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the sloppy trader

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  #1 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Ok so What makes this journal possibly different then others is the timing in my life which it is made.

A bit of quick history.

1. Started looking at trading last year.

2. Searched through many entry signals and could not find one that was relevant.

3. Stumbled across Andrews pitch fork and fine tuned it for a period of several months before trading. (Should be noted that this was the ONLY "tool" I looked in to as it was the only one that made sense). I Feel I have a much higher then average understanding of it. I find it is the best tool that shows resistance and support and can account for ALL market movement

6. Started day trading with a prop firm.

7. Lost my pants.

8. Realized there was something I'm not seeing

9 Usuing my information filtering techniques ( Same as the ones that led me to to Andrews fork) I tried to find a possible answer on line.

10 Found that by analysing my my entry's and exits I could discover what percent of the time i was right or wrong and adjust my risk to reward entries.

So Here we are in the present, one of my favourite time frames or at least it used to be.
I am now finding a way that i can use my forks IN THE SAME WAY each time. This will allow me to different ways to judge what entry and exit is best using the fork. A fork can be used a few ways in different time frames, in conjunction with other tools like "price action" one can use them for break outs or to go with the trend and each fork has a different relevance based on how many times a line was touched.

WHAT IS A FORK?

Think of it as an easier and earlier way to draw a channel based on very limited information. It is essentially a way to use micro movements such as a pulse to predict long term moves. an hour or two of information can be enough to "predict days of information.

WHERE HAVE YOU USED IT RECENTLY

I use it every day on every move. but more specifically it was used in finding the top 1900 or gold where we it touched the upper line. also even more recently we saw a low on gold that bounced off the bottom line. since that bounce of the bottom ( i think it was the day before new years around) we have only seen price go up.

In contrast I have also used it to find when trends will come to and end. Netflix was my study ground for the fork. it was just an upward trend. Using a new Technic I discovered that that Netflix would have a big fail.
For now you will not hear much about that but it would be nice if my learning brought me back to it

WHERE AM I NOW AND WHAT DO I PLAN TO DO

Right now I am the worlds most sloppy trader. At any given time i can find a reason to enter a trade. I used to make over 100 trades a day some times all based on forks on a micro tick chart level. I did this all on one chart the SPY.

What I plan to do is categorize my trades. and see which ones are more profitable.
Use different stocks so as to find the best time to enter instead of entering all the time on the same chart.
Also I may add another indicator or something to double my chances.
The first step in all of this is screening for stocks.

What I did today was a quick screen on think or swim software and pulled out some stocks. s and p high volume. filtering out anything that was at the ends of % increase bell cures this led me to a bunch of stocks. Out of that i went in the month,weekly, hourly of each one and drew in 1-2 forks for each time period.

Also i customized the forks (colors ect) to indicate what value each one has to me.

So that is the first little bit of work i have done to but some organisation to my work. Id say i ended up with about 10 charts that i liked and represented my forks well.

looking forward the goal is now to refine my search parameters (you will find that i am not tech savy)and have great difficulty with this besides scaning for volume and %increase.From there find a way to test different types of entrys this may be done in real time as back testing sounds to tech advanced for me.

jotting down what entry's yield what % return and what % of those entrys work.

Possibly adding something to reconfirm entry

and god knows what after that.

Any ways, if indeed people are participating i will continue . In the even this thread is not read for years and gets burried you can always try pm me. I enjoy my private messages and one should not hesitate to send one

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  #3 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Now I am aware that i am going about all this the hard way, A Fork, or any drawing for that matter, is probably the hardest way to screen. It involves alot of manual work. even while doing that work one has to do his research (or her) in a way that is the same each time.

This is a very hard task. People tend to like changing the way they look at there drawings. maybe you wont use that pivote high as it was in the after hours and just does not fit well. or maybe this time you will use it.

A much simpler way to screen would be to find stocks nearing there x moving average or a crossover of moving averages and then maybe scan through those to find ones that are over bought and over sold.

Yes you are right. and I do see that such a system like that could be as valid as anything else. Also it it easy to scan and find I would imagine.

So why the fork?

It is actually the wrong step, I'm aware of this, but It is hard to leave behind all that i have learnt to this point. maybe After this little test of the fork I will drop it or even if it works i may add other systems.

I am going down the path less taken. but i must say that through this site, for the first time, I have seen people that seem to be trading in a way similar to what I am doing, I really hope to get some advice from these people while sharing my learnings. Through this site I have come across medianline.com I really like this site for many reasons not only the information.

I have also seen a few others that use this type of system.
Any ways I will try to post some pics of the charts and how i drew similar forks on different time frames for each one. once i figure out how to post a pic.

I know my writing at times can be hard to follow so if you need anything cleared up let me know

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  #4 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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also, any guidance from profitable traders will be appreciated as I am writing this journal as i develope my trading plan it could be implemented. Help in software and risk to reward ratios or any calculations would be where my weak point is and i have yet to get in to that besides the above mentioned screen which i would like to have better parameters.

I use think or swim as my charting as it is free and I find it to be one of the best platforms for anyone who relys heavily on drawings. to place my orders I use sterling trader. I know nothing about Sterling besides putting in a market order.

It should be noted that forks on think or swim have a bad habit of moving around when time frames are changed. Many wont realize this but i can always show an example of this. I try my best to work around by color coating my forks so that i know what time frame they were draw in.

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 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
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traitor786 View Post
Ok so What makes this journal possibly different then others is the timing in my life which it is made.

A bit of quick history.

1. Started looking at trading last year.

2. Searched through many entry signals and could not find one that was relevant.

3. Stumbled across Andrews pitch fork and fine tuned it for a period of several months before trading. (Should be noted that this was the ONLY "tool" I looked in to as it was the only one that made sense). I Feel I have a much higher then average understanding of it. I find it is the best tool that shows resistance and support and can account for ALL market movement

6. Started day trading with a prop firm.

7. Lost my pants.

8. Realized there was something I'm not seeing

9 Usuing my information filtering techniques ( Same as the ones that led me to to Andrews fork) I tried to find a possible answer on line.

10 Found that by analysing my my entry's and exits I could discover what percent of the time i was right or wrong and adjust my risk to reward entries.

So Here we are in the present, one of my favourite time frames or at least it used to be.
I am now finding a way that i can use my forks IN THE SAME WAY each time. This will allow me to different ways to judge what entry and exit is best using the fork. A fork can be used a few ways in different time frames, in conjunction with other tools like "price action" one can use them for break outs or to go with the trend and each fork has a different relevance based on how many times a line was touched.

WHAT IS A FORK?

Think of it as an easier and earlier way to draw a channel based on very limited information. It is essentially a way to use micro movements such as a pulse to predict long term moves. an hour or two of information can be enough to "predict days of information.

WHERE HAVE YOU USED IT RECENTLY

I use it every day on every move. but more specifically it was used in finding the top 1900 or gold where we it touched the upper line. also even more recently we saw a low on gold that bounced off the bottom line. since that bounce of the bottom ( i think it was the day before new years around) we have only seen price go up.

In contrast I have also used it to find when trends will come to and end. Netflix was my study ground for the fork. it was just an upward trend. Using a new Technic I discovered that that Netflix would have a big fail.
For now you will not hear much about that but it would be nice if my learning brought me back to it

WHERE AM I NOW AND WHAT DO I PLAN TO DO

Right now I am the worlds most sloppy trader. At any given time i can find a reason to enter a trade. I used to make over 100 trades a day some times all based on forks on a micro tick chart level. I did this all on one chart the SPY.

What I plan to do is categorize my trades. and see which ones are more profitable.
Use different stocks so as to find the best time to enter instead of entering all the time on the same chart.
Also I may add another indicator or something to double my chances.
The first step in all of this is screening for stocks.

What I did today was a quick screen on think or swim software and pulled out some stocks. s and p high volume. filtering out anything that was at the ends of % increase bell cures this led me to a bunch of stocks. Out of that i went in the month,weekly, hourly of each one and drew in 1-2 forks for each time period.

Also i customized the forks (colors ect) to indicate what value each one has to me.

So that is the first little bit of work i have done to but some organisation to my work. Id say i ended up with about 10 charts that i liked and represented my forks well.

looking forward the goal is now to refine my search parameters (you will find that i am not tech savy)and have great difficulty with this besides scaning for volume and %increase.From there find a way to test different types of entrys this may be done in real time as back testing sounds to tech advanced for me.

jotting down what entry's yield what % return and what % of those entrys work.

Possibly adding something to reconfirm entry

and god knows what after that.

Any ways, if indeed people are participating i will continue . In the even this thread is not read for years and gets burried you can always try pm me. I enjoy my private messages and one should not hesitate to send one

Nice title, you caught my attention....Well Done

Doesnt matter if you use a fork or spoon whatever helps you see price action and how it moves! Watch Cat or Appl they trend clean it'll be a good start. Doesnt matter if they are a higher price because your using demo, add a 20ema to your chart watch how PA moves towards and away from it. Check out Thinkscriptor for some cool Ma codes. And post a picture of your chart with trades. Really it all comes down to you seeing PA and trading with the trend, up is up down is down.

100 trades a day I remember those days!

Just my 2cents, and last but not least all indicators are LAGGING, trade off of PA backed up with a indicator

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  #6 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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not sure if this is the best way to post a pic but here you can see forks usually there are 1 or 2 per time frame.
So far forks are not drawn by the accumulation area but rather by relative high and lows. i think the other chart is gold, this shows how the trend was not violated if it is indeed the 10 year view one. If it is then it would be important to note that this fork was drawn way before we hit the 1900 mark it was done closer to a year ago where everything "was on track" for gold

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  #7 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Sorry, the above gold chart was a more recent zoom in to the post new year. Here is the multi year trend line again this was originally drawn at the beginning of the year. I don't day trade gold but have along position in it. Yes I could of sold at 1900 but then i would of ended up having my savings in cash which I do not like. so i held on and will untill the trend is broken to the bottom. in which case i will have another look at how things are happening.

In 2007 we had a break of an older fork i would imagine but this break represented an accumulation area that produced an even steeper up trend. so i may even hod through a break of the lower trend line. This is more a long term thing. You will hear me say a lot about gold as it is one of my passions but I have yet to day trade it. I hope you enjoy the above chart

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 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
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traitor786 View Post



not sure if this is the best way to post a pic but here you can see forks usually there are 1 or 2 per time frame.
So far forks are not drawn by the accumulation area but rather by relative high and lows. i think the other chart is gold, this shows how the trend was not violated if it is indeed the 10 year view one. If it is then it would be important to note that this fork was drawn way before we hit the 1900 mark it was done closer to a year ago where everything "was on track" for gold

Add a 20ema repost, I feel like Im outside looking up at the stars trying to draw the big dipper, im just kidding. I KNOW nothing about using the fork I see some lines where price pulls away. How many ticks, pts or cents are you trying to get using the fork method.

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 Rad4633 
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traitor786 View Post


Sorry, the above gold chart was a more recent zoom in to the post new year. Here is the multi year trend line again this was originally drawn at the beginning of the year. I don't day trade gold but have along position in it. Yes I could of sold at 1900 but then i would of ended up having my savings in cash which I do not like. so i held on and will untill the trend is broken to the bottom. in which case i will have another look at how things are happening.

In 2007 we had a break of an older fork i would imagine but this break represented an accumulation area that produced an even steeper up trend. so i may even hod through a break of the lower trend line. This is more a long term thing. You will hear me say a lot about gold as it is one of my passions but I have yet to day trade it. I hope you enjoy the above chart

Better chart, so your using it for long term trades meaning months?

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traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Thanks for the info. I had actually started off my learning with netflix its chart back then was a clean uphill road much like gold. i will add cat and appl and add them to the mix. I am thinking of adding moving averages or Fibonaccis to the charts they are crowded as it is but a moving average could me good to take note of on a spread sheet to see if my trades that correspond with the ma turn out to be more profitable.

The thing i don't like about them as there never seems to be any relevant action around them like there is with a fork but i get the picture.

Funnny thing about crowded charts. Im convinced that many people drop such drawings as they fill up the chart too much.. or maybe they just lower the amount of drawings. Its funny cause im sure many people have lost money on them and kept them. they only drop them cause it fills up the charts as mine seem to be doing already on my first day of using this system. does it make sense to drop some thing because it impedes your view over dropping it cause you blew your account ?

Its funny you mention price action, from what i gather this means looking at the formation of candles, a large candle with a big body means movement while long wicks with small bodies show resistance. and i know there is more to look at.
The funny thing about price action if you tear it down to there esentials what it actually is doing is reading the smaller time frame chart. you are looking in the candle to see what happened to price. it went up fast opened low and closed near its low.. on a smaller time frame chart this would be represented by a move up followed by a reversal.

In this case would it not be more easier and accurate to just take a look at the tick or 1 min chart ?

Thank you for your post im adding apple and CAT

Also I am not paper trading. I am live trading on sterling trader. i have taken a few days off to develop this plan and will try my best not to trade while doing so. I know this is more important but i really miss trading already. Maybe if i see a clear entry ill take it as it is also the best way to get data on my trades since i have no idea how to back test.

thanks for your responce i will try to post the CAT and apple pics soon maybe you will be willing to contradict my forks



Rad4633 View Post
Nice title, you caught my attention....Well Done

Doesnt matter if you use a fork or spoon whatever helps you see price action and how it moves! Watch Cat or Appl they trend clean it'll be a good start. Doesnt matter if they are a higher price because your using demo, add a 20ema to your chart watch how PA moves towards and away from it. Check out Thinkscriptor for some cool Ma codes. And post a picture of your chart with trades. Really it all comes down to you seeing PA and trading with the trend, up is up down is down.

100 trades a day I remember those days!

Just my 2cents, and last but not least all indicators are LAGGING, trade off of PA backed up with a indicator


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  #11 (permalink)
traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Rad4633 View Post
Better chart, so your using it for long term trades meaning months?

no in this case its decades unless i see a break of the trend. i really wish though that i had accumulated at the bottom line and sold at the top line but its a long term investment not a trading plan. there is however an exit but in general, it will be used to the same degree one would exit there cash positions.

maybe after a while i will trade it also. or at least short it to off dips in my long term plan. but for now i am sticking to stocks if that fails then i may trade it but its all the same in the end. If we don't break the bottom line we will be back to 1900 soon

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traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Rad4633 View Post
Better chart, so your using it for long term trades meaning months?


Ok here are those stars. It takes 3 points (or stars) to make a fork. the option of using 4 is just not there.

so no matter how you go about it one of these points were not chosen. price just reversed at the point.

Luckily the 3 points needed are the first 3 a b and c . the last high (like in teh gold chart) ended up there without my selecting it to be there.

This should give an idea of the relevance here. Sure you can say its all clear in hindsight. but i really dont see another way to draw this fork do you .

as far as how many points im trying to get, that would fall under risk management which has yet to be discussed but typically in my old messy fashion i am trying to make a million dollars on my first trade of the day and loose 100 dollars on all the bad trades. at least that is my intention while im taking my morning shower.

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traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Here is a weekly view of CAT you can see it has indeed followed its forks well. Small forks (pink) were only broken when they came to the larger long term fork (red) there was a slight mentioned leak at when we crossed the red dotted median line. besides that it is perfect.

Also, if you look closely you can see a new grey fork being made without the use of the third point. some times i am good at this. in this case i am NOT, its just an estimate of the earliest possible resistance.

Typically this grey fork (which could easly be a cm higher) would be broken as price is supposedly supposed to go back to the top red line. but when drawn correctly it should represent some resistance.

I will also try to post my hourly or 5 min chart .

I really dont want to go to far in to proving the merit of the fork as an entry signal can be wrong 30% of the time and money can still be made. Also, note that CAT was not chosen by preference. It was mentioned by the previous poster today and i drew these right away so this is equivilant to picking a stock out of a hat for me and it may even be a chart i dont like..

anyways i will post a shorter time frame of this just for fun and then continue my progress

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traitor786
montreal
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Ok so on the hourly chart there really is no play, though price has extended to the right, it has done so by partys playing 3 forks.

That has left price staying within all these 3 forks making things very hard to see. I would not place a trade based on these forks and do not like it even on my journal but in all fairness this is an example of a fork at its most confusing.

here we see 3 possible forks this gives us 6 outer lines and 3 median lines. Not only does this make things difficult but it also may devide moves by 3. Assuming that 3 groups are playing these forks.

Price right now it satisfying all the 3 forks that is squeezing price in to a triangle or 3. Typical Price action people will see a triangle fomration soon here unless we break out fast.

its funny how non fork people look at triangles and head and shoulders. where fork people see them in a bigger light and maybe have better targets. but as they come about in these complex scenarios i imagine both parts are really gambling with a slight edge and are both equally lost possibly the fork guy is more confused by knowing too much here.

I can see a potential traingle form before most but dont like to trade them as of yet.

price may not coil in to the triangle formation here but once one line is breached there will be a little action. or it could coil back and forth and we see the same action thsi will happen typically before the triagle points meet

if i were to bet id bet the red fork upwards but this is more based on the longer time frame .

to be clear there is no entry here untill one fork has been chosen

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 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
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traitor786 View Post



Ok so on the hourly chart there really is no play, though price has extended to the right, it has done so by partys playing 3 forks.

That has left price staying within all these 3 forks making things very hard to see. I would not place a trade based on these forks and do not like it even on my journal but in all fairness this is an example of a fork at its most confusing.

here we see 3 possible forks this gives us 6 outer lines and 3 median lines. Not only does this make things difficult but it also may devide moves by 3. Assuming that 3 groups are playing these forks.

Price right now it satisfying all the 3 forks that is squeezing price in to a triangle or 3. Typical Price action people will see a triangle fomration soon here unless we break out fast.

its funny how non fork people look at triangles and head and shoulders. where fork people see them in a bigger light and maybe have better targets. but as they come about in these complex scenarios i imagine both parts are really gambling with a slight edge and are both equally lost possibly the fork guy is more confused by knowing too much here.

I can see a potential traingle form before most but dont like to trade them as of yet.

price may not coil in to the triangle formation here but once one line is breached there will be a little action. or it could coil back and forth and we see the same action thsi will happen typically before the triagle points meet

if i were to bet id bet the red fork upwards but this is more based on the longer time frame .

to be clear there is no entry here untill one fork has been chosen

Basically your channel trading, with this method I think you already should see price action and know the general direction. Only problem you have to overcome is when price reverses suddenly and breaks the trend you need to know when to bail. I think you need to concentrate on your entry and exits, fibs are useful and it works with your type of trading. You have to trade trending instruments otherwise chop will kill your good days and turn ur account negative. Learn to read these days and dont trade or trade very little 1-2 trades tops.

Start looking at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT this way if PA pulls back from your trend line you can get out and live to trade another day. Also look to the left see support and resistance this will help you greatly for ie, If you see alot of resistance to the left and PA is approaching that area, you could sell and bank profits rather than chance a reversal.

You've actually got a good chart setup, its clean you see PA fine, you dont have any distracting indicators.you just need to develop and refine what works for you. Glance around here on futures.io (formerly BMT) you'll find your missing pieces. If you look and read the info is here. Money management is another area to look at(I recently got schooled on this one) and your mental game has to be clear and focused.

Good Luck



All in all I think you just have to start reading the market, its better to take a smaller piece of move rather than the whole move, especially until you get a better feel for the market.

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traitor786
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Ok,

So those previous forks were made to show you the relevance of a fork. If you have any questions about forks let me know.

Since this is something I'm trying to reproduce in an unemotional way, what I did was delete those and only put in the ones that are relevant now. The 3 fork thing was pulled out, and all that remains forks that are still intact and relevant. the pink forks that were broken were also taken out.

While doing this, I did notice that there was a point where I had a 2 fork possibility. One that I included was based on pivot highs and lows. Which is the system im using, the other was a bit more complex where I use only the accumulation point which I did not include. What was interesting is that when there is a multiple fork possibility, what may be a high probability trade is to, assume the one that is currently showing resistance breaks to continue to the other fork. I know its complicated but down the line if I remember I will keep an eye out for this and explain better.

For now, I'm using more simple unemotional forks that can easily be seen.

So this is what i did with about 10 charts and will consider them my universe for the time being.

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traitor786
montreal
 
 
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So what your saying is to buy when price hits the lower channel but also to look at at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT (not sure what dt is but will look it up) then to look to the left for resistance.

by alot of resistance i imagine you mean a horizontal line that connects many pivots ?


What i think your getting at is basically to to place my stop based on previous highs or lows.



Rad4633 View Post
Basically your channel trading, with this method I think you already should see price action and know the general direction. Only problem you have to overcome is when price reverses suddenly and breaks the trend you need to know when to bail. I think you need to concentrate on your entry and exits, fibs are useful and it works with your type of trading. You have to trade trending instruments otherwise chop will kill your good days and turn ur account negative. Learn to read these days and dont trade or trade very little 1-2 trades tops.

Start looking at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT this way if PA pulls back from your trend line you can get out and live to trade another day. Also look to the left see support and resistance this will help you greatly for ie, If you see alot of resistance to the left and PA is approaching that area, you could sell and bank profits rather than chance a reversal.

You've actually got a good chart setup, its clean you see PA fine, you dont have any distracting indicators.you just need to develop and refine what works for you. Glance around here on futures.io (formerly BMT) you'll find your missing pieces. If you look and read the info is here. Money management is another area to look at(I recently got schooled on this one) and your mental game has to be clear and focused.

Good Luck



All in all I think you just have to start reading the market, its better to take a smaller piece of move rather than the whole move, especially until you get a better feel for the market.


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traitor786
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So there are too many possible entrys on these charts. i will try to think of them and keep track of which entrys preforms how.

1. mutiple fork possibility incuding accumulation fork where we would assume a break out to other fork.
2. hitting the bottom or top of the fork (solid line)
3. playing resistance based on time fork for a small imeidiat gain.
4 all the above in different time frames.
5. playing a reversal at multi pivots intersection. or a power point.
6 look for weakness in spy qqq bkx and short stocks that i feel will go down
7 Look at how previous trends that were broken and not on my charts played out and assign a rating to how well a stock follows a trend and play those

these are my areas of interest. i will scroll through my stocks and wait for price to hit one of these areas and then see what happens. This is what I used to play. mostly in the tick chart though. I understand that i need a secondary reason to enter the trade. While doing this I reference previous horizonatl resistance lines to place stops

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traitor786
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This is where I may have too much on my plate and I have to keep track of each trade and the reason i got in. Keeping track is a sloppy traders pet peeve along with software, and calculating. But I will try my best.
No wonder I've avoided this for so long.

I'm just thinking that I may be trying too many things at the same time here?

What would my odds be of just one of these being profitable?

Myself, I don't know. Thats why I feel like trying them all at the same time. With only 10 stocks to choose from it may not be that hard?

What do you think ?

Do you think that just sticking to one of these systems such as buying at the touch of fork line while looking at price action and resistance area woul yield a 50 % chance of being profitable?

HOW RARE ARE PROFITABLE SETUPS ?

By profitable i dont mean it works 60% of the time. it could work 30% but have a 5:1 reward risk ratio.

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JasonJ
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The Kelly formula is a strategy optimization formula referanced in the book "Quantitave Trading: How to build your own algorithmic business.". Portfolio optimization strategies made for individual securities within a diversified portfolio can be applied to individual strategies within a diversified portfolio (of unique strategies). Look at your strategies as the securities, and weed out what is bogging you down.

Full disclosure: I read about the Kelly formula a few nights ago and have not had the chance to confirm or deny the quality; But I have used similar derivatives in some of my advanced microeconomic theory classes. It is sort of like a Cobb-Douglas production function.

Good Luck!

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 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
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traitor786 View Post
So what your saying is to buy when price hits the lower channel but also to look at at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT (not sure what dt is but will look it up) then to look to the left for resistance.

by alot of resistance i imagine you mean a horizontal line that connects many pivots ?


What i think your getting at is basically to to place my stop based on previous highs or lows.


DT+double top, Bingo you got it!

In your last thread, you are way over thinking things, use ur fork and HH<HL<LL<LH<DT there is a code in TOS that will plot them as they form on your chart, Might be called Price Swings etc. In the beginning NO dont place your stops at top or bottom of your lines because price might not get there(but it"ll get close be safe come in a little. And really your fork system isnt bad on chop days use the big fork shoot it from left to right on your screen once highs and lows are defined then use your smaller fork to scalp. You ve got the basics no one is going to tell you A,B,C to trading you ve got to get it from here.

I actually like your big dipper technique , its similar to mine

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 Rad4633 
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JasonJ View Post
The Kelly formula is a strategy optimization formula referanced in the book "Quantitave Trading: How to build your own algorithmic business.". Portfolio optimization strategies made for individual securities within a diversified portfolio can be applied to individual strategies within a diversified portfolio (of unique strategies). Look at your strategies as the securities, and weed out what is bogging you down.

Full disclosure: I read about the Kelly formula a few nights ago and have not had the chance to confirm or deny the quality; But I have used similar derivatives in some of my advanced microeconomic theory classes. It is sort of like a Cobb-Douglas production function.

Good Luck!

Geez would this be considered SPAM in a forum

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 Rad4633 
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traitor786 View Post




Ok here are those stars. It takes 3 points (or stars) to make a fork. the option of using 4 is just not there.

so no matter how you go about it one of these points were not chosen. price just reversed at the point.

Luckily the 3 points needed are the first 3 a b and c . the last high (like in teh gold chart) ended up there without my selecting it to be there.

This should give an idea of the relevance here. Sure you can say its all clear in hindsight. but i really dont see another way to draw this fork do you .

as far as how many points im trying to get, that would fall under risk management which has yet to be discussed but typically in my old messy fashion i am trying to make a million dollars on my first trade of the day and loose 100 dollars on all the bad trades. at least that is my intention while im taking my morning shower.

Try this use your chart above, set to 3 or 5 min add a 8ema and a 20sma or ema, use your pitchfork on smaller time frame A B C points along with MA I think you ll like what you see.

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traitor786
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damn seems like my post wasn't uploaded or deleted

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 Rad4633 
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traitor786 View Post
damn seems like my post wasn't uploaded or deleted

Dont follow you, but Ive been playing around with your fork, it will work you need to have another mean(another guide line on your charts thats why I suggested the MA's......Also when you pull the ABC points if price action doesnt run with it, keep trying the fork with MA shows you chop if you read it right wait till ABC line up with PA and run with the trend....

Hope this helps

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traitor786
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ok well i guess i didnt upload it?

basically CAT out preformed the market with gains for the for the day when the market was down.

i had tried to post my thoughts on this.

Anways.

What I did was assign a number to where in a fork price was currently yesturday and where it ended up today.

So if it was at the bottom of a pitch fork ( the lower parallel line) i would say it was at 0 % if it was at the median i would say it was at 50% and at the top i would say 100%

I wrote a percentage for each fork in each time frame. Based on previous days bars and also where we ended up today.

so i am trying to make a chart with colomns like:

monthly fork: 20% heading towards median : hit median next day50%
weekly fork 40% heading towards 2 intersecting medians :hit median today 50%
daily ........

Honestly the whole thing is a mess its really hard to assign a number to everything i see, i keep adding in columns like "multi fork" and such.

The whole thing is a huge headache. I will have to look at each chart in every time frame make a note of it and then proceed to update any broken charts. So each stock would need 3-5 views and then keep track of it.

Now the other issue is the moving lines. Let me explain a bit.

when i draw a fork in say a daily chart one of my lines clearly cross todays bar, when i have a look at the 5 min daily chart there is no line going through it . the line is well below the days range. and in the hourly chart the price could be above the days range.


It is interesting that it may be possible that these lines are some how still valid even though placed incorrectly some how.

I would love to do a test with people that use other platforms and even people that use think or swim to see if it is a universal problem.

If you would like to test let me know i will post an example that you could duplicate.

the other issue is that i cant really play monthly or weekly lines as i just cant trust the lines. i have to look at them in the monthly view which is really hard.

i saw some posts above that could siplify things quite a bit
thank you

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traitor786
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I'm a bit curious about this moving average and fork . it would make things a bit more smooth as i could screen by moving average.

also the fact that tos may be able to find pivotes could mean that my forks could be put in automatically and unemotionally. these both would help in keeping track and screening.

but i fear something very special to me would be lost.

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 Rad4633 
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traitor786 View Post
ok well i guess i didnt upload it?

basically CAT out preformed the market with gains for the for the day when the market was down.

i had tried to post my thoughts on this.

Anways.

What I did was assign a number to where in a fork price was currently yesturday and where it ended up today.

So if it was at the bottom of a pitch fork ( the lower parallel line) i would say it was at 0 % if it was at the median i would say it was at 50% and at the top i would say 100%

I wrote a percentage for each fork in each time frame. Based on previous days bars and also where we ended up today.

so i am trying to make a chart with colomns like:

monthly fork: 20% heading towards median : hit median next day50%
weekly fork 40% heading towards 2 intersecting medians :hit median today 50%
daily ........

Honestly the whole thing is a mess its really hard to assign a number to everything i see, i keep adding in columns like "multi fork" and such.

The whole thing is a huge headache. I will have to look at each chart in every time frame make a note of it and then proceed to update any broken charts. So each stock would need 3-5 views and then keep track of it.

Now the other issue is the moving lines. Let me explain a bit.

when i draw a fork in say a daily chart one of my lines clearly cross todays bar, when i have a look at the 5 min daily chart there is no line going through it . the line is well below the days range. and in the hourly chart the price could be above the days range.


It is interesting that it may be possible that these lines are some how still valid even though placed incorrectly some how.

I would love to do a test with people that use other platforms and even people that use think or swim to see if it is a universal problem.

If you would like to test let me know i will post an example that you could duplicate.

the other issue is that i cant really play monthly or weekly lines as i just cant trust the lines. i have to look at them in the monthly view which is really hard.

i saw some posts above that could siplify things quite a bit
thank you

It'll all come together, I ran across another guy using the pitchfork method, search his thread I think you ll get alot of info there,

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 Rad4633 
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let me start off by saying ur the first Ive replied to in this way. Its up to you to see what the chart is telling you, hope my chart helps you in some way>>>>> Look at my chart, dont look at the bars etc look at the white dotted 20sma, each of the pitchforks that are straight up didnt line up with PA in the channel and the 20MA is flat wavy, means chop the first fork drew on at 11:07 would have worked but it reversed, I always wait till after it crosses and goes positive to go long, you see on the second @ 4:25 it started in the middle of channel,20 going up PA has crossed 20 then it climbs breaks the fork mean, then you have two options exit on red bar which the dark grey is resistance on my chart or wait till it breaks lower band which could have happened at 6:55 is it had reversed, ur chart will be different from mine but this will give you something to go off of.

Also there is MA on the bottom of mine charts just a FYI, I really trade off a tick chart along with this one, this one shows you direction a little better but I read PA off my tick

Check out the other thread, Good Luck with your quest

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traitor786
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Rad4633 View Post
It'll all come together, I ran across another guy using the pitchfork method, search his thread I think you ll get alot of info there,

yes i think i saw it and he had a site. it was interesting with alot of info but didnt go in to how to work on the risk to reward ratio and how to keep track of trades. it is the this that im trying to accomplish. the actual entry is not as important but i must say that i am seeing new things by forcing myself to look at multiple time frames

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traitor786
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Rad4633 View Post
let me start off by saying ur the first Ive replied to in this way. Its up to you to see what the chart is telling you, hope my chart helps you in some way>>>>> Look at my chart, dont look at the bars etc look at the white dotted 20sma, each of the pitchforks that are straight up didnt line up with PA in the channel and the 20MA is flat wavy, means chop the first fork drew on at 11:07 would have worked but it reversed, I always wait till after it crosses and goes positive to go long, you see on the second @ 4:25 it started in the middle of channel,20 going up PA has crossed 20 then it climbs breaks the fork mean, then you have two options exit on red bar which the dark grey is resistance on my chart or wait till it breaks lower band which could have happened at 6:55 is it had reversed, ur chart will be different from mine but this will give you something to go off of.

Also there is MA on the bottom of mine charts just a FYI, I really trade off a tick chart along with this one, this one shows you direction a little better but I read PA off my tick

Check out the other thread, Good Luck with your quest

At a quick glance your forks are drawn prematurely. I will read your post again but if the stars are to represent entries there is no way you can enter that fast or know that that is the point at which the accumulation point will end. but agian i will check it out again .

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traitor786
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your candles are all bodies there are no or very few tails. i cant reproduce this when i pull up this chart i get a bunch of tails.
you have mostly no tails and a few times only one tail




Rad4633 View Post
let me start off by saying ur the first Ive replied to in this way. Its up to you to see what the chart is telling you, hope my chart helps you in some way>>>>> Look at my chart, dont look at the bars etc look at the white dotted 20sma, each of the pitchforks that are straight up didnt line up with PA in the channel and the 20MA is flat wavy, means chop the first fork drew on at 11:07 would have worked but it reversed, I always wait till after it crosses and goes positive to go long, you see on the second @ 4:25 it started in the middle of channel,20 going up PA has crossed 20 then it climbs breaks the fork mean, then you have two options exit on red bar which the dark grey is resistance on my chart or wait till it breaks lower band which could have happened at 6:55 is it had reversed, ur chart will be different from mine but this will give you something to go off of.

Also there is MA on the bottom of mine charts just a FYI, I really trade off a tick chart along with this one, this one shows you direction a little better but I read PA off my tick

Check out the other thread, Good Luck with your quest


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traitor786
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Hi, I'm looking for people that would want to test there software as mine has issues and I have a suspicion that maybe other charting software has the same issues.

All you would have to express your interest. once I have a few people I will give you a chart that you will have to put a line on.

From there we will post pics of the line in different time frames.

I use think or swim and have discovered that my forks move as i change time frames. This is a fact. I will post an example soon.

Now here is the weird part. It seems at a glance that the incorrect forks are actually followed. I'm not sure as I have just started watching it.

What could cause this? Maybe many charting software's have the issue causing many traders to incorrectly place orders?

Who knows.

This is open to any one using any platform. Just let me know what you use (Think of swim users are also welcome).

It would be interesting to see the results.

Even if it is just a Think or swim issue (I'm not sure what volume they account for) but it would be nice to know that maybe your charts are slightly not as accurate as they should be due to people with this issue.

There really is nothing to loose just need like 3 people or so willing to take 5 mins to post a pic. At worst you will at least see the issues that think or swim has.

Thank you for your cooperation

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 Kingpin 
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You totally lost the plot .

Please take a look at your charts .

KISS

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 GridKing 
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the videos in the the first post should prove helpful ....


"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter
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traitor786
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I'm still on track no worries.

(I havent traded this week)

Working on these charts is very uninteresting and time consuming. So im getting a bit sloppy.

CAT was a good call because it said buy in all the time frames. To bad I didnt find it myself.

Cat was also close to a multi median line intersection. (median lines are to be seen as gravity)

When it touched this muti median point it produced a Shooting star on the weekly chart. The intersecting medians were also drawn on the weekly chart. I dont believe a shooting star is a good indicator. but i must say that they produce rarely and when they do it is always in an intresting spot.

Since cat has touched two medians that are on different slopes anything can happen at this point and i would not trade it.

So far I have 8 charts and nothing really standing out. to keep up with all the drawings on all the charts will be a huge undertaking that should yield profits. but i question if i should trt something simpler and automated on the side

AVP had a monthly failure in november and i will keep an eye on it even though I really shouldnt watch a stock and assume that all will do the same thing. This is contradictory to the whole game plan.

Sticking to being contradictory, I have decided, to simplify things, I will simply look for entrys like CAT. Even though I was not certain about CAT.

Today i have no signals

CCL plunged down and opened exactly on its monthly median though after hours was slightly lower. Since it broke out of daily and weekly forks I dont have that info to trade it. Strictly based on the monthly chart it is a buy (with a stop naturally) but this may be something you have to hold for a while due to the missing data.

The spy has a couple of days maybe around a week untill it hits some serious resistance. it is in a triangle formation
connect the low of dec 19 with the low of jan 13 to find the bottom of teh triangle that we should eventually break down in to.

So no calls. It is rare that we see price hit a monthly fork line and to find it while it hits a weekly and a daily let alone hourly and 5 min is a pretty rare thing.

Though CAT was not bought at such a time, it did show bullishness in every time frame.

So this kinda sucks.

Lack of data.

This will go away as time goes on and i add charts to my watch list. but also the work load to keep up with them and adjust them will go up. Also things are becoming vague again. its not numbers but more what i perceive. Though my perception should be consistant. it may not be at times i really dont know.

Now I am lost when it comes to software but i got an email from a company that has a system that makes automated forks.

i have no idea what he is talking about, but i think i can have it hooked up.

They wrote:

Ensign does have Yahoo data and DTN Market Access End-of-Day data.

From what i gather i can hook up ensign to yahoo or something else that is free,

teh software has a demo on it and monthly charge not too much.

Id be trading off all my intuition for traceable data... I hope.

The idea woudl be to have ensign make my forks in my time frames for me and i just scroll through them and find on that meets certain criteria.

This owuld mean that esign would have to pull up forks on a bunch of stocks in the month week and day view and plot them.

hopefully those forks will all show up on the same page. on a system that is as easy to use as think or swim .

Has any one used this?

so alls come to a complete stop.

for now i will try to find some stocks nearing the monthly fork only to save time as they get close to the monthly, i will update weekly and dailys.

hopefully this saves some time.

like my posts my plan has gotten sloppy.

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traitor786
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screening based on volume yielded some help but no stocks were found right at the bottom or top of a fork. rather this brought up stocks that were at the median line. ill keep trying

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traitor786
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Using drawings has its limitations it seems.

Is there no where that one can get a lits of stocks that are hitting the lines of an andrews pitchfork ? or are we expected to keep all our charts up to date every single day and screen through them ?

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traitor786
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BK fell from the daily median to the bottom of the fork.
BTU made a lower low compared to yesterday

CAT's last 12 days showed 11 green bars all going up. today high and low both seem to be lower then yesturday. Confirming that price has founds its median line and is expected to stay around here while it chose which of the 2 medians to follow.

CCL was up about 1 $ from the middle of yesterdays bar.

These are just a few from the ones that i have on my watch list. I will try to add more and post my sentiment for each.

It is important to note that since thus far my minimum time frame is daily charts. I am looking for stocks that have both a higher high and lower low compared to yesterdays bar. I understand that over night trading can actually go up and during the day there can be a sell off that will still show higher highs and lows. but we will fix that up in teh hourly charts when see a stock that we feel we should look at the hourly chart.

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traitor786
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What is needed is a maintained data base of stocks approaching there monthly forks. I understand that this is hard work but i feel it is priceless to fork traders as it is the only true way to screen. I'm all up for posting mine on here as i add ones and alert people when they are hit.

But this would only be done if others participate. In essence we would be sharing the major work between us. But realistically i dought any one would participate as this is more of a messy blog. But if there is interest I would be willing to do it in a more professional way. Again since no one answered my cry to verify if forks on other platforms move around i dought there will be a response. but maybe down the line when im the big mikes trader of the year and have a bunch of people posting potential resistance on my blog some may come here and join me there.

Anyways i will either continue adding charts to my small watchlist or try to get some forking soft ware working.

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traitor786
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seeing as my forks move around a bit its hard to tell. but rimm is about to hit resistance. I cant be precise but i would not be surprised to see it in the next few days. Since it is a monthly chart, it could take a month +

Naturally, we can see a break out.

Weekly and daily charts are more on the neutral end. Since we are day trading it is not a buy at this time. Maybe in the hourly/5min. But we are trying not to enter in there untill monthly weekly and daily confirm together

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traitor786
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OK so I have added to my list of stocks and updated monthly and weekly forks.

Here is the list thus far

aapl
acn
avp
bk
btu
cat
ccl
cfr
cht
cvs - going up to median
entg
esa
gbr
nbg
omx - hiting a weekly fork line
phh
pnfp - hitting a monthly fork line
rimm
slxp - hitting a monthly fork line
sni - hitting a weekly fork line
spy
st
trp
wcg


So as you can see there were 5 that stood out.

But they are not yet tradable. I don't think i can trade inter day off daily and weekly let alone monthly charts. These are just ones to watch out for on the open, if the hourly and 5 min chart look good we will see what happens.

It does not mean im bearish or bullish ( i have not yet marked my sentiment but it is all on the charts) It is very possible that one im bullish on does bad tomorrow . For example OMF bounced off its fork and already had a good run. it closed at its high. opens back at the bottom, highly unlikely, then it may not be a good buy. This is mainly because these 5 show stocks that have ALREADY HIT MY ENTRY, maybe it has to with how i screened to find this universe, but none showed price about to hit my entry.

This makes my calls not what i wanted, but maybe we will see a good probability trade is to buy the second bar after hitting resistance... its important to distinguish between the 2 systems and keep data separate.

I guess it will all depend on price action, market direction and where we open.

Now I must say that none of these showed strong buy signals in all time frames. Because my universe is small, I really had to find stocks that were looking good in 1 time frame and having no bad signs in the other 2 time frames.

Originally, the idea was to find stocks that scream buy in all time frames. With this small selection of stocks, my screening is 1/3 of what it should be. which is a very bad fraction. Hope fully as i add ill be able to be more picky.

I have not traded this week as there was no plan, ill see how tomorrow looks, but realistically, i should not trade till i have some data on paper trading or atleast a nightly review of things. Also as mentioned,these are charts that have already passed the entry point I had in mind by about 1-3 bars.

We will see which are highest % gainers and loosers tomorrow out of my universe and which beat the market if any

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traitor786
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OMX
broke down out of a monthly fork
bounced up off a weekly
had priviously broken down out of the daily and has its last bar high touching daily lower bar that is now resistance


so the monthly does not tell much,
the weekly says we should of bought at the low of the last bar
and the daily says we should of sold at the high of the last bar,

too many conflicting signs but my universe of stocks is small. this one will all depend on the open.

CVS looks a tad more intresting but entry is really late here.

we had previously bounced off a monthly fork and then bounced off a weekly fork, gone through some tuff reistance in november and then broke out. now we are between 2 key median lines and I am forced to assume we will head up and touch the second one. On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days

Again a small universe of stocks.

PNFP

monthly fork: bounced off lower fork in OCT
weekly AND daily fork: last bar was a touch of both these forks lower line.

Its a good set , unfortunatly we are late. last bar (the one that bounced) had a wide range. if it had closed at its low it would of been perfect. but it closed on its high meaning we lost some meat here.

I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long

sxlp.

This one seems to have just touched the upper monthly trend line And touched the weekly forks median
since we had a little bounce of the weekly median, we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here

sni

bounce off monthly
bounce off weekly.. missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy similar to pnfp

so thats what we see thus far. lets see how these 5 trades progress.

there iss too many negatives but we did do some screening which is always a positive

negs.

1 we are entering 1-3 bars too late ! thats terrible !
2. Terrible setups even if we did enter before.. Not a single stock screams buy in all time frames they just wisper neutral, neutral, buy.
3. we are interday trading and we have only looked at daily charts !!!! terrible terrible terrible !

positive:

we are screening and weeded out alot of crap

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traitor786
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SO I traded today. using those specific stocks.

The day started off great. I was quickly up 40 cents just on one of them however another one of the stocks was just giving me trouble,

As i am not used to being able to choose between stocks as previously i only traded the spy refrenceing fas qqq bkx ect

mid day was terrible. The stocks really behaved differently then spy. they just flatten out and trade in a few cent range for ever.

once in while they made a move but then they would flatten again.

Its really boring compared to the the spy. My average hold time on the spy is under a miniute.

where as here, i was in trades for over 10 minutes on average im sure.

price does not run away from you as much then compared with the spy.

nor does it give you a chance to take profits.

maybe it was a bad day fairly flat.


my technique of choosing the stocks based on monthly weekly and daily charts does not translate in to the minute charts.

as it can take a few bars for things to play out and when interday trading you are limited to one daily bar.

maybe i will add hourly and 5 min forks. or only work with hourly and 5min forks.

Im looking at price action and think that al brooks book is the only one i heard of that shows this well. just not sure which book is best of his.

I still think that price action is just a way of looking at a minute or tick chart. but since every one is looking at it shoudl have relevance.

due to the low amount of volume on the stocks as oppoesed to the spy. it was nice to be able to fit todays complete price action on one screen.

i found myself going back to my own ways and trading the minute chart. Due to the low numbers of entrys and limited moves it probably was a good idea.

ended the day down about 10 or 20 cents a share. i was mainly trading 100- 300 shares just as a test.

i think i need to focus more on how the day is looking. maybe see if elliote wave theory can also give me a ruff idea of what is giong on, just in general to get used to how things play out.

It seems i may have a small edge that im not sure how to play. but this edge is too small too often do i place wrong trades.

mainly this was in the mid day. a good 4 hours of struggling to make pennies per share. I should not of even bothered trading during that time or maybe try my hand at range trading.

also another issue was that the stocks seem to open up or down. this maily reflects my expectation. by the time the markets open teh move has been made and i am stuck with flatness. I cant hold over night unfortunately .

I feel as though a trader with no experience can get the same or better results.

somethings missing

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 Rad4633 
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traitor786 View Post
At a quick glance your forks are drawn prematurely. I will read your post again but if the stars are to represent entries there is no way you can enter that fast or know that that is the point at which the accumulation point will end. but agian i will check it out again .

the stars I dont really use the HH,HL etc I use they form as soon as that candle closes, if your right the next one goes in your direction if not they either go away or move with you this is why I use moving averages along with bollinger bands to help read next move. I use your Andrew fork now bc its easier than me drawing channel lines(thanks) Im glad to see your steadfast on your quest, why not look at futures this way you can watch one or two compared to hundreds?

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traitor786
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I slept 3 hours yesturday and crashed a bit today.

Then I woke up and it hit me !

I know I over trade, but that is because I want to make money and the market only gives it to me couple of 5-20 cent moves a day. To achieve a cumilitive 1$ per share is a task in it self that is only done a few days of the month.

There are times when I'm sure things will go my way, we hit clear resistance and the spy does too. It feels like there is a free 10 cent move. A high probability trade. So I take it, and make 10 cents. Then I try to add to that and take less probability trades.

If every day I see 1 perfect entry (with a 10 cent gain) to keep my win % up. I could only take that one trade. Instead of spreading my 10,000 shares over 100 trades (100 trades x 100 shares), I do it one time on the perfect set up

By being cautious, and limiting my risk with low investment, I am actually taking on more risk by taking mediocre trades.

A typical day for me is 100 trades of 100 share (I consider it paper trading). 1-3 of those trades I could bet my life on. The rest I see as 50-50s but are actually under 50 50

My previous results are worse then a new comer because I will take any trade that presents it self and assume, that if I see even the slightest reason to buy, I take it assuming that if I'm correct 60% of the time and use good stop loses Ill be up for the day.

Could that be why I was having difficulty ? Could it be that simple, under exposed and over trading with too high expectations?

I Can be more picky

So I ask you,
How many trades do you make a day ? me 100
How many shares do you buy? me 100 at a time
What is your target for the day ? A billion dollars!
What percent of your time do you spend not "in the market"? me 90%

Now will buying 10,000 shares create liquidity problems, that is to say, will it be the same as buying and selling 100 shares ? or will i have to take 1 cent lose due to slippage?
or will accumulating 10000 shares take the whole range of my swing (entry to target)?

Some slippage is OK, as I will be able to be fully focused on the one trade and enter at the perfect place and have a tighter stop lose.

I'm curious how often the pros trade and what there goal is per share and frequency of trading.

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traitor786
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OK i guess I lost my viewer (few) and no doubt this is to my writing style. Ill try to make it better.

Anyways trading less trades has given me time to find my perfect entry and have tighter stops. Also it helps in looking at new ideas. and keeping track of trades. Im more motivated to do well on a big trade as i know it will make a big difference so I will try to stick with it though I did feel I found that I was still trading too often.

Al brooks book is 90 $ and they dont have it in stock.

I still contend that reading 5 min bars is the same as looking at a tick chart. For example I was reading this technique where you have a large bar that engulfs the next 2 inner bars. and you wait for a break out. on a tick chat this is represented by looking for a higher high to be made. But I still want to get my hands on the book.


So as you know I am new to stocks. I was trading the fas spy ect exclusively.

Many of the stocks I was looking at were just boring as heck ! Part of me wants to go back and trade the spy with this new trading less idea. And I may on a boring day.


Stock selection is hard for me I have no idea how to do it and what to look for. But I have read and noticed that many day traders like you trade "in play stocks"

To me this is a risk. as it means price is making fast movements and may or may not follow resistance.

Why would you want to trade that when you can trade something that is more likely to follow support and resistance? Granted waiting for it to hit can take forever.

Also I finally read some thing that seemed to have a neutral overview of level II. I now understand that the level II in the spy is useless but should have a quick look at it in individual stocks that are in play.

Macro Economics Is a major issue too. I know nothing Besides looking at the SPY FAS QQQ BKX and im really good at noticing the connection between them.

But what's intrestiing is that it seems people always know how the industry of the stock they are buying is doing, and which stock in the industry is getting the money and what industry is hot ect.

This would mean I would mean having a chart of each industry up ?

That general feeling of how the market is doing is absent. what is moving ?

How am I to know? and if it is known that it is moving isnt it too late to get it ?

I mean are we talking about looking for a stock that had some good news and had an x % gain and we are going to try to jump in and hope that we get an x + x % gain ?

I know these are simpler things. But what I am learning is that it is all the simpler stuff that is really effecting me. Even in order entry. It is hard to get good information on simple things.

I tried to find information on how to use sterling trader and I really could not find much besides there manual. You tube only shows the regular set ups and stuff.

How can I find the perfect set up for the day? If i am looking at inplay stocks, I do not have the luxury of pulling up chart that meant certain criteria with all my forks already up. I will have to draw them in. by thsi time any momentum (i would assume) would be done with.

Alot of questions are coming about and each one looks like hours of investigation if not years.

But questions are good. they were absent before.

For now I will hope that since I was close to break even before, trading more selectively may be all I need to cover my fees and stay above break even. Add in some analysing my r:r ratio and win percent and I hopefully I can get in the green consistently. Maybe then I can decide what to learn next whether it be price action, macro economics, how to screen/follow the news, level II, 123 patterns and evidence that a trend is breaking.

If my posts were more organised, I'm sure I would have little tid bits that could be a quick fix to some of my issues until I have time to look more deep in to them.

I have read that al brooks book is a hard read. some say to start in the middle. If I was to ever right a book It would be similar. a bunch of endings followed by a bunch of beginnings and then revised endings with new exceptions followed by a conclusion that many would feel contradicts everything i have written lol.

So if you are reading this one post in this thread for the first time. take my advice and don't go back to read previous posts.

Sloppy traders make bad authors

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 Kingpin 
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Hi again add alechr2

on skype

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traitor786
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So i thought that i would work on selection.

I am considering stopping to use forks in the large time scales and focus more on the daily and under since i am inter day trading. The number of times i get hit by a bigger time frame fork will be low and it will be the cost of doing business for now. Maybe if i see that i trade similar stocks often, i will use all forks.

The time frame is hard to get right though. I never can seem to get the right time frame where i would see teh current trend and the trend that it is occurring in to avoid break outs.

So I bumped in to this after a quick search on google

Stock picks for trending stocks.

It is a screened on his site for me, I dont have good experience with screening and its all done here

" dmTrend is based on Welles Wilder's concept of Directional Movement to identify stocks that are entering a new trend or are already in an established trending pattern."

It uses a d14 indicator (This indicates the percentage of time a stock has had upward directional movement over the last 14 days (this is an accumualted average).

also uses the ADX and ..

A stock is considered to be starting a new uptrend if its' +DI14 crosses above its' -DI14 and the stocks' ADXR is greater than 25.

I think there should be a community of people that make forks and give let us know when a stock is to reverse. Maybe one day ill try to post some up in a more lower time frame then i have before.

Any ways i use think or swim not sure if i can make a screen line this on it. so if the above mentioned site goes down or something im lost. Then again i dont trade off think or swim so i could loose my account there. last week i kept having problems with that was on their end supposedly

The higher the ADX value the better

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traitor786
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Seems like when i look at many stocks that have been on a trend or a few days atleast I notice that the activity in the day does not reflect the trend at all. all the action is in the after hours. Many times during teh day we see small counter trend moves or flat moves. How can a trend trader have any advantage during the day?

There is no time for a trend to develop during the day. All the action that makes up a trend is in the difference between the close and open.

So are all trend traders more like swing traders ?

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traitor786
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I conclude the answer to that question is YES !

It is really hard for me to deviate from my forks. it is all i worked on,

Looking at charts with a fresh open mind. This is now what i see.

Not much.

Inter daily charts are dominated by horizontal resistance based on previous pivots, This is form day traders. AS night falls, the after hour swing traders come in an correct any horizontal movement we let go out of bounds.Also during the day when if we do go out of bounds day time swing traders come in.

When stocks reverse trends (of a few days) It is because longer term swing traders have entered the market.

As a day trader the moves we try to cause have no effect on the momentum of a stock. Since day traders are blind to the greater picture (or just don't bother with it) our movement in the grand scheme of things is flat.

I must say this is very depressing, now all I have to look at is previous areas of resistance and todays high and lows. These areas are key in inter-day reversal and acceleration.

Keeping an eye on the longer term fork helps identify a major reversal. but usually the swing traders get that action as big moves don't happen inter-day.

so. I am left with a few key lines of resistance and a 50 50 possibility we will go up or down. I am starting to sound like a day trader now.

I hate simplicity, but im jumping to the conclusion it is that simple.

So there goes my goal of making billions, and now realistically we are looking at a few cents a trade. Its Ironic cause i feel swing traders make more money in a week or 2 then day traders would.

Anyways lets see how things go and try to build on data to see how probability plays in.

I will continue to bet big on selected resistance points but not based on forks.

KO coca cola imo has reversed .

Many of my other stocks have also came in to play,

The one advantage i have is that my forks will tell me in the event we do get over extended based on longer term time frames. this should reduce those bad trades other day traders may have.

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 vvhg 
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Two things came to my mind when reading your post:

1. If all movement was overnight, all days would be range days. On range days you could make big money if you fade extremes, you could likely make much more as the range of the day, probably even more than the range of a nice trending day.

2. It doesn't matter how much you make per trade (as long as it is not so little that a large part gets eaten by comm and slippage). More important are other stats like RR stdev of profit how much you make per time unit exposed....

Vvhg


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traitor786
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vvhg View Post
Two things came to my mind when reading your post:

1. If all movement was overnight, all days would be range days. On range days you could make big money if you fade extremes, you could likely make much more as the range of the day, probably even more than the range of a nice trending day.

2. It doesn't matter how much you make per trade (as long as it is not so little that a large part gets eaten by comm and slippage). More important are other stats like RR stdev of profit how much you make per time unit exposed....

Vvhg


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well maybe im being a bit harsh and haven't looked at enough charts since this came to light. let me post one up/ you will find that even under a steep sloping channel if we add up all the daily ranges they will only represent a fraction of the actual range.

How many times have you seen at the market close a single bar take out the full range of the day!

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traitor786
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vvhg View Post
Two things came to my mind when reading your post:

1. If all movement was overnight, all days would be range days. On range days you could make big money if you fade extremes, you could likely make much more as the range of the day, probably even more than the range of a nice trending day.

2. It doesn't matter how much you make per trade (as long as it is not so little that a large part gets eaten by comm and slippage). More important are other stats like RR stdev of profit how much you make per time unit exposed....

Vvhg


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no chart needed. lets look at ko coka cola. it just broke out of a down trend the range for the past 3 days has been 1 $

friday most interday traders had no clue we were about to have a reversal. thet were too busy playing there high probability trades.

markets closed, boom 1 bar with a range of 1$ the swing traders get the dollar day trdaers dont get a penny of it, markets ko should open higher then fridays close, its the start of a new trend lets see if price continues its journey up or if day traders are blind to the move, maybe even they will feel the gap up was too big and we should retrace a bit lowering price as it is flying up free of downward pressure.

If we open in the 68.90's it would not suprise me id day traders refrence last firday and monday and keep price flat.

momentum stops dead in its tracks at the openinging bell an then worsens to halt.

Every one is playing ranges . they care not of what the trend it. pull up any 5 min 10 or 15 day chart , you will see flat ness and a bunch of gaps, the gaps are the moves add them up and you will see your trend.

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traitor786
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Some one tell me why inter day traders were so un aggressive on this break out ? we see a struggle all day fold by maybe a 50 cent spike. Then in the after hours swing traders come in and laugh at our move and drive it up another dollar.

IMO day traders are all range trading. sure price can go over resistance but then all we will do is try to go short at the next point of resistance,

as far as we know price can go to a new low. so we stall price movement with our inability to trade diagonal lines. any move through resistance

actually at around 3 pm we see some swing traders try to get there order in before market close. at 3 pm we typically see a correction start occur to where price should be.

So i guess even this 50 cent trade i gave to the day traders was made by the added 3pm volume of swing traders entering.

I really hope we did not belive it was the pro traders coming back from a 3 hour lunch break!

maybe I will see if i can play the 3 pm move with any success


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 vvhg 
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no chart needed. lets look at ko coka cola. it just broke out of a down trend the range for the past 3 days has been 1 $

friday most interday traders had no clue we were about to have a reversal. thet were too busy playing there high probability trades.

markets closed, boom 1 bar with a range of 1$ the swing traders get the dollar day trdaers dont get a penny of it, markets ko should open higher then fridays close, its the start of a new trend lets see if price continues its journey up or if day traders are blind to the move, maybe even they will feel the gap up was too big and we should retrace a bit lowering price as it is flying up free of downward pressure.

If we open in the 68.90's it would not suprise me id day traders refrence last firday and monday and keep price flat.

momentum stops dead in its tracks at the openinging bell an then worsens to halt.

Every one is playing ranges . they care not of what the trend it. pull up any 5 min 10 or 15 day chart , you will see flat ness and a bunch of gaps, the gaps are the moves add them up and you will see your trend.

I had a look, you are right, It doesn't trend well during the day, but I wouldn't call that range bound, I think you put it bettter in yourt last post: it simply stops dead in its tracks! Like paint that never dries! I would simply not trade it. I need a certain tick range covered over the day (don't care about the net range), volatility is just so wonderful....

This is a range day:


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 vvhg 
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traitor786 View Post
.....actually at around 3 pm we see some swing traders try to get there order in before market close. at 3 pm we typically see a correction start occur to where price should be.

So i guess even this 50 cent trade i gave to the day traders was made by the added 3pm volume of swing traders entering. ....

Don't forget all the day traders exiting the market, that will have quite an impact as well.

vvhg

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traitor786
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vvhg View Post
Don't forget all the day traders exiting the market, that will have quite an impact as well.

vvhg

true. but the fact that the movement at the end of the day is the right direction tells me its mostly swing traders. also i have heard many day traders say anything can happen near the close as if it is more random to them. if you look at the 3 pm moves they tend to be going to the closest line.

As for your chart it would be intresting to see a 5 min weekly chart that shows the after hour moves . i agree based on the last day there was little after hours.

This search for volume imo is basically a search for swing traders entering markets.

I wonder if day traders accept that swing traders dominate the market and we are just there in between playing with so few pennies that we need to forget everything and focus mainly on probabilities ? We are just trying to rip one another off untill the swingers come in and tell us how things will go

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traitor786
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Also i see you use a moving average. there is some nice price action around them i can see one point where i would of been stoped out but haven't thought it through.

I have yet to use moving averages and price action. in light of the fact that there may be no use for trends lines during the day i may have start to use them.

I have no idea of where to take profits though looking at the chart.

but Heres a question i often wondered. Firstly around these moving averages there seems to be some hesitation that can have one get stopped out or on the wrong side of the market.

if you simply draw a random line through the chart and just make your moves along the random line would you not get the same results? Also if you do this, you would assume that your line will always be broken as it is not actual resistance. so 90% of the time the line will be breached. with even a 1 to 1 ratio you probably will do much better then a moving average. It seems its all about probabilities. why get in when there is confusion? why not get in when no one is getting in and avoid geting stoped?

I know its a hard pill to swallow. I just had a dose of some pills myself this week.

Its too easy to say it would not work. or that there is no way to be sure price will go to the line (just draw 5 lines)

try your system on a random line see what pops out ?

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 vvhg 
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traitor786 View Post
Also i see you use a moving average. there is some nice price action around them i can see one point where i would of been stoped out but haven't thought it through.

I have yet to use moving averages and price action. in light of the fact that there may be no use for trends lines during the day i may have start to use them.

I have no idea of where to take profits though looking at the chart.

but Heres a question i often wondered. Firstly around these moving averages there seems to be some hesitation that can have one get stopped out or on the wrong side of the market.

if you simply draw a random line through the chart and just make your moves along the random line would you not get the same results? Also if you do this, you would assume that your line will always be broken as it is not actual resistance. so 90% of the time the line will be breached. with even a 1 to 1 ratio you probably will do much better then a moving average. It seems its all about probabilities.....

Yes I do use a moving average, but not that one, that is just in my default template for the simple reason of me being too lazy to delete it from the template....
Also the MA I use, I don't look too closely at it, just use it as a yardstick of how (quickly) price moves....

There is a very interesting thread on random lines: Random Line Theory



traitor786 View Post
why get in when there is confusion? why not get in when no one is getting in and avoid geting stoped?

Well, I would rephrase slightly:
Why not get in where price is likely to move with ease?


Quoting 
try your system on a random line see what pops out ?

I have no system, I just try to trade what I see and to not do anything stupid....

vvhg

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traitor786
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OK so I woke up late today and only started trading around noon. This is all messy but heres how the day went

1.I entered in at 12:40 based on previous horizontal lines ( refered to h lines from now on)

Turned out this was also a median line.

I was on the buy side with 500 shares.

stop was a couple of cents.

2.ko started to fall in a range and i got bored so i placed a few buys and sells based on the narrow range.

made 20 cents doing that.

then it hit the top of the range. and i went short but this is where it took off. in that one move i lost like 19 cents. worse then that was my original buy singnal did not get to play out as i was out.
no problem i was at break even and considering it was my first time range trading i wasnt expecting much. a better knowledge of stops will fix that right up .

I consider my range trades correct.
i consider my initial buy correct.

3.price hit h line and i went short.

4. it went just above top of range h line and i took my profits and bought i think 200 shares


5 sold at the higher h line marked as 5 . wasnt sure to go long or short so i assumed long as i am bullish ko in the long term chart.

6 entered my long just above h line

7. confusion over long term and day traders chose to long , only used 100 shares as was unsure
8 almost stoped out (missed by 1 cent) (stop was moved up to make it a win even if trigered)
9 sold before close for small profit.

traded 500 shares. except the last trade which was 100 shares

profit was 100$ or about 25 cents a share.

In a rush gota head out, will try to make it more clear if need be

but all in all.

I woudl say it was my best day .

all trades were green except the range one i think which could of been avoided with a stop.

It was a super simple. if we count inter range trading i did at step 2 i probably had 8 trades and one was bad due to no stop.

i was up for the day and trading was a piece of cake easiest day ever. didn't focus on any forks. but when was unsure what direction i would go i had a up feeling based on previously looking at forks.

easy easy easy

most stops were about 3 cents and didnt get triggered. the last trade i played with teh stop a bit. i only use trailing stops for now need to change this asap

didnt really care about risk to reward ratios as i just assume not much can go wrong when your often right, you make 20 cents and your stop is 3 cents, i just assumed the numbers worked out

Attachment 60382

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  #62 (permalink)
traitor786
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2 got cut off i think gota run !


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traitor786
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can it ? i mean I will admit that i was on the right side each time and that was 90% luck

but even if i was on the wrong side i was only risking about 3 cents every trade.

Maybe the market and my thoughts just happened to be in line today ?

It was nice to see that previous highs dominated the action. I was deverted with forks but i imagine most people look at previous highs and lows, so why do so many fail ?

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traitor786
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P.S. i think i sold trade #6 above as soon as it hit the dotted median diagonal line.. on the top of the big bar

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traitor786
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Today didnt go as well. Most my trades were on the wrong side. With a 3 cent trailing stop losses were limited.

Then i tried to range trade. so i tried to lower my stop loss to 1 cent. as the range was only 1 cent

Due to not being comfortable with my stops my stops were at 1 cent by default. so every other trade i placed was quickly shorted out. this added to my losses.

Not only this but it also stopped me from gettig the trades i wanted.

At the end of the day i should of went long about 15 mins before the close.

got stoped out at 1 cent and gave up.. this was my move !!! 18 cents could of been gained per share could of been gained.

Yesturday i was on the right side of most trades and today i was on the wrong side and missed my good trade.

Over the 2 days i am still up

something intresting i am starting to notice is that at the end of the day forks seem to dominate the market. and teh last 15 mins or so tries to respect the fork .

maybe my high probability trade is in the mins. ?

how ever unlike i had suspected the forks that are respected are not on the daily charts but rather on the minute or 5 min chart.

ill keep an eye out for this as we move ahead,

My overall sentimate was off today. i was more bullish and was hoping for a turn around. There was none.
It is this overall sentiment that made me money yesturday and made me loose money today.

It makes me favour buy or sell sides.

But what else is there that can help me decide to go long or short at key intervals? If stocks were more volatile then i could try for both knowing that when i indeed was right the benefit would out weigh the couple of orders i put in that were wrong and stopped out .

But often my gain would be a few pennies. and id have to risk a few pennies.

i didnt look at the longer term charts and assumed all forks were intact. Therfore keeping my bullish sentiment. This is wrong cause even the smallest pull back in a daily chart could mean a terrible day on the 5 min or inter day chart.

so i either have to screen for stocks that have volatility or are in play, or find a better way to judge if price will go up or down.

I have only found where there is true resistance thus far,

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traitor786
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Seems like I have alienated my fans. Thought putting up my actual trades would make up for my sloppy posts.
So instead I will edit my post.

Anyway's, if for nothing else, then my own records here it goes.

Firstly I may not trade tomorrow.

If I find I have all the time in the world, I will try to screen for a new stock based on hourly charts.

So what went wrong today.

As mentioned my sentiment was off. This could of been because I did not look at the greater time frames. So I had a look back just now.

These forks were there before I started to trade but I did not see them as I didn't really look at the hourly and my forks tend to move around when i change time frames.

So I had a look back and now realize my fault. Yesterday at the close and after hours and also right at the open we hit the upper fork. this would mean we should of been bearish all day. until we hit the bottom of the red triangle,

Using this bearish "feeling", we should of taken on more shorts then buys,

I know its in retrospect, therefore I truly believe it bears no weight. But we have a bit of an out look for tomorrow now .

Now, we have actually broken the bottom red line. but we did not go through it with momentum. So we are kinda stuck to it but under it. ( I dont try as hard to get the perfect forks so they can easily be off by a bit now)

This can be problematic. Shorting in this area can lead to more sticking to the line and going long can lead to a break or sticking to the red trend line. The proper entry would be at the upper yellow line which is highly unlikely to happen that will lead to a heck of a boring day.

So, what we will do is take on a more risky trade In the unlikely event that we open near the red line again we will copy the red line and bring it down so that it covers all the price action. We will also keep a close eye on price action for a break down and then go short

But in general we should see a break down soon . Any price action higher then this and we should wait for a touch of the upper yellow line

So like my first day trading coke and unlike my second day, I have some sort of out look.
Maybe that is what through me off.

Again this is all on a hourly chart and I will be trading the minute chart. Unfortunately when I switch to the minute chart all my forks and lines will be moved around so I'll try to have both charts open. But this is just a sentiment of what to do near resistance areas. Technically, going long or short should not effect things if we had a stock with some decent range as we would expect to be right half the time but with tight stop losses of 3 cents we should be in the green long term.

If tomorrow doesn't play out and we break above the green line. Then I will say I was wrong. Any area under the upper green fork line is my play. Above we would probably reverse everything.

67.76 is a key area If i do trade I would like to be short before this price, it could easly be the main price of the day if things stay steady

Our low ( if we open around this where we are) is 57.40 to 57.70 as it is a diagonal line

A gap down is possible as we have touched the upper line.

If we hit 57.68 at a specific time, we could see a reversal again only if it happens at the right time. this may also have some volume with it.

Lets see how the day unfolds. Even if I don't trade, we have an out look and it is the out look that was off. We have not looked at the smaller picture and that is inter day price action.

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traitor786
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1. Using median lines as a trading tool (Greg FISHER) - Trading avec les Fourchettes d'Andrews

I will place this here. For further discussion.

This shows what percentage of the time some thing happens in a fork.

I'm wondering if any one has tried this with stocks

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traitor786
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also just a note that the spy is seen to revers around this area ir hit some major resistance this is based on a 1 month chart.
Putting an end to January's trend.

Its hard to see exactly where cause i cant zoom in on the 5 min chart. but i would say either we have arleady begun to trun around or we will a dollar above this todays level which is 132-133

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traitor786
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traitor786 View Post

this is form jan 19th in my journal
CVS looks a tad more intresting but entry is really late here.

we had previously bounced off a monthly fork and then bounced off a weekly fork, gone through some tuff reistance in november and then broke out. now we are between 2 key median lines and I am forced to assume we will head up and touch the second one. On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days

Again a small universe of stocks.

PNFP

monthly fork: bounced off lower fork in OCT
weekly AND daily fork: last bar was a touch of both these forks lower line.

Its a good set , unfortunatly we are late. last bar (the one that bounced) had a wide range. if it had closed at its low it would of been perfect. but it closed on its high meaning we lost some meat here.

I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long

sxlp.

This one seems to have just touched the upper monthly trend line And touched the weekly forks median
since we had a little bounce of the weekly median, we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here

sni

bounce off monthly
bounce off weekly.. missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy similar to pnfp

so thats what we see thus far. lets see how these 5 trades progress.

How did our Jan 19th predictions play out ?

OMX:

We didnt really have a call there so we will skip that one.

CVS

We had said :" On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days"

We have not broken out of Jan 18ths bar all price has been contained within that price range. Considering price was on a rampage going from 36.50 to 43.17 with day after day of gains. Calling neutral was a hard call.

PNFP:

We had said :"I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long "

The day after i wrote this indeed we did see price go up 1$ in a day. and hold there for the follwing 2 days. I have no call here untill we have another jump up confirming we are clear of any resistance. But without looking at the multi time frame charts I will assume we still have some ways to go up

SLXP (was marked as SXLP in error)

We had said: " we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here.

Our stop at 50.28 was not hit, we saw a drop of about 5 $ in 2 days here and stayed around that range today.

SNI
We had said "missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy."

We did not see a new hi above Jan 19th's bar when this prediction was made. There fore there was no entry here.



In general I would say my predictions played out well. There is some space for disagreement sure. But trading is not about being right its about risk to reward ratios. SXLP had a 5 % loss. This would off set any "break even trades"

As mentioned price movement tends to happen in the after hours. I will have a look for myself if any of these plays could of even been taken advantage of in day time trading.

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