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Price Forecasting with chaos
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Price Forecasting with chaos

  #131 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 16 since Feb 2011
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ecmf View Post
Bravo, Simba, i am glad that you see value in the theory of J-Chart. perhaps you can share some charts on your forecasts, a picture speaks a thousand words.
Sadly there are many skeptics who are not willing to try and learn new stuff and instead ridicule Mr John Chen which is why the website was abandoned and software removed.
Now he alone decides who will have access to the software as he deems fit.
As you have shown, one do not need the software to be able to find equilibrium as long as one understand the theory of J-Chart.

Hope this helps.

Glad to do so,please check attached pics with my rationale for both EURUSD 1.2858(tgt1) and 1.2776(tgt2) Targets.

You are right,understanding the theory behind J-Charts is essential,then you can implement it with different means.
In any case,Kudos to Mr Chen,and,of course,implementing his theory with the instrument he decided was best for it,will probably lead to best results.Hopefully he or his students decide to promote it like you are doing here,exceptionally well,if I may say .

Regards
S

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusdsttgt1.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusdsttgt2.gif  

Last edited by Simba; December 29th, 2011 at 12:44 PM.
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  #132 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Simba View Post
Glad to do so,please check attached pics with my rationale for both EURUSD 1.2858(tgt1) and 1.2776(tgt2) Targets.

You are right,understanding the theory behind J-Charts is essential,then you can implement it with different means.
In any case,Kudos to Mr Chen,and,of course,implementing his theory with the instrument he decided was best for it,will probably lead to best results.Hopefully he or his students decide to promote it like you are doing here,exceptionally well,if I may say .

Regards
S

Hello Simba,

many thanks for your charts. Not too sure how you use it for the forecast thou . Care to explain?

Best regards.

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  #133 (permalink)
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TXCC Day Trade 30 Dec 2011


As the year comes to a close, trading activity tends to slow down and market will be difficult to trade. However this is not always true and if one can find equilibrium, one can still find good quality trade setups.attached are the 2 charts showing how equilibrium helps to find good quality trade setups even under such conditions.

In chart 1, price opens above BP7074 (gap up) and a buy order was executed as follows:

Time frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = above 7095 (market gap up)
Stop = below 7066
Target = around 7148

Price indeed went up to 7148. Then price reverse, as shown in the 1st chart as price break the EQ 7148-77136-7124, we have a sell opportunity.

Time frame = intradat
Trend = down
Entry = below 7124
Stop = above 7148
Target = around 7074 (anticipating closing of gap)

Price indeed went all the way down to close the gap, and we soon have a third trade setup, this is shown in 2nd chart, price went back down test the BP7074 and went up forming BP7090 which gives us a chance to buy.

Time frame = intraday
Trend = up
Entry = above 7090
Stop = below 7066
Target = around 7106

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-tx1230a.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-tx1230b.gif  
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  #134 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

many thanks for your charts. Not too sure how you use it for the forecast thou . Care to explain?

Best regards.

Exactly as you do...

I use a customizable market profile,no fixed intervals,so,even if the indicator´s appearance is different from yours,the principles I apply are the same,as explained in the J-Charts pdf.

For example,EURUSD actual distribution in the making,suggests an upmove into 1.3027 which,if reached,should provide very strong resistance.This should be evident,as long as the balance point at 1.2942 is considered the actual one that best reflects the price structure evolution,and,of course,if modified,then a new potential image target should be considered.

Your method is scientific in its principles,but it requires a degree of "art" in its practical application,IMHO,the art lies in choosing the right intervals,and the best way to learn that art is to watch the expert,you,and analyze his charts....So,please keep posting

Additional comment...Do not take this as a critic,just as a comment for pondering...While I agree that having non fixed intervals is perfect,I do not see the rationale behind the "5 ticks"...Why 5,besides the fact that it describes the letter J? IMO the number of ticks should be customizable by the user and this could lead,trough testing, to even better results....I am intrigued about Mr Chen choosing a fixed 5 ticks rule,do you know his actual reasons to do so?.

Regards
S

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  #135 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Simba View Post
Exactly as you do...

I use a customizable market profile,no fixed intervals,so,even if the indicator´s appearance is different from yours,the principles I apply are the same,as explained in the J-Charts pdf.

For example,EURUSD actual distribution in the making,suggests an upmove into 1.3027 which,if reached,should provide very strong resistance.This should be evident,as long as the balance point at 1.2942 is considered the actual one that best reflects the price structure evolution,and,of course,if modified,then a new potential image target should be considered.

Your method is scientific in its principles,but it requires a degree of "art" in its practical application,IMHO,the art lies in choosing the right intervals,and the best way to learn that art is to watch the expert,you,and analyze his charts....So,please keep posting

Additional comment...Do not take this as a critic,just as a comment for pondering...While I agree that having non fixed intervals is perfect,I do not see the rationale behind the "5 ticks"...Why 5,besides the fact that it describes the letter J? IMO the number of ticks should be customizable by the user and this could lead,trough testing, to even better results....I am intrigued about Mr Chen choosing a fixed 5 ticks rule,do you know his actual reasons to do so?.

Regards
S

Hello Simba,

thank your for your question.

Your charts posted doesn't not show how you get the triangles, you have a way to draw the triangles to show the forecast?

with regards to your questions, there are 3 reasons:

1) The word 正 represent the Chinese culture and in Chinese means most equilibrium/balanced
2) after transformation of data, the visualization is the clearest
3) 5 is the most symmetric and effective figures

A thing to note, non-fixed time intervals is one part of the theory of J-Chart to find equilibrium, non fixed time intervals is necessary but not sufficient condition to find equilibrium.
Another thing to note, forget about time intervals, concentrate on events and in J-Chart, price is the event.

Hope this helps.

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  #136 (permalink)
Elite Member
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ecmf View Post
Hello Simba,

thank your for your question.

Your charts posted doesn't not show how you get the triangles, you have a way to draw the triangles to show the forecast?

with regards to your questions, there are 3 reasons:

1) The word 正 represent the Chinese culture and in Chinese means most equilibrium/balanced
2) after transformation of data, the visualization is the clearest
3) 5 is the most symmetric and effective figures

A thing to note, non-fixed time intervals is one part of the theory of J-Chart to find equilibrium, non fixed time intervals is necessary but not sufficient condition to find equilibrium.
Another thing to note, forget about time intervals, concentrate on events and in J-Chart, price is the event.

Hope this helps.

Thanks for your kind reply....Enjoy the New Year

S

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  #137 (permalink)
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EURUSD Day Trade 30 Dec 2011

attached are 2 trades taken on 30 Dec 2011. Details are in the chart. more to follow later.

Happy New Year to all.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230a.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230b.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230c.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230d.gif  
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The following user says Thank You to ecmf for this post:
 
  #138 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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EURUSD Day Trade 30 Dec 2011

here are the details for the 2 trades done in the previous post:

Trade 1:

chart 1:

Time frame = intraday
Trend = down trend
Entry = around 12960
Stop = above 12977
Target = around 12912

from chart 2: once price moves down below 12948 and a perfect eq is formed with BP at 12948, Trailing stop moved from 12977 to 12948, we continue to trail the stop when another eq with a lower BP is formed at 12926, the stop is moved 12926 and we also do a new forecast which is 12902


Trade 2

Chart 3 :

Time frame = intraday
Trend = down trend
Entry = around 12993 (projected high of EQ 12903 - 12948 - 1299)
Stop = above 13045
Target = 12919

Chart 4: From the chart we can see that we have 2 EQ which have about the same endpoints at 12993-97, when price reaches 12997, resonance occur and in this case the price reverses back down to 12948. (low of this move was 12917)

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230a.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230b.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230c.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1230d.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; January 3rd, 2012 at 04:39 AM.
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  #139 (permalink)
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EURUSD Day Trade 03 Jan 2012

Attached is a day trade done earlier.
from the chart, we can see very clearly strong resistance at 1.3070 and there is an opportunity to sell for day trade and scalping. The daily range is about 120 pips for Euro/USD and this is a typical range trade.

Time frame = intraday
Trend = Range trade (paving)
Entry = around 1.3058 (resistance at BP1.3070 and tip of EQ 1.3055)
Stop = above 1.3070
Target = around 1.3020 (nearest BP)

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd0103a.gif  
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  #140 (permalink)
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Some questions


You said that your chart is composed of only raw ticks. Does each stroke on a 正 require certain number of ticks, or is single tick data for each line of the 正 symbol?

How does the program know how big each triangle data size should be? Do you define it or is it automatically generated for you with different data size per each vertical slice?

Also how is the horizontal spacing (varying differences in vertical slice spacing) not affect the BP? If you combine different triangles with its own arbitrarily determined triangle data set (since no time unit interval is consistent), the larger triangle you draw that combines two triangles will have a Image Point (support level) be also arbitrarily set. To say it in other words, how you group each triangle data and how u define the triangle size also change the expected Image Point in the end, no?

Thanks!

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