Price Forecasting with chaos - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Price Forecasting with chaos
Updated: Views / Replies:68,040 / 636
Created: by ecmf Attachments:503

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 503  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Price Forecasting with chaos

  #621 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received

Why people didn't understand the driving force behind price movement

Price Forecasting with Chaos=====Price Forecasting through Chaos theory

Reply With Quote
 
  #622 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
Broker/Data: IB, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: ES, SPI, ASX stocks, options
 
Posts: 399 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 169 given, 446 received

Such an interesting thread, in that it is so random.

Firstly, you are applying the idea of chaos theory wrong - chaos theory states that a small change in initial input can have large complex effects in a long term outcome, hence it renders long-term predictions impossible in general.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

You are saying that by applying chaos theory, you can predict long-term direction of the market with high accuracy, which is the opposite of what chaos theory implies, hence your initial idea is already invalid.

Secondly, your method can be explained quite easily. You are simply looking at congestion and a break out.

1. Price congests in a price area which produces a triangle. You are simply using a composite profile to combine congestion areas and break out trend areas.
2. As each unit traded has exactly 1 buyer and 1 seller, the higher the congestion, the larger the amount of committed buyers and sellers there are at that specific price area.
3. Once price moves in a direction (for example, up) and the profile builds higher, the shorts in this congestion area stop out, the longs scale up and buy momentum increases - hence the break out into a trend.
4. Everyone is using some sort of S/R target, such as a naked POC, or previous high, or whatever and I can bet you a lot of people are using a N POC as a price target, so no surprises there.

How you represent the congestion areas doesn't matter, you can use 30min TPO's, 100 tick, 200 tick, 300 tick, volume, or whatever floats your boat. You just need something to represent the congestion.

This is done to death by volume and market profile, there is nothing new here, save for some fancy (or not fancy) words. Call it what it is - this is just VP/MP which a lot of people use already.

Also the fact he has a $200 book on Amazon says something to me. If you can predict with almost 100% accuracy, you would be a billionaire, why go through the trouble and sell a book for $200? You can probably make as much money as all book sales combined with 1 trade.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to PeakGrowth for this post:
 
  #623 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received

Steve Jobs



PeakGrowth View Post
Such an interesting thread, in that it is so random.

Firstly, you are applying the idea of chaos theory wrong - chaos theory states that a small change in initial input can have large complex effects in a long term outcome, hence it renders long-term predictions impossible in general.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

You are saying that by applying chaos theory, you can predict long-term direction of the market with high accuracy, which is the opposite of what chaos theory implies, hence your initial idea is already invalid.

Secondly, your method can be explained quite easily. You are simply looking at congestion and a break out.

1. Price congests in a price area which produces a triangle. You are simply using a composite profile to combine congestion areas and break out trend areas.
2. As each unit traded has exactly 1 buyer and 1 seller, the higher the congestion, the larger the amount of committed buyers and sellers there are at that specific price area.
3. Once price moves in a direction (for example, up) and the profile builds higher, the shorts in this congestion area stop out, the longs scale up and buy momentum increases - hence the break out into a trend.
4. Everyone is using some sort of S/R target, such as a naked POC, or previous high, or whatever and I can bet you a lot of people are using a N POC as a price target, so no surprises there.

How you represent the congestion areas doesn't matter, you can use 30min TPO's, 100 tick, 200 tick, 300 tick, volume, or whatever floats your boat. You just need something to represent the congestion.

This is done to death by volume and market profile, there is nothing new here, save for some fancy (or not fancy) words. Call it what it is - this is just VP/MP which a lot of people use already.

Also the fact he has a $200 book on Amazon says something to me. If you can predict with almost 100% accuracy, you would be a billionaire, why go through the trouble and sell a book for $200? You can probably make as much money as all book sales combined with 1 trade.


Hi, Steve

Your Iphone may be good, however; your advice became nonsense, since kids learnt how to use google search.

Reply With Quote
 
  #624 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received

Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos

Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos, shown in form of triangle when adapted to observer price activities

conventional fixed time interval need to be ingore

11378 is current high of EUR/USD, the boundary of equilibrium

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1009.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #625 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Malaysia kuala lumpur
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: metatrader
Favorite Futures: forex
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 1 received


John Chen View Post
Equilibrium is the essential part of Chaos, shown in form of triangle when adapted to observer price activities

conventional fixed time interval need to be ingore

11378 is current high of EUR/USD, the boundary of equilibrium


I'd thought you said goodbye here... at post number 602.

bored again ?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to camel for this post:
 
  #626 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received

EURUSD daily entry and target prediction

For day trade find the equilibrium, sell its break, plce stop to protect, then look for future bigger equilibrium used as the target exit

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1015.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #627 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received

To see if the choas and equilibrium theory work


Itchymoku View Post
It's the circle of life for triangles, something I understand quite intimately.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I'm trying to figure out a way to do this without creating custom composites, but more so with already existing daily composites or smaller. I think if you took out the whole custom aspect you might have something really special here that everyone could use.


Market will open on 4/6 let see those when those targets will be reached

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-tx0403.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-tx0403-1.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #628 (permalink)
Elite Member
Auckland
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: CL and ES
 
Posts: 710 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 3,720 given, 661 received

Crude

Hi John

Hope all is well

Would you be able to do one for Crude-CL and then people will see what you see as your method does work and those who say it doesn't, they dont understand it yet.

Thanking you

Sharmas

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to sharmas for this post:
 
  #629 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received


sharmas View Post
Hi John

Hope all is well

Would you be able to do one for Crude-CL and then people will see what you see as your method does work and those who say it doesn't, they dont understand it yet.

Thanking you

Sharmas



Sharmas

I don't trade crude due to time difference therefore no data source subscribed, however; if my programmer can implement the data then I can display CL charts from time to time

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to John Chen for this post:
 
  #630 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Taipei,Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: INDEX FUTURES,FOREX
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received



John Chen View Post
Market will open on 4/6 let see those when those targets will be reached

Short term and med-term target reach today

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Price Forecasting with chaos

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Polynomial Pattern Recognition and Forecasting Indicator (www.mooretechllc.com) RodS Trading Reviews and Vendors 14 October 14th, 2012 10:09 AM
Euro chaos: Britain prepares for worst kbit News and Current Events 0 November 4th, 2011 02:04 PM
Libyan Chaos Stirs Global Panic Over Oil Supplies Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 February 27th, 2011 10:20 AM
Your thoughts? America on the Edge of Chaos studio88 News and Current Events 9 August 27th, 2010 10:09 AM
Chaos sefstrat The Elite Circle 8 October 7th, 2009 09:31 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:01 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.209.109