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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist
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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

  #511 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
I understand FRI was a no brainer but time does come into play

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Cheers

-Bill

EDIT

M30 chart

The lower study is a three RSI - 13, 21 and 34



That 30 minute chart makes it look so easy This morning I was in long, long and boring and boring and boring. I was targeting the 50% line from Friday,,,, seemed like a good idea at the time! But after throwing about 1 Go-zillion darts my ass started growing fast to my chair. When price stuck it's head above '60 I started spoon feeding the market my positions.

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  #512 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

Swing Lows





I thought this was one of those Textbook moves that I just had to post. Of course I have no idea where price will be by the time I post this but while sitting on the edge of my seat this morning "What did I See?" BTW, The video is all for FUN.


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Not to provide an excuse for greater things I do want to say my sleep schedule and trading times are still all over the map! When I did make it to my trading station the EU Session Opens had already put in a nice 30 tick (+-) drop. The FIRST thing that caught my eye was the price at the bottom of the last 5m bar of that move (the low of the day). Just to clarify, since yesterday was a Holiday ,,,, the CME data for Sun, Mon and Tuesday will be combined into (1) trading day. So in truth, the low (1.3527) made at 3:07 a.m. EST this morning is only the low since the Globex Open last night. But we all knew that, right? The next thing I see on the first 5m chart is a bunch of overlapping bars. This represents 2-way trade and in this example the next 7 bars or for 35 minutes price traded within the High and the Low of the last bar of the down move. The 2-way trade continued, and price did inch higher to the 1.3542 level and began to find 2-way trade down into the previous consolidation area, (Value Area). Those aware knew the ZEW Numbers were going to come out at 5 a.m. EST.

This is where this post is going to "step off the reservation," now look at the second chart. I traded in this area yesterday, and these levels were familiar to me, I remembered the low at '23 and thought it could be a contender if price tested the '27 low again. The point I want to make here is; Be aware of how easy it is to get Tunnel Vision when focusing on small(er) time frame charts. I suggest Look Left and then look further, to the left. I see so many charts posted in threads of small time frame trades using swing lows and highs within the last few hours AND those same traders using LARGER time frame charts for their "look back" charts. Often there are swing lows and swing highs buried inside these larger charts that raise havoc with trades taken on shorter time frame charts.

In this example, a stop to protect a LONG position 1,2 or 3 ticks under the swing low of 1.3527 was probably taken out, BUT a stop 1,2 or three ticks under YESTERDAY'S swing low at '23 was Golden. That's all I have to say about that!


Last edited by Cashish; January 21st, 2014 at 10:07 AM.
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  #513 (permalink)
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Cashish View Post
I want to thank everyone for the continued support, information and prayers, Thank You.

My Daughter has been walking around with wires taped on her monitoring "whatever" it is they (doctors) monitor. She has passed all the requirements, which means, She's healthy enough for the surgery. Tuesday, she will have her kidney removed. The doctors are saying, NO KIDNEY = NO CANCER


Like @eminitrdr says, "Ya gotta hitch your wagon to something"... I've got mine hitched to this Kid ,,, I mean Surgeon.


All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE



Thanks guys for your continued support

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  #514 (permalink)
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Cashish View Post
All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE



Thanks guys for your continued support

Awesome news Cashish, very very glad to hear it.

Mike

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  #515 (permalink)
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Todays Funny

My wife (Terri) and I have decided to buy an ass load of stock in the Hindsight Corporation - guaranteed to provide a return, eventually

-Bill

P.S.

Cashman glad to hear that about your daughter

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  #516 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Awesome news Cashish, very very glad to hear it.

Mike

My Confession,

When she came home from the Doctor's visit and told me the news we just held each other and cried buckets of tears. I don't care how old she is, in my heart and in my arms, she's still that little girl from long ago.


@Big Mike

This

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is what makes
Big Mike's
the best trading forum on the


PLANET


My Thanks to each of you

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  #517 (permalink)
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Cashish View Post
All the Tests are Back,

my Daughter is

Cancer FREE


I've found in my life as well as my trading the sooner I can turn a tragedy into a comedy the sooner I can move on. The day after my Daughter received the "All Clear" from her doctor she hit something lying on the interstate while driving home from visiting a friend. She saw whatever it was fly into the air out her rearview mirror but everything seemed fine so she continued on her journey. Unknown to her, whatever it was she hit ripped out the left front brake line! As she approached the exit ramp several miles up the road and applied the brake,,,,, it went clear to the floor!

She pumped the brake and had the wit to pull the emergency brake to bring everything to a stop without incident.

Good grief, I guess when your "numbers up" your numbers up! I believe we are all living through a temporary existence on this planet and although we may think we have all the time in the world to pursue or dreams, we may not.

Please,,,, believe in and pursue your dreams with passion, today! Live your life with happiness and share it with everyone around you. This afternoon you may not be living the life you lived this morning!


OK, I'm ready to get this thread back on track, back to the topic of trading!

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  #518 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

Now What?


I think Thursday's move caught more than a few traders by surprise. The PMI numbers out France lit the fuse and when the rocket pulled out of the week's Value Area there was no stopping it. I also believe several comments out of Davos helped support price at these levels but I'm questioning any further or how much further this rally may go. Basically there was no news out of the U.S. last week and the "Fed Fathers" have been under their gag order until they meet this week. This week the tables are turned, a lot of news and data coming out of the U.S.. Keep an eye on release times and don't fly to close to the flame! Another factor to keep in mind is Chinese New Year, it always has a way of changing the "feel" of the market. Looking back at last week I also have to mention Martin Luther King Day, the reason I bring that up is the COT Report. We all know the COT Report is compiled after the end of trading on Tuesdays and since all the trades from Sunday's open to the Tuesday close were squeezed into one trading day, a closer look might be helpful. When I look at Tuesdays and compile a "projection" of what I believe traders might be doing in regards to the COT Report I only consider the range during U.S. Session. I have a chart below with more detail on this.

I'm looking at two levels 1.3700 and 1.3500

I think the failure to actually trade above 1.3700 during the U.S. session and the close of Friday near the low is significant. I figure there were 40-50,000 contracts traded up there, and there are probably enough longer term traders holding positions to generate some excitement if price returns to "feel out" those levels. But IMO, price will bide its time in Friday's Value Area ('95-'75) and lower until something or someone provides a stimulant.

With no news out of the U.S. for the most part all last week traders made the best of the EU data. But throughout the month of January both the Large Spec and the Commercials have been on the same side of the market. Friday's COT report shows Large Spec net short for the second time (last time was 11-26-13) since August. This first chart shows what I was talking to above, the "extended" Tuesday due to the MLK Holiday, it is a 1 hour chart. The BIG rectangle is/was considered Tuesday by the CME data, the smaller area within the rectangle highlights the hours between 8am and 12pm est.. That is the area (time) I use when looking at COT data, the fact is prices traded within this range and at the end of the day the Large Spec reported net short. The "quirk" here is, since the data for open interest and volume on this particular "extended" Tuesday includes all trades since the Sunday Night Globex Open I cannot use Wednesday's open interest numbers as a comparison and generate any meaningful outcome at that time during the week.


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But if the past behavior of traders holds any significance of the current behavior of traders (and I believe it does) then this chart would suggest Large Spec are willing to short prices in this area (note Nov 26.. net short -431). Friday's COT Report concurred with my theory, Large Spec ended the day net short.


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Here are two charts of the Volume Profile from the Sunday Night Globex Open until the Thursday move to 1.3699. The top chart shows only the Value Area and how it unfolded during the week. Talk about a breakout! IMO, this market was ready to go either way, all it was waiting on was news, obviously the news was "Euro" good! I did some study of this breakout and at 2:58 am when the numbers came out the 1 minute bar printed a low of 1.3574 and a high of 1.3603. Not really all that exciting. But what I thought was fascinating was the volume of this bar, 4,350 contracts traded in 1 minute. The speed of price movements in today's markets can make your head spin. The 29 tick range of this 1 minute bar happened during the first 1 second of trading, of the 4.350 contracts traded within this 1 minute bar, 2,433 of those contracts traded during the first 1 second. Remember, this is a 5m chart!


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OK, so all this brings us back to today, Sunday Night. Where does price go from here? I think sideways to down leading up to Wednesday's news. That spike up on Friday left 2 ticks in the "New Year's Gap" and that might have been to tough to fill. Ought to be an interesting week and I'll be looking for a nice inside day opportunity to develop.

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  #519 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

The Opinions of Others

Today we get a peek at some U.S. Data, Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence both of these can move this market. I've been eyeing two levels, the 50% line of Thursday's move (1.3614) and the 50% Fib retracement of the move from 1.3506 to 1.3740 (1.3623). Ultimately my opinion is price will test for support at 1.3600, today. Below is a 1 Hour chart with these levels marked.

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I think the market is going up, I think the market is going down,, I think we're going sideways. Everyone has a belief of future price movement, and everyone usually trades that belief. Sure, all three opinions are correct, or they will be at some point in time, in the future. Six months from now when price is trading on 1.3600 after trading on 1.4200 I'll "quote" this post and say, "I told you so!" The point I want to make is, we have to develop our own opinions about the future movement of prices, if we don't, we might as well let someone else trade our account for us. If you're a follower of my post, Don't believe a word I say get out there and do your own homework, form your own opinions/beliefs about price movements. Following someone else, just doesn't work. I may feel comfortable selling a pair right here at '50 and adding 3 more at '60 and stop them all out at '70 risking $875.00 on a trade that if price goes to 1.3600 as my analysis suggests the position will pay me $3500.00. Then there's always the news getting in the way of a Damn good idea as I posted in the last post for example, any position I may be DREAMING about may be destroyed in less than a second. Analyse the market and keep boiling down your analysis until it fits your trading time frame or "comfort zone" then believe in it, and trade it! THIS takes time, as with anything we do for the first time but I guarantee you it's the only way. Write it down, Why do I believe price is going here, When do I believe it will get there, What actions will I take at what levels and why will I take those actions, these are only a few questions you may ask yourself to start the process. In short, don't believe me or anyone else on blind faith alone, get out there and verify every comment of every "guru" and find out for yourself. Own them, form all your own (personal) trading Opinions.

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  #520 (permalink)
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Pink Floyd part deux


Here's a study that I wrote for Think or Swim which marks the highs and lows of the hours shown in the upper left corner. The hour marks can be adjusted, I happen to like these. As well, the green circles mark the high and low of the first candle for that hour (regardless of time frame) and the red squares mark the half hour.

For me I find it quite interesting how certain hours will interact with each other/ one another.

This isn't intended to take away from the excellent work that @Cashish (Cashman) has put together - as Bart would say "Oh, contraire mon frère" - I think it adds to it.

Does it always work? No. However a hell of a lot of times it does, check it out.

Cheers

Ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-Bill_M

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EDIT

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Last edited by WilleeMac; January 29th, 2014 at 11:49 AM. Reason: clarity, add
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