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GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal

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  #1001 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
PS: *** POST 1'000 ***
never thought to reach this in one thread
thanks to all followers

Congratulations and thanks for all the work!

Shame Daxen is in one of its 'ES is sitting at targets and I don't know what to do' days ...

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  #1002 (permalink)
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Congratulations and thanks for all the work!

Thanks for compliments

In fact - I was checking my best weekdays to trade the Dax
with this system.
Found that Wednesdeay is the best (counting 18 months) where
trades gave double of Monday and of Friday - over all weeks.

In this case...
a) sleep well on Sunday
b) do not get up on bloody Mondays
c) stretch all day long on Tuesdays
d) Put ALL IN on Wednsdays...
and
e) spend all gain on the long weekend

GFIs1

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  #1003 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
In this case...
a) sleep well on Sunday
b) do not get up on bloody Mondays
c) stretch all day long on Tuesdays
d) Put ALL IN on Wednsdays...
and
e) spend all gain on the long weekend

GFIs1

Hmmm...I think I could get used to this kind of life(style).

Thank for this thread and your great work !

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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  #1004 (permalink)
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After having seen some impressive upmoves recently, we are now exactly
before killing the 9'000 in the DAX. Another ATH then.
If it is seen today - ok.
In any case some pullback will arrive tomorrow.
Up to the moment the day had a range of 127 points - a trade
tomorrow will be ok.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #1005 (permalink)
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Have checked the Fib Levels for the Dax out of the last movements here:
Seems that 9K is not ripe just now.
Fib-Levels are
61,8%: 8'999
100%: 9'142
161%: 9374

Some extra bullish power needed to reach next levels above.

GFIs1

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  #1006 (permalink)
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Dax short 10:30 to 14:30
entry @ 8904
exit @ 8926
result minus 22 points

GFIs1

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  #1007 (permalink)
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Normally the bigger moves in the Dax are seen on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
This week the first attempt to kill 9K was on Tuesday with a big boost.
Tomorrow Friday we will see IFO numbers (10:00).

Scenario could be: today attempt to make the jump over 9K - turning at 9033.
Friday's IFO is then alreday "included" and some retracing under 9K could
finish this shaky week.

Good trades
GFIs1

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Above scenario did not really work..
There was a peak in the Dax future over 9000 yesterday @ 12:08 but closed quickly lower. The
Dax itself did only reach 12 points under 9K.

Today is IFO day (good numbers expected).

Dax long 09:30 to 14:30
entry @ 8958
exit @ 8995
result plus 37
signal not so strong - SL tight

GFIs1

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  #1009 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Above scenario did not really work..
There was a peak in the Dax future over 9000 yesterday @ 12:08 but closed quickly lower. The
Dax itself did only reach 12 points under 9K.

Do today is IFO day (good numbers expected).

Dax long 09:30 to 14:30
entry @ 8958
signal not so strong - SL tight

GFIs1

Attempts to take out 9000 were crippy!

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  #1010 (permalink)
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@xelaar


Good possible that today it works...
a) end of week
b) US numbers 14:30 (should be good as well)
c) the Dax future broke it already shortly - the Dax can follow now

GFIs1

edit - the beast did it 13:20

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GFIs1 View Post
edit - the beast did it 13:20

Have a great w/e!

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  #1012 (permalink)
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This week had three trades

One negative (minus 22 points)
Two positive (+7 + 37 points)
Weekly result plus 22 points
Points since week 2: 838

A shaky week is now past.
9000 in DAX came today - expecting some
retracement for the next week.
The rally may continue from November...

Happy weekend!

GFIs1

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Dax short 12:30 to 15:00

entry @ 8989
exit @ 8976
result plus 13 points


Outlook - expecting to see Dax pushing in the morning a bit til' 9033 to turn there.
... that power was not here! - Now having a look at the movements from now
looking for 8942 within the time frame set

GFIs1

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3 trades foreseen:
Monday, Wednesday and Thursday - as this day is the last of the month.
Expecting the movements then - NO trade on Friday.
Next week Thanksgiving - will mix up days as well.

Good trades
GFIs1

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Three trades....
As Monday is US holiday - the start will be on Tuesday,
next trading day on Wednesday plus
last day Friday.

Hope this will get some EXTRA points :-)

GFIs1

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Low volume today:

BUT

Dax closes above 9K for the first time - this is a good bullish signal for next weeks

GFIs1

..turning point 9033/36?

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Dax short 09:30 to 14:30 foreseen

Volume today ok - bulls still pushing - best October since Dax started

entry @ 9047
exit @ 9024
result plus 24 points

GFIs1

entry not optimal - as bulls pushed higher in the morning

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Thursday - last of month:
higher volume expected - trade foreseen - might push up or come down - start 09:30

Friday:
not much volume expected - no trade foreseen - as US has long weekend

Monday:
US Thanksgiving Day - US closed - no trade foreseen

Tuesday:
DAX should start with normal volume - trade foreseen

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Thursday - last of month:
higher volume expected - trade foreseen - might push up or come down - start 09:30

Friday:
not much volume expected - no trade foreseen - as US has long weekend

Monday:
US Thanksgiving Day - US closed - no trade foreseen

Tuesday:
DAX should start with normal volume - trade foreseen

GFIs1

There is no bank holiday or thanksgiving on monday.

Please check your calendar again

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Balanar View Post
There is no bank holiday or thanksgiving on monday.

Please check your calendar again

Thanks for chiming in... You are totally right
my calender entry was faulty! - So Monday starts normal.
The rest will be as described.

So here the calendar for turkeys (past and futures):



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Looking at the bullish Dax - there is one last possibility to consolidate above the KUMO
to near 8600 and not crossing the Kumo.
Details:



This scenario is good for the next 2-3 weeks - Then the futures might be pushing into a year end rally.

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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 09:30 to 14:30 foreseen

Volume today ok - bulls still pushing - best October since Dax started

entry @ 9047
exit @ 9024
result plus 24 points

GFIs1

entry not optimal - as bulls pushed higher in the morning

Good trade - I still really admire your not optimal entries - takes balls!

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Today - last of month

DAX short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 8998
exit @ 9018 SL
result minus 20 points

Today a slow ride down foreseen (battle at 9K)..
so stop could be tight

Good trades
GFIs1

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This week had three trades

two positive +13 +23 points
one negative - 20 points
Weekly result +16 points

Points since week 2: 854

GFIs1

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Dax has been a queen bitch for a good while now, I don't even open the main account at the moment.

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Dax has been a queen bitch for a good while now, I don't even open the main account at the moment.

Thanks - very true!
It is always a on thin ice

So I always need to put my nice white gloves on - before pushing the button

GFIs1

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Dax opened with a good IB range, good volume - but no clear signal.
No trade today...
Expecting a balanced day - end of day might be at the opening point again.

GFIs1

EDIT: next downmove 90% probability on Wednesday

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GFIs1 View Post
Expecting a balanced day - end of day might be at the opening point again.

GFIs1

Dax Future opened @ 9032.5 (09:00)
and closed @ 9034.5 (17:30)
quite - the SAME

GFIs1

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First time since september 20 this year that price is wading through 30min AND 60min
red Kumo during cash hours.

Some conso might now take place.
Expecting some rotations here (9K battle)
before seeing lower levels again before
year end rally (new ATH?)

GFIs1

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A quick illustration on previewed down movement within conso:



GFIs1

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Dax short 09:30 to 12:00

entry @ 9053
exit @ 9052

result plus 1p
stop tight

GFIs1

very indecisive morning ;-)

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.. is visible:



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  #1033 (permalink)
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Distribution cycle? If looking from VSA point of view (which is very valid for daily charts imo) we should wait to see a spring/test to get an idea if this leg of uptrend is over. What is your take?

Thanks
Alex

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xelaar View Post
Distribution cycle? If looking from VSA point of view (which is very valid for daily charts imo) we should wait to see a spring/test to get an idea if this leg of uptrend is over. What is your take?

Thanks
Alex

Hi Alex - everyone awaiting a "healthy" retracement before higher highs are seen...
Today it did not show up.. even Wednesdays normally show some dosed shorts in
the mornings.
Tomorrow ECB decision - and even now - no conso in sight.
As this indecided Wednesday shows - one has to be cautious on shorts - as well
as jumping in long right now. - For sure the bulls are not tired yet.
Good trades! GFIs1

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Today - the ECB decision brought exactly the up jump - which leads to
a NoGo for a GFIs1 system trade tomorrow...

Today had a 169 point range - which prevents from taking the
usual Friday trade...

For all readers who are listening carefully - I will send out a trade proposal
tomorrow - but not after my normal rules then.

GFIs1

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a optional one - GFIs1 does not take it - after Previous Day Range exceeded 150 points.

Dax short 09:30 to 16:30

entry @ 9028
exit @
result

GFIs1

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This week had only 1 trade
on wednesday +1 point

Total points since week 3: 855

Friday trade proposal did not work..
so the rule to not trade was fine.

GFIs1

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Today a special situation: US Veterans Day - US closed

Dax SHORT 12:30 to 15:00
expecting no big range. IB only 23 points - diving into prev Day Range first 30 min.
seeing some decent up until 12:30

entry @ 9095
exit @ 9099
result minus 4 points ** for those still invested short - stay 1h more **

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Today a special situation: US Veterans Day - US closed

Dax short 12:30 to 15:00
expecting no big range. IB only 23 points - diving into prev Day Range first 30 min.
seeing some decent up until 12:30

entry @
exit @
result

GFIs1

Hi GFIs1,

Just FYI, US isn´t closed today.

Abde

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Abde View Post
Hi GFIs1,

Just FYI, US isn´t closed today.

Abde

Yep, just the Bond Market is closed today...

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Hi GFIs1,

Just FYI, US isn´t closed today.

Abde

thanks for the hint...
expecting not same volume as on normal days though

GFIs1

PS: I had a check @ DerivateCheck - not much to read today ;-)

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Says bank holiday due to veterans day. Exchange might be open but patterns will be different. Same with dax today. Its open but it is very weird, tight ranges.

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Eu banks also closed. Armestice day.

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Dax short 12:30 to 15:00
expecting no big range. IB only 23 points - diving into prev Day Range first 30 min.
seeing some decent up until 12:30
GFIs1

now @*12:27 - no real big move
IB (30 min) 23 points
Cash hour range 32 points....

GFIs1

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Dax short 09:30 to 12:00

entry @ 9072
exit @ 9052
result 20 points

GFIs1

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Dax long 09:30 :14:30

entry @ 9145
exit @ 9179
result plus 34

some bullish continuum expected - but SL tight

GFIs1

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This week had two trades

Positive +20 + 34 points
Weekly result +54 points
Points since week 2: 909

GFIs1

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Now we are in the last weeks of the year - time to compare how the system went over time.
In the thread is discussed how the rules were slightly optimized - I will not repeat here.

Last year week 46 was at the year end result - the last weeks 2012 were not changing this any more.

Points made end of week 46
Year 2012: 1011
Year 2013: 909 (expecting here some more points in the coming weeks)

Actual chart of weekly points made in 2013




Discussion:
Both years show quite similar returns. There was a steady gain development without big drawdowns.
In 2013 were less trades taken than in 2012 (normally 3 per week instead of 5).
So given a gain of rough 1'000 yearly future points X 25€ (per point with IB) this nets 25K € in year per car
on a margin which ranged between 6400 to 10'600€ per car in the given 2 years.

End note: The system (rules) looks quite robust over 2 years under the pressure of so many very
different influences and quite different development of the Dax in both compared years.

GFIs1

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Fantastic results! Margin wise Mirus has 2500 usd margin for dax.

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Thanks @xelaar

If margin is lower - the gain per point must be less too
In the whole thread I was showing only one provider for better comparison for the reader.

Of course I will check your Mirus input!
Happy weekend

GFIs1

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Thanks @GFIs1 for sharing these quite impressive results !

...And IMO the outcome of 2013 has to be rated even higher compared to 2012, since market conditions have been tougher and more challenging compared to 2012...

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Fantastic results! Margin wise Mirus has 2500 usd margin for dax.

Checked on the mirusfutures page - found the margin as you told.
Could not find any details page though for Eurex products - looks they are all vanished rigth now

Can you tell me the gain per point for the FDAX at Mirus? So I can make a full comparison - Thanks!

GFIs1

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Checked on the mirusfutures page - found the margin as you told.
Could not find any details page though for Eurex products - looks they are all vanished rigth now

Can you tell me the gain per point for the FDAX at Mirus? So I can make a full comparison - Thanks!

GFIs1

How come it can be any different, does not depend on a broker. 12.5 euro everywhere per tuch. 25 per point. Amp same, margin 3500 usd. 30 euro per month in fee to be connected to eurex.

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Truly excellent consistency over time my friend, just fantastic!

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GFIs1 View Post
Checked on the mirusfutures page - found the margin as you told.
Could not find any details page though for Eurex products - looks they are all vanished rigth now

Can you tell me the gain per point for the FDAX at Mirus? So I can make a full comparison - Thanks!

GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1,

Maybe you should also check Cannon Trading which has a margin of $2000 for the DAX.

https://www.cannontrading.com/services/futures-trading-margins

Abde

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Hi @GFIs1,

Maybe you should also check Cannon Trading which has a margin of $2000 for the DAX.

https://www.cannontrading.com/services/futures-trading-margins

Abde

Thanks for all your inputs! I am learning every day more
Was only curious what other traders are getting with their brokers.
In fact - as I am trading mainly € accounts - there is no need to put more money at risk putting
it into another currency.

With IB I have the possibility to treat several accounts with one order at the same time.
This is called advisor account. The splitting is made first - then the execution goes to all
attached accounts.
I am listening carefully - if you have this possibility too with other brokers.

GFIs1

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Thanks for all your inputs! I am learning every day more
Was only curious what other traders are getting with their brokers.
In fact - as I am trading mainly € accounts - there is no need to put more money at risk putting
it into another currency.

With IB I have the possibility to treat several accounts with one order at the same time.
This is called advisor account. The splitting is made first - then the execution goes to all
attached accounts.
I am listening carefully - if you have this possibility too with other brokers.

GFIs1

I think it should be possible with almost every broker, that the account/s gets managed in Euros. And also your need to have accounts attached to a major account, shouldn't be much of a problem to adapt. The most brokers call it institutional account. Just make a request und you will see.

Abde

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Thanks for all your inputs! I am learning every day more
Was only curious what other traders are getting with their brokers.
In fact - as I am trading mainly € accounts - there is no need to put more money at risk putting
it into another currency.

With IB I have the possibility to treat several accounts with one order at the same time.
This is called advisor account. The splitting is made first - then the execution goes to all
attached accounts.
I am listening carefully - if you have this possibility too with other brokers.

GFIs1

I have an account in euros too, with amp. Can be done with mirus as well. But it should not be a big concern for you if you operate large accounts. What you described is called block trading. I think you need to talk with brokers' account managers. There is very a responsive guy here at futures.io (formerly BMT) from Mirus, maybe you can check with him.

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Dax short 10:30 to 15:30

entry @ 9185
exit @ 9195
result -9 points

expecting a slight downmove here

GFIs1

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Dax long 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9218
exit @ 9188 (SL)
result minus 30 points

IFO day (10:00)
slight upmove expected - UP to max 9258

GFIs1

was indeed not a glorious week

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I was looking for it to break down, but I don't care so long as it starts moving.

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I was looking for it to break down, but I don't care so long as it starts moving.

It's been up for so long and so much it gathered huge momentum. It can't break down without a lot of turning. Like a Titanic.

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It's been up for so long and so much it gathered huge momentum. It can't break down without a lot of turning. Like a Titanic.

Indeed, that's why I've taken profits for today as the fast drop is still more likely to be a 'C' wave for now - but there are still some small icebergs around.

Once we've seen an outside week or month then we can start to think conditions might be significantly changing, otherwise I'm still net postive with Gann and Santa, but nevertheless with a steadily widening weather eye for cloudier and bumpier times.

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This week had 2 negative trades (-9 -30 points)

weekly result -39 points
points since week 2: 870

a strange IFO day on Friday was totally out of the normal.
This is why some desaster stop can help

GFIs1 who has not forgotten that next week US Thanksgiving will shuffle trades too

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This week had 3 positive trades

Monday +45
Tuesday +1
Friday +29

weekly result + 75 points
points since week 2: +945

GFIs

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Dax short from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 9422
exit @ 9409
result +13 points

slight correction today expected before further rallying up this month
Good Trades!

GFIs1

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This week had 3 positve trades

Monday +45
Tuesday +1
Friday +29

weekly result + 75 points
points since week 2: +945

GFIs

Well 100% record on week 48. Could you please input entry & exit times. Also why was there a trade on Tuesday instead of Wednesday? Thanks.

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bkk888 View Post
Well 100% record on week 48.

Thanks for asking:
Monday 25 Nov: 09:30 to 14:00 long (entry 9267 exit 9312)
Tuesday 26 Nov: 09:30 to 14:00 short (entry 9312 exit 9311)
Friday 29 Nov: 10:00 to 16:30 long (entry 9394 exit 9423)

There were no trades ONE day before US holiday as well on US holiday itself.
Last trade of the week was on friday.

GFIs1

PS: next trades will be announced live as normal (look today's)

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Dax short from 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 9422
exit @ 9409
result +13 points

slight correction today expected before further rallying up this month

The foreseen (slight) move was a real slip today. Up to now the range
of today is 145 points. Nearing our 150 point limit for a trade tomorrow.
If so we will not have a normal wednesday short as usual.
In any case a recommendation for a trade will be announced.

GFIs1

PS after closing bell:
Day cash range 184 points - so no normal wednesday trade

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As announced after the slip of yesterday - there is NO GFIs1 trade.

A scenario for today's Dax development could be with a good probability
1) short down to 9198
from there
2) long with goal 9303
without any time markers today

Good trades
GFIs1

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The Dax is in a very strong correction phase right now.
Today we had 9089.5 in the Future as a intermediate low.
Looks like the needed low for reversal is not yet reached:
8950 has to be hit (watching the 4h chart) to see
the next (little) reversal.
The scenario described in previous post is no longer valid:
New Alltime Highs within this month are no longer possible.

Good trades!
GFIs1

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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9141
exit @ 9124
result plus 17 points

tight stop

GFIs1

...for a 29 point day range

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This week had 2 trades

positive +13 + 17 points
weekly result + 30 points
Points since week 2: 975

GFIs1

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Do you disregard NFP completely and just trade this day as usual?

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Do you disregard NFP completely and just trade this day as usual?

My trade is always after Initial Balance (30 minutes) and exit BEFORE US numbers.
This prevents from surprises.
Of course price (after US numbers) might bring gains in new hights - BUT: not always
So being on the secure side means sometimes less plus points but for sure:
LESS minus points during hectic markets too.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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result plus 17 points

tight stop

GFIs1

...for a 29 point day range

Always remarkable, very best wishes to you from Fuertaventura

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My trade is always after Initial Balance (30 minutes) and exit BEFORE US numbers.
This prevents from surprises.
Of course price (after US numbers) might bring gains in new hights - BUT: not always
So being on the secure side means sometimes less plus points but for sure:
LESS minus points during hectic markets too.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

Right, but the volatility usually contracts before NFP is out and often run stops closely before the news.

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No trade today because of conflicting rules.

GFIs1

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Dax short 09:30 to 13:30

entry @ 9028
exit @ 9048 (Stop) stopped out on the tick
result -20 points

Thin signal - stop tight

GFIs1

PS: the missing Wednesday trade did not happen due to very low volume on open

PS II: thin day range of 34 points only...

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  #1080 (permalink)
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This week had one trade

Friday's short stopped out on tight stop - 20 points

Points since week 2: 955

GFIs1

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Looking at the Dax chart with Ichimoku there are some important points reached right now. The red and supporting Kumo (cloud) is now exhausting and forming a Dinosaur head. At the same time with today’s price red TenkanSen and blue KijunSen lines formed a cross - means a price reversal.
Green lagging ChikouSpan is moving to the blocked area of Tenkan and Kijun.



Scenario for price into January:
1) interim low is reached now - some slight upmove for year end to (blue Kijun) @ 9206 is foreseen!
2) From January price might fall and cross red Kumo until mid January at the thinnest point to come down to the same level as Chikou will have resistance @ 8796.
3) A quick reversal from there to resistance of Kumo @ 8958 area is of short interval until
4) the next down leg (this one longer) should reach first goal of @ 8435 eventually @ 8356.

The described scenario is highly probable. The picture is great for Swing traders.
Some day to day analysis is necessary to see at which point the big picture is no longer valid.
Keep alerted for the next review.

Good trades
GFIs1

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GFI
great result! keep on going, thanks for sharing

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Dax long 10:30 to 12:00 (changed!)

entry @ 9059
exit @ 9128
result +69 points

GFIs1

not bad - but left some points on the table

PS: with this trade the yearly goal of 1000 Dax points has been reached

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Bravo !

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GFIs1 who has to watch closer next time

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....

GFIs1 who has to watch closer next time

You really CAN'T have / get 'em ALL...

Nevertheless, another great GFIs1 trade to start the week with, congrats !

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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Just reviewing Monday's straight strong move up to now (15:00h): update 17:30

Day range: 181 points 197 points
Volume low: <60K 85K
Difficulties: - FED news Wednesday, - last week before Christmas

Hint for Tuesday:
NO trade (rules) as range is >150 points
highly possible chop chop before FED announcements
9206 should be reachable - maybe on Wednesday

Best to stay at the sideline and protecting capital.

GFIs1

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...

PS: with this trade the yearly goal of 1000 Dax points has been reached

Had been asked if these points are on ONE contract:

YES -
ALL results in this THREAD are on ONE contract Dax Future.

just to clarify
GFIs1

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PS: with this trade the yearly goal of 1000 Dax points has been reached

Very nice Maestro!

Travel Well
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Dax long from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9150
exit @ 9182
result plus 32 points

Today is IFO day and in the evening FED announcement.
Friday then triple witch - so some volatility expected.

GFIs1

for the brave wanting to see some more points: go long 15:30 to 17:00

PS: this was the last trade December 13 Future - next on Friday will be the March 14 Future

PS II @podski: today was one of the rare Wednesday exceptions

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Dax ______ from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @
exit @
result

Today is IFO day and in the evening FED announcement.
Friday then triple witch - so some volatility expected.

GFIs1

C'mon man .. you are just teasing. It's Wednesday ... you are always short on a Wednesday !!

:-)

p

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Hi @podski

Thanks for compliments - you are right - >90% of Wednesday trades are a short.
But there are some rare exceptions - I can tell you in 50 minutes

GFIs1

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But there are some rare exceptions - I can tell you in 50 minutes

Because Swiss-German is unwriteable?

p.s. Best Wishes for the holidays, looking forward to the March contract.

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Because Swiss-German is unwriteable?

The contrary is true - thanks for asking:
To avoid that NSA gets to much out of my emails - I am writing important things
in Swiss-German. Works great!

GFIs1

PS: Happy holidays to you!!

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Triple witch day NEW contract MARCH 14 (H)

Dax long 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 9399
exit @ 9384 stopped out
result -15 points

GFIs1

volume on March contract ok - on the Dec contract very low

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Legendary Market Wizard
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This week had three trades

two positive (69 + 32 points)
one negative (minus 15 points)
weekly result plus 86 points

Points since week 2: 1041

GFIs1

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Points since week 2: 1041

GFIs1

Great Result ...

What are your plans for next year ? Will you continue ?

Happy Christmas and best wishes for 2014 to you and all the DAX guys ...

regards

p

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Hi @podski

Thanks for your wishes and compliments.
I try to finish this year with the last trade(s) next week.
For 2014 I see no change yet - the journal has quite
some followers: THANKS all for reading and making inputs.
This motivates to be even more accurate and disciplined
in the future!

Have a great time
GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Dax short 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 9449
exit @ 9456 (tight SL)
result minus 7 pioints

looks like shorts in this over bullish move have no chance...


Last week 2013 - lower volume for sure - vola still here - new ATH today

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Dax long 9:30 to 15:00

entry @ 9574
exit @ 9579
result plus 4 points

New ATH - volume good
tight stop

GFIs1

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