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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

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  #21 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received


GoldStandard View Post
Thanks for sharing your way of looking at the market.

If I understand you correctly the histogram you're using is basicly a TPO (Time Price Opportunity) profile that shows how much time price spent at a given price rather than how much volume traded there. Is that right?

How do you decide when the trend has changed? Would you perhaps be willing to post some charts about your method from between November 8 and November 15 or so, when there were large shifts in the prevailing trend?

Hello GoldStandard,

many thanks for your interest and your questions.

I will try to answer them.

The chart is not a TPO profile. Time is meaningless without events and we use price as our events. The method used to create the chart is time independent and does not use volume at all, only price (tick data).
It does not assume a bell-curve distribution of price (does not depend on statistics) and a tendency to revert to the point of control. The forecasting method allows us to anticipate further price movement and makes forecast based on past price movement activity.

To look at the trend we look at the movement of BP and our equilibrium. Attached is the chart for Taiwan index futures for today which would highlight what i was saying. The green circle give us the reversal signal.

Price movement is an endless cycle between equilibrium and chaos. The method allow us when we are trading to see when equilibrium is achieved and when it is destroyed

Hope this helps.

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  #22 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is the price forecast for TXCC.TW which is the Taiwan Stock Index futures. At the time of this posting, price has already reached. Sorry for this delay and i hope to post before the event happens.

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  #23 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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Ok, please don't take this as 'attacking you', but confused...

1. Why do you want to get people interested in this method? For what benefit or outcome? Why do you personally wish this? I see many people start journals all for someone else than themselves? It is funny how I don't write in my journal at home for anyone else, maybe I should... haha...

2. This to me seems like MP TPO's using a trendline 100% ext. Nothing magical here to me, but a different way to look at the market. Why not explain what it is, and help others learn instead of being reclusive?

I guess I don't get the point of why you present it this way, and I guess you are letting suspense build up until we just can't take it anymore? haha.. I am sure you have your reasons, but doesn't make sense from a straight shooter.

I appreciate you posting your different view on the markets as we all learn.

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  #24 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is the price forecast for EURUSD, this is a slightly longer term forecast and not a day trade forecast.
From the picture, you can see heavy resistance for EURUSD especially 1.3521 area. Also we can see an equilibrium at 13858- 13521- 13191, 13421 was broken, so price is moving down and eventually it will move to 13191 completing the equilibrium.

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  #25 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received


bluemele View Post
Ok, please don't take this as 'attacking you', but confused...

1. Why do you want to get people interested in this method? For what benefit or outcome? Why do you personally wish this? I see many people start journals all for someone else than themselves? It is funny how I don't write in my journal at home for anyone else, maybe I should... haha...

2. This to me seems like MP TPO's using a trendline 100% ext. Nothing magical here to me, but a different way to look at the market. Why not explain what it is, and help others learn instead of being reclusive?

I guess I don't get the point of why you present it this way, and I guess you are letting suspense build up until we just can't take it anymore? haha.. I am sure you have your reasons, but doesn't make sense from a straight shooter.

I appreciate you posting your different view on the markets as we all learn.

Hello bluemele,

no offense at all. it is good to learn from each other. I will try to answer your questions.

1) I have learn this concept from Mr. Chen who happen to live in Hawaii over 20 years and he had a dream : To be able to forecast price. Price forecast was believed to be impossible by many people since the last century. Through his theory, I believe his dream may have come true. i also like to share with people who are interested in this new way to view price movements.

2) I can assure you that it is not like MP TPO's. Like i explain earlier, the method used is time independent and it is based on the endless cycle of building and destoying equilibrium. Based on the non fixed time interval,the method integrates equilibrium concept (from chaos theory) and the principle of "symmetry of events" to allow us to forecast price. I do not think MP is able to do price forecast.

Thank you for your interest.

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  #26 (permalink)
 jta3 
Copenhagen, Denmark
 
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It's a little complex to se and test your ideer. I se alot of symmetry ind markedet. W. D. Gann have many tools for that. "Square of nine"

What timeframe can you make prediction on. and how do you test this.?

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  #27 (permalink)
 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
 
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ecmf View Post
Hello bluemele,

no offense at all. it is good to learn from each other. I will try to answer your questions.

1) I have learn this concept from Mr. Chen who happen to live in Hawaii over 20 years and he had a dream : To be able to forecast price. Price forecast was believed to be impossible by many people since the last century. Through his theory, I believe his dream may have come true. i also like to share with people who are interested in this new way to view price movements.

2) I can assure you that it is not like MP TPO's. Like i explain earlier, the method used is time independent and it is based on the endless cycle of building and destoying equilibrium. Based on the non fixed time interval,the method integrates equilibrium concept (from chaos theory) and the principle of "symmetry of events" to allow us to forecast price. I do not think MP is able to do price forecast.

Thank you for your interest.

Ok, @ecmf why not cut the chase and give up your indicator and tell @bluemele and others how they can duplicate your method. No disrespect but so far nothing is really explained and nothing is learned.

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  #28 (permalink)
ecmf
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

attached is the chart for USDCHF, it show the clear movement of price and how to take advantage of it.

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  #29 (permalink)
 jta3 
Copenhagen, Denmark
 
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Is this a conclusion of what there have happened.?

Can you put something for the future. next 2 hours or something like that.?

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  #30 (permalink)
 TheSeeker 
Germany
 
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Further info on the method:

This article and more available at Investopedia.com

Software is called J-Chart, just google it.


I've come across this method over 10 years ago, to me there are lots of similarities with Market Profile. Using ticks vs. TPOs doesn't make a great difference to me.

Market forms an equilibrium /balance and breaks out of that equilibrium at some point in time, makes a large move to then balance again and so forth, nothing new here.

Maybe the concept of establishing price targets shown by the triangles is something unique. Don't know how well it works but I'm a curious cat so I'll follow this journal.

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