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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist


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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

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  #491 (permalink)
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
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WilleeMac View Post
Is a picture worth a thousand word?




-Bill

Sometimes I find your posts vague and nondescript. Can you give me a little more direction to build a reply on?

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  #492 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
Prospect, KY. USA
 
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What Im thinking is after the run up since the beginning of NOV and the daily measured move short broken at 3628 on this past THU and FRI, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Of course this is subject to change at the drop of the hat, open of the mouth.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

Although this is not a very in depth description/ discussion, I think we may have a start at what will unfold through the end of 2013.

-Bill


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  #493 (permalink)
 Cashish 
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WilleeMac View Post
What Im thinking is after the run up since the beginning of NOV and the daily measured move short broken at 3628 on this past THU and FRI, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Of course this is subject to change at the drop of the hat, open of the mouth.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

Although this is not a very in depth description/ discussion, I think we may have a start at what will unfold through the end of 2013.

-Bill

Thanks @WilleeMac I'm going to turn you into a "Chatty Cathy" yet.

I think you have described a pretty good read of the COT data. For conversation's sake I'll comment on these two sentences I've extracted from your post.


Quoting 
.......Im thinking ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

If you read what you wrote, you might realize you can't have it both ways. Not you per se, but the commercial traders you are analyzing. Have you ever heard the terms, smart money and dumb money? Usually this means Large Spec/smart money and Small Spec/dumb money. So where do the Commercials fit in, I assure you they are smart money or maybe a better definition would be smart complicated money. As you said, "commercial short is a hedge," the question is a hedge against what? A good rule of thumb is if the Commercials are short in the Futures Market, they are long in the Cash Market. I say complicated because in the Currency market it's a little more difficult to fathom what exactly they are hedging, it could be any number of cross rates or interest rates. For a simpler understanding think of a farmer hedging his soy bean crop that is sitting safe and secure in his grain bin just outside his backdoor. He's NOT looking to make money on his hedge, he's only attempting to secure the future value of his crop (not lose money). What I'm trying to say is, follow the Large Specs, the commercials are playing a completely different game. Large Spec are just that, large speculators (I think the reporting level in the 6E is 400 contracts!), speculating on the future price movement. Furthermore, on the surface it may appear the commercials are on the wrong side of the market, but if the majority of them are hedging positions in other markets, they're actually Happy Campers.

I thought I posted this link up thread (maybe not). I believe Carley Garner does a great job in this webinar introducing the basics of the COT Data as well as answering many common questions. I give it a thumbs up


Decoding the Commitment of Traders Report to Identify Overcrowded Trades

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  #494 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
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The upper graph is the close price of the week (FRI) for the COT release on TUE of that said week.

After listening to the video (above link,) I'm watching the spec vs the hedgers - non-report in this six month segment seems to be negligible.

I'll start working on the last six months of this year.

And yes we can glean information from this, thank you @Cashish.

-Bill



Data set

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  #495 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
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-Bill


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  #496 (permalink)
 Cashish 
Miami FL USA
 
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There's no School like the Old School

Once, twice or thrice?

For me, this is going to be a short post. I don't trade much during the month of December but I sure enjoy the solitude of sitting here in the still and quiet of the middle of the night! Actually, I find it calming, as long as I stay focused on trading and reading my charts. Due to the situation with my Daughter, staying focused is tough and my time here has been pretty much "hit or miss." Like most of us (I assume), I keep an eye on price movements when I'm away from my screen and piece together a plan in my head. This morning I was looking for rotation inside Yesterday's Value Area, I got it straight out of the gate around the open of the European Session. I stripped down this chart but there were many significant (according to My analysis) price levels embedded near the morning's high. Traders familiar with the 6E know what they were/are. I got short above Yesterday's POC and settled in for a slow grind lower but when those crazy Brits joined the party, well, the price movement had me thinking of the Steamroller Blues!









Thank you, Thank you very much

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  #497 (permalink)
 eminitrdr 
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Another distinct trade location possibility that made sense to me...IMO

Still recuperating from a recent surgery. Back to the Dr. today to get stitches removed. I'm not able to spend much time at my trading station...certainly not as much as I'd like.

As Mr. Cashish has emphasized time and again, it's all about RISK. Scaled in near y-day's VAL...stop below y-day's low...target y-day's POC.

Good trading to all and Happy Holidays, especially you Mr. Cashish

emini

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  #498 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
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Norman Bates is officially at the helm of the /6E algo machine

-Bill

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 eminitrdr 
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Basically the same trade as yesterday. I didn't have the time or patience to hold on unfortunately.

I scaled in near y-day's VAL 1.3767...covered all, after more than an hour, at 73-74....initial stop just below whole number 1.3750. Oh well, it happens.

"Ya gotta hitch your wagon to something"...

emini

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 Cashish 
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eminitrdr View Post
Basically the same trade as yesterday. .

"Ya gotta hitch your wagon to something"...

emini


I've been looking for a move down to 1.3700 all week. I think your entries on the two days you posted were my targets. I hope you didn't try for 3 out of 3 this morning!

I took a long during the Asian session and went to sleep in my chair , my stop survived by 1 tick, but also MISSED my target (50% line) by one tick.

Set an alert line and and was able to sell the drop thru, Yesterday's Settle '43, Yesterday's LVA '39, Yesterday's Low '36, Wednesday's Low '40 Was eyeing two targets, Monday's POC '21 and the Buy Number '19 Bought the 21s,,, then loaded the boat again on a bounce and bought the '19s





I've been trading the March contract.


I want to thank everyone for the continued support, information and prayers, Thank You.

My Daughter has been walking around with wires taped on her monitoring "whatever" it is they (doctors) monitor. She has passed all the requirements, which means, She's healthy enough for the surgery. Tuesday, she will have her kidney removed. The doctors are saying, NO KIDNEY = NO CANCER


Like @eminitrdr says, "Ya gotta hitch your wagon to something"... I've got mine hitched to this Kid ,,, I mean Surgeon.

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