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Price Forecasting with chaos


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Price Forecasting with chaos

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  #101 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is a chart for EURUSD, as shown on the chart, price has encountered resistance at 1.3063 because
1) balance point
2) tip of eq
3) previous high

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  #102 (permalink)
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from the chart, a sell was done around 1.3012 and cover at around 1.2981 (as this is a support area, equilibrium 13083-13012-12981).

if price moves below 1.2976, sell again as shown in the chart.

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  #103 (permalink)
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EUR/USD has been moving within a range for the last few days, an analysis using 90 days of data (9/21 - 12/19) is done and attached.

as can be seen from the chart, price has been moving within equilibrium 13083-13014-12945, the equilibrium is almost fully saturated in the lower part and there is a chance that price may move up to fill up the upper tip of the equilibrium before resume the down trend.

Once 12945 is broken, a new down trend will start and price will move to around 12850
At this point it is harder for price to move up to fill up previous equilibrium with BP13183 due to resistance at 13063 and 13083.

For now support can be found around BP12981 and resistance at BP13065-68.

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  #104 (permalink)
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attached are charts showing a day trade taken a while ago when EUR/USD made the move up, a buy order was executed when price is above BP 13006 due to expected resistances at 13063 and 13081, the order was close at around 13063.

This trade was done by just using the current day data and limited historical data, this is important as it demonstrate the effectiveness of J-Chart in following the invisible hand of the market.

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  #105 (permalink)
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with the strong upmove after posting my last chart, here is an update on EURUSD.

Earlier on when price hit 13083, there was an immediate reaction of price dropping. However that is not the signal to sell, this is because for equilibrium 13083 -13070 - 13057, price did not break 13057, it only retrace up till 13059. a sell should only be done when we see a lower BP and breaking 13056. indeed price move up strongly after hitting 13059.

as shown in the chart, when price move up and breaking 13083, that will be the signal for a buy. however it is unlikely that price will be able to move up to 13170 due to the daily range left.

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  #106 (permalink)
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after a strong push up, price reverse and there was a sell down, this is shown in the attached chart below, where if a sell was done when price drop below 1.3105, it is good for about a quick 40 pips profit, price drop to near S2 (around 1.3062).

Trading Time = Intra-day
Trend = Down
Entry = Break of 1.3105
Stop = above 1.3131
Target = 1.3076/1.3064

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  #107 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
attached is another chart showing the price forecast for EURUSD and giving further evidence for selling if price does go back to 1.3185 and it will be the trader's great privilege and advantage to do so if that happens.

Price went back up to around 1.3185 and we have the privilege to sell as price drop like a rock.

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  #108 (permalink)
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as shown in the chart, price fell around 1.3185, by now trailing stop (1.3083) should be used to protect the profits and try to maximize the profit.

currently price is filling up the dotted rectangle before making a move down again.

Update:
This chart in the link is important as it is a bigger equilibrium which give us the same forecast price of 12850 in the chart attached here. If 12850 really get tagged, it shows that we are now able to follow the invisible hand of the market

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  #109 (permalink)
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Attached is a chart for 22 Dec 2011, as shown in the chart, price are now filling up equilibrium as shown in the dotted rectangles.
Price will consolidate and pave the cave for a while because the EQ 12945-13114-13083 took quite few days to formed and the lower part of it is already fairly saturated.
Price will need to build up enough above 13020 to move down through the saturated lower part of the EQ.

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  #110 (permalink)
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Although price is ranging above 13020, it is still possible to find trading opportunities as bigger eq are made up of smaller eq.

The 1st attached chart show the development of an EQ 13024-13070-13116.

In the 2nd chart a trade was made to buy at 13035, stop at 13020 and take profit at 13114. It was taken as price move above the highest BP 13034 of the last 5 days 1214 to 1220.

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  #111 (permalink)
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The main trend for EURUSD is still down but as shown in the chart there are opportunaties for counter trend trade as shown in the first chart.

EQ13042-13048-13054 was formed, also the BP is higher compared to the previous BP13042 and BP13020 which now act as support levels.
so when price went above 13054(breaking the eq), a buy was done which will be a high probability trade with 3 support levels and including BP13048
Target price will be around 13091 and stops will be trailed as price move in our favour.
Price should be filling up the dotted rectangle before making a move down. Also the 2nd chart show resonance due to eq12991-13042-13093, as there are 2 eqs showing the same point, it is highly probable that price may reach 13091-93.

Time frame = intra-day
Trend = up (once break 13054)
Entry = above 13054
Stop = below 13034
Target = around 13091

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  #112 (permalink)
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ecmf,

Congratulations for your very informative thread.
I have one question regarding potential targets for EURUSD.

Basically,from what I have understood,there could be a target at 1.2899 by symmetry of 1.3197(Wednesday´s High)---1.3048(yesterday´s Balance point mentioned by you)---1.2899(projected target low).

Additionally,by using your previous Balance point of 1.3042,and projecting from the same day High(Wednesday),we could find a target at 1.2887.

Could we consider 1.2887-1.2899 a valid resonance area target?

Thanks in advance and Regards
S

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  #113 (permalink)
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After the counter trend trade in the previous post, price continue to the downside and again there is chance to sell.

As the attached chart shown, the high was 13070-78 which is a resistance level giving us a chance to sell,

Time frame = intra-day
Trend = down
Entry = about 13070-78
Stop = above 13093
Target = around 13044

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  #114 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
ecmf,

Congratulations for your very informative thread.
I have one question regarding potential targets for EURUSD.

Basically,from what I have understood,there could be a target at 1.2899 by symmetry of 1.3197(Wednesday´s High)---1.3048(yesterday´s Balance point mentioned by you)---1.2899(projected target low).

Additionally,by using your previous Balance point of 1.3042,and projecting from the same day High(Wednesday),we could find a target at 1.2887.

Could we consider 1.2887-1.2899 a valid resonance area target?

Thanks in advance and Regards
S

Hello Simba,

thank you for asking and your interests.

Currently the market is paving the area above 13020 and the balance point WILL CHANGE through this paving process, until we see market starting to move down then we can be sure that the NEW balance point is valid and can be used as the center for new equilibrium.
we obtained the large balance points (by combining) to get 12850 But 13042,or 13048 are temporary balance points which will be changed through the paving process.
Therefore we will have to wait for the paving process to complete and price start to come down before we can analyze further.

Hope this is helpful.

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  #115 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
After the counter trend trade in the previous post, price continue to the downside and again there is chance to sell.

As the attached chart shown, the high was 13070-78 which is a resistance level giving us a chance to sell,

Time frame = intra-day
Trend = down
Entry = about 13070-78
Stop = above 13093
Target = around 13044

Trade was closed as price drop to target price.

Edit: Getting out of the trade when price hit forecast price is one of the way to exit a trade, we can also use a trailing stop. Using a trailing stop will maximize the profits.

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  #116 (permalink)
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attached is a chart done after the close of market on 23 Dec 2011. The eq 13195-13070-12945 will be important in the following days. The lower part is fairly saturated and price may pave the upper part before continuing the down trend.
If price do pave the upper part first, the drop will be delayed but it will be inevitable that price will drop lower. If price does not pave, it will fall first and it may take a while before going back up to fill up the upper part.

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  #117 (permalink)
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attached is a chart for CL done yesterday 26 Dec 2011. As can be seen in the chart, price is currently paving the upper half of the eq 8917-9625-10337. Price will be moving within this eq and for now support can be found at 9271 and resistance at 10060 as shown by the dotted horizontal lines.
As the upper half of the EQ is fairly saturated, high chance for price moving to the downside.

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  #118 (permalink)
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Today was a challenging day trading CSI as the market was in zigzag. Price went down at the open before turning around and then went down again back to near the opening.
The chart show how by following the intraday eq as they are being formed, we can follow the invisible hand and prevent getting suck into the fake rally.

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  #119 (permalink)
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Even though it is a tough day to trade CSI due to the zigzag behaviour today, a trade was done as shown in the attached chart.

Trading Time = intrda-day
Trend = down trend (price reverse from resistance at 2364 and not able to break above eq2364-2356-2348)
Entry1 = below 2364
Stop1 = above 2383

Entry2 = below 2348 (add positions)
Stop2 = above 2364

Target = around 2320 (actual low was 2319)

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  #120 (permalink)
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This is a trade that was done earlier, the chart show a eq13017-13048-13079, a trade was done when price move above 13048 which act as support, there are also support at BP13020, BP13042 and now BP13048 which shows a temporary uptrend.

Trading Time frame = intraday
Trend = uptrend
Entry = above 13048
Stop = below 13038 (stop move to BE when price move above 13070)
Target = 13079

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  #121 (permalink)
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Why do traders choose 1 min, 5 min or even 1 hr charts? why can't we used 11min, 5 hours or even 11 hours charts?

Most traders uses fixed time intervals for technical analysis, this is a very very limiting constraint.

The theory of J-Chart tell us that we should not be constrained by this type of artificial intervals, this fixation on using fixed intervals will prevent us from finding the true picture of market movement and tendency.

This is but one of the flaws of current technical analysis

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  #122 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Why do traders choose 1 min, 5 min or even 1 hr charts? why can't we used 11min, 5 hours or even 11 hours charts?

Most traders uses fixed time intervals for technical analysis, this is a very very limiting constraint.

The theory of J-Chart tell us that we should not be constrained by this type of artificial intervals, this fixation on using fixed intervals will prevent us from finding the true picture of market movement and tendency.

This is but one of the flaws of current technical analysis

I agree with you on fixed time periods, up is up down is down. I am curious what you use or your theory on the best way to see the big picture. I think the biggest reason people used a certain time period they feel they can limit there risk by doing this. But then again I am not sure of how you see the big picture clearer, please explain.

Thx Richard

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  #123 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
I agree with you on fixed time periods, up is up down is down. I am curious what you use or your theory on the best way to see the big picture. I think the biggest reason people used a certain time period they feel they can limit there risk by doing this. But then again I am not sure of how you see the big picture clearer, please explain.

Thx Richard

Hello Richard,

many thanks for your interest and your reply, i will try to answer your question.

Let's assume that we agree that fixed time interval is the result of peoples' habit and might have flaws in it , then we shall start thinking from another other angle the events(price).
What is the purpose or result of transacted price?
In J-Chart the answer will be to complete an equilibrium or so called balance within a certain time which may take 3 minutes , 17 minutes ,50 minutes , 2 1/2 hours. Therefore if stick to fixed time interval, the true picture will be distorted and broken up and trader will also be blindsided.
Please note that the equilibrium also depend on the goal of a trader.
Finding of this equilibrium is the basis of the theory of J-Chart and flexible time periods is part of the theory to enable trader to see the true picture of the price.

You can also refer to my attachment in post 32 and the link posted by theSeeker in post 30 to find out more.

Hope this helps.

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  #124 (permalink)
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This is for Richard who was interested in how J-Chart works:

Attached is a chart of EURUSD for a period of 100 days, by not fixated by fixed time intervals, we can find the perfect equilibrium (each is made up of different time length) and see clearly what is the trend. The theory of J-Chart is not only for day trade but it also works very well to find the longer term trend of any markets.

Hope this helps.

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  #125 (permalink)
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With the expected down move, a short was taken as shown in the chart attached below.

Time frame = intra-day
Trend = short
Entry = below 13040
Stop = above 13083
Target = around 12916 (shown in 2nd chart)

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  #126 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
ecmf,

Congratulations for your very informative thread.
I have one question regarding potential targets for EURUSD.

Basically,from what I have understood,there could be a target at 1.2899 by symmetry of 1.3197(Wednesday´s High)---1.3048(yesterday´s Balance point mentioned by you)---1.2899(projected target low).

Additionally,by using your previous Balance point of 1.3042,and projecting from the same day High(Wednesday),we could find a target at 1.2887.

Could we consider 1.2887-1.2899 a valid resonance area target?

Thanks in advance and Regards
S

This is for Simba who is very perceptive and is able calculate the target price which is not too far off as shown in the attached chart. In the 2nd chart, there is also a similar forcasted target at 12888(which is very close to 12889), there will be temporary resonance until a new BP is established.

Hopefully he managed to get something out of this.

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  #127 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
This is for Simba who is very perceptive and is able calculate the target price which is not too far off as shown in the attached chart. In the 2nd chart, there is also a similar forcasted target at 12888(which is very close to 12889), there will be temporary resonance until a new BP is established.

Hopefully he managed to get something out of this.

Thanks for the compliments

I had another EURUSD target at 1.2858 just met a few minutes ago(low so far 1.2857),and there is another lower one at 1.2776... If 1.2858 is broken down

I have 1234.8 as Image Target for the SPX(cash),in case it breaks 1248.00.

What I am doing is using market profile,like you use J-Charts,the reason why is that I have been unable to download/subscribe/take the trial from the J-Charts website....I would appreciate if you could pm me a valid link.

Your(Mr Chen´s) method is exceptional to say the least,Congratulations.

Regards
S

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  #128 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Thanks for the compliments

I had another EURUSD target at 1.2858 just met a few minutes ago(low so far 1.2857),and there is another lower one at 1.2776... If 1.2858 is broken down

I have 1234.8 as Image Target for the SPX(cash),in case it breaks 1248.00.

What I am doing is using market profile,like you use J-Charts,the reason why is that I have been unable to download/subscribe/take the trial from the J-Charts website....I would appreciate if you could pm me a valid link.

Your(Mr Chen´s) method is exceptional to say the least,Congratulations.

Regards
S

Bravo, Simba, i am glad that you see value in the theory of J-Chart. perhaps you can share some charts on your forecasts, a picture speaks a thousand words.
Sadly there are many skeptics who are not willing to try and learn new stuff and instead ridicule Mr John Chen which is why the website was abandoned and software removed.
Now he alone decides who will have access to the software as he deems fit.
As you have shown, one do not need the software to be able to find equilibrium as long as one understand the theory of J-Chart.

Hope this helps.

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  #129 (permalink)
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Many people have ask Mr John Chen what will happen if everyone understand the theory of J-Chart and use it in their trading, will it no longer works?

The answer is simple and really show the beauty and power of equilibrium and the effectiveness of J-Chart.Each of us is unique and has our own preference and approach to trading. While there is a standard way of approaching a trade (T-TEST), each of us can be winners as long as we know our objectives and find the equilibrium needed to meet it. By freeing ourselves from the constraint of fixed time intervals which break up the true picture of price, J-Chart allow us to view the market in all aspects which is not possible using fixed time intervals.

The trade describe in post 125 is one way to enter, one could also enter at the break of the equilibrium below 12945 as shown in the chart in post 124. Both trades will have been a winner.

Hope this helps

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  #130 (permalink)
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this chart is for Simba. Perhaps he will show his version too.

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  #131 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Bravo, Simba, i am glad that you see value in the theory of J-Chart. perhaps you can share some charts on your forecasts, a picture speaks a thousand words.
Sadly there are many skeptics who are not willing to try and learn new stuff and instead ridicule Mr John Chen which is why the website was abandoned and software removed.
Now he alone decides who will have access to the software as he deems fit.
As you have shown, one do not need the software to be able to find equilibrium as long as one understand the theory of J-Chart.

Hope this helps.

Glad to do so,please check attached pics with my rationale for both EURUSD 1.2858(tgt1) and 1.2776(tgt2) Targets.

You are right,understanding the theory behind J-Charts is essential,then you can implement it with different means.
In any case,Kudos to Mr Chen,and,of course,implementing his theory with the instrument he decided was best for it,will probably lead to best results.Hopefully he or his students decide to promote it like you are doing here,exceptionally well,if I may say .

Regards
S

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  #132 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Glad to do so,please check attached pics with my rationale for both EURUSD 1.2858(tgt1) and 1.2776(tgt2) Targets.

You are right,understanding the theory behind J-Charts is essential,then you can implement it with different means.
In any case,Kudos to Mr Chen,and,of course,implementing his theory with the instrument he decided was best for it,will probably lead to best results.Hopefully he or his students decide to promote it like you are doing here,exceptionally well,if I may say .

Regards
S

Hello Simba,

many thanks for your charts. Not too sure how you use it for the forecast thou . Care to explain?

Best regards.

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  #133 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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As the year comes to a close, trading activity tends to slow down and market will be difficult to trade. However this is not always true and if one can find equilibrium, one can still find good quality trade setups.attached are the 2 charts showing how equilibrium helps to find good quality trade setups even under such conditions.

In chart 1, price opens above BP7074 (gap up) and a buy order was executed as follows:

Time frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = above 7095 (market gap up)
Stop = below 7066
Target = around 7148

Price indeed went up to 7148. Then price reverse, as shown in the 1st chart as price break the EQ 7148-77136-7124, we have a sell opportunity.

Time frame = intradat
Trend = down
Entry = below 7124
Stop = above 7148
Target = around 7074 (anticipating closing of gap)

Price indeed went all the way down to close the gap, and we soon have a third trade setup, this is shown in 2nd chart, price went back down test the BP7074 and went up forming BP7090 which gives us a chance to buy.

Time frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = above 7090
Stop = below 7066
Target = around 7106

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  #134 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

many thanks for your charts. Not too sure how you use it for the forecast thou . Care to explain?

Best regards.

Exactly as you do...

I use a customizable market profile,no fixed intervals,so,even if the indicator´s appearance is different from yours,the principles I apply are the same,as explained in the J-Charts pdf.

For example,EURUSD actual distribution in the making,suggests an upmove into 1.3027 which,if reached,should provide very strong resistance.This should be evident,as long as the balance point at 1.2942 is considered the actual one that best reflects the price structure evolution,and,of course,if modified,then a new potential image target should be considered.

Your method is scientific in its principles,but it requires a degree of "art" in its practical application,IMHO,the art lies in choosing the right intervals,and the best way to learn that art is to watch the expert,you,and analyze his charts....So,please keep posting

Additional comment...Do not take this as a critic,just as a comment for pondering...While I agree that having non fixed intervals is perfect,I do not see the rationale behind the "5 ticks"...Why 5,besides the fact that it describes the letter J? IMO the number of ticks should be customizable by the user and this could lead,trough testing, to even better results....I am intrigued about Mr Chen choosing a fixed 5 ticks rule,do you know his actual reasons to do so?.

Regards
S

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  #135 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Exactly as you do...

I use a customizable market profile,no fixed intervals,so,even if the indicator´s appearance is different from yours,the principles I apply are the same,as explained in the J-Charts pdf.

For example,EURUSD actual distribution in the making,suggests an upmove into 1.3027 which,if reached,should provide very strong resistance.This should be evident,as long as the balance point at 1.2942 is considered the actual one that best reflects the price structure evolution,and,of course,if modified,then a new potential image target should be considered.

Your method is scientific in its principles,but it requires a degree of "art" in its practical application,IMHO,the art lies in choosing the right intervals,and the best way to learn that art is to watch the expert,you,and analyze his charts....So,please keep posting

Additional comment...Do not take this as a critic,just as a comment for pondering...While I agree that having non fixed intervals is perfect,I do not see the rationale behind the "5 ticks"...Why 5,besides the fact that it describes the letter J? IMO the number of ticks should be customizable by the user and this could lead,trough testing, to even better results....I am intrigued about Mr Chen choosing a fixed 5 ticks rule,do you know his actual reasons to do so?.

Regards
S

Hello Simba,

thank your for your question.

Your charts posted doesn't not show how you get the triangles, you have a way to draw the triangles to show the forecast?

with regards to your questions, there are 3 reasons:

1) The word 正 represent the Chinese culture and in Chinese means most equilibrium/balanced
2) after transformation of data, the visualization is the clearest
3) 5 is the most symmetric and effective figures

A thing to note, non-fixed time intervals is one part of the theory of J-Chart to find equilibrium, non fixed time intervals is necessary but not sufficient condition to find equilibrium.
Another thing to note, forget about time intervals, concentrate on events and in J-Chart, price is the event.

Hope this helps.

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  #136 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

thank your for your question.

Your charts posted doesn't not show how you get the triangles, you have a way to draw the triangles to show the forecast?

with regards to your questions, there are 3 reasons:

1) The word 正 represent the Chinese culture and in Chinese means most equilibrium/balanced
2) after transformation of data, the visualization is the clearest
3) 5 is the most symmetric and effective figures

A thing to note, non-fixed time intervals is one part of the theory of J-Chart to find equilibrium, non fixed time intervals is necessary but not sufficient condition to find equilibrium.
Another thing to note, forget about time intervals, concentrate on events and in J-Chart, price is the event.

Hope this helps.

Thanks for your kind reply....Enjoy the New Year

S

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  #137 (permalink)
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attached are 2 trades taken on 30 Dec 2011. Details are in the chart. more to follow later.

Happy New Year to all.

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  #138 (permalink)
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here are the details for the 2 trades done in the previous post:

Trade 1:

chart 1:

Time frame = intraday
Trend = down trend
Entry = around 12960
Stop = above 12977
Target = around 12912

from chart 2: once price moves down below 12948 and a perfect eq is formed with BP at 12948, Trailing stop moved from 12977 to 12948, we continue to trail the stop when another eq with a lower BP is formed at 12926, the stop is moved 12926 and we also do a new forecast which is 12902


Trade 2

Chart 3 :

Time frame = intraday
Trend = down trend
Entry = around 12993 (projected high of EQ 12903 - 12948 - 1299)
Stop = above 13045
Target = 12919

Chart 4: From the chart we can see that we have 2 EQ which have about the same endpoints at 12993-97, when price reaches 12997, resonance occur and in this case the price reverses back down to 12948. (low of this move was 12917)

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  #139 (permalink)
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Attached is a day trade done earlier.
from the chart, we can see very clearly strong resistance at 1.3070 and there is an opportunity to sell for day trade and scalping. The daily range is about 120 pips for Euro/USD and this is a typical range trade.

Time frame = intraday
Trend = Range trade (paving)
Entry = around 1.3058 (resistance at BP1.3070 and tip of EQ 1.3055)
Stop = above 1.3070
Target = around 1.3020 (nearest BP)

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ID:	58521  
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  #140 (permalink)
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You said that your chart is composed of only raw ticks. Does each stroke on a 正 require certain number of ticks, or is single tick data for each line of the 正 symbol?

How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice?

Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

Thanks!

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  #141 (permalink)
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ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

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  #142 (permalink)
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loxics View Post
You said that your chart is composed of only raw ticks. Does each stroke on a 正 require certain number of ticks, or is single tick data for each line of the 正 symbol?

How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice?

Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

Thanks!

Hello Loxics,

thank you for your interest and question and i will try to answer it.

There are 5 ticks to each 正 character.
A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP, The software will combine ticks with user-defined interval and the user can then find his required equilibrium.
The size of a triangle required is determined by the objectives of a user and his trading time frame. Longer trading time frame will mean a bigger eq.

Hope this helps.

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  #143 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.

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  #144 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.


Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

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  #145 (permalink)
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here are 2 EURUSD charts showing possible price movements.

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  #146 (permalink)
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With reference to the 1st chart in the previous post (attached here too), a sell was done as price went below 1.3020 breaking equilibrium

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13020
Stop = above 13048
Target = trailing stop used

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ID:	58611  
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  #147 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

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  #148 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

Hello Simba,

do feel free to ask questions regarding J-Chart and you can post your charts too. Glad to know that J-Chart makes a difference in your trading.

Hope this helps.

Update: Simba, please note that there are some fundamental differences between J-Chart and Market profile, trades using J-Chart are always with the trend (breaking of equilbrium), the theory of J-Chart is based on Chinese ancient philosophy and is consistent with chaos theory and not on statistics (standard deviation, normal distribution). It is the practical usage of chaos theory.

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details to follow.

Details:

From the chart, it is very clear that EURUSD is in a downtrend, BPs are moving down. a sell order was taken as follows:

Trade Timeframe = intrdaday
Trend = down
Entry = below 12897 (break of EQ 12943-12920-12897)
Stop = above 12934 (BP12934)
Target = around 12799

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  #150 (permalink)
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Interested readers can look at the expected fate of EURUSD.

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  #151 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Glad to do so,please check attached pics with my rationale for both EURUSD 1.2858(tgt1) and 1.2776(tgt2) Targets.

You are right,understanding the theory behind J-Charts is essential,then you can implement it with different means.
In any case,Kudos to Mr Chen,and,of course,implementing his theory with the instrument he decided was best for it,will probably lead to best results.Hopefully he or his students decide to promote it like you are doing here,exceptionally well,if I may say .

Regards
S

In my post quoted above,on December 29th I mentioned my second target(1.2776),once the first one(1.2858) was hit near exactly...tgt2 1.2776...actual low today so far 1.2776..There is a confluence of shorter term targets very near at 1.2790(1.3076-1.2933-1.2790),so,I presume the 1.2776/90 area could be considered resonant....pending price action confirmation

The calculation for those targets was shown on that post,so,I won´t repeat it here.

S

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  #152 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

@Simba,

Would you kindly share the MT4 indicator for the MP that you are using?

Thanks a bunch.

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aligator View Post
@Simba,

Would you kindly share the MT4 indicator for the MP that you are using?

Thanks a bunch.

alligator,

I can´t share an indicator I got from an Elite section of another forum,same as I wouldn´t share anything from the elite section here(if I were an elite member) at another forum.

Hope you understand,specially because this shouldn´t be a problem for you.

You will be able to replicate/improve my results,as long as you can find any market profile indicator with customizable periods,which I am fairly sure you can,or even a customizable VWAP,of which you have at least one at this forum,since there is a thread named Customizable VWAP periods...or similar .

Regards
S

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  #154 (permalink)
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NFP days are usually slow moving until the news is out and today is no different. Nevertheless 2 trades are done. Do note that these 2 trades are not the normal T-TEST trades but rather a more advanced use of J-Chart.

chart 1 & 2 is for trade 1 and chart 3 is for trade 2. both trade time frame are intra-day

Trade 1:

Trend = down trend
Entry = below 12801
Stop = 12817 (tip of reverse up equilibrium)
Target = 12740 (chart 2)

Trade 2:

Trend - down trend
Entry = below 12762 (reverse eq 12724--44--64)
Stop = 12788
Target = trailing stop

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  #155 (permalink)
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Thanks, no problem, I am an elite member of the same forum, I just downloaded that.

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2 trades are done based on the chart attached.

Trade 1: Buy

Trend = Up
Entry = above 12718
Stop = below 12690
Target = around 12783

Trade 2: details to follow

Trend = Down
Entry = below 12783
Stop = above 12790
Target = trailing stop

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The chart attached is for a day trade done during asian session.

Trend = up
Entry = 12766 (low was at 12760 and price open above BP 12740)
Stop = 12755
Target = 12790

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Currently price is paving the dotted rectangle as shown in the attached chart and it is still in a down trend.

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ecmf View Post
Currently price is paving the dotted rectangle as shown in the attached chart and it is still in a down trend.

With reference to this post 158, if price break above 12719, it will pave the dotted yellow rectangle. The equilibrium 12665 - 12742 - 12819 is decisive.

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Today's day trade as shown in the chart.

Time frame = intra day
Trend = up
Entry = above 12731
Stop = below 12702
Target = around 12775

The 2nd chart shows that the target was met.

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  #161 (permalink)
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Here is another 2 more charts, from the first chart we have a trade

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = above 12776
Stop = below 12722
Target = 12847

The 2nd chart shows that it will have been a successful trade

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ecmf View Post
With reference to this post 158, if price break above 12719, it will pave the dotted yellow rectangle. The equilibrium 12665 - 12742 - 12819 is decisive.

Sorry for typing too fast, price should break above 12819 instead of 12719, it was correct in the original post 158.

As of now, price as indeed broke up through 12819 and it is now paving the dotted yellow rectangle.

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  #163 (permalink)
Aurora, Il USA
 
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ecmf View Post
Sorry for typing too fast, price should break above 12819 instead of 12719, it was correct in the original post 158.

As of now, price as indeed broke up through 12819 and it is now paving the dotted yellow rectangle.


I haven't read a lot of your thread here but it seems pretty good.
I just had a couple questions....do you have projections on where price will end up ?
I have 1.2844 as a resistance level...do you expect that to hold or get taken out or no opinion ?

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  #164 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
I haven't read a lot of your thread here but it seems pretty good.
I just had a couple questions....do you have projections on where price will end up ?
I have 1.2844 as a resistance level...do you expect that to hold or get taken out or no opinion ?

Hello kbit,

many thanks for your interest and your question.

Price is random but we will know what to expect when an equilibrium is broken and not before that. The current bigger equilibrium is 12660 - 12790 - 12920 and as shown in our previous posts that price will pave the dotted rectangle once it went above 12819 and it is now doing actually that.

The attached chart 2 show that the current BP 12818 is lower than the previous BP 12828. If price break below 12818 it will paved the lower green dotted rectangle but if it break above 12847, it will pave the upper yellow rectangle.

Hope this helps.

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ID:	59531   Click image for larger version

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Size:	53.6 KB
ID:	59532  
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  #165 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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For the retracement, euro continued it downtrend. Attached is the chart showing a potential trade.

Time frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 12818
Stop = above 12828
Target = 12687 (we can and should use trailing stop to max our profit taking)

Update:
new eq: 12672 - 12652 - 12632 so move stop to 12672

Update 1:
new eq: 12623 - 12652 -12681 since previous stop is 12672, keep it.

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ID:	59544  
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  #166 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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with this continued downturn of eurusd, the pair should go down further as mentioned in this post 150

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  #167 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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after yesterday slow session due to US holiday, market activity picks up again and again we have a buy opportunity as shown in the chart.

Time Frame = Intra day
Trend = up
Entry = above 12713
Stop = below 12668
Target = around 12804

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Name:	EURUSD0117a.gif
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ID:	59808  
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  #168 (permalink)
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After the buy opportunity, a chance to sell comes along below 12780. The last 2 BPs are at 12780.

Time = intra day
Trend = down
Entry = below 12780
Stop = above 12817
Target = trailing stop

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  #169 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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The chart show what is the "invisible hand of the market doing" for EURUSD, the big trend is still bearish and it is now building up the upper part of the current equilibrium before continuing the down trend.

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Name:	EURUSD0117b.gif
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ID:	59816  
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  #170 (permalink)
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Trade taken for today, refer to the chart. This is a scalping trade while price is paving as noted in the previous post.

Time frame = intra day
Trend = side way (paving)
Entry = sell below 12766
Stop = above 12786
Target = before 12734

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ID:	59886  
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  #171 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
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2nd day trade, this time it is a buying chance.

Trade Timeframe = intra day
Trend = sideway
Entry = buy above 12790
Stop = below 12782
Target = around 12845

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ID:	59888  
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  #172 (permalink)
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3rd Day trade, still scalping. Resonance occur as there are 2 equilibrium with the same end pt.

Time Frame = intra day
Trend = sideway
Entry = sell around 12843
Stop = above 12865
Target = around 12788

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  #173 (permalink)
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1 more scalping trade,

Time frame = intra day
Trend = sideway
Entry = sell around 12842
Stop = above 12877
Target = 12808

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  #174 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
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Another day of retracement, another chance of buying chance arises.

Time Frame = intra day
Trend = sideway
Entry = buy around 12826
Stop = below 12790
Target = around 12908

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ID:	59982  
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  #175 (permalink)
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As price is still ranging, we got chance to sell again.

Time frame = intra day
Trend = sideway
Entry = around 12915
Stop = above 12960
Target = Trailing stop

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  #176 (permalink)
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another day another trade opportunity, as shown on the chart

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = sell below 12939
Stop = above 12985
Target = around 12890

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ID:	60057  
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  #177 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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after a nice holiday to celebrate Chinese New Year, back to same routine.

Buy opportunity :

Trade Timeframe = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = buy above 13133
Stop = below 13089
Target = around 13195

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ID:	60669  
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  #178 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is a day trade done today. Following the standard SOP,

Trading Time frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = sell below 13142
Stop = above 13183
Target = around 13100

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ID:	60777  
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  #179 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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After a strong pullback, opportunity come for a sell as shown in the chart.

Trading Time frame = intra day
Trend = down
Entry = sell below 13202
Stop = above 13224
Target = around 13136

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ID:	60979  
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  #180 (permalink)
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attached are 2 trades done earlier today.

1st chart:

Trading time frame = intra day
Trend = up
Entry = buy above 13135
Stop = below 13118
Target = around 13192

2nd chart:

Trading time frame = intra day
Trend = down
Entry = sell below13150
Stop = above 13190
Target = Trailing stop

Attached Thumbnails
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Name:	EURUSD0215a.gif
Views:	36
Size:	61.1 KB
ID:	62737   Click image for larger version

Name:	EURUSD0215b.gif
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Size:	47.5 KB
ID:	62738  
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  #181 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attach is chart for EU based on the theory of J-Chart, the chart shows the entry and the expected target.
Look to sell when below the red arrow (around 13130) and expected to take profit at around 13062.

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  #182 (permalink)
budapest
 
 
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At which broker can you have j-charting? And where can you get study material concerning j-chart besides j-chart.at?

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  #183 (permalink)
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goforop View Post
At which broker can you have j-charting? And where can you get study material concerning j-chart besides j-chart.at?

Hello goforop,

many thanks for your interest, currently there are no brokers offering J-Chart. In the near future, there is a possibility of a translated version of the book in English.

Best regards.

-ecmf

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  #184 (permalink)
los angeles
 
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Posts: 292 since Jan 2012

An Introduction To J-Charting


good basic article on the subject,new to me also.

'J-Chart versus Market Profile
In some ways, J-Chart is similar to Market Profile, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer in conjunction with the Chicago Board of Trade in the 1980s. Unlike the traditional bar or candlestick charts, both J-Chart and Market Profile provide the trader with a three-dimensional view of market action. But the programs are different in a number of ways as well. '

'

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  #185 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is a trade for EURUSD

Time frame = Intraday / Position trade
Trend = down
Entry = below 13196
Stop = Trailing stop (stop 1 = above 13226, stop 2 = above 13170 and stop 3 = 13135
Target = around 13062-70

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ID:	65105  
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  #186 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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once again opportunity arises for us to take some trade.
attached is the chart for 2 trades.

Trade 1:
Time frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = around 13157
Stop = below 13142
Target = around 13290

Trade 2:
Time frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13265
Stop = trailing stop
Target = trailing stop
edit: out by 13142 (refer to 2nd chart)

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Name:	EURUSD0309a.gif
Views:	60
Size:	45.5 KB
ID:	65695   Click image for larger version

Name:	EURUSD03090b.gif
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Size:	34.7 KB
ID:	65699  
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  #187 (permalink)
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Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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Attached is a longer term analysis for EURUSD.

As shown in the chart, we have the following equilibrium (13355 - 13116 - 12973). If this equilibrium is broken to the downside (below 12973), expect to see EURUSD moving lower (13355 - 13114 - 12873)

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  #188 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is a day trade done yesterday.

Trading Time frame = intraday
Trend = bullish
Entry = above 13178
Stop = 13135
Target = around 13250

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ID:	67065  
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  #189 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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Attached is a chart which show 2 quick scalping trades.

1st Trade:

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = around 13258
Stop = below 13228
Target = around 13284

2nd Trade:

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = around 13284
Stop = above 13322
Target = Trailing stop

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Name:	EUR321a.gif
Views:	67
Size:	70.6 KB
ID:	67369  
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  #190 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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Attached chart is a day trade done today.

Trading timeframe = Intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13226
Stop = above 13254
Target = around 13151

The 2nd chart shows if price is able to break above 13178, price will pave the unfilled region.

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Name:	EUR322a.gif
Views:	52
Size:	58.8 KB
ID:	67372   Click image for larger version

Name:	EUR322b.gif
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ID:	67376  
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  #191 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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another day trade for ES.

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 139600
Stop = above 140575
Target = around 138200

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ID:	67377  
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  #192 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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Target reached.


ecmf View Post
another day trade for ES.

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 139600
Stop = above 140575
Target = around 138200


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  #193 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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ecmf View Post
Attached chart is a day trade done today.

Trading timeframe = Intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13226
Stop = above 13254
Target = around 13151

The 2nd chart shows if price is able to break above 13178, price will pave the unfilled region.

Price did move above 13178 to pave the unfilled region b4 moving back down again.
(as shown in the attached chart)

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  #194 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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ES day trade shown in the chart. In the chart, we can see a perfect EQ circled in yellow.

Trading Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 138800
Stop = above 139525
Target = 138075

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Size:	28.3 KB
ID:	67544  
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  #195 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
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The recent surge in price gives the chance to observe the effects of resonance.

Sold at around 13338

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  #196 (permalink)
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #197 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
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Another day trade for ES.

Time frame = intra day
Trend = down
Entry = sell at 141400
Stop = initial stop at 114650, trailing stop now at 141225
Target = 140700

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  #198 (permalink)
Singapore
 
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
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attached is the trade done for ES today.

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = sell around 138175
Stop = above 138850
Target = around 137050

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  #199 (permalink)
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John, are you in any way related to jChart?

Mike

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Big Mike View Post
John, are you in any way related to jChart?

Mike

Hi Mike

Yes I am developer of J-Chart

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