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Swing trading with Andrew's Forks and volume analysis


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Swing trading with Andrew's Forks and volume analysis

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  #1 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Wanted to open a thread to post my charts and get some dialog and chart sharing going on. Been trading about 4/5 years now and these pitchforks have some of the best risk to reward setups I've found. I use some other tools like volume analysis and some fib work, occasionally I'll look at elliot wave to help define structure and maturity of a move. Feel free to ask questions and post charts I enjoy the interaction. I'm usually trading early before I have to go to work and in the evenings...located in Panama City Beach, FL CST.

Looking forward to hearing from you.

Here's a quick look at what I'm doing. This is the EU. I trade mostly currencies, but do follow correlation markets DX, CL, GC, TF, NQ, SPX500, USDOLLAR, USOIL

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  #3 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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Didn't take this trade because I was loaded up on the EU short overnight but look at risk to reward here
from the sliding parallel to the median line...could have gotten in really cheap here.

Here are some of my recent trades...a couple breakeven, a couple nice winners.

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  #4 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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No doubt, Mr. Pitchfork was bright. Occasionally, i pitch a Fork on my chart but depending on the selection of your pivot (specially the middle arm) it can make a huge difference if the time interval covers lots of ground. I may revisit them if you can share how you proceed to draw them. However, i must admit, i feel more like a carpenter than a trader when i use these tools. These days, i prefer to identify key changes in supply/demand and use these zones when price revisit them, i have the feeling these zones are more significant than just an anonymous line whether it be a fib. or pitchfork line but that's my perception which is subjective at best. As they say, if you make good money that's what counts. I am eager to see more of your charts. Good continuation.

P.S. here is my most memorable comment about these lines many moons ago:

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  #5 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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a mathematical probability built in since they are projections off prior price action...statistics show, price has an 80% probability to reach the next median line once it leaves the current one....I like those odds. Gives you well defined entries and profit targets.

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 bayfisherman 
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If you will take note of the last post the image there is of the AU 60min...what is not shown is my downsloping fork...the red dotted lines are the downsloping fork I've been following. The slope is actually just a normal trendline it hits perfect 3 times through there you see the 2nd and 3rd hits...I'll just copy that line and drag it around to other significant swings and if there is frequency there I'll zero in the pivots I need to use and draw in the fork last. If you know a little about Elliot wave theory...a lot of the time wave 4 has the deepest pullback in the trend of the 5 waves and that will be my B and C points A will be the top of wave 1. To be honest as long as you are using signifcant swings high low high low high low, etc. and it looks good use it. Don't be afraid to move the b and C points some. Like I said if it looks good and it catches mulitiple turns, use it. Hope this helps.

KC_test_4 - pipslayer's library

kc_test_5 - pipslayer's library

kc_test_6 - pipslayer's library

These are some short videos of how I go about it.

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 JamTheTrader 
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bayfisherman View Post
If you will take note of the last post the image there is of the AU 60min...what is not shown is my downsloping fork...the red dotted lines are the downsloping fork I've been following. The slope is actually just a normal trendline it hits perfect 3 times through there you see the 2nd and 3rd hits...I'll just copy that line and drag it around to other significant swings and if there is frequency there I'll zero in the pivots I need to use and draw in the fork last. If you know a little about Elliot wave theory...a lot of the time wave 4 has the deepest pullback in the trend of the 5 waves and that will be my B and C points A will be the top of wave 1. To be honest as long as you are using signifcant swings high low high low high low, etc. and it looks good use it. Don't be afraid to move the b and C points some. Like I said if it looks good and it catches mulitiple turns, use it. Hope this helps.

KC_test_4 - pipslayer's library

kc_test_5 - pipslayer's library

kc_test_6 - pipslayer's library

These are some short videos of how I go about it.

Great work KC, Nice to see you here on Big Mikes

JAM

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  #8 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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Thanks for the videos, i was wondering, do you trade the Futures (ES, TF, NQ, 6E) I'd like to see some forks for these instruments and compare with what i can produce myself, a cheap way to counter check if i do it correctly. Thanks again.

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  #9 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Thanks for the videos, i was wondering, do you trade the Futures (ES, TF, NQ, 6E) I'd like to see some forks for these instruments and compare with what i can produce myself, a cheap way to counter check if i do it correctly. Thanks again.

Updated 1/12/12 22:00 CST

Futures room 6E, CL, TF, NQ, adding gold GC and XAU/usd:

https://www.screencast.com/t/EuqoZ8uTU

Once you are in the library you will be able to scroll around to the other charts.

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  #10 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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Nice run after news...

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  #11 (permalink)
 trendfly 
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Is there any median pitchfork indicator for ninjatrader?
Have you tried priceactionswing?

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  #12 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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trendfly View Post
Is there any median pitchfork indicator for ninjatrader?
Have you tried priceactionswing?

Haven't tried "priceactionswing"...not sure what that is. As a pitchfork for gold, I don't use an "indicator" per say, I draw those in myself.

Here are the charts I have for gold spot and gold futures.

XAU/usd & GC 3-12:

If you look in the prior posts in the "futures room" screencast I have these same charts posted. Hope this helps.

The text on the GC chart should read I've been chasing a short in "GOLD" not oil...I'm usually up early in the morning doing these half asleep...

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 Rad4633 
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trendfly View Post
Is there any median pitchfork indicator for ninjatrader?
Have you tried priceactionswing?

Ironic just ran across another guy using the pitchfork Guess this is the "new" jk, yes Price swing works great with it, also look at bwfractals for the ABC

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  #14 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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Rad4633 View Post
Ironic just ran across another guy using the pitchfork Guess this is the "new" jk, yes Price swing works great with it, also look at bwfractals for the ABC

Not sure what you mean by new jk, but forks have been around for a while. Not familiar with price swing indicator or bwfractals. I just trade the lines. I use some volume analysis to help make decisions along with candle/bar patterns at the lines. Typically I wait for an intial reaction off the line first then place the order on the retest with stop behind the first test swing.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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I find the secondary black Fork difficult to believe or impractical. Some spot coincides with turning points but it is more of an illusion or just coincidental. That's the weak point i found with this type of analysis when you use a Fork just for the sake of using it.

The example on this chart:

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  #16 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I find the secondary black Fork difficult to believe or impractical. Some spot coincides with turning points but it is more of an illusion or just coincidental. That's the weak point i found with this type of analysis when you use a Fork just for the sake of using it.

I have to agree with you in that there are times when a pitchfork is a little sloppy as I can see this black on down towards the current price action. Forks have there time and place in a move then it becomes invalid as the trend changes or market conditions change, so then I'll draw in a new one as swings are broken. They are nothing more than trendlines, hopefully you can see the usefulness in that, parallel channels, projections, etc., if not I don't really know how to respond to your comments.

The black fork is what is called action reaction lines, I'm not using it here in a typical "fork fashion". It's more of a projection tool here. Everybody believes what they want and I have confidence in these lines, so if you don't I suggest you don't trade them. I haven't found anything that is exact, so if you have something to offer I would like to see it. I'm always open to other peoples ideas even if I don't understand them. I've seen some Gann Fan analysis that incorporates price and time that look like these crazy star shapes, etc. Wild looking charts, but hey if those guys make money off them and know how to trade them, who's to criticize. I find the market is measured and moves in cycles and that is all the black fork here is suggesting. Here's an example in the pound. I've been selling the pullbacks into these blue lines all the way down. The same way I'll be watching these black lines for support on pullbacks.

If you would like to learn more about action reaction lines there is some great information on youtube @ Tim Morge, "Market Geometry". He's a billion dollar hedge fund manager.

Feel free to post some charts here on the EU or whatever I'm posting...like I said I like to see what other people are doing.

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 bayfisherman 
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Just thought I'd scope this out for you...as you put it "coincidence", how many times defines conicidence anyway? Isn't that we are all looking for in the market repeatable patterns, cycles, levels tested and retested, coincidence. Coincidence is exactly what I'm looking for because I don't believe it is coincidence, there is definitely something going on here.

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 bayfisherman 
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I had completely forgotten that I came across a guy that was using the handle as a time projection....I was going to back test the idea then just got busy and it went by the wayside. This is the same red fork on the last post...Check out the projection of the handle hitting th swing high perfectly...very nice coincidence. Will have to keep an eye on this one.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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bayfisherman View Post
Just thought I'd scope this out for you...as you put it "coincidence", how many times defines conicidence anyway? Isn't that we are all looking for in the market repeatable patterns, cycles, levels tested and retested, coincidence. Coincidence is exactly what I'm looking for because I don't believe it is coincidence, there is definitely something going on here.

My previous comment was not meant to be a negative critic of Pitchfork's analysis as i can see the merit in it to form a mental structure like those traders who use the VWAP with 3 standard deviation bands etc.. It's when we over-abuse these lines that i have some doubts.

What about if you could simplify your workload as a trader and still gain the same benefit if not more by focusing your attention where it counts, ie, key changes in supply/demand, balancing zones and obvious support/resistance creation when momentum kicks in.

In your chart, where you show the time handle projection you could have identified this area as a supply zone without the need to project this vertical line. To help you better understand my point, read this controversial article by Lance Begg about the illusion of lines on a chart when you have time, maybe you'll find it thought-provoking. You can also disregard my comment just as well because it is subjective and obviously corresponds to my experience and understanding so far.

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 bayfisherman 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
My previous comment was not meant to be a negative critic of Pitchfork's analysis as i can see the merit in it to form a mental structure like those traders who use the VWAP with 3 standard deviation bands etc.. It's when we over-abuse these lines that i have some doubts.

What about if you could simplify your workload as a trader and still gain the same benefit if not more by focusing your attention where it counts, ie, key changes in supply/demand, balancing zones and obvious support/resistance creation when momentum kicks in.

In your chart, where you show the time handle projection you could have identified this area as a supply zone without the need to project this vertical line. To help you better understand my point, read this controversial article by Lance Begg about the illusion of lines on a chart when you have time, maybe you'll find it thought-provoking. You can also disregard my comment just as well because it is subjective and obviously corresponds to my experience and understanding so far.


I know people that trade just price action alone, no lines, no indicators, etc. Price action really is the best indicator itself. The lines are probably just training wheels for some of us that don't read the market well. As you mentioned, the mental structure or framing the market is what it helps me with. It would be hard for me to look at my charts with out them. It helps me see the maturity of a move...I can see divergence and other momentum type tendencies within the structure of the fork. I like the fact that it has a mathematical probability built into them and they do work as a leading indicator projecting into the future like they do. I'm always looking for confluence of areas...trend, momentum, cycles, fractals across time frames and support/resistance. I look at fibs but don't trade off them, but I know lots of other people do...so they are important to me, along with other various technical tools. As far as supply and demand zones, I have my own volume analysis that I use to identify those areas. Prior accumulation and distribution areas that I can line up with my support resistance lines horizontal as well as diagonal. I really believe the market is measured and cycles within ranges as the market moves sideways and channels/ranges as the market trends up and down. The forks give me well defined entry and exit points, so they work well for me.

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 trendfly 
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I am starting to study how to apply geometry to charts and I was playing with Pitchforks and trend lines to adapt to the moves of the spot gold and this is the result:





Perhaps i am missing some lines, pitchforks, or perhaps is not good positioned, please feel free to modify this setup if necessary.

I am using 60 minutes Timeframe,
Just an open question looking for some guidance, when do you think we have more probabilities to have a success trade and what SL and TP will you use?

THank you in advance.

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 bayfisherman 
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I like what you've done with the first chart that countertrend slope looks good....I don't understand the placement of it on the line to the far right...usually what you want to do is project it off the swing low, if you are using it in that fashion as action reaction lines. Here is a chart I put together real quick and an explaination of how I came up with it. I'll attach my futures chart as well.

Hope this helps...regardless if gold rolls over just look to sell breaks of flag formations on the way down, that will be the easiest way in case you miss the optimal position at the top.

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  #23 (permalink)
 trendfly 
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bayfisherman View Post
I like what you've done with the first chart that countertrend slope looks good....I don't understand the placement of it on the line to the far right...

@bayfisherman Thank you for your answer.

Do you mean the countertrend line ?
Its to use as a possible reference in the future as the others countertrends.


bayfisherman View Post
usually what you want to do is project it off the swing low, if you are using it in that fashion as action reaction lines. Here is a chart I put together real quick and an explaination of how I came up with it. I'll attach my futures chart as well.

Hope this helps...regardless if gold rolls over just look to sell breaks of flag formations on the way down, that will be the easiest way in case you miss the optimal position at the top.

What is the criteria you use to draw the lines, i have clear how to use pitchforks but i think you always draw extra lines sometimes with same scope and others lines or pitchforks with the most recent trend, trying to touch highs and lows tails. Thats correct or you should consider something more?

and Yes i think delayed embargo on Iranian crude imports could make euro and gold continue downtrend.

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 bayfisherman 
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when I say slope or frequency I'm talking about a trendline on an angle that catches multi-pivots. I usually draw my trendlines in first to help identify a particulary frequency then draw my fork in last as the lines typically will guide me to the pivots for the fork I need to draw and choice between a standard fork or a M. schiff fork. The other lines about the fork that are projected off swing pivots are called action reaction lines or sliding parallels.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Jolew 
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Thanks for starting this journal. I also use pitchforks, mainly in gold.

Below is a short term setup that is usually good for at least a bounce. In a case like this where the trendline (median line) broke, and retested, it will usually bounce off a point C somewhere along the lower line. I just draw the pitchfork in advance and move my orders up the trendline.


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 bayfisherman 
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Jolew View Post
Thanks for starting this journal. I also use pitchforks, mainly in gold.

Below is a short term setup that is usually good for at least a bounce. In a case like this where the trendline (median line) broke, and retested, it will usually bounce off a point C somewhere along the lower line. I just draw the pitchfork in advance and move my orders up the trendline.

That's a nice centerline you have there...gold definitely in an uptrend. The turn off my supply level that drove the price down has me looking for a short in the same area. It looks like you've taken a trade there off market structure, resistance becomes support. I'm expecting a return to the 1660's, but I'll be looking for a short up there.

Feel free to post whatever charts you like. I trade mostly currencies. Just took a short in AUDchf...may regret standing in front of that train but it's in the plan to take the setup.

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  #27 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
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Sliding parallel retest looking promising...would coincide nicely with the AUDchf short.

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 trendfly 
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After read a little about Andrews median lines, and studyng gold futures carefully, i think i found a better setup, in the last trend started by gold this new year. I added stochastic and better volumen indicator, i find useful the stochastic, but still i am not sure what mean colors of the volume indicator... How you read the volume bars?


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 bayfisherman 
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trendfly View Post
After read a little about Andrews median lines, and studyng gold futures carefully, i think i found a better setup, in the last trend started by gold this new year. I added stochastic and better volumen indicator, i find useful the stochastic, but still i am not sure what mean colors of the volume indicator... How you read the volume bars?


You can get some information on youtube by searching on Gavin Holmes. It's called VSA, volume spread analysis. Tradeguider.com is his site. Nice looking fork by the way.

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  #30 (permalink)
 trendfly 
Cordoba. Spain
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader, Strategy trader, metatrader
Broker: Mirus, FXCM
Trading: 6E, TF, CL, XAGUSD, ES, Gold
 
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Posts: 35 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 47 given, 19 received

According to this charts it looks gold is oversold, I think using mediam lines, stochastic and volume, perhaps its not sufficient to have a winner strategy, i have used a range (48) chart, i have read volume works better when its used with range charts, what you think?



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  #31 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012


trendfly View Post
According to this charts it looks gold is oversold, I think using mediam lines, stochastic and volume, perhaps its not sufficient to have a winner strategy, i have used a range (48) chart, i have read volume works better when its used with range charts, what you think?



I tell you what my friend...all of that stuff you named is just smoke and mirrors...if you want a winnning strategy concentrate on high probability areas to enter and take profits when ever possible small or large. It comes down to risk management and trade management and your exits. The entry is somewhat secondary to the rest. Patience waiting for the market to come to your price is what is key...most of my short coming is trading too often and too early. That's all psychology and has nothing to do with the charts. If you try to trade the way I do you are going to lose. You have to come up with something that you believe in and have tried and tested over time. It takes a while to be successful. It's only through a lot of hard work and consistancy that you will ever be any good at this game. I've been at it for 4/5 years now and I'm still learning every day. I do tons of backtesting and drawing. Sometimes you can get too close to something to where you don't see the obvious easy stuff...taking a break to release your mind is key. Good luck in your journey. I hope I can help you get there but the only way you learn to hit that golf ball or put that soccer ball in the net is by practice practice practice. I've found this style suits me and I see it pretty well, so take everything in and filter it through your own ideas, so that after 4 or 5 losses in a row the setup comes around and you take again because you believe and have seen it work time and time again. It will cover your losses and then some in the long run. I run 20 to 40 pip stops and I'm shooting for 50 to 100 pips. I try to only trade highertime frame support and resistance and enter on lower time frame to reduce my risk. I use forks, volume, momentum/ support and resistance, market structure, elliot wave structure, Volume spread analysis, etc. a lot of stuff, maybe too much stuff....keep it simple and work on your execution. Make a trading plan and stick to it, back test it to make sure it's profitable...it all boils down to execution, precise by the rules execution. If you don't have a rule set or a trading plan you're just chasing your tail. Hope this helps.

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  #32 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Long Cad stopped at b/e

Short EU stopped at b/e took it again and closed for 50 pips

Short gold closed $7.52...should have held on to this one but trail stop was taken out.

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  #33 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Gold
AU
GU
CAD
EU

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  #34 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

thought I'd post this chart to get some discussion on where the dollar is headed. Always like to here other people's point of view. Any commets about these lines are welcome. Any charts you have of dx that you would like to post feel free. Thanks. Should be an interesting upcoming week.

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  #35 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Forex Room: EU, GU, AU, Kiwi, Swissy, Lonnie Updated 1/22/12

AU Daily - pipslayer's library

Futures Room: 6E, CL, NQ, TF, GC

6E Daily - pipslayer's library


once you are in the library you can toggle around to the other charts...looking for the risk off trade this week.

Dollar bounce equities, oil, gold selloff...potential for a final drive up Sunday/Monday before prevailing trends resume.

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  #36 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

I've been watching Euro crosses long...jpy long currently scalping EJ short but looking long longer term.

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  #37 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Been watching yen for a while now and hopefully from this chart you can see why...

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  #38 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

at prior highs...

I like the yen pairs...showing some good frequency...


https://www.screencast.com/t/Tyx3b70op64z

remember once you are in the libary you can toggle around to the other charts. Hope you like. Good trading all.

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  #39 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
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Posts: 50,065 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,529 given, 98,480 received

Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

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Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
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  #40 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

For some reason the link specifies a specific chart...once you are in the library you can toggle to the other charts...6e, dx, gc, cl, nq, tf, fdax, es, au, gu, eu, nzdu, uj, uchf, xau/usd

Daily charts:

6E Daily - pipslayer's library

Futurres 1hr/4hr:

6E 60m - pipslayer's library

Forex 1hr/4hr:

AU 60m - pipslayer's library

Here's a couple of charts I like...


good trading all

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  #41 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

80 pips today on two trades and done....big reversal off double bottom GJ as well in the money 40 or 50 now I passed on...good things happening in the trading room...shoot me a pm if you would like to check it out. Looking at adding the es on monday.

Big Mike ... let me know if I can do a webinar on pitchforks

good trading all.

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  #42 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

for the london session over 100 pips this morning...nice market structure and aggressive reversal trades.

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  #43 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Gift wrapped this morning on news....not long after I opened the room @ the london session.

check it out Strategic Daytrading - Futures, Forex Live Day Trading Rooms ask for KC. adding the ES on Monday.

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  #44 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

looks tradable to me....

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  #45 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

nice confluence there on friday's close.

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  #46 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

nice run in EU may see some profit taking down here

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  #47 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Some nice winners, most days profitable...oil has been a great market as of late to trade intraday, here's some entries and exits

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  #48 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Heard you some of guys were giving JAM the trader this biz...you don't know what you are talking about friends...


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  #49 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Nice system JAM

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  #50 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

some strength coming off the lows today...probably just a small correction, but we'll see.

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  #51 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

Me likes

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  #52 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

nice long overnight in UJ

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  #53 (permalink)
 bayfisherman 
Tallahassee
 
 
Posts: 57 since Jan 2012

been following yen as prior noted...yen crosses looking good to the long side.

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