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the sloppy trader
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Created: by traitor786 Attachments:13

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the sloppy trader

  #11 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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Rad4633 View Post
Better chart, so your using it for long term trades meaning months?

no in this case its decades unless i see a break of the trend. i really wish though that i had accumulated at the bottom line and sold at the top line but its a long term investment not a trading plan. there is however an exit but in general, it will be used to the same degree one would exit there cash positions.

maybe after a while i will trade it also. or at least short it to off dips in my long term plan. but for now i am sticking to stocks if that fails then i may trade it but its all the same in the end. If we don't break the bottom line we will be back to 1900 soon

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  #12 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
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CAT chart

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Rad4633 View Post
Better chart, so your using it for long term trades meaning months?


Ok here are those stars. It takes 3 points (or stars) to make a fork. the option of using 4 is just not there.

so no matter how you go about it one of these points were not chosen. price just reversed at the point.

Luckily the 3 points needed are the first 3 a b and c . the last high (like in teh gold chart) ended up there without my selecting it to be there.

This should give an idea of the relevance here. Sure you can say its all clear in hindsight. but i really dont see another way to draw this fork do you .

as far as how many points im trying to get, that would fall under risk management which has yet to be discussed but typically in my old messy fashion i am trying to make a million dollars on my first trade of the day and loose 100 dollars on all the bad trades. at least that is my intention while im taking my morning shower.

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  #13 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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CAT weekly


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Here is a weekly view of CAT you can see it has indeed followed its forks well. Small forks (pink) were only broken when they came to the larger long term fork (red) there was a slight mentioned leak at when we crossed the red dotted median line. besides that it is perfect.

Also, if you look closely you can see a new grey fork being made without the use of the third point. some times i am good at this. in this case i am NOT, its just an estimate of the earliest possible resistance.

Typically this grey fork (which could easly be a cm higher) would be broken as price is supposedly supposed to go back to the top red line. but when drawn correctly it should represent some resistance.

I will also try to post my hourly or 5 min chart .

I really dont want to go to far in to proving the merit of the fork as an entry signal can be wrong 30% of the time and money can still be made. Also, note that CAT was not chosen by preference. It was mentioned by the previous poster today and i drew these right away so this is equivilant to picking a stock out of a hat for me and it may even be a chart i dont like..

anyways i will post a shorter time frame of this just for fun and then continue my progress

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  #14 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
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no entry on hourly cat

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Ok so on the hourly chart there really is no play, though price has extended to the right, it has done so by partys playing 3 forks.

That has left price staying within all these 3 forks making things very hard to see. I would not place a trade based on these forks and do not like it even on my journal but in all fairness this is an example of a fork at its most confusing.

here we see 3 possible forks this gives us 6 outer lines and 3 median lines. Not only does this make things difficult but it also may devide moves by 3. Assuming that 3 groups are playing these forks.

Price right now it satisfying all the 3 forks that is squeezing price in to a triangle or 3. Typical Price action people will see a triangle fomration soon here unless we break out fast.

its funny how non fork people look at triangles and head and shoulders. where fork people see them in a bigger light and maybe have better targets. but as they come about in these complex scenarios i imagine both parts are really gambling with a slight edge and are both equally lost possibly the fork guy is more confused by knowing too much here.

I can see a potential traingle form before most but dont like to trade them as of yet.

price may not coil in to the triangle formation here but once one line is breached there will be a little action. or it could coil back and forth and we see the same action thsi will happen typically before the triagle points meet

if i were to bet id bet the red fork upwards but this is more based on the longer time frame .

to be clear there is no entry here untill one fork has been chosen

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  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
Greensboro NC
 
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traitor786 View Post
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Ok so on the hourly chart there really is no play, though price has extended to the right, it has done so by partys playing 3 forks.

That has left price staying within all these 3 forks making things very hard to see. I would not place a trade based on these forks and do not like it even on my journal but in all fairness this is an example of a fork at its most confusing.

here we see 3 possible forks this gives us 6 outer lines and 3 median lines. Not only does this make things difficult but it also may devide moves by 3. Assuming that 3 groups are playing these forks.

Price right now it satisfying all the 3 forks that is squeezing price in to a triangle or 3. Typical Price action people will see a triangle fomration soon here unless we break out fast.

its funny how non fork people look at triangles and head and shoulders. where fork people see them in a bigger light and maybe have better targets. but as they come about in these complex scenarios i imagine both parts are really gambling with a slight edge and are both equally lost possibly the fork guy is more confused by knowing too much here.

I can see a potential traingle form before most but dont like to trade them as of yet.

price may not coil in to the triangle formation here but once one line is breached there will be a little action. or it could coil back and forth and we see the same action thsi will happen typically before the triagle points meet

if i were to bet id bet the red fork upwards but this is more based on the longer time frame .

to be clear there is no entry here untill one fork has been chosen

Basically your channel trading, with this method I think you already should see price action and know the general direction. Only problem you have to overcome is when price reverses suddenly and breaks the trend you need to know when to bail. I think you need to concentrate on your entry and exits, fibs are useful and it works with your type of trading. You have to trade trending instruments otherwise chop will kill your good days and turn ur account negative. Learn to read these days and dont trade or trade very little 1-2 trades tops.

Start looking at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT this way if PA pulls back from your trend line you can get out and live to trade another day. Also look to the left see support and resistance this will help you greatly for ie, If you see alot of resistance to the left and PA is approaching that area, you could sell and bank profits rather than chance a reversal.

You've actually got a good chart setup, its clean you see PA fine, you dont have any distracting indicators.you just need to develop and refine what works for you. Glance around here on futures.io (formerly BMT) you'll find your missing pieces. If you look and read the info is here. Money management is another area to look at(I recently got schooled on this one) and your mental game has to be clear and focused.

Good Luck



All in all I think you just have to start reading the market, its better to take a smaller piece of move rather than the whole move, especially until you get a better feel for the market.

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  #16 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
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how rare are profitable setups ?

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Ok,

So those previous forks were made to show you the relevance of a fork. If you have any questions about forks let me know.

Since this is something I'm trying to reproduce in an unemotional way, what I did was delete those and only put in the ones that are relevant now. The 3 fork thing was pulled out, and all that remains forks that are still intact and relevant. the pink forks that were broken were also taken out.

While doing this, I did notice that there was a point where I had a 2 fork possibility. One that I included was based on pivot highs and lows. Which is the system im using, the other was a bit more complex where I use only the accumulation point which I did not include. What was interesting is that when there is a multiple fork possibility, what may be a high probability trade is to, assume the one that is currently showing resistance breaks to continue to the other fork. I know its complicated but down the line if I remember I will keep an eye out for this and explain better.

For now, I'm using more simple unemotional forks that can easily be seen.

So this is what i did with about 10 charts and will consider them my universe for the time being.

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  #17 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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So what your saying is to buy when price hits the lower channel but also to look at at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT (not sure what dt is but will look it up) then to look to the left for resistance.

by alot of resistance i imagine you mean a horizontal line that connects many pivots ?


What i think your getting at is basically to to place my stop based on previous highs or lows.



Rad4633 View Post
Basically your channel trading, with this method I think you already should see price action and know the general direction. Only problem you have to overcome is when price reverses suddenly and breaks the trend you need to know when to bail. I think you need to concentrate on your entry and exits, fibs are useful and it works with your type of trading. You have to trade trending instruments otherwise chop will kill your good days and turn ur account negative. Learn to read these days and dont trade or trade very little 1-2 trades tops.

Start looking at HH(higher highs),LL(lower lows),LH,HL,and DT this way if PA pulls back from your trend line you can get out and live to trade another day. Also look to the left see support and resistance this will help you greatly for ie, If you see alot of resistance to the left and PA is approaching that area, you could sell and bank profits rather than chance a reversal.

You've actually got a good chart setup, its clean you see PA fine, you dont have any distracting indicators.you just need to develop and refine what works for you. Glance around here on futures.io (formerly BMT) you'll find your missing pieces. If you look and read the info is here. Money management is another area to look at(I recently got schooled on this one) and your mental game has to be clear and focused.

Good Luck



All in all I think you just have to start reading the market, its better to take a smaller piece of move rather than the whole move, especially until you get a better feel for the market.


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  #18 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 8 received

possible plays thus far

So there are too many possible entrys on these charts. i will try to think of them and keep track of which entrys preforms how.

1. mutiple fork possibility incuding accumulation fork where we would assume a break out to other fork.
2. hitting the bottom or top of the fork (solid line)
3. playing resistance based on time fork for a small imeidiat gain.
4 all the above in different time frames.
5. playing a reversal at multi pivots intersection. or a power point.
6 look for weakness in spy qqq bkx and short stocks that i feel will go down
7 Look at how previous trends that were broken and not on my charts played out and assign a rating to how well a stock follows a trend and play those

these are my areas of interest. i will scroll through my stocks and wait for price to hit one of these areas and then see what happens. This is what I used to play. mostly in the tick chart though. I understand that i need a secondary reason to enter the trade. While doing this I reference previous horizonatl resistance lines to place stops

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  #19 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
montreal
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: sterling trader
Favorite Futures: gold spy
 
Posts: 75 since Jan 2012
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how rare are profitable setups ?

This is where I may have too much on my plate and I have to keep track of each trade and the reason i got in. Keeping track is a sloppy traders pet peeve along with software, and calculating. But I will try my best.
No wonder I've avoided this for so long.

I'm just thinking that I may be trying too many things at the same time here?

What would my odds be of just one of these being profitable?

Myself, I don't know. Thats why I feel like trying them all at the same time. With only 10 stocks to choose from it may not be that hard?

What do you think ?

Do you think that just sticking to one of these systems such as buying at the touch of fork line while looking at price action and resistance area woul yield a 50 % chance of being profitable?

HOW RARE ARE PROFITABLE SETUPS ?

By profitable i dont mean it works 60% of the time. it could work 30% but have a 5:1 reward risk ratio.

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  #20 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Marshfield WI USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: FXCM, DBFX, Scottrade
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Posts: 3 since Dec 2011
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Kelly formula


The Kelly formula is a strategy optimization formula referanced in the book "Quantitave Trading: How to build your own algorithmic business.". Portfolio optimization strategies made for individual securities within a diversified portfolio can be applied to individual strategies within a diversified portfolio (of unique strategies). Look at your strategies as the securities, and weed out what is bogging you down.

Full disclosure: I read about the Kelly formula a few nights ago and have not had the chance to confirm or deny the quality; But I have used similar derivatives in some of my advanced microeconomic theory classes. It is sort of like a Cobb-Douglas production function.

Good Luck!

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