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Price Forecasting with chaos
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Price Forecasting with chaos

  #61 (permalink)
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Moderator Note

Edited to remove rude quoted comment from another member

Mike



Well i guess my intentions for discussions and sharing of J-Chart have been deem to be insidious and the tactics of a vendor trying to push services/software.

It is true that it is difficult to teach an old dog any new tricks and i will leave it as such.

I thank all who has shown interests and questions and i hope i have answered the questions or comments to the best of my ability, if any one is interested, they can refer to the link posted by theSeeker, my uploaded pdf and my posts.

Any more posts from me if any will be strictly just a record of trades and charts as this is a trading journal.

Good luck to all.


Last edited by Big Mike; December 2nd, 2011 at 08:13 PM.
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  #62 (permalink)
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EURUSD Trade on 2 Dec 2011

attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1202-1.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1202-2.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; December 3rd, 2011 at 11:22 AM.
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  #63 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

Good job @ecmf. Steve Nissen became famous translating candle stick literature. Have you considered translating Chen' s J-Chart stuff?

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  #64 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

How do you know when the equilibrium has been completed ? Do you enter the trade on the break of a specific price level or on the pullback to it after the break out ?

I always do the latter to avoid false break outs which can quickly kill your account.


Last edited by TheSeeker; December 3rd, 2011 at 07:29 PM. Reason: typo
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  #65 (permalink)
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aligator View Post
Good job @ecmf. Steve Nissen became famous translating candle stick literature. Have you considered translating Chen' s J-Chart stuff?

Hello aligator,

many thanks for your continued interest in the method, i think translation is a good idea, but it will largely depend on the publisher and Mr John Chen.

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  #66 (permalink)
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TheSeeker View Post
How do you know when the equilibrium has been completed ? Do you enter the trade on the break of a specific price level or on the pullback to it after the break out ?

I always do the latter to avoid false break outs which can quickly kill your account.

Hello theSeeker,

many thanks for your interest and questions and i will try to answer them.

1) Equilibrium is completed when price has reached the vertices of the triangle and it is broken when price move beyond the top and bottom of the triangle.
From the chart 1, price has already pull back and it has broken EQ 13550 - 13524 - 13498 (dotted yellow triangle in 2nd chart) which is a EQ formed after the bigger EQ 13417 - 13484 - 13551 and it has broken BP13458. When price broke 13498, the bias is bearish, sell order was below 13458 as it is safer due to more resistance levels above it.

2) In my opinion, candlesticks do usually give false break outs making us lose money because it does not have predictive value. As long as eq is broken, trade will be done in the direction of the break. Sell 1 can be executed after breaking 13498 good for aggressive trader and it has 2 EQ and 2 BP as resistance levels, which is quite safe to sell. Sell 2 was done at 13456 which i did. We did not sell at Sell1 because there was a BP13484, for larger positions (60-100 lots) it is better to be safe than to be aggressive.

Hope this help.

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  #67 (permalink)
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Pre-Trade Plan ES 4 Dec 2011

attached is the pre-trade analysis for S&P500, as shown on the chart, bears are getting the upper hand to the downside.

If price move below 123500, we will sell.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-es1204a.gif  
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  #68 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is what happen on NFP on friday, The first chart was the pre-trade analysis and the 2nd chart is the actual trades taken (sold 13456 take profit 13371)

The equilibrium 13417 - 13484 - 13551 has completed and price has moved down.

The charts are drawn by combining several time intervals as needed to find the necessary equilibrium for my trading.

Price should be roaming within the yellow dotted rectangle drawn on the 2nd chart on Monday next week as long as there are no adverse events coming out for EURO. Price will range within the yellow rectangle and the plan will be to buy when price move near the bottom of rectangle and sell at the top of the rectangle.

Pre-market analysis: Sell at market open.

Actual decision will depend on how price moves when market open.

As highlighted from the previous post, EURUSD is indeed wandering within the yellow rectangle in chart 2, high was 1.3484.

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  #69 (permalink)
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EURUSD Trade on 6 Dec 2011

attached are 3 charts for EURUSD trade today.

The first chart was the pre-trade forecast and the 2nd chart was the real time trading, once the EQ 13404 - 13394 - 13384 was broken, trade was done in the direction of the break down. Take profit was at the 13332. Price then rebounded because of the BP 13330 of the bigger EQ as show in chart 3(also shown in the previous post). This trade showcase the completion of EQ (13546 - 13444 - 13332) and the support of a bigger EQ through its BP.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1206a.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1206b.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1202-4.gif  
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EURUSD Trade 2 on 6 Dec 2011



ecmf View Post
attached are 3 charts for EURUSD trade today.

The first chart was the pre-trade forecast and the 2nd chart was the real time trading, once the EQ 13404 - 13394 - 13384 was broken, trade was done in the direction of the break down. Take profit was at the 13332. Price then rebounded because of the BP 13330 of the bigger EQ as show in chart 3(also shown in the previous post). This trade showcase the completion of EQ (13546 - 13444 - 13332) and the support of a bigger EQ through its BP.

After a rally when favourable German factory news was released, a sell limit was trigger at 1.3410, attach is a chart which show heavy resistance at 1.3458, the chart also show a key difference in the construction of a J-Chart compared to a Market Profile chart, from the chart, all the equilibrium are formed with non fixed time intervals, depending on the need to find equilibrium for trading.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1206c.gif  
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