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MTP

  #31 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
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Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
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Razor View Post
A member of the weekly (M-W-F) MTPredictor Trading Webinars ...I believe trades primarily the "Holy-Grail Wave-3"trade
The return has been an average R/R of 4.8 !!

But on what win percentage? We need both pieces of information

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #32 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

23 Mar Tf06-12 Trades

Today I was unable to trade (Too many broken things around the house)

What a day not to prepare and trade!!

This look back stuff is too easy...trading is so much more difficult.

Trading Plan:
- Today was a TTT Sell-Short-Day

- Should be looking to get long for the following reasons:
  1. According to the 2yr historical data there was a 95% chance of at least making the "Buy-Day-Low" (TTT BdL = 822.6) up to 839.0 on the TF
  2. 4yr historical data had an 86% chance of reaching the BdL =822.6 to 842.1
Needless to say there was data pointing UP

- This at least gives a direction to trade in
- Therefore we should be looking for an opportunity to get long IE 15min DP support or a MTP TS long set up coming into 15min support area

Market Context:

The markets have been in a 5-day down trend (longest trend Year to date)
All 4 markets were in congruence today
All reverse / bounced off their 15 min Decision Point Support zones at 1015 EST

Trade:

This is an "MTPredictor Advanced Trade" using 15min Decision Point functions

Once in the trade you would need to trade manage to maximize the run.

Thoughts / Lessons Learned:
  1. looking back at this it is evident that preparation is key...I would have had to have my ducks in a row to take the long trade IE:
    1. TTT Probabilities
    2. 15 min Support zones on the charts
    3. Know what my target zone was and what the R/R to that target was
  2. This analysis was accomplished on the Daily charts...the 24hr charts also had similar 15min support zones
  3. The importance of trading in the direction of trend
  4. All markets moving together is key to market follow thru (seems like where the best trades occur)

Attached Charts
15 min Pre-market analysis (DP's)
3min Trade Setup ( 15min DP & Wave-3 WPT)
3min Trade Management thoughts
Market Context ( All markets reaching support and reversing at same time)

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-23mar12-tf06-12-15min-ld-trend.jpg   MTP-23mar12-tf06-12-3min-chart.jpg   MTP-23mar12-tf06-12-3min-trade-manage.jpg   MTP-23mar12-tf06-12-market-comparison.jpg  

Last edited by Razor; March 23rd, 2012 at 07:41 PM. Reason: Add Chart
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  #33 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
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Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,356 given, 83,237 received




Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #34 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

27 Mar 12 Outside Gap Trade

Thinking about this trade this AM had my DP's on the chart prior to market open but did not take the trade...mistakenly thought I needed 15 min support

Trade Plan:

An Outside GAP is when the market Opens outside of the previous day's trading range....

Today we had an outside GAP up meaning that the market opened above the previous day's High

Outside Gaps that do not fill within approx 30 minutes of market open generally continue in the previous trend

IE there is still pent-up buying pressure in the market at Opening today

- Look for initial pull back for an attempted GAP fill
- Look for blue Buyers Bars (IE buyers coming in)
- Look for lower time-frame DP support

Note: Also need to keep the Daily ATR (Volatility) in mind...Don't want to take a trade beyond or a small way from the ATR max range for the day

As of now the market 1-Tic below target (R/R5.0) I probably would have come out at the ATR for a R/R =4.0

Here is the Chart

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-26mar12-tf06-12-outside-gap-trade.jpg  
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  #35 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

28Mar12 TF06-12 Short

Quick Post

Did not get in on this trade...saw it happening but did not pull trigger

See attached Pic

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-28mar12-tf06-12-ts4-short.jpg  
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  #36 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
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Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

28Mar12 TF06-12 End of W5 Short

Another Quick trade before the Wed Webinar

End of wave-5 impulsive move to the W4 DP R2.9

See Chart

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-28mar12-tf06-12-eof-wave-5.jpg  
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  #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

28Mar12 TF06-12 TS-3 SHort R=6.7

Finally took a trade today here it is

Market Context:

Markets pushed down through 15 min Support So I was looking for a trade to the next DP level

Trade Setup:
TS-3 on a 1min TF06-12 (24hr) Chart
ES had pushed through 15min support

Trade management:
Monitored ES during trade
Set Stop and Target Via MTP
Moved Trailing Stop to B/E when ES moved lower (Caution here moving stop too quickly)

Lessons Learned
- Trades had been setting up during the AM and I past by a good 9R in trades (see 2-previous posts)
- Coherence between the markets is a good thing when in a trend
- ES was a good confirmation during the trade
- Exited at the Min Wave-C Target since it coincided with the 15 min DP support (nailed low)
- Trade continued to Typical Wave-C WPT (R=11)... Maybe could have looked at how the waves were unfolding during the trade IE ended up being a 5-Wave impulse down, However the 15 Min DP support was a real threat
- I probably moved my trailing stop down too soon (Big potential to lose a good trade getting stopped out)...
- Moving my stop to BE kept gave me gumption to stay for the Target

Charts:
Snap in trade
Snap at Exit
Where it finally ended up



See Chart

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-28mar12-tf06-12-trade-shot.jpg   MTP-28mar12-tf06-12-short-target-hit.jpg   MTP-28mar12-tf06-12-where-went.jpg  
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  #38 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

Trading Percentages


Big Mike View Post
But on what win percentage? We need both pieces of information

Mike


Didn't mean to blow off your question on "What percentage"

Here are the numbers that I have second hand :

26 Trades
9 Wins
17 Losses

Wins 9/36 = 34.6%
Losses 17/36 = 65.4%

Average win = 4.8R
Average Loss = 1R

So even with a 34.6% win rate.... the wins are 4.8 x times as large as the losses.

"You can have a method that is 90% accurate and still lose all of your money trading it." (Chuck Branscomb)


Some thoughts on the stats:
- Small sample size
- Not sure what his opportunity for trades is
- With a loss rate of 65.4% (losing 2 out of every 3 trades) may be difficult psychologically to trade...however you can go broke trading a 90% winner and feel good doing it because of the human psychological bias to be correct

Here is a great article explaining Expectancy (R) for measuring the profitability of trading systems

http://ninjariskexpert.com/docs/Expectancy.pdf

Razor

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  #39 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

29Mar12 Pre-Market Open Prep

Can't trade today...but thought I would post a Pre-Market Open Analysis:

Trade Plan:

TTT Points Lower- "Buy-Day" (Logic is that smart money drives market lower to buy)
15min DP's are on the Charts pre-Market Open defining the initial range for the day
Would be looking for short set-ups at Resistance levels (Light Blue are "soft-Support" Targets)
Possible longs at 15 min Support areas if Held
Decision Point are regions where the market may pause any either accept or reject the S/R level
Look for Patterns / set-ups near 15 min DP's

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-29mar12-am-market-prep.jpg  
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  #40 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,356 given, 83,237 received


Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote

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