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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

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  #41 (permalink)
 sharky 
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also i would not really call it forcasting as many have said it is impossible,if you know what the balance point of the market is and understand what price does most of the time then it is more than likely to do what it is known to do all over again but not a for sure,trading is trading sometimes you make the right edgucated guess and sometimes you dont...sharky

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  #42 (permalink)
ecmf
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sharky View Post
also i would not really call it forcasting as many have said it is impossible,if you know what the balance point of the market is and understand what price does most of the time then it is more than likely to do what it is known to do all over again but not a for sure,trading is trading sometimes you make the right edgucated guess and sometimes you dont...sharky

Hello Sharky,

many thanks for your replies. However i do not agree that forecasting is not possible, i have posted some charts e.g the first post on forecasting price. I do acknowledged that price is random but there is order within this chaos of price movement. I have attached a document in post 32 which you can take a look. The method give us a logical way to discern the "invisible hand of the market" allowing us to forecast price movement.

Hope this is helpful.

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  #43 (permalink)
 sharky 
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now your sounding like a brainwashed parrot,we get the point that you beleive that you found the holy grail,but im telling you that your wrong.price forcasting is not possible 100% of the time so the method although it might be a sound method is not really a forcasting method that is any better than what i have already explained also.you cant forcast what will happen because you do not personally control what goes on in the world.that is what makes me a profitable scalper because i figured out a long time ago that just because im in a good overnight trade with a perfect entry that does not stop someone in nigeria or ubeckistan from blowing up a pipeline and throwing the price of oil into haywire for a few days.you dont decide when things get blown up or when a earthquake hits,you dont decide when a hurricane or a war starts so how can you say what is going to happen in 2 hrs from now?,you cant you can only say what is likely to happen because everything says that this is the likely direction the market should move in,so once again i would like to say that forcasting is not really possible...sharky

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  #44 (permalink)
ecmf
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sharky View Post
now your sounding like a brainwashed parrot,we get the point that you beleive that you found the holy grail,but im telling you that your wrong.price forcasting is not possible 100% of the time so the method although it might be a sound method is not really a forcasting method that is any better than what i have already explained also.you cant forcast what will happen because you do not personally control what goes on in the world.that is what makes me a profitable scalper because i figured out a long time ago that just because im in a good overnight trade with a perfect entry that does not stop someone in nigeria or ubeckistan from blowing up a pipeline and throwing the price of oil into haywire for a few days.you dont decide when things get blown up or when a earthquake hits,you dont decide when a hurricane or a war starts so how can you say what is going to happen in 2 hrs from now?,you cant you can only say what is likely to happen because everything says that this is the likely direction the market should move in,so once again i would like to say that forcasting is not really possible...sharky

hello sharky,

We do not know each other but i can predict what going happen to you and me.
we don't know each others education background, how wealthy we are etc, But i do know one thing, both of us will eventually die. Please do not be offended. Any event or system that can be observed will have an equilibrium status, even price. However this equilibrium is not eternal, it will break down and becomes chaos. This endless cycle between chaos and equilibrium can be constantly monitor through a process.

For example, once a doctor diagnosed that a patient has end stage cancer, he is able to give an approximate life span for the patient before the body equilibrium of the patient collapse (patient dies). Thus it is the same for price forecast, we are looking for the equilibrium and its destruction, this is also the basis of chaos theory.
Chaos and equilibrium are intertwined, price is random and chaotic but by looking for the equilibrium within the chaos, we will be able to forecast price.

Hope this helps.

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  #45 (permalink)
 sharky 
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however the patient might still survive thru some miraculas intervention,so to say he is going to die for sure is a best educated guess not a for sure thing.but i concede that you can forcast with some effectiveness several different ways.but.... this is bmt we dont ooooh and aww very easy we are here to teach and learn not look at photos of what might be,i look foward to reading you thread more if you decide to teach something,have a nice Christmas and a good new year...sharky

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  #46 (permalink)
 jta3 
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Is there a indicator to download and test on. Or is it something you have pay for.?

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  #47 (permalink)
ecmf
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sharky View Post
however the patient might still survive thru some miraculas intervention,so to say he is going to die for sure is a best educated guess not a for sure thing.but i concede that you can forcast with some effectiveness several different ways.but.... this is bmt we dont ooooh and aww very easy we are here to teach and learn not look at photos of what might be,i look foward to reading you thread more if you decide to teach something,have a nice Christmas and a good new year...sharky

Hello Sharky,

many thanks for your interests and comments.

I am not teaching but rather sharing the theory of J-Chart and i welcome discussions from all of you so that we can learn from each other.

The theory of J-Chart was found by Mr John Chen after a disastrous trading experience and its has its roots in I-Ching as well as chaos theory. Mr John Chen forward test the theory for more than a decade to prove his findings as he does not believe that back testing is robust and sufficient to prove the validity of the theory. He feels that back-testing is akin to the fairy tale Cinderella. He has unselfishly shared the theory with others and i am just sharing what little i have learned from him, more details can be found in the pdf which i have uploaded in post 32.

Hope this helps.

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  #48 (permalink)
ecmf
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jta3 View Post
Is there a indicator to download and test on. Or is it something you have pay for.?

Hello Jta3,

As i have replied to Big Mike, there is no selling of software or services. I am just sharing the theory of J-Chart.

Once you understand the theory, you can implement it in any ways or means. You can even use Excel.

This is a rough sketch of how J-chart is drawn:

1) Use tick data
2) Record each price transaction, each transaction we mark it with a stroke, after 5 transactions we use the Chinese character "正
3) We should have the freedom to freely combine the prices in any time intervals based on the needs because chaos and equilibrium are intertwined. Equilibrium can emerged at any time intervals, e.g. 1.1 days, 2.1 hrs etc.
4) An equilibrium is usually found in a triangle and its apex will be a balance point and the other point of origin will be a high/low/another balance point and an image point. The image point is the forecast price.

You can refer to the pdf in post 32 for more details

Hope this helps.

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  #49 (permalink)
ecmf
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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hello all,

attached is a day trade chart for TXCC which is Taiwan Stock Index future. at of this time, forecast price 7145 has reached. The short entry was entered at 7200 when price move below the balance point 7198.
This is one of the way how J-Chart can be used to forecast the target price to take profit and how to enter into a trade.

Hope this helps.

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  #50 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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with reference to my last post on TXCC,

if price can't get above 7174 it will move down to 7106 this is provided price manage to break 7143 which is the low so far.

Hope this helps.

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