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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist


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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

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  #401 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Adamus View Post
The problem with the M6E that I can see is that you pay a huge spread - I'm seeing a 20 tick spread on it at the moment,

That is not normal. You are outside RTH and holiday, this is why.

Mike

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 lifeguardsteve88 
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Adamus View Post
The problem with the M6E that I can see is that you pay a huge spread - I'm seeing a 20 tick spread on it at the moment, compared to 2 ticks on the 6E.

Are you sure you saw 20? I'm on there practically 24/7 (including all of this Holiday weekend) and the widest I saw was 5, and that's a rare event for the times I've been on it.

Cheers!

(perhaps you were on the M6A?)

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  #403 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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Big Mike View Post
That is not normal. You are outside RTH and holiday, this is why.

Mike

Oh right, forgot about that. Just got back from holiday myself, hadn't looked at the calendar.


lifeguardsteve88 View Post
Are you sure you saw 20? I'm on there practically 24/7 (including all of this Holiday weekend) and the widest I saw was 5, and that's a rare event for the times I've been on it.

Cheers!

(perhaps you were on the M6A?)

5? That's great. Must be the difference between Stage5 and Interactive Brokers. I just checked again (time of this message) and the spread is 45. I'll check after the CME open. There might be something funny going on with it at IB, it's obviously not tradeable with a spread like that.

And it's definitely the Euro/$ - at least I can trust IB to tell me the symbol correctly.

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  #404 (permalink)
 WilleeMac 
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I think @Cashish 's point was to get the head in the game. I've a DOM up on 6E and M6E, and whilst M6E lags 6E it generally keeps up w/ 6E (has to.) When M6E gets more attention/ liquidity (which it will) it will/ should go hand in hand.

I use Infinity for sim trading which is actually more difficult than live because w/ Infinity in order to get filled on sim it has to trade through it vs other sim accounts (TOS) it just has to touch it.

In my very humble opinion regardless of trading live or sim, if we don't treat sim as skin in the game then we are wasting our time

#my2cents

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 lifeguardsteve88 
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Adamus View Post
5? That's great. Must be the difference between Stage5 and Interactive Brokers. I just checked again (time of this message) and the spread is 45. I'll check after the CME open. There might be something funny going on with it at IB, it's obviously not tradeable with a spread like that.

And it's definitely the Euro/$ - at least I can trust IB to tell me the symbol correctly.

I'm new to all this, but I think there is something wrong here. When dealing with a CME futures product, the spread for everyone, regardless of broker, is going to be the same (unlike spot fx). So if you are looking at the M6E (CME micro future for EUR/$), it will be the same for everyone. And I can assure you that I have never seen a bid/ask tick spread of more than 5 ticks on the M6E (and during the Euro/US RTH combined sessions it's 4 or less- and normally a 1 to 3 tick spread).

Cheers!

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  #406 (permalink)
 josh 
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Adamus View Post
5? That's great. Must be the difference between Stage5 and Interactive Brokers. I just checked again (time of this message) and the spread is 45. I'll check after the CME open. There might be something funny going on with it at IB, it's obviously not tradeable with a spread like that.

And it's definitely the Euro/$ - at least I can trust IB to tell me the symbol correctly.

Broker does not matter with this--it sounds like you are looking at the wrong month.

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Adamus View Post
5? That's great. Must be the difference between Stage5 and Interactive Brokers. I just checked again (time of this message) and the spread is 45.

If you are quoting Spot Forex on IB it will be a different price than M6E CME FX Futures. All forex banks have their own spot price. Each month the variance will change depending on all kinds of conditions, the point is you cannot compare Spot Forex price to Futures price.

Other than that, you are most likely looking at the wrong front month as someone else mentioned.

I also am unsure why you are factoring two brokers into this equation. The bid/ask spread should be calculated using a single broker and looking at the difference in price from the bid and ask. For the M6E, it will almost always be 1 or 2 ticks. Anything else and I think you are looking at the wrong thing.

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  #408 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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You're right, I'm confusing forex and futures - I know the M6E is exchange-traded, so I should have realised the bid-ask spread should be the same whoever your broker is. Plus I was looking at December, not Sept. Thought Sept would be expiring soon. The spread on M6E U3 is currently '74 - '76. So I take it back, ignore my comment. Sorry for interrupting your thread with my ignorance, Cashish. I was just superimposing my bad experience of trading $25K forex order size on what you said - another thing with that is that the high commissions-to-profit ratio just distorted what I felt would be a realistic equity curve in my trials with IB. Would this be the same problem with M6E or is the commission less here?

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 WilleeMac 
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@Adamus

Please keep in mind that cash is always king, ' da BIG MIKE.

Futures (/6E, /HE, /LE, /OJ, /ZN etc) are nothing more than a product to hedge your position, exposure

Unlike spot forex they are regulated and processed on an open transparent exchange

Mr Hunsader at @nanexllc might disagree w/ that last statement

Also /6E futs (depending on rollover) will be different by 1, 2 ticks/p or more

-Bill

EDIT

More times than not the front month is the most liquid - again think of limiting exposure

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 WilleeMac 
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I'm in the process of putting together a spread sheet that tracks the following hours. 2am to 4am, 4am to 6am, 6am to 8am, 8am to 10am and 10am to 12noon.

The project originally started out from @Cashish 's provocative comment "what is the range....."

So I started logging the range for those hours. I then noticed something fairly consistent of reversals typically(?) happening at those times

So far (I've done nothing with continuation) for the past 31 weeks we have 155 MON, TUE etc. Of these it seems we have a 40% chance of a reversal occurring at 4, 6, 8 and 10am. 8am has the highest at 43%. Hmmmm pit opens at 0820am.

More on this as I comb through the numbers

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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Adamus View Post
The problem with the M6E that I can see is that you pay a huge spread - I'm seeing a 20 tick spread on it at the moment, compared to 2 ticks on the 6E.


Big Mike View Post
That is not normal.


lifeguardsteve88 View Post
Are you sure you saw 20? I'm on there practically 24/7 (including all of this Holiday weekend) and the widest I saw was 5, and that's a rare event for the times I've been on it.


josh View Post
Broker does not matter with this--it sounds like you are looking at the wrong month.


WilleeMac
Unlike spot forex they are regulated and processed on an open transparent exchange

Mr Hunsader at @nanexllc might disagree w/ that last statement

I'm glad you guys got this sorted out in my absence,
Thanks
@josh @Big Mike @lifeguardsteve88 and @WilleeMac for stepping up and offering sound guidance to get things back on track.



Adamus View Post
....... another thing with that is that the high commissions-to-profit ratio just distorted what I felt would be a realistic equity curve in my trials with IB. Would this be the same problem with M6E or is the commission less here?

@Adamus ,,Thank You for the line of questions and concerns you pointed out, I'm sure this discussion will be very helpful in clearing up many thoughts traders may have who are not familiar with the M6E (micro Euro Futures contract) in the future. To answer the last couple questions, No, the commissions-to-profit ratio is not the same. The commission on a single "side" of a single contract through Interactive Brokers is $.33 (33 cents), that makes a "round turn" $.66 (66 cents). That being said, if anyone trades using the NinjaTtader Static DOM as I do, they will have to pay the NT "I stole the code, and my customers pay my fine," fee of $.10 (ten cents) on each side of the trade, or an additional $.20 (twenty cents) for each "round turn," but, a one tick trade is still profitable.







WilleeMac
I think @Cashish 's point was to get the head in the game.

In my very humble opinion regardless of trading live or sim, if we don't treat sim as skin in the game then we are wasting our time


The idea of trading the M6E, although it's not for everyone is two fold, first it allows you to trade "I don't care size," and second, and IMO most importantly, it brings RISK into the game.

From the CME website, "CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk."

Let's face it there is no risk involved when using a simulator. You can add accountability to simulated trading by letting "someone else" control your simulator e.g., Top Step Trader, Stage 5 but in all reality there is absolutely NO RISK involved in any single trade. At some point we all have to cut the umbilical cord that safely connects us to the simulator, RISK is what cuts the cord. IMO, it is the RISK and the management of that risk that kills traders. We've all heard the stories and read the threads where a trader went from consistently profitable on a simulator to "crash and burn" in a live, cash account. The difference is M-O-N-E-Y or risk if you will, until we add the element of RISK (money) to our trading we are playing a very elaborate VIDEO GAME. Trading is about money and it's NOT about money, we need to learn to manage risk, to do that we have to add MONEY. When we add money (risk) trading is no longer about money, now it's about psychology. For some reason, traders act differently when they are losing $500 of real money as compared to $500 on a simulator, THIS is the psychology of trading that can ONLY be tapped into when "Real Risk" is apparent in the trade, real risk doesn't exist in a simulator.

So the idea is, the M6E will allow traders to put a toe in the water and bring "Real Risk" into the equation and at the same time offers the ability to trade "I don't care size."


"Stupid is as Stupid Does"


I believe I've made every stupid mistake a trader can make, and still do on occasion! Here's an example of what COULD happen when a newbie trader is ill prepared. Lets assume two things; 1. Our trader was NOT aware of the trading volume shifting from the Sept contract to the Dec contract. 2. Our trader was NOT aware that his stop order was a market order.

IMO, these are the types of trading errors that can be experienced with the M6E and NOT cost a trader a significant amount of their trading account. Lets assume newbie wanted to hold his Thursday short trade overnight expecting a continuation of the apparent down trend, to hold the trade newbie put his stop 1 tick above Thursday's high at 1.3226. Unaware the volume in the Sept contract was shifting to the Dec contract and not being familiar with roll over dates this seemed like a good idea. The First chart shows one hour of price movement in the December M6E contract at the Open for the Friday session. The second chart shows the "opening second" of the September M6E contract at the same time, the Open for the Friday session.








This is an exaggerated example, but it did happen! Here's the tape for the opening second at ":00:43 newbie's stop or stops at '26 was/were filled at either '30, '40 or '48 before price returned to continue lower, just as he expected.




Could this same scenario play out in the 6E contract, of course, especially when trading so near to the Last Trading Day of the contract. The point I want to make is the market (any market) is made up of many moving parts, it is our job to learn and understand those parts, if we don't situations like this will whack us again and again. Remember this example ain't some wild random price move, this was a well played stop run by someone who knew exactly what they were doing, taking "candy" from a newbie.

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  #412 (permalink)
 Cashish 
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WilleeMac View Post
I'm in the process of putting together a spread sheet that tracks the following hours. 2am to 4am, 4am to 6am, 6am to 8am, 8am to 10am and 10am to 12noon.

The project originally started out from @Cashish 's provocative comment "what is the range....."

So I started logging the range for those hours. I then noticed something fairly consistent of reversals typically(?) happening at those times

So far (I've done nothing with continuation) for the past 31 weeks we have 155 MON, TUE etc. Of these it seems we have a 40% chance of a reversal occurring at 4, 6, 8 and 10am. 8am has the highest at 43%. Hmmmm pit opens at 0820am.

More on this as I comb through the numbers

-Bill


Just wanted to wave a flag of caution, Time Changes. I think it is important to keep the "Spring ahead and Fall behind," time changes in the forefront of our minds when analyzing LARGE chunks of data, for obvious reasons when slicing up the day into segments of Time. Since there is a difference when the time changes occur in Europe and the U.S. I feel a little more focus is required to keep the analysis "pure." Also, as I'm sure you are aware, NEWS will pay a major role in expanding the range at specific times,,,, month after month. Lastly, and I sure don't want to detour your analysis, these moves often happen VERY fast, and finding a method to capture the reversals that you may uncover ain't that easy. I've had limited success catching the highs and/or lows of these moves using a projected 3 & 4 Standard Deviation level generated off the VWAP study. Interestingly enough, this is the type of trade theory I test on the M6E, the micro contract allows me to weather the erratic movements when the algos are off-line and the liquidity is basically zero, if only for a few seconds. If anyone analyzes the volume on the high tick or low tick of most any days high or low, no matter when or how it was made, they'll usually find very few contracts traded there,,,, but on the daily chart IT IS the high or low for the day.

I might be making more of your comment than I should but NOW I feel I have to clarify my actions. I don't want to leave the impression that the trades I place on the M6E are nothing more than a "crap shoot." I believe a high percentage of the trading in the 6E is computer generated and I also believe if we as retail "little guys" can think more like computers we will have a greater chance of success. It is my belief that computers read price levels, levels generated by studies, I believe one of those studies is the VWAP. This particular trade is based on the notion that IF price quickly rockets 3 or 4 Std Dev away from the mean on low liquidity the "Black Boxes" will fade the move (when they "return" to the market) with the expectation price will "come to its senses" and trade back toward the mean. This isn't some "Yee Haw" trade, my theory is based on analyzing price behavior around these levels during different times of day and different economic reports. What makes markets fast, computers. There are as many different algos, based on as many different market theories as there are programmers. IF one price level triggers a few trading programs to start selling, this selling in return can trigger another set of MOMENTUM based programs to enter the market and drive price lower. If/when price is driven lower and trades on another "line in the sand" this could trigger programs to come on-line and start buying,,,,,, starting the cycle all over again. IMO, the whole notion of price discovery as it was achieved on the trading floor is gone. Now, IMO equilibrium is achieved by Who's, Which and How Many computer programs are actively running in the market, the result is the same, equilibrium is achieved but IMO it happens much faster, and on the flip side, I believe the gravitational pull of the equilibrium level is much greater.

It's still trading and support and resistance levels still appear "after the fact" on our charts, but it only takes a couple trading programs to "feed off each other" and inch the bid or the offer to another level that brings another program on-line, then another, then another. Again, My opinion, but I believe this is why individual traders have more success during different times of the day, the programs simply aren't running. Why aren't they running, one reason MIGHT be volume. I want to rephrase that, the programs ARE running but until a certain amount of volume or some other criteria enters within a certain time period they remain dormant, whether its (N) volume per tick or (N) volume on either side of the order book or the London Open who knows, it's a computer program, but it's obvious MOST are programmed to go off-line during economic report releases.

Trading is a tough way to make money, but I believe the more I "think like a computer" the better I understand price movements. @WilleeMac Sorry, but this post kinda got away from me readers can take what they want and leave the rest.

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Here's a screen shot form yesterday, IMO self-explanatory



Second screen shot from yesterday




Of course all things are subjective and can change at the drop of a hat

-Bill_M

EDIT

*for the volume channel (I guess it's not a profile) to redraw within the hour reset, the most recent channel must have more volume than the previous

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 kman 
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Bill M,

If I may ask, what are the green and fuchia lines representing?

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 WilleeMac 
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Sorry about that I guess that could be considered rude, flippant

What the chart(s) is showing are volume channels that are calculated from the volume on a one minute bar, starting over each hour as set in the study parameters (Can be done w/ M5, M15 - 2AM, 3AM etc)

The study is set to re-calculate/ re-set each hour the volume channel for each one minute period. The channel will not change/ re-anchor at a new price (high/ low) until a subsequent one minute bar has more volume

@Cashish taught me to look for volume at price X and for price Y to respect the price action associated w/ price X, volume

6AM open traded up and started a new volume channel. 602AM started a new/ different channel (more volume than the open), traded up to the high and fell away (started a 50% re-trace/ full re-trace?) Subsequent candles could not penetrate the low of the current volume channel and price went lower.

0620AM started a new channel albeit on low volume but it was technically an increase in volume, new channel.

0644AM started a new channel based on increased volume compared to the previous channel. The following candles did not produce more volume (no new channel) tested session lows, small rotation around whole number 3350 and subsequently price found equilibrium/ fair value.

0700AM opened and re-set the volume channel(s), found new volume and started a new channel. As she went into the hour new (more) volume was found and started a new channel at 0705AM. The following price action could not close below the high/ close of 0705 bar or close 50% into the bar that started this channel.

The rest my friends is history - wash, rinse, repeat

The price action at 0900AM that marked a reversal is a story for a different day, the guys and gals here are smarter than me and can do a much better job of explaining it.

I guess what I'm trying to get at is "things happen at weird hours" and knowing that along with volume *might* give an edge

Some how in my mind this goes back to what/ why @Cashish started this thread - price action and volume.

I just added the time element (actually @Cashish did, some of the original posts in this thread)

Cheers

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

Want to improve your trading,,, Go Back to Bed!


Cashish View Post
You have to develop on your own strict discipline for all aspects of your trading. Everything from eating and sleeping to changing the batteries in your mouse and controlling your risk. You have to be it all and do it all there is no-one else.


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@Cashish,

Thank you

-Bill

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 WilleeMac 
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I know this has nothing to do with trading /6E but this is fu**** hilarious

Let Go, Let Gov (Season 17, Episode 1) - Full Episode Player - South Park Studios

Nothing better than some good laughter to get the brain going

Cheers

-Bill

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WilleeMac View Post
I know this has nothing to do with trading /6E but this is fu**** hilarious

Let Go, Let Gov (Season 17, Episode 1) - Full Episode Player - South Park Studios

Nothing better than some good laughter to get the brain going

Cheers

-Bill

Hi Bill !!! You are my man ! I love these guys and all the meanings behind it !!!

Great post! Thanks....

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

When it comes to the Gov Shutdown, I feel like I'm

On My Own






She's what, almost 70 years old,,,,,, gotta love it!


My uncle used to say, "The right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing!" I believe the situation with the shutdown is changing minute by minute and trying to figure out what's actually going to happen within the next hour is impossible. I've decided to let 'em go and not attempt any trades around the scheduled release times, I'll wait and see if the number actually comes out first (or not), and look to trade a piece of the reaction.





I remember during the last shutdown, my Wife and I were visiting the Grand Canyon and when we approached the Entry Point the Ranger there informed us the Government had shutdown. "However, even though the government is shutdown the Park is OPEN ,,,, but we cannot collect an entry fee please enjoy your stay," is what he said. So, we got in for free and saved a few bucks, who would have figured!

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There's no School like the Old School

No NFP Numbers Tomorrow, Let's See About That






Labor Department Won?t Release U.S. Payrolls Report Tomorrow - Bloomberg

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

No Numbers, No Traders?

This government shut down is really hitting home here at the "Casa de Cashish." Now it's personal, my Grand Daughter's kindergarten field trip was canceled this week!! All kidding aside, (although she was/is very disappointed) I'm suffering from "data withdraw" and have been sitting on the sidelines for the most part. This will probably be the second Friday without the COT data from the CFTC and as I've written before I keep an eye on this data each week. I'm NOT saying trading is impossible with one arm tied behind my back, I'm just saying I have a method, and for the last couple weeks several of the components of that method are unavailable for interpretation , not only to me but all traders who depend on the data, and I believe there are many.

Don't get me wrong, those who need to be in the market are still there, I think we can all see that by the consistent high levels of OI (open interest) over the last eleven days, but if I compare the volume of the + 100 tick range of Wednesday to an Intra-day average I have to believe the 25-30% shortfall of contracts traded may be due to more than a few traders sitting on the sidelines waiting for some closure to this shut down fiasco.

Maybe Tomorrow









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Maybe Next Week!





From the CFTC website

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Maybe Next Week!





From the CFTC website


Or Not


Well, the CFTC did post something, but as with most .gov websites the information is vague. On Oct 25,2013 they posted the COT report for trades ending Oct 1, 2013. What's up with that? The scheduled release dates are/were Oct 4, 11, 18 and 25 so this report is one of the "missed" reports. I certainly don't know the plan of how the CFTC is going to catch up and get current with the data but it may appear (to me anyway) instead of posting the current data and "back-filling" they might spoon feed us the data going forward. Bummer



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................... it may appear (to me anyway) instead of posting the current data and "back-filling" they might spoon feed us the data going forward.


Another COT report was released today








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And Another Today


At this rate, the CFTC should/could be current on Friday



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Happy

Hall
oween



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Darn

Thinking more of Jamie Lee Curtis

Oops, sorry Trading Places

-Bill_M

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Tonight we're all back on the same page, London 0 GMT and New York -5 GMT

Please remember to "Fall" back your clocks tonight

Last week only we had New York 4am and London 8am

This week and for several months to come we have New York 3am and London 8am

Cheers

-Bill

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,,,,,,,, it may appear (to me anyway) instead of posting the current data and "back-filling" they might spoon feed us the data going forward.


I sure thought the CFTC was going to get current with the COT data,,, but NOT today!





@WilleeMac ,,,,At your request, I'm slowly putting together another post with more detail of how I use the COT data.

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a golden nugget appears.

@Cashish #194


Quoting 
The purpose of the following chart is to show what is possible in a tight range bound market. This is no time for me to be surfing the web or typing in the chat box, I need to be completely and intensely focused on the price action. Any interruption of my focus (T.V., ringing phone, children or pets) can make the difference between a good day and a day I question my analysis and skill. Targets are tight and small, I find days like this very stressful but I've always believed I had to learn to trade what the market offers during the time I've set aside for trading. My suggestions to anyone attempting this is, get focused, tighten up your jock strap, get out on the end of your seat and hang on tight to your saddle horn.

I'm reposting this here on the back end of the thread. Why? Because I know from first hand experience "folks" like to skim the former and peruse the latter etc.

And I can say again from first hand experience he could not speak any truer (and harder) words to live by.

I guess in a nutshell how many times have I (we) said to myself how in the f*** did I miss that one? Plain as day, WTF? What happened? What was I doing? Oh yeah right. Damn it, son of a.....

It all reduces down to price action/ volume (participation.)

Keep the rubber side down.

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Daily /6E




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There's no School like the Old School

From Montana to Miami



In the Chat Box (#4) @WilleeMac asked, "Can you expand on the use of COT data please thank you" this post is my response to that query. First, forgive me for not commenting at all to your question before now, but my time at my trading computer has been spread pretty thin this weekend. I find that some answers to questions just create more questions, as this one may.

I want to drop back to basics first and touch on what the COT data reveals. It is a snapshot of what's going on "inside" the Open Interest, of ONE DAY. That day is Tuesday. Only the contracts that remain open at the close of trading on Tuesdays are included in the data, NOT the intra-day volume of all contracts traded. Why does the CFTC choose Tuesday, I have no idea. Although the data is released weekly, (Friday to Friday) the data only includes data for one day, the previous Tuesday. I hope I've made that clear. If anyone finds interest in this post please refer back to the "short forms" I posted. There is a line of data in the short form that compares the "Changes in Open Interest" to the previous report. This "change" remember is the change from Tuesday to Tuesday. Also, there is a line of data of the "Number of Traders in each Category" this again is the change from Tuesday to Tuesday. I've found most "Day Traders" (small retail) shy away for analyzing the COT data mostly because the data from Tuesday isn't posted and isn't available for personal analysis until Friday afternoon. By then many traders believe the data is "to old" to glean any significant or meaningful analysis that could be used in their short time frame day trading methods, I disagree.

For those willing to do the work required, all this data is available on the CFTC website; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on the right side of the Homepage is a link to Commitment of Traders, view our weekly report. As I said, this data is usually updated Friday afternoon, usually. Since the September 24, 2013 report the CFTC has NOT and still isn't current with the release of the reports! We all know the reason is due to the government shut down as why the data isn't current and is still trickling in. So why did Mr Cashish develop such a hard on for the data and HOPE the CFTC would post the current data at the next scheduled release date (on October 22) at the end of the shut-down and then back-fill the historic data, that's where this post is going.


FWIW, I find writing these posts difficult, I confess I've posted some pretty lame instructions, but remember this isn't as easy as writing directions on how to open a ketchup bottle!

I've posted before, know your market, I believe this is especially true when implementing the COT data. I guarantee you if you study this data, you will get to know your market on a much deeper level (than most traders). I put this post together and focused on one (maybe two) lines of data available in the COT short form. The numbers I watch and the timing of the Gov shut-down couldn't have come at a worst time, lets do this!


What I'm looking for here is what many traders call an "over crowded" market, over crowded by the amount of willing buyers or willing sellers on either side of the market. Of course we can boil this down (and many traders do) to any time frame we choose, hence, order flow and market delta spring to mind. I have yet to post my full blown rant against these studies but I'll say, IMO these studies require (me) to assume the correctness of to many variables. It is in this assumption that the COT data has the upper hand, nothing is assumed, the data reveals how many contracts are being held long, how many are being held short, the percentage of Open Interest they make up and the number of traders holding these positions. This data is revealed once each week, for all to see.

So what is an over crowded market, this is where you have to get your hands dirty. Look back at the turning points on a daily chart in the 6E over the last 12 months (1 year). Then, locate the "Tuesdays" around these turning points and pull up the data from the correlating COT report. Focus your attention (for the purpose of this post) on the percentage of Open Interest of the long positions and the short positions. Generally, what you will find is when one side (either longs or shorts) begin to accumulate positions that equate to levels around the "mid" 40% of the total Open Interest,, the market is indeed over crowed and a move in the opposite direction, ain't far behind. Now, I'm going to go back once again to the fact the COT data is collected only on Tuesdays, and posted on Fridays. This is a snap shot of the week, it's all we're given, but the data is still there, on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday,,,, we, just don't get to see it. So, what I'm saying here is if I see shorts holding 46% of the Open Interest on Tuesday and price continued to trade within a range around the lows of that day (Tuesday) on Wednesday and Thursday it is possible the total amount of percentage of Open Interest held by the shorts could have exceeded 50% or more,,,, just by the luck of the draw (COT data collected on Tuesday) we didn't see it! This is where an understanding of reading the Daily Open Interest and Volume can be very helpful. I don't want to get off topic here but the simplest "read" of the daily data is what I call, "The Trifecta" Price is Rising, Volume is Rising and Open Interest is Rising the UP TREND is strong and will continue. Turn that around for a "Trifecta" in a down trend.

OK, all this brings me to September 24, 2013. On Friday 9-27-13 the COT data showed Large Spec were holding 51% of the Open Interest Long. From that report it can also be noted this is an increase of 28,899 more long contracts from the previous Tuesday. This increase in long holdings also raised the Total Open Interest of LONGS to 129,862 contracts, the highest (reported by COT data) this year.

Then the Government shut down and I (we) were left in the dark for 16 days (with only Daily Volume and Open Interest data) until October 25, 2013 when the CFTC released the data for Oct 1, 2013. This chart shows where the COT data STOPPED with Longs holding 51% of the Open Interest. The small box is the days of the shut down, the large box shows all the data that was/is being delayed, STILL. One important note here, the data we got on Friday (for 10-22-13) shows Large Spec added 15,734 more contracts at this level, raising their Total to 137,061 contracts Long. As a closing note, when the data for 9-24-13 showed longs holding 51% of the Open Interest ,,, this triggered a signal as the Highest level of participation of either side of 2013, not since the lows of November 2012 has the COT report (which is Tuesday only,,,remember) showed levels in the 50s. Am I saying buy/sell every 50% reading of the COT data, NO, what I'm saying is a turn is near. These levels are Yearly Highs, IMO they have to be tested, it's like driving from Montana to Miami and not going to the beach.



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Daily /6E




-Bill_M


This seems like a good spot to consolidate (1.3460ish up to ???? 1.3650???) to me, Bold or stupid bulls might step in here (or stop running out the door), but I wouldn't want to fall asleep with a trade on. Lots of data coming out this week capped off by Mario and NFP. Plenty of time to take some profits if you were a lucky short, and plenty of time to adjust positions,,,, I believe there are still a lot of them on both sides. Let the battle begin !!

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@Cashish


Quoting 
but my time at my trading computer has been spread pretty thin this weekend. I find that some answers to questions just create more questions, as this one may.

If I have questions I'll make damn sure they count


Quoting 
First, forgive me for not commenting at all to your question before now

I certainly understand and thank you for taking the time to put this (the whole frig'n thread) together.



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But they be all whacked out - thank you THUR and FRI

6E M30



EDIT


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Just the numbers 'Mam, just the numbers



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But they be all whacked out - thank you THUR and FRI



Thanks @WilleeMac for your questions and comments, I wanted to follow your lead and post a little more about the Rally and Decline Numbers. I've added a couple charts for reference for those who care to get their hands dirty. The term "whacked out" in your post caught my attention, sounds like something I'd say, and maybe I did. IMO, the hardest part of any project is getting started, the content of these posts is no exception.

I'll choose this old statement as my Opener, "Nothing works all the time." This "ain't no cop-out" it's a fact. Now, with that being said the calculations of the numbers and the levels defined on the the chart are exactly correct. These numbers are averages you can use any average you wish, I use an average of 3 days, why, because it aligns with the 3 Day cycle outlined in the Taylor Method (which I "agree" with). I've looked at averages of these numbers from 3 to 50 days and for my purposes retain the 3 day average. The chart below shows exactly what is being calculated. After the close of the current day (Today) subtract the Low of Today from the High of Yesterday (previous day). To get a 3 Day average, of course I have to go back 4 days. In this example the moves from Yesterday's High to Today's Low (going backwards) are, 76, 149 and 260 (red lines). Once these numbers are identified I find the average of the three periods, which is 162 (ticks) this is on this chart in white, only as a reference. This is the Decline number, the level is marked on the chart (in yellow) for tomorrow's trading session by subtracting this average (162) from Today's High (the current day that just closed).

What is being identified here is the notion that if the market stages a Decline, price may begin to find support or be supported at this level.



Now let's not let common sense elude us here, these numbers are much more accurate in sideways markets or during consolidation periods, THAT is the intention of their use. By habit I chart them every day, some days I give them very little consideration, but they're on my chart none the less. This post is an example of this average at this time being "out of whack" with the market. REMEMBER, these calculations are based on the distance from High to Low over 2 days and THEN averaged over a 3 day period. Also remember, the Taylor 3 Day Cycle Sell Day (or Buy Day) can often be expanded 1, 2 or 3 days as described in his Book Method. Below is a similar chart showing the same process of calculating the Rally number.



So what do I use in these "whacked out" periods of the 3 day averages, common sense first and foremost, and many others like the Big 3 (the High, Low and 50% level) and the Pivot, Buy and Sell Numbers. Keeping an eye out for Highs and Lows of inside days (like today) can often "make my day" in a single trade.

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Here's something I put together for showing the "numbers" as support and resistance or both. Please ignore the right most AVG4 columns, something I'm experimenting with.

My reasoning for how the spreadsheet is laid out is traditional resistance above pivot and support below. Hence resistance to the left of pivot & mid of the four numbers and support to the right.

What can be misleading is the traditional lingo of yesterday's high, low, close (pivot)

Actually the way @Cashish calculates it is today's high, low, close

Obviously we don't have today's numbers at 2am etc but by the way the numbers are put together we have today (yesterday) and yesterday (two days ago)

Anyway the purpose of the screen shot is to demonstrate that the "numbers" do work and do have validity

(Not that I ever doubted you Mr @Cashish. Actually I believe in you so much that I wrote a study for TOS that plots these numbers, screenshot[s] above.)

-Bill





If anybody would like a copy of this spreadsheet, just let me know

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Giggity, giggity - Oh yeah

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Say, Hallelujah

In forty (40) short days the C.F.T.C. gets current with the COT data






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Cashish View Post
Now let's not let common sense elude us here, these numbers are much more accurate in sideways markets or during consolidation periods, THAT is the intention of their use.

(snip snip snip ....)

So what do I use in these "whacked out" periods of the 3 day averages, common sense first and foremost, and many others like the Big 3 (the High, Low and 50% level) and the Pivot, Buy and Sell Numbers. Keeping an eye out for Highs and Lows of inside days (like today) can often "make my day" in a single trade.

Hope you don't mind me diving in here while you're being so productive but with all the sideways action recently I'm looking more and more for clues that will help in sideways markets and consolidation periods and what you said there really got my interest. Mostly I'm dependent on the market going into a trend and leaving the level where I enter behind. Do you really find particular levels more important than others in sideways markets? I thought the key thing about trading a range day would be in the price action somewhere - that's not your experience though?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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Holy sh** Batman

I guess the "numbers" aint gonna be right for a while after this one M1 bar 145 ticks

Jeez

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@Adamus Thanks for your interest in the thread, and the subject.



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Hope you don't mind me diving in here while you're being so productive but with all the sideways action recently I'm looking more and more for clues that will help in sideways markets and consolidation periods and what you said there really got my interest. Mostly I'm dependent on the market going into a trend and leaving the level where I enter behind. Do you really find particular levels more important than others in sideways markets? I thought the key thing about trading a range day would be in the price action somewhere - that's not your experience though?



Adamus View Post
. Mostly I'm dependent on the market going into a trend and leaving the level where I enter behind.

Wouldn't that be nice! I believe in Today's market for a move like the one you describe, it (the market) needs an accelerant, usually IMO, this fuel for the move comes in the form of a news event. During the "waiting period" between these events the bigger players are adjusting positions and analyzing their next play. A lot can be seen by studying the COT data, Open Interest, Volume and Options positions. Even if a trader is trading the Cash Market, a look at this data may be very helpful. Also, during these times of waiting on the next Big Event intra-day speculators are doing their thing each and every day. This is the price action most of us "little guys" are accustom to trading, the rotations within the Larger Moves. As an example of this theory look at the price movements around the government shut down. On Oct 1, the government actually did shut down (now it's a fact) and the market Closed @ 1.3533 and on Oct 16 after 12 trading days the market Closed @ 1.3535, basically the market went nowhere but "we little guys" carried on business as usual (I know I did), until the "reopening" was actually a fact, at that time (10-17-2013) more volume hit the market on that day since the last high volume day (10-2-2013). The point I'm trying to make here is everyone is trading their own time frame, what qualifies as a trend to you may be "noise" or normal rotations for someone else, and I believe this theory plays itself out to infinity (well you get the picture). There are traders in the market that don't even raise an eyebrow if their 3000 lot position is 200 ticks in the red! As I type this, I see a 236 tick candle on my chart, not everyone is going to run for the door, they have to trade, I'll bet we will see Open Interest numbers for this day well above 200,000 contracts.



Adamus View Post
Do you really find particular levels more important than others in sideways markets? I thought the key thing about trading a range day would be in the price action somewhere - that's not your experience though?


Ok, now that the playing field is defined and we may agree we're talking about little retail traders here that focus on and trade the intra-day price rotations I'll move on. Yes, I believe that there are particular levels that are more important than other levels in sideways markets. Here's a chart of three (3) levels I thought were "important" going into today's trading session.




My trading goal for today was to be out of the market prior to the comments of the ECB. My opportunity presented itself when price entered this area around the Pivot. Trading is about RISK and being comfortable with it, but when the opportunity shows itself its time to get out on the end of your seat and trade, not second guess your analysis. This is one example of an area that I believed held more importance than another.




FWIW


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 WilleeMac 
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blast from the past

@Cashish today


Quoting 
... but when the opportunity shows itself its time to get out on the end of your seat and trade, not second guess your analysis.

@Cashish from the beginning of the year


Quoting 
My suggestions to anyone attempting this is, get focused, tighten up your jock strap, get out on the end of your seat and hang on tight to your saddle horn.

I love it

The man be consistent too

Not to be confused with "The Man"

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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This market didn't offer much wiggle room. Traders either traded it or they watched it.

Risk is what this all boils down to, if you have a plan/method/system for days like this, control your risk and trade your belief system.

Thanks guys for viewing and participating in the thread.

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 Adamus 
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Cashish View Post

FWIW

It's worth a thousand words. Thanks. Do all pivot points work that well??? Haha. I have no doubt it hadn't so much to do with pivot points rather than some other factors. Plus your trading full points for ticks rather than the forex half-points! (Not that I've ever proved that this helps my trading)

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 WilleeMac 
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In keeping with the spirit of @Cashish's hard work, I've put this years data into a spreadsheet whilst mostly preserving the CME format.

Other than having to manually enter the data in columns M, N and O you can copy and paste the CME COT data into the spreadsheet.

At this point through a series of mouse left - right clicks you can paste and then format the data by mouse clicking (on the spreadsheet toolbar) "data" , "text to columns" and the numbers will go into the appropriate buckets.

I'll work on a set of instructions on how to do just that.

Nonetheless it's a start.

-Bill

FYI, something I did notice is the increase in the number of traders since the end of SEP but not much (relative) change in the open interest (O I)

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 Cashish 
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Adamus View Post
It's worth a thousand words. Thanks. Do all pivot points work that well??? Haha. I have no doubt it hadn't so much to do with pivot points rather than some other factors. Plus your trading full points for ticks rather than the forex half-points! (Not that I've ever proved that this helps my trading)

I'm not sure I'm reading this post correctly. @Adamus asked me if I found "particular levels" in a sideways market "more important than others" and I find myself perplexed by these comments.



Adamus View Post
Do all pivot points work that well??? Haha.

All, of course not, but in a sideways market as referenced in the original question I find they work very well a majority of the time. Here are two charts of last nights price movements. IMO today's market was poised for similar price movements (sideways) while biding time leading up to the NFP numbers. This first chart shows the "particular levels" I had on my chart prior to the open that I thought held "more importance than others"



Since this was NFP day my play was the same as yesterday, be flat before the numbers come out. For those familiar with Volume Profile this chart shows how the value area unfolded throughout the session, the red line is the point of control.





Adamus View Post
I have no doubt it hadn't so much to do with pivot points rather than some other factors.

This comment cut me to the quick! As I had written in my previous post I believe there are many different players in the market with many opposing views. I thought I put together a pretty decent primer of my views and the theories behind my hypothesis. My original post was written with the intention of being informative and helpful, based solely on my own trading experiences. Here is a chart that shows a tail of a 5m bar trading on 1.3403 3 seconds before the NFP numbers were released. For some reason price stopped at 1.3403 2 seconds before trading on the bars high of 1.3449. In my post I offered my detailed opinion of these "particular levels" and how committed I am to them when given the opportunity to trade them. These levels weren't just pulled out my ass they are the product of countless hours of research and evaluation. I welcome everyone's opinion in this thread and invite you back to post the "some other factors" if you care to share them with us if you have, or when you have, identified them.




Adamus View Post
Plus your trading full points for ticks rather than the forex half-points! (Not that I've ever proved that this helps my trading)

I have no idea what this means.



Here's how price of the 6E rotated from the Globex open to 8:00am. I have a NFP Day play in my "Play Book" it ends at eight o'clock am. These last few posts have been about rotations in a sideways market between predetermined price levels. Having an understanding of these levels may be beneficial to those traders who remain content "running on bunts" or "swinging at base hits" (they do add up). I believe these levels offer opportunity if used properly. Traders have to leave their bias at the door, this is a sideways market until proven otherwise.


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 Adamus 
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Cashish, I am really sorry if i caused offence with my last post. I was torn between wanted to ask a ton of questions since you seem to be much further down the road than me, but wanting to be polite and not ask you to lay out the exact details of what you do or how successful you are. I was brought up to believe that such questioning is rude - although maybe on an internet forum it's expected.

When I said I'm sure it hadn't so much to do with pivot points as with some other factors, I wasn't trying to imply that the levels you use are just pulled out of your ass! I just meant, even if you had fantastically the best way of determining those levels ever, you would still have to decide how you are going to trade those levels using e.g. volume data or just plain experience. I mean, with those trades around 1.3510 from before the ECB interest rate news, it wasn't just a case of buying below the level and selling above, which you did on the first two dips below, since you then sold below as well on the third dip.

Your messages are informative although in my last reply I really wanted more but pussy-footed around instead of being direct about asking. Looks like I got a whole load more information but antagonised you at the same time by appearing to challenge you, which I wasn't.

I appreciate the time it takes to put informative posts together so I hope you accept my gratitude as well as my apologies.

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There's no School like the Old School

Doing Something Different



@Adamus Thanks for your reply. I believe we both understand where each of us were coming from at a much deeper level. Lets agree to cross-pollinate our apologies and move forward, as I too accept responsibility for my comments.


Doing Something Different

I can't count how many times I've read posts that say if I could just stick with my plan and do the same thing consistently I'd be much more profitable. On the surface this sounds like it ought to work, but let's dig deeper. Adamus, you want details, OK this one's for you! I started this thread in December of 2011, I can't believe it's still alive! About a year ago I remember writing a post stating that I struggled coming up with meaningful subject matter, then I realized how many little quirky things I do during trades without much conscience thought. Sure, I can post trades I've taken around significant price levels that look "near perfect" on a chart but as Adamus pointed out in so many words, The Devil is in the Details.

If you guys are anything like me, you've probably read dozens of trading books, many with charts showing those "near perfect" trades that look like any trader with a pulse could enter and reap what looks like guaranteed profits. Well, it doesn't work that way in the real world of trading, in trading books yes, but not in real time, in a real market, in the real world. Why, because the trades in the "book" are cherry picked, showing how the Theory of the trade is suppose to work. But in the real world of trading there are countless variables that must be considered, if they aren't, some of these variables have the potential to thwart any chance of the theory working at all. To put it simply, the trade will be destined for failure before it's entered. It's no different here on futures.io (formerly BMT), I can post how the theory is suppose to play out and also post trades I took with the intention to provide some sort of validation of an outcome if the theory was traded by anyone actually reading these posts. I honestly don't like posting trades, and try not to do it very often, I believe the theory is more important than the outcome. But it's true, the devil, is, in the Details on every trade, and in my opinion every trade is different. No one can package 5, 10 or 40 years of experience into a trading book, but they can package the theory.

All these statements are My Opinion and should be viewed as such. This notion of every trade being different is, IMO, why doing the same thing over and over doesn't work. Anyone following this thread should know by now I chart Volume Profile, it is an ever changing historic graph of areas in the market where large and small volumes of trading took place. The same can be said for a 20 period simple moving average, it plots the level of the average of where trading trading took place during the last 20 periods. This is only an example. But let's say the market is at .000 and Trader X anticipates a move to .150 in the next few hours, why, because he studied this "set-up" and traded it a few times before quite successfully. This is my attempt to expose the idea of every trade being different. My question to Trader X is this, is the POC of the Volume Profile, the VA High and VA Low in the exact same location as it was when this trade worked successfully in the past? If not, this trade is different. How about the 20 period average, is it, in the exact same location? How about today's high and low? How about yesterday's high and low? How about the high and low for the week? Hell, for that matter is it the same Contract Month? This is why I operate under the assumption every trade is different. Am I splitting hairs here, yes of course, but in my opinion it is unequivocally impossible to take the exact same trade twice, there are just to many moving parts. OK, let's step out of the Bizarro World and get back to reality.

Look at the Globex opening price of Thursday, where is yesterday's (Wednesday) high and low when the first tick hit the Time and Sales tape? Now look at the opening tick of the Globex on Friday, and compare that first tick to Thursday's high and low. For those reading this without a chart handy I'll fill in the blanks, Thursday's open (1.3516) was 33 ticks below Wednesday's high and 47 ticks above the low. Friday's open (1.3417) was 113 ticks below Thursday's high and 123 ticks above the low. This is an example of each trade being different, the entire trading landscape is much, much different. I hope readers are beginning to understand what I'm trying to put forth, every day is different, could that make every trade different, I believe so, but we all have our own opinions and belief systems.

Now I invite readers to take one more step. Look at the opening price of Thursday and compare that to Wednesday's 50% level or Mid Line, then do the same for Friday, compare Friday's opening price to Thursday's 50% level. Again, for those without a chart I'll fill in the blanks. Thursday's open was 7 ticks above Wednesday's Mid Line and Friday's open was 5 ticks above Thursday's Mid Line. Isn't that interesting, maybe the Mid Line of the prior day is a significant price level of "particular importance." The whole idea of any trading system is to identify non-random price movements and exploit them. I believe rotations around certain price levels such as the Mid Line are exactly that, non-random price movements, and thus offer me those opportunities for exploitation.

Did someone say details? This post could go on and on, so far I've only mentioned the High, Low, Open and the Mid Line of the prior day. For those who may be "a little slow on the take," ALL of these numbers are stagnant, fixed historic price levels revealed at the close of the trading day, they will never move!

But wait, there's more, how about the Closing price. Did I say all this is my opinion, just want to remain clear about that. The Globex 6E futures contract stops and cranks back up again an hour later every day. I'm shocked when I read threads of traders trying to find "some other" time to start a trading session. On most days the CME posts two levels of interest in regards to the Close, the last traded price (or the close of the last bar) and the settlement price. I've seen both of these prices charted as the Closing price. To make this subject even more complicated remember the 6E is the "tail" the Cash Market is the "dog," and the Cash Market closes when, and the trading day starts when? Good Grief !!

A Day of Details, NFP Day

In a single sentence here's how I trade NFP days. I keep a running average of the tick range of price movements from the Globex Open until 8am of the last 12 NFP days, I then try to identify either the high or low of this portion (time) of the session and capture enough of the move to fulfill my daily monetary trading goal. Simple right? Yes it's a monetary goal, that's the only reason I'm here.

I posted this chart before, it shows the "particular levels" I had on my chart prior to the open that I thought held "more importance than others"



The rest of these charts are after the fact, so to make things a little easier to follow there are shaded areas which I'll call Asian (left) European (center) and one bar of the US session which I define as starting at 8:00am. First the bold yellow line is the prior day's 50% level or Mid Line. The upper green line is 16 ticks ABOVE the whole number 1.3400, there's another green line 16 ticks BELOW that whole number, I consider any rotation within this area "normal" rotation around a whole number. The chart shows price rotated around the Mid Line for several hours and dropped below the whole number but failed to trade down to 1.3384. This drop and failure to trade lower set up the entry for the trade. This is a 5m chart, it shows there was plenty of time to step up and enter a LONG trade,,, using the 1.3384 level as a stop 6 ticks below (the Risk of the trade).




This move lower fulfilled two theories I hold about the rotations around whole numbers (in the 6E). 1.) The move rotated down from 1.3415 to even, I believe the area 14-16 ticks above and below is the area to "take action." 2.) The Failure to trade lower into the 1.3386-84 (14-16 ticks below) validated the area in the first chart (1.3403-1.3417) or the Mid line (1.3412) as "The" significant level, and provided the expectation price would return and continue to test these levels during the European Session. The chart above shows after a tight rotation around 1.3400 price returned to the Mid line and did in fact test lower to 1.3405 (not quite "03) and when retesting the high (of that session) made a new high for the day at 1.3421 during the 1 hour period between 2 and 3am.

Details,,,, I've found there's almost no end to the details, once I began accumulating "tells" of movements in price and areas or price levels that over the years caught my attention. In the chart below I reveal another area in the market (6E) that I believe holds a "hidden power," any reader of this post can form their own conclusions of the validity of this one but the price movements on this particular day endorsed My theory about this level. It is the price range from 2 to 3am. There are two vertical shaded areas on this chart for the European session, the first shaded area is 2 to 3am. The horizontal shaded area is the range of that hour, notice the highs and lows after 3am. First the low, exactly on the low of the range 1.3405,,, and look close at the "flat tops," NO, they're NOT on the high of the range, they're testing the upper boundary of the original significant level that may hold more importance than another area. As i said, the details of a trade can seem unlimited, but just for the record, those "flat tops" on 1.3417 are actually banging against the Pivot line which is in fact 1.3417.




Moving right along, I have to rewind back to the entry. I said this was a NFP trade, I believe I posted some details of this particular trade up-thread somewhere, but I'll spell out the basics once again. The average range of the Globex session on NFP days over the last 12 months from the open until 8am is/was 55 ticks. The idea is to identify either the high or low for this time period and the direction then project this average onto the chart. I've done this on the chart below. I hope I've provided enough details as to why I believed this could be the low of this time period. I'm sure the first question would be, did I buy the low, the answer is no. Buying the absolute low tick is irrelevant, I'm looking for a piece of a theoretical range, I think, based on my studies a movement higher is possible, nothing more. Do I plan on holding this trade with a death grip, hoping and praying to be proven right and watch price trade on the projected price level, no. So where's the target on this trade, let's move on.




This is a side bar to more details of the theory behind this trade. I'm looking for upward movement in this market based on what has already been presented and know the average movement for this time period on NFP days is 55 ticks. I've define the area where my stop is on this trade, now I need a target. The snip below shows a simple, free on-line standard deviation calculator (link below) with the last 12 ranges entered. The lowest graph shows where each of the 12 individual ranges are in reference to the 55 tick 'mean' average I mentioned earlier. Of the 12 averages, 4 are above the mean average and 8 are below, this may suggest achieving the original 55 tick move may NOT be a pipe dream after all.




Details of the target.
I mentioned earlier these charts are after the fact but this chart has a few "old" levels removed and a few new ones defined. One thing that 23 hour markets usually provide is, the Close of the prior day is usually pretty close to the Open of the current day. Some charting programs use the close of the last bar of the prior day as the close and omit the Settlement Price altogether, I believe this is important, why, if half the traders are looking at one level and half are looking at another maybe BOTH levels are important. Remember that "high" of the 2 to 3am range, it was the close of the last bar on Thursday 1.3421, on this chart that level is defined by the green dot dot dash line. Remember another thing, while all this is going on in the 6E the Cash market is also trading around unchanged, whatever level that may be on what ever bucket shop's data you might be looking at. But the CME also posts a settlement price, THAT is the level quotes begin to read +, unchanged or - ,,, NOT the close of the last bar of the day. Maybe it's just a random tick,,,, just like the trade on 1.3421 but look at the high of the bar in the shaded circle, 1.3428 the settlement price. That was my target on this trade. Sure all this blah blah blah about the last close of the last bar and the settle is next to meaningless when price is testing the high or the low, BUT price is trading right here, right now, and I believe it's VERY important to have both of these levels on my chart. This is another example of why I started this post, every trade is different, what if, the Last was above the settle, would we see the same rotations, it's in the details. Again, just for the record, price traded between these two levels six (6) times, before 8am,,,,, probably just random movements, after all it's only a 7 tick range.



Have you guys had enough? I feel like a Chatty Cathy Doll, pulling my own string.

Doing Something Different

Why, because I believe every trade is different.



Doing Something Different


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Something that I've been eyeballing in addition to the fabulous information that @Cashish has laid out here

We obviously have the price action at whole numbers 50 and zero zero

How about 1/4 numbers 25 & 75?

I've the grid on my chart set to .0025

I dunno

Maybe I'm a numbers freakazoid

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 WilleeMac 
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Go to most recent report.

Commitments of Traders - CFTC

Scroll down to Chicago Mercantile Exchange, click Short Format.

About half way down this page ---> CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CME (Futures Only)

Data is between Japanese Yen and New Zealand Dollar.

Manually enter columns M, N & O (O I, change in O I, total traders.)

Left click, highlight 103,333 through 50,467, right click copy.

Go to spreadsheet right click cell C223, click paste.

Go to toolbar, left click data, text to columns, make sure fixed width is selected, click next (data will be segregated to columns), click next, data will be formatted as general, click finish.

Do same for changes from, percent of and number of traders.

Now that the data has been entered highlight cells C218 through K221. Click the yellow paint brush on the toolbar.

Left click cell C228 and the data is no formatted.

Cheers and keep the rubber side down.

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 Cashish 
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WilleeMac View Post
How about 1/4 numbers 25 & 75?

I don't want to detour you from your efforts, but I always thought a simple system could be built using the '80 and '20 levels. I relented pursuing the idea but still harbor strong feelings for these levels, good luck.



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Maybe I'm a numbers freakazoid

If you stick around this thread you're sure to become one, if you ain't already.

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I will only use CME numbers

I will only use CME numbers

If you use "the numbers" that are documented here, please trust me on this one

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 Cashish 
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I thought this was very interesting, a little "off topic" but then again it is often said, it doesn't really matter what you're adding up, it's all just numbers.




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I very much appreciate the heads up/ so you know, info

esp Mike Rowe

Thank you

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 Adamus 
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Thanks for the great post. If you don't mind me leaping in again despite my historical performance, I've got a few questions about what you've described.

My setups are all dependent on finding the start of a trend at a decision / support / resistance point. A lot of my support and resistance lines are interestingly very close to the lines you've used but are generated just by swing highs and swing lows on the 60min chart. I am dependent on detecting the beginning of momentum which gives me a good crack at profiting from a move to the next level.

I'll make no pretence at profitibility and probably one of the things holding me back is impatience and the desire to take more trades than those that occur nicely at my setups. Although my main concentration in pursuit of improvement is to tone down my over-enthusiasm, my curiosity in your methods is intense because a lot of the rangey market behaviour happening at the moment mostly provides setups that aren't worth taking, yet seems ideally suited to strategies based on ranges and the fluctuation around ranges, as opposed to the moves away from those ranges.

Do you know where and when to get in at the extremity of your ranges/levels through a combination of favourable price action and averages - rotation, candle size, volatility? And then just leave a limit order in the way? Or is there more involved as well - DOM, volume, etc?

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

The Mario Bar


I've been working on this post piece by piece all weekend, running back and forth from one computer to another. The next couple of weeks are going to be busy here at the house and my trading time will be limited. My family will experience a "red letter day" on Wednesday and the anticipation is high, I hope to share more about that in the future.

I wanted to post a few comments and opinions about the movements of the market since the huge 236 tick "Mario Bar," of Nov 7th. I believe the rate cut by the ECB caught many traders by surprise and sent them scurrying to adjust their positions. Below is a simple chart of the Nov 7 daily bar. What caught my attention was not the 236 tick range but the 134 tick pullback off the low. When I see a bar like this I think, Bullish. A 236 tick move is nothing to sneeze at, it blew thru 5 whole numbers and 3 of them at least twice! Looking for a level of support or resistance going forward into the next few days can be challenging. The first two levels I chose to watch were the Settlement price (close) 1.3428 and the 50% level 1.3412, as it turned out, they served me well all of last week.




This chart shows how price appeared to respect these levels throughout the week and may have begun to pull away from them on Friday.




I also wanted to throw in a few comments about rotations around these whole numbers. The Mario Bar has offered (what I believe) a great opportunity to see how this played out. I threw these charts together fairly quickly but I hope they assist in making my case for two theories about price rotations around whole numbers in the 6E. The Mario Bar is omitted from these charts, only the price movements after Nov 7 are charted. The two concepts I want to highlight are; 1.) Price is attracted to whole numbers and 2.) An area I refer to as having a gravitational pull on prices. Detailing this and putting it into words may get confusing, but I believe the charts may help. A little refresher may help those readers who are new to Volume Profile (VP). The RED line on the VPs is the point of control (POC) it signifies the most actively traded price, or simply the one price level where the most trading volume took place.

Another note I feel needs mentioning before going forward are the levels that I believe hold the gravitational pull. At first glance these charts may appear to be pretty much covered with gray bands leaving only a sliver of space in between each level. So I invite readers not to think of these as 4 levels, but think of them as 8 separate ranges, one above and one below each whole number. For example, if price moves away, either above or below a whole number less than 23 ticks, the gravitational pull of that whole number will (My theory) pull price back to that whole number.

This first chart shows the Value Area (70% of the Volume) of all trades traded since the Mario Bar. Notice the peaks of the VP, and their location in reference to the whole numbers, 1.3400 and 1.3450. Also notice the low volume area near the center of the profile, (more on this later). If I look closely at this VP and take notice of the five (5) price levels which indicate the highest volume, four of them are very close to whole numbers. However, the actual POC of this VP although it is within the defined range (gray area below 1.3450) it is the furthest away of all five. Why?




I believe this chart answers the Why? This chart breaks down the previous profile into individual trading days. Remember there are 8 separate ranges defined here, one above and one below each whole number. Just to be clear, all the POCs of the Value Areas on this chart are within one of these ranges. The theory is, these POCs will gravitate towards the whole numbers. Of the six (6) on this chart, four (4) of them are within 11 ticks. Two (2) of them (Nov 12 & 13) are 16 and 19 ticks away respectively, obviously there's a reason for this.




The chart below shows the entire VP of each trading day, every day last week price returned to the area of the 50% level (1.3412) or the Settlement price (1.3428,, close) of the Mario Bar and rotated around these levels. On Nov 12 & 13 price rotated thru both of these levels attracting heavy volume. The price rotations of these two days combined with the heavy volume in this area shifted the "6 day" profile's POC up from 1.3408 to 1.3434 then down again to 1.3407 on the 13th. Thursday the 6 day POC shifted up again to 1.3434 and eventually on Friday to 1.3436. (See the second chart below with these levels marked in yellow.)







OK, so what does all this have to do with anything? Look at the chart below, (I know it's tight, but it's a start) and notice how often price wanders out to the edge of the "gravity" range and returns back to the whole number. Remember there are 8 separate ranges, one above and one below each whole number. By simply looking at this 5m chart it is pretty easy to ascertain the speed of price movements from one level to another. Knowing how price behaves during consolidation periods prior to a news event or economic report can be very helpful in building confidence when contemplating an entry. Small prolonged trading ranges of 20 or 30 ticks ain't that exciting but often they offer opportunity for one of these 14 or 16 tick moves back to the safety of a whole number. And often these moves will "slice thru" the whole number and wander out to the edge of the "gravity" range on the other side.

Stupid is as stupid does. Am I saying run out and buy or sell every price level marked on the chart, no. Price is "here" for a reason, maybe it's yesterday's high or low, maybe some "fib" level for God knows where, maybe yesterday's POC or today's value area. The point I want to make is whole numbers attract price. Bring up a daily chart and look at the highs and lows, compare those levels with the "nearest" whole number and study how price behaved after the high or low was made. Of course many times these levels (highs and lows) are made in the blink of an eye, often around a news event, leaving price to wander and range for the rest of the session, these levels outlined in this post often play a roll in these situations. Most traders who use Volume Profile will agree, initiating a trade near the POC or high volume area often creates another type of situation, one where price just rotates around a handful of ticks up and down and hours may pass before a decent move out of that area materializes. The knowledge of the "pull" of a nearby whole number or the edge of the "gravity" range can often come in very handy in go nowhere markets. I hope I presented the concepts in a manner that shows the theory may be worthy of your further individual study. For those who wish to "travel down this rabbit hole" I invite you to watch the price movements leading up to the PMI numbers, the IFO and ZEW when they are released this week in the Eurozone.



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 eminitrdr 
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Back just not sure for how long. Recuperating from a recent surgery. It's SIMPLE but not EASY! This is what I saw. Hell, I may even have the Trend Reaction Numbers wrong.
One and done...can't be at trading station for long periods.
The RISK was well worth the potential REWARD...IMO

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Is this the rotation Mr. Cashish described in his latest post above? A rotation above a WHOLE NUMBER less than 23 ticks and a gravitational pull back to the whole number. Damn close if you ask me. Could be totally wrong...been away too long
Would expect @Cashish to correct me if I'm wrong.

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@eminitrdr, sure hope you get to feeling better/ back in the swing of things

-Bill

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Coincidence 3543 from Yday? 3485, 83 Tday?

Or 50% retrace from FRI low to Tday high?

D, all of the above

-Bill


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Adamus View Post
Do you know where and when to get in at the extremity of your ranges/levels through a combination of favourable price action and averages - rotation, candle size, volatility? And then just leave a limit order in the way? Or is there more involved as well - DOM, volume, etc?

I really like what J. Peter Steidlmayer said in one of his latest webinars, "To be successful, you have to be lucky instead of good." He also goes on to say, "We want dumb luck to be on our side."

I believe simple is better. Most of my trading is based on the notion that price will continue to rotate and go nowhere, until that rotation is interrupted by a news event, either political or economic. This news driven interruption often causes a (the) move to another or "the next level" of go nowhere rotation. Furthermore, since today's market is traded electronically by all participants, unlike the markets referenced in most common trading literature, these moves appear and disappear quickly, very quickly. I don't have to read many threads here on futures.io (formerly BMT) to realize these moves EAT traders!

Pain is a great motivator, in life and in trading. Since most traders are risk averse and struggle with taking a loss, I believe these areas that generate "pain" are ripe with trading opportunities. So to answer your questions, Yes, I believe I know where "to get in" through a combination of "averages-rotations." Price action comes from testing or entering these areas ,,,,,, IMO, if my order is not already resting in this area, the volatility, momentum or lack of time in today's markets (speed of execution) greatly diminishes my ability to capture any significant portion of the move. Is "it" more involved, DOM, Volume? I want "dumb luck" to be on my side, I want volume to prove me wrong. What I mean by that is I don't want to be taken out of the market by price drifting aimlessly away from by entry towards my stop. My intention is to have my "order in the way" and when price enters the area ,,, volume will also enter (increase) and propel price to "the next level" and in turn fill my resting order at a predefined target. I find this method works just as well if I'm buying on a high volume move into the lower area in a range and targeting either the top of, or some level within the already established range or buying or selling an area above or below an established range and targeting either a predefined support or resistance level higher or lower. I hope this answers your questions, if not, you're welcome here anytime, @Adamus

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 Cashish 
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@Xav1029 Sorry to hear about your stop out experience with "Oh Wanda." I saved this from somewhere awhile back, thought you (and others) might find it insightful, I don't remember the author.


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Cashish View Post
@Xav1029 Sorry to hear about your stop out experience with "Oh Wanda." I saved this from somewhere awhile back, thought you (and others) might find it insightful, I don't remember the author.


Thanks @Cashish

I understand stop runs, but to have an order be filled and that "tick" not be reported then or now is just frustrating. If my chart and quote board had actually reported my stop price, I'd chalk it up as a normal stop out. But when neither the chart nor the quote board shows my price ever traded, I just feel like I got robbed. In fact, my stop was filled at a higher price than the HOD yesterday. Guess that's what happens when you venture into "The Dark Side"

Its also frustrating when you have a limit order sitting there, and the "spread" is a few ticks past your order, but you aren't filled. Emailed customer support yesterday and yet to hear back.

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I feel your pain brother. Forgive me for not asking earlier, but I figured by now Oh Wanda would have "fixed the chart" to show,,,, they were RIGHT! I hope you let us know how it turns out,,,FWIW, I still think it was a great trade, well done.

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@WilleeMac Going into today's trading, you didn't miss this "Old High" sitting on '49 did you?


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@WilleeMac Going into today's trading, you didn't miss this "Old High" sitting on '49 did you?


No sir I didn't miss it, but admittedly I have to say I did not look at it that way. I looked at it the same way I did back on WED 11-6 as a whole number rejection at 3550.

Thank you for pointing it out

-Bill

/6E still has a target of 3571 (-23.6, vs 123.6 because of the way we [Halsey] pull fibs) and there's a whole bunch of @Cashish numbers up there as well





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eminitrdr View Post
Is this the rotation Mr. Cashish described in his latest post above? A rotation above a WHOLE NUMBER less than 23 ticks and a gravitational pull back to the whole number. Damn close if you ask me. Could be totally wrong...been away too long
Would expect @Cashish to correct me if I'm wrong.

emini

@eminitrdr , welcome back


I want to clear up one thing about my long winded post regarding these rotations. This is not a trading method, it is simply an observation of price. However, with that being clarified, these rotations (or the theory of them) were the genesis of the 14-16 tick trade back to the whole number. If the theory of a 23 gravitational pull should exist the "pull" from 14-16 ticks should be much (or a little) greater, in theory of course. So, if an acceptable level of RISK can be calculated from further away on a 14-16 tick trade (23-27 ticks) the target could be adjusted to compensate those few ticks, allowing for the target to be placed in a position where the trader is taking profits, "going to, not going thru a whole number." Comprende

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 Cashish 
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WilleeMac View Post
No sir I didn't miss it, but admittedly I have to say I did not look at it that way. I looked at it the same way I did back on WED 11-6 as a whole number rejection at 3550.

Thank you for pointing it out

-Bill

/6E still has a target of 3571 (-23.6, vs 123.6 because of the way we [Halsey] pull fibs) and there's a whole bunch of @Cashish numbers up there as well

I'm going to be A.W.O.L. for the most part of the next two weeks, but I do think 1.3550 is going to be a tough nut to crack! I will suggest keeping BOTH eyes on the data out of the Eurozone this week and don't forget about the historical "leggy" moves of Black Friday's, they can surprise. Good luck, Comrades

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 Cashish 
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Cashish View Post
I do think 1.3550 is going to be a tough nut to crack!


The Nutcracker


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Hope everybody made it through on that out of nowhere corn hole

Here's where we are as of 11-20-13 at 1230pm est

We held halfway back on the year - A

EDIT - technically the pull should be from 2751 to 3834, but in this case it does not make a difference

We held halfway back short - B

So far we're holding halfway back long - C

Stay frosty and keep the rubber side down

-Bill


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Forex Trading around 16:00 GMT over 11 Months.
Each frame shows 10 minutes of Forex trading in major currencies for 1 day. Notice anything interesting right at 11:00?


Nanex ~ 21-Nov-2013 ~ Forex at 11 AM Eastern - London Calling


With regulators finally catching on that banks are manipulating every asset class, the largest of them all - foreign exchange - has come under scrutiny. Most specifically, there is considerable attention being paid to manipulation at the "London Close" around 11amET each day. Judge for yourself - see anything 'odd' around that time of day?

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

Classic Textbook


I found a little time to trade this morning and then waited until 6am to post a couple charts. I threw these together fairly quickly but wanted to point out a couple Classic Textbook chart patterns. Old Skool Market Profile (ok, volume profile).

This first chart shows Friday's profile with the High of 1.3560. There was a trade or two on the 1.3560 level around the Globex open then price drifted into Friday's Value Area and continued to drift lower. I wanted to show both profiles, but most of the commentary is based on the next chart.



The chart below has so many "near perfect" alignments I don't know where to start. First the failure to trade above Friday's High, this told me to watch for the "building" of an inside day. They have to start somewhere, and when price opens at an extreme of the previous day's range, that might be the "last chance" to enter a trade at these levels. Price did stay within Friday's range and started drifting lower into Friday's Value Area. Second, at 2am price went nowhere for about 30m then staged a "Pop" up to the VWAP at 1.3546.

This is where things started coming together and aligning with my analysis. I like using the 2 to 3am range as a "half-ass" opening range. My analysis tells me 70% of the time either the high or the low of this rage will not be broken before 6am. Add that to the fact Friday's High has remained in tact thus far, and I'm ready to risk a short trade here, using the notion the "Pop" to the VWAP will be the high of the 2-3am range, it was. Also, if the theory of the "high" holding until 6am is true, this provides an area for stop placement on the short trade. My analysis also tells me the average range between 2 and 6am is 39 ticks. So if I draw a line from the "VWAP" high DOWN 39 ticks price may travel thru several significant price level that may be used as targets. The Pivot, Yesterday's POC and Yesterday's 50% level are all within this projected range. The Classic Textbook MP trade is, when price enters "value" it may test the other side, or the Value Area Low, in this example it did. My analysis also tells me 70% of the time price will trade on the previous day's POC between the hours of 2 and 11am, today price found Yesterday's POC before 4:30am. After the smoke cleared, the range for today between 2 and 6am ended up being 38 ticks,, IMO, that's damn close to 39.


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Not that this directly pertains to /6E, but on the other hand it does in some way or fashion pertain to a whole bunch of things,,,,,,


Quoting 
Shortly after 1amET this morning, someone with no apparent fiduciary duty to their client's for best execution or any apparent trade allocation expertise decided it was time to dump 1500 contracts into an entirely illiquid gold futures market. The 150,000 ounce notional sell order ($184.5 million), captured graphically by Nanex, sent the price down $10 instaneously, tripped the exchange's circuit breakers and halted the market's trading for 20 seconds (once again). This is now the 4th market halt in the past 3 months (and this time on no news whatsoever), as the manipulative monkey-hammerings from who knows whom (BIS?) is becoming increasingly obvious.

-Bill

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There's no School like the Old School

Black Friday

My mind has been wandering most of this week but I wanted to post a few observations before Friday (Black Friday). This first chart shows all the volume profiles since 11-19-13 (far left), the day the CFTC gave traders a peek at how the Open Interest is "divvied up" amongst the heavy handed participants. I snipped this chart early after the Globex session opened on Wednesday evening. I've been watching and trading off this chart all week, (NOT, actually this chart, this is a 15m chart so I could "fit" everything on one chart, I use a 1m chart). Look close at the LOW of Sunday/Monday and then look left at the profiles of the 22nd and the 20th, the lower value area of Monday "filled" in the thinly traded areas of the fore mentioned profiles, YES it was near the whole number 1.3500 which became (IMO) a major support level. The "fast" moves thru this area on the 20th and 22nd "left the door open" for price to return and test this area, and firm it up. This chart also shows (3) three "virgin" POC below Today's Open and (1) one above. Notice how price absolutely refused to trade in the previous day's Value Area on Tuesday and Wednesday, unlike my previous "Textbook" post, since Monday price rejected the Upper value areas and traded higher. Leaving the (2) two POCs of Monday and Tuesday untouched.




Now I'm going to circle around and chase my tail, I want to return to the CFTC Report on 11-19-13. IF traders looked at the report from the CFTC they may have noticed LONGS (Large Spec) are holding the smallest amount of positions since August. Another inside observation that can be taken away from the COT Report is the Number of Traders holding these positions. It is often said, the players never change. How many Large Spec are there in the Euro Futures arena? Currency traders trade currencies, they don't trade beans one day and oil the next, only the public trades that way. These are the professional traders that dine on those who come to "play" in their arena. Take a close look at the total number of Large Spec traders by adding those holding longs and those holding shorts. In the report below there are 32 traders holding 81,070 contracts long which makes up 34.9% of the open interest and there are 68 traders holding 72,159 contracts short which makes up 31.1% of the open interest. These numbers draw a pretty vivid picture of the "playing field" if you realize what you're looking at. The first thing a trader can take away from these numbers is the total of the Large Spec, add the 32 traders holding longs and the 68 traders holding shorts together and that sum is 100 Large Spec. Secondly, this data reveals both the longs and the shorts are holding relatively the the same percentage of the open interest, 34.9% and 31.1% respectively. I believe, this may suggest the market is "to close to call" and the future direction is unknown at this time, if you want more insight look at the Commercials 45.6% and 41.3% and those participants are split 50 and 51, what I'm saying here is no-one holds an upper hand, or do they?




OK, on Nov 19, 2013 the COT report tells me there are 100 Large Spec holding 66% of the open interest. I believe @WilleeMac has taken all leg work out of my next example with the spreadsheet he posted up-thread but I'm going to post this "in spite" of him. I'm old school and still hold a fondness for adding machine tape and ink on my fingers. Here's the deal, add up all the participants on both sides of the trade for each week over the period of a year (or more) and find the average number of Large Spec who report their positions. To make this post visual, I entered the 52 numbers (total large spec of each week) in the free on-line calculator. The results are on average there are 102 Large Spec in the Euro Futures arena each week, but more importantly look at the Standard Deviation (6) six, almost insignificant! Maybe there is something to the theory, "the players never change."




So what, more meaningless cashish number crunching, maybe, but if traders subscribe to the notion we each trade our individual beliefs wouldn't you think the Large Spec do the same, I'm just saying. My method of trading the 6E is a hodgepodge of ideas stolen from the many Masters who came long before me. I believe watching the dance of price discovery unfold during a trading session is fascinating, why does price stop here, why does it NOT stop here. Peter Steidlmayer said he believes there are over 10,000 different "time frames" being traded, simultaneously. He also believes when the price is right, traders will "come off the bench" and join the fray. I agree with this, when I see price respect VAHs, POCs and VALs as well as Standard Deviation levels intra-day again and again this tells me short term day traders are working the market. I also believe when price trades thru one of these levels either on the first attempt or the 10th and volume increases dramatically, this (volume) is the other time frame traders "coming off the bench" adjusting their positions as the price discovery process unfolds.

Back to the COT Report. Of the 100 Large Spec (the usual suspects) the majority of them (68 compared to 32) were holding short positions on Nov 19. This is an important distinction, the majority of traders were holding shorts, although the percentage of open interest was nearly balanced between the two sides of the trade. As I wrote in the first part of this post, price refused to enter the prior day's value area all week, price respected these levels and just kept inching higher, squeezing and squeezing the majority higher and higher, on lower and lower volume heading straight into Holiday trading. IMO, the increase in open interest posted on Tuesday and the preliminary increase in open interest in the Daily Bulletin for Wednesday may suggest an opinion of future direction may be exposed, soon. The chart below shows two levels I believe are tipping points, 1.3650 and 1.3464.




Black Friday

Blah, blah, blah it's not like I don't have anything better to do, but THIS is what this post is about. Black Friday has a reputation for big moves in the Euro, BIG moves. On average of the last ten years the Euro prints a range on Friday of more than 200% of Thursday's range. This is based on the Cash Market, but the 6E futures will reveal a similar range almost to the tick. Here's a chart for prosperity's sake, so far the range is 56 ticks, IF this range holds (I said IF), tomorrow the probabilities of printing a 100 plus range in either direction are very high. I believe both levels on the previous chart could be in play, I'm NOT going to predict the direction, but I will go balls out on the RANGE!






Have a

Happy
Thanksgiving

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

Black Friday


PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
I have to say today was a good example of this.

  • 2013_____Thursday's Range______56____Friday's Range_____41____Percent of Thursday_____73%

    2012_____Thursday_____________72____Friday___________124________________________172%

    2011_____Thursday____________100____Friday___________133________________________133%

    2010_____Thursday____________100____Friday___________162________________________162%

    2009_____Thursday____________182____Friday___________192________________________105%

    2008_____Thursday____________107____Friday___________312________________________292%

    2007_____Thursday_____________51____Friday___________182________________________357%

    2006_____Thursday_____________47____Friday___________166________________________353%

    2005_____Thursday_____________54____Friday____________80________________________148%

    2004_____Thursday____________121____Friday___________145________________________120%

    2003_____Thursday_____________55____Friday___________117________________________213%


10 Period Average for 2013 Trade_____205%

10 Period Average for 2014 Trade_____191%


Well, what can I say? I'm surprised, maybe after all these years they're on to me.




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 WilleeMac 
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
I have to say today was a good example of this.

Refund please

I bought every top and sold every bottom

LuLzzzzzzz

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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In an effort to avoid any further misinterpretation and/or deep seeded trauma, I'm offering this post to aid in undoing any psychological scars my choice of words may have caused to the readers of this thread.






As always, Thanks for viewing the thread.

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 WilleeMac 
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A free news website that I had forgot about, which I learned about (I think) from futurestrader71 (@FT71).

This is not a solicitation, spam etc only an FYI

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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Super Mario





Busts-A (The)-Move?





1.3700 ?

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 Cashish 
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The next couple of weeks are going to be busy here at the house and my trading time will be limited. My family will experience a "red letter day" on Wednesday and the anticipation is high, I hope to share more about that in the future.


I posted this a few weeks ago and boy have things changed here at Casa de Cashish. A few of you already know but I reluctantly wanted to post an update. On Nov 20th my wife an I celebrated our wedding anniversary, we celebrated by adopting a 5 year old little girl, (our children think we've lost it). This has been a major shift in our lives for the past several years, but everything has finally been finalized. The joy shared by all of us in the family was short lived. On Nov 21 one of our 36 year old daughters (twins ) was diagnosed with cancer, she has a golf-ball sized growth on her kidney. Needless to say, I feel like I've had the breath of life kicked out of me. My daughter has been home since before Thanksgiving and is very positive, active and in great spirits. Funny how life can turn on a dime. We are a tight family and have the support of many close friends. We anticipate a long journey ahead of us and we plan to travel it together, as a family.

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 mfbreakout 
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I posted this a few weeks ago and boy have things changed here at Casa de Cashish. A few of you already know but I reluctantly wanted to post an update. On Nov 20th my wife an I celebrated our wedding anniversary, we celebrated by adopting a 5 year old little girl, (our children think we've lost it). This has been a major shift in our lives for the past several years, but everything has finally been finalized. The joy shared by all of us in the family was short lived. On Nov 21 one of our 36 year old daughters (twins ) was diagnosed with cancer, she has a golf-ball sized growth on her kidney. Needless to say, I feel like I've had the breath of life kicked out of me. My daughter has been home since before Thanksgiving and is very positive, active and in great spirits. Funny how life can turn on a dime. We are a tight family and have the support of many close friends. We anticipate a long journey ahead of us and we plan to travel it together, as a family.


MAY GOD BE WITH YOU AND YOUR FAMILY AND GIVE YOU STRENGTH TO COPE WITH THIS TEST. ( Amen).


I been trying to expand my trading tools and have looked into Forex and found your notes very helpful. Thanks.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Cashish View Post
I posted this a few weeks ago and boy have things changed here at Casa de Cashish. A few of you already know but I reluctantly wanted to post an update. On Nov 20th my wife an I celebrated our wedding anniversary, we celebrated by adopting a 5 year old little girl, (our children think we've lost it). This has been a major shift in our lives for the past several years, but everything has finally been finalized. The joy shared by all of us in the family was short lived. On Nov 21 one of our 36 year old daughters (twins ) was diagnosed with cancer, she has a golf-ball sized growth on her kidney. Needless to say, I feel like I've had the breath of life kicked out of me. My daughter has been home since before Thanksgiving and is very positive, active and in great spirits. Funny how life can turn on a dime. We are a tight family and have the support of many close friends. We anticipate a long journey ahead of us and we plan to travel it together, as a family.

@Cashish, congrats on the baby girl, ours turned 4 on the day she became ours. It was one of the most exciting days of my life...and also the hardest I think!. We are older and some of our friends thought we were crazy as well....but its been the best thing that ever happened to us. I wouldn't trade it for the world.

As to your daughter, she will be in our prayers. We've had to many friends battle cancer to not feel your pain even though we don't know each other. May God give you the strength and courage to face the coming storms.

Enjoy your new baby girl! I hope she brings untold joy to both of you!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 Mickey Caine 
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Very sorry to hear of your daughters illness. I have just won my year long battle with cancer, so I know what your going through. I wish your daughter better and God bless you all.

Chris

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 WilleeMac 
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Dig the adoption

Cancer very, very sorry to hear that

Cash Family hang in there

Prayers and God be with you all

-Bill

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 Cashish 
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It's now or never,,,, to take out Yesterday's High,,, Well NOT really but it would be nice!



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 Cashish 
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Thanks guys

For all the comments, concerns, PMs, links, sincere thoughts and the prayers you've shared.
I assure each of you I've forwarded all comments to my wife and daughter, we ALL thank each of you for your thoughtfulness.


Believe me, there's no place like futures.io (formerly BMT).

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 WilleeMac 
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-Bill

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 Cashish 
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Is a picture worth a thousand word?




-Bill

Sometimes I find your posts vague and nondescript. Can you give me a little more direction to build a reply on?

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 WilleeMac 
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What Im thinking is after the run up since the beginning of NOV and the daily measured move short broken at 3628 on this past THU and FRI, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Of course this is subject to change at the drop of the hat, open of the mouth.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

Although this is not a very in depth description/ discussion, I think we may have a start at what will unfold through the end of 2013.

-Bill


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 Cashish 
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What Im thinking is after the run up since the beginning of NOV and the daily measured move short broken at 3628 on this past THU and FRI, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Of course this is subject to change at the drop of the hat, open of the mouth.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

Although this is not a very in depth description/ discussion, I think we may have a start at what will unfold through the end of 2013.

-Bill

Thanks @WilleeMac I'm going to turn you into a "Chatty Cathy" yet.

I think you have described a pretty good read of the COT data. For conversation's sake I'll comment on these two sentences I've extracted from your post.


Quoting 
.......Im thinking ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, the increase in commercial short is a hedge against the target of 1.409 or at least a move to the year highs of 3834.

Also I find it interesting that the non-com increase in long positions vs the commercial increase in short positions somebody is going to be wrong.

If you read what you wrote, you might realize you can't have it both ways. Not you per se, but the commercial traders you are analyzing. Have you ever heard the terms, smart money and dumb money? Usually this means Large Spec/smart money and Small Spec/dumb money. So where do the Commercials fit in, I assure you they are smart money or maybe a better definition would be smart complicated money. As you said, "commercial short is a hedge," the question is a hedge against what? A good rule of thumb is if the Commercials are short in the Futures Market, they are long in the Cash Market. I say complicated because in the Currency market it's a little more difficult to fathom what exactly they are hedging, it could be any number of cross rates or interest rates. For a simpler understanding think of a farmer hedging his soy bean crop that is sitting safe and secure in his grain bin just outside his backdoor. He's NOT looking to make money on his hedge, he's only attempting to secure the future value of his crop (not lose money). What I'm trying to say is, follow the Large Specs, the commercials are playing a completely different game. Large Spec are just that, large speculators (I think the reporting level in the 6E is 400 contracts!), speculating on the future price movement. Furthermore, on the surface it may appear the commercials are on the wrong side of the market, but if the majority of them are hedging positions in other markets, they're actually Happy Campers.

I thought I posted this link up thread (maybe not). I believe Carley Garner does a great job in this webinar introducing the basics of the COT Data as well as answering many common questions. I give it a thumbs up


Decoding the Commitment of Traders Report to Identify Overcrowded Trades

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 WilleeMac 
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The upper graph is the close price of the week (FRI) for the COT release on TUE of that said week.

After listening to the video (above link,) I'm watching the spec vs the hedgers - non-report in this six month segment seems to be negligible.

I'll start working on the last six months of this year.

And yes we can glean information from this, thank you @Cashish.

-Bill



Data set

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 Cashish 
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There's no School like the Old School

Once, twice or thrice?

For me, this is going to be a short post. I don't trade much during the month of December but I sure enjoy the solitude of sitting here in the still and quiet of the middle of the night! Actually, I find it calming, as long as I stay focused on trading and reading my charts. Due to the situation with my Daughter, staying focused is tough and my time here has been pretty much "hit or miss." Like most of us (I assume), I keep an eye on price movements when I'm away from my screen and piece together a plan in my head. This morning I was looking for rotation inside Yesterday's Value Area, I got it straight out of the gate around the open of the European Session. I stripped down this chart but there were many significant (according to My analysis) price levels embedded near the morning's high. Traders familiar with the 6E know what they were/are. I got short above Yesterday's POC and settled in for a slow grind lower but when those crazy Brits joined the party, well, the price movement had me thinking of the Steamroller Blues!









Thank you, Thank you very much

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 eminitrdr 
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Another distinct trade location possibility that made sense to me...IMO

Still recuperating from a recent surgery. Back to the Dr. today to get stitches removed. I'm not able to spend much time at my trading station...certainly not as much as I'd like.

As Mr. Cashish has emphasized time and again, it's all about RISK. Scaled in near y-day's VAL...stop below y-day's low...target y-day's POC.

Good trading to all and Happy Holidays, especially you Mr. Cashish

emini

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