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I didn't really think too much about the NFP really. I mean I knew it is a big news event and that it can tweak the market. That beibng said .. I kinda figured, maybe more like was kinda hoping that by the time I had jumped into my trades today, that the market had chewed up and spit out enough people, and that it was ready to be a little more predictable ..... (Wrongos )
I thought I saw two good signals that follow a pattern I have been watching/noticing with Price Action. Perhaps you have a great point about the NFP days as a whole?? Maybe that is why it did not work out today? I will definitely take your suggestion and add that to the list of things in my pocket, especially on the next NFP day.
Anyways, thanks for checking in hope to see you in here again and look forward to any future comments you might have.
bc
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I was just thinking that I never hear mentioned that with the exception of NFP a lot of the big headline days are not mentioned in terms of how goofy they can be. Days like retail sales, CPI, and trade balance are the others along with ADP days which the past couple of years has tended to be goofy. Sometimes it makes no difference but historically these days can throughout the day be goofy. What that really means is for example more volatility ,spikes, goofy swings, etc....You will notice your trades may work but require larger stops and so forth.
Like you say...just something to keep in mind.
I was only able to get off one trade today in the YM, as I had a bit of work to take care of that pulled me away from the charts off and on for most of the day.
The first couple of hours today were sooo choppy. Once price finally started moving, I thought I had identified a decent support level where price might turn, or at least provide a pullback that I could get something out of and then get back into the downtrend if possible. Price ended up hitting a 32wma on my chart and formed a semi shooting star/upside down hammer, and I quickly moved my stop to grab as much profit as possible as it was becoming clear that we were not done going down. I am thinking that I need to start learning how to best hit the "reverse" button as that would have been a good call today.
Being that I was not too confident of any of the morning set ups, I only entered with 1 contract, and quickly moved stop to b/e+1 once price was in my favor by 10 ticks. Once I saw the upside down hammer, I moved stop to just below where price was to capture the profits and not give any back . arrrrgh matey! Turned out it was the right call..... today.
Sooo, Day #1 I end up green by $32 after comm/fees. woo hoo! Hopefully tomorrow we will get back to a little more movement than the last few days have provided.
Thanks for stopping by, hope you had a green day too
I hope you don't mind, but I thought I'd provide you with a little different perspective because I think you received some bad advice.
First, 21 days is really nothing in terms of the time and practice required to develop the patience/discipline that's needed. Second, W/L percentage and P&L are two of the more meaningless measures you can use to gauge your progress.
Instead your focus should be on execution which would include the following:
trades taken that were part of the plan
trades taken that were not part of the plan
trades not taken that should have been
how you managed the trades taken
the results if you managed every trade taken according to plan
the results of trades not taken if managed according to plan
If you track the above information you can construct some good ratios that will tell you exactly where you're at and where you need to improve. You'll also find out if the methods you're using are sound, flawed, or if you lack the experience/understanding to implement them properly.
I could add more but this is a great place to start and will keep your focus on what drives the results (trading well) instead of the rewards.
Thanks for the comments! Some great suggestions you have laid out there, which I will implement into my journal here as best I can. Might take a few days to figure out how best to convey my thoughts and intents before, during and exiting a trade. Lots to chew on for sure .... luckily for me . it tastes pretty good
Thanks again for the input .. I really really appreciate it!
Hello, so back to day #1 for me today. I really just could not get a grip on things today for some reason. Lots of distractions and some emotions helped me slide backwards a little bit. I have posted a few pics of today's trades (a few missed opportunities, and 6 trades on the YM) and tried to explain what, why, where and how I got into them. (Thanks gibbs for the advice yesterday ... )
So overall today 6 trades in the YM for a -$106 for the day. Could have been much much worse, could have been much much better to. However, no time for the coulda woulda shoulda game .... just study it and learn from it and move on .. and git ready for tomorrow.
If you have any questions or comments, please let me know. Thanks!
For me a "trade = context + setup" where the setup is meaningless without the proper context. When you're evaluating your progress we have a similar equation - "performance = context + results" - where results are meaningless without the proper context. Let me give a couple of examples using a 2-lot on TF.
Day One - you go 4 for 5 and net $480. Looks good right? But what if the "context" was the following:
Trade 1 - good setup, good entry but it was the first trade of the day so you short armed it because you wanted to start off with a winner. The trade won 2.2 pts. per contract but if managed properly would have gained 4.8 pts. per contract.
Then, as often happens, you go into "conservation" mode because you're afraid to give back those gains. For most what usually happens is they don't trade again that day, but to your credit to continue to look for trades albeit with the wrong mindset which leads to other problems.
Trade 2 was a good setup, good entry but you really short armed this one and gained only 6 ticks per contract when it would have yielded 2.0.
Trade 3 was not a good trade and got what it deserved losing 1 pt. per contract.
Trade 4 was not a good trade either but ended up just a scratch.
Trade 5 was a good setup, good entry but once again you short armed it, got a lousy fill and made only 5 ticks when it would have yielded 2.3 if you followed your rules.
There were also 3 trades you were supposed to take but didn't (2 wins, 1 loss), and if properly managed would have yielded an additional 2.6 pts per contract.
Overall day one was a great day for trading but you took 2 trades you weren't supposed to, passed on 3 you were supposed to take, mismanaged every trade you took, and left about 8 pts. per contract on the table.....to use a poker analogy, you got your money in bad and sucked out.
Day Two - you go 2-4 and lose $80. Each trade was a good trade managed well, and there was only one marginal trade that you probably should have taken but understandably didn't. Overall day two was one of those miserable small range days with choppy price action that just doesn't offer much.....the kind of day you see a lot when VIX is in the low-mid teens, and the kind of day that destroys a lot of accounts.
If you just track W/L and P&L it looks like you traded well on Day One but poorly on Day Two when the opposite was actually true. In fact if you continue to trade the way you did on Day One you won't be around long, but if you continue to trade like you did on Day Two your future is bright.
This has gotten a bit long so I'll wrap things up with one final thought - try and remember that the goal is proficiency, not perfection, so when evaluating how you managed trades keep it simple and focus on your decision making at the time - NOT on what the market did after you exited because that's not relevant.
Again .. great input and info! Thanks so much. Makes soo much sense. I am really liking this way of thinking and looking at each trade and the who, what, why, whens and where's of putting it into context. I will be trying to log this info on my charts as the days move along so that I can have an ongoing chart journal which I will be able to post as well as use for documentation and total self insight and transparency of the things that are happening in my head before, during and after each trade ... oh and the ones I miss too.
Thanks again for taking the time to pump good info into my trading career, very very cool of you to do so.
So today was a bad day of trading for me. Seemed to be on the wrong side or too early and then had the deer in the headlights freeze up when the good set ups came around. Poor executions and fear were a horrible combo that netted me a nice 2/4 and -$564 in the hole for the day. Ouch!!
I tried to take notes on my charts throughout the day to log my emotions and what I was thinking before, during and after each trade or missed trade. (thanks again gibbs ). hopefully I will learn from my mistakes and successes and that you might be able to do the same.
If you have any questions or comments, please let me know.
Sorry to hear you had a bad day....I guess your learning to just wait for the best setups.
You might also consider scraping those small tick charts and move up to something like a 1597 or 2000 tick, they will weed out a lot of garbage and in general are more reliable.
) 
