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Took probably an ill-advised trade in the soybeans this morning and now I'm paying for it. I was not at my computer when the market opened at 9:30 this morning but was checking quotes on my phone. I thought I had a clear set up to buy at 1240 with a 30-minute close above the WMA and a subsequent move above the high of that closing bar, but I was mistaken. Not having a chart to look at, I watched the prices going up on my phone so I called in the order to buy at 1240. By the time I got to my computer the order was filled and for a while it looked like a good move. I placed the usual 10-cent stop back at 1230, then the market turned lower.
I'm not beating myself up too bad over it. I genuinely thought I had a confirmed set up to buy, and beans were up 9 cents at the time. But if I'd been able to see the chart, I think I would have waited.
On the bright side, I've been able to move my stop up another 10 points on ES. I'm on day seven of this trade.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Overnight the soybeans and the mini s&p have moved lower. In soybeans I've now moved my stop to my entry point of 1230 for at least a break even. This is a good example of discipline and always, no matter what, taking the signal. I lost the two previous bean trades before this, and when I got the signal for a short at 1230 it would have been easy to sit out over frustration or fear. It's hard, after you lose two trades in a row from the long side, to immediately turn around and go short. But I said I'm not going to let those two losses faze me, they mean nothing, and if the market's going down it's telling me something. Lo and behold, I'm now sitting at break even on this trade.
Meanwhile, my ES trade from the long side got stopped out for a 20-point profit. Bought at 1320 and sold at 1340. Simultaneous to my stop hitting out at 1340, I sold at 1340 and placed a covering stop at 1350. I've got a signal that the trend is now down:
At the close my stop gets hit in beans. I'd like to know what caused the market to go up about 13 cents in the last few minutes. I mean just out of nowhere, boom! Up like a homesick angel. Even stranger, corn and wheat finished lower. Very volatile and choppy week in the beans. Oh well try again next week.
With the Greek news over the weekend the markets opened up higher last night, putting me into buy positions in both the S&P and soybeans. Notice on the charts how similar the two markets look. Everything seems to be moving in tandem opposite the dollar.
Over the last week the beans hit a lot of resistance at 1240. Let's see what it does this week:
I hate it when the market is like this. At the open this morning soybeans ran up and got within one tick of me being able to move my stop to break even, then promptly crashed. My rule is that when the market gets to the next highest number ending in 0 I move my stop. So I enter at 1240 with a stop at 1230, and when the market gets to 1250 I move the stop to 1240.
This morning it got as high as 1249.75. What to do? Do I move my stop and risk getting knocked out, only to have to start all over again if the market goes back up? Do I take the guaranteed break even?
I'm going with the latter. The way the market ran up but could not hold the gains tells me something weird is going on. It's time to play defense. If I get knocked out, and I think I will, I'll just wait for a signal at 1250.
My stop got hit on soybeans while I was typing that, so now I'm basically rooting for the market to go down so I'll be justified in my decision. But I think it was the right call, even if the market goes back up.
Well, I was dead wrong on that call BUT...I got back in just in time. Minutes after my last post I watched the soybeans go down to about 1238, then it started to go back up. Jumped around from 1240-41 and I decided I needed to buy back in. I don't know, it was just a gut feeling. I said to myself, "You do understand the market may keep going lower? Before you place that order, fast forward 90 minutes to the close and beans are down to 1231, a penny away from your stop. You sure you want to do this?"
And my response was a simple yes. Despite my earlier misgivings it felt like the right thing to do. The price, I felt, was telling me the trend was still up.
So I bought at 1240 and beans closed today at 1253, up 24 and a half cents. The final 60 seconds were the best part, with the market just zooming upward.
Did I make a mistake in moving my first stop up to break even when I knew it would take me out of the trade? Should I have sat tight? I mean I was one freaking tick away from getting the actual green light to move it. A whole $12.50 more, and I could have said later on, "My system was telling me to do it. Wasn't me, it was the system!" Sometimes, though, you gotta use discretion. I have a method that, for its simplicity, is as disciplined and emotionless as any of them, but there's still room for hunches and gut calls.
I don't know. Doesn't matter now. I got back in is the important part, and I'm on the right side of the trend.
Close of the March soybeans. There's big volume all over the place today:
ES is getting ugly. Two losses so far this week and a third possibly on the way. This is a big reason why I trade only a couple markets. The losses can pile on when it gets choppy. Is it me, or has the S&P pretty much just sucked ass since the beginning of the year? Yesterday and today were a train wreck:
