As the previous 2 trades landed with false signals in the red / stop we have today a good
situation to take a not so risky trade. This situation is a up-gap after a flag.
The trade: Dax short from 10:00 to 13:30
entry @ 9718
exit @ 9705
result plus 13 (lame duck)
GFIs1
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Good morning rat - thanks for the visit.
Yes - this is my Tuesday and Thursday setup for gaps.
As there are so few gaps right then and my plan was to drop Tuesday and Thursday
under normal conditions I have this still on the table - like today.
Good trades
GFIs1
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Yesterday one big up move (break away gap). The IB volume was near 9K in 30 minutes.
From there nothing more was to see and the volume was very weak during the day.
Today a trade only will being taken when IB volume is good.
Volume > 7,5K - ok
..up again to 9946 / 50
and then back lower within our short (wednesday" circuit).
Thursday low volumes as parts in Germany are closed. (holiday)
Friday might be a runner up.
We are nearing in 2 weeks the triple witch - this means new extremes.
Looking for 10333 to be killed in the very near future.
Good trades
GFIs1
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This week on Thursday an important ECB announcement is due.
So the Dax may not move normally until the results come out.
Today not much movements...
If this is another down day - tomorrow might be a long as a wednesday reversal.
Thursday the push over 10K might happen after the announcement and the regained
stablity. We will see...
Some prudence in this important week is necessary - better to stay at the sidelines
than to lose money.
Good trades
GFIs1
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Getting back at this sideways movement since many days now I want to point out the
main comportement on the Dax here:
We are seeing not much volatility in the last days - BUT
many LONGS are being closed BEFORE reaching 10K.
Look in the chart at the many 30 minutes HIGH volume and NOT much price change.
This means that the important players are getting at the sidelines and let the market
play - without being in the risk.
Such behaviour is looking for lower prices to get those players back in...
So stay alerted - the next few days might for a consolidation.
Tight stop loss if ever or staying at the sidelines are recommended.
(As written before) - just analize the chart...
GFIs1
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Looks like the ECB announcement has brought some bullish movements.
Though the ECB discussion will take place in 45 minutes - the high of this week
was NOT taken out.
Nor the 10K had been killed!
Based on this plus this week's thoughts we can assume that the trend is
down from this point.
Tomorrow the last trade of the week will take place - the next one then
on Tuesday - as Monday is holiday...
GFIs1
edit after ECB details:
Price came up to 10017 and is falling back again underneath 10K.
The daily volume interestingly does not exceed the days before...
So the pricing in was done in the last 3 weeks. Some conso is due
before a further pushing up will take place (maybe from autumn -
just my 2 cents).
entry @ 10023 ***FIRST trade with 5 digit DAX***
exit @ 10029
result minus 6 points
IB volume ok Resistance at 10000
looks like some conso today and tomorrow before pushing up more
GFIs1
today's countertrend trade did not play out as intended - the bulls were -
even with low volume - still stronger..
from here some up today could be highly possible
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The "battle" at 10K is not over yet.
My thoughts are for the next 2 weeks coming:
1) Price is passing 10K several times before getting higher
2) A maximum of 10333 could be reached - mostly before triple witch next week (Friday)
3) From there some lower prices will be seen in the lower volume months of summer
Just my scenario - could be very different though
Good trades
GFIs1
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This question might come up for every reader:
Does this guy trade what he announces?
To answer this question here - this is the thread about ONE DAX trade..
For once in this thread I am showing you this:
My trades are set up to the clock. This means to enter or to exit a trade
EXACTLY to the time wanted (as announced per post BEFORE taking the trade).
This order is always a market order and may have some slip. So are
the final results shown here.
Of course this helps me to let the trade play out without being online and
on screen during this previewed time. Much more relaxing of course.
So my trades may have a negative outcome - which is shown here
as an example for those who are questioning.
In the trade of today you can see the precise order fillings (:00) which are only
to reach if you put the order by time and not by manual clicking - manually you will
in most of the cases never get the order filled to the second...
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Which broker do you use where an order can be placed and exited on a time basis? Is there any manipulation of prices on the brokers part as they can move prices around. I certainly notice that with IG.
This is with Interactive Brokers - the trades are always placed market +/- 1 point slippage.
No trading against the broker (as you may have seen with your's) as the time order is going through
directly.
You may try it out on a sim account to get some experience.
If you read the journal from the beginning you will see many inputs to your question.
This system is determined by the DAY of the week and some "looking back" to the last
trading days - especially volume and cash hours bandwidth.
Then the special essence is given by the Ichimoku cloud - here the one of the daily chart as well
as the 1h chart are important to shift the time for entry and exit.
Stops are set upon the situation - be it near a support / resistance or normal (30 points outside noise
setting). This means here in our DAX future case EUR 750 risk per car.
To make it short: entry and exit TIME is determined BEFORE a trade is started.
GFIs1 - hope this helps
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Doing a backtest of all of the trades that you have placed,it would of been more profitable just to conduct the one trade per week stradegy, that being a short on wednesday at 09.30 CET
A short placed every wednesday at 09.30 CET using a stop of 30 ticks would of produced 765 points this year to date.Exiting at 14.30 CET. ( Excluding todays result ).
Ps have you no considered putting a target price in for your positions as this would further increase the profitability eg say a target of 80 fat ticks.As many times has your position been 60 ticks in profit, but no profit has been taken and your 30 tick stop loss has been hit unfortuntely.
Just a thought to try to make the system more efficient.
Col
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To be clear: it is NOT because of Friday 13th - this could even bring a special deal!
I am only doing a prolonged weekend here
As for this week I am pretty happy with the result - so GFIs1 says: GoForIt!
Next week will be triple witch on Friday and some bold moves are welcomed on Monday and Wednesday.
again: GoForIt
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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hi folks!
seems like the system works :-). I took a "blind" short to common times. short 09:30 but stopped manually around 12:00 with about 30 point. put a tight stop.
thanks GFI and enjoy your trip!
cheers
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As the coming week has triple witch on Friday
there normally are quite some movements
BEFORE that day.
This has to do with companies half year results.
On triple witch no trade - as the pricing in has
already been made in the days before.
hi GFI
what about last tripple weeks? do you have a recap from the last years? was there a general up or down trend?
glad to see you back tomorrow.
cheers
In a triple witch week the volumes are normally high. The forces of the big players are influencing from Monday
to Wednesday and from there the price is mostly "fixed" - and the futures rolled to the new september one.
As the Dax future is ending on friday 13:00 the GFIs1 friday rule could not really work - as the rules say to trade
on friday longer than 13:00.
But anyway the volume on a triple witch day is not so important as the days before.
This is why I do skip trading on this day.
I checked my results in the last 2+ years on this specific day and got the answer: normally a minus result.
GFIs1
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Thanks for asking - the system gives the times for entry and exit: so I can easily put the trades
exactly executing on the desired times plus setting an adequate stop.
Normally I am NOT sitting at the screen which is quite relaxing.
GFIs1
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Yes, sorry I mean do you physically manually place the trades ( ie click your mouse) or do you automate it so your order is executed without you physically doing anything? Tia
I put the orders as market orders at the before specified time.
So the execution is exactly to that programmed time.
See pic in post #1431 to see the execution on both trades exactly to the 30min programmed...
GIFs1
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There is a special time order @CPRICE76 which allows you to define an order with
a time based entry. Sending it to the broker it sits there and is"working". At the
desired execution time it will be fired. Manually you can nearly never fire an order
to the second.
To illustrate this - look at the attached screenshot where the execution time is a
major part of the order: field time in force "Start Time" (Interactive Brokers).
After confirming the order you can shut down your computer as the order is in
the orderbook at the broker.
GFIs1
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Thanks for that yes need to use a trading platform with this facility otherwise need to be by the screen which isn't always possible. Sounds good.
How do you find IB? I completed the application process but read mixed reviews on costs?
cheers
IB is fine - costs are low - choice of products is tremendous.
The opening of an account is a hassle (too many forms) and some
are afraid of the high margins especially with futures.
Those higher margins are ok to prevent traders from gambling.
The platforms are a standalone trading environment (TWS) and
the browser based webtrader. The charting facilities are not
great but complicate.
For the scalpers the booktrader might be an ideal tool though.
If one has to relay on charting with many more than 2 indicators
a chart package is highly recommended.
Fortunately the charts can be linked to IB and trades out of the
charts are accepted for a wide range of charting programs.
GFIs1
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This week we can see some strange patterns in the Dax pricing:
No normal orders and volumes but some bigger players coming in during the last days
before triple witch on friday. They are getting out of their June future positions and
push price in the desired direction.
This morning we could see a special action to push price near the 10K position.
Volume over 12K in the first 30 minutes is an extreme number...
The June contract does still have a lot of volume while the September contract is slowly
getting stronger now. My normal change of contract is normally on Thursday before triple witch.
It does not mean a lot as my wednesday trade with the "old" contract" is the last one
anyway.
So have a look at the chart here to understand the bull/bear actions with higher volume
to bring the price into a certain area of importance before half year numbers:
GFIs1
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looks like the bulls are still here to protect from a drop...
This was the last trade this week and the last June contract.
Next trade on coming Monday!
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Price for triple witch closed over 10K - at 10016. Volatility high and volume very weak for the last day compared to previous days.
Most contracts were rolled over before the last day.
Some important movements on end June and first weeks could bring in
some good volatility and on the traded days good points.
Looking back to last year these weeks were very good: 350+ points in 2 weeks
Horizon here now: price rising up to 10333 and falling back again.
Would be nice to see last years results.
From second week in July the volume might go drastically back which prevents
from entering with the normal rules.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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After the triple witch today the first day of the september contract alone started with
a big down during IB 30 minutes of 120 points.
The interesting moment was 09:15 when some big players dumped within 5 minutes
nearly 8000 contracts which is more in these 5 minutes than during the first 30 minutes
all contracts together.
So we will see for sure some interesting development during the next 2 weeks.
Planning the trade carefully as well as the stops is crucial.
GFIs1
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I saw a GAP around 9965, wents short again 9968 with small stop at 9978. unfortunately, the bastard just ticked a little bit over and stopped me out ....
Ifo numbers showed a confident loss - one more - right now.
This could indicate that the investors in german companies could get
some cold feet. Especially over the summer.
One result could be that 10000 in the Dax is quite a number and the price
might dimple there longer than wanted or expected.
Looking at tomorrow:
A down slip is pretty probable.. could hit 200 points.
End of month means end of half year numbers - so be prepared for
some coaster roller.
GFIs1
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The last week before half year results we see some "big" players shaking the markets (read above posts).
Rules may not give desire result under these circumstances. My bigger view for today was a drop -
which was announced with a gap to yesterday.
This scenario did not happen on time previewed. For these cases my stops are tight.
The weeks with triple witch as well as the last weeks of the quarter normally show more volatility.
Be cautious on these days and eventually stay at the sidelines.
GFIs1
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no comment on today's move!
of course, stopped out with 6 points after 10:30 entry! was about 5min too early with 10 pts SL. and now this ugly downmove... looking for other chances.
have a good day!
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Yesterday some big players made another peak in the volume.
Strong dumping around 16h let the Dax drop... just as said
earlier this week. More than 93000 contracts were seen that day.
The hi/lo reached 149 points - near my stop trading rule
of 150
So tomorrow and Monday it could give more volatilty and
caution is needed when taking a trade.
GFIs1
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Originally SL was 15 points. As an exception I moved it to break even
to not get any minus trade more this week.
Looks like the price is going in the desired region hopefully +/- 40 points until 13:30.
two negative (-30 -15 points)
one neutral (0 point)
weekly result minus 45 points
Points since week 2: 547
Very low volume in the Friday trade after IB
Was clear after the downmove yesterday with 149 points...
Thin signal was indicating too..
Can be still shaky on coming Monday (trade will be 09:30 to 13:30)
LAST DAY of half Year!
Direction will be given 09:30
Conclusion:
Very big indecision - some bigger parties were playing the music this week...
One more week or two ahead - are maybe there to jump in - the rest will be vacation time
with no indication of the (GFIs1) rules as the volume will be too low.
Summer rallye as expected may happen but not really on the main weekdays.
So staying foreseen at the sidelines if volume is low: <5K for IB 30min.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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We have already seen one very quick dump of futures this week -
yesterday we have seen the second one.
Now today the start seemed meaningful - but the rest didn't work.
Here the chart when the big price movements happend (not the same daytime of course):
Expecting not much more cosmetics on Monday though.
GFIs1
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Une possibilite concernant votre technique : Est ce qu'il serait avantageux de mettre 2 contrats et de sortir le 1er a 20 ou 30 pts et laisser courir le second jusqu'a l'objectif horaire ?
No worry here: This is about a rule which applies very rarely during the year The Friday/Last per month rule.
If the last happens on Monday there will be no application of the Friday rule. Just that.
As this is very rarely to happen I did not have enough data to check this one out in every aspect - NOW it is FIXED.
This means not changing but modifying the rule to the most probable outcome of a trading situation in time aspects.
Since more than two years I am using the same set of rules. Basically there were only very slight modifications
within this period. One may follow the modifications in the upper posts of this thread.
GFIs1
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Thanks for your proposal. I am here only showing a trade on ONE contract. This is not really followed during
the time the trade is on as the exit time is well known at the start already (semi automated trade).
Of course one could get in or get out with additional contracts - but this would destroy the real final result.
GFIs1
Bonjour stef
Merci bien pour vos idées. En effet ce system veut montrer un seul contrat pour mieux comparer. Comme
le temps de sortier est déjà connu en entrant ce système peut marcher semi-automatique.
On peut bien penser en mettre plusieurs contrats pour entrer avec difference ce temps mais le résultat final
serait plus à suivre.
Just recently found your thread via Ratfink's. Your methodology seems interesting although I am not too clear on what all your entry/exit rules are and how they are derived, so please excuse me if I make dumb observations!
I don't trade the DAX, although I followed it for a while some months ago as a friend was trading it then. This morning's trading was not nice from the higher 30-60 min+ TFs and stop placement, as the Pros are obviously intent on testing the market both ways. From a Wyckoff/VSA point of view this was fairly likely to happen based on last Thursday and Friday's price/volume action. I don't want to impose my own charts on your excellent thread - although I did take the liberty and impose a few on Ratfink! :-)
If I may make a humble suggestion. Have you investigated Wyckoff and VSA? If not, I think you might find it beneficial and complimentary to your method without being too disruptive! Knowledge of where price is within the largher Wyckoff scheme is useful for context - think 'Strategic', while the VSA is 'Tactical'. Last Thursday saw a wide-range bar with an increase in volume greater than the prior 14 days, it took out the low prior to the last high thus making an initial lower low (Red Flag! = potential indecision to follow), however it was a CIM (close in middle) bar. This told you that the market was likely to go into a trading range and thus become choppy and test the high and low of Thursday's bar before deciding if it's going to break higher or lower.
Friday was a low volume narrow-range inside bar that closed on its high. This told you that the selling pressure was spent at these levels and that the buying was likely mostly short-covering otherwise Friday's bar would have been much stronger. Friday's bar told you that - like your system? - the iniital bias at least today would be to try and push higher. After an initial test lower that failed to attract selling volume the big boys than sharply marked prices up to take out any weak stops from Thurs/Fri and test for where the sellers would re-enter the market. The high volume on the up bar told you there was a lot of activity and likely not just stops being hit. (remember, the Pros sell on UP bars into strength ie 'sell high' and buy into weakness on DOWN bars ie 'buy low'). having tested and found sellers re-enter around 9890 the market reacted down sharply telling you they were going to rotate price back towards the lows to test for buyers to re-enter. As price is now in a trading range it will become choppy and whipsawed with the only 'safe' entries/exits at the edges of the TR making it hard to place stops.
Basically, what I'm trying to suggest is that with a knowledge of VSA - not as complicated and involved as some would make out, especially on higher TFs - and Wyckoff structure you could make an informed decision on intial directional bias prior to each trade and also where to place stops/Targets. Just a few humble thoughts, but don't wish to 'impose'
Best regards and humbled at your facility with languages - us Brits are RUBBISH in that department (Oh, and Football too!!!)
SS
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
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Thank you so much for your input - most appreciated.
This thread is about pattern trading on the Dax - with predefined entries and exits. The goal is to have some
(maybe complicated) rules that allow a semi-automated system push forward into a fully automated one.
All your active market observing is partly integrated in the rule set here but not using your market observings.
Let us take your example cited above: Thursday had a range of 149 points (I think it was mentioned some posts
above). My rule says after a day of 150 point range: NO trade
So we can discuss about the 1 point beneath but the fact was clear: CHOPPY zone
AND more risk...
More examples are at hand but to make it short: the rules are from more than 3 years back and and are discussed
in this thread (and traded) since nearly 2,5 years. The Dax was at 5800 at that time and killed 10000 this month.
But the rules seem to be still valid.
To protect from "silly" losses one could refine some rules. This is not the goal here.
In fact I have learned a lot of following only one instrument to get the feeling of any moves.
Finally after the balance of made points nobody asks which indicator or "system" gained these points.
Still on the testing route but near the optimized final state now.
Good trades
GFIs1
..just for the language point - my mother tongue: Swiss German
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Thanks for your kind words and only glad that any comment is something better than an irritation! I'm afraid my Swiss-German ability is about comparable to the England football team's ability to score goals.
I will continue to read through your thread to get a better idea of your system. I'm afraid that, while fairly competent mathematically, I am not very computer literate so analysing stats and patterns from the data is beyond me. Wyckoff/VSA where you just have to draw a few lines with a thick crayon Kindergarten-style, is about my limit! Interesting however, that your stats/system also flagged up Thursday for chop to follow the next day. Needless to say, there are many ways to skin the market cat as it were.
Good trading and may your system bring you all the points you desire!
Best
SS
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
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I thought I should make a short post to compliment you. I have always been rather sceptical of black box or automated trading systems, but I have to say, based on your figures to date, you may have developed a 'winner'.
I'll round off for ease, but let's say in 25 weeks the 'system' has made 550 points, that's an average of 22 points per week and at Euro 25 /pt is Euro 550 /wk/contract.
If your max stop is 30 pts or Euro 750 and we say a max risk on any trade is 5% of equity then 20x750 = Euro 15,000.
So on the basis of an account with Euro 15,000 per contract traded and trading say 50 weeks/year then 50 x 550 = Euro 27,500 potentially. This equates to over 80% return on capital per annum, which is excellent - you'd better start your own hedge fund!!
The test period to date has seen the DAX in a large trading range, which are typically harder to trade, but a state in which the markets spend most of their time, so if the system is just as robust in a trending market as well you should be smiling all the way to the bank! :-)
Good work, GFIs1 !
Best
SS
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 -1812)
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