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MTP

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

1 Mar Lessons / Lookback Part 1

I did not post on Thur 1 mar...it was a tough day trading when profits could have been made

The reason for this post is to gather my thoughts and let others learn from my errors


Daily Trading Plan:

Looking for 15min DP Support to go long
Anticipate Auto Setups to the Long side

What I did:

1) Took a losing Inside Gap Fill trade to the short side
2) Took late trend trades for a loss
3) Late recognition of router problems required me to enact my "internet loss back-up plan"

See Attached Snap Shots

Lessons Learned:

1) Stick with your game plan unless you have a good reason not to
2) If Ninja Trader is not working well it may be your data feed
3) I usually like to track my trades on the TIC charts - and noticed that there wasn't a lot of trading going on
Turned out I had a router problem and was missing data.

4) Honestly I totally missed the 5-wave down sequence...this should have been in my daily game plan! (See follow-on post Part2)

Important Recommendation: If you do not have a back up plan for when your data feed/ internet connection goes bad you better not trade until you do.

I have an emergency phone number to my broker's trading desk posted on my computer monitor for just this scenario

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-1mar12-tf03-12-trades-taken.jpg  

Last edited by Razor; March 5th, 2012 at 01:45 AM. Reason: Error
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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Yorktown, VA/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus Trading Group
Favorite Futures: TF, NQ
 
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

1 Mar 12 TF03-12 Part 2 (What I should have done)

Elliot Wave Theory
After a 5-wave impulsive move there normally is a correction to the DP taken off the Wave-4 pivot!

It is ironic that on Friday 2 March after missing a profitable trade I attempted to see what I had missed. i posted the lesson learned and then joined the Friday MTP Webinar....

Steve reviewed the 1 Mar markets and talked about a 5-Wave impulsive move down on the TF and how to anticipate a correction to the DP taken off the wave-4 DP ....

When I saw this I realized I totally missed this in my trading day plan for 1 MAR !!!

So here are a couple of after-the-fact screen shots of what I missed (Lessons learned in part 1)

Hope this helps...Happy Hunting

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-1mar12-tf03-12-dp-setup.jpg   MTP-1mar12-tf03-12-w5-long-set-up.jpg  

Last edited by Razor; March 5th, 2012 at 09:19 AM.
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  #23 (permalink)
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Minimal Trading this Week


On the road this week and next so trading is going to be a bit more difficult...

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  #24 (permalink)
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  #25 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
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8 Mar TF 03-12 Long Trades

On the road Night Flying and missed these trades ....

Wasn't in the Friday MTP Webinar so I do not know if these were covered...this is just what I observed

I thought I would post to help illustrate some good trades and hopefully build / reinforce my own confidence in my trading system.

Daily Game plan:

TTT Buy Day - so I would initially look for the market to be driven down to a Low / Support level followed by the begining of the TTT "3-Day Rally"



Build your market Situational Awareness (SA) / Market Context






Pre-Market Open Chart Setup:
  • 15 Minute MTPredictor DP's should already be on the Chart
  • These DP's give you some initial Major Support / Resistance Zones as well as possible targets
  • Look for Intermediate Wave Counts / Use MTP's EW int function to help build SA
Trades:
Trade #1: Advanced MTP Setup using the 15 min DP support as a low and the DP taken off the Intermadiate Wave-4 pivot as the 1st target zone (see previous posts on this type of trade)

Trade #2: TS3 Standard MTP long Set-up to the Min Wave-C target

See attached post market analysis screen snapshots with comments...

Thoughts / Observations:
  • The decision to enter a trade can be difficult...
    • Your daily gameplane and Pre-market Open Chart prep can help build market SA
    • When the market appears to mirror your forecast then take a calculated risk...this is the best one can do
    • The market can either accept or reject all your targets and DP's...if it does reject then re-assess
  • What time-frame should you use...
    • 15 Minute seems to work well for larger degree trends (credit to MTPredictor)
    • I find that when looking at different time-frames on the TF that each time-frame usually point to the same thing (Trend ) and often have very similar setups
    • I have had luck with 1min, 2min and 133Tic charts
    • I use whatever time-frame gives me the "cleanest" / "best looking" wave counts
    • I think of MTPredictor's waves as a series of "stencils"... which ever stencil (time-frame) models the current market and Elliot wave theory best.... that is what I use.
  • It is easy to look back and see with 20/20 hind sight winning trades ( they look easy until you try to execute them and trust your trading system)
Trade Management:
  • Looking back at these trades using the Standard MTP Rules for trade Management would have worked well...
  • Could eek out more R/R using the DP WPT's and knowing the wave counts..not always the case.
  • What do you do when you get a auto-set-up in the opposite direction...don't panic and analyze it (see attached screen shot #3)
The purpose of this MTP Forum is two fold:
  1. To help me gather my own thoughts and to learn from my success / mistakes
  2. Hopefully get feed back from more experienced traders out there...is my analysis valid or flawed?
Please feel free to post comments/ throw spears ... I am not an expert ....only attempting to become a better trader

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-03082012-tf-03-12-long-trade.jpg   MTP-03082012-tf03-12-ts3-long-trade.jpg   MTP-003082012-tf-02-13-ts2.jpg  

Last edited by Razor; March 10th, 2012 at 08:47 AM. Reason: Syntax
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  #26 (permalink)
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13 Mar TF06-13 Short (1min)

On the Road again this week, so trading time is limited

Here is a screen shot of a pattern that has been working out well...

Trade Setup:

Advanced setup - Wave-5 impulsive move correction to the Wave-4 DP (See earlier posts)

R/R 2.4 from entry to exit at the Wave -4 DP

Comments:

- Night flying so not a lot of pre-market analysis
- Just trying to get a couple R today

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-20120313-tf06-12-adv-short-setup.jpg  
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  #27 (permalink)
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20Mar12 TF06-12 Trades

Not trading today but Here are some trades I did see after the fact:

The purpose of this post is to reinforce MTP confidence and to build a cash of tradable patterns

All Trades were on a 24hr TF06-12 133 Tic chart

I have found that the 133T time-frame often works well on the TF (John Carter uses 133T as well)

Again I think of MTPredictor's wave as a "stencil" or template...if the market unfolds in "Good" Elliot waves then I consider that time-frame to be the time-frame to trade in.

Here are some of the trades I saw after the fact (I know easy to see after the fact):
1) Possible Holy Grail
2) DP/End of Wave-5
3) TS-1 / Holy Grail


See Attached Screen Shots:

Note: there were at least 2 more advanced trade-setups that could have been taken...see if you can identify them

Comments / Replies welcome

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-20-mar12-tf06-12-possible-hg.jpg   MTP-20mar12-tf06-12-dp-end-w5.jpg   MTP-20mar12-tf06-12-eof-w5-trade.jpg   MTP-20mar12-tf06-12-ts1-hg.jpg  
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  #28 (permalink)
Capt. Johnny Jameson
Fort Lauderdale
 
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Razor View Post
Not trading today but Here are some trades I did see after the fact:

The purpose of this post is to reinforce MTP confidence and to build a cash of tradable patterns

All Trades were on a 24hr TF06-12 133 Tic chart

I have found that the 133T time-frame often works well on the TF (John Carter uses 133T as well)

Again I think of MTPredictor's wave as a "stencil" or template...if the market unfolds in "Good" Elliot waves then I consider that time-frame to be the time-frame to trade in.

Here are some of the trades I saw after the fact (I know easy to see after the fact):
1) Possible Holy Grail
2) DP/End of Wave-5
3) TS-1 / Holy Grail


See Attached Screen Shots:

Note: there were at least 2 more advanced trade-setups that could have been taken...see if you can identify them

Comments / Replies welcome

Razor for your Holy Grail setup also check six for oscillator divergence....works well for trading reversals.

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  #29 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
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Devil Man RE:Divergence

Devil Man,

You are correct...normally I have a Stochastic indicator up

What do you use for divergence?

Razor

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  #30 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 47 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 10 given, 18 received

21Mar12 Time-Frames


I have been looking at different time-frames in an attempt to identify the time-frame that best unfolds in "Good" Elliot Wave patterns.

The thought process is as previously noted: that if the market appears to be unfolding with "Good" EW sequences then I can better use the tools in MTPredictor to forecast / trade off

Here is a snapshot of an example of a 2 min versus 3min TF06-12 Time-frame comparison

Notes:
The 3min Typical Wave-3 WPT (Wave-Price-target) nailed the Pivot

The 2min End of Wave-5 trade DP target of the wave-4 pivot predicted a good pull-back WPT level

Thoughts:
Trading is about maximizing the Risk/Reward (IE larger wins and controlled risk losses) per trade and therefore you should not take every trade that comes down the pike but aim towards the one's with the highest R/R

In terms of Elliot Wave that would be trading off the end of Wave-2 to catch the "largest" potential impulsive Wave-3

I would like to be able to Back or Forward test the "End of Wave-5" trades to get an average R/R

The big question is over time are you better off just trading the Wave-3 or can the End of Wave-5 be just as profitable or even more profitable.

A member of the weekly (M-W-F) MTPredictor Trading Webinars ...I believe trades primarily the "Holy-Grail Wave-3"trade
The return has been an average R/R of 4.8 !!

Attached Thumbnails
MTP-21mar12-tf06-12-time-frame-comp.jpg  
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