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Big sell off at 1.3100 yesterday driving price down through 3050 (again) to that magnetic 1.3000 level. Yesterday's 100 point range redefined the heart of this whole move for the last 2 weeks. The mighty Euro has analysts far greater than me not knowing whether they should "scratch their watch or wind their ass." Big expectations for GDP numbers today might create a stir, and the fact it's a Friday, but who knows. The OI numbers this morning shows an increase, and I believe that says something given the trading range is, "getting old." The COT data is coming out this afternoon and I'll make my call, FWIW. I believe yesterday's OI numbers signify uncertainty or a lack of commitment to direction. Until this market closes below 1.2950 I have to remain bullish. I'm beginning to feel like the last man standing, my view is contrary to all the analysts I respect, but hey, what do they know! Looking back to Tuesday's OI and and making a prediction of the data on the COT report, I have to believe Large Spec continued to decrease their Net Short positions. Here are the updated charts. I'm back in the courtroom this morning and I'm going to miss the release of the GDP numbers (judges don't allow phones) my first look at the numbers will be after 11 a.m.. Thanks guys for following the thread, there is another twist to this but I haven't figured out how to present it, maybe today will answer that for me.
The COT Data for 4-23-13 shows Large Spec increased their Net Short positions 4,511 contracts to 34,275, this was a hard call for me to make. I do believe this data shows Large Spec were not against the idea of committing to the short side when price was trading under 1.3050, this was my basis for predicting a decrease in Net Short positions. This move lower was fueled by the EU PMI data and although price retraced 50% of the down move, price soon fell back to the safety of what has come to be its new home 1.3000.
Of all the price action of the week, the two moves that I believe deserve honorable mentions are the rejection of 1.2950 and the sell off after Goldman's comments about the ECB rate cut. When I analyze longer term movements I find it helpful to look at the market from the bear's side as well as the bull's side. After Tuesday's news fueled drop to the 50% retracement of this 1.2750 to 1.3200 move it appeared 1.2950 was dead in its sights. Everyone and their cat was waiting for the IFO numbers and when they came out the traders were there, in force. The move on Tuesday's PMI release generated over 6,600 contracts being traded in the 1 minute after the release. The move on Wednesday's IFO release matched that volume almost contract to contract, amazingly within a hundred contracts during each 1 minute period. Makes me believe in the notion, "it's the same players everyday." The bulls where there and 1.2950 was never touched, IMO, incredible! What I find just as fascinating is the rally that followed, a steady march from the U.S Open on Wednesday to the U.S. Open on Thursday, the range of the week!
And then it appears GS had had enough! I wanted to post this chart for us V-Whoppers, take what you want and leave the rest. I think it is a good example of a trading range that has no commitment to direction, when the dust settled the 6E was down only a few ticks for the day.
The two charts below are the week in profiles.
Volume on Price
Time on Price
I was surprised at the trading range on Friday. The GDP numbers fell short of the mark but nothing could be made of it, I guess the numbers were already "baked in the cake." The two profiles above suggest to me this market can retrace this range at will, with very little resistance. I think my "project" here is coming down to the "Final Four." I believe the GS comments were released at that level at that time, for a purpose. I also believe there’s a $h!t load of stop orders and options below 1.2950 that is helping hold this level. I think it's obvious now given the failed attempts of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday that it is going to take a major event to move this market either way. Mario can "git-r-done," so can NFP, but the docket is full next week and here are the "Final Four" that I believe could supply the propellant to, "get this party started." Tuesday, Chinese PMI data, Wednesday, FOMC rate decision, Thursday, Mario and Friday NFP. IMO, any credible talk either way about the ECB's outlook on rates could light the fuse, at any moment.
This whole method of charting the OI and tracking longer term movements was taught to me for options trading. I haven't come up with a way to present all the twists and turns but I at least wanted to put something out there. I also don't want to reinvent the wheel and do a whole "ground up" basic options primer. After searching for "something" I've decided to lean on, Carley.
I believe this gal is very smart, she knows options. Carley also did two "intro" to options webinars here on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT), if this topic of options interests you, search Carley Garner. When someone like Carley does a basics webinar on a topic they're expert in, and passionate about, you can almost feel the struggle they experience trying to "tone it down" and "keep the information basic." The link I posted is very well done (that's why I posted it) and if you're new to options, a great place to start.
I'm going to keep this very simple, this data is from the CME site. Just wanted to show how the movements we're having in the 6E is also stirring things up in the "spooky" world of options. I snipped these from the CME, to do so I had to omit the headings. Briefly, the far right column is surprise, Open Interest. Simply compare the OI of the top (PUT) panel OI data and the lower (PUT) panel data and you will see OI for the 1.2800 put increased by 1608, last week. This information is much more meaningful if you know the difference between a put and a call. Click the link above, and Carley will explain it all, (so I don't have to).
The Preliminary data shows Yesterday's price move increased the Open Interest to the highest level since the move off the April 4th low. I believe this indicates a renewed interest in the 6E at these levels by bulls and bears. With Chinese and Japanese markets closed during Sunday Night, Monday trading I thought the slow grind up was impressive. The 1.3120 level has been the turning point of every move above 1.3100 but, with the renewed interest and that 1.3050 level at the backs of the bulls again more attempts to test this area seem sure to materialize. The one area I'm watching is 1.3050, if price returns there I believe it is certain price will be sucked back into the value area of last week. So far I believe this market has developed a slightupward bias. Mario's comments are two days away and traders are adjusting positions in preparation for the event, this can mean a slow grind on light volume or fast moves with heavy volume. Control your RISK, also keep an eye on the holiday trading calendar.
For those who may have an interest in the OI data, I watch the range and volume of the U.S. "pit" session and base my projections, mostly on this range and volume only. Remember, the data isn't released until Friday afternoon, all the fireworks of this week will be over. The real benefit of this analysis is the ability to read the movements (value) in options, puts and calls. I hope to further that discussion soon.
I'm posting these charts to show price has entered into the level where Large Spec were previously Net Long. The first chart is becoming very busy when I compress it so I've included two charts I've previously posted. IMO, this data (COT Reports) allows me to see inside the longer term Volume Profiles and make informed decisions as to the true availability of participants at these historic levels. That was the original "reason" for marking the chart with the Fuzzy Green Line, this area could become a battle ground for the near future, only time will tell. I don't put much faith in historic VP ("nodes"), but I assure anyone following this thread, Whole Numbers will offer all the trading opportunities most traders could ask for.
Time, has been eluding me lately. Trust on an anonymous online forum seems ridiculous but FWIW, I haven't viewed the COT data. I consider evaluating the COT Data a personal objective I strive to attain, before this project it wasn't uncommon for me not to look at the COT Reports until Sunday night. This week was exciting, that's for sure, but the COT data was taken on Tuesday after the close so this post is focused on the data from the 4-24 Open til the 4-30 Close. The test and (what I'm calling) a "rejection" of 1.2950 on 4-24 was huge IMO. This day also marked the lowest level of Open Interest within the COT data period. Volume and OI grew as prices traded higher and volume and OI retracted as price traded lower to a climax of OI on light trading during the Monday session. What I feel was important about Monday's trade was the high of 1.3121. The 1.3120 level has been resistance more than a few times in the past, and if this level turns into support, the up move may continue, IMO. The high OI reading of Monday's trade signified to Me traders on both sides of the market were willing to "put their money where their mouth's are," at this level and Tuesday's trade didn't disappoint the Bulls. I also believe, Tuesday's trade leaned on the 1.3050 level and found it once again a strong support level. When all attempts to trade lower failed, I believe the retest of 1.3120 was inevitable. This move up to test 1.3120 triggered a short covering rally that propelled price thru 1.3150 and beyond, never to trade under 1.3150 again that day.
I'm still bullish this market, I believe the "go-no-go" range of 1.2950 and 1.3250 defines the battle ground. Do I think Large Spec are Net Long this week, no, but I (once again) believe this weeks data will show a Decrease in Net Short positions. My first (public) "call" on this COT project I got correct, on my notes here on my desk, I had a number of contracts I thought the Net Shorts would be reduced by (I didn't have the balls to post it), I missed by 1,094. My second (public) call missed big time, over 4,000, I was surprised. I'm pressed for time, again this morning and as I said haven't peeked at the data yet, . I do have a number written in my notes, but for reasons I'm still sorting out, I just can't post it! Here's the chart my decision is based on.
