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Ctrl-Alt-Del Reboot Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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A fresh start. More to come.

Goal of this thread is to master Perry's newest paradigm after February 25th presentation to confirm personal fit (or not).
Develop and FOLLOW new money management rules (to include only trading sim until consistently profitable).
Renew focus, rules, trading plan, screens, method, tracking, analysis, bookkeeping, money management, and trading mindset.
Share journey, preparation, experience. Warts and all.
Moving forward.
Simplify. One method. One contract. One platform. One solution.

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  #3 (permalink)
 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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First and foremost it's about Psychology. We can learn methods, write rules, prepare a trading plan, create a great trading environment, and set oneself up for success. Since we were probably already successful in other endeavors, it's just another plan to succeed. Plan, execute, succeed.


Nope.
  • I'm use to managing outcomes over time, and loosely, trading is feedback loop is much quicker and unforgiving.
  • I'm use to be being in the Project Director/Manager role. The market is the boss, not me.
  • I'm use to being the decision-maker, trading should fit. Nope, much more personal.
  • I'm use to being right most of the time. Blown up a couple accounts being right in the markets.
  • I'm use to other people sweating the details. My trading analysis has fallen by the wayside.
  • I'm use to gathering lots of info and viewpoints. That can easily distract in trading - too many methods, indicators, charts, pretty colors, moving squiglies.
  • I'm use to success and acting with confidence. Blowing an account up can shake that belief in one self.
Solutions.
  • Find/develop a method that is a natural fit. Don't force it. In trying new methods, stick with it, analyze trades, keep an honest journal including feelings. Move on if called for, but don't mix and match.
  • Keep it simple. One method. One contract. Half a day schedule. Less than 5 trades. Respect and follow Money Management plan, even when I "know" better!
  • Sim is for dummies. Bull#$%&! If I cannot exercise discipline to trade in sim as I would with real money, guess what, I'm not going to be disciplined in my real account. And have not been.
  • Turn off the voices - no trade rooms, read less longer term financial news. Focus on immediate playing field, make my own decisions and knowing why, analyze those decisions.
  • Learn from the masters, but do not overload. Easy to overload on this great Forum. I always come back to Trading in the Zone. And I am committing to Perry's Paradigm as it looks to fit my style. And Perry's advice has been better than any I've ever paid for. Emulate a successful trader.

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 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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First goal is to live to trade another day. Second goal is to trade profitably.

Sounds too simple, but have never achieved either goal, for any length of time.

In the past, I've used sizing calculators, Risk/Reward/Ruin analysis, trade rules, daily rules, weekly rules, percentage stops, dollar stops, etc. And I may again. But this time I'm going to make it much simpler.

Sim trading -
  1. Sim a $5,000 account using one contract
  2. Meet and maintain 90% threshold of following setup rules - entry and exit
  3. Reach $10,000, use two contracts
  4. Meet and maintain 90% threshold of following setup rules - entry and exit
  5. Reach $20,000, meeting and maintaining 90% threshold, then Go Live
Live trading -
  1. Commit $10,000 to Live account, trading one contract
  2. Meet and maintain 90% threshold of following setup rules - entry and exit
  3. Reach $20,000, trade two contracts
  4. Meet and maintain 90% threshold of following setup rules - entry and exit
  5. Reach $40,000, meeting and maintaining 90% threshold, bank $20,000
  6. Rinse and repeat
Reset triggers - live trading, return to sim
  1. A 20% drawdown of current capital
  2. A drop below 80% of meeting and maintaining the 90% threshold of following entry and exit setup rules
  3. Return to Sim trading Step 1
So this time Money Management is about being true to my setups, my analysis, my progress, and a tough but realistic reset button.

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 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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Last nite I downloaded Perry's templates and indicators. Today I watched.

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 Tiberius 
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rpm123 View Post
Last nite I downloaded Perry's templates and indicators. Today I watched.


Patrick what do the triangles represent on your charts?
Thanks........................ sorry about the Pack.

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 rpm123 
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Tiberius View Post
Patrick what do the triangles represent on your charts?
Thanks........................ sorry about the Pack.

Howdy @Tiberius

Those are the fleeting triangles that show up when everything lines up. @osir noted in Perry's new thread that a setting to True on 5.1 Show History Status on the MTFAnalizer makes them less fleeting. I'm going to watch the video again to verify and see what else makes them tick. There is a lot to take in on Perry's refinements. He colors the bars now which might interest you.

The Pack finished poorly, that's for sure. Better to go in hungry and without a bye on your last game. Next year. We've got a great bench.

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 rpm123 
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Off to a good start, success-wise, but did not follow rules completely.

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kkjalan
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rpm123 View Post
Off to a good start, success-wise, but did not follow rules completely.

What the indicators u are using?? also what's ur trading platform?

sorry for my childish questions but I am a Novice in the market? pls bear with me!!

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 rpm123 
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kkjalan View Post
What the indicators u are using?? also what's ur trading platform?

sorry for my childish questions but I am a Novice in the market? pls bear with me!!

You came to the right forum. Don't trade real money til you find what works for you. I've been distracted with alot of different systems, methods, platforms, etc. I'm working with Perry's new system, Ninja, and sim until I can learn to follow rules. Watch his seminar from last week and his new thread. And you can't go wrong going thru his old work either. Best of luck.

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 rpm123 
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I've currently got all 3 of Perry's new templates up - 5 range, 3 minute, 1 minute. I made some good trades today, and they were off the 1 minute chart. Since the Perrydigm (has no one really coined that word yet?) has multi time frame indicators on it, I'm getting a bigger picture. I'm still studying how that all works, and when I internalize it, I'll share here.

I first learned on time charts, but when I saw range charts for the first time, I fell in love with them. Patterns were smoother, they did not stretch out forever when price action was slow, they seem to make a lot of sense. But Perry mentioned he trades time charts so I am reevaluating. Remember, my goal for this journal is to simplify, less distractions, follow one method, one chart, and emulate a master. And tame my inner psychology in the meantime.

The one thing I really like about a minute bar is you can see those long probing tails more easily, testing the waters, or exhaustion of a move. Maybe real price action is in the time bars, but patterns are purer in the range bars.

Even though I traded the 1 minute today, I still found the 5 range chart helpful to help "see" the market more wholly. I use to have a dozen charts up, Tick, ADV/DECL, 89 tick, 1,3,15,30,60,and Daily charts. Too distracting, if your goal is to grab 4 ticks here and there. I've looked at LineBreak, renko, and manufactured bars. Having just these three charts up may even be too distracting. But I've taken the first big step in simplifying.

I've also gotten rid of Tradestation and the methods and charts I had on there. Committing to Ninja and the Perrydigm.

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 rpm123 
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Overtraded. 7 instead of 4 or 5. Impatient waiting for non-flat behavior. Followed MA rules, good %, but just barely profitable. Getting in late, need to trust system more. Need to wait for flats to resolve themselves. Was also tired, need to reinstitute personal checklist.

Sunday Homework. Watch Seminar again. Replay. Improve Analysis Spreadsheet. Write Morning Routine,

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 rpm123 
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There are way too many options out there - with a lot of pluses and minuses and personal preferences. My problem was keeping multiple platforms running, with multiple methods and distracting my self to the point of not knowing why I was doing trades, when I was right and when I was wrong.

Given the fine work on this forum, and it's a pretty Ninja centric forum, I've decided to give up Tradestation. I went thru my workspaces on Tradestation and was able to replicate most everything on Ninja, in case I need to look at them again. I've paid for Ninja at least once, thru leasing costs, so I plan to purchase after one more quarter lease, which I will not even start until after I have made my sim goal. Sim for free with Ninja before committing money.

I've tried several brokers too. I can luckily say that I have not had customer service or accounting issues with any of them. And I have found them almost all of them negotiable in their pricing structure. Data problems are harder to measure, and when I knew I had them, it was usually around news events. And a slowing machine, because of two many platforms, and other programs running at once. I'm using AMP with the CQG feed and have found it to be trouble free. Some of the more technical people on the forum can offer tests and detail. I need to get my trading right before I sweat those details.

I have a laptop with an attached 21" second screen. Which makes a lot more sense as I pare down my number of charts. I'm really enjoying having fewer, bigger, charts. It has a dual core 2 GHz processor, 3 GB ram, and I have the turbo internet pipe from Time Warner. 3 years old, nothing that special. Windows 7 Home Premium OS. I was all set to buy a new machine for Christmas but noticed my McAfee was taking up more processor speed than even the platforms. I installed the free AVG anti-virus, the regular Windows firewall, and got rid of McAfee. I've double the speed on everything. And no longer experiencing lock-ups.

So I guess my takeaways for this rambling is:
1) Just stick with one platform and broker. Switching about did not solve my poor trading habits.
2) If you like Ninja, it's been said on the board alot, I wished I stopped leasing sooner, and had just bought it.
3) Negotiate your rates with your chosen broker. Price by your chosen instrument(s) as well.
4) Clean off (dedicate) your trading machine. It will run faster, not lock up, and offer fewer distractions.

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 rpm123 
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I've identified my two worst behaviors in getting ready to trade in the morning.
1) I turn on the computer and I jump right in before completely waking up. (Don't want to miss anything)
2) I don't do a self assessment of how I feel, if I'm tired from not enuff sleep, and if I'm ready to face the world (even though I'm working in my office, alone, at home, I am literally competing and playing on the world stage the moment I decide to take a trade. Always remember that.)

I used to have a long checklist. It was so long, I ignored it. Here is my shorter one.

Morning Checklist
1) Boot up, make coffee, scan emails, wake up, start checklist.
2) Update h/l/o/c for daily pivots in Ninja Historical Data Manager - EUR / USD
3) Check news events for the day - 2012 Economic Calendar
4) Note first hour high and low of the day, and current high and low so far in the day
5) Ask self - am I ready to take on the world's best traders. If not, take a walk around the block, and ask again.
6) Note time, recent market action, and look for a setup. Say out loud what I am looking for. And wait for it.

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 rpm123 
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6E - cuz everybody's doing it.

My goal is master, internalize, and profit with the PerryDigm. Most of his examples in the thread are 6E, so best to learn with it.

What I like about the 6E - it moves, it has a higher tick value than others I've tried, it's not crazy volatile, it has a good amount of activity and volume from 7 to 11 am CST, it seems to fit and getting more comfortable with it.

What I don't like about the 6E - just getting use to .0001 is a tick worth $12.50, that it opens when I'm asleep, that it has a higher commission than some, will try to negotiate when I go live again.

I'm early in the courtship with this instrument, getting to know how it behaves on a normal day, how it likes to open and close, how it reacts around news, and which news, it's average true range, it's slippage. Know your instrument well before trading live.

Other instruments I've tried - started with ES, doesn't everyone, so heavily traded that I got tired of it sitting on my price, and not taking it, even after 10,000 sales. Went to NQ - seemed too erratic for me. Spent alot of time with YM - good volume, but much thinner than the first two, it moves quite well, but slippage is bigger, it will jump 3 or 4 ticks sometimes in slippage, stopping you out of a good trade. CL - very volatile, traded a few times, suicide is not painless, this is an experienced trader's instrument.

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 rpm123 
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Modified the one I've posted so far. To make it simple, I am using an excel export of the Account Performance Trades Tab, with a few added columns. I used to look at the Summary tab, but as I study it more, it's not giving me the granularity I need for my trade analysis.

I am tracking (and trading) in ticks. My hope is that tracking ticks instead of $, I'll remove some emotion and head games. I've added a few analysis columns I'll tack on at the end of the day, after the export. They include the Time in Trade, the $ p&l, the day, what % profitable, how often I followed the rules, the number of MA's in favor when I traded, and Comments. (Because I had some commission buried in the software, I've deleted for these first two days - commission, MAE, MFE, and ETD. They should be fine next week.) I'm tracking results without commission, to better track ticks.

In first analysis of these two days I realized the number of MA's was a recurring comment. So it has it's own column. I've noticed that my comments are kind of lame. I need to improve self-analysis if I am going to improve. I noticed that I am late to enter most all of the time. Which tells me I am not trusting the Perrydigm yet because I have not internalized it yet. So back to the seminars, the threads, and the charts.

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 rpm123 
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As confusing as a PerryDigm chart can look at first glance, it' really just a layering of Moving Averages including

1) the current chart's timeframe, and
2) in a a larger time frame and
3) divergences of timeframes illustrated in candle coloring.
4) With slopes of those MA's tracked to quantify the visual.
5) And an MTF analyzer that produces arrows at the most probable time to trades.
6) And finally Rays generated off fractal pivot points offering support and resistance projections.

The 1 minute chart is best to trade from to get those 4 tick wins (imho)
the Moving Averages, in order are:
PPMA 1 SMA - Blue dotted, typical - Real time price action trend inside a trend
PPMA 3 SMA - Orange solid, typical - Real time price action trend inside a tend
MDA 13 EMA - Green/Red as spec'd - Lagging but showing the bigger trend
MDA 20, 50, 100, 200 SMA - Gray/Black, Pink/Magenta, Dodger/Blue, Red/Red

Try to get the first candle that meets the following criteria and whose base is touching the 13 ema or is within one tick:

If the 1, 3, 13, 20 are pointing the same way, the candle is colored in your direction, the Slope info supports, and the Triangles appear, you have a good trade. If the 50, 100, and 200 agree too - load the boat for longer runs.

The 5 Range Chart contains a similar cast of characters, but let's you visually see rangebound chop, and a longer part of the day.

Work in progress - going to bed.

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 rpm123 
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Over traded but on purpose. Read up alot over the weekend and wanted to try some things. Used the 1 minute chart again primarily. Tried these things:

1) Using the triangle as the primary signal, not great, going to analyze the day on that , maybe play with the settings

2) Use to always add to losers. tried to add to winners. the ATM is kind of tricky, if you use the same ATM strategy, instead of putting a new trade in, it adds to the trade, shortening your expected targets and stops. Tried naming a new ATM with the same parameters, and it places a new tradeset. But I am breaking my primary rule of just trading 1 contract to understand this methodology. Will go back to one. But this is a good thing for the toolkit for when I am trading two. It seems to make more sense than going in with two with the second one as a runner. Or there is probably room for both strategies.

Seemed like I was following rules a high % but did not produce the ticks. One problem was the ATM experiment. Another was really nailing down my rules - am I really following them?

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 NJAMC 
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rpm123 View Post
Off to a good start, success-wise, but did not follow rules completely.

Hi @rpm123,

Looks like a great thread. Is it possible to mark your entry/exit locations on your charts? Tought to follow with the spreadsheet, visual works better for me...

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 rpm123 
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NJAMC View Post
Hi @ rpm123,

Looks like a great thread. Is it possible to mark your entry/exit locations on your charts? Tough to follow with the spreadsheet, visual works better for me...

Yup, I realized I did not do that on the first post and have been since.

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 NJAMC 
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rpm123 View Post
The 1 minute chart is best to trade from to get those 4 tick wins (imho)
the Moving Averages, in order are:
PPMA 1 SMA - Blue dotted, typical - Real time price action trend inside a trend
PPMA 3 SMA - Orange solid, typical - Real time price action trend inside a tend
MDA 13 EMA - Green/Red as spec'd - Lagging but showing the bigger trend
MDA 20, 50, 100, 200 SMA - Gray/Black, Pink/Magenta, Dodger/Blue, Red/Red

Try to get the first candle that meets the following criteria and whose base is touching the 13 ema or is within one tick:

Work in progress - going to bed.

I think I remember Perry doing away with the 13 and using an 8 (EMA or SMA, not sure which)?

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 rpm123 
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NJAMC View Post
I think I remember Perry doing away with the 13 and using an 8 (EMA or SMA, not sure which)?

He has a variety pack this go round. The 8EMA is on the 5 range chart, but he has 13EMAs on the 1 and 3 minute chart. I'm still reviewing, and refining an understanding of his rules.

For instance, the triangles created by the MTF Analyzer are suppose to be a final confirmation, but they seem to only work out about 10% of the time, on really good trends. I'm trying to determine if some of the improvements really are improvements. I'm using his templates and settings, have not played with variables yet.

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 rpm123 
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Did not pass my morning checklist. Went back to bed. No trades.

FOLLOWED MY RULES 100%

YAY!

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 NJAMC 
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rpm123 View Post
He has a variety pack this go round. The 8EMA is on the 5 range chart, but he has 13EMAs on the 1 and 3 minute chart. I'm still reviewing, and refining an understanding of his rules.

For instance, the triangles created by the MTF Analyzer are suppose to be a final confirmation, but they seem to only work out about 10% of the time, on really good trends. I'm trying to determine if some of the improvements really are improvements. I'm using his templates and settings, have not played with variables yet.

Thanks,

I am having trouble pulling together all the current rules. I have started a Wiki that hopefully the community will populate with me with the rules as we know them. This was new to me as I saw only the 5 Range template, the rules as still not entirely clear to me. Here is the Wiki if you want to dump your knowledge in:
Perry's Method Part II - Big Mike's Trading Forum

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 rpm123 
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One bone headed sell when I meant to press buy. Moved stop twice to stay in game today, something I do not want to do. But main trend supported decision, not just emotion. 4 stop with 4 target seemed silly today with the big moves, but trying to get this down. Still entering late, upon looking back at charts, but at the time of entry, it is not always as apparent. The MTF triangles were helpful today with the bigger moves, but see them print so often in chop, I'm still wary of them. I am striving for simplicity, and there seems to be more distracting elements to the new PerryDigm. Or I'm just still learning it.

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 rpm123 
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One boneheaded move - forgot to turn on ATM on first trade and entered on a forgotten stop loss.

Spent some time on Perry's thread asking about MTF triangles, they seem to be leading me astray.

Going to look at original PerryDigm over the weekend. It may just be me, but the old one seemed clearer. Or else I just need to develop and follow a better ruleset.

Getting in too early and it turning, or conversely, too late, and missing the run, are my two big problems.

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 rpm123 
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After @perryg cleared a few things up for me on his thread, regarding the MTF Analysis, multiple charts, and some settings; I spent the day building some new charts and doing some "fun" trading in my spare time. Had a plus $800 day. But not really following the charts. Or the rules.

I'll post today's trade activity this weekend, with some new analysis I have planned. I was tracking Moving Averages, but just on one chart. I'm going to add some other datapoints from other charts too. I have my plan, but I think it will we interesting to see how the day's trading matched up, or did not, with my new analysis plan.

The hope is the new analysis plan leads to a new rule plan to a growing confidence in the PerryDigm.

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 rpm123 
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In working thru Perry's latest thread it was pointed out that even though all the multi-timeframe indicators are on a chart, multiple charts are still needed. Especially with time charts, as opposed to range charts. This was kind of a surprise to me, but it takes me back to my old way of trading. Find the trade on the larger time frame, enter on the smaller time frame.

Perry supplied 1 and 3 minute templates, and pdf's to build bigger templates. I've built the 5 and 15 minute templates and will be trying them all out on Monday. The next post though will be the results of an analysis of my Friday trades, that I was taking only half paying attention, while I built charts. My best day so far. But I want to look at them with a new eye on all 4 charts, and see what I can learn.

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 rpm123 
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Reworked my spreadsheet to include number of MA's in favor on each of the 1, 3, 5, 15 minute timeframes. Having multiple timeframes in your favor does make a serious difference. Duh! But PROVING IT TO YOURSELF is the KEY. INTERNALIZING.

Much of the trading was 'play' trading while I was working on charts. So even though I made $900, I was not following the rules. Adding to losers, trading in flat zones, etc, etc.

But this was a DEFINING MOMENT upon review, to see how much larger timeframes keep you in the game.

But it may be too many charts to watch. Or I really need to determine which chart(s) elements to watch.

Tackle that tomorrow. What makes the most difference? Need to watch the slope indicators better too.

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 rpm123 
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Here are the charts. Need to do the analysis yet. Plus $500 day. Broke the rule of trading too much on purpose, learning these multiple charts open at one time. And added to winners as well. But watching the 5 minute was keeping me in trades and getting me in better trades, on the 3 and 1 with everything lining up. I may finally be breaking my countertrend habit, and guessing the bottom/top habit. Much better odds that a trend will continue than it will reverse. The 5 range is not in the picture, but I am keeping that one open now too, because generally the whole day shows on it, for the bigger picture. Here's the charts, will see if I can stay up and do the analysis.

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 rpm123 
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Long downdraft in the early morning. Saw it bottoming but first 3 trades were when it was really still too flat. The next 7 trades were in the right direction, but was overloading, bad sim habit, so did not count those as good. The next 8 trades were good, with the trend, and 6 profitable. The last 5 I lost discipline again.

Concerning the 8 trades that were good. Following MA's and perry's system seems to work best when capturing momentum of a good trend. Not catching it early enuff can stop you out. I'm still primarily going for 4 tick with a 4 tick stop. On these trades, the 1 minute can be a bit herky jerky, but having those MA's in your favor is still critical. Especially on a big rebound day like this, the HTF MA's are going to take a long time to catch up.

Even with reviewing my trades, I am not sure of my thought process of which chart to look at, which to confirm, which to trade, which to exit. Too many charts. And very busy charts. I was hoping that the Multiple Time Frame methodology was going to get it down to a chart or two. Too many charts distract and I start 'simming' instead of trading.

I still like the looks of the 5 range chart, I added that to the spreadsheet. It supports the good trades too.

I don't feel like I am getting closer to mastering this system, (I know, 2 whole weeks, but played with over a year) and the new Perry thread seems to have quieted down quite a bit from his last thread. I'm going to go thru the old ones again. Maybe the simpler solutions are the better, at least for me.

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 Cloudy 
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Hi rpm123. Nice journal setup and goals. I noticed you've been trying to get some solid organized rules around Perry's method continuation? You seem to be doing fine on small scalp trades. I've been trying to do less scalping on my own but will revert to it if I'm stuck in a range, or I'm not up to holding out of longer trades than I'm used to for the day. On Perry's method refit, I kind of gave up trying to get the settings "right" on 3min. I found I liked the 5 range settings of the ppma's and the MTF set from Perry's 5 range template, on most other time frames works fine for me because the MTF seems to color fade the bars , flat(faded) vs. trend type (solid) more to my liking. So when there's a "good" Perry setup ( and I'm not trying to scalp for just 4 ticks) , I enter on the candle, then adjust my stop up hopefully eventually to BE+1, then see if the ATR band 1st target and/or 2nd target is reached. I try not to take a trade on "faded" bars unless I'm trying to scalp highs and lows in a tight channel on purpose or unless there's a setup for a countertrend scalp trade , like off a bollinger band failure or a price action breakout-pullback type of setup. I've been using mostly the one time frame chart. I have a 1131 tick chart on the side to check for CJ Booth type of setups, but have found I hardly glance at it except to see a bigger picture of overall price. I would tend to agree I'm not sure Perry's method continuation, (or Perry V2 as I like to refer it) covers all aspects of a trading methodology. There was not much talk about stop or trade management. The "matrices" settings are confusing and don't seem completely tested. I would hope Perry will eventually post templates for most any time frame. However I found the MTF and ppma's great entry tools in combination with my overall trading style which involves some Brook's price action, and using s/r levels(fat tails vwap) with YTC pat or PATs trading ideas:
Hope this helps as another perspective.

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 rpm123 
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Cloudy View Post
Hi rpm123. Nice journal setup and goals. I noticed you've been trying to get some solid organized rules around Perry's method continuation? You seem to be doing fine on small scalp trades. I've been trying to do less scalping on my own but will revert to it if I'm stuck in a range, or I'm not up to holding out of longer trades than I'm used to for the day. On Perry's method refit, I kind of gave up trying to get the settings "right" on 3min. I found I liked the 5 range settings of the ppma's and the MTF set from Perry's 5 range template, on most other time frames works fine for me because the MTF seems to color fade the bars , flat(faded) vs. trend type (solid) more to my liking. So when there's a "good" Perry setup ( and I'm not trying to scalp for just 4 ticks) , I enter on the candle, then adjust my stop up hopefully eventually to BE+1, then see if the ATR band 1st target and/or 2nd target is reached. I try not to take a trade on "faded" bars unless I'm trying to scalp highs and lows in a tight channel on purpose or unless there's a setup for a countertrend scalp trade , like off a bollinger band failure or a price action breakout-pullback type of setup. I've been using mostly the one time frame chart. I have a 1131 tick chart on the side to check for CJ Booth type of setups, but have found I hardly glance at it except to see a bigger picture of overall price. I would tend to agree I'm not sure Perry's method continuation, (or Perry V2 as I like to refer it) covers all aspects of a trading methodology. There was not much talk about stop or trade management. The "matrices" settings are confusing and don't seem completely tested. I would hope Perry will eventually post templates for most any time frame. However I found the MTF and ppma's great entry tools in combination with my overall trading style which involves some Brook's price action, and using s/r levels(fat tails vwap) with YTC pat or PATs trading ideas:
Hope this helps as another perspective.

@Cloudy
Awesome. Thanks for the tips. Yeah, I'm only trying to scalp right now to see if I "see" perrys setups, which I am struggling with a bit. Especially moving from range to minute. Your comments were spot on and I'll spend some time following them up in the near future. Not ready to bail yet on perry. Bailing too quickly has been one of my faults. thanks again.

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 rpm123 
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Kept it down to 6 trades. Good.
4 out of 6 profitable. Good
Followed rules once. Not so good.
I am re-liking the 5 range again. Like seeing the big picture there.
The 1 minute for entry.
and the 3 minute for confirmation.
No 5 and 15 tomorrow. Take it on down to 3 charts.

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 rpm123 
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It was 75 degrees in Green Bay yesterday, and 65 today. In the middle of March. No trades. Say no more.

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 rpm123 
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Another beautiful day. Ended early. Up $562. Beautiful trend, will work to milk them more. Right now practicing my entries. Connection problem, can't do a full analysis right now, but found great perry setups.

Also put up an experimental chart I used to trade, to see how it compares. Had a previous love affair with anaSupertrend by @Fat Tails, and MACDBBv4 from @ TheWizard (which @ monpere mentioned in the "if you could only live with one indicator" thread, so looking at it, plus I always liked the way @ Tiberius used the ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounter_v7 to color the bars, and finally added the ATRTarget I only just saw on perrys new 5 range chart.

I need to do more analysis comparing the new chart to perrys charts. I'm getting a bit more use to perrys v2, the minute and 3 minute are helping me with entries. The 5 and 15 were not helping me stay in the trade, so went to his 5 range for that. Plus this new one at 4 range to help me "see".

Having a big St Paddy's day party tomorrow, so maybe Sunday, I'll get back to analysis. We're halfway thru the month contest, so I want to take a larger view. I know one thing - I will be keeping up a journal AFTER the contest too. The next two weeks I want get better on entries, but also stay in longer than 4 ticks, trailing.

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 NJAMC 
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rpm123 View Post
Another beautiful day. Ended early. Up $562. Beautiful trend, will work to milk them more. Right now practicing my entries. Connection problem, can't do a full analysis right now, but found great perry setups.

Also put up an experimental chart I used to trade, to see how it compares. Had a previous love affair with anaSupertrend by @FatTails, and MACDBBv4 from @ TheWizard (which @ monpere mentioned in the "if you could only live with one indicator" thread, so looking at it, plus I always liked the way @ Tiberius used the ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounter_v7 to color the bars, and finally added the ATRTarget I only just saw on perrys new 5 range chart.

I need to do more analysis comparing the new chart to perrys charts. I'm getting a bit more use to perrys v2, the minute and 3 minute are helping me with entries. The 5 and 15 were not helping me stay in the trade, so went to his 5 range for that. Plus this new one at 4 range to help me "see".

Having a big St Paddy's day party tomorrow, so maybe Sunday, I'll get back to analysis. We're halfway thru the month contest, so I want to take a larger view. I know one thing - I will be keeping up a journal AFTER the contest too. The next two weeks I want get better on entries, but also stay in longer than 4 ticks, trailing.

Congrats on the profitable day! (Did you start drinking early? )

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 Richie Z 
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I'm enjoying reading your journal. I too am using 5R (i go to 6R when it is very fast and 4R when it is slower), 1M and 3M, with a "rotator" in behind that i have stripped down and can do a quick check of bigger time frames. Like you, i especially like how the 5R moves, but i have seen that having the 1-3-5-15m up or 1-3-10M helps me see the picture and longer setup too. So--like you, i'm in the throes of adopting/adapting the new perrydigm--i liked the old 5R/12R all on one chart--so i'm still trying to sort it all out too. I am appreciating the fade colours--tells me when i'm being stupid by jumping in too early--i need to learn that there's plenty of time to hop on the train. Enjoy St. Paddy's . . . .

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 rpm123 
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Flat morning, stepped away for breakfast, made it back to catch the tail end of that nice run. Will post results later. But re-tooling is on my mind. My winning trades are based on just a few of the things on the chart. I'm going back to EP (Early Perry) for one-chart trading again. We'll see if my instincts to change are correct.

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 rpm123 
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Even though I had a great day Friday, and decent learning days before that, I see myself wandering to some old charts, old habits, and not achieving comfort with the PerryDigm 2. No disrespect, but I am finding the charts too busy, something I have tended towards before, and need to simplify my visual. I also have had trouble returning to minute charts and needing to watch multiple charts. It seems like with multiple charts you can always find a reason to not enter a trade.

But I realize I do not want to throw in the towel on the PerryDigm. It's solid logic, it's just getting indicators and charts that speak to you. Or more properly let you "see' the market. So my goal is to revisit PerryDigm 1 and rebuild my understanding and rebuild my charts to my liking, and hopefully the success that will follow.

A lot of different participants of the PerryDigm threads have already done this, tweaking this and that, for better and worse results. There are a few standout contributors that I hope to offer the sincerest form of flattery and steal all their good ideas.

Goals for the charts:
I want to try and build a single chart to watch and trade from. Let it have the Multiple time frames if possible.
I want to place the valuable but "busy" indicators in other panels.
I want unmistakable visual and aural clues and alerts.

Trading Goals: (just this 2 week journal has shone the light on many foibles).
I want to develop great entry rules, stick with it rules, and exit rules.
Pick charttrader, atm, and or dom trading once and for all.
I want to revisit my money management strategy.
I want to revisit my accidental trading.
I want too revisit my bored trading - patience.

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 rpm123 
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A Quick Summary of the first 11 trading days of March.

% Profitable 68%
% Followed Rules 40%
% MAE of 4 ticks violated 19%
P/L (SIM) $2,834.50

Happy that I am profitable of course. Fell off the Rules wagon way too often. But am learning respect for the PerryDigm.

Let's see if a simpler chart and simpler rules can keep me profitable and within my own boundaries.

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 rpm123 
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I spent the day building a new chart and watching. No real trading.

This is the old Perry System variation (shout out to @madelynnjohnson) plus
an sma40 (shout out to @msull35706) plus
Jeff'sADX and DMplus (same shout out, not to mention @Jeff Castille) plus
MACDBB (shout out to @monpere who said in a thread it was his desert island indy)

Going to play with all this a while, see if the extra confirming indy's help.
Do some trading tomorrow.

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 rpm123 
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Traded just the old Perry chart, and just looking at the slope indies, and entering on the next tick when they all turned up or down - meeting the threshholds set. I knew this would catch the chop, but I wanted to see how badly. Doing it live (sim). I proved to myself I could enter on queue, and that I need better queues. Only had the hour before previous commitments, so I said what the heck and try. Not adding this to my spreadsheet as it was pure experiment. But oddly, it would be the only day I actually achieved 100% rules. Only 15% profitable trades and a $500 loss. But a great experiment.

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 rpm123 
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3/22/12

Missed big down draft, patiently waited for a reversal in trend, caught the first one with a cross anticipation, and the other two on the general strength. Sma readings smallest ema to largest.

First entry 73, 55, 46, 14, 9 First 2 were green to go, but 5 had not crossed 13 yet, 4 tick heat

Second entry 67, -13, 23, 18, 17, only sma1 green to go, no cross, 3 tick heat

Third entry 73, 28, 34, 24, 28. ma 1, 13, 20 green to go, no cross, 5 tick heat

3 winners

After yesterday's experimentation, realized can't wait for all MA to reach threshold. But wait. If I inch forward on the chart on each of these trades and wait for the slopes to all be green I would have had 3 winners with almost no heat. And with no cross. VAriable? Strength of overall trend.

Took it down to a 2 range for analysis, and actually looked like later entries than 4 range in this case. No conculsion there.

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 rpm123 
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Happy Camper. even in a narrow range part of the morning, waiting for the 5/20 cross and all slopes colored correctly, proved very profitable. Even feeling comfortable adding to winners, and to ones where I can get in an extra tick or two better. Marked up the chart too.

The kitchen sink indies are back, but I am not sure they are adding predictive value. At least not today.

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 rpm123 
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Tis tax season, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents.

I created a partnership entity, declared trader tax status, and hired a professional tax firm a couple years ago. This year, I am looking profitable, and am going to establish a mini 401k.

Without an entity and trader status, your deductible losses are limited to $3k per year. Who could ever imagine that you might lose more than $3k just starting out. Imagine it.

I've always done my own taxes, I may again. But each time I see the work done by the pro's, and thinking I can just copy it for next year, I pause, and have not switched back yet. This year I did have some local tax folks look at my past returns, and they all, 3, said stick with who I've got. So it is a littler trickier filing trader taxes than most.

And the mini-401k lets you put part of your profits in a tax advantaged account. And I believe you can trade in it later. So it's a double win. Hope to open mine up this year.

There are two national providers of this service plus plenty of local entity and tax guys, one you may already have a relationship with. I did not have anyone local, so I went with one of the nationals (not the one that recently did the webinar, as I wanted an entity and a cpa. Do your own due diligence).

I believe you have until April 15 to declare trader tax status for 2012. So definitely look into that now and see if it's for you.

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 Big Mike 
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rpm123 View Post
Tis tax season, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents.

I created a partnership entity, declared trader tax status, and hired a professional tax firm a couple years ago. This year, I am looking profitable, and am going to establish a mini 401k.

Great news!

You should also share the rest of your post in " The Tax Thread". Did you also check out the Traders Accounting Tax Webinar?



Mike

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 rpm123 
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Great news!

You should also share the rest of your post in " The Tax Thread". Did you also check out the Traders Accounting Tax Webinar?



Mike

No, I went with their competitor. I did not realize their was a thread though. Thanks.

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 rpm123 
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Move along, nothing to see. If I had time to trade today, I probably would have been chopped out, as I usually trade between 7 or 8 and 11 or Noon cst. I would have been looking for trades in what was a narrow 20 pip range. Waiting for the 5/20 cross and proper slopes just were not happening during this time frame - I think I just see 1, but it did work. Good day to be long and stay long.

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 rpm123 
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Flat time while I had time to trade. Stuck to rules waiting for entries. Broke adding to position rule in 2nd set of trades, but had cross and ema behind me. And lowered target in flat environment. But could have stayed in for more, as it turned out. But had already risked lowering my stop.

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 rpm123 
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- Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position….ever!
- Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent
- Exits when support becomes resistance
- Be patient with winning trades, be enormously impatient with losing trades
- All rules are meant to be broken

found these in @Jonson signature

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 rpm123 
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The first two trades entered well and took my profits. The third trade I felt was turning against me, and got out for 1 less tick target. 2 days to go in the contest. Many more days to go trading and journaling. Concentrating on one setup, and just entries, and journaling has restored my confidence and improved my trading. Learned alot form Perry and his threads. Learned as much or more about me.

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 rpm123 
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I trade, 2 contracts, no heat, followed rules, 8 ticks. Yes, journaling has given me my confidence back. Watching future71's webinar and had not heard the term emotional capital before. He nails it.

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 rpm123 
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Last day for the contest but not the journal. Did not follow rules. Was confident in decision, but did not follow rules.

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 rpm123 
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This month, this journal, has restored my confidence, replenished my emotional capital, renewed my commitment to trading, focused me to learn a new trading style, and offered the structure for more in-depth evaluation of myself, my trading, and a new methodology. I had blown out my account ans had stepped away. This is the best way to step back in.

What I've learned....

1) Journaling is not a one-time, one month task. It's as integral to a trading career as selecting a broker, trading, and filing taxes. It's more important than the rules I've committed to. It should be every trader's first rule. I had gotten out of the habit, and never kept one this honestly. It's the only way to track your true performance, not just your bottom line. It's harder to be honest with yourself, your demons, your performance, than you think. A journal removes all gray areas. Journaling improvements I'd like to make as I move forward include a) adding a column for feelings/emotions experienced during trade, b) a column for pre-trade checklist completion, c) a column for exit quality score, as I add contracts and trail, and d) perhaps some more analytics tbd.

2) I was trading blindly. I thought I had a setup, a plan, a methodology. That I was too experienced for sim. Even if I could never find the P in the P&L. Discipline starts with a journal commitment.

3) The PerryDigm is a pretty damn good setup. I have confidence in it, look forward to making it more my own, practicing back end trade management, and making it even more profitable. Next week, going to add a contract, as a trailer, that goes to plus 1 after the first target gets hit, and follows tick by tick. No extra heat. The probability discussion on the future71 webinar showed me the sensibility of scaling.

4) I showed real growth from the first "half" of the month. I improved a) in taking less less trades, b) less heat, c) higher profitability, d) higher rule compliance, and e) doubled my $ per trade. How would I know that without a journal? And able to quantify some of my known and unknown demons....

5) Demon Impatience - I knew I have that one, but seeing that I can fight it, in black and white, with a good journal and a good setup and good numbers, makes it that much more conceivable that it is not insurmountable.

6) Demon Rum - took a day off when could not pass the checklist and was not up to trading.

7) Demon Adding to Losers - I've still got it. Improving though. Added even in the second "half" of the month, but not uncontrollably.

8) Demon Not Cutting Losses Early - It's a tough one for me, you see, I'm always right. I'm letting the ATM do the heavy lifting on this one, staying off the DOM. The chart trader is just that much harder to move things around, it helps. Use tools.

9) Demon Trading Too Much - I will need to remain vigilant on this one, even though my numbers improved, it was primarily because some other commitments did not allow a full trading session. Adding a daily stop loss will be the cure of going off the deep end.

10) Demon Reckless Funding of Account - I've set up a plan and going to stick with it. Never will blow out another account. 1 and 2 contract trading is my M.O. from now on. When my account gets too big - withdraw, remove temptation to trade more contracts, add to losers, etc. When it dwindles - it's back to sim for me.

That about sums it up for now. My plan next week is to make some improvements to my tracking sheet, work on the 2 contract (one with a trailing stop method), and take the time to look a little more into the adx/dm confirmation of the PerryDigm. If all goes well, I'm going to dip my toes into the water again with some live trading days starting April 9. So a revisit to the trading plan rules will be in order.

Thanks everyone, readers, visitors, commenters, thankers, Big Mike, and everyone that I've borrowed freely from on the forum.

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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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 rpm123 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

Think I covered these already in my last post.

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 rpm123 
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Experimented with a second contract today. To get the ATM right. Testing the idea from the Risk Mgmt webinar by future71 that additional contracts scaled out, or trail stopped out actually improve your probabilities (and profitability, if working with a winning setup). I'm actually going to watch that again, to see if the trailing stop is the best way to achieve that, or to go 2 contracts, with one 2 and one 4 tick target. If anyone reading has any thoughts, pls share. I hate missing the runs, but trying to be as mechanical and unemotional about it, maybe going for 6 ticks is safer and more probable.

I have the ATM designed to enter 2 contracts, both with a 4 tick stop loss. The first target at 4 ticks, and the second contract goes to break even plus 1, when the first target hits, and then trails current price by 3 ticks. I took me a few trades to get it right.

Since the PerryDigm is a momentum based play, my theory is I may catch quick runups, worth more than the 3 tick trail that I will be giving up. Hesitant run-ups may stop out with 1 tick profit if no slippage.

Going to work with this this week. Plan to go live again next week, with 1 contract, 2 to 3 trades per day, $100 daily goal. With consistency. Achieved much better than that in Sim, but I know the Live trading demons can be cruel. Working on a more thorough tracking sheet this week too.

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 rpm123 
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Wanted to take the new ATM out for a spin on the live sim market. During an extremely flat spot in the market. Bad behaviors - added to a losing position, lowered a stop. But learned an issue/feature with the ATM trailing stop I have set up.

The stop moves up on the second trailing contract when the current price hits target even if the trade did not occur. At first this annoyed me, but I realize if it does take out that new breakeven plus 1 stop, its a good indication your trade does not have the momentum needed, and might be a good time to bail on the initial contract as well.

Also, in another trade, as planned, the trade goes up 3 ticks, but falls back to stop out, where you would have if you just set both targets there. This is a little demoralizing. Will study in replay if the runs outweigh the initial grab.

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 rpm123 
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Trading with the 2nd car and the ATM Stop loss. I'm not liking it. Going back to basics, 1 car, 4 ticks. I just don't like to give up ticks in the bank, for the promise of future tick. Not yet.

Not following rules again. Playing with shiny toys. Back to basics tomorrow.

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 rpm123 
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Went live for the first time since January. Very mixed results. Live trading really screws with my discipline.
Recognizing your demons and dealing with them are two different things.

20 trades - more than 4 goal. Still Overtrading.
Positive $350 but only followed rules 40% of the time, and and only 20% rule following trades were profitable.
Understandable fear on many trades, first time back in the pool, but managed fairly well.
Best Result - mostly traded with trend, maybe have cured myself of guessing tops and bottoms.
Impatience waiting for 4 ticks a big problem. Out early more often than not.
Trailing stop worked well on one trade.
Only moved stop 3 times, improving, once to good effect.
Added 4 times, to losing position, worked out twice and not, twice.
The BB Dots currently configured are not working for me.
The 5/11 cross is keeping me on the right side, but sometimes in too early.
I love the sound of the ATM trailing stop chinging away.

Tomorrow
4 trades, on right side, no increasing stop, wait for target, no adding, unless choosing TS ATM.

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Went live for the first time since January. Very mixed results. Live trading really screws with my discipline.
Recognizing your demons and dealing with them are two different things.

20 trades - more than 4 goal. Still Overtrading.
Positive $350 but only followed rules 40% of the time, and and only 20% rule following trades were profitable.

Ya, but it was profitable!

Nil per os
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 rpm123 
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Ya, but it was profitable!

I've been profitable for long stretches, but then will take a big hit, off plan.
Am committing to staying on plan, to make this a profitable career.
My rules may need tightening up.
I realize my biggest rule to keep me from ruin is a circuit breaker to stop trading after a set loss.

I was happy with the result of today. But have not moved as far towards unemotional trading as I had hoped.
I keep a poker face, but an itchy trigger finger.

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 rpm123 
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Peter Gabriel - No Self Control - YouTube

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 rpm123 
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Most Important Demon - I cannot take a loss. I need to be right.

Results - adding contracts to losing positions, exceeding stop limits, moving stops, too big losses, ignoring rules, ignoring new information.

Solutions - set and forget ATM. Hard and fast per trade loss, and per day loss circuit breakers. Single contract only til beat this demon.

Other Lessons from today - BBdots are not adding anything. Remove. All pieces in place for setup delivers 80% of the time. Proved again. Watching ticks in P&L in chart trader does not instill enough urgency, need to watch $ readout. Have a "Following Price Action" column. It's a woulda, shoulda, coulda column. Useless, will remove. Still overtrading. Taking every signal, anticipating many. Trying to ride a runner is not for me yet.

Bottom Line today - chipped away at a $755 cumulative loss back to $452.50. It was an -$857 4 contract I wanna be right loss that almost ruined my day. But I came back for 12 trades following the rules and recovering quite a bit. So, oddly, I call today a win. I rediscovered my discipline. Almost back to even for 2 day adventure back in the trading deep water.

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 NJAMC 
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rpm123 View Post
Most Important Demon - I cannot take a loss. I need to be right.

Results - adding contracts to losing positions, exceeding stop limits, moving stops, too big losses, ignoring rules, ignoring new information.

Solutions - set and forget ATM. Hard and fast per trade loss, and per day loss circuit breakers. Single contract only til beat this demon.

Other Lessons from today - BBdots are not adding anything. Remove. All pieces in place for setup delivers 80% of the time. Proved again. Watching ticks in P&L in chart trader does not instill enough urgency, need to watch $ readout. Have a "Following Price Action" column. It's a woulda, shoulda, coulda column. Useless, will remove. Still overtrading. Taking every signal, anticipating many. Trying to ride a runner is not for me yet.

Bottom Line today - chipped away at a $755 cumulative loss back to $452.50. It was an -$857 4 contract I wanna be right loss that almost ruined my day. But I came back for 12 trades following the rules and recovering quite a bit. So, oddly, I call today a win. I rediscovered my discipline. Almost back to even for 2 day adventure back in the trading deep water.

Hummm.... "But Need Consistency" I see what you mean.

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 rpm123 
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5 in, 5 out, all profitable, all followed rules, 30 minutes total, done for day, $225

Stopped trading, even though having a great day - no overtrading
Followed rules to the letter, kept anticipation to a minimum
Did not add or move stops
Waited patiently for all triggers to fire on setups
Had no losses to accept, new mindset/rules untested today

So the first live day, made money, but was unhappy broke rules so much
Second day, broke one rule very badly, but came back following rules. Happy for rules comeback
Today, followed rules and profitable. Very happy.

One day does not a successful trader make. String this average together for April and May and I'll revisit extra contracts and trailing stops. But I need more 'todays' under my belt first.

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 NJAMC 
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5 in, 5 out, all profitable, all followed rules, 30 minutes total, done for day, $225

Stopped trading, even though having a great day - no overtrading
Followed rules to the letter, kept anticipation to a minimum
Did not add or move stops
Waited patiently for all triggers to fire on setups
Had no losses to accept, new mindset/rules untested today

So the first live day, made money, but was unhappy broke rules so much
Second day, broke one rule very badly, but came back following rules. Happy for rules comeback
Today, followed rules and profitable. Very happy.

One day does not a successful trader make. String this average together for April and May and I'll revisit extra contracts and trailing stops. But I need more 'todays' under my belt first.

Awesome! Remember that consistancy thing you are shotting for moving forward!

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 rpm123 
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Identified, but have not been able to fix. I get in a trade, I have to be right, I add to a loser to average out, and it works half the time (positive feedback) and it does not work the other half and I take it in the shorts. I have identified a solution - ATM - set and forget, but I still screw the pooch, and do not follow my own rules. Analysis today shows I was only trading about 50/50, but if I had followed the simple rule, I would have about broken even. And if I had followed all my rules, I would have been profitable. So even with analysis, cold hard facts, solutions, I can't beat the lizard brain. Will ponder this for the weekend.

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 madelynnjohnson 
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Hi Patrick,

There is a NEW reality...................you have just entered it. ADDING TO CONTRACTS DOESN'T EXIST!

This is what is really happening.......(at least my humble opinion)........fear starts to set in because you see a trade starting to go against you.......so add a contract to to cut your losses. Funny thing is THE TRADE IS GOING AGAINST YOU. Reptilian brain kicks in..............where's the quick fix? I know...........ADD CONTRACTS. This is like bailing the row boat with a thimble. The brain registers that you are at least doing something. However, most of the time this fails and fails miserably.

Possible fix: Adding contracts and scaling in and out simply do not exist for you. They sound exotic and feel sophisticated. 1 or 2 contracts ONLY; a resonable profit target 3/4 ticks (expand profit target with more experience); a reasonable stop loss (one you can live with). A stop loss of 4 is too restrictive. 5 ticks against you and things are getting dicey. 6 ticks against you on a 4 range chart and you are already into the second candle going against you. Pretty good indication that you need to bail. (Test tolerances with market replays - what is the average number of ticks going against you before price direction reverses?)

The trade: All the work is done upfront. Very little thinking is done once the trade has been entered. Using Ninjatrader's DOM is almost like a bot - no after thinking required. Each trade is a discrete happening. You must let the DOM do its thing. You cannot interfer. You can only hit the abort (close) button. Otherwise, you have to let the trade play out. This is a different kind of trading - not like riding a runner for several hours.

And here is the kicker: THERE WILL ALWAYS BE ANOTHER TRADE AROUND THE NEXT BLOCK. Small "turtle-like" trades that are firm, positive and successful will be the ticket. There is no "grabbing" trades. The market is like a sea filled with fish and the profits will always be there. Don't get wrapped up in feeling like you have to get into a trade or you'll miss something. There is a sense of urgency when you are live on the market looking at the candles forming and seeing price action moving. Makes you want to jump in. This sense of urgency makes you want to do something - anything. But wait........you have the control in your hands as to when YOU assess the correct setup and decide upon the correct entry. You are the master............you can control when you want to enter the stream of price action.

Be plodding, methodical, non-reactive when making entry decisions. Also, set a goal for yourself - for now, all I want is a 70% success rate. We are not shooting for perfection only a reasonable percentage............reasonable percentage of success, reasonable profit target, reasonable stop loss.

In my humble opinion - I'd rather be the turtle than the hare...........I'll make more money.

Good trading,

Madelynn

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 Cloudy 
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I'm sorry about your drawdown. Just my attempt at some constructive intervention. I've had the same problem in my trading for some time live. I've gotten to the point where I don't scale-in more than once as often. But I still have problems accepting a stop loss. Big Mike posted a link on my journal to a webinar "case" that Futurestrader71 did to help intervene for a trader in crisis loss. Hope it's helpful.


I also did a summary of what I heard in the webinar. Does this mean scaling-in/averaging-in/leveraging-in/adding contracts (i.e. it's all the same thing isn't it?) never works as a CP strategy? I don't know for sure. As of now, I've gone completely back to sim or not even sim at all for almost a week. I don't know if next week I should do live or stay on sim since I broke my weekly loss limit plan by more than twice already. I sure did break my daily loss limit plan in a terrible way.

I don't know for sure what the solution is. I would think the cp traders know how they beat this psychological/money block. Whether it meant never averaging-in, or bigger stop losses, or adherence to a daily loss limit. Maybe getting used to stopouts as long as it follows a plan. Or what Futurestrader71 mentioned as an exercise: practice "scratching-out" and paying the broker ~$5 per scratchout. I don't know for sure, just mulling over some ideas to try to help beat this thing.

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 rpm123 
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Sobering

Why does Peter Gabriel keep coming to mind?

Peter Gabriel - Shock The Monkey - YouTube

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  #73 (permalink)
 rpm123 
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Contemplated the Monkey. The Lizard Brain.
Goal today was to not move a stop wider and not to add contracts.
That will be part of my rule set moving forward.
Accomplished today. 1 down.

Also a circuit breaker - stop trading if/when daily loss exceeds $200.

I did tighten stop appropriately when trade not moving well, and raised target and stop when trade was moving well.

17 Trades and $27.50. Not stellar. But successful in my book as I accomplished my new risk rules.

I'm anticipating a trade still working about 50/50, but with the new 4/6 T/SL ATM that is not a winning proposition. My trades following all the rules (no anticipation) are working 60 to 100% of the time. Need to build on that. @madelynnjohnson makes a good point that I was trying to do, use the ATM and set and forget. Widening my SL to 6 seems too large with a Target of 4 - i like the idea of a RR ratio of 1 to 1. Note the small spreadsheet to the right of my results. 70% success rate with a 4/6 nets $75. At first I scoffed, but its better than I did today. The turtle wins. I think I am going to do some more testing on a TS ATM, to get away from the 6 SL as quick as possible.

More on Risk Control - @Cloudy turned me on to an "intervention" by @FuturesTrader71 that rang true in many parts. futuretraders71's risk webinar a month or so ago first mentioned me and my monkey. it is great stuff. I think I'll buy the seminar 3. The action points gleaned so far is including a circuit breaker in the risk plan - for me, stop trading if/when daily loss exceeds $200. Weekly loss $500. More about detailed plans in another post. Here's today's results.

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 madelynnjohnson 
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Patrick,

I have a possible suggestion for you.

Looking at your chart, most of the price action during your trading time consisted of EMA crossovers (or pretty darn close to a cross) and trending with three phases. When you are trading identify in your mind using these two categories ( 1. crossover, 2. trending phase) what price is doing. If you use these two categories to enter a trade it nails it in your head. You know that in order for a trend to start happening there has to be an EMA crossover. Track your EMA crossovers and determine on average how many candles you usually get before the crossover reverses. From my experience on a 4 range you usually get 3 to 4 candles. If it is a crossover then enter the trade with a higher profit target. Let's say on average 3 candles - that 12 ticks. I would set my profit target at 6 - perhaps 7 or 8 with experience and let it ride. If you are looking at a trending phase on a 4 range on average I would say you are going to get 2 1/2 candles before price reverses. That's 8 ticks - so go in with 5 ticks and let it run. By expanding your profit target and customizing your profit target before you enter the trade, you will get a little more profit and not feel the need to "play" with the DOM moving profit targets. And never mess with your stop loss when you see the trade moving against you. Not even a couple of tick hoping that the trade will go again in your favor. I tried that when I first started trading and 9 times out of 10 it backfired on me!!

Also, put in a trailing stop for the crossovers that will ensure you get at least 1 point should price reverse unexpectedly or be ready to hit the "eject" button if you notice that price is hovering around a certain level and does the "back and forth" thing within a two tick range. You have a 50/50 chance of guessing the correct direction. Do not using a trailing stop with trades in a trend.

You have to internalize this: I am only getting a piece of price action. I can't capture the whole thing AND THAT'S OKAY. I'M NOT SUPPOSED TO CAPTURE THE WHOLE THING.

Also, in my humble opinion, you are overtrading and taking trades that are sticky to start with. I think the crossovers are your bread and butter trade. You have them identified. By expanding your profit target on these trades you will feel less likely to try to double dip the crossover and get into trouble. Also, I wonder what your stats would be if you restricted your trades to only crossover (or very close to a crossover) and only the first trade after that in the trend. This means that you would pass on the rest of the trend because of high risk. What I'm finding that works for me is identifying the parameters of which trades WILL work. There are many trades out there. What I have to choose is what WORKS. Don't get me wrong........I still don't have all the answers and I never will. We are in a high probability game and we want to stack the deck in our favor. You have a setup that works and works well. Build upon that and develope a bit of tunnel vision.

By the way, posting to your journal is continuing education for me. I receive reinforcement by crystalizing my analysis and thoughts. Thanks for letting me do that.

Madelynn

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 rpm123 
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Madelynn, @madelynnjohnson

Your input is invaluable. I've understood what I am doing, much better, with your observations. Could you expound on a couple comments above though, and/or how I might set them up in an ATM strategy.

1) You suggest "I would set my profit target at 6 - perhaps 7 or 8 with experience and let it ride." and again "That's 8 ticks - so go in with 5 ticks and let it run" Using an ATM, how do I set it for a profit target and let it ride too? Or do you use a mental target and stop?

2) You suggest "put in a trailing stop for the crossovers that will ensure you get at least 1 point should price reverse unexpectedly" I think I would set that up as a breakeven plus 1 to be triggered at ? (how many) ticks profit? But it's not really a trailing stop, or is it, in terms of the ATM strategies?

If you could address those two items above I'd be very grateful.

For your, my, and anyone else's edification, here is how I have been trading.
1) Use an ATM with a hard wired 6 stop (was 4) and a 4 target. (I find the DOM is too easy (quick) for me to manipulate (especially when I was on TradeStation, so I use Chartrader/ATM's/Line Dragging. Slower, but more deliberate.
2) Waiting for a 5EMA/11EMA cross and background color change, to signal me to "get ready"
3) When all 5 MA's in the right top corner are matching the background color, I push a button.
4) I use Buy Bid or Sell Ask buttons on the Chart Trader (to get in one tick below Market usually)
5) If it is only slowly going to 2 or 3 ticks, or even hits 4 but does not fill, I manually move my stop up to BE.
6) If it's moving quickly towards 4 ticks, or I hear the rising ADX alert ding (giving me confidence), I'll push my target and stop equally, manually.
7) If it's headed to the 6 stop fairly quickly, it usually gets there, and I take it. (Not moving it wider - new behavior)
8) If it's still moving up after first profit taking, yes these are lower probability, but I will usually wait for a retirement and the 5 MA's to meet the color thresholds, and enter again the same way. Sometimes I just jump on the train.

I like the ATM to keep me from fidgeting myself into a loss. Any tips along the line of a better ATM setup is appreciated. I posted my BE+1 TS after 3, several posts back, but have not been using it with just one contract, should I be? Is that a good one?

Thanks in advance to anyone that wants to jump in.

Patrick

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  #76 (permalink)
 madelynnjohnson 
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Hi Patrick,

Thanks so much for your appreciation. As always these are just suggestions based on my experience and a lot of time in front of charts and thinking. It's up to you to sift them and decide what you want to incorporate and what you want to throw out.

First, I would not use Chart Trader. The way it is set up invites "messing" with the trade. It will get you into big trouble. It is also more difficult to manage trades using it. Entering trades with it is more difficult.

Let's concentrate on crossover trades first. (In this category I will also include those trade where the 5 just barely misses a cross but acts like a crossover trade. Will talk about these later.) Crossover trades are the ones that will be your bread and butter trades. I especially like the ones that are a true cross because in order for price to penetrate the 20 or the 13 it has to have momentum behind it. You can see this by the fact that the slope of the EMA turns blue at 45 degrees. The slope would not be there if there was wimpy momentum. Think of it this way.......the penetration of the 13 (which is what I would recommend) by the 5 at a 45 degree angle usually indicates that there is a price reversal in the making. Today's chart demonstrates that several times.

Okay, as stated in my previous post - we know on average on a four range chart (because we have spent a good deal of time observing these kinds of crossovers and know approximately how many candles will form after the crossover ) we have a very good chance of 6 ticks and probably 7 or 8. So let's say that we are going to go for 6 ticks. I'm just taking this as an example. You may want to start with 6. I do not use break even. I like to keep things very simple - less mistakes and confusion. In the ATM strategy parameters I have my stop loss at 8 (I can live with this number based on market observations, however, I have my finger on the close ("eject") buttom if I start seeing 6 ticks in the red. Create a stop strategy. Within the Stop strategy, Auto breakeven is at 0 for both fields; Auto trail is as follows: 1 step circle is blue (1 step strategy), stop loss is 2, frequency is 1 and profit trigger is 6. This means that your stop stragegy will kick into play when you have reached 6 ticks in profit. When this happens your stop will move to 4 ticks and with each subsequent positive tick the stop will move up 1 tick. This is fairly restrictive but a good way to go. As you become more experienced you can play around with this.

So within the ATM strategy parameter square on the DOM you will have quantity, stop loss (8), profit target (put a number larger than used in your stop strategy - like 10), stop strategy (discussed above). The stop loss number of 8 and the profit target of 10 become moot when the stop strategy is initiated.

All of this is done ahead of time before you even think about entering a trade. Enter your trade on the next free space above or below (short/long) the printed price on the DOM ladder. Be sure that you have the safety on so that it asks you if you really want to enter this trade with so many contracts and at that price.

This is getting rather long so let me send it and I will continue in another post.

Madelynn

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 rpm123 
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madelynnjohnson View Post
Hi Patrick,

First, I would not use Chart Trader. The way it is set up invites "messing" with the trade. It will get you into big trouble. It is also more difficult to manage trades using it. Entering trades with it is more difficult.

That's funny. I'm using the Chart Trader for the same reasons you state to use the DOM. With the DOM, I was always messing with the trade. Moving stops, targets, and chasing; more easily. Chart Trader makes it harder for me to do that.

I'll build the ATM Strategy and play with it on replay. Thank you!!!

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 madelynnjohnson 
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Well, Patrick,

You know the old saying..............what's good for the goose might not be good for the gander.

Try the DOM again and think of it like a bot that you program and then don't touch.

I really do think it will help. Anyway try it and see.

Madelynn

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 plethora 
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madelynnjohnson View Post

Let's concentrate on crossover trades first. (In this category I will also include those trade where the 5 just barely misses a cross but acts like a crossover trade. Will talk about these later.) ... Think of it this way.......the penetration of the 13 (which is what I would recommend) by the 5 at a 45 degree angle usually indicates that there is a price reversal in the making. Today's chart demonstrates that several times.

Madelynn:

+1 on your commentary being invaluable. I've already done a cut and paste of your wisdom to add to my handwritten trading journal. Thank you.

I might have missed it, but don't see the 5 on Patrick's charts. Might you be thinking of Perry's former setup? Also, I read on these threads that you trade or traded this system but prefered an older template than the one currently being used. I would love to see those charts if you don't mind posting.

Thanks again.

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 rpm123 
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Cold and a Sore Throat

Watched a little while. Tried the 8 tick stop ATM in the AM chop, on SIM, not sure I'm ready for 8 ticks.

Something I have been doing is adding horizontal lines for prev day's ohlc and the overnite high and low. I do it manually instead of with any indicator, as I like to see/feel the lines in the sand. I do use the Constant lines indie with the CME link EUR / USD for the ohlc, and then just plain old horizontal lines for the overnite levels.

It was an interesting Inside Day today. After making new overnite highs and lows, it hugged yesterdays open all morning, sank to yesterday's close, rose to yesterday's high and sitting on yesterday's open again.

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 madelynnjohnson 
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Hi Plethora,

I am using Perry's paradigm from the first webinar. I am also using an older version of the MAMultislope. I find that it just works better for me. And yes, in the ensuing discussion thread after that first webinar the 8EMA was first used and then switched to the 5. Either one will give you what you need but I prefer the 5. So as to not highjack Patrick's journal, send me a PM regarding templates.

Patrick,

Hope you get to feeling better. Nothing is worse than a late spring/early summer cold. Take care.

Madelynn

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 rpm123 
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Back from a long weekend and over being sick, and trading much better. Live trading. Over initial hesitation, but now wary of overconfidence. Follow the plan.

Watching the big picture better. Not jumping off the train as quickly. Using the ATM. Still sticking with one contract, max 2. Keeping 8 point stops, mostly. Reptile brain of always wanting to be right has been quieter for a week. But being ever vigilant. Trading less. Winning more. 4 out of 16 days had large drawdown - reptile brain not licked yet. Just not acceptable. Using the PerryDigm moving averages, charting the OHLC and the o'nite hi and low. Trading from 7 to 10 cst mostly. Patiently waiting for some movement. And when the doorbell rings on the chart. The moving averages are keeping me on the right side. And helping me see price action. Keeping an 8 range bar open while trading the 5. Still shooting for the first $100. Taking more if I can't find a reason not to. Still sometimes adding that second contract and it's been working. But it's trouble, trouble, trouble when it doesn't. Max day loss to be $250. New rule will help the big picture.

Feeling price action better. But need to remember to stick with indications not instinct. Two good days does not a trader make.

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