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Blowing Up


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Blowing Up

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  #1 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Hello,

starting Monday I will trade futures for the first time. All that with high risk. 30 ticks and I am out of the game. I made a bet with my friend that by the last day of this year I will earn $2,000,000 (hehe, no, not one but two) starting with an account of only couple of thousand dollars. I have not heard anyone actually making it. Even my experience tells me, it is not possible, but I simply want to try, because I think it is worth trying.

In case in the future there will be posts from someone else than me, I would NOT want a negative comment. The whole thing is just an experiment and I am excited about it.

Good Luck to you all!

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  #3 (permalink)
 kbit 
Aurora, Il USA
 
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Don't consider this as negative because it would be positive for me.....Why don't you give me all the money in your account and trade sim with the same amount that you give me and if you go two weeks and don't lose it all I'll give you your money back....if you lose I keep it and at least you know I will enjoy it and you won't be giving it to some scumbag banker with his HFT.

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  #4 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
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ReaM View Post
Hello,

starting Monday I will trade futures for the first time. All that with high risk. 30 ticks and I am out of the game. I made a bet with my friend that by the last day of this year I will earn $2,000,000 (hehe, no, not one but two) starting with an account of only couple of thousand dollars. I have not heard anyone actually making it. Even my experience tells me, it is not possible, but I simply want to try, because I think it is worth trying.

In case in the future there will be posts from someone else than me, I would NOT want a negative comment. The whole thing is just an experiment and I am excited about it.

Good Luck to you all!

Monday is a Holiday.

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #5 (permalink)
 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
 
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Monday is a Holiday.

FX.

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  #6 (permalink)
 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
 
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ReaM View Post
Hello,

starting Monday I will trade futures for the first time. All that with high risk. 30 ticks and I am out of the game. I made a bet with my friend that by the last day of this year I will earn $2,000,000 (hehe, no, not one but two) starting with an account of only couple of thousand dollars. I have not heard anyone actually making it. Even my experience tells me, it is not possible, but I simply want to try, because I think it is worth trying.

In case in the future there will be posts from someone else than me, I would NOT want a negative comment. The whole thing is just an experiment and I am excited about it.

Good Luck to you all!

might be against you on this. But I have seen with my own eyes guys that are dumber than a box of hammers do what it is you are trying to do...so it is not impossible.

Best of luck to you...I hope you make it.

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  #7 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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hahaha I forgot about Rosenmontag. Are market closed on Monday? Well, starting on Tuesday is less cliche^^

And someone will have to explain me expiration, I don't want Heating Oil delivered to my door hahaha. What if on last trading day of the exp. month I have my position open?

As you see, I am prepared better than one could possible imagine

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  #8 (permalink)
 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
 
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
Monday is a Holiday.

Holy mother nature, welcome back TMFT!!

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  #9 (permalink)
 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
 
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ReaM View Post
hahaha I forgot about Rosenmontag. Are market closed on Monday? Well, starting on Tuesday is less cliche^^

And someone will have to explain me expiration, I don't want Heating Oil delivered to my door hahaha. What if on last trading day of the exp. month I have my position open?

As you see, I am prepared better than one could possible imagine

Whatever you trade, do not trade Live Hogs. If you forget the expiration date you might end up with 44,000 lbs of pigs in front of your door for each contract

Good luck!

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  #10 (permalink)
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
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ReaM View Post
hahaha I forgot about Rosenmontag. Are market closed on Monday? Well, starting on Tuesday is less cliche^^

And someone will have to explain me expiration, I don't want Heating Oil delivered to my door hahaha. What if on last trading day of the exp. month I have my position open?

As you see, I am prepared better than one could possible imagine



I hope you take the time to sign up for the "March Madness" contest, I have a feeling this thread will draw a lot of attention, could be an easy $250.00 on top of your $9000.00 per day goal.



Be assured, we're all here to help you in your "experiment."

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  #11 (permalink)
Jameson
Memphis, USA
 
 
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ReaM View Post
hahaha I forgot about Rosenmontag. Are market closed on Monday? Well, starting on Tuesday is less cliche^^

And someone will have to explain me expiration, I don't want Heating Oil delivered to my door hahaha. What if on last trading day of the exp. month I have my position open?

As you see, I am prepared better than one could possible imagine

You should get a notification in advance. If you're still in that day, and it's a physical product, hopefully your broker will just close you out. That's what mine did once when I was holding natural gas and didn't know what day it was and hadn't bothered to check my email. I think my broker makes you get out a few days before the actual last day.

But just watch the volume. That'll tell you when to go to the next month.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Fat Tails 
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At least it is an interesting idea to start an audacious journey at one of the rare occasions, when President's Day and Rosenmontag fall at the same date. You should use that at your advantage.

Good luck !


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  #13 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
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wldman View Post
FX.

He said....


ReaM View Post
Hello,

starting Monday I will trade futures ......



aligator View Post
Holy mother nature, welcome back TMFT!!

It's a one day at a time kinda thang....

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #14 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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aligator View Post
Whatever you trade, do not trade Live Hogs. If you forget the expiration date you might end up with 44,000 lbs of pigs in front of your door for each contract

Good luck!

hahaha! Thanks.


When is the best time to move on to the next month contract? Like one week before expiration? I'd love to know when the volume picks up in the new contract. I have no experience, so I really don't know the answer and google isn't much of a help either.

Thank you everyone! futures.io (formerly BMT) has a very pleasing people (unlike other forums)!

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  #15 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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Do you have your broker margin requirements all planned and mapped out? Assuming all goes well, at some points you'll have to periodically increase your number of contracts to your steadily increasing account. The curve will be limited. There won't be hardly any room for margin of error. Anyways, good luck.

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  #16 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Nice, NinjaTrader does not work. I double click the icon and it does not start. I reinstalled it twice already. It is in the Task Manager, where I can close it and launch it again.

I installed on my laptop and it works over there, but I can't trade on a laptop.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
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ReaM View Post
Nice, NinjaTrader does not work. I double click the icon and it does not start. I reinstalled it twice already. It is in the Task Manager, where I can close it and launch it again.

I installed on my laptop and it works over there, but I can't trade on a laptop.

What OS are you using?

Do you have more than one monitor?

Does it show up on your taskbar anywhere?

Gary

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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  #18 (permalink)
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
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ReaM View Post
hahaha! Thanks.


When is the best time to move on to the next month contract? Like one week before expiration? I'd love to know when the volume picks up in the new contract. I have no experience, so I really don't know the answer and google isn't much of a help either.

Thank you everyone! futures.io (formerly BMT) has a very pleasing people (unlike other forums)!

What instrument and platform are you trading/using?

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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  #19 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Win7
ZenFire
Ninja
One monitor
all instruments
no, not in quick launch bar nor in notification area (where the clock is)


Ninja does not work at all. With MutliCharts, I have a green lamp up there but the DOM says connecting to broker. It does work with a demo account from OpenEcry, but not with my live account. I am pretty sure I did everything right.

I took out my old WinXP harddrive and installed Ninja there and it works. Unbelievable how much faster winxp is.


Another beginner Q: how do I see 10 instead of only 5 levels in the DOM? On demo with another broker (Bubl for example) there were 10.

Update: Ninja DOM freaks me out. It moves all the time even though price centering is turned off. I want to click at one price and I get another. TT was much better, I wish I could afford it.
Until now, four trades, all winners, but because of either Ninja or my knowledge of ninja, I am missing 4 ticks from my profits. I'll post a summary tonight.

Update2: Ok, now I know the difference between Dynamic and Static DOM. Who on Earth would use dynamic dom?

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  #20 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Made a 150 dollar mistake (traded wrong instrument, because mousewheel apparently can switch instruments. I entered EURUSD instead of Bonds and EU went like 13 ticks against me in an instant)
Switchted to MultiCharts DT, omg I love it.

I am up however, startet with $2695, the balance now $2750. So, let's consider 2750 as my starting balance, and I am off to my journey. Pic is just to show the balance.

I calculated, I need to average 3.1% per day to reach my goal by the end of the year. That's some crazy number. But numbers only look scary. In practice it should work.

Like the myth that loosing 50% you will have to earn 100% back. If, for example, your wins equal your losses 1:1 and risking 2% per trade, you, afer having lost 50% of your account after 35 losses in a row, will only need 36 wins to get it all back. So, numbers do lie.

In practice, it is not as scary.


Balance $2830.
I notice I can't live without X_Trader, so, when I have a chance to get one, I will. Velocity offers XT for one market only. I read many times about Zenfire being better for scalping than TT, can someone offer me an advice there?

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  #21 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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I never had TT. But I moved to Zenfire from ThinkOrSwim. (now TOS is a little better). Zenfire is fast and decent. However there are freezeups once in a while on occasion. In 8 months using zenfire, I experienced personally 2 freezeups. The last one was about a month ago. It was frozen for about 40 minutes around 8am EST. As usual my broker said it was nothing to do with them, and the tradedesk guy was grumpy.

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 BeachTrader 
San Diego
 
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So what happened with the Journal? No trading yet?

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  #23 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Hello,

I will only update once a week, I don't want my ego to be fed by wins and instantly post things so I'll keep it that way. Fridays seem to be good for that. I am done for the week.

Trading has been a disaster, I am only about +$370 in plus after about 80 round turns.

The reason for bad trading is mistakes I made.

All mistakes I made:

-Traded EURUSD instead of something else...
-On 22 of February I fell asleep with a short in German Bund... (a trade which would have been a winner had I at least considered a take profit)
-On 29 of February I was not filled, I did not understand why and I clicked market sell and got filled 13 ticks away. I used to trade currencies with bucket shops and it was possible to control slippage, I have no idea how to do it with multicharts but I am never market order anything again.
-I noticed opened position which I never entered, probably accidently clicked but they were not costly.
-I did not take most of the trades I should have (but I had good profits so I did not force the trades) and I traded with half the risk I planned.
-Closed all my trades during 1st week too early.
-I have a very old AMD athlon PC, my computer crashed many times and twice with an open position.

Besides those very costly mistakes I don't remember loosing once, but those wiped pretty much all my profits. Kinda scary to wake up and see you have an open position with -$440.

To be honest, I think I can make a thousand a day if I double my risk and take all trades. I am scared to loose everything at once because of my lack of experience with the software. I am actually happy I traded the way I have, because I will not repeat any of those mistakes again (except of falling asleep haha). Maybe next week I am going full risk, we'll see. My plan is to take great risks with small account until maybe I have 100K (yes, dream on^^) and then lowering it.

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  #24 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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Before I do anything stupid, can someone explain me expiration date for Bobl?

Eurex - Fixed Income Derivatives


Last trading day is two days before tenth day of expiration month. Can't they simply write a date or something? Because I am stupid like that....2 days before thenth day..cmon!

And for T-Bond... https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/us-treasury/30-year-us-treasury-bond_contract_specifications.html#prodType=undefined


As for trading, I am not happy with it, but I am in plus (today also in plus a little over $100) it is not on the diagram yet.

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 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
 
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ReaM View Post
Before I do anything stupid, can someone explain me expiration date for Bobl?

Eurex - Fixed Income Derivatives


Last trading day is two days before tenth day of expiration month. Can't they simply write a date or something? Because I am stupid like that....2 days before thenth day..cmon!

And for T-Bond... U.S. Treasury Bond

As for trading, I am not happy with it, but I am in plus (today also in plus a little over $100) it is not on the diagram yet.


Last Trading Date, First Notice Date and Volume Crossover

For futures there is an expiry date, also called the last trade date. But you do not want to wait until this date for several reasons

-> the front month may already dry up prior to expiry
-> as a holder of a long position you may be assigned by the exchange for delivery after the first notice date

If you want to avoid that you will get a bunch of T-Notes or Bund-Schätze, you need to close out your position prior to the first notice day, if you are long. As a general rule any position should be rolled into the next liquid front month

-> prior to the last trade date
-> prior to first notice date
-> latest at volume crossover (trading volume has shifted to the new front month)


Example FGBM (BOBL Futures)

Apply these rules to BOBL futures:

-> contract expiry for FGBM 03-12 is March 8, 2012
-> first notice date for FGBM 03-12 is March 8, 2012
-> volume crossover is typically one day prior to contract expiry

This means that I expect that volume shifts to the new contract on Wednesday, March 7. On that day I would close out any position and roll it to the new front month contract, which is FGBM 06-12.


Want to Purchase T-Bonds and T-Notes? Get Delivered.

For ZB, and ZN volume has rolled on last Wednesday, February 29. That was first notice date, so if you are still holding a long position in ZB or ZN, you are running the risk of receiving a bunch of T-Bonds or T-Notes every day.

Most brokers close out the positions of their less well-informed clients, before a physical delivery takes place, which means that they will not allow you to hold any position on first notice day.

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ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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invaluable information! Thank you so much! This kind of knowledge is exactly what I lack.


Trading today was a disaster, I am still couple of dollars over hundred in plus. I did not take 4! signals and I did not get filled on one. It is amazing how many robots are trading there, you ccould even calculate how much of the orders they attribute to (I'd need to record the DOM for that and then analyze the video).

I am still afraid, which is BAAAD, because when losing trades will come they will finish me. On the other hand, I had 7 or so trades today and all of which were loosers but I handled them nicely.

+100 only today :/

Yesterday was also a funny day, couple of support lines failed and you saw people trying to get out later in the day which made price move nowhere (each time they were offered a good price, they would instantly take it and price did not move far because of that)

If anyone interested in how I trade, I won't be able to help^^, it is 100% discretionary, I have no rules, no specific money management rules, no exit/entry rules, no specific instrument. The main thing I use is price (the movement of price in the DOM), I don't use indicators or anything like that.

No, I did not trade T-Bond, because it's 31,25 dollar per tick, but I will.

First time I sim traded futures was with Open Ecry Demo, this is where you get instant fills without queue. I made each day $500+ trading one contract, because I basically was two ticks in plus on each trade compared to live trading (ninja does take queue into account). This clearly shows markets are not random and if given good execution and low commissions you can actually do pretty well. So those with HFT tech can take a huge advantage on getting the price near market. I wish I could programm things^^. If I weren't scared, I think I can make more ticks per day live with one contract than the daily range, but I am afraid^^. I might be wrong, but this is all a test. Even if I don't take the trade, my initial thought is still correct about what market is going to do, and if I am not correct, then it is not that often and a loss is nothing bad.

Sorry everyone I modified this post 20 times.... I wish I could modify the very first post, but I can't.

Danke, nochmal!

I need to double my account each month, otherwise I am not gonna make it.

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  #27 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
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https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--ZWUdG2csNo/TyLgjCw6i4I/AAAAAAAAArg/BKh38N5ynDE/s1600/bonds89.PNG

This is what a bond pit looks like? There were no charts up somewhere there in the late 80s right? What do you see? You see price for sure, but do you see bids and offers like in the dom or you just have to find someone to trade with?

Today +70 as of now... But again I did not take two trades. I think the loser mentality I have right now will only go away if I actually loose once (a loss that will hurt me), so I hope to catch a loss.

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  #28 (permalink)
 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
 
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ReaM View Post
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--ZWUdG2csNo/TyLgjCw6i4I/AAAAAAAAArg/BKh38N5ynDE/s1600/bonds89.PNG

This is what a bond pit looks like? There were no charts up somewhere there in the late 80s right? What do you see? You see price for sure, but do you see bids and offers like in the dom or you just have to find someone to trade with?

Today +70 as of now... But again I did not take two trades. I think the loser mentality I have right now will only go away if I actually loose once (a loss that will hurt me), so I hope to catch a loss.

You are kidding, right? You "see" "paper" too and all kinds of other information not seen or only guessed at by a computer screen.

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  #29 (permalink)
ReaM
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That's cool!

But me trading in the pit would require me being in several places at the same time so I can cover all instruments... Anyone knows if cloning myself is legal in China?

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 wldman 
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you are limited somewhat in the ability to trade different products from a trading crowd. The question was do you see bids and offers and the answer is YES. You probably have an idea about the enthusiasm at a specific price and which orders are week and which are firm. You probably have an idea about who the contra might be and their approximate cost basis. Who from a group or company is representing the bid or offer also says a great deal.

BTW, with the exception of the years at CBOE, where you make a market in numerous equities in a specific trading crowd, I've made a career trading ONE product at a time. That might be an interesting question for the forum...how many products do you trade? I'd bet that new traders trade the greatest number of products and that the wise old sages trade one or two products.

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  #31 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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I trade those that are at important levels and that's not every day the case for each instrument.
I would agree, concentrating on one is best.

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  #32 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 97 given, 110 received

Somebody slap me for not taking 5 trades this early morning I simply can't "let it go"


Thanks Fat Tails for the info, yesterday I could observe a clear volume change from March to June and today, in March contract there are prices with empty cells in the DOM.

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  #33 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 97 given, 110 received

Can somebody slap me? Please! ^^

Well, today is the ladies day. We men have to give some of our profits to them.

I am a little less than 10 dollars in minus for today after four losses and one win. Computer died on me again during that win, I had to log in from a laptop and cut the win two ticks short, but that's alright.

I did not take I think 7 trades all of which would end up being wins, on some I was simply late (saw the opportunity too late, because I was doing some other stuff), some I did not take I thought they were dangerous trades, but this was not my plan (which was to take every trade).

I came across the following post from Mike and you can learn more from it than from most books. Exits define what you have in the end of the day:


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  #34 (permalink)
ReaM
Los Angeles
 
 
Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 97 given, 110 received

Done for the week.

Very bad trading, far from what I planned. I entered a perfect trade and some nerve impulse had to tell me to chicken out only to see price move my way 6 ticks almost in an instant :/

Because of heavy news today, I only saw two trades, one of which I ruined. I don't like trading Friday afternoon, except there is some trend going on (now is quiet) and most instruments had their daily move already.


Yesterday +$15
Today + $120

So far, no loosing days since I started... That will change.

This weeks problems were all psychological. The only technical I had was my AMD Athlon 5000+ computer turning off on me during trades.
I don't know how many psychologists will read it, but if it is of any use:
-I am afraid to lose money, even though I meditate all day that money does not matter. I don't panic when a trade goes against me (I think I handle looser well), but I am more inclined to close profits early.
-When I am in plus for the day, I am more reluctant to taking more trades. Keep what you got bias^^.
-I have this other bias where I always think: "Had I not had those stupid mistkes during the first week, I would be more than twice as far ahead with my performance" and that thought holds me back. I lost a lot of money because of switching instruments and trading wrong stuff and because I fell asleep. Any remedies?
-I close winners early and I can't help it.
-I don't take all trades. This is the most serious issue.

One of my recent thoughts about: " You can't go broke taking profits": It sure does apply to systematic traders, but not to discretionary trading. While a discretionary one might go broke taking profits too early (like it could be the case with me because I close profits early and losses are already watching me...), a systematic assures himself going broke. A discretionary trader does not have to enter risky trades, while systematic has to take his signals. Since when that phrase came to existence not many systems existed, I think there is nothing wrong with it.

Have a great weekend everyone.

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  #35 (permalink)
ReaM
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Posts: 132 since Mar 2011
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How do I modify the pending order qty in X_trader?

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