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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist


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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

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  #501 (permalink)
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Very happy to hear about the good news for your daughter

Prayers and God are with the @Cashish family , &


YEAH

Ride safe and keep the rubber side down (trust me, Terri and I know from first hand experience)

-Bill

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  #502 (permalink)
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I did not trade today or earlier this morning. I did not feel well. Received some not so good news from my Dr. regarding my latest surgery (stitches still in )
I did do some prep work last evening. Since we stopped one time framing higher AND we closed/settled near y-day's VAL, my plan was to look for an opportunity to sell. My delta (momentum) tools showed an increase in selling pressure once we approached y-day's VAL...don't believe I would have stepped in front of that freight train.

Anyways, I'll most likely be away for a while.

emini

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  #503 (permalink)
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Sorry to hear that E

Sure hope things get better for you

Prayers be with you and your family

Oops and God to

-Bill

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on this call

-Bill


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Dr Gold

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/long-term-outlook-for-major-low-in-gold-and-platinum-group-metals.html

-Bill

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Sure hope things are going well for you and your family(s)

-Bill

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Ride safe and keep the rubber side down



-Bill





EDIT

We also have this on a micro time frame (still M15)


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3594, ~3600

Thinking next week we should resolve this (?)

2013 in revue from a 50% re-trace perspective using -23.6 as targets (these are not traditional Fibonacci pulls, they are the reverse so I'm told.)

Pull 1 to 2 gave 50% 3 to target 4 (-23.6) and ultimately 5 (-61.8) year high

Pull 6 to 7 gave 50% 8 with an unfinished target of 9

Pull 10 to 11 gave 50% 12 (3594, ~3600) with an unfinished target of 13

-Bill


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but the 3523 held (61.8)

and the 3550

Hope all is well with everybody

Cheers

-Bill

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I understand FRI was a no brainer but time does come into play



Cheers

-Bill

EDIT

M30 chart

The lower study is a three RSI - 13, 21 and 34

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WilleeMac View Post
I understand FRI was a no brainer but time does come into play



Cheers

-Bill

EDIT

M30 chart

The lower study is a three RSI - 13, 21 and 34



That 30 minute chart makes it look so easy This morning I was in long, long and boring and boring and boring. I was targeting the 50% line from Friday,,,, seemed like a good idea at the time! But after throwing about 1 Go-zillion darts my ass started growing fast to my chair. When price stuck it's head above '60 I started spoon feeding the market my positions.

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There's no School like the Old School

Swing Lows





I thought this was one of those Textbook moves that I just had to post. Of course I have no idea where price will be by the time I post this but while sitting on the edge of my seat this morning "What did I See?" BTW, The video is all for FUN.





Not to provide an excuse for greater things I do want to say my sleep schedule and trading times are still all over the map! When I did make it to my trading station the EU Session Opens had already put in a nice 30 tick (+-) drop. The FIRST thing that caught my eye was the price at the bottom of the last 5m bar of that move (the low of the day). Just to clarify, since yesterday was a Holiday ,,,, the CME data for Sun, Mon and Tuesday will be combined into (1) trading day. So in truth, the low (1.3527) made at 3:07 a.m. EST this morning is only the low since the Globex Open last night. But we all knew that, right? The next thing I see on the first 5m chart is a bunch of overlapping bars. This represents 2-way trade and in this example the next 7 bars or for 35 minutes price traded within the High and the Low of the last bar of the down move. The 2-way trade continued, and price did inch higher to the 1.3542 level and began to find 2-way trade down into the previous consolidation area, (Value Area). Those aware knew the ZEW Numbers were going to come out at 5 a.m. EST.

This is where this post is going to "step off the reservation," now look at the second chart. I traded in this area yesterday, and these levels were familiar to me, I remembered the low at '23 and thought it could be a contender if price tested the '27 low again. The point I want to make here is; Be aware of how easy it is to get Tunnel Vision when focusing on small(er) time frame charts. I suggest Look Left and then look further, to the left. I see so many charts posted in threads of small time frame trades using swing lows and highs within the last few hours AND those same traders using LARGER time frame charts for their "look back" charts. Often there are swing lows and swing highs buried inside these larger charts that raise havoc with trades taken on shorter time frame charts.

In this example, a stop to protect a LONG position 1,2 or 3 ticks under the swing low of 1.3527 was probably taken out, BUT a stop 1,2 or three ticks under YESTERDAY'S swing low at '23 was Golden. That's all I have to say about that!

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Cashish View Post
I want to thank everyone for the continued support, information and prayers, Thank You.

My Daughter has been walking around with wires taped on her monitoring "whatever" it is they (doctors) monitor. She has passed all the requirements, which means, She's healthy enough for the surgery. Tuesday, she will have her kidney removed. The doctors are saying, NO KIDNEY = NO CANCER


Like @eminitrdr says, "Ya gotta hitch your wagon to something"... I've got mine hitched to this Kid ,,, I mean Surgeon.


All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE



Thanks guys for your continued support

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All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE



Thanks guys for your continued support

Awesome news Cashish, very very glad to hear it.

Mike

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My wife (Terri) and I have decided to buy an ass load of stock in the Hindsight Corporation - guaranteed to provide a return, eventually

-Bill

P.S.

Cashman glad to hear that about your daughter

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Awesome news Cashish, very very glad to hear it.

Mike

My Confession,

When she came home from the Doctor's visit and told me the news we just held each other and cried buckets of tears. I don't care how old she is, in my heart and in my arms, she's still that little girl from long ago.


@Big Mike

This




is what makes
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PLANET


My Thanks to each of you

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Cashish View Post
All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE


I've found in my life as well as my trading the sooner I can turn a tragedy into a comedy the sooner I can move on. The day after my Daughter received the "All Clear" from her doctor she hit something lying on the interstate while driving home from visiting a friend. She saw whatever it was fly into the air out her rearview mirror but everything seemed fine so she continued on her journey. Unknown to her, whatever it was she hit ripped out the left front brake line! As she approached the exit ramp several miles up the road and applied the brake,,,,, it went clear to the floor!

She pumped the brake and had the wit to pull the emergency brake to bring everything to a stop without incident.

Good grief, I guess when your "numbers up" your numbers up! I believe we are all living through a temporary existence on this planet and although we may think we have all the time in the world to pursue or dreams, we may not.

Please,,,, believe in and pursue your dreams with passion, today! Live your life with happiness and share it with everyone around you. This afternoon you may not be living the life you lived this morning!


OK, I'm ready to get this thread back on track, back to the topic of trading!

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There's no School like the Old School

Now What?


I think Thursday's move caught more than a few traders by surprise. The PMI numbers out France lit the fuse and when the rocket pulled out of the week's Value Area there was no stopping it. I also believe several comments out of Davos helped support price at these levels but I'm questioning any further or how much further this rally may go. Basically there was no news out of the U.S. last week and the "Fed Fathers" have been under their gag order until they meet this week. This week the tables are turned, a lot of news and data coming out of the U.S.. Keep an eye on release times and don't fly to close to the flame! Another factor to keep in mind is Chinese New Year, it always has a way of changing the "feel" of the market. Looking back at last week I also have to mention Martin Luther King Day, the reason I bring that up is the COT Report. We all know the COT Report is compiled after the end of trading on Tuesdays and since all the trades from Sunday's open to the Tuesday close were squeezed into one trading day, a closer look might be helpful. When I look at Tuesdays and compile a "projection" of what I believe traders might be doing in regards to the COT Report I only consider the range during U.S. Session. I have a chart below with more detail on this.

I'm looking at two levels 1.3700 and 1.3500

I think the failure to actually trade above 1.3700 during the U.S. session and the close of Friday near the low is significant. I figure there were 40-50,000 contracts traded up there, and there are probably enough longer term traders holding positions to generate some excitement if price returns to "feel out" those levels. But IMO, price will bide its time in Friday's Value Area ('95-'75) and lower until something or someone provides a stimulant.

With no news out of the U.S. for the most part all last week traders made the best of the EU data. But throughout the month of January both the Large Spec and the Commercials have been on the same side of the market. Friday's COT report shows Large Spec net short for the second time (last time was 11-26-13) since August. This first chart shows what I was talking to above, the "extended" Tuesday due to the MLK Holiday, it is a 1 hour chart. The BIG rectangle is/was considered Tuesday by the CME data, the smaller area within the rectangle highlights the hours between 8am and 12pm est.. That is the area (time) I use when looking at COT data, the fact is prices traded within this range and at the end of the day the Large Spec reported net short. The "quirk" here is, since the data for open interest and volume on this particular "extended" Tuesday includes all trades since the Sunday Night Globex Open I cannot use Wednesday's open interest numbers as a comparison and generate any meaningful outcome at that time during the week.




But if the past behavior of traders holds any significance of the current behavior of traders (and I believe it does) then this chart would suggest Large Spec are willing to short prices in this area (note Nov 26.. net short -431). Friday's COT Report concurred with my theory, Large Spec ended the day net short.




Here are two charts of the Volume Profile from the Sunday Night Globex Open until the Thursday move to 1.3699. The top chart shows only the Value Area and how it unfolded during the week. Talk about a breakout! IMO, this market was ready to go either way, all it was waiting on was news, obviously the news was "Euro" good! I did some study of this breakout and at 2:58 am when the numbers came out the 1 minute bar printed a low of 1.3574 and a high of 1.3603. Not really all that exciting. But what I thought was fascinating was the volume of this bar, 4,350 contracts traded in 1 minute. The speed of price movements in today's markets can make your head spin. The 29 tick range of this 1 minute bar happened during the first 1 second of trading, of the 4.350 contracts traded within this 1 minute bar, 2,433 of those contracts traded during the first 1 second. Remember, this is a 5m chart!






OK, so all this brings us back to today, Sunday Night. Where does price go from here? I think sideways to down leading up to Wednesday's news. That spike up on Friday left 2 ticks in the "New Year's Gap" and that might have been to tough to fill. Ought to be an interesting week and I'll be looking for a nice inside day opportunity to develop.

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There's no School like the Old School

The Opinions of Others

Today we get a peek at some U.S. Data, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence both of these can move this market. I've been eyeing two levels, the 50% line of Thursday's move (1.3614) and the 50% Fib retracement of the move from 1.3506 to 1.3740 (1.3623). Ultimately my opinion is price will test for support at 1.3600, today. Below is a 1 Hour chart with these levels marked.


I think the market is going up, I think the market is going down,, I think we're going sideways. Everyone has a belief of future price movement, and everyone usually trades that belief. Sure, all three opinions are correct, or they will be at some point in time, in the future. Six months from now when price is trading on 1.3600 after trading on 1.4200 I'll "quote" this post and say, "I told you so!" The point I want to make is, we have to develop our own opinions about the future movement of prices, if we don't, we might as well let someone else trade our account for us. If you're a follower of my post, Don't believe a word I say get out there and do your own homework, form your own opinions/beliefs about price movements. Following someone else, just doesn't work. I may feel comfortable selling a pair right here at '50 and adding 3 more at '60 and stop them all out at '70 risking $875.00 on a trade that if price goes to 1.3600 as my analysis suggests the position will pay me $3500.00. Then there's always the news getting in the way of a Damn good idea as I posted in the last post for example, any position I may be DREAMING about may be destroyed in less than a second. Analyse the market and keep boiling down your analysis until it fits your trading time frame or "comfort zone" then believe in it, and trade it! THIS takes time, as with anything we do for the first time but I guarantee you it's the only way. Write it down, Why do I believe price is going here, When do I believe it will get there, What actions will I take at what levels and why will I take those actions, these are only a few questions you may ask yourself to start the process. In short, don't believe me or anyone else on blind faith alone, get out there and verify every comment of every "guru" and find out for yourself. Own them, form all your own (personal) trading Opinions.

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Here's a study that I wrote for Think or Swim which marks the highs and lows of the hours shown in the upper left corner. The hour marks can be adjusted, I happen to like these. As well, the green circles mark the high and low of the first candle for that hour (regardless of time frame) and the red squares mark the half hour.

For me I find it quite interesting how certain hours will interact with each other/ one another.

This isn't intended to take away from the excellent work that @Cashish (Cashman) has put together - as Bart would say "Oh, contraire mon frère" - I think it adds to it.

Does it always work? No. However a hell of a lot of times it does, check it out.

Cheers

Ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-Bill_M



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Close enough for me, in both Time and Price.





Turkey, I thought their only export was heroin or opium (no not Hopium Willee). I do remember buying some dried fruit once for my oatmeal and looking on the package to see where it came from and,,, behold, it said Turkey! Dried fruit or not, I'm sorry, but I just couldn't bring myself to buy a bag of dried fruit that came from the OTHER side of the PLANET! I wasn't sure if Monsanto was still selling D.D.T. over there or not. I use fresh fruit now.


I wonder what Ben has in store for us this afternoon, I also wonder if Mario Draghi is invited to the "going away" party?
I'm sure Christine Lagarde will be there, Ben learned a lot from her! And Those Legs wow!

Next week Mario will play his cards, and do a little "jell'n with Yellen."

Gotta love this stuff!

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(no not Hopium Willee).

Not sure here - please let me know what I'm hoping for

-Bill

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Turkey, I thought their only export was heroin

Not just white bads, but huge exporter of white goods too - like fridges and washers.

Travel Well
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"Always in short",,,, Al Brooks







Tighten up your jock strap (sorry girls), grab your saddle horn, jump in short, pick your target and hang on!

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Do time pivots have anything to do with this? 0200amET, 0300amET etc?

Sure it does. More importantly so does 50% retrace and price levels.

Good luck and good trading.

-Bill

Yesterday



Today

Notice the FOMC PA debacle respected the 50% short




Previous chart before edit

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Willee, your second chart, the FOMC chart isn't there. Try re-posting. Please


There's one more nail to drive into this coffin, the the CPI Numbers out of Deutschland due out on the top of the hour.

Don't get caught with your "saddle horn" in your hand or "hopium" up your nose.


EDIT: @WilleeMac ,,, On second thought, I do see it! On the bottom of the post, it's just not embedded in the text.

Those are some nice looking charts my friend, thanks.

BTW @eminitrdr was sneaking around in the Chat Box (#4) this morning, however I missed him. But it looks like he took a nice slice of the short pie to have with his coffee!!

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ONE MORE

U.S. GDP Numbers, IMO, this is the final straw, this will decide the "real beliefs" of traders in regards to the FOMC Minutes.

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I don't know what happened, on my end it shows them as there

-Bill


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I don't know what happened, on my end it shows them as there

-Bill

I do that a lot, but if you use another computer (or your phone) you'll see what I mean. It's ALL GOOD.


Where are the stops???? even 1.3600 WATCH OUT!

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Here you go w/ out all the fancy stuff. Does "Trading the Measured Move" always work? Sure 100% of the time. ,,,, #LuLzzzz

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There's no School like the Old School

Sideways ?



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If you believe in long /6E this *might* help

EDIT

This is a long term daily chart. Technically for now the shorts are in play. Of course this does not mean everyday is a short - not much in this world travels a straight line.



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There's no School like the Old School

More Cashish Nonsense


I caught a fever from my little one, I've been trying to post something since Sunday night and had several ideas come and go. This post is probably going to end up being a bunch of disconnected ideas.

Last week I said I was watching two levels, 1.3700 and 1.3500. U.S. traders never had the opportunity to trade the 1.3700 level,, I'll rephrase that, 1.3700 never traded during the US Session on Monday. 1.3685 on Tuesday and 1.3676 on Wednesday was the best we could do. This first chart shows traders were quick to run to the long side of the trade and on Tuesday (according to the COT Data) were "Net Long" 14,347 contracts. Friday's trade around the 1.3500 level put price back into the area where traders have been getting "Net Short" ,, once again. I highlighted this area.



This post was meant to be posted on Sunday but it is what it is and I still believe it may be helpful. Looking at the above chart it's obvious there are a series of lower highs as well as lower lows. But in my last post "Sideways" I attempted to point out even though price made lower highs and lower lows, the closes of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were within a 3 tick spread between 1.3666 to 1.3663. This next chart will explain where I'm going with this.



This chart (above) was my anticipated levels for trade date Feb 3 (Monday) these are the Taylor Numbers I've written about up-thread for those who might be interested. The one set of these numbers I want to include in this post is the Buy High Number. This number is derived each day by subtracting the most current high (today's high) from the previous day's high (yesterday's high) and averaging these sums over 3 periods (3 days). For Monday Feb 3 the Buy High number was 1.3536. On this chart this level is marked using the Blue Dotted Line. What this number signifies to me is, if price continues to hold precedent and continue on a course of printing lower highs, this price level will be a "player" during the trading day. To be fair, there were a lot of significant price levels (IMO) clustered together near what turned out to be Monday's high. Rally Number '29, 50% level '27 and the Buy High Number '36. They ALL traded, and the fact of the matter is 1.3536 was the high. Just more Cashish Non-sense? Probably, but the Buy High number was the high of the day twice (OK -1 tick on one day) last week.

One of the other price levels embedded in the cluster was the 50% level (1.3527) of Friday's range. In an up move, this would be the first level price would have to contend with. I don't care if the 50% level isn't actually a Fibonacci number or not, Fib users chart it. The 50% level of the prior days range is probably the most watched level on the chart. Every Fibonacci Chartist plots it but so do other traders who give very little respect to Fib numbers, Dow Theorist, Gann and Elliot Wave traders all monitor the 50% level, combined that's a lot of traders. My opinion of the 50% level is that it can often be traded as a support or resistance level, of course other times price will blow right through it. Below is a chart of Monday's price movements around the 50% level of Friday's range. I think what is significant in this example is the ease of movement thru the level, and a quick pull back to the level. Yes it was a higher high (left side of chart), and the first few pull back bars appeared to respect the level but they were inside bars going nowhere. I suggest looking for some type of confirmation, one example in this case might be an up bar actually sitting on the line, without a tail hanging under the line, or vice versa of course.



So this week I think traders are focused on two things, Non Farm Payrolls and Non Farm Payrolls! I'm re-posting (maybe) the first chart of this post because I believe any trade within the gray area has the potential to turn into a full blown short squeeze in a hurry. The lows of Friday and Monday may hold until either Mario (Thursday) or NFP (Friday) give the market a nudge. That being said, the volume of trades traded on Monday was 65% +/- 90,000 higher than the 20 period average of Monday Volume. And Chinese New Year continues on Tuesday.



While I was writing this price was testing the 50% level of Monday. This is an example of what I want to see, price supported by the line, for how long? Time will tell us.


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Following up on my post from above. @Cashish uses 50% retracement (half-way back) and this post is nothing more than taking it to the next level. Primary focus other than participation (price action), 50 retrace etc is to try and identify where the algos are anchoring themselves. Think about that. A computer does not randomly go out and sell this or buy that. They have someone at the helm, steering it through the channel trying to fill their (client) need. Now there's a lot of other things that go in with this, whole numbers, pivots, buy - sell envelopes etc.

However, outside of those numbers, why did it stop where it did? Or retrace at a number other than a "clean" 50%?

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@WilleeMac you ought to start your own thread, you have a lot to offer and I believe your method of viewing the 6E deserves it's own thread. I'm not trying to run you off, I just think you would be quick to accumulate more participants in your discussions in a "stand alone" Half Way Back thread. I hope you give it some thought, as I said I believe you have a lot to offer.


Did I say I've been fighting a fever the last few days and I'm borderline delirious on occasion? I read thru my last post and realized I failed to mention My Outlook of price movement for the next few days. I believe the next few days leading up to Mario's comments price will test higher. I have to ultimately have my eye on a 50% retrace of the move from 1.3700 to 1.3500. I believe price will be testing 1.3550 and 1.3600 by Thursday when Mario plays his cards. In short I'm looking for sideways to up price movements the next couple days.


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There's no School like the Old School

Meat Loaf




I had to post the "old" one


Most futures.io (formerly BMT) members probably don't know who "Meat" is, but maybe a few Old Farts will stop by! And what the hell does meatloaf have to do with trading?

Trendlines and Channels

A friend of mine once told me, "Everybody has a different recipe for drawing trendlines and channels on a chart, kind of like making meatloaf, in the end it usually works." The point he was trying to get across to me was, don't try to draw the perfect trendline or channel. This week I've been looking for price to move sideways to up, this morning I saw a lot of sideways but found myself squinting looking for the up. Prior to the ADP Number I captured this chart.



I'm looking for an up move so a break of the top of the wedge was game on. Of course the move started to materialize around 8am est just prior to the release of the ADP Number. Below is a 5m chart, price started to ascend off the 50% level of the prior day with a bar that had no tail hanging under the line, a good place for a stop. Price just kept climbing as well as volume, it's "go time" if you wanted to take the trade.




If you entered long where's your target? The specter of the ADP release at 8:15 est was haunting this trade, so holding into the release was out of the question, for me. Of course the common assumption of many would be target 1.3550, but if you've read this thread you already know I'm an advocate for, Taking profits going to whole numbers not going thru whole numbers. The chart below has an "extra" bar on it now, (today's Thursday) but the levels marked were for Wednesday's trade. The Rally Number 1.3543 was my target. Again this is the 3 period average of price moves from the prior day's low to today's high. The chart above shows 1.3550 didn't trade until after the number was released, at 8:15 which opened at 1.3543.









Bat out of Hell

Oh,,, the memories of this Rock Opera
on 8 track of course

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Great journal Cashish. Enjoy learning from your experience. Here's my take on trend lines so far. Any feedback appreciated.

Justin

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@Cashish

Would like to have more commentary on COT, please

What type of commentary?

OI, change in OI, commercial vs spec, all tied together w/ charts, what you were expecting, how it played out and/ or possibly why.

Seasonality?

Other?

Thank you

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I have a brain splitting headache but wanted to throw this out there and see if the dog carries it off.

I think traders are trying to force their will on the market without the Blessing of Mr. Draghi. Rates were left unchanged but that's all we know. Do I think we could trade on 3400 or 3300, yes but I also believe this market could leave a "Trail of Tears" to get there. So far price hasn't found the LVA of Sunday/Monday's trade (1.3485) which is 14/16 tick rotation under the whole number 1.3500.

The true story will be revealed at the end of the day. Trying to guess direction is meaningless, BUT my 8 Ball says, "Look North!"

This link "should work" https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_140206.en.html

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@WilleeMac Are you get'n any?

Of this Wild Thing


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More on manipulation

BOE Staff Said to Have Condoned Currency Traders? Conduct - Bloomberg

Today's court ruling

German Court Challenges OMT -What Does That Mean for the Euro? | BK Asset Management


Quoting 
In its ruling the German court took issue with OMT program which is designed to allow ECB to buy sovereign bonds in order to stabilize financial markets in times of deep turmoil. However, the court noted that , “In the view of the Federal Constitutional Court, the objective mentioned by the European Central Bank to justify the OMT Decision, namely to correct a disruption to the monetary policy transmission mechanism, cannot change this assessment. The fact that the purchase of government bonds can, under certain conditions, also help to support the monetary policy objectives of the European System of Central Banks does not turn the OMT Decision itself into an act of monetary policy. If purchasing government bonds were admissible every time the monetary policy transmission mechanism is disrupted, it would amount to granting the European Central Bank the power to remedy any deterioration of the credit rating of a euro Member State through the purchase of that state’s government bonds. This would largely suspend the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget.”

Nevertheless the German justice refrained from issuing an outright ban on the program and referred the final decision to Brussels.


Quoting 
By referring the matter to ECJ the German court implicitly acknowledged the superiority of Brussels to Berlin and ceded sovereignty on the matter. The ECJ is expected to take a more liberal view of the matter and will likely rule in favor of the program.


Quoting 
Although tonight’s ruling has no immediate impact on ECB policy it does highlight the tensions within the EU monetary system and forces the central bank to walk a very fine line. At very least it removes some of the macroprudential tools at its disposal and making it rely on indirect methods of stimulus such as LTRO. ... but tonight’s ruling certainly limits the choices for policymakers for the time being.

Stay frosty

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Great journal Cashish. Enjoy learning from your experience. Here's my take on trend lines so far. Any feedback appreciated.

Justin

@shuglu Thanks

I like onions in my meatloaf, not for the visual effect, for flavor. But if my little girl sees an onion in anything (except a pile of onion rings) she won't have anything to do with it, so my work around is onion powder, we're both happy! I've been thinking about your request for feedback and I'm a little hesitant to respond. I believe the ingredients folks put in their meatloaf is based on a personal preference, the same with trendlines. I know nothing of your trading style, the time frame you trade or your tolerance for risk. This is what makes working with trend lines and channels personal, at some level every line we draw on a chart comes down to our individual style. I believe there are dozens of ways to make money trading the 6E, in this thread I've tried to show examples of many of the theories I use. I also believe if someone is looking for another tool for their trading tool box they'll find several good ones in this thread. That being said, if/when a reader does find something that "speaks to them" stick with it, study it, take it apart, refine it and make it your own.

IMO, trend lines and channels can be as short as 3 daily bars or a half dozen 5m bars, it all depends on the recipe of what you are trying to "cook up." Today is NFP Day, and I've posted my NFP Day game plan a couple times in this thread. This is one point of view of one way to utilize information derived from a trend line/channel.

Everybody has their own recipe for anchoring a trend line, not that it really matters, but I usually don't include tails. This morning I drew this (blue) line on my chart, my charting software will automatically draw the High Low parallel lines (if I select it).



Around 1am est price tested the swing low of 1.3585 from 3pm Yesterday afternoon, at this point a wedge was formed. One method of projecting a Price Target is to subtract the distance from the bottom horizontal line of the wedge (1.3585) from the high (1.3620) and projecting that difference an equal distance (35 ticks) lower, this is often referred to as, a measured move. The 35 tick distance is calculated on the left margin of this chart (white dotted line).



The chart below shows the 35 tick measured move projected from the horizontal line of the wedge (1.3585) 35 ticks lower (red dotted line) to 1.3550 (yellow line).



I've extended the parallel lines on this chart as a comparison to the measured move price target. I know, I know, I know the measured move target of 1.3550 never traded price stopped dead at 1.3551 1 tick away from the target. I hope readers are astute enough to realize the 1.3551 price level was what significant number on today's chart?




In closing, "Don't be a dick, for a tick." Have a great weekend fellas, and thanks for viewing the thread.

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More on manipulation

-Bill



@WilleeMac

Exclusive: Deutsche fires three New York forex traders - source | Reuters

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One last, Random Line for the week.


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@Cashish

Would like to have more commentary on COT, please

What type of commentary?

OI, change in OI, commercial vs spec, all tied together w/ charts, what you were expecting, how it played out and/ or possibly why.

Seasonality?

Other?

Thank you

-Bill_M

Boy, you're not asking for much are you Bill? I'm happy to take a shot at this but for the record my energy level is still pretty low.

To get things rolling here is a chart of the 1 hour bars during the Tuesday time frame (8am to 12pm) that I analyze to assess the net positions of Large Spec. Since the COT data isn't posted until Friday I can never be certain my analysis of their behavior is correct, until well after the fact. BUT, one important thing to remember when making an assessment of their behavior is, more likely than not the players seldom change. I don't have to assess the behavior of ALL market participants only the 100 or so Large Spec that always seem to hold positions week after week (according to the COT Report). This information alone should make your job much easier, especially when you begin to see patterns in their actions. How much information can you glean from (4) 1 hour bars, a lot. Obviously a range is identified, in this case it's 1.3530 to 1.3494 or 36 ticks. A quick look into the sub panel shows these 4 bars were within the period of the day's highest volume. Also the range these bars defined were left unchallenged, for 24 hours. Could that be, when these same traders returned to the market, for the next day's trading, just a thought. The Open Interest numbers are not posted until the close of the next day, but traders can see the preliminary data for the prior day on the CME website by viewing the Daily Bulletins. If you had, you may have noticed even though the volume was lower than the prior day (Monday) the OI actually increased. Lastly, and I posted this before, where is this range of Tuesday's trade in comparison to previous COT Reports? Based on what I just posted, I have to believe Large Specs are Net SHORT within this range.



Below is a chart of the 5m bars that made up the range of the 1 hour bars posted above. At 8:35 I drew the "blue line" and the rest of the session unfolded as seen.



This is the same chart as above just shifted a little to the left. Doesn't this chart make it look so easy? I don't want to wander off topic here, but just couldn't pass up the opportunity.



This is the first chart re-posted, in the "Meat Loaf" post I outlined another channel that played out during the ADP Report, that was an UP move consisting of the red bars (Wednesday) on this chart. Price is still within the COT Data "range" and the Daily Bulletin shows OI dropped a little during Wednesday's trade BUT some profit taking around Wednesday's run to 1.3550 ought to be expected. So, the ECB left rates unchanged and the white bar on the far right formed. Look where this bar is, still sitting in the range from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. I posted this just prior to Mario's comments, "Trying to guess direction is meaningless, BUT my 8 Ball says, "Look North!" Why "look north"? Because I still haven't seen anything up to this point that makes me believe my "Sideways to Up" view of the market has changed. I'm certainly not going to pretend to GUESS what words might come out of Mario Draghi's mouth, and I'll NEVER recommend holding a position into a ECB Press Conference. But you asked me for my analysis and this is basically it.







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@Cashish

Thank you very much

For those stopping by or may have overlooked it, earlier in this thread I posted a COT.xls

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There's no School like the Old School

Guess What?


Guess what, I'm watching two price levels 1.3700 and 1.3500.

Here we go again, by now everyone should be very familiar with these price levels, we've been here since the government shut-down back in October. But that's the way it works, chutes and ladders. This week all eyes are on Janet, remember, her prepared statement will be released 90 minutes before her "live" speech. Twice she speaks, Tuesday and Thursday, who knows what she'll have to say, but I'm sure there will be plenty of grandstanding from a lot of dead beat politicians hoping to get reelected next fall.

I'm going to throw a couple charts up and highlight the obvious, resistance above and support below.







The chart below is a Volume Profile of the "visible bars" it also includes the Value Area.





So, same story different day, we need "someone or something" to move this market. IMO, it's Janet's turn! In the meantime get back to basics, locate the swing highs and lows and watch the process of price discovery unfold. Keep a close eye on Friday's high, 50% level and VWAP those are always on the top of my list on Sunday night, you have to start somewhere. Once price starts to find a direction, keep it simple and look for tests of failed moves from Friday, or old levels such as these. These are only examples. You may have noticed the UP chart is a 1 hr chart and the DOWN chart is a 5m chart. If you do look at these levels as price unfolds, use the same time frame chart you normally trade, again these are only examples.





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@Cashish

I enjoy your journal as much for a glimpse of your experience as to the fact it helps me to think for myself. Thanks for your considered response and I realised post session that I had a short bias and was drawing my TL's based on this, not the facts.

Justin

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@Cashish

I enjoy your journal as much for a glimpse of your experience as to the fact it helps me to think for myself. Thanks for your considered response and I realized post session that I had a short bias and was drawing my TL's based on this, not the facts.

Justin

",,, it helps me to think for myself," if you are walking away from this thread thinking along these lines, my efforts have been successful, thanks.

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This week all eyes are on Janet, remember, her prepared statement will be released 90 minutes before her "live" speech.



Here's her prepared statement.

FRB: Testimony--Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress--February 11, 2014

She's got the touch!





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Don't forget the Early Close

might want to get out of those SHORTS!


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Damn and just when I thought my eyes had stopped burning from the first visit



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There's no School like the Old School

1.3900 ?


Been neglecting the thread for a while, thought I'd post a few charts of what I've been looking at. These are 60 minute charts, actually they are the exact same chart only expanded out to show some detail. Not sure if anyone will find them useful but the idea can be used on most any time frame. This first chart shows where these trend lines originated (yellow fuzzy line). I anchored off the low of January 31, and drew my line to the low of February 12. I've said before the software will automatically locate the HIGH and the LOW between those two dates and and draw the parallel lines (red lines).




Again, the chart below shows the same lines only expanded out to offer more detail. Obviously these lines are defining a "longer" term trend and it isn't to difficult to see the Medium and Short term trends "inside" the channel. However these are 60 minute bars and a smaller time frame chart will reveal a much clearer view of those moves. I wanted to post these charts as an example of watching a longer term view.

This is the 6E and of course the big moves such as today's move are most often generated by economic news or reports. Look back at the last time the ECB President gave a press conference on February 6, (white bar) it also generated a nice 100 plus tick move. I don't want to get into a pissing match over this trend or that trend, or there can be up-trends in down-trends and all that but I do want to point out the "sideways" trend. We all knew Mr Draghi was going to speak and the sideways movement of the last few days isn't that uncommon. These sideways movements or sideways trends also happen on smaller time frames, the rule of thumb is the longer the sideways "line" the bigger the move.




This is the last of the three charts, I don't know about you but I for one was getting sick of seeing 1.3735 every time I opened a chart this week! These were the levels I had on my chart this morning the blue line (1.3846) was the HIGH of Dec 18, and the yellow line (1.3893) was the high of Dec 27. When the news that the ECB left rates unchanged the 60 minute candle stopped to the tick at the 2X resistance level of 1.3775. When a full blown trend develops old support and resistance levels are next to meaningless, it's like a train leaving the station.




Bonus Charts


5 Minute Chart



500 Volume Chart


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@Cashish

Cashman can you post today's numbers?

I'd like to check and make sure I'm still on track

Thank you

-Bill

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The reason I ask is lately these numbers appear(?) to be skewed, esp for today

Thanks

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Looking at negative change in OI greater than 30K

3-18-14 57K

12-17-13 was 71K

6-18-13 was 47K

The reason why I bring up these dates is the change on JUN 18 preceded a significant drop in the Euro, however the change in DEC not so much.

Stay frosty

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@FuturesTrader71 mentioned this data set seems(?) to be getting some legs. Or at least that's what I thought I heard in today's Trader Bite

Yes or no FYI

Markit Economics - Markit Economics

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I'll still look towards here, moving on

Thank you very much Cashman, aka @Cashish

-Bill

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Here's an article that may (should) be of interest

Traders Denied M&A Payday as Firms Use Cash: Currencies - Bloomberg

Cheers, ride safe and keep the rubber side down

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Welcome back!

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We're here to help -- just ask

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@Cashish

Cashman

I understand this is off topic, however I need your expertise

I'm trying to apply this to the above with not much (fortunate. word ?)

Is it because of the ATR ? (21 day average is ~~ 1.55)

Thank you

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I think I've answered my own question

/CL has a new contract 12 months a year so applying this methodology would be difficult but not impossible........

With that said, thank you for enlightening me on all this "wonderful stuff" you have here

It has helped me immensely/ an assload

Hope all is well with you and your family

-Willee

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HEEESSSS BAAAAAACK!

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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Ho, Ho and HO


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Live Squawk ‏@livesquawk 21m21 minutes ago

ECB Boost Greek ELA Allowance To EUR65 Bln …

Ride safe my friends

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Some thing that may be of use for youzz guyzz

How to Read the US Dollar Index

-Bill

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Here's a study I'm currently working on. I've set the study to mark the high and low of each two hour time frame. Start time is 0200amET and end time is 1500ET.

When looking at the "count number" it is the number of occurrence long or short. For example if the high or low at 2am was at the top of the hour it would get a one or two (one is high and two is low.) If the high was at 215am it would get 1.25 and if 245am it would get 1.75, reverse for low would be two respectively.

As you can see the 1500ET window is blank and so far the spreadsheet has 41 records. As I enter in more records I suspect the "time bin" will not change much only an increase of occurrence.

How do I know this? On my M1 chart I have marks at the hour, half hour, fifteen minute and forty-five minute. I've been tracking this on /6E and /CL.

Pink Floyd is a valuable yard stick that can give an edge

-Bill










I didn't want to derail the "oil" thread with questions, so I STOLE this post and brought it here, (not sure it will work)!

What do you have on the burner Bill?

Why not 1 hour, or 4 hours?

I'm not sure I'm reading the spreadsheet correctly, what is "blank?"

What happened 30 times at 2 am in the count "cell?"

Tell me more, tell me more.

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This was about 1300ET today


Quoting 
Live Squawk ‏@livesquawk 55m55 minutes ago

EU's Dombrovskis Says Now Up To Greeks To Decide If They Request An Extension Of Bailout; Will Meet With Greece When They Are Ready

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I didn't want to derail the "oil" thread with questions, so I STOLE this post and brought it here, (not sure it will work)!

What do you have on the burner Bill?

Why not 1 hour, or 4 hours?

I'm not sure I'm reading the spreadsheet correctly, what is "blank?"

What happened 30 times at 2 am in the count "cell?"

Tell me more, tell me more.

Hold please

Let me get my head around a meaningful answer

In the meantime......

I have time marks (as noted, but not on that chart - you can see them on my /CL charts) on an M1 chart at hour, half hour, fifteen minute and forty-five minute. I'll use these along with VSA candles to note price action, price levels, participation (respectively red dots, green squares and white dots.)

Let me put together an answer with useful info (I might have to re-think my think.)

-Bill

EDIT

Blank is the number of cells that are blank, no data (Excel function =countblank(ACx:ACy) ) IE blank 41 and count 0. Count is how many times Excel detected any value, occurrence in a cell for a given range.

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@Cashish

I now have a total of 77 records and as I expected the number of time bins (ie 0400amET) did not increase but the number of occurrences did. (The above screen shot has 41.)

Time starts at 0200amET through 1500ET

I have a total of 26 cells (not counting 1500ET) and of those with a count of greater than 40 is 10. 2am, 330am, 4am, 6am, 730am, 8am, 930am,10am, 12noon, and 2pm (which should be expected, pit close.

Anyway, I'll work on a better response for you

-Bill

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@Cashish

"What do you have on the burner?" I've outlined this in some previous posts but there's a price action (participation) phenomena with both /6E and /CL that happens at time of day (outside of news.) So the XLS is a manual recording of occurrence of time at high or low, ie 0200amET was the high with 0345am low. The highs or lows could be classified as swings or just the first high of several, for example on an M15 chart. I've recognized this through 100's of hours of screen time. It's best seen on an M1 chart with marks at hour, half-hour, forty-five and fifteen minute. Personally I like the mark(s) to be placed at the high and low of the opening (hour et al) M1 candle thus giving you an opening range which could be used as reference further into the "hour." IE subsequent candles did not break the high or low of the opening candle.

"Why not 1 hour, or 4 hours?" Originally the study (code) was written to easily identify trading time zones and no trading time zones (participation) for /6E. Example of "no trade" might be after 1130amET or 12noon. By using only two zones (0200amET to 12noon) it did not give me the information I was looking for on /CL because /CL is /CL; you can have several 60 tick swings in the course of a very short time frame. I then changed the study to record start time at 0200amET and end 0800am and start 0800am and end 1430ET. This wasn't giving me the information I was looking for. So I went to using two copies of the study 0200amET to 5, 5 to 8, 8 to 11 and 11 to 1430. Again it was not producing the information I wanted, primarily because of the limits of the study and Think or Swim, ie not picking up lows or highs in between "studies" and I had to manually check which slowed down data entry. Trial and error (so far, WIP) is showing that three copies of the study is needed which results in two hour high and low zones (six time zones total, 12 data points.)

What is blank?" In XLS you can have the software count blank cells, ie no occurrence/ data.

"What happened 30 times?" At the time of the thread posting the spreadsheet had 41 records. Of these there was data (high or low) in 30 of these cells with 11 being blank. (Statistical significance?)

Now more on to the study itself.

I'm only looking for participation at time. I've the XLS setup so I can record high (1) or low (2) at hour and half hour. I've gone further with the recording of occurrence 1 or 2 is high or low at hour and half-hour with 1.25 or 2.25 in the bucket. For example 0500amET would be 1 or 2 and 0515am would be 1.25 or 2.25 recorded in the hour bin and 0645am would be 2.75 or 1.75 recorded in the half-hour bucket.

All of this is being done so I can work with the data in a statistical manner. Slowly I'm adding more records to the data set to have a statistically significant representation of the population (so to speak.)

Although my sample set of data would not make a statistician happy as far as being representative, it's good enough for me - hand grenades and .GOV work.

More on the sample data set later.

-Bill

A good example of time - what happened today with /6E and /CL at 0700amET?

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More on my last comment above

-Bill

2-17-15 M1 /6EH5


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This data is for /CL

Question that needs to be asked is can anything be gleaned from this?

-Bill

1= high, 2 = low, 1.25 = high at M15, 2.75 = low at M45 all of which goes into bucket hour or half-hour respectively


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I wrote


Quoting 
More on the sample data set later

.

The data set by a statistician's yard stick is not truly representative of the population, I agree.

Below I increased the data set from 41 records to 77 (still thin) and as we see the percent of blank occurrence did not increase that much nor did the time bucket change as to participation. As time goes on I will add to this data set but I don't expect much variance as to who, where, when and why. Maybe I'm wrong (hope not, manually entering this in is time consuming. I believe if you don't have time to do it right the first time, when will you have time to do it again?)

-Bill


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Pink Floyd is a valuable yard stick that can give an edge

-Bill







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All of this is being done so I can work with the data in a statistical manner. Slowly I'm adding more records to the data set to have a statistically significant representation of the population (so to speak.)

Although my sample set of data would not make a statistician happy as far as being representative, it's good enough for me - hand grenades and .GOV work.

-Bill

So you're building a rocket ship!



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Question that needs to be asked is can anything be gleaned from this?

-Bill

But not sure of your destination quite yet, that's cool. Ideas are slippery fish, you have to hold on to them or they'll get away from you. You've posted some great ideas (and spreadsheets) in the past, I'd like to see where this one takes you.

Thanks for the added info.

We're expecting temperatures in the 40's (maybe even 30's) down here the next couple nights, it must be bitter cold up there. God help us all! Sorry for the slow response, I had a monitor failure and had to plug in an old stand-by test monitor for a few days until I picked up a replacement.

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@Cashish

I see that you popped in on the Euro today around 1000amET

Draghi @Cashish





-Bill

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@Cashish

I see that you popped in on the Euro today around 1000amET

Draghi @Cashish





-Bill




It Wasn't Me




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@Cashish


Dig both

Ironically, back in the mid nineteen eighties (when I was young) I drug a wagon out of the San Joaquin Valley full of produce to Buffalo/ Toronto week in, week out.

You are a good man Mr Cashman

Cheers, ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-Bill

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@Cashish


Dig both

Ironically, back in the mid nineteen eighties (when I was young) I drug a wagon out of the San Joaquin Valley full of produce to Buffalo/ Toronto week in, week out.

You are a good man Mr Cashman

Cheers, ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-Bill



Thanks, and thanks for your 4 minutes and 8 seconds



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It's been almost a year since I last logged onto the futures.io (formerly BMT) site. My life has been taking a hard right turn and I've struggled to maintain my heading on life's compass. I can report one thing, love is what we're (I'm) here for. I hope you're all as fortunate as I've been to be totally supported by, a loving family, I thank them.

When I first came to Big Mikes a few years ago I started this thread with the intention to post a primer on how I trade and the personal journey that got me here. I thought I'd post for a few weeks or a month (I forget) and be finished by the end of the year, that was December 2011.

A week or so ago I came back to futures.io (formerly BMT) and quickly realized a few things I was unaware of when I was regularly posting here. During the past week I've been re-reading this (my) thread and I realized I put together some informative posts, some in great detail and some fairly crude. As time passed I struggled to find topics to post with meaningful content and I slowly began to loose interest not only to the thread but to the forum as well. I realize now part of this issue was of my own making, I didn't regularly follow other threads on futures.io (formerly BMT), just this one. I'm a Euro trader, I live and breath it, other instruments like NQ, ES and CL are of no concern to me, so why would I want to read those threads, how arrogant is that, I'm here to say I was wrong. Before I go on I want to apologize to the futures.io (formerly BMT) community for any post I may have made in the past that left any member (or reader) with the notion that "Mr" Cashish is one arrogant ___________ (feel free to fill in the blank). I (thought) I conscientiously and purposely did my best to avoid that perception every time I posted to the thread.

This week I've been following a few threads and for the first time really realize how differently different traders view the exact same group of bars on a posted chart. There were a couple charts with entries that were posted with replies to the post from other members that stood out. When I studied one of the trades on the chart, I wondered why anyone would enter a position at that level, and the next posted comment was in total support of the entry.

I'm here to say I was wrong about not following the threads of other traders, I missed out on a big piece of what Big Mike had offered me. I believe a lot can be learned of a trader by witnessing how they respond to a loss, whether it's in oil, Dow, ES or Euro the emotions are the same. The ability to take the next trade on it's own merit, and accept the outcome of every trade throughout the day individually requires, (for lack of a professional diagnosis) skill, a skill that's earned not learned. I believe we (as traders) earn the ability to practice and sharpen this skill, one trade (winning or losing) at a time.

I've had an eye on a few traders and most of them get pretty excited about a winning trade, made deep in the noise of the market on a 2,3 or 5 minute chart. This is not my perception, it's in the wording in their posts. There're all kinds of traders and IMO if you're visiting and looking for a trader to "look over their shoulder" I'm sure you'll find one here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that trades like you. Please, join in the conversation of the thread, if not here (Euro trading) there are dozens to,,, as eminitrader says, "hitch your wagon to." I invite you to join the conversation and share your opinions, because your response may be the one that offers another trader that aha moment when you or they earn their place on the next rung of the ladder of skill.


I like posting musical metaphors, some folks can relate them to trading experiences others can't. Here's a series of lyrics that scream to me, over-trading, trying to get even with the market and blowing out the account. I never had the balls or maybe it was just common courtesy that I never posted this before. I remember one day I saw a guy here on futures.io (formerly BMT) blow out a combine within a few hours, the description of his thoughts written in his post weren't that much different than Jimmy's. I believe, IMO most of guys who really really struggle to change may benefit from exploring the power of addiction. Trading (especially short term day trading) can become quite addictive, in a very real sense. How many posts have we seen that say, "I lost control, and don't know why." Are you trading or do you have something else going on, just under the surface, the answer will eventually come to the top, just like Jimmy but you can bring it up right now if you''re absolutely honest with yourself. I believe I've heard FT 71 mention "His monkey" I call it Mr Jim.

Oh, and by the way, this is thee Greatest Drummer to ever bang a stick on a drum head, if you didn't already know.




This is dedicated to all traders who ever stood up to the market
and
blew out the account.


Crank it up and
Enjoy





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  #582 (permalink)
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Welcome back you a_______ human being, good post.

Keith was (one of) the greatest drummer(s) and Time is (one of) the greatest healer(s) - more things will stay the same than we can believe and more things will change than we can imagine.

Just Random Music Theory (aka synchronicity) - I was watching an old Quadrophenia performance a few hours before you made the post, and Ringo's son Zak is not a bad stand-in these days either.

Cheers and Best Wishes to you.

Travel Well
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@Cashish

I've tracked your footsteps into other folks threads and what shows is nothing more than an unselfish attempt to help others.

As well, you've done an outstanding job here in your own thread which in turn has helped me immensely (as noted here and there.)

A few posts back I said you are a good man Mr Cashman which was not said with nut sack licking in mind.

Not to step on your toes but you might find Neil Peart an interesting person esp his book Ghost Rider.

And yes my last comment incorporates some partiality.

Ride safe

-Bill

EDIT

"Are you trading or do you have something else going on,"

It's funny (well not really) you say that. Every time I go back and review my charts to figure out how I missed a high probability set up, it typically boils down to ONE thing. I was not paying attention because I was jacking off.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For the folks that are popping in and reading the last few pages of posts, please take time to read the blog/ thread through - you will learn something (one of my favorites is slap on your jockstrap, grab the saddle horn.....)

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@Cashish

Knowing how much you like music

For English subtitles click on the gear icon lower right corner by CC

-Bill


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Let's see if this will have any thing to do with the price of Tea in China

-Bill_M


Quoting 
WSJ Central Banks retweeted
Pedro da Costa ‏@pdacosta 54m54 minutes ago

Germany sells five-year debt at negative yield for first time on record Germany Sells Five-Year Debt at Negative Yield for First Time on Record - WSJ


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WilleeMac View Post
@Cashish

Knowing how much you like music

For English subtitles click on the gear icon lower right corner by CC

-Bill



Bill, listen carefully, get the bike out of the shed, put it on a trailer, head South, when you find warmth,, ride it.

I think you've got cabin fever and need a little fresh air.

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@Cashish

Cashman, just for you - young man

DIG IT

-Bill


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@Cashish

Cashman,

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez

Come back, I (we) need you

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez, with sugar on top?

-Bill

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Hi @Cashish

Hope you're well, do you drop in over here from time to time?

Thanks,
Chris

Consistency over time
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