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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist
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Trading the 6E Old School, With a Twist

  #341 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School


I'm late posting this, but here it is FWIW. While I was putting this together Ben's written comments came out, however the range is still only 60 ticks, I believe there's opportunity for much more movement. I hope to follow up with more detail but here are the numbers I've been watching during the overnight session.


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  #342 (permalink)
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There's no School like the Old School

Buying the High

This is a post I was working on Yesterday and was called away before I finished.

I took these snips at different times during the U.S. session, these are Daily Bars. Those that care to follow along may find it helpful to open a 1 or 5 minute chart to get a better idea of what this is all about. This first chart shows a high of 1.3141, and price at the time of the capture trading at 1.3138. The question is, Are you a Buyer at these levels? This post is a little more detail on how I use the "4" Numbers generated in previous posts. Coming into the Globex Session I had the 4 numbers, the use of these numbers is heavily dependent on price movements. To make this post a little easier to follow I'm only going to focus on the upper numbers. There are 4, Rally, Buy High, Yesterday's High and the TR Number.

The first chart is a daily chart, it shows the Rally and Buy High Number, these numbers are an average of price moves over a three day period (see previous posts). Big moves as well as tight daily ranges often skew these numbers, when they do common sense and knowledge of your market can become a very handy tool. The chart shows the Previous High, the Big whole number 1.3100 and the TR Sell Number was exceeded as well as the Buy High Number. So, if price was sitting near the High at 1.3141 would you be looking for a buying opportunity? The second and third charts are 5 minute charts, they "look back" at the top of last weeks big move and show POC Shifts of Volume when price was trading on those levels. Yea, Yea, Yea just a bunch of random lines. But, when price hits one of these levels and stops dead (1.3141) I take notice. Also when "Today's" 2 X Sell Number aligns with one of these levels I also take notice.

Buying a High is not for the faint of heart, but it can be profitable if a trader has a well defined target and most importantly strict risk management. This target (2 X Sell Number, 1.3156) in particular was a tough trade to take IMO. For price to "reach up" and tag this level the whole number 1.3150 had to be penetrated (Remember, take profit going to, not going thru whole numbers), furthermore, for price to reach this level the daily range must expand form 95 ticks to 110 ticks. Knowing the average daily range may help when faced with such a dilemma. This is one example of one move, I thought it offered piece by piece examples of what I look for when contemplating buying a high, the inverse would be a general guide for selling a low.


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Last edited by Cashish; July 17th, 2013 at 03:16 PM. Reason: Re-Post Charts
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Don't forget the Power of Yesterday's 50% level



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Last edited by Cashish; July 17th, 2013 at 02:12 PM. Reason: Add Chart
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  #344 (permalink)
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Waiting on Big Ben, again


Talk about boring with a capital "B." A 17 tick range for 4 hours, I was beginning to think it was Christmas Eve.

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Here's a spreadsheet i put together recording the 2am open. As for the pass/ fail, I was taking the 3am into account. It's a rough start but a start

Feel free to use as you wish

I firmly believe we can glean info from the hourly down to the lower time frames etc

-Bill_M

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  #347 (permalink)
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WilleeMac View Post
Here's a spreadsheet i put together recording the 2am open. As for the pass/ fail, I was taking the 3am into account. It's a rough start but a start

Feel free to use as you wish

I firmly believe we can glean info from the hourly down to the lower time frames etc

-Bill_M


I took a quick peek at this, sorry but I need more time to understand it. Can you give more details so I don't have to Re-think your objective? I'm a deep thinker, but a slow learner.

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Fish Fry tonight in eminitrdr's barnyard!!!

@eminitrdr A Nephew of mine sent me this picture. I have no idea who these guys are but THAT is one Big Catfish 178 pounds, that's 80 kilos to most of the world. Oh and BTW it was caught in the Ohio River. Grab your pole and a can of worms @wldman or, is that you? ,,,,, Notice: Location of fish fry may change


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Amazing...

just got back from golfing and fishing the Mississippi. Saw nothing quite like that one, but they are in there near the dams.

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@Cashish

"I took a quick peek at this, sorry but I need more time to understand it. Can you give more details so I don't have to Re-think your objective? I'm a deep thinker, but a slow learner."

My initial objective was to put a pencil to your original question, what is the percent of the time the 2am price action can lend insight to the possible PA for the remainder of the session 2-6am?

The H column is based on math, either it passed or failed (there might be some errors) according to your criteria - the smaller of the two numbers should be the high or the low for the next H1 price bar (3am) for confirmation.

If I recall correctly the 2am formula produced roughly 60% accuracy.

I then went back through the charts (I column) and added human judgement. For example: the next H1 bar could have pinned above/ below the 2am price and then continued on the original "math path."

For example: JAN 17 the formula failed, price action said otherwise - nice tail on that donkey. And JAN 18 was the same, just no donkey (trying to keep it clean here.)

The accuracy increased to roughly 70%.

For me this exercise has confirmed that weird things happen at weird hours.

I look for a dip/ tail/ wick of no more than 4-6 ticks off the open, that might give some direction esp when analyzed in concert w/ the other H1 bars


-Bill_M

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