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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal


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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #1501 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax long 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 10014
exit @ 9984
result SL - 30 points 5 minutes before previewed closing of the trade

GFIs1

looks like trading around 10000 is dangerous

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 FKtrader 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax long 9:30 to 14:00

entry @ 10014
exit @ 9984
result SL - 30 points 5 minutes before previewed closing of the trade

GFIs1

looks like trading around 10000 is dangerous

Hi GFTs1,

First ,thanks for your very nice and very transparent journal.
Second,from your 2.5years trading this system,do you find time based exits are more rewarding than the classic ones (S/R levels,SUPPLY/DEMAND...)?
Do you trade other instrument using this system or only DAX?
Regards

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  #1503 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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sorry for posting this late but we had nothing to do anyway ;D

No trade as Tuesday had 176 points range

GFI1s

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  #1504 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 12:00

entry @ 9766
exit @ 9681
result 85 points

IB ok - price in daily Kumo (means erratic moves possible)

GFIs1

..be careful with shorts this afternoon

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  #1505 (permalink)
 Evdl 
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Nice one! Went pretty fast down south. Maybe this is the start of a bigger correction.

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  #1506 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The german says: "Auch ein blindes Huhn findet manchmal ein Korn..."

In fact - the movement of price was on Tuesday this week.
Wednesday was out of rules...
So Thursday is responsible to repeat Tuesday's move and direction.

Stay at the sidelines... price is in daily Kumo.
Bigger players may shake the markets.

GFIs1

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  #1507 (permalink)
 stef 
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YES ! nice trade !

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  #1508 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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adamribica View Post
Hi GFTs1,

First ,thanks for your very nice and very transparent journal.
Second,from your 2.5years trading this system,do you find time based exits are more rewarding than the classic ones (S/R levels,SUPPLY/DEMAND...)?
Do you trade other instrument using this system or only DAX?
Regards


Hi @adamribica
My time based entry/exits are fix.
That means either it hits SL or it is within SL or gives some positive results.
I do not watch the development of the trade as I waste no time for it.
Giving some levels to "cash in" are not my method here.

Of course one can do the analytics - but to program the exit time produces
some problems more.

To answer your last question:
Every future has its own movements - with highs and lows after Initial Balance (IB).
This very unique pattern does not allow to shift the rules to other instruments.
If you are still interested - just watch the patterns of another instrument -
combined WITH IB and WEEKDAY - I am sure that one can find valuable patterns in every market.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1509 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Price still in daily Kumo.
Now the Down level before a rebound sits at 9606.
From there up range to 9712 / 9750.
Then a next downmove to kill 9600 and see lower levels again is possible.
For the not so risky traders - stay away until 9600 level has been passed.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1510 (permalink)
 FKtrader 
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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @adamribica
My time based entry/exits are fix.
That means either it hits SL or it is within SL or gives some positive results.
I do not watch the development of the trade as I waste no time for it.
Giving some levels to "cash in" are not my method here.

Of course one can do the analytics - but to program the exit time produces
some problems more.

To answer your last question:
Every future has its own movements - with highs and lows after Initial Balance (IB).
This very unique pattern does not allow to shift the rules to other instruments.
If you are still interested - just watch the patterns of another instrument -
combined WITH IB and WEEKDAY - I am sure that one can find valuable patterns in every market.

Good trades
GFIs1

Thanks for the reply.
the first day of holiday,nice outside enjoying the sun and the 24 C warm water
U are one of the very few people which i believe are real trader here in futures.io (formerly BMT).
I am glad i found this tradekeep the good work.
Regards

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  #1511 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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No trade today. Yesterday the range was 184 points.
Could consolidate on this evel today a bit.
No strong moves expected though.

GFIs1

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  #1512 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades

one negative (SL) -30 points
one positive +85 points
weekly result +55 points

points since week 2: +590

GFIs1

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  #1513 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 12:30

entry @ 9718
exit @ 9748
result minus 30 (was even too late to set a tight stop)

thin signal - tight stop

GFIs1

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  #1514 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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After a shaky Monday with nearly no volume and a well volumed Tuesday
with a little down my expectations for Wednesday:
1) Sharp downmove possible
2) good to very good volume (maybe the last before summer holidays)
3) 9600 might be let alone ;-)
4) price might drop quite a lot if above scenario is seen... (9350 to 8600 in extremis)
5) from that point the markets will have little volume and will no longer be tradable until mid August

Only some thoughts - no recommendations

GFIs1

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  #1515 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Only concentrating on volumes per hour of >15k contracts of the Dax future:

last positive peak was on July 3rd (15:00 to 16:00)
all consecutive - and there were several > 15k were drops!
Today we had from 16:00 to 17:00 a drop with a
volume >15k which can show some change of mind (cashing in).
So we are well positioned for the Wednesday trade:
short of course - depends on time intraday.
We will see details tomorrow.

GFIs1

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  #1516 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The above posts say the 9600 is a crucial zone.
That can be seen of the Ichimoku cloud (daily price) at 9608.
If this line is broken some FIRST downmove to 9350 will be obvious.
A second drop to 8650 can happen - of course a reversal near 9600
should be made first.
In the low volume weeks coming - such price dictate may happen
and one should not be to risky to stay in a trade (or trades).
My goal is to skip the last July weeks and the first August weeks
as they normally tend to be flaky for the system.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1517 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9819
exit @ 9849 (SL)
result -30 points

IB >5k
Bottom of Ichimoku cloud is horizontal (daily) from today
means attracting price..
Price might go up in the next hour to 9788 area..

GFIs1

quite a heavy push for Wednesday - looking at the volume
Price still in Kumo - so erratic moves are normal there

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  #1518 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had only two trades:

both negative with 30 points SL each
weekly result -60 points
Points since week 2: 530

Due to a technical problem there was no Friday trade. The theoretical result
would make it look not better (plus 3 points)

Price is still in daily Kumo - so some more strange moves are highly possible.

Last year results of the past 6 weeks were much better

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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  #1519 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 11:00

entry @ 9655
exit @ 9645
result 10 points

IB vol ok

GFIs1

left some points on the table
system indication was 30 min too late
a further rush down is highly possible - but timing is not easy to predict

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  #1520 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 12:00

entry @ 9790
exit @ 9788
result +2 points WHAT a lame DUCK...

IB good
SL tight

GFIs1

Price still in daily Kumo - cloud on bottom horizontal - Price came back to TenkanSen which sits at 9769

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  #1521 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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After an interesting start today (Wednesday) the volume continued quite low...
This is a normal summer sign. Some good numbers first from companie's 2nd quarter
pushed up a bit.

Now attention on Friday: IFO numbers 10:00 to watch

Will decide on Friday when to take the trade.

GFIs1

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  #1522 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 16:00

entry @ 9787
exit @ 9737
result 50 points

IB vol ok
SL tight

GFI1s

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 Market Sniper 88 
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax depending on IFO 10:30 to 16:00

entry @
exit @
result

IB vol ok

GFI1s

Hi

Is it normal for the DAX to stay this quiet after the IFO report? I thought it would be flying one way or the other - more likely to the down side as figures were poor?

I am missing something?

Regards

MS

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  #1524 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Market Sniper 88 View Post
Hi

Is it normal for the DAX to stay this quiet after the IFO report? I thought it would be flying one way or the other - more likely to the down side as figures were poor?

I am missing something?

Regards

MS

IFO number is important - especially now having three negative numbers in a row.
Market is juggling around 9800 in the Dax and it looks as the down move is not yet accepted.
One can see that the volume in this 30 minutes after IFO numbers is really low (4262 contracts).
I think the price will erode a bit today...

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1525 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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If the down leg continues from this sticky 9800 level we should look at some numbers:

9696 next - not very important
9600 important - bottom of cloud
9350 important - support level

GFIs1

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  #1526 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 trades

all positive (+10, +2, +50 points)
weekly result + 62 points
Points since week 2: same level as week 25 = 592

GFIs1

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  #1527 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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left some important points on the table..

100 more points were to see from 16:30 to 17:30h (ONE hour)

but to be frank - I never traded a system trade to the last minute..

A great weekend
GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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GFIs1 View Post
A great weekend
GFIs1

You too, still flying the Dax flag well.

Travel Well
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  #1529 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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ratfink View Post
You too, still flying the Dax flag well.

Thanks rat for the flowers - appreciate them :-)

To be driven now to say 9350 should be seen VERY soon.

but:

THE MARKET will be here for YOU even in september - don't worry

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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will be skipped:
Intraday range from Friday was 176 points - exceeding the
"normality" according to my rules...
Depending on what will be on Monday a Tuesday trade might
take place.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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now is out of the daily Kumo - south.
So 9350 could make a new turning point to come back to 9600 - resistance by then.
From there some lower levels might be seen.

At least the uncertainty within Kumo is now the past.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1532 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 13:30

entry @ 9601
exit @ 9616 (SL)
result -15 points

IB vol ok

GFIs1

looking forward for a short tomorrow

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  #1533 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9645
exit @ 9660 (SL)
result -15 points

IB vol ok

GFIs1

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  #1534 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Swiss National Day - no trade foreseen - office closed

GFIs1

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  #1535 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades

Both negative with SL each of -15 points
Weekly result -30 points
Points since week 2: 562

GFIs1

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  #1536 (permalink)
CPRICE76
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GFIs1 View Post
This week had 2 trades

Both negative with SL each of -15 points
Weekly result -30 points
Points since week 2: 562

GFIs1

You know for next year not to bother trading May, June or July- as there have been no profits made in those 3 months?

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  #1537 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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CPRICE76 View Post
You know for next year not to bother trading May, June or July- as there have been no profits made in those 3 months?

The idea is brillant - but the market is not repeating always at the same time.
My view is on the volume on the initial balance. There are times where the
limit is not not reached and no trades are being taken (summer especially).
We could see much more volume this year in the last two months than the
year before. This is a result of the many wars around the world right now.
But making a rule for summer time is a bit risky.
Telling here in the thread that as long price is in daily kumo means staying
at the sidelines if one is a bit risk averse.
Looking at the results described here over the last 2,5 years we are still on
track.

GFIs1

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  #1538 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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..the long awaited downmove happened - OUT of the cloud south - means 200 points
south of the bottom of the cloud in the daily chart (@9600).
Of course this is a missed opportunity - but I am never looking back ;D
No trade tomorrow anyway - as the range passed my 150 points limit today also!

Now for the next few weeks down to 9350 is obvious before a pullback could occur
to not more than 9612 as mentioned in earlier posts.
All assumptions out of the Ichimoku settings in the daily.

My next trade will be on friday in a week - so keep on trying.
Have a great week and come back!
GFIs1

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redgreen
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yeah what a pity. i was joking around with some points this morning. and i was afraid to loose them again. so i closed the trade. ok - 50 points are ok.

anyway. thanks gfi and have a good week

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  #1540 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hi @redgreen

Congrats for 50 points today!!
I did nothing - so nothing lost :-)
But in fact it was the last day of the month and some movement
at this level was indeed obvious.
Next week will give some down again - for tomorrow I would not
recommend to trade.

Have a great Swiss National Day tomorrow!
And a happy long weekend

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
Thanks rat for the flowers - appreciate them :-)

To be driven now to say 9350 should be seen VERY soon.

...
GFIs1

Price dropping quite fast.
In another post I said with Ichimoku hints that 8650 is the next bigger support.

For a the summer months with normally low volume we can see big volume and
quite some volatility.

GFIs1

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redgreen
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so that was a real pain in the ass yesterday. never expected such a dip. I even made minus 10 points... no comment on that... I hope at least someone in here got the jackpot....
have a nice weekend.

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  #1543 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
The above posts say the 9600 is a crucial zone.
That can be seen of the Ichimoku cloud (daily price) at 9608.
If this line is broken some FIRST downmove to 9350 will be obvious.
A second drop to 8650 can happen - of course a reversal near 9600
should be made first.

GFIs1

Now as volume came in plus some interesting INline moves down
we kill in no time so many points that were made up in many months.

In the quote above I saw 8650 "CAN HAPPEN" which is now changed
to "WILL HAPPEN". Maybe not in one direct leg but really soon.
With this the overpriced market in the Dax will have the correction
needed before it can go up to higher levels - but then hopefully
on a better and solid base.

GFIs1

PS: admitting that the system in this thread does not follow these
honey pots - as most of the intraday ranges exceed the system's
rules within sharp moves with high volume.
Here the manual trader with nerves of steel could jump in to get to the jackpot!

As always: Market will be there tomorrow

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 GFIs1 
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Attention today - ECB day on the 1st of the month.
Announcements at 13:45 und 14:30h might shake the markets.

Next GFIs1 trade tomorrow Friday.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 8949
exit @ 8979 (SL)
result -30 points

IB volume good

GFIs1

the gap to yesterday could not be closed
selling volume high in this first hour

up to now gap not closed to yesterday (missing 2 points)

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 1 trade

negative -30 points stop loss
weekly result -30 points
Points since week 2: 532

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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..does not happen as Friday's range exceeded limit.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9157
exit @
result

IB vol ok

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9258
exit @ 9273 (SL)
result -15 points

IB Vol low
SL tight

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had two trades

both negative with -15 points (SL)
weekly result -30 points
Points since week 2: 502

Still choppy market - some caution still needed.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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...move down from 16:40 with very high volume (news? and if - which?)

258 points hi/lo
daily volume first very low and then back to normal in the last 40 minutes?
something is smelling fishy ;D

GFIs1 who sees some crazy market

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 uexkuell 
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GFIs1 View Post
...move down from 16:40 with very high volume (news? and if - which?)

please see

Ukraine forces attack and destroy part of armed convoy from Russia - Lysenko @ Forex Factory

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  #1553 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Thanks!
But I have some controversial points:
1) the EUR/UAH (Grivna in Ukraine) has not made the same move after these news (see pic)



2) despite the news that armed russian forces crossed the ukrainian border last night - the Dax went up in the morning
3) the Dax volume was on low flame the whole day and suddenly a big spike had been seen

Believe me I am watching that special situation around the Donbass very carefully since a long time. Coming back
from Ukraine some days ago I know about the tensions there very well.

Just to round it up - the Dax falling has not ended here. Some quite lower prices might be seen before this month
ends - seen also from the bigger picture - which I can not describe here only in some short words.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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It is nearly off topic here:
The price of the UAH/EUR conversion was 2 years back under 10 Ukrainian Grivnas.
Some spikes up from march this year until august the price spiked to over 18 Grivnas.
Just to think about a very big country which was suddenly in the view of NATO, EU, Russia
and USA. Today the 'same' economy has no more power to attract investors or to simply
fight at the never ending long borders.

To come back to the DAX: all the german big companies that are selling goods eg. to Russia
are seeing some clouds for the very next future for their sales. And maybe even more are facing those
sanctions and fear to keep the own investments in foreign countries.

SO: the Dax can simply not hold these levels under those circumstances.

GFIs1

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robybarletta
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Hi GfIs1 and other members

Have been reading some of the pages on this blog and interested in following your calls...

Couple of questions if i may...

have tried to find you on twitter using @GFIs1 but the latest post is in 2013? have u changed your twitter name or am i doing something wrong on my side possibly...

have you posted your individual twitter trades on this forum so that i can have a look at your biggest drawdown?

hope this is the place to ask these questions, was tempted to ask in PM but followed mikes suggestion that it may benefit others to..

many thanks

roby

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 GFIs1 
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Hi @robybarletta

Thanks for joining.
Twitter: I was abandoning my live calls on Twitter in 2013. Reasons were - too many questions during trading.
And the form to send answers in this limited way did not match my needs.
As everything can be read here on futures.io (formerly BMT) it was no need to be on two rails.

Journal: You can read the yearly results with extra charts in this thread around end of year. Just go back to
these dates and see the posts.
As all my calls are made before the trade with entry and exit time you need to read that developing post on
every trading day to see how it happened. Looking back to all trades here you only see the "finished" situation.

GFIs1

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  #1557 (permalink)
 Wikmar 
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GFIs1 View Post
Journal: You can read the yearly results with extra charts in this thread around end of year. Just go back to
these dates and see the posts.

GFIs1

As you are conforming a very complete thread, may be using the "Quick Summary" in the first page would give also better presentation.

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 GFIs1 
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No trade today because last Friday trade exceeded rule "range".

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9323
exit @ 9263
result 60 points

IB vol low
some slip down expected today

GFIs1

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Wikmar View Post
As you are conforming a very complete thread, may be using the "Quick Summary" in the first page would give also better presentation.

hi Wikmar, have looked at the quick summary and not sure if you are refereing to the first page in general or the box titled quick summary? sorry but not sure how the quick summary box functions.(cant find edit button on right hand side)

aware there are 3 stoplosses 15,30 and 40...not clear when specific one is used...

thanks

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redgreen
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well done. perfect game today.
I wanted to wait for the 4o'clock sell off... but did not happen today
s/l 9275. therefore left some points in the market.

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 GFIs1 
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redgreen View Post
well done. perfect game today.
I wanted to wait for the 4o'clock sell off... but did not happen today
s/l 9275. therefore left some points in the market.

Thanks! -Well done!!
Looks like the old patterns are back again finally ;-)

Tonight 20:15 FOMC... caution - some shaky market possible

GFIs1

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 Wikmar 
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hi Wikmar, have looked at the quick summary and not sure if you are refereing to the first page in general or the box titled quick summary? sorry but not sure how the quick summary box functions.(cant find edit button on right hand side)

aware there are 3 stoplosses 15,30 and 40...not clear when specific one is used...

thanks

Hi robybarletta, and all.

I am refereing to the box titled quick summary in the first page in general:




Also I'm not sure how it functions because I did not used it yet, but there are many threads with a very useful pointers (links) and summary.

Thanks to you.

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 Big Mike 
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Quick Summary can only be edited by Elite Members to prevent abuse.

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  #1565 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Today the Dax (future) reached a high of 9390.
KijunSen is sitting on 9388 (for the last day - tomorrow it will come down technically).
So the limit for 4th leg in Elliott (second correction before the final down) has reached its high.
Tomorrow:
Some nice downmove is programmed - so keep watching the stuff!
Time 09:30 to.... we will determine it as and how it happens...

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9405
exit @ 9352
result 53 points

attention IB vol low
signal thin
tight stop

GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9405
exit @
result

attention IB vol low
signal thin
tight stop

GFIs1

Very nice Mr G. Have a great weekend.

Travel Well
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 GFIs1 
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ratfink View Post
Very nice Mr G. Have a great weekend.

Same to you - thanks!!

As I can *feel* from your progress - you are on the real upbeat SOUND!!!

Good trades!

GFIs1

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 ratfink 
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Same to you - thanks!!

As I can *feel* from your progress - you are on the real upbeat SOUND!!!

Good trades!

GFIs1

And have two weeks vacation booked at the end of next month's trading, expecting or what.

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 GFIs1 
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ratfink View Post
And have two weeks vacation booked at the end of next month's trading, expecting or what.

oops - holiday and trading
LOL - Happy weeks to you!

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redgreen
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hi GFI nice one again. back to normal as stated :-)
I just removed 13:30 and added s/l 9362


have a great weekend
cheers

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redgreen
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expected some resistance around 9360. but went through it... left some points in the market. took s/l. heading for monday short.

cu then

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 2 trades

both positive (60 + 53 points)
weekly result + 113 points
Points since week 2: 615

Looks like we are back on track!
Have a nice weekend

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 10:30 to 16:00

entry @ 9447
exit @ 9432
result -15 points

Vol low
signal weak - SL tight

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 11:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9581
exit @ 9596 (SL)
result -15 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Looks like yesterday's short hesitation comes today...
With more force than expected.
Of course rumors that Putin's troops entered Ukraine to make way to Crimea
is heating up the markets.
If Dax is falling underneath 9297 today (cash hours): No trade tomorrow

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax LONG 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 9506
exit @ 9476 (SL)
result -30 points

IB vol good

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Friday the last..
this time my rule was not appropriate - unfortunately.
Had to look back 3 years to see only 4 occurences of this rare combination.
Some special view more years back - are homework for that event :-)
Hope to have the good hand to get some rule with positive results!

Have a nice weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This week had 3 negative trades. Fortunately in trading low risk the stops were set narrow.

Negative trades: -15 -15 -30 points
Weekly result - 60 points
Points since week 2: 555

GFIs1

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 Market Sniper 88 
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Hi GFIs1

I'm sure I read on your journal that you do not take trades when US markets are having holidays? Is that correct?

Cheers

MS

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 GFIs1 
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Market Sniper 88 View Post
Hi GFIs1

I'm sure I read on your journal that you do not take trades when US markets are having holidays? Is that correct?

Cheers

MS

Yes - exactly! Due to low volume on such a day the normal pattern is not there. So the rules can not
be applied.

Happy Labor Day
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today no trade: US Labor Day

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax long 09:30 to 14:00

entry @ 9539
exit @ 9539 (SL)
result 0 points

IB vol good

looks like a last boost to 9596 before falling again tomorrow

GFIs1

edit: just back from a meeting: fortunately I moved SL on BE as price was already >30 points above
entry - which is rarely triggered here (and just because of not being around).
The turn on top came earlier than previewed. But this down movement should hold on
for tomorrow - so looking to take some profits then.
Today's high with 9580.5 was not far from above mentioned 9596. The plot is still valid.
Good trades!

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 GFIs1 
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After labor day we have seen some movements in the Dax:
1) up today as foreseen - but not reaching the peak
2) US came in and did not push higher but let prices drop on all fronts
3) Dax (future) closed @ 9503 (17:30) which is lower than 9512 as a very important marker

Looking at tomorrow:
Today the gap had been closed (good!)
Slip down is on its way - price there is already paved from previous days
Price drop under 9366 are in view within tomorrow's trading day.
So tomorrow's normal Wednesday short is highly probable.
A good starting point for tomorrow could be 9484 or 9455

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9532
exit @ 9552 (SL)
result -20 points

IB vol. good

Tomorrow Draghi speech ECB... might shake a bit

GFIs1

edit 10:06 - strange upmove with 14'000 contracts in 6 minutes..
edit 10:56: strong upmove: >29'000 contracts in 30 minutes after news of seize fire for Donbass Ukraine

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 Market Sniper 88 
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Dax short 9:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9532
exit @ 9552 (SL)
result -20 points

IB vol. good

Tomorrow Draghi speech ECB... might shake a bit

GFIs1

edit 10:06 - strange upmove with 14'000 contracts in 6 minutes..

That was a hell of a push higher - the talk of European stimulus seems to have traders excited.

Also noticed talk of Ukraine cease fire.

What ever the reasons, certainly wasn't what i thought was going to happen today!!

Cheers

MS

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itradeit
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The question is, is smart money setting up for a move up to 10.000 or more towards 8500?

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 GFIs1 
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Interestingly ONLY the Dax made that peak this morning.
As of the ECB Draghi speech which I mentioned - I have set SL quite tight - which helped in this case.

BUT: to see that the Ukrainian Griwna (UAH) versus the EUR or CHF has NOT made any move this
looks likely to be a short excursion to the north...

just my 2 cents

GFIs1

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itradeit
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A rather large upthrust maybe in order to short DAX like there's no tomorrow on the way down? The first spike up was high volume but the rest rather low, so maybe it was a markup to fool everyone into that its's heading for 10k now?

If it drops to 9570 or so, then I suspect that's the case.

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 GFIs1 
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itradeit View Post
A rather large upthrust maybe in order to short DAX like there's no tomorrow on the way down? The first spike up was high volume but the rest rather low, so maybe it was a markup to fool everyone into that its's heading for 10k now?

If it drops to 9570 or so, then I suspect that's the case.

10K is not a realistic scenario - looking at the bad numbers around the world, the many military conflicts etc.
Having a look at the Ichimoku daily for the Dax - we see some heavy resistance to the upward.
Can not see this for the next 3 months..

GFIs1 who is now leaning far out of the window

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itradeit
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I'm short since the last 9640 so we'll see where this goes..

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 GFIs1 
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.. to all who could realize some points here.

But being careful (with SL settings) and even staying at the sidelines is
not a bad attitude!
Market will be here tomorrow too.

GFIs1

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itradeit
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That, sir, is my achilles heel.

I find it very hard to ONLY take max 3-5 trades per day. If I did, I'd be really profitable because my SYSTEM has a 60-70% win/loss ratio ... it works... if I work.

It seems a nasty little overconfident dopamine gnome takes over my brain when i make a nice little homerun...

At least I'm hovering around breakeven and not losing anymore! I'm mostly right, have replaced my retail eye with professional eye of the market, but I'm also mostly early...

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itradeit
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Short since 9630, curious if it will close yesterdays gap before the speech...

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 GFIs1 
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itradeit View Post
Short since 9630, curious if it will close yesterdays gap before the speech...

looks not bad..
highly probable - and MORE

Good trades
GFIs1

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itradeit
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Good day today, managed to close out the short just after the order flow ran out, then went long after the first upbump, which was a bit of a mistake really, was going to wait for it to retest the low but my trigger finger slipped.

But I didn't expect the rise to occur so early!

I exited now @9635, I don't think it's going further before the speech, more likely it will find a low and then (hopefully) the real buying rally will begin.

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itradeit
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looks not bad..
highly probable - and MORE

Good trades
GFIs1

It's really on the fence right now where it's going to go... But I don't think they will mess with the rates so short after the previous policy and upping the rates now, it doesn't sound like how the usual suspects behave...

This Hideous Chart Shows Draghi's Deflation Nightmare Is Coming True In Europe - Business Insider

ECB September Meeting Preview - Business Insider

Usually they behave more like a beginner stuck in a bad trade!

And if DAX is about to make a "blowup" on the daily, before going down, this would be a perfect day for such a move and tomorrow and monday going down...

But as usual, we'll see.


EDIT:

Clueless about QE this time... but my bet is on no QE at the moment...

My mind is on how the smart money is going to use this... i think they have more to unload so they need more buyers coming in, so I think a shot for 9700 is not at all unlikely today.

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itradeit
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OK, wow, dangerous territory.

Rule #12 in trading - never act on forum comments!

GFS1, yesterday I was a bit weakhearted and broke my rule of not reading forums when in a position that hasn't taken a direction yet, so I ended up with cancelled my long 30 seconds before the upblast... because I read your post and i lost my mind and didn't stuck with my plan. :-P But I had a nice ride down so that's ok.

EDIT:

Exit @ 9710, have to be in a meeting. - Confidence and account boost day!

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itradeit
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I hope you don't feel I'm crashing your DAX thread here, if so , my apologies, I'm new to this forum. Daytrading gets a bit lonely sometimes LOL!

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 GFIs1 
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itradeit View Post
OK, wow, dangerous territory.

Rule #12 in trading - never act on forum comments!

GFS1, yesterday I was a bit weakhearted and broke my rule of not reading forums when in a position that hasn't taken a direction yet, so I ended up with cancelled my long 30 seconds before the upblast... because I read your post and i lost my mind and didn't stuck with my plan. :-P But I had a nice ride down so that's ok.

EDIT:

Exit @ 9710, have to be in a meeting. - Confidence and account boost day!

..this is a journal - no recommendations here.
Setting tight stops if it goes against the previewed direction is important.
Reading what I have written about ECB days some posts above: shaking out possible!

Now the price went up to the bottom of the cloud in the daily ichimoku. This is the resistance mentioned.
So my thoughts of lower prices comes out of that bigger picture.
We have to see what happens.
Today's range is high - the volume to push the Dax upside was high.

In case of doubt: staying on the sidelines might be best.

GFIs1

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