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the sloppy trader
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Created: by traitor786 Attachments:13

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the sloppy trader

  #61 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

It worked (with pic)!

OK so I woke up late today and only started trading around noon. This is all messy but heres how the day went

1.I entered in at 12:40 based on previous horizontal lines ( refered to h lines from now on)

Turned out this was also a median line.

I was on the buy side with 500 shares.

stop was a couple of cents.

2.ko started to fall in a range and i got bored so i placed a few buys and sells based on the narrow range.

made 20 cents doing that.

then it hit the top of the range. and i went short but this is where it took off. in that one move i lost like 19 cents. worse then that was my original buy singnal did not get to play out as i was out.
no problem i was at break even and considering it was my first time range trading i wasnt expecting much. a better knowledge of stops will fix that right up .

I consider my range trades correct.
i consider my initial buy correct.

3.price hit h line and i went short.

4. it went just above top of range h line and i took my profits and bought i think 200 shares


5 sold at the higher h line marked as 5 . wasnt sure to go long or short so i assumed long as i am bullish ko in the long term chart.

6 entered my long just above h line

7. confusion over long term and day traders chose to long , only used 100 shares as was unsure
8 almost stoped out (missed by 1 cent) (stop was moved up to make it a win even if trigered)
9 sold before close for small profit.

traded 500 shares. except the last trade which was 100 shares

profit was 100$ or about 25 cents a share.

In a rush gota head out, will try to make it more clear if need be

but all in all.

I woudl say it was my best day .

all trades were green except the range one i think which could of been avoided with a stop.

It was a super simple. if we count inter range trading i did at step 2 i probably had 8 trades and one was bad due to no stop.

i was up for the day and trading was a piece of cake easiest day ever. didn't focus on any forks. but when was unsure what direction i would go i had a up feeling based on previously looking at forks.

easy easy easy

most stops were about 3 cents and didnt get triggered. the last trade i played with teh stop a bit. i only use trailing stops for now need to change this asap

didnt really care about risk to reward ratios as i just assume not much can go wrong when your often right, you make 20 cents and your stop is 3 cents, i just assumed the numbers worked out

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  #62 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

here are the trades

2 got cut off i think gota run !

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  #63 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

Can it really be that easy ?


can it ? i mean I will admit that i was on the right side each time and that was 90% luck

but even if i was on the wrong side i was only risking about 3 cents every trade.

Maybe the market and my thoughts just happened to be in line today ?

It was nice to see that previous highs dominated the action. I was deverted with forks but i imagine most people look at previous highs and lows, so why do so many fail ?

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  #64 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

P.S. i think i sold trade #6 above as soon as it hit the dotted median diagonal line.. on the top of the big bar

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  #65 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

Today didnt go as well. Most my trades were on the wrong side. With a 3 cent trailing stop losses were limited.

Then i tried to range trade. so i tried to lower my stop loss to 1 cent. as the range was only 1 cent

Due to not being comfortable with my stops my stops were at 1 cent by default. so every other trade i placed was quickly shorted out. this added to my losses.

Not only this but it also stopped me from gettig the trades i wanted.

At the end of the day i should of went long about 15 mins before the close.

got stoped out at 1 cent and gave up.. this was my move !!! 18 cents could of been gained per share could of been gained.

Yesturday i was on the right side of most trades and today i was on the wrong side and missed my good trade.

Over the 2 days i am still up

something intresting i am starting to notice is that at the end of the day forks seem to dominate the market. and teh last 15 mins or so tries to respect the fork .

maybe my high probability trade is in the mins. ?

how ever unlike i had suspected the forks that are respected are not on the daily charts but rather on the minute or 5 min chart.

ill keep an eye out for this as we move ahead,

My overall sentimate was off today. i was more bullish and was hoping for a turn around. There was none.
It is this overall sentiment that made me money yesturday and made me loose money today.

It makes me favour buy or sell sides.

But what else is there that can help me decide to go long or short at key intervals? If stocks were more volatile then i could try for both knowing that when i indeed was right the benefit would out weigh the couple of orders i put in that were wrong and stopped out .

But often my gain would be a few pennies. and id have to risk a few pennies.

i didnt look at the longer term charts and assumed all forks were intact. Therfore keeping my bullish sentiment. This is wrong cause even the smallest pull back in a daily chart could mean a terrible day on the 5 min or inter day chart.

so i either have to screen for stocks that have volatility or are in play, or find a better way to judge if price will go up or down.

I have only found where there is true resistance thus far,

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  #66 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

Seems like I have alienated my fans. Thought putting up my actual trades would make up for my sloppy posts.
So instead I will edit my post.

Anyway's, if for nothing else, then my own records here it goes.

Firstly I may not trade tomorrow.

If I find I have all the time in the world, I will try to screen for a new stock based on hourly charts.

So what went wrong today.

As mentioned my sentiment was off. This could of been because I did not look at the greater time frames. So I had a look back just now.

These forks were there before I started to trade but I did not see them as I didn't really look at the hourly and my forks tend to move around when i change time frames.

So I had a look back and now realize my fault. Yesterday at the close and after hours and also right at the open we hit the upper fork. this would mean we should of been bearish all day. until we hit the bottom of the red triangle,

Using this bearish "feeling", we should of taken on more shorts then buys,

I know its in retrospect, therefore I truly believe it bears no weight. But we have a bit of an out look for tomorrow now .

Now, we have actually broken the bottom red line. but we did not go through it with momentum. So we are kinda stuck to it but under it. ( I dont try as hard to get the perfect forks so they can easily be off by a bit now)

This can be problematic. Shorting in this area can lead to more sticking to the line and going long can lead to a break or sticking to the red trend line. The proper entry would be at the upper yellow line which is highly unlikely to happen that will lead to a heck of a boring day.

So, what we will do is take on a more risky trade In the unlikely event that we open near the red line again we will copy the red line and bring it down so that it covers all the price action. We will also keep a close eye on price action for a break down and then go short

But in general we should see a break down soon . Any price action higher then this and we should wait for a touch of the upper yellow line

So like my first day trading coke and unlike my second day, I have some sort of out look.
Maybe that is what through me off.

Again this is all on a hourly chart and I will be trading the minute chart. Unfortunately when I switch to the minute chart all my forks and lines will be moved around so I'll try to have both charts open. But this is just a sentiment of what to do near resistance areas. Technically, going long or short should not effect things if we had a stock with some decent range as we would expect to be right half the time but with tight stop losses of 3 cents we should be in the green long term.

If tomorrow doesn't play out and we break above the green line. Then I will say I was wrong. Any area under the upper green fork line is my play. Above we would probably reverse everything.

67.76 is a key area If i do trade I would like to be short before this price, it could easly be the main price of the day if things stay steady

Our low ( if we open around this where we are) is 57.40 to 57.70 as it is a diagonal line

A gap down is possible as we have touched the upper line.

If we hit 57.68 at a specific time, we could see a reversal again only if it happens at the right time. this may also have some volume with it.

Lets see how the day unfolds. Even if I don't trade, we have an out look and it is the out look that was off. We have not looked at the smaller picture and that is inter day price action.
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  #67 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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1. Using median lines as a trading tool (Greg FISHER) - Trading avec les Fourchettes d'Andrews

I will place this here. For further discussion.

This shows what percentage of the time some thing happens in a fork.

I'm wondering if any one has tried this with stocks

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  #68 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

also just a note that the spy is seen to revers around this area ir hit some major resistance this is based on a 1 month chart.
Putting an end to January's trend.

Its hard to see exactly where cause i cant zoom in on the 5 min chart. but i would say either we have arleady begun to trun around or we will a dollar above this todays level which is 132-133

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  #69 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

How did our Jan 19th predictions play out ?


traitor786 View Post

this is form jan 19th in my journal
CVS looks a tad more intresting but entry is really late here.

we had previously bounced off a monthly fork and then bounced off a weekly fork, gone through some tuff reistance in november and then broke out. now we are between 2 key median lines and I am forced to assume we will head up and touch the second one. On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days

Again a small universe of stocks.

PNFP

monthly fork: bounced off lower fork in OCT
weekly AND daily fork: last bar was a touch of both these forks lower line.

Its a good set , unfortunatly we are late. last bar (the one that bounced) had a wide range. if it had closed at its low it would of been perfect. but it closed on its high meaning we lost some meat here.

I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long

sxlp.

This one seems to have just touched the upper monthly trend line And touched the weekly forks median
since we had a little bounce of the weekly median, we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here

sni

bounce off monthly
bounce off weekly.. missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy similar to pnfp

so thats what we see thus far. lets see how these 5 trades progress.

How did our Jan 19th predictions play out ?

OMX:

We didnt really have a call there so we will skip that one.

CVS

We had said :" On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days"

We have not broken out of Jan 18ths bar all price has been contained within that price range. Considering price was on a rampage going from 36.50 to 43.17 with day after day of gains. Calling neutral was a hard call.

PNFP:

We had said :"I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long "

The day after i wrote this indeed we did see price go up 1$ in a day. and hold there for the follwing 2 days. I have no call here untill we have another jump up confirming we are clear of any resistance. But without looking at the multi time frame charts I will assume we still have some ways to go up

SLXP (was marked as SXLP in error)

We had said: " we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here.

Our stop at 50.28 was not hit, we saw a drop of about 5 $ in 2 days here and stayed around that range today.

SNI
We had said "missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy."

We did not see a new hi above Jan 19th's bar when this prediction was made. There fore there was no entry here.



In general I would say my predictions played out well. There is some space for disagreement sure. But trading is not about being right its about risk to reward ratios. SXLP had a 5 % loss. This would off set any "break even trades"

As mentioned price movement tends to happen in the after hours. I will have a look for myself if any of these plays could of even been taken advantage of in day time trading.

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