Love your style. It helps me to make me happy before my time is coming at the US open. Do you have any details what you are looking for at the open, or it is top secret. It would be a great reading for me for tonight (at least which indicators/timeframes ) I love this concept, to create a strategy which is mainly timebased, considering with the news which could hit/change the market...
yes I am looking for:
1) opening price: is it within previous day range?
2) gap - is the gap closed within the 30 minutes?
3) direction - and daily rules...
4) 30 minute open/close: thin?
5) all system rules that are quite influencing the start/exit times...
So my trade does never start before the Initial Balance has played out (here 30 minutes)
Other marktes do NOT influence me...
Hope this helps - and of course good trade today on your TST (as it wednesday - a short
normally works better than a long)
GFIs1
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Thanks for asking - yes I have considered these bets too.
Two things to think about:
1) I am playing the second wave after the initial - that holds normally not for the day long as the binaries need
2) binaries are mostly offered by spread betting companies.. you have to find the good one to gain with
As point 1)- I think u dont have to hold the position all day- u can state at what time you want the trade to start and finish? I may be wrong.So I take it you dont like spreadbetting firms? Spread on DAX is generally 1 point during trading hours...
AH no problem, maybe you are right in having to hold the trade for the whole day to do a binary option.ADP data soon, hope we dont spike up on it to shake you out of your short.
No, actually he just knows what he's talking about...
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
Hey mate - only trading Monday, Wednesday and Friday (if not a holiday shakes the week up).
As for the Dax looking back two years of my results - the no trading days are a waste of time.
Here a little overview on my weekdays - actual points since January 2012 - via spreadsheet.
One has to consider that there were 5 trades per week in 2012 and from 2013 only 3 as I
dropped Tuesday and Thursday. Thus the percentage for these days is still falling of course.
As you can read out of the table - Wednesday is the king of this system:
GFIs1
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Fortunately the broker's fee is not really a weight in the balance: it is only a small
percentage of one point of the future traded.
If I only trade on Wednesday the performance of the system would drop to less than a half
So I am sitting in front of the screen these two extra days per week knowing that the boost
may be a bit lower.
...yes of course (for ONE contract always) - you can read here in the thread the daily/weekly and yearly results.
These weekday's are automatically calculated in the spreadsheet when I make new journal entries.
A journal should make the most important parts of your trading readable - of course without a manual input.
GFIs1
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One could get back to some previews of the bigger picture made earlier...
So I am referring to my (at that time) quite adventurous scenario of a drop in the Dax for February 2014
and have posted a chart scenario in this thread:
This is a journal with live trading posts since 2012!
Hi everybody
Thanks BigMike for the invitation to your journal competition - I am taking the rope :-)
For my trading three main points were essential and important
1) Plan your trade and …
Now I have made a short recalculation of this scenario which has played higher but resulted as previewed
mid december.
Calculation goes: ATH 9794 down to the middle of Kumo (@ 9200) results in 594 points made. The same distance is needed
to see a reversal - thus 9200-594 = 8606. This is the support level to have in mind the next few weeks.
This down move I am expecting within a few days somewhen in february. Right now the price came up
again to the lower Kumo where a hard resistance is seen.
GFIs1
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This thread is about 1 Dax trade per day - to make it easy to see the results I have broken down to 1 contract shown
in every posting - so are the results.
I am trading different accounts - so the money management tells me how to increase the number of contracts.
This is not the theme here as I want to compare naked results.
Please read also the beginning of the thread (at least the FIRST post)
GFIs1
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it was immediately a minute before ECB announcement - price dropped from 9180 to 9010
There is a limit in % change in one minute for the Dax - but I have to find it first somewhere.
Today a thought of the scenario in advance:
- yesterday's slump of 184 points down in 1 minute in the Dax future was most likely a fat finger problem - so
the rule does not omit a trade as that mini crash (which never occurs in Europe - LOL) is not counting.
- price came back up into the cloud again
- 61% retracement is resistance @ 9293
So my prediction for today: a nervous day - price up to 9293 and then a fall south to get out of the cloud
with some tempo. US numbers in the afternoon 14:30 - this is the time to get out.
Dax short 09:30 to 14:30 (will be confirmed or revised 09:25)
entry @ 9268
exit @ 9278 stopped out
result -10 points
GFIs1
Edit: looking back:
This trade was not developping as intended - I had to put a real tight stop as I was away from the screen.
Coming back it was no surprise to see prices rising again.
Two things to learn about todays's market movements:
1) Price was further in the daily Kumo and ended on upper line.
2) More important: US numbers at 14:30 were making a market shaker of more than 100 points...
So it was evident to get OUT before these numbers...
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I am in and out as planed. Before the news, the trade was in -10-15 tick, so I took my chances for a 2 folded trade. If the spike is going against me I would have been lost 20-30 tick (based on slipage) but I managed to win +25 tick, with a take profit target. Anyhow it was a 1:2 R:R ratio, I would take it anytime. If it would have been a winner already, I would get out before the news hit, but this time, it was a better play I guess
Thx GFIs1, and have a nice weekend
entry: @9267
exit: @9245
SL: @9302 (after a nice round number
maximum harm: @9297 (round number has been saved my ass this time, good SL management is always welcome:P)
overall +22 tick, with a very high risk factor to fail...
not sure why you chaps shorted; DAX closed gap as usual, overshot down to 9229 then rebounded. Would be interested to understand why you went short after gap close?
I went short first thing to catch the gap then went long at 9232 closing out too early at 9269
Like the title says I'm no expert but trade the gap and once the gap has been closed I wait a bit and trade the opposite direction. Yesterdays close was 9256 todays open was above that so I went short first thing
Honestly, you are NOT in and out like planned. You would have closed the trade with a loss of some 10 points or so because the rule is to close the position before the number comes out. The rest is gambling and luck. And there is one more point or I like to mention. Why are you trading a black-box signal? :-) Did you do your own research?
The following user says Thank You to kurucz for this post:
Was that question aimed at me? I my system is follow Asia and Dow Future, that's my signal for the day, but first thing I always look to close the gap or at least a percentage of it
If it is aimed to me I dont understand it. I am forward testing with a small capital and risk, and doing my own study in the mean time. I took my chances, when I feel I have the edge. I have a freedom, to composite my feelings, and I have a right to take my own risk, also I am gladfull to GFIs1 to giving hints and idea, and I can improve my trading skill along this...
One more comment. Taking any trade based on technical analysis is gambling just like taking the news. The differences in my understanding the following:
- u can calcate a well defined risk because i will not havi g effected slipage
- u can calculate well defined profit. U dont have to bother with the strength of the news reading
- u can have r:r bigger than 50% 50%
As i told i took my chance because the trade was just like u sad in 10-15 tick loss my risk was small (0.5% compering my capital) and the reward was high enough for a good spike. Obviusly the signal was a looser today but I got out with a winner which was pure luck nothing else. And as i told if the signal would have been in a winner side lets say +1 tick i would not have took the trade.
About the entry and a SL setting I call it smart stop settings. Based on my experience it is good to put the stop above the market open, and it was close to a nice rounded number. So it was bigger than the signal say but made me q happier camper. We are here to learn and I am a beginner trader but smart enough to adopt my learnings if I have a feeling it is right.
Trading is not about who is right or wrong it is about could you be on the winner side consistency. GFIs1 giving his signals for free with a different approach And he is on the winner side as you can see. Changing his signal to my taste is my risk and could be my edge or failure on a long run.
Hopes it clarified
My results are based on a certain strategy I have shown here for two years - giving entry and exit time
as well the direction, sometimes risk and SL settings IN ADVANCE.
The strategy is to gain in a area where price develops "normally" into a previewed pattern.
The risk has to be minimized...
The trade should get some time to develop
The risk of any important announcements (calender) is a NO GO
Looking at all the statistics out of the system trades - and doing the homework on this -
has led to a optimized trading system based on the initial settings.
Most of the discussions in this thread are on different approach - which is fine to bring in.
But here it is no scalping, swing trade or gambling.
The result of 333 points within the first 6 weeks of this year plus the terrible Dax movements
show some consistence - which is not coming out of gambling. That was done with 11 trades
which were mostly short in a bullish moment.
...is NOT important.
Looking at consistency is more.
Past wins (yes - you know the warning) are not the base for future wins.
This is very true.
In every trading there are some positive weeks and maybe even more negative weeks.
The final result is measured by the end of the year. Don't try to calculate forward
after a winning streak.
In this thread there was shown a result of around 1000 points per year for two years.
The good result from this year's start may have some "retracing" weeks to come.
So I can not interpolate wins to the whole year. My goal is to see consistency first - and I will be
very happy with the 1000 points yearly result again. THIS would mean consistency.
GFIs1
think about - happy weekend!
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W8 for pullback of the system what you really dont know means you are not managing the risk.
Riding with you with a small risk is much more fun and you already gave me a lots of money saving idea to do my trades at the right time.
I took my long term chances with you hope you are going to post these for anlomg time!
Oh yes, he certainly will...for only $250 / month if you subscribe until Sunday, it's the real deal and a bargain !
...Sorry my friend @GFIs1, you know that I just couldn't resist...
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following 3 users say Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
Of course, there's nothing wrong with that, and learning to trade @GFIs1's style is certainly one of the most promising and stress-free approaches you can get in trading.
Having that said, learning is the keyword, but by all means, please avoid just to copy his style.
But I'm sure that you've got that already...so it's been only a very friendly poke.
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following 3 users say Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
a) if you are subscribing to a expensive signal service it brings of course a lot of money!! **
b) if you read futures.io (formerly BMT)-threads (also those you have not to subscribe) you get signals for free
** have to finish the above sentence: "..brings a lot of money for the signal service only
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Hehe...Yep that's correct, at least in regards to a) and b).
BUT...in case of YOUR 'signal service', BOTH vendor and client will make money.
And as I mentioned the 'real deal' above, that wasn't meant ironically in any way.
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
I'd like to complement GFIs work with a few thoughts before the open of the day. I'm primarily interested in probable outcomes, that can be predicted with a higher degree of certainty than flipping a coin (50:50); entry is my biggest area for improvement as well as risk management.
My strategy is to fade the gap, and use gap zone probabilities designed by Scott Andrews to help improve my selection. I'm not using the service provided by "MasterTheGap" as it does cater for the DAX (unfortunately). A good reference point is:
Now Monday will be interesting looking at the DOW's performance on Friday will the Gap fade and then move onto take out the Lap? I expect the gap to fade but not the entire lap. At which point I expect a rebound to new highs beyond the open.
Thanks genlemensrelish for input.
I can see your gap strategy very well - I am not trading this one as I am trading the second wave. Gaps are certainly
a important part in my system for the time of when a second wave should start then.
May I propose to you to open your own Dax Gap thread journal to show many thread followers the results?
This would be great. I think there could be a lot of discussions in such approach.
Here in my thread I am only looking after the Opening to get the most points as long as volume is there
and to get out before every previewed announcement (here I am repeating my view again).
Entry is my primary concern and I feel that your shorts are following the gap/lap close process. Have you formalised your system, a spreadsheet etc? I would be happy to share my data with anyone who is interested. I won't monopolise your thread, but will just add Gap Map data once per day if that is OK?
There is room here to discuss the strategies.
What you have on a one page rule set this is NOT to compare to my ONE page rule set for my system.
The main problem - which made it difficult to program it - is that I the system has some very clear rules
plus some that are deriving especially from the Ichimoku indicator. In this I am considering the daily
plus the 30 minutes chart.
Reading this thread carefully - one can note well that the rules are NOT made for every day but has
a special close look at EVERY weekday.
So this rule set is very different to any gap rule set which is meant to trade when that pattern is coming
without looking at the weekday itself.
Every trader has his own trading style and plan (if ever )
The only thing I can openly say is that this system described in this thread is working more than 3 years
(2 years documented here) and is still positive even the market conditions have changed tremendous
in this period.
GFIs1
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GFI - we can all clearly see how impressive your system is and are in great appreciation for you insight on here - many thanks! If you don't mind I'd like to continue to add my thoughts to your thread and will follow your guidance and expertise - please keep up the good work!
The following 2 users say Thank You to gentlemensrelish for this post:
A few observations for the DAX tomorrow assuming Asia follows the up trend. Both a gap and a lap tend to indicate an up day from the previous close. I expect an open around 9330-9340 an early morning pull-back to close the gap (not the lap) to 9325-9335 then a rebound to close out between 9380-9400. This forecast is based on historical probability.
Lets see how misty my crystal ball is!
The following user says Thank You to gentlemensrelish for this post:
based on the probability that a GAP & a LAP produces a positive next day I've gone long again, only for a 10 point exit @ 9316 - please don't tell me off - just highlighting a trade based on probable outcomes
No disrespect intended but in my humble opinion I think it would probably be much better if @GFIs1's unique approach and journal was itself given more respect and left as his own space. Adding discussion is one thing but posting individual trades is taking it too far, we all have plenty of space on futures.io (formerly BMT) for that.
Travel Well
The following 9 users say Thank You to ratfink for this post:
Don't be shy of posting but, as @GFIs1 had already suggested, maybe start your own journal and sketch out your approach and post some setups and/or trades with own charts - that's BM's philosophy so that we help ourselves first, plenty of us will be interested too. It takes effort and discipline to do it well though, far more than I have but I would definitely recommend giving it a go.
Travel Well
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The mini-gap to yesterday - price falling underneath 9600 was made in the first 30 minutes.
It seems unlikely to see this again - only if the long is really turning.
Therefore a 10 point stop is ok.
GFIs1
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The good thing about the DAX is that it is asymmetric in the way it moves. If you get the direction right the noise part of the daily range is small - about 20% of it (usually .. more at the moment obv).
The GFIs1 method (if I may say so) is all about letting the noise out of the morning move and then letting the overall trend , or weekday characteristic, take over.
10 points on the DAX is of course very very tight indeed. There are 1 minute pullbacks bigger than that. I have a 10 points sort of "standard stop" and I can tell you, I get belted a lot if I am not very stingy with my entries.
Using the not very scientific method of just "casting my mind back" on a year worth of trades, on the entry side, the GFIs1 trades work well when the stop is below the D-Low or above the D-High. This is of course consistent with a lot of other methods of price action watching.
Whatever your entry and exit method, be aware of getting slapped around in the noise.
p
The following user says Thank You to podski for this post:
If the signal is strong: you may put a 10 point stop because the reversal at 09:30 is often seen.. so the stop is
only decoration anyway.
If the signal is thin (as we had here): you better put a tight stop - here 10 points again - to protect your capital.
When the reversal does not come - it is important to let not 30 points of a normal stop on the table.
As I am not moving stops during a trade this is the moment of careful adjusting the stop BEFORE entering.
We see here that the 10 point stop can be decoration or prevention - on a same trade.
GFIs1
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Sometimes a stop is hit - this is to prevent from desaster and to protect the investment.
Now the week develops and on Wednesday the normal short is foreseen.
Thanks for following.
GFIs1
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Always market price - the times I enter and exit a trade the market is normally quite liquid.
Plus I need a veryfiable price which I have to state here
GFIs1
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we had 2 main occurences
1) little witch day 13:00
2) quite a up gap in difficult area plus low volume
This was a warning to take a trade...
or to give noise more room at least
Looking at this moment right now - the volume has not even
hit 50K - which is at a normal day >90K - one can see that
we are IN THIN AIR right now!
some weeks with drawdowns are still calculated to happen.
GFIs1
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the VOL is very low indeed, i got a perfect signal at 9612.5 (2 5' bars on high vol) but because of the low vol later i got out with a very small profit. Should have stayed in the trade tho. Better luck next week
Have a nice weekend
The following user says Thank You to ChannelTrader for this post:
I've been sitting quietly (as requested quite rightly by other members) and observing. In my view "closing the gap" before the US market opens and the massive influence of the US market needs to be considered.
In fact US futures and then Dax futures are joined at birth.
Don't shoot me down but I strongly suggest trying to incorporate these elements into your trading model, if you haven't already.
(at least which indicators/timeframes
