Comment:
Last of month and week, US numbers 14:30
Price yesterday tested daily Kumo from top and made a rebound
Kumo 's bottom now horizontal - a first start of window
to slide through down
Today some vola and some bigger moves foreseen
GFIs1
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Comment:
Price again in daily Kumo - second time after february - now
some downmovement underneath Kumo highly probable.
Today started with Gap and high volume.
As price is still in Kumo - some vola and unpredictable moves
may occur.
Only for traders with strong nerves
Updated:
PLEASE consider before posting:
The normal SL settings were not in place (read above comment)
Left some points on the table which does not matter here.
The overall trend is short - but that might take some more
time to see the "breaktrough" foreseen.
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Monday had a range of 192 points during cash hours.
Today we have seen 53 points up to now.
This means that trading today will be in a narrow range
and will only make some moves around 9450 - without
any direction.
So the main rule of not trading after a day with range
above 150 points makes totally sense.
So relax and wait for tomorrow.
Well said. This week is really for traders with strong nerves - as stated earlier. The Monday slump
and yesterday's rebound has put price again lower and in sync again.
My proposal would not have been traded today when only ONE day before was >150 points.
I hope the trade will turn out positive.
GFIs1
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I am looking back to the scenario post 1'081 from December 14th last year:
What do we see? The price went a bit higher than foreseen and is now diving as foreseen (a bit later than
expected). Now I am pretty sure that the levels mentioned in that post will be seen and even lower levels
are highly probable.
The next few weeks will be in the hands of the bears!
GFIs1
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The long awaited slip underneath 9000 happened yesterday after cash closing.
Daily range was 236 points and does not allow a system trade today.
But in all the trend will be followed short and this direction could bring a lot of points.
Here is why:
1) Krim conflict and poll in this weekend brings a lot of uncertainty
2) Triple witch Friday next week - gives some more vola than normal
So head for the gains!
GFIS1
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A good example of "some" pushing prices we have seen today in the Dax:
From 12:30 to 13:00 within 30 minutes price went up 156 points and volume reached
more than 3'000 contracts in this period. (Putin speech)
In the triple witch week some unforeseen moves are standard... So some bigger
market participants may force pricing into the desired area.
Only thing to be out of troubles: staying at the sidelines or watching what the
market is doing - every minute during cash hours.
Good trades
GFIs1
PS: count for the same in opposite direction
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Good call on the volatility man - I took the advice and concentrated on some new stuff. I had some good levels to work it with but too much rabbit in headlights feeling just watching it, so happy to pass!
Well done :-)
This week with all the politcal uncertainty, markets that start in minus and end in big plus - one has to
get with caution into markets - if one has the guts.
Now: tomorrow would be the last day on the march future contract. As today's Dax range was 213 points --
the normal system will not work. On Friday is triple witch and might be the next "normal" trading day here.
I am still expecting high vola tomorrow! Could be a counter day and heading down. We will see this soon
GFIs1
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Some views on Ichimoku here:
Price is still under the cloud in the daily chart - in a down leg.
The rebound from the last lows have found a stop in Tuesday's trading hours:
It jumped up (daily range 213points - and range of Monday + Tuesday 401 points)
to TenkanSen as well as the ultimate KijunSen resting horizontal at 9338.
From there price came back on closing again to TenkanSen.
This up scenario should have finished right here - and now lower prices than the
last low in the swing should be seen. Could mean the second attempt to bring
price underneath 9000 for 2 weeks in quickly downmoves (watch FED, triple witch).
Some price change to the bullish is foreseen from april first week.
Good trades
GFIs1
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SL was not 23 points - but my setup was to see lower levels and that did not come YET.
So as I posted - I closed the trade @ -23 points manually to avoid larger loss.
Today and Friday will be tricky - limit contracts to have less leverage - just my 2 cents.
GFIs1
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Checked last years results in the week after triple witch and actual week with IFO numbers:
only negative trades!
So - as we started red this was it for this week!
Will restart in week 14 - there might be more possibility to see (all) the trades in GREEN
Have a great week
GFIs1
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The retracement from the last low has ended in the daily Kumo and is sitting in there.
A breakout to higher levels seems highly impossible.
Some lower prices <9K were not seen in the last swing low.
Plus the actual Kumo is making higher resistance until April 10.
Scenario foreseen:
1) Price stays in the daily Kumo until Monday 31st march (the last of the month)
2) Some bigger downmoves (in short time) might come in then during the weeks of april
So the moment right now seems to be a decision point for further Dax development up or down.
Here we can see unforeseen moves and need to be cautious about putting our money in the market.
Good trades
GFIs1
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entry @ 9638
exit @ 9617
result +21 points.. left some points on the table
Today last of month...
Signal thin
Volume not high
UpGap again
Price of future has reached a resistance at 9655 during IB 30min
..edit: price should go into daily Kumo again today
GFIs1
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Hi Thanks for starting this thread, I followed your Hi-Lo method for ES for sometime a year back but I didn't had much success applying that method to ES. I would like to go thru this DAX method because now I can trade DAX futures and I would like to apply to one contract and see. I know you would have already outlined this method in previous post but would you please summarize it again with latest modifications etc.
Hi bmtrading9
Thanks for your input.. but: I have never traded the ES
As for my Dax threads here - the modification is to only have 3 trades per week - and not one every day.
Then the stops might be adjusted to the situation (not 30 points each trade).
If you have further questions - ask.
Thanks for quick response...would please summarize the method once more with technical details regarding method, sorry for asking this but it is very easy to get lost in searching and finding all the posts related to the method.
You are right - we are in a journal thread - more than 1'300 posts in two years...
The rules are based on psychological moments on every trading day: so Monday "fresh" money enters - to
push price up or to head down..
Wednesday is normally a turning day - so price is normally going opposite to the Monday trade.
Friday is a taking out money day - so price is often making a turning point for new levels.
If you only trade these 3 days in the Dax you may be on the winner's side.
Of course the entry time as the exit time are most important - and these are a result of
different influencing criteria like Ichimoku Kumo, gaps, developing VWAP and others.
So be prepared to see many different entries/exits at a same weekday - because there
are rules for many situations.
Good Trades
GFIs1
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At that special moment I want to thank all the readers, those who made
great input - those that made critical input.. and those that were reading only.
The main aspect of opening a trading journal here on futures.io (formerly BMT) is:
To bring one's trading style to a new level.
SO: start your own journal NOW to improve your personal trading style!
GFIs1
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is there a possibility to communicate when you close manually the position ? For those who try to follow your trades it`s hard to comprehend when and why to close earlier than the hard stop of 30 points.
The performance of your system will differ a lot from those people who will always ride till the hard stop.
A possibility would be to make a NEW reply on your thread, as there would be a notification send to all subscribers.
When you close your positions you sit anyway on the computer....
Thanks for your input - very appreciated. The mentioned "manual close" is very seldom here in fact.
Your proposal for a new post is welcomed - yes, I sit at the computer right then - and it does not this thread
cluttered anyway as these moments are counted on one hand
So I will do it next time!
Good trades
GFIs1
PS - to mention that this thread here is a journal and does not imply any proposal(s) for trades. So no guarantee
for winners - but probable.
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"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
This week started with a Stop Loss - totally
against the system trades..
Looked back to the 2 last years - 2 weeks before Easter:
Both years 2 weeks before Easter were red - last year 3 red trades.
Decided to not take a trade again this week!
After Easter things look to be normalizing
To show it in the chart here: the timing was contrary to the system normally!
I am following your system/journal.It appears to me your system is profitable over the year as you rely on several BIG winning days eg 120+ points to cancel out the many small ( upto 30 points) that you loose eg. If you have just say 20 big winning trades per year at 100 each- that works out 2000 points, then obviously you have to subtract your small losers.
It was good that early part of this year you managed to capture a few 100 plus days hence the system is still +, but if the last month no 100+ trades have been hit this massively eroding the profitablity of the sytem.
I dont think you can judge that just for 2 years that there was no positive trades the weeks before easter.As the future cannot be predictive on the past for just 1 week for a 2 year sample space.
The following user says Thank You to CPRICE76 for this post:
There are some components that make the system work. If they are not all present - the result may be quickly negative.
A main thing is the volume for the start of the day. If the volume is not good during the initial balance, the normal
trading flow and pattern might not develop. Such low volume phase is found before main holidays and during summer
holiday as well.
Therefore a view on these pre easter weeks is fundamental. Exactly as you state optimizing the good running days
and skip the stop loss days makes the system a good working one
GFIs1
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Thanks - very true: in the past shorts were more often than longs even in this bullish area we had...
Today it was foreseen long - but much later than a normal trade due to the big down gap in the morning.
It played out well - though we left some points on the table.
As the system is not explicit finding the tops and bottoms - it makes the he best out of a
highly probable move in the previewed direction.
Good trades
GFIs1
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Today no trade as yesterday's range exceeded the limit.
For those who would like to jump in anyway:
A short is suggested - ending time 16:00
So we will let it be for the week. Tomorrow is last day
before long weekend holiday and the move has to be
today (in either direction - so be cautious).
I do not expect big volume tomorrow.
GFIs1
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Yes - this should be a turning point in this downleg.
For today I do not see much movement - could even turn up a bit more..
The real movements will restart next week.
As I see the downleg not finished yet the direction is still short.
The extra long weekend with some "good" (?) news pushed the price again higher..
BUT attention: tomorrow things might settle to the original plan again..
some shorter fields may come up (wednesday as always).
Price is sitting slightly above daily Kumo - where Kumo is thin.
This may give some downmove without announcement.
Thanks boys for clapping - I know:
Announcing some 60 Dax-points WAS easy...
but it depends on plus or minus
Next moves will not be that easy during
cash hours - some vola might come in
and some lower levels could be seen.
So we are looking forward to watch
what will be coming next.
GFIs1
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No trade today due to the range of 242 points yesterday in the Dax future.
Expecting some down during the day from 09:30 but the system rule
prevents from taking a trade.
GFIs1
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outlook: came down from strong resistance area
windowdressing is over - some correction
GFIs1
edit: the short was ok - thus with soooo little volume in the morning
there was nearly no movement and direction.
As said in the other post here - the stops would have been taken out on 14:30...
heavy up and down.. to continue the travel down as seen in the morning.
So no day to get two pints ( @ratfink - YOU made it better today - LOL )
And we get to normal next week.
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Hi @ijcarruthers
Thanks for following. Yes - normal stop is 30 points.
Tight stops might occur when a setup is seen but price is moving opposite right away.
Example price is near a resistance and should turn but does not.
So these stops can vary depending of the situation from 10 to 20 points.
Thanks - normally if the stop is tight - it is announced at entry time.
Very rarely I stop a trade manually - but 98% of trades are playing out - either
stopped or taking the gain.
To keep the risk of stop hunting little I prefer to get out of a trade before important US numbers.
There are of course exceptions - especially before longer weekends where the numbers will no longer
attack the morning entry but will continue the path since opening.
..the Dax will be traded though. As I think that US futures are influencing the Dax more than GB's there
should be a normal week in the Dax.
The main point is that if there is a US or German holiday during the week - the normal money flow in
the markets and flow out of the markets is no longer in order (aka higher vola with lower volume).
In those weeks trading futures is of higher risk.
Just a thought.
Happy weekend!
GFIs1
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Great!
I have mentioned that this week will be "normal" again - so 3 trades foreseen.. -->> see post #1378
Knowing about the UK holiday the Dax is still making a way - today down.
I see a goal of 9350 today - so no conso at this very moment...
Today my tight stop was 9559 - so ten points above my entry.
I want to be precise here - the top of the next candle came up to 9558.50 again - so
that stop was sitting a bit tight but as I said before I entered - the signal is thin -
and some unnecessary upmove in low volume area could give a very negative result.
This thread is about a personal journal - thanks for following, comments and your very appreciated input.
There is substantial risk trading futures (yes - you heard about it so many times).
The barrier between being successful (in the long term) or not is a VERY HARD one!
Think about it and do not blindly follow trade announcements... ANY recommendations -
NOT even here :-)
But feel free to see some consistence and follow the basic assumptions made here ore elsewhere -
it was time to get some new followers of futures.io (formerly BMT) to the idea to get the bigger picture!
AND to profit from some good and even more bad results shown...
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Yesterday we have seen a special long Doji in the daily Dax - testing lows.
Today started again the resistance on the top and a pullback down was the result.
Taking Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart - the support for long is shrinking.
Within the next 7 days a slide through the cloud again is possible.
Support is found at 9100 (weak) and 8850 (stronger).
For tomorrow a longer travel down may result after this not very bullish moves
during cash hours and very high indecision in these sideways weeks.
GFIs1
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Special situation: daily Chikou came down to cloud top support.
Some pullback today before following the down trend again.
Volume so far ok - some slow up until afternoon quite possible.
GFIs1
nice to have a week with such gains
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Nice trade, the reason FDAX rallied was because of the Putin comments, it was news driven not technical. I was short when Putin opened his trapped, luckily for only 10 ticks
Your reason for the wednesday upside move was news driven.
My decision was ONLY from a technical approach:
1) Friday, Monday, Tuesday were short days in the Dax
2) Chikou support (daily) came into play on Wednesday morning as posted
3) As wednesday normally is a turning point in the week it turned really - up then
Look it from any point of view - there are many causes giving a (hopefully desired) effect
What does it mean for today's trade from a technical aspect?
Before taking the trade and before market has opened:
1) we had a down in the start of the week
2) Wednesday turned and was green as well yesterday
3) NO new highs were produced though
4) High resistance is still to find above (9633)
So today's trade should be from the technical aspect 9:00 to 9:30 long
then 9:30 to 14:30 short
edit: quite a dull trading day!
VERY low volume (IB not even got 7,5k contracts in 30 minutes)
Yesterday the peak volume @14:30 was > 17,5k in 30 min.
Looks like we will not get some real moves today: @ratfink - stay with the 2 pints - and do not touch any keyboard.
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Lol, just checked in and found your message, looks like I missed nothing in the Dax today! I expected a tough week between these trends but this week takes the cake! Had a very enjoyable software-keyboards time, looking forward to pushing some real triggers next week. Congrats on a good one and wishing you a great w/e. Two or Three Pints beckons! Cheers
Travel Well
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