Last day of the year - time to look back on the two years:
Both years show nearly the same final result although the fact that markets developped differently.
In 2012 every week had mostly 5 trades. In 2013 the trades went down to 3 per week. The rule
change was quite effective as two needless trades during every week could be skipped.
At the moment there are no optimizing effects in sight - so the rule set will be the same for starting
into 2014.
Have a good start into next year!
GFIs1
The following 12 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Great and very consistent results @GFIs1, keep up your good work !
I wish you all the best for 2014, Happy New Year !
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
The Friday Dax trade of the first half week of 2014 will NOT take place:
Thursday's day range in the Dax is with 231 points (short) way out!
What a beginning of the year ;-)
So not trade before Monday.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Yes indeed, I took your exact same entry later in the morning, sat on it for one hour and dropped it for -2T for the same reason. Then I had to go out to collect new spectacles - maybe I get a clearer view of life and charts next week!
Have a good w/e.
Travel Well
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
Sure that around ATH touched several times a short attempt is riskier - therefore the stop loss is
adapted to this special situation to get without a big loss.
This is the only time where a trade has to be watched here in this system. Normall the SL settings
are only desaster stops to be out of noise but near enough to let not losers run
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
PS: Trading is NOT a 100m race...
It IS a MARATHON
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
There were no important numbers in this week...
Then there is the start of the main company numbers (normally the ones
with the biggest impact).
So... the numbers are getting down the price - at least for this moment
to come back to test some lower price.
Now the answer to intro question: the overheated bullish development HAS
to come back to certain levels - at LEAST:
on Wednesday's
GFIs1
PS - to put some weight on that:
Roger Federer has just pushed out Murray in the quarters of Aussie Open
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I am using Linnsofts InvestorRT for the bigger picture as well some Ichimoku Charts for support/resistance
as well as a five day profile for the "faster" areas... just browse a bit through the journal to watch mentioned
charts.
For trading the system in this journal here - there is no specific need of a chart though:
Just the rules and a calculator - thats all!
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Day range around 275 points... (not EOD yet)
and only that little?
Yes - the outcome of the US numbers this afternoon was not clear
so the profit was of the Dax movement before US only.
Now looking forward to the next week:
Don't wait to see a trade here before Wednesday!
Today - the price of the Dax future was diving through TenkanSen and
landed softly in the last trading minute on the KijunSen which is a major support
in this phase using Ichimoku:
The daily chart shows this rare long downmove as a consolidation in this strong bullish move.
From this point some upmove within the next 2 trading days are highly probable - and as YOU
can guess GFIs1's wednesday will then be the next short
(looking at all january trades more winners came from short trades despite the bulls)
GFIs1
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Quite a heavy move in one day.
Futurestrader 71 has tweeted to this topic:
11K dollars IS a great win per car if you take the full range of the day :-)
BUT - if you are betting on the false direction - the loss would be the same height
Therefore during volatile days (expecting to see some more this week) it is
important to use SL wisely.
GFIs1
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My normal stops are at 30 points - just to be out of noise.
If the situation gives a tight stop - that can be 8 or 15 points.
Such is the case when in the morning the signal is "thin".
Good trades
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Looking at my weekday statistic over the last 2 years - wednesday shorts taken (>90% of the time)
gave the highest payback
It was over 35% of all gains of the week.
There is a possibility to play this game ONLY on wednesday's but with a bit more risk.
Was just thinking loud.
GFIs1
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For the UK spread betters there are many companies offering a bet on higher / lower price of an index
from entry to end of day.
Looking at that mentioned result - plus the wednesday short strategy one could only bet with higher
leverage on such a wednesday daily bet - and surely win:
this would reduce even more to the max. YES!! thanks boys and girl for the THANKS
And BTW...I think you'll get a VERY nice profit from today's trade...
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
Going SHORT from 0930 to 1300 every Wed from 2009 with no stops would have netted you around minus 600 points (meaning losing!). All according to my quick knock up excel sheet anyways. 135 of the 260 trade days the Wed price was higher at 1300.
Quick Edit: - Although in 2012 and 2013 the SHORT play would have won you 200 points (all without stops etc)
The following 2 users say Thank You to sixtyseven for this post:
The missing link.. Goes here:
You contribute 4 elite memberships to the new created futures.io (formerly BMT) Fund for Poor Traders (futures.io (formerly BMT) FfPT).
A poor trader has to proof to have busted the account once to get elite membership for free then.
In return you (the contributor) get a free ONE year profit eMail for your weekly wednesday trade.
This letter is of course sent only once. The easy to read proposition will state "GO SHORT!" 50x
Happy wednesday trading
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
May you quickly ask your excel sheet how entering on wednesday 09:00 short and holding til' EOD had brought 2009 to now? Just to see the spread bet wins...
Thanks for your help.
LOL....I was already tempted to subscribe and shout out "DEAL" until I got to the last sentence of your post.
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
The following user says Thank You to Daytrader999 for this post:
Rule says NO trade one day after day was >150 points AND
two days after day HiLo was >250 points
In my experience I have no 350 points rule yet
As for friday - the normal rule set will not work.
I try to give out a trade for friday near 9:30 - but I will not take it
into my system trades here in this thread.
Hope this helps
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
..have to go slowly now. Last year the 300 was knocked first in week 9 but some
crawling back made the "steep" up very weak.
Only from week 14 it went from 265 straight to 444.
Trading now day to day - as they say in tennis: every ball counts!
GFIs1 waiting for the good setup
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Does that mean you could be tempted to place a trade tmmrw? ( Thurs) hahaha.Or do the rules still apply?.Hence the old addage " Slowly slowly catchy the monkey" etc...
Hi there I'm a new member to this site but have been following the DAX for a couple of years. I'm interested in the stats behind the moves, for example when drops over 250 points what is the average rebound value; how often does the DAX fill the gap and strange out of hours spikes.
Has anyone else researched these trends?
GFIs I like your thread but can't find any updated twitter trade logs? Do you post live trades or only when the results are in, it would be useful if you could post live trades!
My patterns only tell me to do not trade for one day when 150p range was yesterday - and two days if yesterday's
range was 250 points.. I have no statistics about the rebounds - as they are not of interest in my view.
But as seen the last week - these two rules held - and the system made positive gains and omitted losses on these
"difficult days" after some bigger move.
1) I dropped twitter - as I am doing all here and with more details on futures.io (formerly BMT)
2) There is no time to read the chart in the morning, analize, posting on twitter, writing on futures.io (formerly BMT) AND take the trade on different accounts - at THE SAME time...
3) I am posting all my trades in advance here on futures.io (formerly BMT) - you just need to be here around 09:30 when I post decisions.
Then after the first post - I am adding the entry price and the exit price. To end it (as when the SL was not hit) I am
adding my end price and the result. This is ALL in ONE POST - to avoid extra posting for every detail. As for it - the readers that are reading once per week it is much more convenient to see a trading day with details in one post.
As my regular readers may support this - my announcing is always with entry time and exit time - and most of the time I am
giving out a stop setting according to the condition at time.
Hope this helps!
GFIs1
PS: I think I am here still the only poster in the forum (not the chat) to give ALL details of a trade in advance
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
You mention your system (rules such as 150 and 250 point drops) do you have these documented anywhere I would love to help you expand on these? Have you ever considered setting up your own DAX forum?
Read carefully the 117 pages of the thread - some minor changes occured to the trading rules - especially SL settings
over time and to trop Tuesday and Thursday trades as they did not add a big result.
The discussion here in the thread is about details - which might be different for every trader of course.
However the main and core rules are quite complicated and are based on a lot of things to check
to get the according entry and exit times on a given day.
So my whole system is not documented here - as it would throw most of the readers out of the race as they
do not have the necessary data at hand.
At last - I am giving all my advice here for free since more than two years and had never got a penny back
Wish you a happy weekend
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
After having made enough to quit trading - I will first visit Mike in Equador for a COLD BEAR, thanks etc.
and then move on further to retire on Mauritius...
No need for more forums..
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Interesting bit of research I've been looking into on the DAX. If you want to gain 5 pips per day you can trade the gap on the DAX.
At open set a trade with a view of closing the gap from the previous session (we aren't looking for the full gap to be closed just a 5 pip profit); If DAX gaps up at open short with a 5 pip target, if DAX gaps down at open long with a 5 pip target.
Factors to look out for:
1. If Asia has dropped more than +0.4% and DAX gaps down sit on the side line
2. If Asia had risen more than +0.4% and DAX gaps up sit on the side line
If any one is interested I have historic data and back tests.
GFI - thanks for the input; can you expand on "daily Kumo" - are you referring to cloud patterns? These cloud patterns are calculated via moving averages (between 9 - 26 - 52 days from what I've seen before???). Do you have any reference material on the "daily Kumo"?
Do you use gap trading at the heart of your system?
Kumo or Cloud is part of the Ichimoku system and as you state this is what I am integrating for my core rules.
Meaning passing a "cloud" in a plane is about the same here in trading to see some turbulence aka "Blind Flight".
You will find these daily charts with Kumo if you search within this thread for "big picture" or "bigger picture".
Of course there is a lot of material about Ichimoku and clouds - depends on what you are looking for - the
technical aspect or how to trade it. There is a book from Karin Roller (which I have not read though) and she
is giving out a interesting Dax forecast every second day: DAX Tageschart Ichimoku-Analyse | vtad in german.
See this technical page and find a video describing details: Investor/RT - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
About the gaps you are asking - these are important points to decide "when" to start a trade. As I am not trading
the gaps itself in the system here they still influence the starting points as well as the direction. My entry is never
before 09:30. So the gap itself is not part of the trade.
You can see that I am not looking for a fixed point goal but a good result with high probability and stops outside noise.
If you are looking for guys trading the gap you will find for threads here too.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
There are many definitions for gaps in total.
MY definition is based on this:
- only looking at cash trading hours
- measuring the Hi/Lo of the previous day
If price is within the previous day range I see NO gap even
if opening price is gapping to the close of yesterday.
If price is outside the previous day range there is a gap.
Then there are occurences within the first 30 minutes of the opening
where I look if the price has come back to previous day's range or not.
A second part is to see if the opening price is outside of 100% of previous
day's range.
All these tiny parts are important to see a highly probable direction for the
next 2 to 5 hours - as the "runner" should not be taken out too early.
Taking all things together to a "system" - we are only looking for patterns
under certain conditions.
GFIs1
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...was well played!!!
no rule would have given a positive result.
expect still strange behaviour this afternoon especially when US markets start...
So stay at the sidelines to watch this ride
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Interesting chart today. Lots of strength on both FTSE & DAX first part of the morning session especially after a big fall on the Japanese market (3.6% and 100 point drop after the bell). 10:45 am CET the drop begins., with a low of circa 9070. The direction then changes with a high at circa 4:00 pm CET 9166, then the market weakens as the DOW runs out of puff. After the bell the strength of the DOW pulls up the DAX.
Interesting point the close of Monday 3rd Feb 9186 was not closed missing by 20 points!
Well done to those that caught the long bus at 9070!
FTSE has bullish legs this morning and has helped the DAX to close the gap; a soon as gap closed down 10 point; those that shorted at gap closed my hat is off to you! If FTSE has momentum it may reduce decline on DAX
Dax started lower - still under daily Kumo. Made a test of lower water in IB to move up (as foreseen).
At 10:00 the Einkaufsmanagerindex was pushing price with uncertainty down. That held for 2 minutes
Now I see the bulls exhausting around 10:30 - the perfect time to take a short which wanders underneath today's
low. The Dax will make the path without influence from Asia or footsie.
Seeing 9K killed VERY soon.
Actual - the turning point in the next 25 minutes might be Dax Future @ 9157! just my 2 cents
Good trades
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
What is your profit target here? I can read the SL which would be @9180 are (if I am guessing right) but are u setting up any profit target in advance, or just letting the DAX ride, and let us know when to get out?
Thank you for your journal, I am using a familiar methadology during the US market open with TF and YM
Thanks matevisky :-)
I am only riding the second wave - so today I will go out 14:30 exactly - with NO number target - but
only taking what market is giving.
Today I have set a hard stop at 9168 as I do not really expect price coming up to there
reason:
1) Kumo above price will not reenter
2) the turning point was made nearly to the point
3) system says short entry time 10:30 and that has passed
Nice to hear that you have same patterns in other instruments - may have to dive in too
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Thx, I dont now what the Kumo stand for. I am using a different approach, but mainly the idea is the same. I am doing my hard trades on market high/lows based on fibs and MACDBB on tick chart. I am shooting for small wins (30-40 ticks) and be ready as soon as it possible, but it is always good to see new ways which is fit for my taste
It would be helpfull if you are updating the SL area during the entry, at least with some hints (tight short, last LH etc..) but if it is too much to ask than it is fine like this as well
So welcome aboard. One more question. Are you managing the BE as well during your trades, or after big moves in your favor or not? I have seen some BE trades as well, so my guess you are doing this too...
Kumo is part of the Ichimoku Indicator - you can see many charts showing it in this thread. It describes a zone of support/resistance and is important in 30min as 1day view. Kumo = cloud.
I am normally giving a SL hint when signal is thin or the situation does look bad for the foreseen trade. Normally
my stop is 30 points away as a desaster stop. The stop will never moved - as normally I do not actively follow
the trade. The idea is to save time - to see exactly the 30 minutes entry time (IB) and then check for entry time
and exit time. Either the trade works as foreseen or the SL of 30 points is the result.
Looking back to my 2 years on futures.io (formerly BMT)-journal here - this worked most of the time.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Makes a much of sense, and thank you. I will do the live forward test 30tick SL makes help me to adjust my risk properly thank you! Tight hint also good to know? Are you using the same risk level in case of tight range, or you are lowering the risk those time:
Example: entering with 1 contract with 30tick SL and you are enterint 3 contract in case of 10tick SL or you are going back to 1 contract for 10tick SL? Thank you for your clarification in advance...
I am going "all in" and SL settings for all the same - so no smaller risk or buying in or out..
Just plain using the system: on the second - go in - on the second go out.. SL settings
are only there to be out of noise within the trading TIME.
My system foresees to trade the lower risk time zone and excluding any number announcements
aka attacks - therefore the movements of price are always smoother then.
wishing you a nice gulyás, pörkölt or paprikás csirke with a dessert at 14:30: Rétes
GFIs1
You are closing out at 14.30 if not stopped out?What about the US ADP Emplyment data at 14.15? I thought you never held positions over US data release?
You are right - US data influences a lot...
but these employment numbers ar only class 1 of 3 and are not important to my exit..
If you look carefully - the important numbers are ALWAYS 30min or full hour.
So I will exit at 14:30 exactly... and as given in my first today's post.
One day doesnt count, but always a good start if it is a winner with a hungarian dinner:P thx! So just to ensure what you are saying, if you are using tighter stop like 10tick instead of 30tick, than you are going to the battle with 3 contract instead of 1 contract (same risk if the SL hit)...
The contracts thrown in are NOT important - it is the system that counts: either win or SL!
That easy - my stops here are only decoration for really faulty assumption on the real move.
Being on the winning side - some SL hits are not destroying my account. This is part of
the game - I take it no longer personally - it is investment on the go... - as in every business.
Good trades all
GFIs1
PS: as you might see - i LIKE hungarian cuisine
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Ok, so what you are doing is the following. You have 10KUSD on your account, you know that your SL usualy is 30tick, so you are playing with 1 contract. No matter what. Sometimes the SL is tighter, but you are doing the same rutin, because you know that your system is a winner, so it doesnt make any sense, to overcomplicated it, with calculation. When your account size is reaching the 20K USD, you make a smile, and after this you are playing with 2 contracs...
You are a lazy person with a good system (one is true for me as well...:P)
PS: Your hungarian is better than mine. I never use accented characters I am a lazy person
My hungarian does not exist... I know Szégédin gulyŕs and can write it accordingly - my french with all
accents is very good - so is italian, german and english. As a partly "Wiener Schnitzel" I am quite fond of
hungarian cuisine - and loved it always - the accents may sleep
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
