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Price Forecasting with chaos
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Price Forecasting with chaos

  #621 (permalink)
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Why people didn't understand the driving force behind price movement

Price Forecasting with Chaos=====Price Forecasting through Chaos theory

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  #622 (permalink)
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Such an interesting thread, in that it is so random.

Firstly, you are applying the idea of chaos theory wrong - chaos theory states that a small change in initial input can have large complex effects in a long term outcome, hence it renders long-term predictions impossible in general.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

You are saying that by applying chaos theory, you can predict long-term direction of the market with high accuracy, which is the opposite of what chaos theory implies, hence your initial idea is already invalid.

Secondly, your method can be explained quite easily. You are simply looking at congestion and a break out.

1. Price congests in a price area which produces a triangle. You are simply using a composite profile to combine congestion areas and break out trend areas.
2. As each unit traded has exactly 1 buyer and 1 seller, the higher the congestion, the larger the amount of committed buyers and sellers there are at that specific price area.
3. Once price moves in a direction (for example, up) and the profile builds higher, the shorts in this congestion area stop out, the longs scale up and buy momentum increases - hence the break out into a trend.
4. Everyone is using some sort of S/R target, such as a naked POC, or previous high, or whatever and I can bet you a lot of people are using a N POC as a price target, so no surprises there.

How you represent the congestion areas doesn't matter, you can use 30min TPO's, 100 tick, 200 tick, 300 tick, volume, or whatever floats your boat. You just need something to represent the congestion.

This is done to death by volume and market profile, there is nothing new here, save for some fancy (or not fancy) words. Call it what it is - this is just VP/MP which a lot of people use already.

Also the fact he has a $200 book on Amazon says something to me. If you can predict with almost 100% accuracy, you would be a billionaire, why go through the trouble and sell a book for $200? You can probably make as much money as all book sales combined with 1 trade.

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  #623 (permalink)
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Steve Jobs



PeakGrowth View Post
Such an interesting thread, in that it is so random.

Firstly, you are applying the idea of chaos theory wrong - chaos theory states that a small change in initial input can have large complex effects in a long term outcome, hence it renders long-term predictions impossible in general.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

You are saying that by applying chaos theory, you can predict long-term direction of the market with high accuracy, which is the opposite of what chaos theory implies, hence your initial idea is already invalid.

Secondly, your method can be explained quite easily. You are simply looking at congestion and a break out.

1. Price congests in a price area which produces a triangle. You are simply using a composite profile to combine congestion areas and break out trend areas.
2. As each unit traded has exactly 1 buyer and 1 seller, the higher the congestion, the larger the amount of committed buyers and sellers there are at that specific price area.
3. Once price moves in a direction (for example, up) and the profile builds higher, the shorts in this congestion area stop out, the longs scale up and buy momentum increases - hence the break out into a trend.
4. Everyone is using some sort of S/R target, such as a naked POC, or previous high, or whatever and I can bet you a lot of people are using a N POC as a price target, so no surprises there.

How you represent the congestion areas doesn't matter, you can use 30min TPO's, 100 tick, 200 tick, 300 tick, volume, or whatever floats your boat. You just need something to represent the congestion.

This is done to death by volume and market profile, there is nothing new here, save for some fancy (or not fancy) words. Call it what it is - this is just VP/MP which a lot of people use already.

Also the fact he has a $200 book on Amazon says something to me. If you can predict with almost 100% accuracy, you would be a billionaire, why go through the trouble and sell a book for $200? You can probably make as much money as all book sales combined with 1 trade.


Hi, Steve

Your Iphone may be good, however; your advice became nonsense, since kids learnt how to use google search.

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  #624 (permalink)
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Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos

Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos, shown in form of triangle when adapted to observer price activities

conventional fixed time interval need to be ingore

11378 is current high of EUR/USD, the boundary of equilibrium

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Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1009.gif  
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  #625 (permalink)
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John Chen View Post
Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos, shown in form of triangle when adapted to observer price activities

conventional fixed time interval need to be ingore

11378 is current high of EUR/USD, the boundary of equilibrium


I'd thought you said goodbye here... at post number 602.

bored again ?

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  #626 (permalink)
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EURUSD daily entry and target prediction

For day trade find the equilibrium, sell its break, plce stop to protect, then look for future bigger equilibrium used as the target exit

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Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1015.gif  
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  #627 (permalink)
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To see if the choas and equilibrium theory work


Itchymoku View Post
It's the circle of life for triangles, something I understand quite intimately.

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I'm trying to figure out a way to do this without creating custom composites, but more so with already existing daily composites or smaller. I think if you took out the whole custom aspect you might have something really special here that everyone could use.


Market will open on 4/6 let see those when those targets will be reached

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Price Forecasting with chaos-tx0403.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-tx0403-1.gif  
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  #628 (permalink)
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Crude

Hi John

Hope all is well

Would you be able to do one for Crude-CL and then people will see what you see as your method does work and those who say it doesn't, they dont understand it yet.

Thanking you

Sharmas

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  #629 (permalink)
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sharmas View Post
Hi John

Hope all is well

Would you be able to do one for Crude-CL and then people will see what you see as your method does work and those who say it doesn't, they dont understand it yet.

Thanking you

Sharmas



Sharmas

I don't trade crude due to time difference therefore no data source subscribed, however; if my programmer can implement the data then I can display CL charts from time to time

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  #630 (permalink)
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John Chen View Post
Market will open on 4/6 let see those when those targets will be reached

Short term and med-term target reach today

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