seeing as my forks move around a bit its hard to tell. but rimm is about to hit resistance. I cant be precise but i would not be surprised to see it in the next few days. Since it is a monthly chart, it could take a month +
Naturally, we can see a break out.
Weekly and daily charts are more on the neutral end. Since we are day trading it is not a buy at this time. Maybe in the hourly/5min. But we are trying not to enter in there untill monthly weekly and daily confirm together
OK so I have added to my list of stocks and updated monthly and weekly forks.
Here is the list thus far
cvs - going up to median
omx - hiting a weekly fork line
pnfp - hitting a monthly fork line
slxp - hitting a monthly fork line
sni - hitting a weekly fork line
So as you can see there were 5 that stood out.
But they are not yet tradable. I don't think i can trade inter day off daily and weekly let alone monthly charts. These are just ones to watch out for on the open, if the hourly and 5 min chart look good we will see what happens.
It does not mean im bearish or bullish ( i have not yet marked my sentiment but it is all on the charts) It is very possible that one im bullish on does bad tomorrow . For example OMF bounced off its fork and already had a good run. it closed at its high. opens back at the bottom, highly unlikely, then it may not be a good buy. This is mainly because these 5 show stocks that have ALREADY HIT MY ENTRY, maybe it has to with how i screened to find this universe, but none showed price about to hit my entry.
This makes my calls not what i wanted, but maybe we will see a good probability trade is to buy the second bar after hitting resistance... its important to distinguish between the 2 systems and keep data separate.
I guess it will all depend on price action, market direction and where we open.
Now I must say that none of these showed strong buy signals in all time frames. Because my universe is small, I really had to find stocks that were looking good in 1 time frame and having no bad signs in the other 2 time frames.
Originally, the idea was to find stocks that scream buy in all time frames. With this small selection of stocks, my screening is 1/3 of what it should be. which is a very bad fraction. Hope fully as i add ill be able to be more picky.
I have not traded this week as there was no plan, ill see how tomorrow looks, but realistically, i should not trade till i have some data on paper trading or atleast a nightly review of things. Also as mentioned,these are charts that have already passed the entry point I had in mind by about 1-3 bars.
We will see which are highest % gainers and loosers tomorrow out of my universe and which beat the market if any
broke down out of a monthly fork
bounced up off a weekly
had priviously broken down out of the daily and has its last bar high touching daily lower bar that is now resistance
so the monthly does not tell much,
the weekly says we should of bought at the low of the last bar
and the daily says we should of sold at the high of the last bar,
too many conflicting signs but my universe of stocks is small. this one will all depend on the open.
CVS looks a tad more intresting but entry is really late here.
we had previously bounced off a monthly fork and then bounced off a weekly fork, gone through some tuff reistance in november and then broke out. now we are between 2 key median lines and I am forced to assume we will head up and touch the second one. On the daily chart we are neutral to positive when we look out to the next 3 days
Again a small universe of stocks.
monthly fork: bounced off lower fork in OCT
weekly AND daily fork: last bar was a touch of both these forks lower line.
Its a good set , unfortunatly we are late. last bar (the one that bounced) had a wide range. if it had closed at its low it would of been perfect. but it closed on its high meaning we lost some meat here.
I guess if we make a new high with some good price action it will confirm the trend still has some energy and only then can we go long
This one seems to have just touched the upper monthly trend line And touched the weekly forks median
since we had a little bounce of the weekly median, we can place our stop at the 50.28 i guess . we are looking for strong downward momentum/price action before we go short here
bounce off monthly
bounce off weekly.. missed the meat as it closed on its high but if we see new highs for this year and price action joins in we can buy similar to pnfp
so thats what we see thus far. lets see how these 5 trades progress.
there iss too many negatives but we did do some screening which is always a positive
1 we are entering 1-3 bars too late ! thats terrible !
2. Terrible setups even if we did enter before.. Not a single stock screams buy in all time frames they just wisper neutral, neutral, buy.
3. we are interday trading and we have only looked at daily charts !!!! terrible terrible terrible !
my technique of choosing the stocks based on monthly weekly and daily charts does not translate in to the minute charts.
as it can take a few bars for things to play out and when interday trading you are limited to one daily bar.
maybe i will add hourly and 5 min forks. or only work with hourly and 5min forks.
Im looking at price action and think that al brooks book is the only one i heard of that shows this well. just not sure which book is best of his.
I still think that price action is just a way of looking at a minute or tick chart. but since every one is looking at it shoudl have relevance.
due to the low amount of volume on the stocks as oppoesed to the spy. it was nice to be able to fit todays complete price action on one screen.
i found myself going back to my own ways and trading the minute chart. Due to the low numbers of entrys and limited moves it probably was a good idea.
ended the day down about 10 or 20 cents a share. i was mainly trading 100- 300 shares just as a test.
i think i need to focus more on how the day is looking. maybe see if elliote wave theory can also give me a ruff idea of what is giong on, just in general to get used to how things play out.
It seems i may have a small edge that im not sure how to play. but this edge is too small too often do i place wrong trades.
mainly this was in the mid day. a good 4 hours of struggling to make pennies per share. I should not of even bothered trading during that time or maybe try my hand at range trading.
also another issue was that the stocks seem to open up or down. this maily reflects my expectation. by the time the markets open teh move has been made and i am stuck with flatness. I cant hold over night unfortunately .
I feel as though a trader with no experience can get the same or better results.
the stars I dont really use the HH,HL etc I use they form as soon as that candle closes, if your right the next one goes in your direction if not they either go away or move with you this is why I use moving averages along with bollinger bands to help read next move. I use your Andrew fork now bc its easier than me drawing channel lines(thanks) Im glad to see your steadfast on your quest, why not look at futures this way you can watch one or two compared to hundreds?
I slept 3 hours yesturday and crashed a bit today.
Then I woke up and it hit me !
I know I over trade, but that is because I want to make money and the market only gives it to me couple of 5-20 cent moves a day. To achieve a cumilitive 1$ per share is a task in it self that is only done a few days of the month.
There are times when I'm sure things will go my way, we hit clear resistance and the spy does too. It feels like there is a free 10 cent move. A high probability trade. So I take it, and make 10 cents. Then I try to add to that and take less probability trades.
If every day I see 1 perfect entry (with a 10 cent gain) to keep my win % up. I could only take that one trade. Instead of spreading my 10,000 shares over 100 trades (100 trades x 100 shares), I do it one time on the perfect set up
By being cautious, and limiting my risk with low investment, I am actually taking on more risk by taking mediocre trades.
A typical day for me is 100 trades of 100 share (I consider it paper trading). 1-3 of those trades I could bet my life on. The rest I see as 50-50s but are actually under 50 50
My previous results are worse then a new comer because I will take any trade that presents it self and assume, that if I see even the slightest reason to buy, I take it assuming that if I'm correct 60% of the time and use good stop loses Ill be up for the day.
Could that be why I was having difficulty ? Could it be that simple, under exposed and over trading with too high expectations?
I Can be more picky
So I ask you,
How many trades do you make a day ? me 100
How many shares do you buy? me 100 at a time
What is your target for the day ? A billion dollars!
What percent of your time do you spend not "in the market"? me 90%
Now will buying 10,000 shares create liquidity problems, that is to say, will it be the same as buying and selling 100 shares ? or will i have to take 1 cent lose due to slippage?
or will accumulating 10000 shares take the whole range of my swing (entry to target)?
Some slippage is OK, as I will be able to be fully focused on the one trade and enter at the perfect place and have a tighter stop lose.
I'm curious how often the pros trade and what there goal is per share and frequency of trading.
Last edited by traitor786; January 20th, 2012 at 02:11 AM.
OK i guess I lost my viewer (few) and no doubt this is to my writing style. Ill try to make it better.
Anyways trading less trades has given me time to find my perfect entry and have tighter stops. Also it helps in looking at new ideas. and keeping track of trades. Im more motivated to do well on a big trade as i know it will make a big difference so I will try to stick with it though I did feel I found that I was still trading too often.
Al brooks book is 90 $ and they dont have it in stock.
I still contend that reading 5 min bars is the same as looking at a tick chart. For example I was reading this technique where you have a large bar that engulfs the next 2 inner bars. and you wait for a break out. on a tick chat this is represented by looking for a higher high to be made. But I still want to get my hands on the book.
So as you know I am new to stocks. I was trading the fas spy ect exclusively.
Many of the stocks I was looking at were just boring as heck ! Part of me wants to go back and trade the spy with this new trading less idea. And I may on a boring day.
Stock selection is hard for me I have no idea how to do it and what to look for. But I have read and noticed that many day traders like you trade "in play stocks"
To me this is a risk. as it means price is making fast movements and may or may not follow resistance.
Why would you want to trade that when you can trade something that is more likely to follow support and resistance? Granted waiting for it to hit can take forever.
Also I finally read some thing that seemed to have a neutral overview of level II. I now understand that the level II in the spy is useless but should have a quick look at it in individual stocks that are in play.
Macro Economics Is a major issue too. I know nothing Besides looking at the SPY FAS QQQ BKX and im really good at noticing the connection between them.
But what's intrestiing is that it seems people always know how the industry of the stock they are buying is doing, and which stock in the industry is getting the money and what industry is hot ect.
This would mean I would mean having a chart of each industry up ?
That general feeling of how the market is doing is absent. what is moving ?
How am I to know? and if it is known that it is moving isnt it too late to get it ?
I mean are we talking about looking for a stock that had some good news and had an x % gain and we are going to try to jump in and hope that we get an x + x % gain ?
I know these are simpler things. But what I am learning is that it is all the simpler stuff that is really effecting me. Even in order entry. It is hard to get good information on simple things.
I tried to find information on how to use sterling trader and I really could not find much besides there manual. You tube only shows the regular set ups and stuff.
How can I find the perfect set up for the day? If i am looking at inplay stocks, I do not have the luxury of pulling up chart that meant certain criteria with all my forks already up. I will have to draw them in. by thsi time any momentum (i would assume) would be done with.
Alot of questions are coming about and each one looks like hours of investigation if not years.
But questions are good. they were absent before.
For now I will hope that since I was close to break even before, trading more selectively may be all I need to cover my fees and stay above break even. Add in some analysing my r:r ratio and win percent and I hopefully I can get in the green consistently. Maybe then I can decide what to learn next whether it be price action, macro economics, how to screen/follow the news, level II, 123 patterns and evidence that a trend is breaking.
If my posts were more organised, I'm sure I would have little tid bits that could be a quick fix to some of my issues until I have time to look more deep in to them.
I have read that al brooks book is a hard read. some say to start in the middle. If I was to ever right a book It would be similar. a bunch of endings followed by a bunch of beginnings and then revised endings with new exceptions followed by a conclusion that many would feel contradicts everything i have written lol.
So if you are reading this one post in this thread for the first time. take my advice and don't go back to read previous posts.
I am considering stopping to use forks in the large time scales and focus more on the daily and under since i am inter day trading. The number of times i get hit by a bigger time frame fork will be low and it will be the cost of doing business for now. Maybe if i see that i trade similar stocks often, i will use all forks.
The time frame is hard to get right though. I never can seem to get the right time frame where i would see teh current trend and the trend that it is occurring in to avoid break outs.
So I bumped in to this after a quick search on google
It is a screened on his site for me, I dont have good experience with screening and its all done here
" dmTrend is based on Welles Wilder's concept of Directional Movement to identify stocks that are entering a new trend or are already in an established trending pattern."
It uses a d14 indicator (This indicates the percentage of time a stock has had upward directional movement over the last 14 days (this is an accumualted average).
also uses the ADX and ..
A stock is considered to be starting a new uptrend if its' +DI14 crosses above its' -DI14 and the stocks' ADXR is greater than 25.
I think there should be a community of people that make forks and give let us know when a stock is to reverse. Maybe one day ill try to post some up in a more lower time frame then i have before.
Any ways i use think or swim not sure if i can make a screen line this on it. so if the above mentioned site goes down or something im lost. Then again i dont trade off think or swim so i could loose my account there. last week i kept having problems with that was on their end supposedly
Seems like when i look at many stocks that have been on a trend or a few days atleast I notice that the activity in the day does not reflect the trend at all. all the action is in the after hours. Many times during teh day we see small counter trend moves or flat moves. How can a trend trader have any advantage during the day?
There is no time for a trend to develop during the day. All the action that makes up a trend is in the difference between the close and open.
So are all trend traders more like swing traders ?