mokum for this post:
Free time?
Thanks for the questions @mokum, @CPRICE76 and @pvlee.
Some more details behind my trading:
1) My trading preparation
Starting the week I am already checking bigger events, holidays, fixed announcements on the precedent
weekend. This helps me to get the bigger picture. On the given trading day I check the range of the past
day and I watch the development on the first 30 minutes after opening. According the rules I fix the entry
time, the direction of the trade, the stop and a second order for the exit time. That's it.
After that I do not really follow what happens.
2) My trading station / place
I don't have one
My work is on a very mobile MacBook Air - I can start at any place - and have no need for quick internet,
many screens or virtual servers - sorry @sam028.
The trading time on a trading day is very short - the journaling takes even more time - LOL.
Weighing all this I say it is very optimized after Pareto: doesn't make your nerves glowing and no need for
a long time sitting (@matevisky) nor being glued to blue screens in a dark room.
3) What am I trading else?
Easy answer: Nothing else!
Looking back to the Dax trades of the last few years journaled here - there is nothing to do more: not getting
involved to learn and "feel" another instrument - or to find a second entry and exit after the first trade.
Just NOTHING else.
4) What am I doing in the free time?
For example holidays (but very few). As you can read in point 2) above I can trade from anywhere.
So I was last October 2 weeks in Mauritius and traded from there at the sea - nobody in the thread remarked any difference.
Then I am single parent of four kids - three of them still living at home. That takes quite a part of the other work during the day.
Then I am going after my hobby "wine" - for which I put quite some work into for organizing 6 wine expositions
in our country per year. These expositions are mostly on a ship of a beautiful lake in different parts of
Switzerland.
Only doing stuff I like and that makes some sense for the quality every day. Especially in my age
Hope this helps you to see some background.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
The following 16 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Thanks for your reply GFIs1. Your successful method shows that you do not need a screen full of indicators and trade 20 times a day to maximise your edge in trading.
I think a large component of your success is that your winners are left alone to run and on fast moving days that can really boost the equity curve.
Good luck next week.
The following user says Thank You to pvlee for this post:
DarkPool - you give me some exotic input - thinking of the cruel stops most traders normally put to "protect" from
larger loss(es).
Just a vicious thought here for EVERY trader using regular stops:
1) forget to put a stop in (or really 3 times more far away than first previewed - more like a desaster stop)
2) Put a TAKE PROFIT opposite to what you would have taken as stop right the same distance of original stop!
3) Watch...
I am sure you can make much MORE profit with this method than running on what you think the market goes
and protect the trade with wrong (too narrow) stops.
Might give an interesting thread with quite some input.
GFIs1
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In the daily Ichimoku price could not pass the upper resistance.
Instead the movement in the past two weeks were sideways - just before
the cloud. ChikouSpan is at this resistance too but at the previous cloud.
To make it short:
- Price can not go higher at this special point.
- This week will be red..
- Next price goal on the down side 9096
This scenario should happen within 3 days.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Yes - there are moments to put a price target on the table.
Like:
2 times the NORMAL stop distance...
Trying this out today: 2x30 points - would have given 9166.
And where was the turning point?
BIG question..
but exactly there
Once a while this is a good decision - but for letting the runners RUN
that means waiting for the perfect setting.
Huh? perfect setting?
Yes - the one to go down on 9096 soon, mentioned earlier.
Gives much more Ice Cream mmmmhhhh...
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Are you know going to change your method to having a fixed target price or stay with your method at entering/exiting your trades at a set predefined time?? Cheers
The following user says Thank You to CPRICE76 for this post:
I was the whole day out and when back, locked behind my screens "Without!" even time to mail or
answer some posting
I want to thank you for your open answer what helps me a lot to change my future.
Not now and maybe also not in 2015 (private circonstances) but after that!
I heard already about a friend of my friend of in Holland who also does an easy way of trading but he has a real capital
to play with (€1M ) and i don,t. I not even have the 5-25.000 euro,s necessary to trade options.
But there are so many ways to play options with 1000 euro or some thousands more that this is not a bottleneck.
The only difference is that on your way (= the real way!), the profit per contract goes nuts and brings the income you
need to live or bring that extra!
Not important and not the case. I enjoy what i am doing as a real real exciting hobby what costs too much time!
I was astonished to read about your Macbook Air ( my 13 year old son is begging for one, but has an Ipad + mini-ipad
and that is enough in my eyes) and that you are REALLY doing only what you told us you do.
Some hours per day for trading, and the rest for your family life and your Wine-hobby. Wow
What a Story from Switserland
Your vision about short this week is right, but the unlogic way the indices in The States sometimes are dictating
the world of stocks and options is for going crazy and of course that Game of the Big Traders.
But we are on the front door of a couple of nice short days. But when!?
Good Luck with your trades Golden Wine Man
Mokum
The following user says Thank You to mokum for this post:
This one is easy to respond:
I do not have the time to sit in front of the screens...
SO:
my rules made some good points over time and as long as it works - I will be part of the game :-)
In fact there is no need to change a winning horse :-)
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
As long you are WITHIN an instrument - you are not disturbed by others..
like SP shaking the DAX or Japanese/Chinese indices may shake too.
I am only looking on what goes WITHIN the index of choice.
So the play is surely involved by ALL the other indices but it is best to ONLY stay with
the chosen one - that makes it really easy to find a good decision.
It is like playint lotto or poker - the possibilities are TOO BIG to win - so stay with YOUR instrument.
GFIs1
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Today the decision was easy:
Given that I am not at the screen I was looking how steep the down was on and before entry.
Then I saw that the following up was about the same - pulling back to close previous day's
end gap.
So I knew that it could perfectly go down - in ONE leg.
OR: coming back to sit in daily's Kumo (cloud) to wait for a break out up or down.
The price went indeed in daily Kumo and ended there - no break through.
This means: the beforementioned short is not dead.
In order to take a predfined target you do not have to be at your screen- why not just set a limit order then you will take profits once your level is hit/ eg +100 points? etc..?
Col
Profit taking with a limit order is of course not a bad thing.
There are 2 problems to deal with:
1) As you can not see at the very beginning of the day if this will be a trend day or a sideways day the setting
of the limit order (how much points?) is not easy.
2) Given we run a trend day and set 60 points profit taking and instead it could have doubled by the time limit?
So there is no easily calculation for a optimized taking profit. A short view at the profile (VWAP) can be helpful -
setting the take profit at the low volume node.
In fact my exit point by time is a optimum over a longer time - so I do not have any calculation about an eventual
taking profit...
After some basic trading experience to "make it simple" I think to not implement a complicated taking profit rule.
The weekly scenario mentioned before had not started too well.
Price went straight up in the daily Kumo and has broken out above this morning.
Yesterday we had a 179 points rally. And this had not turned yet. Today not much
vola expected - But:
Will be very interesting to see the wednesday trade - hoping for such trend again
and the same on Friday ;D
@GFIs1, how much of your methodology is mechanical vs discretionary? I notice you mention your rules and system a lot,...but I also notice you talk about things which seem very discretionary and not rule based.
Thanks.
Diversification is the only free lunch
The following user says Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
Hi Darkpool
The system is fully mechanical - the stop setting according to situation (normally 30 points, some special at 15 points).
Of course you see many different times on a same weekday. This is caused by the situation given from previous day
moves, from news during the day (end time), by the Ichimoku cloud especially the daily and IB range. Thus the
days can not be traded without taking all these parameters in account. The main thing is to "see" when money is
getting into the market (here the DAX) and when it is going out again. Swimming with the crowd at the right time
seems to bring the points.
Unfortunately there are indeed a lot of boundaries like to find the right direction, the right entry and exit times - so it
is not to program easily. It is not the amount of rules (they have easily space on one page of paper) but the
various rules including all coincidences.
I am looking for the last of the week (friday) as well as the last of month (window dressing) and finally the
triple witch days. All of them have the same principle as a rule. But if friday and end of month for example
are one day after another the rule set needs to prioritize...
Hope this helps to see parts of the background.
No discretionary trades - all of them are semi-automated - means decision in the morning before 9:30.
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
entry @ 9445
exit @ 9475 SL
result minus 30 points: oops what bulls are strong right now!
GFIs1
Looks like 9470 is some resistance. Could mean that price is coming down today - to take some gains
in the stocks. And from lower level to boost again.
PS: looking back - it was good to have a stop loss today! The up movements are not stopped yet.
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I can see that around the daily Ichimoku cloud the results are very poor.
Looking back into the past will maybe give some optimizing hints
Could be to omit some trades before and after the cloud.
Needs some time to check that and integrate if necessary.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
This is the silence before the Storm. Do you have analysis around FOMC meetings, how your result looks like? Maybe it is worth to check... These days could create funny waves, because of the rumors, as I see... So maybe this is not about your chart reading capability, more over the news which are coming.
Just guessing ofc. Never checked the DAX at all to give you better hint...
As the cloud had been passed without any problem - things (short) have changed fundamentally.
After that upmove some consolidation could take place - still above the cloud.
That bottom to reach is @ 9123.
From form of the cloud this could been hit by next wednesday.
From there the next upmoves are very probable and the scenario mentioned earlier no
longer valid.
Time will tell if there is a year end rallye - if so: on sandy ground.
But we will make the most out of it.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Due to a rally during a day with no company news but a rose glass put
on the noses of the folks by Mario Draghi and despite all the recent
bad news of recession signs rising we had 229 points in the Dax.
No trade on Monday.
Have a nice weekend
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Had you made any analysis on trailing? I mean I have statistic for YM. If it is trending hard never had a 50tick or more pullback. So if feel it is trend just move it to 200 tick and close the pc. Maybe it is worth to try to analyze your biggest winner to find the trailing number and set it up to protect chop. I know this is not related for today just asking
Thanks for the thoughts!
All the trades taken here are predefined before taken - and have a stop to protect if direction was false.
As it was today...
If a trade is in the right direction and the exit is far away - then no trailing is necessary.
The exit points are the most high profitable moments to get out of a trade and to take the best moment of
higher gain.
Back to stops: Betting on the good outcome has different facettes. It may give a good result.
If not - the stop is there.
In my perception - a trailing stop is great as long you are online to see the movement of your instrument.
Here in the semi automated situation a fixed stop is more evident - I take them as well as the gains without emotions.
GFIs1
..but today moving with the crowd meant being long, staying long and resting long!
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I do know how you are doing it and how you are trading. My question was only about did you do any analysis to trail. Once again. Just for an example sake:
I have an excel sheet. And I have an analysis for YM if it is moving big (+200tick) than there is no bigger pullback than 50tick. Also I do what picture I should looking for to see this. It is only 3% of the time happening on the YM. Thus I know, if I see a tasty picture, I simply just put away the profit target, and let the price work. If it is fail, most probably fail because it was not a +200tick move. If it is working out, most probablly the trailing wont stop me out.
I am just asking, not pushing anything. I do know that the real issue around these days was not this, it was about the timing with the entry. The market was dilydonging before it has been started to move...
Thanks Maté
About the trailing stop:
I have no statistics made about them in the Dax. Might be helpful before using though.
About shaky weeks - I checked back:
My signals were not very good working when price is around or in Kumo (middle of a leg).
So entry points were more often stopped out as you remarked.
I checked my weekly results this year and have seen that after a good up in the balance some negative weeks
came in. These were normally max. 3 weeks in a row. One in spring was 4 weeks. Thanks the optimized stop loss
setting I had not more drawdown and the gaining curve looks stable.
What I have implemented since start is a NO trade when previous day has a range of more than 150 points. With
this a normal entry time is not to find. That rule helped me the most to not make more red days.
I played around with larger stops (one can read in the first third of this thread). But the results were not better.
Conclusion: My trading style is slow. The stop loss setting is good and optimized. Some shaky markets are not harming
despite some running into stops in a row. As I do not have a price target but a time exit I let the trade run and omit
at the same time strong shakes when US markets are open and news are foreseen.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Your input is most welcome.
I started this journey on futures.io (formerly BMT) with this thread - with a very restraint combination of rules - the most important is
to get out within the day and not having a trade over night or weekend (Lower margins and more contracts possible).
In a second attempt I started to journal here in an other thread which is about longer timeframes.
The main thread is here
As my BigMove Swing Trade Approach on the Dax had been replaced starting January 2013 -
two new threads are established now. The reason is that movements on the DAX are very
different to movements in the ES. So are …
and the new thread in that last post...
I stopped journaling there in April 2014. I might continue this one again...
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I do understand and feel you. Horst for example taking swing trades, or trend trades only if the picture is perfect. Really perfect. He is not hunting all the moves, all the scenarios, only if everything is fit. Same like you. You have very strick rules, what to do and how to do it, and when to do it. So I do understand it It is more like fishing at the right time, than to fishing all the time
follow your plan!!!!!!
I had 7 entries today, no losers, 2500 euro gain. And how did I do? Two entries and scaredy 4 points gain total. Himmeldonnerwetter!
Trade to live. Not live to trade.
The following user says Thank You to xelaar for this post:
.. Friday - the last of the month
and Friday - the BLACK** one in USA (Discount selling day after Thanksgiving).
There are for sure some bulls pushing like hell
Tomorrow nothing special expected: no volume and no volatility in the DAX.
GFIs1
**they call it Black Friday because the retailers had with this special day with high selling
the First (sic!) black numbers of the year.
Think about: If we traders would have first gains in the year after ELEVEN months of trading - LOL
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
and what if we ask our broker to get a 20% rebate on the futures tomorrow for Black Friday?
Then a extra bullish move will be guaranteed - as well as new ATH
GFIs1
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Congratulations with your first Swiss Copa Davis GFI
It was a special one because it completes the big list of honors of tennis from Federer.
A real dream came true from "Der Kaiser in Tennis"
What a sportsman. I lived/worked 26 year in Spain and because of that fan from FC Barcelona, Fernando Alonso and Nadal.
But me and Nadal agree that there is only one King of Tennis and that,s Roger.
He was and still is the most elegant tennis player ever given on earth.
The way he came back after the loss against Montfils is unique.
The same can be said of his come back on the ATP with 33 years.
I can feel the proud of you and whole Switserland and after so many successful years a deserved feeling.
I walked around with this in my mind already a week so i am a bit late. Sorry
Mokum
The following user says Thank You to mokum for this post:
Thanks @mokum
Great that you follow from Thailand this normally exclusive European Tennis Cup.
You are right - Switzerland had the very rare constellation to bring 2 topten players
into the finals - that helped enormously for this winning streak.
The French in the final had all signs for them: first they could choose the (sand) place
which the Swiss do not really like and second they had the final in their own country.
As for my village guy Roger - he is sure the King of Tennis and as it looks now he will
not quit soon. But in fact for the Daviscup it was Stan Wawrinka who pushed for the Cup.
GFIs1 who is looking forward to the next great GrandSlams
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today (Monday) price was caught in a narrow range - no real trend to see.
10K out of discussion during the day. Volumes in the 30min up and down
from 2,5K to over 10K.
As the morning bullish move did not see any continuation I am aware of
a special high probable scenario:
MOVES on Tuesday and Thursday (ECB day).
Could mean tomorrow bullish - and a reversal on Thursday.
With this view a Wednesday and Friday trade will not move really either.
Like today.
I will follow tomorrow's move.
GFIs1
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Quick outlook (the above trade is still running):
1) 10K hit
2) ATH (10050) not reached and lower volumes now
3) quick down under 10K
4) no news
5) looks like a day Hi/Lo bigger than 150 points
So next level to reach today: 9890 ---> best point to take profit
With this we will have no trade tomorrow but on Thursday
GFIs1
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Will happen - because today the price range was not above limit.
So tomorrow again a short foreseen. Looking at gap, intial range (IB) and
then the volume of course.
If everything is fine - the trade will start.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
It will...
Wednesday under these circumstances are normally short.
We had no extended down. There is the cloud @ 9900 (hourly).
If diving in we could see some more points down.
So just let wednesday start and watching IB.
Then it will be interesting if Thursday gives another bigger move.
Good trades
GFIs1
edit: expecting close of FDAX tonight @ 9906 area or opening tomorrow
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
It depends on the first 30 minutes on IB (cash hours):
price being within TODAY's range:
red means short 09:30 to 15:30
and green means short 10:30 to 14:30
BUT ATTENTION
There are other rules that can be higher rated - and will jump in
**Only considering IB first 30 minutes.. but in context
GFIs1
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Today a Dax trade will be taken.
Outlook: Not much upmove expected. Tomorrow ECB decision 13:45 so traders might
be sitting a bit on hands.
On the lower part the 9900 should be taken out before new ATH's are seen.
Today no big news.
US and Asia had not shown much volatilty.
GFIs1
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My trades on Wednesdays are mostly short.
As trading normally Monday, Wednesday and Friday - these are the days getting
the most points.
My statistics over 3 years now show that on Wednesdays I collected 40% of the total points.
The wednesday rules are good and stable. Second best is Friday and then Monday.
Some few trades on both other days are not of importance.
So think of the Wednesday short: Don't swim against the stream!
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today's trade was nothing to take...
Tomorrow on ECB announcement a trade will be taken:
From 09:30 to 13:00 which is out of eventually shaking ECB on 13:45.
This might be the last trade of the week then.
GFIs1
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Now:
Draghi made it! It was shakin'!
New High @ 10107 pushed in seconds by some big players
to fall down like a stone ;D
Was best to not have the fingers burned.
No trade tomorrow: actual day range over 226 points already (14:57h)
GFIs1
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Draghi was the market shaker.
To see a daily range in ONE 30 minute bar is very rare.
In that chart we see the 236,5 point bar of the Dax future while the speech:
For sure a part of accounts will have been hurt or erased.
GFIs1
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ECB day moved the Dax future within a range of 271 points.
Consecutive days will not follow normal behaviour of
market participants concerning time and volume
seen in calmer days.
This might be the moment to prove if market seeks
with bullish moves new ATH's or to correct price on
much lower levels.
GFIs1
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Some outlook with the bigger picture:
Ichimoku daily chart (underlying chart courtesy of boersen-knowhow.de, red comments
GFIs1) shows a highly probable scenario for the next two months:
1) Price and new ATH of yesterday is far above levels traded earlier this year
2) a down correction is indicated to a level of 9512 area
3) The support of the cloud is quickly shrinking now - meaning a coming weaker phase
4) The 9500 support is the last high starting november (red circle) as well as the 200 SMA
There are more indications to read out of that chart.
A second correction might follow this first one a bit later - or heading again to new ATHs.
Depends a lot of the money printing around the world..
GFIs1
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What is behind the 150 point range rule?
Markets tend stay on certain price levels (POC in the volume profile for the interested).
Such day ranges for the Dax normally are within 150 points.
If this range is higher that means price is testing other levels. Be it new ATH or going
down to previous trade levels. After such moves the price might find a good "center" or is
attracted to get back to the previous level traded.
My trading plan is made for moments when markets are in synch. Means buyers and
sellers accept a certain price to be seen as a fair price. A break out of the 150 day range
makes the following day not tradable after the rules for synched markets. If the daily range
in Hi/Lo makes more than 250 points then 2 consecutive days are not tradable.
Better to sit on hands and let the shaked markets get back to normal...
GFIs1
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I am only considering US holidays that influence the Dax - especially the volumes.
Other closed exchanges don't have the same effect.
But for german & european holidays I am carefully looking on which weekday this happens.
As for holiday on thursday and making a prolonged weekend - this slows down volume on
friday drastically. For such days a check on Initial Balance (IB) is important.
GFIs1
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Now on its way from 100xx down to 9512 half of it is already made.
Actual price right now 9790 - after two red days.
Looks not bad to see that this described above scenario works.
GFIs1
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Price ended on its low on Friday @ 9549 (future). Looks like the above chart is not wrong
about the strong and quick correction. ONLY: in reality it was quicker than previewed.
Outlook:
Next week triple witch on Friday. And holiday weeks start right after...
On Monday the landing on 9512 expected. Though no trade here because of the extended Hi/Lo
in price range. Drop was 225 points during cash hours.
Weekly support (cloud) is shrinking. A walk through the cloud is highly possible from January.
Cloud bottom then 9000. From there for some weeks later a support at 8500 could be reached.
Just a thought about the next price movements short and medium term.
GFIs1
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My system in this thread excludes a trade in volatile moments (+150 points Hi/Lo on previous day).
So we see some wonderful points fading without participating...
Dull moments!
For this I was using the time to find some patterns that are working even in these windy fields.
My extension to this journal can be found in a new thread.
I even present the really easy rules for your own purpose:
Discussions in Ichimoku circles are about the theme if the down correction in the Dax has
finished now with this counter-move of today.
From my point of view there is NO such sign!
There was a slight problem in lagging Chikou Span. This is no longer the case and for the
actual price the cloud is so thin that it is of no support.
If price is coming down to cloud or crossing - then the next few weeks some more correction
(8500 area) is most probable.
It is well known that especially during holidays with low volume price movements to certain
areas are drawn like magnetic.
With all the popping up problems around the world a year end rally is no longer impossible.
More a coming down to more historic accepted levels.
GFIs1
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