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Try trading the 10 year at NFP this past Friday (I did not of course) ... about 2 seconds before 8:30:00, a huge spike covering about 18/32 of a point occurred, and trading halted for about 5 seconds until 2 seconds after the release. Whether it was algos getting an early leak of the number, or just algos disrupting the market as usual, these things continue to become worse. At least the pre-NFP movement in the euro was typical liquidity shuffling and was only a few pips -- this was a bit under a typical entire day's range in a few milliseconds, BEFORE the release. Fun stuff eh..?
Thanks for the post @josh another great example of Whatever it is we see during the news. I just wanted to bring up another fact of life, screen refresh rate. My charts refresh only a few times a second, so when a move like the one I posted happens it is basically over before I see it.
Here's a fun exercise to put all this in perspective for those you wish to play along. Turn your "I phone" on to the stop watch and see how many times you can blink in one second, then find out the chart refresh rate of your program. As I recall the default setting for Ninja is 0.5 seconds.
The purpose of my post was to suggest traders might want to rethink trading around news, but of course if you have your order resting in the market you ought to know how well you did by the time you blink 3 times.
No I haven't forgotten about this thread, but this stuff takes time! Friday's price movement played right into my hand on so many different levels I just couldn't pass on the opportunity to dissect many of my theories and post these charts. There are a lot of charts (I did my best) but the comments may seem like mostly pulp and not much juice.
Here are two Profile charts, one Price and one Time. At 2am price was trading near the LVA of both of these charts. I often look at both types of profiles and "consider" entries and exits between the two VALs and VAHs.
Same charts as above but the VA are removed and Daily Price levels are added. Price appears to be supported by the Previous Day's 50% level @ 1.3336. That makes two studies that I watch seemingly supporting price. The third "theory" that I subscribe to is "normal" (14-16 tick) price rotation above and below whole numbers.
Lastly (actually not, but enough for now) the Daily Pivot is sitting 8 ticks below the whole number 1.3350 at 1.3342. This area was screaming BUY BUY BUY. At this point the range is 33 ticks, a long here with a target at '66 (VAH, 16 tick rotation, a test of the high) keeps the 33 tick range intact!
BOOM!
Here's a look at the move off the U.S. data released at 10:00 am, these are one minute bars. A nice big push up that stopped dead at Thursday's High. When I see moves like this I DON"T want to see price pull back "much" beyond the 50% level of the initial push, I want to be all in on the pull back (sorry about the fib levels) the stop is at the low of this High Volume bar.
This one pulled back to the tick,, these charts show volume coming in on each higher high, and exhaustion of volume at the top.
Don't forget the B Band chart, when the lower band turns UP that's my Get the hell out indicator. Often, price will make one more attempt at the high,,, and usually fall short, just what it did on this day.
And Lastly, rotation, rotation, rotation..... This is text book! Know your market and know what the normal rotations are, control your risk by trailing a stop under those High Volume bars. Or,,, take profits,, shut up,,, and be happy.
Sorry for the one line comments,,,, its been a long day. Thanks for viewing the thread.
then find out the chart refresh rate of your program. As I recall the default setting for Ninja is 0.5 seconds.
