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This my take on a Market forecast using MTP and Elliot Waves:
Quick summary:
TF in wave 5 with a bull target of 866 (min wave 5) TF has been a text book pattern on the daily
ES in Wave 5 at min wave 5
YM in Wave 5 with an initial bull target of 13000 (min wave 5)
NQ not as clear best I can tell in Wave 3 up past Min Wave 3 looking to Max Wave 3 ? ( Apple bull run effects?)
Currently in this trade we will see how it turns out. Realize I am using a combination of TTT and MTP for this trade. I had 15 min resistance and a TTT predicted penetration of the previous high.
1. I entered before the TS3 Short setup trying to anticipate a down market based on TTT looking for a R/R of 4.9
2. Had I waited for the TS3 trade I would have had better R/R ( Let the trade come to you)
How the Trade Turned Out:
Exited late for a R/R of 2.1....IE: I probably should have exited at the ATR stop using standard trade management
Trade Management / Exit:
1. Must consider the Market Context when in a trade. If you are in a strong trend and all markets are pointing the same direction then maybe thats the time to attempt to capture the move full wave 5 down and not just the Wave 3 as in this trade. ATR seemed to be a tell
2. Today the markets were not in coherence I probably should have exited at the Typical Wave 3 WPT or used standard trade management IE Strength bands past STF and managed with the ATR
3. If you are not in a strong trend trade then look for logical exits.... particularly if the other markets are moving sideways
Observations:
1. Different time-frames gave me different exit targets while in the trade, however I followed the time frame that seemed to fit best as to where the actual market was going (not sure if this is good technique or not)
We had a nice TS4 signal on the 5 min chart and this wa at exactly at wave A = wave C so odds of a reversal in this area was there of course TTT MA had almost been reached but since Monday will be a Holiday a little push to the upside then sideways motion is not a surprise.
P.S You use very good tools to trade, I use same as you: TTT and MTP plus 2 or 3 indicators specifically for TF.
Thanks for the reply....I learned something from your reply....I wasn't aware of the Wave A= Wave C there is a higher chance of reversal.
It makes sense since wave 3 is usually the largest of the 5-wave sequence. I should have been looking closely at the Typical Wave C WPT. The big question is wether you are in a wave-c or a wave 3?
As the trade was unfolding I thought I might be in a Holy Grail Major Wave 3 Down from the TS3 (1min) so I set my stop shy of the Typical Wave 3 WPT closer to the TTT MA.
The Major Wave 1 unfolded as a intermediate 5-wave down then an ABC correction on the Wave 2 followed by a TS3 sell so I was primed to follow through to the Wave 3 Target / TTT Ma.
I did see a base forming at 11:18 - 11:27 EST and that was another reason I opted out when I did. The goal was to let my profit run.
what I often do is I use extensions From Ninja and put these in place so I know the levels I have to watch for, so if I see MTP signal near the area with reversal then I sure will keep a very close eye on possible reversal.
Yes, you are correct I know all the Fibs levels that MTP is looking for to generate signals. I studied all these and came up with a default Fibs extesions in Ninja so that way I know in advance possible reversal areas then I wait to see which one will trigger an MTP signal. I have also made same for the DP's I know the prices in advance that should be reached to trigger them.
