Price Forecasting with chaos - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Price Forecasting with chaos
Updated: Views / Replies:67,868 / 636
Created: by ecmf Attachments:503

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 503  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Price Forecasting with chaos

  #141 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 16 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received

EURGBP

ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurgbpjan04.gif  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Simba for this post:
 
  #142 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

For Loxics


loxics View Post
You said that your chart is composed of only raw ticks. Does each stroke on a 正 require certain number of ticks, or is single tick data for each line of the 正 symbol?

How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice?

Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

Thanks!

Hello Loxics,

thank you for your interest and question and i will try to answer it.

There are 5 ticks to each 正 character.
A triangle is created with a high/low/BP with another BP, The software will combine ticks with user-defined interval and the user can then find his required equilibrium.
The size of a triangle required is determined by the objectives of a user and his trading time frame. Longer trading time frame will mean a bigger eq.

Hope this helps.

Reply With Quote
 
  #143 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

For Simba



Simba View Post
ecmf,

You asked me how I did it...ok,take a look at the attachment for EURGBP,you will see 3 triangles

First triangle starts on December 13th,you can see a high =0.8480 then a BP=0.8393 which gives an equilibrium image target at 0.8306...The target was slightly exceeded with a low on Dec 21st at 0.8302

Second Triangle...0.8302 to BP 0.8357 gives me a target of 0.8412..again,slightly exceeded on Dec 29th at 0.8420

Third triangle,still evolving..High at 0.8420..BP 0.8354 this projects a target low-as long as the distribution profile doesn´t change- at 0.8288...once it completes and reaches equilibrium,we can start a new triangle.

Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurgbpjan05a.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #144 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 16 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received


ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

many thanks for showing how you do your analysis, attached is a chart of EUR/GBP using 90 days of data.

Hope it will be helpful.


Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurgbpjan04-2.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #145 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

EURUSD Chart 04 Jan 2012

here are 2 EURUSD charts showing possible price movements.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd0104a.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd0104b.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; January 4th, 2012 at 10:25 AM. Reason: updated chart
Reply With Quote
 
  #146 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

EURUSD Day Trade 04 Dec 2012

With reference to the 1st chart in the previous post (attached here too), a sell was done as price went below 1.3020 breaking equilibrium

Time Frame = intraday
Trend = down
Entry = below 13020
Stop = above 13048
Target = trailing stop used

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd0104a.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #147 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 16 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 7 given, 3 received

Target


Simba View Post
Thanks,your posts are always helpful

Please see the updated Image target low,due to the change in the BP...as of now the target to complete the distribution is EURGBP 0.8268.

Regards
S

Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurgbpjan04-3.gif  
Reply With Quote
 
  #148 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received


Simba View Post
Please see attached chart.

Previously mentioned 0.8268 target for a low has been slightly exceeded,with an actual Low at 0.8263.
A new distribution has started from 0.8263,and this allows for a low risk long entry.
Entry@ 0.82682 Preliminary TP 0.8344 SL 0.8248...3:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

ecmf: I thank you ,and Mr Chen,for your kindness in sharing this method,it is really extraordinary.I have posted a few charts using MP,due to:1-Your comments regarding practical unavailability of J-Charts,at least till Mr Chen changes his mind and...2-Other members-including you- asked me if I could explain in more detail what I hinted in previous posts.

I do not want to hijack your thread,so,I will reduce my rate of posting here,even if I may have several questions regarding finetuning of trades,which I will post in a few days if you do not mind me doing so.

Kindest Regards
S

Hello Simba,

do feel free to ask questions regarding J-Chart and you can post your charts too. Glad to know that J-Chart makes a difference in your trading.

Hope this helps.

Update: Simba, please note that there are some fundamental differences between J-Chart and Market profile, trades using J-Chart are always with the trend (breaking of equilbrium), the theory of J-Chart is based on Chinese ancient philosophy and is consistent with chaos theory and not on statistics (standard deviation, normal distribution). It is the practical usage of chaos theory.


Last edited by ecmf; January 5th, 2012 at 12:38 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #149 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

EURUSD Chart 5 Jan 2012

details to follow.

Details:

From the chart, it is very clear that EURUSD is in a downtrend, BPs are moving down. a sell order was taken as follows:

Trade Timeframe = intrdaday
Trend = down
Entry = below 12897 (break of EQ 12943-12920-12897)
Stop = above 12934 (BP12934)
Target = around 12799

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd0105a.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; January 5th, 2012 at 11:19 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #150 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Singapore
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES,Currency
 
Posts: 159 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 2 given, 49 received

EURUSD MidTerm Chart


Interested readers can look at the expected fate of EURUSD.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusdmedterma.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusdmedtermb.gif  
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Price Forecasting with chaos

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Polynomial Pattern Recognition and Forecasting Indicator (www.mooretechllc.com) RodS Trading Reviews and Vendors 14 October 14th, 2012 10:09 AM
Euro chaos: Britain prepares for worst kbit News and Current Events 0 November 4th, 2011 02:04 PM
Libyan Chaos Stirs Global Panic Over Oil Supplies Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 February 27th, 2011 10:20 AM
Your thoughts? America on the Edge of Chaos studio88 News and Current Events 9 August 27th, 2010 10:09 AM
Chaos sefstrat The Elite Circle 8 October 7th, 2009 09:31 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:04 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.92.194.75