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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist
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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

  #531 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

Sideways ?


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  #532 (permalink)
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If you believe in long /6E this *might* help

EDIT

This is a long term daily chart. Technically for now the shorts are in play. Of course this does not mean everyday is a short - not much in this world travels a straight line.

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-Bill_M


Last edited by WilleeMac; January 31st, 2014 at 11:03 AM.
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  #533 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

More Cashish Nonsense


I caught a fever from my little one, I've been trying to post something since Sunday night and had several ideas come and go. This post is probably going to end up being a bunch of disconnected ideas.

Last week I said I was watching two levels, 1.3700 and 1.3500. U.S. traders never had the opportunity to trade the 1.3700 level,, I'll rephrase that, 1.3700 never traded during the US Session on Monday. 1.3685 on Tuesday and 1.3676 on Wednesday was the best we could do. This first chart shows traders were quick to run to the long side of the trade and on Tuesday (according to the COT Data) were "Net Long" 14,347 contracts. Friday's trade around the 1.3500 level put price back into the area where traders have been getting "Net Short" ,, once again. I highlighted this area.

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This post was meant to be posted on Sunday but it is what it is and I still believe it may be helpful. Looking at the above chart it's obvious there are a series of lower highs as well as lower lows. But in my last post "Sideways" I attempted to point out even though price made lower highs and lower lows, the closes of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were within a 3 tick spread between 1.3666 to 1.3663. This next chart will explain where I'm going with this.

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This chart (above) was my anticipated levels for trade date Feb 3 (Monday) these are the Taylor Numbers I've written about up-thread for those who might be interested. The one set of these numbers I want to include in this post is the Buy High Number. This number is derived each day by subtracting the most current high (today's high) from the previous day's high (yesterday's high) and averaging these sums over 3 periods (3 days). For Monday Feb 3 the Buy High number was 1.3536. On this chart this level is marked using the Blue Dotted Line. What this number signifies to me is, if price continues to hold precedent and continue on a course of printing lower highs, this price level will be a "player" during the trading day. To be fair, there were a lot of significant price levels (IMO) clustered together near what turned out to be Monday's high. Rally Number '29, 50% level '27 and the Buy High Number '36. They ALL traded, and the fact of the matter is 1.3536 was the high. Just more Cashish Non-sense? Probably, but the Buy High number was the high of the day twice (OK -1 tick on one day) last week.

One of the other price levels embedded in the cluster was the 50% level (1.3527) of Friday's range. In an up move, this would be the first level price would have to contend with. I don't care if the 50% level isn't actually a Fibonacci number or not, Fib users chart it. The 50% level of the prior days range is probably the most watched level on the chart. Every Fibonacci Chartist plots it but so do other traders who give very little respect to Fib numbers, Dow Theorist, Gann and Elliot Wave traders all monitor the 50% level, combined that's a lot of traders. My opinion of the 50% level is that it can often be traded as a support or resistance level, of course other times price will blow right through it. Below is a chart of Monday's price movements around the 50% level of Friday's range. I think what is significant in this example is the ease of movement thru the level, and a quick pull back to the level. Yes it was a higher high (left side of chart), and the first few pull back bars appeared to respect the level but they were inside bars going nowhere. I suggest looking for some type of confirmation, one example in this case might be an up bar actually sitting on the line, without a tail hanging under the line, or vice versa of course.

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So this week I think traders are focused on two things, Non Farm Payrolls and Non Farm Payrolls! I'm re-posting (maybe) the first chart of this post because I believe any trade within the gray area has the potential to turn into a full blown short squeeze in a hurry. The lows of Friday and Monday may hold until either Mario (Thursday) or NFP (Friday) give the market a nudge. That being said, the volume of trades traded on Monday was 65% +/- 90,000 higher than the 20 period average of Monday Volume. And Chinese New Year continues on Tuesday.

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While I was writing this price was testing the 50% level of Monday. This is an example of what I want to see, price supported by the line, for how long? Time will tell us.

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Last edited by Cashish; February 4th, 2014 at 08:08 PM.
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  #534 (permalink)
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Following up on my post from above. @Cashish uses 50% retracement (half-way back) and this post is nothing more than taking it to the next level. Primary focus other than participation (price action), 50 retrace etc is to try and identify where the algos are anchoring themselves. Think about that. A computer does not randomly go out and sell this or buy that. They have someone at the helm, steering it through the channel trying to fill their (client) need. Now there's a lot of other things that go in with this, whole numbers, pivots, buy - sell envelopes etc.

However, outside of those numbers, why did it stop where it did? Or retrace at a number other than a "clean" 50%?

-Bill_M

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Last edited by WilleeMac; February 4th, 2014 at 08:20 AM. Reason: spellin, clarity
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  #535 (permalink)
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@WilleeMac you ought to start your own thread, you have a lot to offer and I believe your method of viewing the 6E deserves it's own thread. I'm not trying to run you off, I just think you would be quick to accumulate more participants in your discussions in a "stand alone" Half Way Back thread. I hope you give it some thought, as I said I believe you have a lot to offer.


Did I say I've been fighting a fever the last few days and I'm borderline delirious on occasion? I read thru my last post and realized I failed to mention My Outlook of price movement for the next few days. I believe the next few days leading up to Mario's comments price will test higher. I have to ultimately have my eye on a 50% retrace of the move from 1.3700 to 1.3500. I believe price will be testing 1.3550 and 1.3600 by Thursday when Mario plays his cards. In short I'm looking for sideways to up price movements the next couple days.

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Last edited by Cashish; February 4th, 2014 at 08:44 AM.
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  #536 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

Meat Loaf




I had to post the "old" one


Most futures.io (formerly BMT) members probably don't know who "Meat" is, but maybe a few Old Farts will stop by! And what the hell does meatloaf have to do with trading?

Trendlines and Channels

A friend of mine once told me, "Everybody has a different recipe for drawing trendlines and channels on a chart, kind of like making meatloaf, in the end it usually works." The point he was trying to get across to me was, don't try to draw the perfect trendline or channel. This week I've been looking for price to move sideways to up, this morning I saw a lot of sideways but found myself squinting looking for the up. Prior to the ADP Number I captured this chart.

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I'm looking for an up move so a break of the top of the wedge was game on. Of course the move started to materialize around 8am est just prior to the release of the ADP Number. Below is a 5m chart, price started to ascend off the 50% level of the prior day with a bar that had no tail hanging under the line, a good place for a stop. Price just kept climbing as well as volume, it's "go time" if you wanted to take the trade.

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If you entered long where's your target? The specter of the ADP release at 8:15 est was haunting this trade, so holding into the release was out of the question, for me. Of course the common assumption of many would be target 1.3550, but if you've read this thread you already know I'm an advocate for, Taking profits going to whole numbers not going thru whole numbers. The chart below has an "extra" bar on it now, (today's Thursday) but the levels marked were for Wednesday's trade. The Rally Number 1.3543 was my target. Again this is the 3 period average of price moves from the prior day's low to today's high. The chart above shows 1.3550 didn't trade until after the number was released, at 8:15 which opened at 1.3543.


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Bat out of Hell

Oh,,, the memories of this Rock Opera
on 8 track of course

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  #537 (permalink)
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Great journal Cashish. Enjoy learning from your experience. Here's my take on trend lines so far. Any feedback appreciated.

Justin

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@Cashish

Would like to have more commentary on COT, please

What type of commentary?

OI, change in OI, commercial vs spec, all tied together w/ charts, what you were expecting, how it played out and/ or possibly why.

Seasonality?

Other?

Thank you

-Bill_M

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  #539 (permalink)
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I have a brain splitting headache but wanted to throw this out there and see if the dog carries it off.

I think traders are trying to force their will on the market without the Blessing of Mr. Draghi. Rates were left unchanged but that's all we know. Do I think we could trade on 3400 or 3300, yes but I also believe this market could leave a "Trail of Tears" to get there. So far price hasn't found the LVA of Sunday/Monday's trade (1.3485) which is 14/16 tick rotation under the whole number 1.3500.

The true story will be revealed at the end of the day. Trying to guess direction is meaningless, BUT my 8 Ball says, "Look North!"

This link "should work" http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_140206.en.html


Last edited by Cashish; February 6th, 2014 at 09:24 AM.
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@WilleeMac Are you get'n any?

Of this Wild Thing


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