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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
Started:February 18th, 2012 (07:46 AM) by GFIs1 Views / Replies:263,898 / 2,770
Last Reply:6 Hours Ago (10:03 AM) Attachments:173

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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

Old June 30th, 2014, 08:32 AM   #1491 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
IB was too good

This trade was of course not as previewed. Time of entry and I assume even time of exit
are perfect - but the direction of this trade was wrong.

Have revised the rule for the last of month.

Mea culpa - next time we are ready.

GFIs1

looking forward to Wednesday - the last trade this week.

How can you keep changing the rules? Surely rules are rules otherwise its gambling!

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Old June 30th, 2014, 08:50 AM   #1492 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
IB was too good

This trade was of course not as previewed. Time of entry and I assume even time of exit
are perfect - but the direction of this trade was wrong.

Have revised the rule for the last of month.

Mea culpa - next time we are ready.

GFIs1

looking forward to Wednesday - the last trade this week.


Bonjour !

Une possibilite concernant votre technique :
Est ce qu'il serait avantageux de mettre 2 contrats et de sortir le 1er a 20 ou 30 pts et laisser courir le second jusqu'a l'objectif horaire ?

Bon courage !

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Old June 30th, 2014, 08:57 AM   #1493 (permalink)
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CPRICE76 View Post
How can you keep changing the rules? Surely rules are rules otherwise its gambling!

No worry here: This is about a rule which applies very rarely during the year The Friday/Last per month rule.
If the last happens on Monday there will be no application of the Friday rule. Just that.
As this is very rarely to happen I did not have enough data to check this one out in every aspect - NOW it is FIXED.
This means not changing but modifying the rule to the most probable outcome of a trading situation in time aspects.
Since more than two years I am using the same set of rules. Basically there were only very slight modifications
within this period. One may follow the modifications in the upper posts of this thread.

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; June 30th, 2014 at 09:06 AM.
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Old June 30th, 2014, 09:05 AM   #1494 (permalink)
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stef View Post
Bonjour !

Une possibilite concernant votre technique :
Est ce qu'il serait avantageux de mettre 2 contrats et de sortir le 1er a 20 ou 30 pts et laisser courir le second jusqu'a l'objectif horaire ?

Bon courage !

Hi Stef

Thanks for your proposal. I am here only showing a trade on ONE contract. This is not really followed during
the time the trade is on as the exit time is well known at the start already (semi automated trade).
Of course one could get in or get out with additional contracts - but this would destroy the real final result.

GFIs1

Bonjour stef

Merci bien pour vos idées. En effet ce system veut montrer un seul contrat pour mieux comparer. Comme
le temps de sortier est déjà connu en entrant ce système peut marcher semi-automatique.
On peut bien penser en mettre plusieurs contrats pour entrer avec difference ce temps mais le résultat final
serait plus à suivre.

GFIs1

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Old June 30th, 2014, 09:47 AM   #1495 (permalink)
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Hi / Bonjour

Futures Edge on FIO
Hi GFIs1,

Just recently found your thread via Ratfink's. Your methodology seems interesting although I am not too clear on what all your entry/exit rules are and how they are derived, so please excuse me if I make dumb observations!

I don't trade the DAX, although I followed it for a while some months ago as a friend was trading it then. This morning's trading was not nice from the higher 30-60 min+ TFs and stop placement, as the Pros are obviously intent on testing the market both ways. From a Wyckoff/VSA point of view this was fairly likely to happen based on last Thursday and Friday's price/volume action. I don't want to impose my own charts on your excellent thread - although I did take the liberty and impose a few on Ratfink! :-)

If I may make a humble suggestion. Have you investigated Wyckoff and VSA? If not, I think you might find it beneficial and complimentary to your method without being too disruptive! Knowledge of where price is within the largher Wyckoff scheme is useful for context - think 'Strategic', while the VSA is 'Tactical'. Last Thursday saw a wide-range bar with an increase in volume greater than the prior 14 days, it took out the low prior to the last high thus making an initial lower low (Red Flag! = potential indecision to follow), however it was a CIM (close in middle) bar. This told you that the market was likely to go into a trading range and thus become choppy and test the high and low of Thursday's bar before deciding if it's going to break higher or lower.

Friday was a low volume narrow-range inside bar that closed on its high. This told you that the selling pressure was spent at these levels and that the buying was likely mostly short-covering otherwise Friday's bar would have been much stronger. Friday's bar told you that - like your system? - the iniital bias at least today would be to try and push higher. After an initial test lower that failed to attract selling volume the big boys than sharply marked prices up to take out any weak stops from Thurs/Fri and test for where the sellers would re-enter the market. The high volume on the up bar told you there was a lot of activity and likely not just stops being hit. (remember, the Pros sell on UP bars into strength ie 'sell high' and buy into weakness on DOWN bars ie 'buy low'). having tested and found sellers re-enter around 9890 the market reacted down sharply telling you they were going to rotate price back towards the lows to test for buyers to re-enter. As price is now in a trading range it will become choppy and whipsawed with the only 'safe' entries/exits at the edges of the TR making it hard to place stops.

Basically, what I'm trying to suggest is that with a knowledge of VSA - not as complicated and involved as some would make out, especially on higher TFs - and Wyckoff structure you could make an informed decision on intial directional bias prior to each trade and also where to place stops/Targets. Just a few humble thoughts, but don't wish to 'impose'

Best regards and humbled at your facility with languages - us Brits are RUBBISH in that department (Oh, and Football too!!!)

SS

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Old June 30th, 2014, 11:11 AM   #1496 (permalink)
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SisyphusStone View Post
Hi GFIs1,

..Last Thursday saw a wide-range bar with an increase in volume greater than the prior 14 days, it took out the low prior to the last high thus making an initial lower low (Red Flag! = potential indecision to follow), however it was a CIM (close in middle) bar. This told you that the market was likely to go into a trading range and thus become choppy and test the high and low of Thursday's bar before deciding if it's going to break higher or lower. ..

SS

Hi SisyphusStone

Thank you so much for your input - most appreciated.
This thread is about pattern trading on the Dax - with predefined entries and exits. The goal is to have some
(maybe complicated) rules that allow a semi-automated system push forward into a fully automated one.
All your active market observing is partly integrated in the rule set here but not using your market observings.
Let us take your example cited above: Thursday had a range of 149 points (I think it was mentioned some posts
above). My rule says after a day of 150 point range: NO trade
So we can discuss about the 1 point beneath but the fact was clear: CHOPPY zone
AND more risk...
More examples are at hand but to make it short: the rules are from more than 3 years back and and are discussed
in this thread (and traded) since nearly 2,5 years. The Dax was at 5800 at that time and killed 10000 this month.
But the rules seem to be still valid.
To protect from "silly" losses one could refine some rules. This is not the goal here.
In fact I have learned a lot of following only one instrument to get the feeling of any moves.
Finally after the balance of made points nobody asks which indicator or "system" gained these points.
Still on the testing route but near the optimized final state now.

Good trades
GFIs1

..just for the language point - my mother tongue: Swiss German

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Old June 30th, 2014, 11:33 AM   #1497 (permalink)
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Hi GFIs1,

Thanks for your kind words and only glad that any comment is something better than an irritation! I'm afraid my Swiss-German ability is about comparable to the England football team's ability to score goals.

I will continue to read through your thread to get a better idea of your system. I'm afraid that, while fairly competent mathematically, I am not very computer literate so analysing stats and patterns from the data is beyond me. Wyckoff/VSA where you just have to draw a few lines with a thick crayon Kindergarten-style, is about my limit! Interesting however, that your stats/system also flagged up Thursday for chop to follow the next day. Needless to say, there are many ways to skin the market cat as it were.

Good trading and may your system bring you all the points you desire!

Best

SS

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Old July 2nd, 2014, 04:33 AM   #1498 (permalink)
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Wednesday trade

Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9922
exit @ 9904
result +18 points

IB ok
last trade this week (US 4th July closed)

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; July 2nd, 2014 at 10:31 AM.
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Old July 2nd, 2014, 09:13 AM   #1499 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Points since week 2: 547

Hi GFIs1,

I thought I should make a short post to compliment you. I have always been rather sceptical of black box or automated trading systems, but I have to say, based on your figures to date, you may have developed a 'winner'.

I'll round off for ease, but let's say in 25 weeks the 'system' has made 550 points, that's an average of 22 points per week and at Euro 25 /pt is Euro 550 /wk/contract.
If your max stop is 30 pts or Euro 750 and we say a max risk on any trade is 5% of equity then 20x750 = Euro 15,000.
So on the basis of an account with Euro 15,000 per contract traded and trading say 50 weeks/year then 50 x 550 = Euro 27,500 potentially. This equates to over 80% return on capital per annum, which is excellent - you'd better start your own hedge fund!!

The test period to date has seen the DAX in a large trading range, which are typically harder to trade, but a state in which the markets spend most of their time, so if the system is just as robust in a trending market as well you should be smiling all the way to the bank! :-)

Good work, GFIs1 !

Best
SS

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Old July 7th, 2014, 03:29 AM   #1500 (permalink)
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Week 27 result


This week had 2 trades

One negative -30 points SL
one positive + 18 points
weekly result -12 points

points since week 2: 535

GFIs1

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