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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

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  #1 (permalink)
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Hello all,

i am starting a thread to show that price forecasting is indeed possible once we think out of the box. attached is the price forecasting for S&P500 emini for 21 Nov 2011. I will be recording my forecast for a few markets when possible.

Timeframe (T) = Day trade
Trend (T) = Down
Entry (E) = Sell once price breaks 120100
Stop (S) = 121500
Target (T) = 118925, 118950

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  #3 (permalink)
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Hello all,

as forecast earlier today, S&P500 drop to the level as predicted. attached is the picture.

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Last edited by ecmf; Today at 10:11 PM.

I presume that wasn't to revise your forecast

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  #5 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Last edited by ecmf; Today at 10:11 PM.

I presume that wasn't to revise your forecast

Hello DionysusToast,

no, didn't change my forecast. just added that it was for S&P500. you can see the attachment picture was not changed.

thanks for reading

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  #6 (permalink)
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Pattern recognition models based on linear function does not work well on financial markets. Trying to fit nonlinear markets into a linear model will not have satisfactory outcome.

attached is the price forecast for S&P500 using chaos.

currently it is at 118400

based on the picture, if it goes above 119500, it will range between between 119500 and 120850, but if price breaks below 118075, more down turn is expected.

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  #7 (permalink)
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attached is the longer view for S&P500, currently it is achieving price equilibrium before making a move downwards. what will come will come and price will move lower to complete the bigger equilibrium.

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  #8 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is the longer view for S&P500, currently it is achieving price equilibrium before making a move downwards. what will come will come and price will move lower to complete the bigger equilibrium.

Feel free to predict the price for the bottom of the picture attached in the previous post.












answer : 127075---121550--116025

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  #9 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Feel free to predict the price for the bottom of the picture attached in the previous post.












answer : 127075---121550--116025


Is there a indicator to download and test on for Ninja.?

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  #10 (permalink)
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jta3 View Post
Is there a indicator to download and test on for Ninja.?

Thank you for your interest, before we start on the route of indicators, it will be more fruitful to first understand this unconventional concept of price forecasting.

attached is another picture, price has move down below the 1st equilibrium, and we begin the march towards the expected forecast price.

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  #11 (permalink)
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Okay, I'll bite. Forgive my ignorance:
  1. As I understand, the figures you are showing are histograms/sample PDFs of the prices of the prior day? Am I correct? Is volume somehow wrapped up in this?
  2. If #1 is correct, then you are forecasting the next day's price based on the median of the prior day's prices and the standard deviation of the prior day's prices. So, days with much volatility (big standard deviations) will cause your forecast line to have a steeper slope. Correct?
  3. How is this "chaos?" +1 for using sampled PDFs and not parameterized statistics, but I don't get how this incorporates some chaotic model. To me, this looks like some sort of support/resistance idea characterized by statistics (which would be pretty cool).

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ecmf View Post
Thank you for your interest, before we start on the route of indicators, it will be more fruitful to first understand this unconventional concept of price forecasting.

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  #13 (permalink)
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serac View Post
Okay, I'll bite. Forgive my ignorance:
  1. As I understand, the figures you are showing are histograms/sample PDFs of the prices of the prior day? Am I correct? Is volume somehow wrapped up in this?
  2. If #1 is correct, then you are forecasting the next day's price based on the median of the prior day's prices and the standard deviation of the prior day's prices. So, days with much volatility (big standard deviations) will cause your forecast line to have a steeper slope. Correct?
  3. How is this "chaos?" +1 for using sampled PDFs and not parameterized statistics, but I don't get how this incorporates some chaotic model. To me, this looks like some sort of support/resistance idea characterized by statistics (which would be pretty cool).

thank you for your interest. i will try to answer them
1) It is not based on sample PDFs and volume is not considered. It is made up frequency of traded price.

2) The prediction is not based on standard deviations, but the formation of equilibrium and its destruction.

3) You can use the most frequently traded price as a form of Support/Resistance but the concept is slightly more complex. It is chaos in the sense that we acknowledged that price movement is random but there is global determinism and local randomness in the movement and we are able to discern this global determinism to make our forecast.

I hope this helps.

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Big Mike View Post
Hi,

Please confirm that you are not a vendor and that you have nothing for sale, no products, no services and are not related or affiliated with any company who does have anything for sale, products or services, with regards to trading.

Mike

Hello Mike,

there will be no attempt to sell anything to anyone. I just wish to share my price prediction and to discuss the concept with anyone interested.

thank you

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  #15 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Feel free to predict the price for the bottom of the picture attached in the previous post.












answer : 127075---121550--116025

As predicted in my previous post, target price reached.

What must come will come, equilibrium will be achieved and will be broken resulting in chaos, and the whole cycle will be repeated again and again.

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Thanks for your reply.


ecmf View Post
1) It is not based on sample PDFs and volume is not considered. It is made up frequency of traded price.

So, the pyramid shaped objects are histograms of the previous day's prices frequency content? So, you're taking the FFT (or something similar)? Of tick data? Minute? Closing prices? Care to elaborate?


ecmf View Post
2) The prediction is not based on standard deviations, but the formation of equilibrium and its destruction.

Okay. Similar language was used to describe chaos theory's predecessor - catastrophe theory. You're drawing lines from the extreme ends of the frequency distribution. Somehow the horizontal distance must be important, too. Correct?


ecmf View Post
3) You can use the most frequently traded price as a form of Support/Resistance but the concept is slightly more complex. It is chaos in the sense that we acknowledged that price movement is random but there is global determinism and local randomness in the movement and we are able to discern this global determinism to make our forecast.

Is this all based on some heuristic on the frequency distribution, or some underlying (quantitative) theory? Can you elaborate?

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  #17 (permalink)
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attached is the price forecast for S&P500 as can be seen, heavy resistance for S&P500 as shown in the picture, there are a few balance points above current price.

if price breaks below 115900, it will move to 115850.

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serac View Post
Thanks for your reply.



So, the pyramid shaped objects are histograms of the previous day's prices frequency content? So, you're taking the FFT (or something similar)? Of tick data? Minute? Closing prices? Care to elaborate?



Okay. Similar language was used to describe chaos theory's predecessor - catastrophe theory. You're drawing lines from the extreme ends of the frequency distribution. Somehow the horizontal distance must be important, too. Correct?



Is this all based on some heuristic on the frequency distribution, or some underlying (quantitative) theory? Can you elaborate?

Hello serac,

thank you for your interest.

I will try to answer your questions.

the triangles are only drawn once we have identified our equilibrium, for a triangle to be drawn we need a point of origin (which could be the high, low or balance point), the forecast price (image pt) will be found once we connect a point of origin to another balance point.
A Balance point is simply the most frequently traded price for a interval. The high is the high price for a interval and the same applies to the low.
Raw tick data is used.
Finding equilibrium can be done after market hours or in real time.

Horizontal distance is of no importance, we need to find equilibrium by looking at the display of raw prices using non-fixed time intervals.

The theory is based on chaos and similar to sierpinski triangle.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Thanks for sharing your way of looking at the market.

If I understand you correctly the histogram you're using is basicly a TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profile that shows how much time price spent at a given price rather than how much volume traded there. Is that right?

How do you decide when the trend has changed? Would you perhaps be willing to post some charts about your method from between November 8 and November 15 or so, when there were large shifts in the prevailing trend?

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jta3 View Post
Is there a indicator to download and test on for Ninja.?

There is a choice of market profile indicators.


GomMP Market Profile Indicator 2.1 by @gomi





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Market Profile by @Vitaliy





TPO and Volume Profile Chart by FinAlg (commercial indicator)

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GoldStandard View Post
Thanks for sharing your way of looking at the market.

If I understand you correctly the histogram you're using is basicly a TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profile that shows how much time price spent at a given price rather than how much volume traded there. Is that right?

How do you decide when the trend has changed? Would you perhaps be willing to post some charts about your method from between November 8 and November 15 or so, when there were large shifts in the prevailing trend?

Hello GoldStandard,

many thanks for your interest and your questions.

I will try to answer them.

The chart is not a TPO profile. Time is meaningless without events and we use price as our events. The method used to create the chart is time independent and does not use volume at all, only price (tick data).
It does not assume a bell-curve distribution of price (does not depend on statistics) and a tendency to revert to the point of control. The forecasting method allows us to anticipate further price movement and makes forecast based on past price movement activity.

To look at the trend we look at the movement of BP and our equilibrium. Attached is the chart for Taiwan index futures for today which would highlight what i was saying. The green circle give us the reversal signal.

Price movement is an endless cycle between equilibrium and chaos. The method allow us when we are trading to see when equilibrium is achieved and when it is destroyed

Hope this helps.

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  #22 (permalink)
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attached is the price forecast for TXCC.TW which is the Taiwan Stock Index futures. At the time of this posting, price has already reached. Sorry for this delay and i hope to post before the event happens.

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Ok, please don't take this as 'attacking you', but confused...

1. Why do you want to get people interested in this method? For what benefit or outcome? Why do you personally wish this? I see many people start journals all for someone else than themselves? It is funny how I don't write in my journal at home for anyone else, maybe I should... haha...

2. This to me seems like MP TPO's using a trendline 100% ext. Nothing magical here to me, but a different way to look at the market. Why not explain what it is, and help others learn instead of being reclusive?

I guess I don't get the point of why you present it this way, and I guess you are letting suspense build up until we just can't take it anymore? haha.. I am sure you have your reasons, but doesn't make sense from a straight shooter.

I appreciate you posting your different view on the markets as we all learn.

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attached is the price forecast for EURUSD, this is a slightly longer term forecast and not a day trade forecast.
From the picture, you can see heavy resistance for EURUSD especially 1.3521 area. Also we can see an equilibrium at 13858- 13521- 13191, 13421 was broken, so price is moving down and eventually it will move to 13191 completing the equilibrium.

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bluemele View Post
Ok, please don't take this as 'attacking you', but confused...

1. Why do you want to get people interested in this method? For what benefit or outcome? Why do you personally wish this? I see many people start journals all for someone else than themselves? It is funny how I don't write in my journal at home for anyone else, maybe I should... haha...

2. This to me seems like MP TPO's using a trendline 100% ext. Nothing magical here to me, but a different way to look at the market. Why not explain what it is, and help others learn instead of being reclusive?

I guess I don't get the point of why you present it this way, and I guess you are letting suspense build up until we just can't take it anymore? haha.. I am sure you have your reasons, but doesn't make sense from a straight shooter.

I appreciate you posting your different view on the markets as we all learn.

Hello bluemele,

no offense at all. it is good to learn from each other. I will try to answer your questions.

1) I have learn this concept from Mr. Chen who happen to live in Hawaii over 20 years and he had a dream : To be able to forecast price. Price forecast was believed to be impossible by many people since the last century. Through his theory, I believe his dream may have come true. i also like to share with people who are interested in this new way to view price movements.

2) I can assure you that it is not like MP TPO's. Like i explain earlier, the method used is time independent and it is based on the endless cycle of building and destoying equilibrium. Based on the non fixed time interval,the method integrates equilibrium concept (from chaos theory) and the principle of "symmetry of events" to allow us to forecast price. I do not think MP is able to do price forecast.

Thank you for your interest.

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  #26 (permalink)
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It's a little complex to se and test your ideer. I se alot of symmetry ind markedet. W. D. Gann have many tools for that. "Square of nine"

What timeframe can you make prediction on. and how do you test this.?

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ecmf View Post
Hello bluemele,

no offense at all. it is good to learn from each other. I will try to answer your questions.

1) I have learn this concept from Mr. Chen who happen to live in Hawaii over 20 years and he had a dream : To be able to forecast price. Price forecast was believed to be impossible by many people since the last century. Through his theory, I believe his dream may have come true. i also like to share with people who are interested in this new way to view price movements.

2) I can assure you that it is not like MP TPO's. Like i explain earlier, the method used is time independent and it is based on the endless cycle of building and destoying equilibrium. Based on the non fixed time interval,the method integrates equilibrium concept (from chaos theory) and the principle of "symmetry of events" to allow us to forecast price. I do not think MP is able to do price forecast.

Thank you for your interest.

Ok, @ecmf why not cut the chase and give up your indicator and tell @bluemele and others how they can duplicate your method. No disrespect but so far nothing is really explained and nothing is learned.

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  #28 (permalink)
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attached is the chart for USDCHF, it show the clear movement of price and how to take advantage of it.

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  #29 (permalink)
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Is this a conclusion of what there have happened.?

Can you put something for the future. next 2 hours or something like that.?

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Further info on the method:

This article and more available at Investopedia.com

Software is called J-Chart, just google it.


I've come across this method over 10 years ago, to me there are lots of similarities with Market Profile. Using ticks vs. TPOs doesn't make a great difference to me.

Market forms an equilibrium /balance and breaks out of that equilibrium at some point in time, makes a large move to then balance again and so forth, nothing new here.

Maybe the concept of establishing price targets shown by the triangles is something unique. Don't know how well it works but I'm a curious cat so I'll follow this journal.

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  #31 (permalink)
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TheSeeker View Post
Further info on the method:

This article and more available at Investopedia.com


Maybe the concept of establishing price targets shown by the triangles is something unique. Don't know how well it works but I'm a curious cat so I'll follow this journal.

Isn't the triangle just a 100% ext?

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  #32 (permalink)
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Hello all,

many thanks for the interests and questions to the forecast method.

I wish to emphasis that J-Chart is both the name of the method and also the software used to create my charts. I am only discussing the theory of J-Chart and not on the software which is just a means of applying the theory, once the theory is known, you can use any software/means to apply the theory of J-Chart.

Attached are some seminar notes from Mr Chen, the founder of the theory of J-Chart.

hope it is helpful

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  #33 (permalink)
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TheSeeker View Post
Further info on the method:

This article and more available at Investopedia.com

Software is called J-Chart, just google it.


I've come across this method over 10 years ago, to me there are lots of similarities with Market Profile. Using ticks vs. TPOs doesn't make a great difference to me.

Market forms an equilibrium /balance and breaks out of that equilibrium at some point in time, makes a large move to then balance again and so forth, nothing new here.

Maybe the concept of establishing price targets shown by the triangles is something unique. Don't know how well it works but I'm a curious cat so I'll follow this journal.

Hello TheSeeker,

many thanks for being able to recognise the method after such a long time, i wish to emphasis that J-Chart is both the name of the theory and the software used to generate the charts and for analysis. I am just discussing the theory of J-Chart, and i have attached some notes on it in my previous post.

I do think there is a huge difference in using tick data vs TPOs.

Hope this is helpful.

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  #34 (permalink)
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jta3 View Post
Is this a conclusion of what there have happened.?

Can you put something for the future. next 2 hours or something like that.?

Hello jta3,

I do agree that it looks like a conclusion of what that have happened, this is because that was a real time trading and it happen fast and furious due to the sudden spikes.

The main point is to show that the method holds up well even in fast moving market.

I did post a few longer position trades that show event before happening, you can refer to post 1, 2 and post 7, 8 and 15 and i have posted a EURUSD chart and we can see if target is reached (not yet).

I am also attaching 2 more charts on real time trading for ES, also to show that it is able to hold up well in intra-day trading.

In addition, i have also attach some notes by Mr Chen in my previous post (post 32) to explain more the theory of J-Chart which also have some example day trading trades.

Hope this helps.

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Ok, @ecmf why not cut the chase and give up your indicator and tell @bluemele and others how they can duplicate your method. No disrespect but so far nothing is really explained and nothing is learned.

Hello aligator,

thank you for your interests. You may refer to post 32 where i have attached some notes on the method.

Hope it is helpful

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Isn't the triangle just a 100% ext?

Hello bluemele,

many thanks for the interests, you may want to refer to my post 32 and it is not 100% ext.

Hope it is helpful.

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Hello all,

attached is a picture for EURUSD after the massive intervention efforts by the central banks. As we can see in the picture, the the lower part of the triangle (yellow dotted rectangle) is fairly saturated and price has been trapped in the range for a while, do note that the upper part of the triangle is still unfilled, since price is not able to go below the triangle, breaking it, it will move up to fill the upper part. A up move is due to complete the equilibrium. The intervention by the central banks is just a trigger for price to move higher.

Do note that even with this massive intervention, the equilibrium 13530---13371---13211 held firm.

more details can be seen on the chart.

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hello all,

attached is another chart for S&P500 today trading. i apologizes for not uploading earlier as we are caught up with the trading frenzy.

best regards

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you keep saying (we) who is we? lol sharky

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this is just another way of looking at s/r and the balance of the market there are many ways to see the same thing,from what i know of this method it is not something speacial just another way of seeing price and what it has done,if you can already trade and understand price action and how to read vol,then you are already doing the same thing basically.or if you understand how to use s/r properly then you can also acheive the same results.but everyone has a different ability to learn and it might take one method to make them see what another method could not show them even if it is showing them the same thing...sharky

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also i would not really call it forcasting as many have said it is impossible,if you know what the balance point of the market is and understand what price does most of the time then it is more than likely to do what it is known to do all over again but not a for sure,trading is trading sometimes you make the right edgucated guess and sometimes you dont...sharky

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also i would not really call it forcasting as many have said it is impossible,if you know what the balance point of the market is and understand what price does most of the time then it is more than likely to do what it is known to do all over again but not a for sure,trading is trading sometimes you make the right edgucated guess and sometimes you dont...sharky

Hello Sharky,

many thanks for your replies. However i do not agree that forecasting is not possible, i have posted some charts e.g the first post on forecasting price. I do acknowledged that price is random but there is order within this chaos of price movement. I have attached a document in post 32 which you can take a look. The method give us a logical way to discern the "invisible hand of the market" allowing us to forecast price movement.

Hope this is helpful.

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now your sounding like a brainwashed parrot,we get the point that you beleive that you found the holy grail,but im telling you that your wrong.price forcasting is not possible 100% of the time so the method although it might be a sound method is not really a forcasting method that is any better than what i have already explained also.you cant forcast what will happen because you do not personally control what goes on in the world.that is what makes me a profitable scalper because i figured out a long time ago that just because im in a good overnight trade with a perfect entry that does not stop someone in nigeria or ubeckistan from blowing up a pipeline and throwing the price of oil into haywire for a few days.you dont decide when things get blown up or when a earthquake hits,you dont decide when a hurricane or a war starts so how can you say what is going to happen in 2 hrs from now?,you cant you can only say what is likely to happen because everything says that this is the likely direction the market should move in,so once again i would like to say that forcasting is not really possible...sharky

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now your sounding like a brainwashed parrot,we get the point that you beleive that you found the holy grail,but im telling you that your wrong.price forcasting is not possible 100% of the time so the method although it might be a sound method is not really a forcasting method that is any better than what i have already explained also.you cant forcast what will happen because you do not personally control what goes on in the world.that is what makes me a profitable scalper because i figured out a long time ago that just because im in a good overnight trade with a perfect entry that does not stop someone in nigeria or ubeckistan from blowing up a pipeline and throwing the price of oil into haywire for a few days.you dont decide when things get blown up or when a earthquake hits,you dont decide when a hurricane or a war starts so how can you say what is going to happen in 2 hrs from now?,you cant you can only say what is likely to happen because everything says that this is the likely direction the market should move in,so once again i would like to say that forcasting is not really possible...sharky

hello sharky,

We do not know each other but i can predict what going happen to you and me.
we don't know each others education background, how wealthy we are etc, But i do know one thing, both of us will eventually die. Please do not be offended. Any event or system that can be observed will have an equilibrium status, even price. However this equilibrium is not eternal, it will break down and becomes chaos. This endless cycle between chaos and equilibrium can be constantly monitor through a process.

For example, once a doctor diagnosed that a patient has end stage cancer, he is able to give an approximate life span for the patient before the body equilibrium of the patient collapse (patient dies). Thus it is the same for price forecast, we are looking for the equilibrium and its destruction, this is also the basis of chaos theory.
Chaos and equilibrium are intertwined, price is random and chaotic but by looking for the equilibrium within the chaos, we will be able to forecast price.

Hope this helps.

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however the patient might still survive thru some miraculas intervention,so to say he is going to die for sure is a best educated guess not a for sure thing.but i concede that you can forcast with some effectiveness several different ways.but.... this is bmt we dont ooooh and aww very easy we are here to teach and learn not look at photos of what might be,i look foward to reading you thread more if you decide to teach something,have a nice Christmas and a good new year...sharky

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Is there a indicator to download and test on. Or is it something you have pay for.?

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however the patient might still survive thru some miraculas intervention,so to say he is going to die for sure is a best educated guess not a for sure thing.but i concede that you can forcast with some effectiveness several different ways.but.... this is bmt we dont ooooh and aww very easy we are here to teach and learn not look at photos of what might be,i look foward to reading you thread more if you decide to teach something,have a nice Christmas and a good new year...sharky

Hello Sharky,

many thanks for your interests and comments.

I am not teaching but rather sharing the theory of J-Chart and i welcome discussions from all of you so that we can learn from each other.

The theory of J-Chart was found by Mr John Chen after a disastrous trading experience and its has its roots in I-Ching as well as chaos theory. Mr John Chen forward test the theory for more than a decade to prove his findings as he does not believe that back testing is robust and sufficient to prove the validity of the theory. He feels that back-testing is akin to the fairy tale Cinderella. He has unselfishly shared the theory with others and i am just sharing what little i have learned from him, more details can be found in the pdf which i have uploaded in post 32.

Hope this helps.

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Is there a indicator to download and test on. Or is it something you have pay for.?

Hello Jta3,

As i have replied to Big Mike, there is no selling of software or services. I am just sharing the theory of J-Chart.

Once you understand the theory, you can implement it in any ways or means. You can even use Excel.

This is a rough sketch of how J-chart is drawn:

1) Use tick data
2) Record each price transaction, each transaction we mark it with a stroke, after 5 transactions we use the Chinese character "正
3) We should have the freedom to freely combine the prices in any time intervals based on the needs because chaos and equilibrium are intertwined. Equilibrium can emerged at any time intervals, e.g. 1.1 days, 2.1 hrs etc.
4) An equilibrium is usually found in a triangle and its apex will be a balance point and the other point of origin will be a high/low/another balance point and an image point. The image point is the forecast price.

You can refer to the pdf in post 32 for more details

Hope this helps.

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hello all,

attached is a day trade chart for TXCC which is Taiwan Stock Index future. at of this time, forecast price 7145 has reached. The short entry was entered at 7200 when price move below the balance point 7198.
This is one of the way how J-Chart can be used to forecast the target price to take profit and how to enter into a trade.

Hope this helps.

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with reference to my last post on TXCC,

if price can't get above 7174 it will move down to 7106 this is provided price manage to break 7143 which is the low so far.

Hope this helps.

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now 28, shorted at 61 now move stop to 54 to protect

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so far low is still at 16.

J-chart gives a clear entry point to enter into a positon, taking profit can be at forecasted price or using a moving stop.

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Trade position close at 7121.

Apologies for the brief posts, as this was a live trading update and show how we use the theory of J-chart to have clear entry points and how the trade was concluded.

To recap, short entry at 7161 with stop at 7174
position close at 7121 via moving stop

Hope this helps.

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ecmf View Post
hello all,

attached is a day trade chart for TXCC which is Taiwan Stock Index future. at of this time, forecast price 7145 has reached. The short entry was entered at 7200 when price move below the balance point 7198.
This is one of the way how J-Chart can be used to forecast the target price to take profit and how to enter into a trade.

Hope this helps.

emrf,

As was discussed before, J-chart is very similar to Profile and POC with the difference that profile plots price levels traded at different times (A,B,C, etc) within a certain time span (i.e. 60 min, 1 day, etc.) and J-chart shows 5-tick increments traded at different price levels.

Now can you simply tell us what the vertical lines in your screen shot represent, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 1 day, etc?

By the way, the pdf in your note #32 does not explain much the concept at all, it assumes you know what every thing on that chart is. All it says is how good j chart is and how everything else is worthless. Can you provide a reference for more detail on how the chart is constructed, interpreted and traded.

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i think he's trying to sell the idea that hes not selling something...every one thinks we are idiots here at bmt i guess...sharky

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sharky View Post
i think he's trying to sell the idea that hes not selling something...every one thinks we are idiots here at bmt i guess...sharky

@sharky,

Ditto! I think if someone modify the Market Profile indicator to draw tick bars instead of volume bars at different price levels it will be exactly the J-chart.

Cheers!

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i think he's trying to sell the idea that hes not selling something...every one thinks we are idiots here at bmt i guess...sharky

Hello sharky,

i think that it is very unfair of you to say such things, i have replied to Big Mike when asked, that i am not selling any thing and i have not, now or in future. I challenge anyone who think/feel that i am not speaking the truth on this matter to produce evidence that i am trying to sell anything to anyone.

Your comment i think are in very bad faith and an attack on my integrity, to claim that i am guilty of such intentions when there are non.

I will iterate again that i am not selling anything and i am just discussing the forecasting method of J-Chart.

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emrf,

As was discussed before, J-chart is very similar to Profile and POC with the difference that profile plots price levels traded at different times (A,B,C, etc) within a certain time span (i.e. 60 min, 1 day, etc.) and J-chart shows 5-tick increments traded at different price levels.

Now can you simply tell us what the vertical lines in your screen shot represent, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 1 day, etc?

By the way, the pdf in your note #32 does not explain much the concept at all, it assumes you know what every thing on that chart is. All it says is how good j chart is and how everything else is worthless. Can you provide a reference for more detail on how the chart is constructed, interpreted and traded.

Hello aligator,

theSeeker post a link in his post 30 which does give an overview of J-Chart including how it is constructed, how it was used and also difference between J-Chart and Market Profile. Also towards the end of the pdf which i have uploaded, there is an explanation on a trade, did you read both?

Do not be constrained by fixed time intervals, the vertical lines depend on the needs on how to find equilibrium, it could be 2.1 days, 1.1 hrs etc.

Hope this helps

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ecmf View Post
Hello sharky,

i think that it is very unfair of you to say such things, i have replied to Big Mike when asked, that i am not selling any thing and i have not, now or in future. I challenge anyone who think/feel that i am not speaking the truth on this matter to produce evidence that i am trying to sell anything to anyone.

Your comment i think are in very bad faith and an attack on my integrity, to claim that i am guilty of such intentions when there are non.

I will iterate again that i am not selling anything and i am just discussing the forecasting method of J-Chart.

@ecmf,

Be cool ecmf, some people may be frustrated with your style of piece meal explaining (or non-explaining) of the J-Chart method without really revealing substantial insights. Unless you can explain in detail the method (Logic, construction, interpretation, trading rules, etc.) and provide some actual before-the-fact predictions people are going to think you are just making a plug (although unintentional). People need to understand it before they become interested and say WOW!

Here on futures.io (formerly BMT) we have a bunch no none sense sharp coders and expert advisers that are very helpful and share details with all unselfishly. We have had experience with vendors or vendor pushers in the past, so its easy for people to become suspicious.

If J-Chart is truly a good trading tool then it deserves a proper introduction to attract new interest.

Good Luck!

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@ecmf,

Be cool ecmf, some people may be frustrated with your style of piece meal explaining (or non-explaining) of the J-Chart method without really revealing substantial insights. Unless you can explain in detail the method (Logic, construction, interpretation, trading rules, etc.) and provide some actual before-the-fact predictions people are going to think you are just making a plug (although unintentional). People need to understand it before they become interested and say WOW!

Here on futures.io (formerly BMT) we have a bunch no none sense sharp coders and expert advisers that are very helpful and share details with all unselfishly. We have had experience with vendors or vendor pushers in the past, so its easy for people to become suspicious.

If J-Chart is truly a good trading tool then it deserves a proper introduction to attract new interest.

Good Luck!

Hello aligator,

I am open to questions asked about the method and for discussion on the method, but i do think that it is bad and very unfair to openly hint that i have ulterior motives to push any services or software in discussing my method when there are no evidence.

So I am now guilty unless proven innocent?

In my first post, i did make a forecast before the event which you are welcome to check, and i did make a few others. Earlier i made a series of posts on a Taiwan index futures trade.

I do take note of your complaints that there seem to be nothing substantial, but i feel and hope that theSeeker's link and my uploaded pdf with examples do have some substance of interest.

Unfortunately Mr John Chen's book was published in Chinese and i do have to read a couple of times before the theory sink in and i will fully admit i have only scratched the surface.

Do bear with me as i attempt to do my best to explain the theory to do justice to Mr John's findings which i feel is more important than the software. Once the concepts are known, you can do it in whatever way you want. Most people are used to seeing candlesticks or bar charts and it is quite difficult to explain a radical change in the way the charts are presented and interpreted.

Hope this helps.

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Well i guess my intentions for discussions and sharing of J-Chart have been deem to be insidious and the tactics of a vendor trying to push services/software.

It is true that it is difficult to teach an old dog any new tricks and i will leave it as such.

I thank all who has shown interests and questions and i hope i have answered the questions or comments to the best of my ability, if any one is interested, they can refer to the link posted by theSeeker, my uploaded pdf and my posts.

Any more posts from me if any will be strictly just a record of trades and charts as this is a trading journal.

Good luck to all.

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attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

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ecmf View Post
attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

Good job @ecmf. Steve Nissen became famous translating candle stick literature. Have you considered translating Chen' s J-Chart stuff?

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ecmf View Post

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

How do you know when the equilibrium has been completed ? Do you enter the trade on the break of a specific price level or on the pullback to it after the break out ?

I always do the latter to avoid false break outs which can quickly kill your account.

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Good job @ecmf. Steve Nissen became famous translating candle stick literature. Have you considered translating Chen' s J-Chart stuff?

Hello aligator,

many thanks for your continued interest in the method, i think translation is a good idea, but it will largely depend on the publisher and Mr John Chen.

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TheSeeker View Post
How do you know when the equilibrium has been completed ? Do you enter the trade on the break of a specific price level or on the pullback to it after the break out ?

I always do the latter to avoid false break outs which can quickly kill your account.

Hello theSeeker,

many thanks for your interest and questions and i will try to answer them.

1) Equilibrium is completed when price has reached the vertices of the triangle and it is broken when price move beyond the top and bottom of the triangle.
From the chart 1, price has already pull back and it has broken EQ 13550 - 13524 - 13498 (dotted yellow triangle in 2nd chart) which is a EQ formed after the bigger EQ 13417 - 13484 - 13551 and it has broken BP13458. When price broke 13498, the bias is bearish, sell order was below 13458 as it is safer due to more resistance levels above it.

2) In my opinion, candlesticks do usually give false break outs making us lose money because it does not have predictive value. As long as eq is broken, trade will be done in the direction of the break. Sell 1 can be executed after breaking 13498 good for aggressive trader and it has 2 EQ and 2 BP as resistance levels, which is quite safe to sell. Sell 2 was done at 13456 which i did. We did not sell at Sell1 because there was a BP13484, for larger positions (60-100 lots) it is better to be safe than to be aggressive.

Hope this help.

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  #67 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is the pre-trade analysis for S&P500, as shown on the chart, bears are getting the upper hand to the downside.

If price move below 123500, we will sell.

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  #68 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

As highlighted from the previous post, EURUSD is indeed wandering within the yellow rectangle in chart 2, high was 1.3484.

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  #69 (permalink)
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attached are 3 charts for EURUSD trade today.

The first chart was the pre-trade forecast and the 2nd chart was the real time trading, once the EQ 13404 - 13394 - 13384 was broken, trade was done in the direction of the break down. Take profit was at the 13332. Price then rebounded because of the BP 13330 of the bigger EQ as show in chart 3(also shown in the previous post). This trade showcase the completion of EQ (13546 - 13444 - 13332) and the support of a bigger EQ through its BP.

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  #70 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached are 3 charts for EURUSD trade today.

The first chart was the pre-trade forecast and the 2nd chart was the real time trading, once the EQ 13404 - 13394 - 13384 was broken, trade was done in the direction of the break down. Take profit was at the 13332. Price then rebounded because of the BP 13330 of the bigger EQ as show in chart 3(also shown in the previous post). This trade showcase the completion of EQ (13546 - 13444 - 13332) and the support of a bigger EQ through its BP.

After a rally when favourable German factory news was released, a sell limit was trigger at 1.3410, attach is a chart which show heavy resistance at 1.3458, the chart also show a key difference in the construction of a J-Chart compared to a Market Profile chart, from the chart, all the equilibrium are formed with non fixed time intervals, depending on the need to find equilibrium for trading.

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  #71 (permalink)
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as noted in the previous chart, there are strong resistance from 1.3450 to 1.3480, after a rally up, a sell order (around 516 orders) was done at 1.3450, exited half at 1.3405, the rest trailing stop above 1.3444 . attached is the chart showing the price for today.

Edit: This is a day trade, the rest of positions looking to exit at 1.3370 (BP of the bigger EQ) if price reaches there or 1.3444 (Stop loss) if price retraces back (refer to 2nd chart to see the BP).

Edit 2: stop will be moved to 1.3430 if price break 1.3400

Edit 3: when price moves down near 1.3372, trailing stop will be moved to 1.3418, looking to close 1/2 of the remaining positions at 1.3372 and looking to close the rest at 1.3330 if price does reaches there.

Edit 4: trailing stop now moved from 1.3418 to 1.3410, if closed 1/2 of remaining positions at 1.3372, trailing stop will be moved to 1.3401 for the rest (refer to chart 3, showing EQ 13452---13412---13372 and how price is moving towards it to complete the equilibrium)

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  #72 (permalink)
Belgium
 
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Fat Tails View Post
There is a choice of market profile indicators.

Market Profile by @Vitaliy



This one is from hegh/hegh2000/ad2r, french developper. No russian blood in there

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  #73 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
as noted in the previous chart, there are strong resistance from 1.3450 to 1.3480, after a rally up, a sell order (around 516 orders) was done at 1.3450, exited half at 1.3405, the rest trailing stop above 1.3444 . attached is the chart showing the price for today.

Edit: This is a day trade, the rest of positions looking to exit at 1.3370 (BP of the bigger EQ) if price reaches there or 1.3444 (Stop loss) if price retraces back (refer to 2nd chart to see the BP).

Edit 2: stop will be moved to 1.3430 if price break 1.3400

Edit 3: when price moves down near 1.3372, trailing stop will be moved to 1.3418, looking to close 1/2 of the remaining positions at 1.3372 and looking to close the rest at 1.3330 if price does reaches there.

Edit 4: trailing stop now moved from 1.3418 to 1.3410, if closed 1/2 of remaining positions at 1.3372, trailing stop will be moved to 1.3401 for the rest (refer to chart 3, showing EQ 13452---13412---13372 and how price is moving towards it to complete the equilibrium)

Price reached 1.3372 and 1/2 of the remaining position are closed and the trailing stop was move to 1.3391 when was hit a while ago, therefore all positions are closed. attached is the chart. from the chart, all positions should be close at the 1.3358 due to the perfect EQ 1.3390 - 13374 - 13358.

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  #74 (permalink)
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SARdynamite View Post
This one is from hegh/hegh2000/ad2r, french developper. No russian blood in there

hello SARdynamite,

the charts shown are not based on Market Profile, please read theSeeker's link in post 30 for more details and my uploaded notes.

Hope this help.

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  #75 (permalink)
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attached are the charts for EURUSD during the ECB announcement, in chart 1 a price forecast was done before the ECB rate cut and price was 1.3404-1.3408.

Chart 2 was the chart after ECB rate was announced.

In chart 3 if price breaks 1.3310, it will go down to 1.3250

Edit: This shows that outside event does not affect the outcome of an equilibrium instead it contribute to the completion of an equilibrium. AN equilibrium is akin to the invisible hand of the market.

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  #76 (permalink)
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attach is the chart showing the perfect EQ 13466-13400-13333 which is now broken and price should move lower to complete the bigger equilibrium around 13250.

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  #77 (permalink)
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attached is the updated chart for EURUSD, if price break 1.3256 and if ES break 124350 - 124200 (about 10-12 pts away currently), it may be the start of a new down trend.

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  #78 (permalink)
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attached are 2 charts for Taiwan index futures, by finding the equilibrium on the day, trade can be done once the eq is broken. The break of eq offers the best entry compared to using other conventional indicators. Trade can even be done without any historical data, just need to find the equilibrium in real time and observe how price moves with the "invisible hand of the market".



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  #79 (permalink)
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attached is a chart of CSI 300 China Index futures, as shown on the chart, if an equilibrium can be clearly found, it is not hard to enter into a trade. just follow the eq especially when it break. Price has broken 2549 and it will go down further.

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  #80 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for a day trade based on price forecasting, buy order was trigger around 1.3326 (price move about BP 1.3322) and take profit was at 1.3366 as forecast on the chart.

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  #81 (permalink)
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attached are 3 charts for day trade, sold at 1.3408 and take profit at 1.3322.

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  #82 (permalink)
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attached is the chart for EURUSD, the yellow circle is made up of prices from 23 Nov till 9 Dec 2011.

均衡的完成與破壞就是市場那隻看不見的手運作的方式a
The completion and destruction of equilibrium is how the invisible hand of the market works in the market.

大均衡由無數小均衡透過混沌過程累積而成
Big equilibrium are made up of smaller equilibrium through the process of chaos

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  #83 (permalink)
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attached is a XAU/USD chart, gold rally from 1595 to 1802 and then the rally fizzle, as shown in the dotted white triangle, the equilibrium is nearly completed and near saturation, most likely gold will move down when price break the EQ 1762.8-1714.5-1666.4.

Edit: attached is another chart, look to sell at around 1740.5, for day trading, special attention must be paid to smaller newer eq and balance point. Pre-market analysis is only for reference before trading begins. For e.g. in day trade, it is possible to buy and exit at 1741 although we have a bearish pre-market analysis.

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  #84 (permalink)
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attached is a chart which show the effect of resonance in J-Chart, when price reach 1755.8 on 8 Dec 2011, it has the same image point as the previous 2 equilibrium. usually when this happens, resonance occur and there is a high change of reversal which happen in this case. On that day, many traders are lull into a false sense of security when price move past 1747.5, it is a bullish sign and it generate bullish signals in many indicators like RSI. But it is a bull trap it fell almost 52 dollars from 1755.8 to 1703.3, if buy at 1747.5, almost loss of 42 dollars.

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  #85 (permalink)
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attached is the latest XAU/USD, as analyzed in previous posts, bearish bias on gold which is playing out now. looking to sell when price breaks around 1703.

Update: EQ1762.8 - 1712 -1661.2 was broken, low was 1660.5. With the breaking of this eq, price should move lower.

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  #86 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for China Shanghai Index futures, the trend and the entry prices are easy seen from the chart and it is not impossible to earn a million with sufficient capital in this trade.

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  #87 (permalink)
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Can you do the same on other timeframe like weekly, Month.?

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  #88 (permalink)
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jta3 View Post
Can you do the same on other timeframe like weekly, Month.?

Hello jta3,

thanks for asking and your interest.

J-Chart is not limited by time, it depends on your trading time frame and then we try to find the required equilibrium needed. Your trading time frame will dictate how big or small an equilibrium will be needed.
For e.g in in stock trading we do use larger equilibrium which may consist of 50 days or more.
It is much easier to trade stocks but i don't like to wait for the profit.
It is also easier to see the trend with bigger equilibrium

Hope this helps.

Update: attached is a chart for HTC, the chart shows about 200 days.
The bigger equilibrium shows clearly the trend and the forecast price. For stock, it usually take some time before forecast price is reached.

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  #89 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for EURUSD, a temporary low is formed as seen in the eq 1.3858 - 1.3458 - 1.3058 and if it break, price will go down. The lowest significant BP is at 1.3186 and this is a strong indication that the price will go down further.

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  #90 (permalink)
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as posted in my last post, EUR/USD has indeed move down further and it has broken through 1.3000 as shown in the chart.

Update: Some thoughts on the fundamentals of euro, IMHO to solve the euro zone problem, the countries have to do the following : 1) devalue euro 2) sell their gold reserves. So it will not be a good idea now to buy both.

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  #91 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is a chart which show the effect of resonance in J-Chart, when price reach 1755.8 on 8 Dec 2011, it has the same image point as the previous 2 equilibrium. usually when this happens, resonance occur and there is a high change of reversal which happen in this case. On that day, many traders are lull into a false sense of security when price move past 1747.5, it is a bullish sign and it generate bullish signals in many indicators like RSI. But it is a bull trap it fell almost 52 dollars from 1755.8 to 1703.3, if buy at 1747.5, almost loss of 42 dollars.

As shown in the last chart on XAU/USD when price break through the big eq at around 1703 and sell orders are executed, possible to earn nearly 10k profit per contract so far.

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  #92 (permalink)
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EURUSD continue to move lower, attached is a chart showing the next forecast price after touching 1.2944.
hint( very close to 1.29XX)

Edit: 120 range pip move is more than enough for a day trader, we may see 1.2910 tomorrow

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  #93 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for Taiwan stock index futures, market move down as shown in the chart.

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  #94 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is a chart for Taiwan stock index futures, market move down as shown in the chart.

attached is the latest chart for Taiwan stock index futures, reached target forecast price as shown in the previous post.

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  #95 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for EURUSD, sell order at 1.3034, stop at 1.3063. if price break 1.2945 (breaking of eq), will add sell orders and looking to take profit at 1.2910 with trailing stop.

Update: the sell at 1.3034 is in some nice profits, now move trailing stop to above 1.3034 or can hold to target price.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Attached is the chart of EURUSD, currently there is a rebound after a strong downturn and ES making a move up. if price does break above 1.3060, 1.3185 will be a good place to short.

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  #97 (permalink)
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attached is another chart showing the price forecast for EURUSD and giving further evidence for selling if price does go back to 1.3185 and it will be the trader's great privilege and advantage to do so if that happens.

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  #98 (permalink)
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EURUSD has been fluctuating for a while, attached is a new chart showing what is the next move.

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  #99 (permalink)
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attached is a day trade chart, sell order was around 1.3051 when that eq break, cover before 1.3014. In this day trade, not looking for a trending day so take profit was around 20-30 pips as price will still be paving the cave as shown in the previous chart.

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  #100 (permalink)
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attached is a chart of EURUSD, price has been ranging for a while with no clear direction. as the chart show. it is paving the area as shown in the dotted rectangle. the longer price range within this area, when price break down 1.3000, downtrend will resume.

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