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  #1 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Journal Purpose: Provide a forum for the MTPredictor Trading Platform discussion and trade setups.

Feel free to post any Trades / Lessons learned for others to see

Real-time trades probably would be best served by an actual Chat room.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
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This my take on a Market forecast using MTP and Elliot Waves:

Quick summary:
TF in wave 5 with a bull target of 866 (min wave 5) TF has been a text book pattern on the daily
ES in Wave 5 at min wave 5
YM in Wave 5 with an initial bull target of 13000 (min wave 5)
NQ not as clear best I can tell in Wave 3 up past Min Wave 3 looking to Max Wave 3 ? ( Apple bull run effects?)

https://futures.io/attachments/63036d1329487492

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  #4 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Currently in this trade we will see how it turns out. Realize I am using a combination of TTT and MTP for this trade. I had 15 min resistance and a TTT predicted penetration of the previous high.

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  #5 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Trade Entry:

1. I entered before the TS3 Short setup trying to anticipate a down market based on TTT looking for a R/R of 4.9
2. Had I waited for the TS3 trade I would have had better R/R ( Let the trade come to you)

How the Trade Turned Out:
Exited late for a R/R of 2.1....IE: I probably should have exited at the ATR stop using standard trade management

Trade Management / Exit:

1. Must consider the Market Context when in a trade. If you are in a strong trend and all markets are pointing the same direction then maybe thats the time to attempt to capture the move full wave 5 down and not just the Wave 3 as in this trade. ATR seemed to be a tell

2. Today the markets were not in coherence I probably should have exited at the Typical Wave 3 WPT or used standard trade management IE Strength bands past STF and managed with the ATR

3. If you are not in a strong trend trade then look for logical exits.... particularly if the other markets are moving sideways

Observations:
1. Different time-frames gave me different exit targets while in the trade, however I followed the time frame that seemed to fit best as to where the actual market was going (not sure if this is good technique or not)

2. As of 12:50 EST TF moving sideways

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  #6 (permalink)
Larry
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 59 since Oct 2009
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We had a nice TS4 signal on the 5 min chart and this wa at exactly at wave A = wave C so odds of a reversal in this area was there of course TTT MA had almost been reached but since Monday will be a Holiday a little push to the upside then sideways motion is not a surprise.

P.S You use very good tools to trade, I use same as you: TTT and MTP plus 2 or 3 indicators specifically for TF.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Larry,

Thanks for the reply....I learned something from your reply....I wasn't aware of the Wave A= Wave C there is a higher chance of reversal.

It makes sense since wave 3 is usually the largest of the 5-wave sequence. I should have been looking closely at the Typical Wave C WPT. The big question is wether you are in a wave-c or a wave 3?

As the trade was unfolding I thought I might be in a Holy Grail Major Wave 3 Down from the TS3 (1min) so I set my stop shy of the Typical Wave 3 WPT closer to the TTT MA.

The Major Wave 1 unfolded as a intermediate 5-wave down then an ABC correction on the Wave 2 followed by a TS3 sell so I was primed to follow through to the Wave 3 Target / TTT Ma.

I did see a base forming at 11:18 - 11:27 EST and that was another reason I opted out when I did. The goal was to let my profit run.

Razor

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  #8 (permalink)
Larry
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 59 since Oct 2009
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what I often do is I use extensions From Ninja and put these in place so I know the levels I have to watch for, so if I see MTP signal near the area with reversal then I sure will keep a very close eye on possible reversal.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
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I assume you mean fibonacci extensions in Ninja 7?

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  #10 (permalink)
Larry
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 59 since Oct 2009
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Razor View Post
I assume you mean fibonacci extensions in Ninja 7?

Yes, you are correct I know all the Fibs levels that MTP is looking for to generate signals. I studied all these and came up with a default Fibs extesions in Ninja so that way I know in advance possible reversal areas then I wait to see which one will trigger an MTP signal. I have also made same for the DP's I know the prices in advance that should be reached to trigger them.

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  #11 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

On the road this week so not as much time to trade.

My game plan going into today (Thur 23 Feb 12):

Game-Plan for the day:

I was initially planning on trading the TF because:

1) Inside Gap down
2) The TF opened below the Buy Day Low (TTT)
3) Based on Taylor Sell Short Day - there was an 87% chance of reaching the Buy Day Low - This gave me a direction to start trading.
4) I was looking to enter at 15min support and exit at the first DP off the last up pivot for a R/R 4.0 trade
5) I would initially manage the trade using the ATR stop

I DID NOT GET TO TAKE THIS TRADE DUE TO A PROBLEM WITH MY TF FEED FROM MY PROVIDER!!

I DECIDED TO TRADE THE ES WITH THE SAME BASIC GAME PLAN

See attached screen shots taken at the end of the day

Lessons learned:

If there is not a good reason to exit prior to your target then DON'T
Let your profits run!

The Secondary WPT off the Major WPT actually nailed the high of the day and it would have been a R/R 5.9 profit

Part of the reason I exited was I was under a time constraint

All-In-All a good trade (R/R 3.0)

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  #12 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

I am relatively new at trading futures....still developing a trading system & working on building confidence in my system.

Thought this was interesting:

From Denise Shull author of Market Mind Games.... I put into action a couple of things she recommended from her experience with successful hedge fund and bank traders.

Some of the key points that stuck out to me were:

1) On weekends (away from the markets) they come up with their Macro View of the market and the level of Conviction of that macro view (IE: Trading Plan)

2) Their conviction in that view is important because it helps them get through minor wiggles in the market and keeps them from exiting to early and re-entering.

3) They figure out what they believe and how much confidence they have in that belief

4) They articulate their conviction in writing

5) They tend to know in advance what would prove them wrong (IE: what would make them change their mind)

6) Know in advance what you will do when the market does not go your way

Recommend watching the Webinar.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Daily Gameplan:

1) Go short today at a 15min resistance on Daily Charts
2) Look for Short MTP Setups (TTT Buy Day)
3) With the recent run ups.... Holy Grail a possibility
4) Initial DP targets were large on the down side (recent market swings might make these targets, ), however any Auto-setup targets would be considered

Actual Trade (see Charts):
TS4 Short to the Dp for a R/R3.7 on the 24hr chart data

Things going for trade:
1) At Previous days High
2) At 15 min Resistance on Daily charts
3) TS4 Short Setup

Lessons learned / Re-learned:

1) I had a bias to the downside today...and took 3 poor-trades prior to this trade because I was anxious to get in (Novice-Trader Error)
2) Re-learned lesson: just because you have a line a chart dies not mean the market will go there.
3) Was in the MTP webinar this AM after my trade was put on...another member was also in this trade and looking for a Holy Grail. This gave me confidence to move my exit from my DP to the Min Wave-3 Target
4) I followed the price action on the 133T chart with actually was useful in helping determine if the trend was going to continue.
5) Exit at the ATR Stop based on the fact we hit the original DP target (R/R3.7), the ATR trailing stop was approaching the market price, and the TIC charts seemed to indicate a base forming (my perception after watching a number of trades)

Questions I have

1) Which DP levels are more important the 24hr or the Daily ?
- Maybe what ever one the market seems to honor?
2) There were essentially 4 different setups between RTH /ETH charts to take.... all had similar price targets but which one is best?
a. 1min TS4 24hr chart
b. 2 min TS2 24hr chart
c. 1min TS2 Daily Chart
d. 2min TS4 Daily Chart

NOTE: ALL WERE GOOD SET-UPS AND HIT THEIR TARGETS

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  #14 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
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Here are the four setups that I was looking at in the above questions

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  #15 (permalink)
Larry
Montreal
 
 
Posts: 59 since Oct 2009
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Razor View Post
Questions I have

1) Which DP levels are more important the 24hr or the Daily ?
- Maybe what ever one the market seems to honor?
2) There were essentially 4 different setups between RTH /ETH charts to take.... all had similar price targets but which one is best?
a. 1min TS4 24hr chart
b. 2 min TS2 24hr chart
c. 1min TS2 Daily Chart
d. 2min TS4 Daily Chart

NOTE: ALL WERE GOOD SET-UPS AND HIT THEIR TARGETS

I mostly look at 24 hours charts and look for set ups on these charts, sometimes we have almost same ones on min charts RTH. For ETH I use Range charts as that way less noise compare to min charts so much easier to see where tops and bottoms are. If we take today as example we had nice sell signal on ETH charts this was DP area and also 50 % retracements from top, from there they went lower printing a nice abc down at DP area this was also 38 % retracements from yesterday's low and 62% extension from top also we had also 100% extension on RTH charts 5 min so I knew odds of going up 2 points or more from that point were very high. I hope this can clarify some of your ??.

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  #16 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
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Larry

Thanks for the post....

I have talked with other experienced traders that also like range charts...I must admit I do not have any experience with them.

Does MTP work just as well with range charts?

Also do you have a good divergence indicator that you would recommend? I use the Ninja built-in Stochastics (3,14,3) on the minute and TIC charts.

Any recommendations would be much appreciated.

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  #17 (permalink)
Larry
Montreal
 
 
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Razor View Post
Larry

Thanks for the post....

I have talked with other experienced traders that also like range charts...I must admit I do not have any experience with them.

Does MTP work just as well with range charts?

Also do you have a good divergence indicator that you would recommend? I use the Ninja built-in Stochastics (3,14,3) on the minute and TIC charts.

Any recommendations would be much appreciated.

Yes MTP works very well with range charts just load a few and you will see, you will realize you have less noise specially when you are on ETH as time is irrelevant only price and isn't what we are looking for to initiate a trade.

I have a good divergence indicator with good settings that I have found, I even have a sound alerting me when this condition is present if you want more info about it ask Richard from TTT he is the guy that wrote it for me so I am sure he will be able to also give you a few hints but from what I see you are on the right track.

Good Luck

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  #18 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 22 received

Daily Trading Plan:

1) Looking to go short today (TTT Buy Day)
2) Looking for 15 min Resistance
3) Looking for Divergence (added approach)
4) Looking for a TS Short setup off the 15 min Resistance

The Trade

Markets were not in agreement (Different Gap-ups...Some pushed right through 15min DP resistance)
No TS Setup to use on minute charts
There was a DP on the 133T chart (I like 133T to manage and follow once I am in a trade)
I entered off the 15 min resistance

Lessons Learned:

1) TRADE YOUR PLAN!
2) This really was an easy ATR Trailing Stop Trade....
3) Gave up $1000.00 exiting and then re-entering

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 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus Trading Group
Trading: TF, NQ
 
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Market Context
Today I was not looking for long trades unless we opened below 805.5
Looking to get short today

Here is an Elliot Wave trade that would have worked out had I taken it
The Trade Setup:
1) Major 5-wave impulsive move down
2) Typically the market will correct to the Dp WPT off Wave-4 of the 5-wave impulsive move
3) Market reversed, indications of a reversal / correction was an oversold indication from the Stochastic indicator and end of Wave-5
4) The setup target was a R/R of 4.7

See attached screen shots for trade

Lessons Learned:
1) The R/R for this trade was very good
2) Fear of loss prevented me from taking the trade so I need to remember:
Entry - actually looked good with good R/R
Exit - controlling risk (Stops) and letting your profits run is all about exits:
Therefore if elect to take a good R/R trade all you have top lose is 1R

Move on don't lament about missed opportunities there is another profitable trade just around the corner
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 mkw111 
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I am really enjoying you both using your anylisis, game plam and use of MT predictor.
Good Job . keep posting

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  #21 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I did not post on Thur 1 mar...it was a tough day trading when profits could have been made

The reason for this post is to gather my thoughts and let others learn from my errors


Daily Trading Plan:

Looking for 15min DP Support to go long
Anticipate Auto Setups to the Long side

What I did:

1) Took a losing Inside Gap Fill trade to the short side
2) Took late trend trades for a loss
3) Late recognition of router problems required me to enact my "internet loss back-up plan"

See Attached Snap Shots

Lessons Learned:

1) Stick with your game plan unless you have a good reason not to
2) If Ninja Trader is not working well it may be your data feed
3) I usually like to track my trades on the TIC charts - and noticed that there wasn't a lot of trading going on
Turned out I had a router problem and was missing data.

4) Honestly I totally missed the 5-wave down sequence...this should have been in my daily game plan! (See follow-on post Part2)

Important Recommendation: If you do not have a back up plan for when your data feed/ internet connection goes bad you better not trade until you do.

I have an emergency phone number to my broker's trading desk posted on my computer monitor for just this scenario

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  #22 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Elliot Wave Theory
After a 5-wave impulsive move there normally is a correction to the DP taken off the Wave-4 pivot!

It is ironic that on Friday 2 March after missing a profitable trade I attempted to see what I had missed. i posted the lesson learned and then joined the Friday MTP Webinar....

Steve reviewed the 1 Mar markets and talked about a 5-Wave impulsive move down on the TF and how to anticipate a correction to the DP taken off the wave-4 DP ....

When I saw this I realized I totally missed this in my trading day plan for 1 MAR !!!

So here are a couple of after-the-fact screen shots of what I missed (Lessons learned in part 1)

Hope this helps...Happy Hunting

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  #23 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: TF, NQ
 
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On the road this week and next so trading is going to be a bit more difficult...

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  #24 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Have a good trip.

Mike

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  #25 (permalink)
 Razor 
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
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On the road Night Flying and missed these trades ....

Wasn't in the Friday MTP Webinar so I do not know if these were covered...this is just what I observed

I thought I would post to help illustrate some good trades and hopefully build / reinforce my own confidence in my trading system.

Daily Game plan:

TTT Buy Day - so I would initially look for the market to be driven down to a Low / Support level followed by the begining of the TTT "3-Day Rally"



Build your market Situational Awareness (SA) / Market Context






Pre-Market Open Chart Setup:
  • 15 Minute MTPredictor DP's should already be on the Chart
  • These DP's give you some initial Major Support / Resistance Zones as well as possible targets
  • Look for Intermediate Wave Counts / Use MTP's EW int function to help build SA
Trades:
Trade #1: Advanced MTP Setup using the 15 min DP support as a low and the DP taken off the Intermadiate Wave-4 pivot as the 1st target zone (see previous posts on this type of trade)

Trade #2: TS3 Standard MTP long Set-up to the Min Wave-C target

See attached post market analysis screen snapshots with comments...

Thoughts / Observations:
  • The decision to enter a trade can be difficult...
    • Your daily gameplane and Pre-market Open Chart prep can help build market SA
    • When the market appears to mirror your forecast then take a calculated risk...this is the best one can do
    • The market can either accept or reject all your targets and DP's...if it does reject then re-assess
  • What time-frame should you use...
    • 15 Minute seems to work well for larger degree trends (credit to MTPredictor)
    • I find that when looking at different time-frames on the TF that each time-frame usually point to the same thing (Trend ) and often have very similar setups
    • I have had luck with 1min, 2min and 133Tic charts
    • I use whatever time-frame gives me the "cleanest" / "best looking" wave counts
    • I think of MTPredictor's waves as a series of "stencils"... which ever stencil (time-frame) models the current market and Elliot wave theory best.... that is what I use.
  • It is easy to look back and see with 20/20 hind sight winning trades ( they look easy until you try to execute them and trust your trading system)
Trade Management:
  • Looking back at these trades using the Standard MTP Rules for trade Management would have worked well...
  • Could eek out more R/R using the DP WPT's and knowing the wave counts..not always the case.
  • What do you do when you get a auto-set-up in the opposite direction...don't panic and analyze it (see attached screen shot #3)
The purpose of this MTP Forum is two fold:
  1. To help me gather my own thoughts and to learn from my success / mistakes
  2. Hopefully get feed back from more experienced traders out there...is my analysis valid or flawed?
Please feel free to post comments/ throw spears ... I am not an expert ....only attempting to become a better trader

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  #26 (permalink)
 Razor 
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On the Road again this week, so trading time is limited

Here is a screen shot of a pattern that has been working out well...

Trade Setup:

Advanced setup - Wave-5 impulsive move correction to the Wave-4 DP (See earlier posts)

R/R 2.4 from entry to exit at the Wave -4 DP

Comments:

- Night flying so not a lot of pre-market analysis
- Just trying to get a couple R today

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 Razor 
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Not trading today but Here are some trades I did see after the fact:

The purpose of this post is to reinforce MTP confidence and to build a cash of tradable patterns

All Trades were on a 24hr TF06-12 133 Tic chart

I have found that the 133T time-frame often works well on the TF (John Carter uses 133T as well)

Again I think of MTPredictor's wave as a "stencil" or template...if the market unfolds in "Good" Elliot waves then I consider that time-frame to be the time-frame to trade in.

Here are some of the trades I saw after the fact (I know easy to see after the fact):
1) Possible Holy Grail
2) DP/End of Wave-5
3) TS-1 / Holy Grail


See Attached Screen Shots:

Note: there were at least 2 more advanced trade-setups that could have been taken...see if you can identify them

Comments / Replies welcome

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 Devil Man 
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Razor View Post
Not trading today but Here are some trades I did see after the fact:

The purpose of this post is to reinforce MTP confidence and to build a cash of tradable patterns

All Trades were on a 24hr TF06-12 133 Tic chart

I have found that the 133T time-frame often works well on the TF (John Carter uses 133T as well)

Again I think of MTPredictor's wave as a "stencil" or template...if the market unfolds in "Good" Elliot waves then I consider that time-frame to be the time-frame to trade in.

Here are some of the trades I saw after the fact (I know easy to see after the fact):
1) Possible Holy Grail
2) DP/End of Wave-5
3) TS-1 / Holy Grail


See Attached Screen Shots:

Note: there were at least 2 more advanced trade-setups that could have been taken...see if you can identify them

Comments / Replies welcome

Razor for your Holy Grail setup also check six for oscillator divergence....works well for trading reversals.

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  #29 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Devil Man,

You are correct...normally I have a Stochastic indicator up

What do you use for divergence?

Razor

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  #30 (permalink)
 Razor 
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I have been looking at different time-frames in an attempt to identify the time-frame that best unfolds in "Good" Elliot Wave patterns.

The thought process is as previously noted: that if the market appears to be unfolding with "Good" EW sequences then I can better use the tools in MTPredictor to forecast / trade off

Here is a snapshot of an example of a 2 min versus 3min TF06-12 Time-frame comparison

Notes:
The 3min Typical Wave-3 WPT (Wave-Price-target) nailed the Pivot

The 2min End of Wave-5 trade DP target of the wave-4 pivot predicted a good pull-back WPT level

Thoughts:
Trading is about maximizing the Risk/Reward (IE larger wins and controlled risk losses) per trade and therefore you should not take every trade that comes down the pike but aim towards the one's with the highest R/R

In terms of Elliot Wave that would be trading off the end of Wave-2 to catch the "largest" potential impulsive Wave-3

I would like to be able to Back or Forward test the "End of Wave-5" trades to get an average R/R

The big question is over time are you better off just trading the Wave-3 or can the End of Wave-5 be just as profitable or even more profitable.

A member of the weekly (M-W-F) MTPredictor Trading Webinars ...I believe trades primarily the "Holy-Grail Wave-3"trade
The return has been an average R/R of 4.8 !!

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  #31 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Razor View Post
A member of the weekly (M-W-F) MTPredictor Trading Webinars ...I believe trades primarily the "Holy-Grail Wave-3"trade
The return has been an average R/R of 4.8 !!

But on what win percentage? We need both pieces of information

Mike

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  #32 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Today I was unable to trade (Too many broken things around the house)

What a day not to prepare and trade!!

This look back stuff is too easy...trading is so much more difficult.

Trading Plan:
- Today was a TTT Sell-Short-Day

- Should be looking to get long for the following reasons:
  1. According to the 2yr historical data there was a 95% chance of at least making the "Buy-Day-Low" (TTT BdL = 822.6) up to 839.0 on the TF
  2. 4yr historical data had an 86% chance of reaching the BdL =822.6 to 842.1
Needless to say there was data pointing UP

- This at least gives a direction to trade in
- Therefore we should be looking for an opportunity to get long IE 15min DP support or a MTP TS long set up coming into 15min support area

Market Context:

The markets have been in a 5-day down trend (longest trend Year to date)
All 4 markets were in congruence today
All reverse / bounced off their 15 min Decision Point Support zones at 1015 EST

Trade:

This is an "MTPredictor Advanced Trade" using 15min Decision Point functions

Once in the trade you would need to trade manage to maximize the run.

Thoughts / Lessons Learned:
  1. looking back at this it is evident that preparation is key...I would have had to have my ducks in a row to take the long trade IE:
    1. TTT Probabilities
    2. 15 min Support zones on the charts
    3. Know what my target zone was and what the R/R to that target was
  2. This analysis was accomplished on the Daily charts...the 24hr charts also had similar 15min support zones
  3. The importance of trading in the direction of trend
  4. All markets moving together is key to market follow thru (seems like where the best trades occur)

Attached Charts
15 min Pre-market analysis (DP's)
3min Trade Setup ( 15min DP & Wave-3 WPT)
3min Trade Management thoughts
Market Context ( All markets reaching support and reversing at same time)

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 Big Mike 
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Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #34 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Thinking about this trade this AM had my DP's on the chart prior to market open but did not take the trade...mistakenly thought I needed 15 min support

Trade Plan:

An Outside GAP is when the market Opens outside of the previous day's trading range....

Today we had an outside GAP up meaning that the market opened above the previous day's High

Outside Gaps that do not fill within approx 30 minutes of market open generally continue in the previous trend

IE there is still pent-up buying pressure in the market at Opening today

- Look for initial pull back for an attempted GAP fill
- Look for blue Buyers Bars (IE buyers coming in)
- Look for lower time-frame DP support

Note: Also need to keep the Daily ATR (Volatility) in mind...Don't want to take a trade beyond or a small way from the ATR max range for the day

As of now the market 1-Tic below target (R/R5.0) I probably would have come out at the ATR for a R/R =4.0

Here is the Chart

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  #35 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Quick Post

Did not get in on this trade...saw it happening but did not pull trigger

See attached Pic

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  #36 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Another Quick trade before the Wed Webinar

End of wave-5 impulsive move to the W4 DP R2.9

See Chart

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  #37 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Finally took a trade today here it is

Market Context:

Markets pushed down through 15 min Support So I was looking for a trade to the next DP level

Trade Setup:
TS-3 on a 1min TF06-12 (24hr) Chart
ES had pushed through 15min support

Trade management:
Monitored ES during trade
Set Stop and Target Via MTP
Moved Trailing Stop to B/E when ES moved lower (Caution here moving stop too quickly)

Lessons Learned
- Trades had been setting up during the AM and I past by a good 9R in trades (see 2-previous posts)
- Coherence between the markets is a good thing when in a trend
- ES was a good confirmation during the trade
- Exited at the Min Wave-C Target since it coincided with the 15 min DP support (nailed low)
- Trade continued to Typical Wave-C WPT (R=11)... Maybe could have looked at how the waves were unfolding during the trade IE ended up being a 5-Wave impulse down, However the 15 Min DP support was a real threat
- I probably moved my trailing stop down too soon (Big potential to lose a good trade getting stopped out)...
- Moving my stop to BE kept gave me gumption to stay for the Target

Charts:
Snap in trade
Snap at Exit
Where it finally ended up



See Chart

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  #38 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Big Mike View Post
But on what win percentage? We need both pieces of information

Mike


Didn't mean to blow off your question on "What percentage"

Here are the numbers that I have second hand :

26 Trades
9 Wins
17 Losses

Wins 9/36 = 34.6%
Losses 17/36 = 65.4%

Average win = 4.8R
Average Loss = 1R

So even with a 34.6% win rate.... the wins are 4.8 x times as large as the losses.

"You can have a method that is 90% accurate and still lose all of your money trading it." (Chuck Branscomb)


Some thoughts on the stats:
- Small sample size
- Not sure what his opportunity for trades is
- With a loss rate of 65.4% (losing 2 out of every 3 trades) may be difficult psychologically to trade...however you can go broke trading a 90% winner and feel good doing it because of the human psychological bias to be correct

Here is a great article explaining Expectancy (R) for measuring the profitability of trading systems

https://ninjariskexpert.com/docs/Expectancy.pdf

Razor

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 Razor 
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Can't trade today...but thought I would post a Pre-Market Open Analysis:

Trade Plan:

TTT Points Lower- "Buy-Day" (Logic is that smart money drives market lower to buy)
15min DP's are on the Charts pre-Market Open defining the initial range for the day
Would be looking for short set-ups at Resistance levels (Light Blue are "soft-Support" Targets)
Possible longs at 15 min Support areas if Held
Decision Point are regions where the market may pause any either accept or reject the S/R level
Look for Patterns / set-ups near 15 min DP's

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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #41 (permalink)
 Razor 
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On vacation this week...Took this trade this AM

Took a couple of short trades earlier in the AM right as market opened for 2R loss
One trade was a Standard TS-3 short for a 1R loss (there was room to the 15 min support) Against the Gap fill
Other was a DP long trade

Trade: End of W5 to W4 DP WPT R4.2 Target

Markets moving down below 15min Support to new lows after initial move to close GAP Did not take a Standard TS-3 Short today because of 15 min support level (R6.3)

Once markets moved below that level shorts were in the playbook
Auto DP short trade at the end of a Wave-5 impulsive move
DP trades in MTP indicate divergence in the market as well
ES was indicating an overbought stochastic so I was confident taking the trade

Lessons Learned
Mismanaged a good trade today... a slight wiggle shook me out of a good trade
This is a trend for me.... Need to just let the trades play out and let the math work

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  #42 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Market Context:

Outside GAP down on a Holiday session
Sell Day would favor longs off 15 Min Support

Initially took a long trade that got stopped out... I took the trade just as the market was opening Not a good plan unless your stops are large...there always seems to be large bars and volatility at the open knocking me out of a profitable trade.

Here is a trade I did take but failed again as in my last post... squeamish on a market wiggle and exited... profitable but not nearly as profitable as it could have been

Trade Setup

TF06-12 TS-4 Short on 144Tic 24hr Chart

Notes:

1. Standard MTP trade Setup on a black STF
2. Stoch pointed to "overbought"
3. Nice ABC pattern coming Correction off the end of an impulse move down from a significant DP (IE ABC was a wave-2 corrective pattern)
4. Therefore the trade could possibly be a Wave-3 Play


Trade Management

1. Initial Target was the TS-4 Target
2. If market moved below the Wave-B Pivot DP and Start of Wave-A pivots then that would be a good confirmation of Wave-3

Lessons Learned:

Hate to say it again but got shaken out (fear of loss...residual emotion from losing trade taken at market open)
Gut feel was that the price action favored the short continuing...but was already out of trade

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  #43 (permalink)
 Razor 
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Trade Setup is an End of Wave-5 Trade initially to the Wave-4 DP Target

I was in this trade and made the same error as earlier today. (Very humbling/ Embarrassed)

Needed to let the trade play out... the fundamentals were all good with markets in sync

Chart Snaps
1) Trade Entry
2) Where it ended up

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  #44 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Razor View Post
Market Context:

Outside GAP down on a Holiday session
Sell Day would favor longs off 15 Min Support

Initially took a long trade that got stopped out... I took the trade just as the market was opening Not a good plan unless your stops are large...there always seems to be large bars and volatility at the open knocking me out of a profitable trade.

Here is a trade I did take but failed again as in my last post... squeamish on a market wiggle and exited... profitable but not nearly as profitable as it could have been

Trade Setup

TF06-12 TS-4 Short on 144Tic 24hr Chart

Notes:

1. Standard MTP trade Setup on a black STF
2. Stoch pointed to "overbought"
3. Nice ABC pattern coming Correction off the end of an impulse move down from a significant DP (IE ABC was a wave-2 corrective pattern)
4. Therefore the trade could possibly be a Wave-3 Play

Trade Management

1. Initial Target was the TS-4 Target
2. If market moved below the Wave-B Pivot DP and Start of Wave-A pivots then that would be a good confirmation of Wave-3

Lessons Learned:

Hate to say it again but got shaken out (fear of loss...residual emotion from losing trade taken at market open)
Gut feel was that the price action favored the short continuing...but was already out of trade

Razor,

I can relate to what you described all to well. You make some very import statements that you may want to try and address. When you say you felt Squeamish, or you have fear of loss and residual emotion, these are the things that I think are dictating your trading more than the method. I say this because that is how its been for me.

I'm reading this book and I thought I'd pass along the website where you can get the book. Its about being Mindful when you trade and not mindless. You want to be aware of your thoughts, but don't let the thoughts dictate your decisions. Easy, no, but I think we need to get to this point to ultimately succeed.

trader_psychology

David

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 Razor 
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David_R View Post
Razor,

I can relate to what you described all to well. You make some very import statements that you may want to try and address. When you say you felt Squeamish, or you have fear of loss and residual emotion, these are the things that I think are dictating your trading more than the method. I say this because that is how its been for me.

I'm reading this book and I thought I'd pass along the website where you can get the book. Its about being Mindful when you trade and not mindless. You want to be aware of your thoughts, but don't let the thoughts dictate your decisions. Easy, no, but I think we need to get to this point to ultimately succeed.

trader_psychology

David

Thanks! Iwill have a look at the link / Book
Razor

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 Razor 
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Market Landscape:

- Fed Day later in the Afternoon
- Big run-up yesterday during RTH and in the after market hours (propelled by Apple news)
- Outside Gap Up today (Large Gap)


Thought process
  • Initially I was thinking long because I figured there was probably some pent up buying pressure
  • Took a profitable TS-3 Long toward the 15 Min Resistance DP
  • If I got that impulsive move down off the 15min Resistance followed by an ABC correction... I was looking for any Auto Trade setup to the short side for an Holy Grail.

    Holy Grail Basics for a Short Trade:
  1. Market moves up to the Major 15min Resistance Zone
  2. Market then makes an impulsive move away from the 15min Resistance DP (wave 1 impulsive down)
  3. Market makes an ABC correction (wave-2 Corrective)
  4. Target is Wave-3 WPT
Actual Trade Taken:

- I took a failed TS-4 just prior to this trade...re-entered because the trade set-up was still good
- Exit Target was the Wave-3 Typical WPT for a R/R 6.3
- The 133T chart actually had a better R/R because the entry bar was smaller (R/R 12.3) allowing for tighter stop and more contracts

Other Thoughts
- Sometimes minute-charts work best and sometimes the TIC-charts work best
- I am getting used to TF price action on the 133/144 TIC charts and therefore tend to stick with the Tic Charts unless there is too much noise then I go back to the minute charts.
- When volume is low... 133/144 TIC charts actually have less noise then minute charts (example ETH)
- Bottom line if there is a lot of noise in one time frame; I switch to the other another always searching for the best representation of actual market price action
- This was probably a risky trade on a Fed Day...but the price action looked good so I took it
- Comparing the 24hr and Daily Charts…the Daily Chart actually gave a better Big- Picture look as to the market movement over the last 5 trading days




Lessons Learned:
  • Things I missed:
    • I missed the divergence in the market to the downside while I was in the trade. This would have given me more confidence to leave stop at 1-Tic above entry point.
    • "If you are in a trade trust your own instincts" (Shawn D)
    • Building the “Big Picture” 15min Chart for this post, I saw a number of things I did not see until after the fact.
    • There was evidence of this potential trade the night before IE
      • Stochastics versus Price movement higher was indicating a large divergence and Overbought condition on the 15 min Big Pic Chart
      • Pre-Market it was easy to see a large Outside Gap up with room to the Major 15min Resistance Zone to relieve buying pressure coming into the 15min resistance zon
      • 5-Wave impulsive move up (although definitely not textbook) suggest a possible market reversa
  • Trade management is Key
    • Moved stop to 100% mark too soon and it took me out
    • I later re-entered and set the exit to my original target this cost me profits
Attached Snap Shots:
  1. Big-Pic 15 Minute Daily Chart
  2. Trade Setup on 144T Chart
  3. Trade Setup on 133T Chart
  4. Actual Snap During Trade

Attached Thumbnails
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 Razor 
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Haven't posted in a while...been on the road a lot lately

Here are two from this AM.

Market Context:

Overnight move to the upside
Inside GAP up ("Inside GAPs tend to fill")
Market moved to fill GAP premarket (a good TS-3 short trade R/R4.3 w/ ATR trailing Stop)
My assessment was there was buying pressure in the market after GAP Fill

Longs seemed appropriate post market open

Trade: TS-4 Long projected R/R 7.5

Target corresponded with Major ABC...C-Wave Targets

Observations:

1. When deciding when to take a trade I often look at how the setup looks visually as well as the price action leading up to the trade:
- I like to see an ABC correction off the end of a Larger Degree Trend or move
- In this case the the LDT was a Major Wave consisting of intermediate impulsive move up
- Followed by an ABC correction



2. In this particular case the 133Tic chart seemed to eliminate some of the noise by minimizing the time domain

3. Sometimes minute charts provide a better trade...I tend to like TIC charts until there is just too much noise / chop

4. In terms of $ made on the trade... an important observation is the number of contracts you can trade on your account...

IE you may not have enough margin to trade 8-contracts

5. Irregardless of the number of contract you can trade the trade is still a R/R of 7.5 therefore if you only traded one or two contracts you still made 7.5 times the $ you risked (1 contract = $380, 2 contracts=$760)


Attached Charts

1) TS-4 Long (133T)
2) TS-1 Short / TS-4 Long
3) Same Trade with Major Wave-C WPT's
4) Trade on the 1 minute Charts for comparision

Attached Thumbnails
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 Razor 
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Missed most of this...stepped away from computer at wrong time...Late entry had to close out position early due to stop R/R

Total R/R = 7.8

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 Razor 
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Haven't post in a very long time but here is a quick BTC/USD forecast using Ninja Trader and MTPredictor addon:

BTC appears to be consolidating at 240 Min Decision Point (Read Fib level)

The attached 60 minute chart appears to be a textbook Elliot 5 Wave move up.

I was amazed at how well the market corrected at The Wave2 and Wave4 software predicted Zones!

Market is at key Decision point IE Resistance Fib level:

I'm interested to see if BTC reverses to the "Dp off the Wave 4" IE the $10,546 level or the Wave5 continues upward to the Typical @ 12,389 level or extended Wave 5 Levels.

I'm thinking CME and Nasdaq BTC futures on the 10th and 18th December will give some clarification

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