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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

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  #401 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
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John Chen View Post
Well done! This shows you are a advance trader for sure

However during last 30 years trading carrer I have seen a lot of big firms went backrupt over night, therefore I only prefer day trading which allows me sleeping peacefully at night

long term analysis is a frame wok for day trade reference only

John,

Your 'sleeping hours' are Taipei time - 12 hours ahead of New York EST. It is a 11:45 pm there as I write.

By the way, 你是在哪裡找到 J-Charts?

Ken

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  #402 (permalink)
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long term analysis is a frame wok for day trade reference only

Also attached chart is a example of the application of FIB in J-Chart

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  #403 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post
John,

Your 'sleeping hours' are Taipei time - 12 hours ahead of New York EST. It is a 11:45 pm there as I write.

By the way, 你是在哪裡找到 J-Charts?

Ken

I developed myself

if you are interested you can borrow my book from amazon.com

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  #404 (permalink)
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The attachment is a J-Chart shows longer view of gold

There are two sections of unfilled caves from uncompleted EQ,

If the top holds they will be filled eventually

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  #405 (permalink)
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AS QUOTE PREVIOUSLY:

The attachment is a J-Chart shows longer view of gold

There are two sections of unfilled caves from uncompleted EQ,

If the top holds they will be filled eventually



So far the low is close to the edge of upper yellow block

1455 seems not easy to break through it will spend sometime to consolidate first

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  #406 (permalink)
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AS QUOTE PREVIOUSLY:

The attachment is a J-Chart shows longer view of gold

There are two sections of unfilled caves from uncompleted EQ,

If the top holds they will be filled eventually



Patient is a vrtue and required

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  #407 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
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John --

Are your J-Charts showing the triangle formations based on price over time or simply drawing triangles based on price? Does volume play a role in your chart's formation?

Ken - formerly of Studio Classroom fame in Taiwan



John Chen View Post
AS QUOTE PREVIOUSLY:

The attachment is a J-Chart shows longer view of gold

There are two sections of unfilled caves from uncompleted EQ,

If the top holds they will be filled eventually



So far the low is close to the edge of upper yellow block

1455 seems not easy to break through it will spend sometime to consolidate first


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  #408 (permalink)
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COTtrader;326745]John --

Are your J-Charts showing the triangle formations based on price over time or simply drawing triangles based on price? Does volume play a role in your chart's formation?

Ken - formerly of Studio Classroom fame in Taiwan

Ken

1) Time especially fixed interval is a flaw to observe chaotic price movement

2) no volume is taken into consideration

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  #409 (permalink)
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Therefore, you are saying the J-Charts are based only on price. Each bar is 5 ticks - correct?

Ken


John Chen View Post
COTtrader;326745]John --

Are your J-Charts showing the triangle formations based on price over time or simply drawing triangles based on price? Does volume play a role in your chart's formation?

Ken - formerly of Studio Classroom fame in Taiwan

Ken

1) Time especially fixed interval is a flaw to observe chaotic price movement

2) no volume is taken into consideration


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  #410 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post
Therefore, you are saying the J-Charts are based only on price. Each bar is 5 ticks - correct?

Ken

Exactly

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  #411 (permalink)
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1) Attached today's gold chart is not displayed in time, however trader can see clearly the trend and profitable entry

2) Volume can be deceptive

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  #412 (permalink)
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AS QUOTEon 5/3:

The attachment is a J-Chart shows longer view of gold

There are two sections of unfilled caves from uncompleted EQ,

If the top holds they will be filled eventually


It took a week to reach target

It would be good profit return for any hedge fund

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  #413 (permalink)
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A perfect EQ was formed

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  #414 (permalink)
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market price is near the bottom of the perfect EQ

If is breaks, 1404.5 will be next target

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  #415 (permalink)
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market price try push through the bottom of the perfect EQ, first attempt fail however

If is breaks, 1404.5 shall be next target for sure

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  #416 (permalink)
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Market price push through 1419.6 the bottom of the perfect EQ,

As predicted Future gold reach 1404.6 however London gold only reach 1406

Chart attached reveals the resonance effect may set in

which means a rebound movement to fill the cave is expected

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  #417 (permalink)
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EURUSD reached 12841 as expected and rebounded



However the EQ lower boundry penetrated further lower price will be anticipated

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  #418 (permalink)
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After view the J-Chart it shows EURUSD price shall zigzag the lower part of EQ first

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  #419 (permalink)
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A perfect EQ become heavy resistance

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  #420 (permalink)
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Apply equilibrium-->chaos--->equilibrium concept and take adavantage of cave paving

Day trade can be fairly profitable

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  #421 (permalink)
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Two significant equilibriums

last few days gold price runs up and down like the rollercoaster

however it achieved a perfect equilibrium

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  #422 (permalink)
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EQUILIBRIUM provide resistance and support better than conventional indictors

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  #423 (permalink)
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Gold continues its zigzaging in between two balance points

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  #424 (permalink)
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Eur approaching target and facing importanceresistance

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  #425 (permalink)
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the 13230--13308--13386 EQ has been completed from 6/11 till early today accompany with another EQ 13328--13358--13388 today it signal possible market exhaustion

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  #426 (permalink)
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Gold took a month time to crack through previous low 1338 early today and plunge

a equilibrium shall be reached as chart shown

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  #427 (permalink)
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chart of 4/12 and 6/16 we can assume 974-980 will be the long term target

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  #428 (permalink)
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eurusd was foreseen should zigzag between 13080--12880

as chart shown selling once the EQ breaks will be profitable for sure

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  #429 (permalink)
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J chart shows good day trade selling oppertunity

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  #430 (permalink)
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J chart of gold after combination offers better view

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  #431 (permalink)
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important EQ

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  #432 (permalink)
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The EQ act as resistance and it offers a profitable day trade oppertunity

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  #433 (permalink)
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The big EQ act as resistance and we can use smaller EQ to do the day trade

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how to use smaller EQ doing the day trade

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  #435 (permalink)
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Hey
hope you are doing well.
just out of curiosity....?!
How did you manage to get jchart application working after all these years ?

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arjang View Post
Hey
hope you are doing well.
just out of curiosity....?!
How did you manage to get jchart application working after all these years ?


money, money and money

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  #437 (permalink)
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awesome
could you please post a eur usd in 15 or 30 mins interval with triangles ?
and you analysis .

thanks

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arjang View Post
awesome
could you please post a eur usd in 15 or 30 mins interval with triangles ?
and you analysis .

thanks


Fixed interval is not correct idea to find the triangles

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seems interesting, but I am still trying to understand how exactly to know when should start to build a new triangle ? Thanks

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  #440 (permalink)
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Fixed interval is not correct idea to find the triangles


okay.
would you draw a triangle for eurusd on "NOT-FIXED" time please ?
or whatever / whenever triangle should be drawn ...

because im seeing you have SMALL triangle, and big one as well. and I thought time is one of the factor. probably a main one...

so if equilibrium is the key here ( as you were saying ) , why do you have small and big triangles then ?

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  #441 (permalink)
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arjang View Post
okay.
would you draw a triangle for eurusd on "NOT-FIXED" time please ?
or whatever / whenever triangle should be drawn ...

because im seeing you have SMALL triangle, and big one as well. and I thought time is one of the factor. probably a main one...

so if equilibrium is the key here ( as you were saying ) , why do you have small and big triangles then ?


A book of J-Chart has been published, you can brrow it through Amazon Kindle

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  #442 (permalink)
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so do you have any statement to share after all these years ?

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arjang View Post
so do you have any statement to share after all these years ?

Are you offering me a job

I am too old to take any

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  #444 (permalink)
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lol
not really I know you and your software... I used to have it long time ago.
just wondering how did it go for you so far ...


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lol
not really I know you and your software... I used to have it long time ago.
just wondering how did it go for you so far ...


Would You like to watch how we use J to day trade the emerging market?

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absolutely
is it like conference-screen-sharing thing ?!?!

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arjang View Post
absolutely
is it like conference-screen-sharing thing ?!?!

it is not based on fixed time interval

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  #448 (permalink)
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neat !
why didn't you take the sell position made on the second triangle from left side?!?!

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arjang View Post
neat !
why didn't you take the sell position made on the second triangle from left side?!?!

WE TRADE IN AND OUT , RANGE TODAY IS 55 POINTS WE GAIN 35 THROUGH 6 THRADES


TRADE STARTS FROM YELLOW LINE

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  #450 (permalink)
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MARKET PUSH THROUGH EQ OF YESTERDAY IT IS A GOOD BUY

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i dont have those cfd's or index's on my platform.
would you mind to do some analysis on currencies ?!

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  #452 (permalink)
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resonance effect offer good sell 2229---2249---2269, 2251---2260---2269

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arjang View Post
i dont have those cfd's or index's on my platform.
would you mind to do some analysis on currencies ?!


Trade something with clear views, currency is not worth to trade now

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John Chen View Post
resonance effect offer good sell 2229---2249---2269, 2251---2260---2269


TRADE VERIFIED

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  #455 (permalink)
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whats the difference between complete triangle ?! and other ?
I can see some have red characters inside the triangle, and some not...

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whats the difference between complete triangle ?! and other ?
I can see some have red characters inside the triangle, and some not...

READ THE BOOK PLS

Market started slow until the EQ breaks and rush to the target

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John Chen View Post
READ THE BOOK PLS

Market started slow until the EQ breaks and rush to the target


1st EQ broken SECOND EQ target reached

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1st EQ broken SECOND EQ target reached

Market rebound to the edge of reverse EQ offers selling oppertunity

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A perfect EQ was formed late afternoon yesterday

2 buy and 2 sell were done

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A perfect EQ was formed late afternoon yesterday

2 buy and 2 sell were done


TARGET REACHED

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Look for formation of EQ can make day trade fun

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In day trade use formation of EQ as signal of entry

However the big EQ can act as resistance

Attached chart shows market gap up open but the EQ acts as the ceiling

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1) pattern formed 2) stop (risk control) 3) target forecast

Attached is day trade for IF index futures

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Im guessing your last position went quite hmmmm, awesome?! and assuming you are still in Monaco to burn the money on blackjack table with 22 years old gorgeous from ... , in your right arm and hmmmmm ?! perhaps holding a margarita in your left hand ?! and hmmmmm?! possibly opening her bikini with your teeth? RIGHT??

did it hmmmmmm "really" happen ??

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Im guessing your last position went quite hmmmm, awesome?! and assuming you are still in Monaco to burn the money on blackjack table with 22 years old gorgeous from ... , in your right arm and hmmmmm ?! perhaps holding a margarita in your left hand ?! and hmmmmm?! possibly opening her bikini with your teeth? RIGHT??

did it hmmmmmm "really" happen ??

Lay off buddy, you know this kind of harassment will not go far on @Big Mike's. Why don't you buy John's system then write a review.

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What seems to be the issue here.
Not that i want to get involved but John seems to be a very nice guy.

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so what ? we cant have a joke or sarcasm here ?
he has a tongue anyway ! he can speak himself !

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so what ? we cant have a joke or sarcasm here ?
he has a tongue anyway ! he can speak himself !

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Look for formation of EQ is the key for a successful day trade

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another good example of using EQ in day trading

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The EQ OF Gold can be used for range trading

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After combination, the visibility of EQ gets much clearer

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After combination, the visibility of EQ gets much clearer

The new incoming BP can offer a clue for future price target

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After combination, the visibility of EQ gets much clearer

The new incoming BP can offer a clue for future price target

Verification of J-Chart's equilibrium theory

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Verification of J-Chart's equilibrium theory

A trade which gave away $5000 in no time was missed


Reason: Qverlook the resonance effect which was in place

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ANOTHER EQ HAS BEEN OBSERVERED AND PROFITABLE TRADE CAN BE IMPLEMENTED

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Price consolidation shall be in process

PRICE DID GO DOWN AND HELD BY BP 131350

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Day trade the index futures and exit with price forecasting

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The last EQ 2483.8---2475---2466.2 of 9/23 offers clear trend for today

It has been a very profitable day trade

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Price consolidation is in process

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consolidation offer daily scalping oppertunity

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Most people agree price fluctuation is random and chaotic, however in reality it consists of equilibrium and chaos

Watching market through linear tools such as MA RSI KD can be very painful or even confused

Chart attached is an example of Chinese stock index futures

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Gold has potenital to edge lower

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Gold has potenital to edge lower


It took a week

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It forms a interesting perfect equilibrium

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1)On 4/13 J-Chart foresee 1432 would be reached while price was 1526

2)Around end of June Gold dive down to 1180 then reound however the high only reached 1433 almost the same price of previous EQ low 1796---1614---1432

3) There is cave below 1284 need to be filled

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It takes 8 days to create an equilibrium

Today's move also create a EQ which was unfinished from 11/28

1121.6 looks like will be the target since first EQ did fall through

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Wait for Selling oppertunity once the EQ is formaed

Exit when another EQ is in sight

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Hi all,

New poster here. Spectacular forum.

Found this thread while researching the volume profile methodology.

This thread is very interesting - nonetheless, the method is not explained, and the thread reads like self promotion for selling books and software on the make. Nothing wrong in that, but I wanted to mention it as I found odd that at the very beginning Big Mike asks for confirmation that there are no products nor services for sale - and it seems there are (Chen: "if you are interested you can borrow my book from amazon.com").

Whatever, to each his own. I learned from this thread and am very thankful to ecmf/Chen for that. Nonetheless, I am filled with unanswered questions and criticism regarding this method.

This method's practical key is triangle formation. So then it is paramount to have a method for constructing triangles. That is the key question.

Quoting Loxics:

loxics View Post
How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice? Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

The answer was: "A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP, The software will combine ticks with user-defined interval and the user can then find his required equilibrium. The size of a triangle required is determined by the objectives of a user and his trading time frame. Longer trading time frame will mean a bigger eq." And another explanation by ecmf: "the triangles are only drawn once we have identified our equilibrium, for a triangle to be drawn we need a point of origin ... we need to find equilibrium by looking at the display of raw prices using non-fixed time intervals."

Summing up
1) Objective: forecasting price direction
2) Tool: triangle formation (in simplified terms)
3) How 1: A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP.
4) How 2: It is not based on fixed time interval - but rather determined by trading objectives and time frame (aka whatever the trader wants it to be)
5) Circularity: a triangle is formed with the high/low/BP, the high/low/BP are set when the trader decides to form the triangle.

=> Conclusion: there are countless triangles and countless support/resistance levels, just as traditional technical analysis can generate countless support/resistance levels. It all depends on the trader's artistic ability to end one interval and start another.

Am I missing something?

Three other things:

a) This method is based on Tick data (# of trades), as compared to Volume data used by the Market Profile Indicator. ecmf/Chen highlight the importance of this, and state that Tick data is better for this analysis - but they do not explain why. Would you care to elaborate why? I do not see the significance in using Tick data vs using Volume data. In fact, it could be argued that using Volume is more relevant: eg., it is more important to know the total volume in stops that would be triggered at a certain price level, than to know the number of traders positioned at that price level.

b) There is no "real" tick information in FX - in FX tick data is a measure of quote changes, and not # of trades (nor real volume). So how is this method relevant to FX? Even if it were relevant, the interpretation for FX and futures should be different. Nonetheless here the method is applied indistinguishably to both.

c) Some would argue that FX volume can be accurately estimated from FX tick volume - even though I doubt the accuracy of the estimate, assuming the estimate to be reliable, that would only provide a glimpse into retail volume, while most volume is driven by Hedge Funds, Real Money, Interbank trading and Large Corps (specially HFs, given that they like to trade in size to move the market), and these are not reflected in retail volume. This of course is a source of heated debate, and I would rather keep it out of this thread - but it is worth mentioning.

Thanks

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powerka View Post
Hi all,

New poster here. Spectacular forum.

Found this thread while researching the volume profile methodology.

This thread is very interesting - nonetheless, the method is not explained, and the thread reads like self promotion for selling books and software on the make. Nothing wrong in that, but I wanted to mention it as I found odd that at the very beginning Big Mike asks for confirmation that there are no products nor services for sale - and it seems there are (Chen: "if you are interested you can borrow my book from amazon.com").

Whatever, to each his own. I learned from this thread and am very thankful to ecmf/Chen for that. Nonetheless, I am filled with unanswered questions and criticism regarding this method.

This method's practical key is triangle formation. So then it is paramount to have a method for constructing triangles. That is the key question.

Quoting Loxics:


The answer was: "A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP, The software will combine ticks with user-defined interval and the user can then find his required equilibrium. The size of a triangle required is determined by the objectives of a user and his trading time frame. Longer trading time frame will mean a bigger eq." And another explanation by ecmf: "the triangles are only drawn once we have identified our equilibrium, for a triangle to be drawn we need a point of origin ... we need to find equilibrium by looking at the display of raw prices using non-fixed time intervals."

Summing up
1) Objective: forecasting price direction
2) Tool: triangle formation (in simplified terms)
3) How 1: A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP.
4) How 2: It is not based on fixed time interval - but rather determined by trading objectives and time frame (aka whatever the trader wants it to be)
5) Circularity: a triangle is formed with the high/low/BP, the high/low/BP are set when the trader decides to form the triangle.

=> Conclusion: there are countless triangles and countless support/resistance levels, just as traditional technical analysis can generate countless support/resistance levels. It all depends on the trader's artistic ability to end one interval and start another.

Am I missing something?

Three other things:

a) This method is based on Tick data (# of trades), as compared to Volume data used by the Market Profile Indicator. ecmf/Chen highlight the importance of this, and state that Tick data is better for this analysis - but they do not explain why. Would you care to elaborate why? I do not see the significance in using Tick data vs using Volume data. In fact, it could be argued that using Volume is more relevant: eg., it is more important to know the total volume in stops that would be triggered at a certain price level, than to know the number of traders positioned at that price level.

b) There is no "real" tick information in FX - in FX tick data is a measure of quote changes, and not # of trades (nor real volume). So how is this method relevant to FX? Even if it were relevant, the interpretation for FX and futures should be different. Nonetheless here the method is applied indistinguishably to both.

c) Some would argue that FX volume can be accurately estimated from FX tick volume - even though I doubt the accuracy of the estimate, assuming the estimate to be reliable, that would only provide a glimpse into retail volume, while most volume is driven by Hedge Funds, Real Money, Interbank trading and Large Corps (specially HFs, given that they like to trade in size to move the market), and these are not reflected in retail volume. This of course is a source of heated debate, and I would rather keep it out of this thread - but it is worth mentioning.

Thanks


Look for the size of perfect equilibrium which suit you such as the lost you are willing to take

attached are the sample charts (trading done on last Friday) which show the processes of find the day trade equilibrium

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Look for the size of perfect equilibrium which suit you such as the lost you are willing to take

attached are the sample charts (trading done on last Friday) which show the processes of find the day trade equilibrium

Market is plunging as predicted once 2256 penetrated and the equilibrium breatched

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I haven't read this entire journal but I have read about 1/3rd of it.

It seems like a lot of what you guys are doing is forecasting the direction of the market on periods where a triangular distribution rests inside another triangular distribution and based upon where the subsequent triangle rests determines the direction of where the next distribution will go.

I hope that makes sense even though the terminology I'm using probably isn't correct but I hope you get the general gist.

Tia

R.I.P. Joseph Bach (Itchymoku), 1987-2018.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Itchymoku View Post
I haven't read this entire journal but I have read about 1/3rd of it.

It seems like a lot of what you guys are doing is forecasting the direction of the market on periods where a triangular distribution rests inside another triangular distribution and based upon where the subsequent triangle rests determines the direction of where the next distribution will go.

I hope that makes sense even though the terminology I'm using probably isn't correct but I hope you get the general gist.

Tia


Those triangular formations is an application of universe law ie balance---chaos---balance--chaos

It is exactly the same way our global weather condition is undergoing ----chaos

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John Chen View Post
Those triangular formations is an application of universe law ie balance---chaos---balance--chaos

It is exactly the same way our global weather condition is undergoing ----chaos


Another tip of equilibrium completed

Market dropped all the way down to 2146 from 2256

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Cash Gold day trade entry and exit

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Market data lost due to power outage however equilinriums appear after power restored

Price movement is still predictable

In the word you can day trade without any previous historical charts

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Clear view of entry and target of today's market

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  #499 (permalink)
Taipei,Taiwan
 
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
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Let's see how long it takes after the EQ breaks upward

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  #500 (permalink)
Taipei,Taiwan
 
 
Posts: 324 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 4 given, 331 received


John Chen View Post
Let's see how long it takes after the EQ breaks upward

The cave paving (blue) was expected 138.5 area would be a good buy at least for day trade

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