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Today I was unable to trade (Too many broken things around the house)
What a day not to prepare and trade!!
This look back stuff is too easy...trading is so much more difficult.
Trading Plan:
- Today was a TTT Sell-Short-Day
- Should be looking to get long for the following reasons:
According to the 2yr historical data there was a 95% chance of at least making the "Buy-Day-Low" (TTT BdL = 822.6) up to 839.0 on the TF
4yr historical data had an 86% chance of reaching the BdL =822.6 to 842.1
Needless to say there was data pointing UP
- This at least gives a direction to trade in
- Therefore we should be looking for an opportunity to get long IE 15min DP support or a MTP TS long set up coming into 15min support area
The markets have been in a 5-day down trend (longest trend Year to date)
All 4 markets were in congruence today
All reverse / bounced off their 15 min Decision Point Support zones at 1015 EST
Trade:
This is an "MTPredictor Advanced Trade" using 15min Decision Point functions
Once in the trade you would need to trade manage to maximize the run.
Thoughts / Lessons Learned:
looking back at this it is evident that preparation is key...I would have had to have my ducks in a row to take the long trade IE:
TTT Probabilities
15 min Support zones on the charts
Know what my target zone was and what the R/R to that target was
This analysis was accomplished on the Daily charts...the 24hr charts also had similar 15min support zones
The importance of trading in the direction of trend
All markets moving together is key to market follow thru (seems like where the best trades occur)
Attached Charts
15 min Pre-market analysis (DP's)
3min Trade Setup ( 15min DP & Wave-3 WPT)
3min Trade Management thoughts
Market Context ( All markets reaching support and reversing at same time)
Thinking about this trade this AM had my DP's on the chart prior to market open but did not take the trade...mistakenly thought I needed 15 min support
Trade Plan:
An Outside GAP is when the market Opens outside of the previous day's trading range....
Today we had an outside GAP up meaning that the market opened above the previous day's High
Outside Gaps that do not fill within approx 30 minutes of market open generally continue in the previous trend
IE there is still pent-up buying pressure in the market at Opening today
- Look for initial pull back for an attempted GAP fill
- Look for blue Buyers Bars (IE buyers coming in)
- Look for lower time-frame DP support
Note: Also need to keep the Daily ATR (Volatility) in mind...Don't want to take a trade beyond or a small way from the ATR max range for the day
As of now the market 1-Tic below target (R/R5.0) I probably would have come out at the ATR for a R/R =4.0
Markets pushed down through 15 min Support So I was looking for a trade to the next DP level
Trade Setup:
TS-3 on a 1min TF06-12 (24hr) Chart
ES had pushed through 15min support
Trade management:
Monitored ES during trade
Set Stop and Target Via MTP
Moved Trailing Stop to B/E when ES moved lower (Caution here moving stop too quickly)
Lessons Learned
- Trades had been setting up during the AM and I past by a good 9R in trades (see 2-previous posts)
- Coherence between the markets is a good thing when in a trend
- ES was a good confirmation during the trade
- Exited at the Min Wave-C Target since it coincided with the 15 min DP support (nailed low)
- Trade continued to Typical Wave-C WPT (R=11)... Maybe could have looked at how the waves were unfolding during the trade IE ended up being a 5-Wave impulse down, However the 15 Min DP support was a real threat
- I probably moved my trailing stop down too soon (Big potential to lose a good trade getting stopped out)...
- Moving my stop to BE kept gave me gumption to stay for the Target
Charts:
Snap in trade
Snap at Exit
Where it finally ended up
Didn't mean to blow off your question on "What percentage"
Here are the numbers that I have second hand :
26 Trades
9 Wins
17 Losses
Wins 9/36 = 34.6%
Losses 17/36 = 65.4%
Average win = 4.8R
Average Loss = 1R
So even with a 34.6% win rate.... the wins are 4.8 x times as large as the losses.
"You can have a method that is 90% accurate and still lose all of your money trading it." (Chuck Branscomb)
Some thoughts on the stats:
- Small sample size
- Not sure what his opportunity for trades is
- With a loss rate of 65.4% (losing 2 out of every 3 trades) may be difficult psychologically to trade...however you can go broke trading a 90% winner and feel good doing it because of the human psychological bias to be correct
Here is a great article explaining Expectancy (R) for measuring the profitability of trading systems
Can't trade today...but thought I would post a Pre-Market Open Analysis:
Trade Plan:
TTT Points Lower- "Buy-Day" (Logic is that smart money drives market lower to buy)
15min DP's are on the Charts pre-Market Open defining the initial range for the day
Would be looking for short set-ups at Resistance levels (Light Blue are "soft-Support" Targets)
Possible longs at 15 min Support areas if Held
Decision Point are regions where the market may pause any either accept or reject the S/R level
Look for Patterns / set-ups near 15 min DP's
In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.
A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?
D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?
E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?
Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.
