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Price Forecasting with chaos
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Price Forecasting with chaos

  #121 (permalink)
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The fallacy of Fixed Time Periods

Why do traders choose 1 min, 5 min or even 1 hr charts? why can't we used 11min, 5 hours or even 11 hours charts?

Most traders uses fixed time intervals for technical analysis, this is a very very limiting constraint.

The theory of J-Chart tell us that we should not be constrained by this type of artificial intervals, this fixation on using fixed intervals will prevent us from finding the true picture of market movement and tendency.

This is but one of the flaws of current technical analysis

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  #122 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
Why do traders choose 1 min, 5 min or even 1 hr charts? why can't we used 11min, 5 hours or even 11 hours charts?

Most traders uses fixed time intervals for technical analysis, this is a very very limiting constraint.

The theory of J-Chart tell us that we should not be constrained by this type of artificial intervals, this fixation on using fixed intervals will prevent us from finding the true picture of market movement and tendency.

This is but one of the flaws of current technical analysis

I agree with you on fixed time periods, up is up down is down. I am curious what you use or your theory on the best way to see the big picture. I think the biggest reason people used a certain time period they feel they can limit there risk by doing this. But then again I am not sure of how you see the big picture clearer, please explain.

Thx Richard

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  #123 (permalink)
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The fallacy of Fixed Time Periods



Rad4633 View Post
I agree with you on fixed time periods, up is up down is down. I am curious what you use or your theory on the best way to see the big picture. I think the biggest reason people used a certain time period they feel they can limit there risk by doing this. But then again I am not sure of how you see the big picture clearer, please explain.

Thx Richard

Hello Richard,

many thanks for your interest and your reply, i will try to answer your question.

Let's assume that we agree that fixed time interval is the result of peoples' habit and might have flaws in it , then we shall start thinking from another other angle the events(price).
What is the purpose or result of transacted price?
In J-Chart the answer will be to complete an equilibrium or so called balance within a certain time which may take 3 minutes , 17 minutes ,50 minutes , 2 1/2 hours. Therefore if stick to fixed time interval, the true picture will be distorted and broken up and trader will also be blindsided.
Please note that the equilibrium also depend on the goal of a trader.
Finding of this equilibrium is the basis of the theory of J-Chart and flexible time periods is part of the theory to enable trader to see the true picture of the price.

You can also refer to my attachment in post 32 and the link posted by theSeeker in post 30 to find out more.

Hope this helps.

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  #124 (permalink)
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Fallacy of Fixed Time periods : EURUSD Chart

This is for Richard who was interested in how J-Chart works:

Attached is a chart of EURUSD for a period of 100 days, by not fixated by fixed time intervals, we can find the perfect equilibrium (each is made up of different time length) and see clearly what is the trend. The theory of J-Chart is not only for day trade but it also works very well to find the longer term trend of any markets.

Hope this helps.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1228a.gif  
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  #125 (permalink)
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EURUSD Day Trade 28 Dec 2011

With the expected down move, a short was taken as shown in the chart attached below.

Time frame = intra-day
Trend = short
Entry = below 13040
Stop = above 13083
Target = around 12916 (shown in 2nd chart)

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1228-1.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1228b.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; December 28th, 2011 at 10:16 PM. Reason: added chart 2
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  #126 (permalink)
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EURUSD Chart


Simba View Post
ecmf,

Congratulations for your very informative thread.
I have one question regarding potential targets for EURUSD.

Basically,from what I have understood,there could be a target at 1.2899 by symmetry of 1.3197(Wednesday´s High)---1.3048(yesterday´s Balance point mentioned by you)---1.2899(projected target low).

Additionally,by using your previous Balance point of 1.3042,and projecting from the same day High(Wednesday),we could find a target at 1.2887.

Could we consider 1.2887-1.2899 a valid resonance area target?

Thanks in advance and Regards
S

This is for Simba who is very perceptive and is able calculate the target price which is not too far off as shown in the attached chart. In the 2nd chart, there is also a similar forcasted target at 12888(which is very close to 12889), there will be temporary resonance until a new BP is established.

Hopefully he managed to get something out of this.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1228c.gif   Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1228d.gif  

Last edited by ecmf; December 28th, 2011 at 10:30 PM. Reason: added 2nd chart
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  #127 (permalink)
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ecmf View Post
This is for Simba who is very perceptive and is able calculate the target price which is not too far off as shown in the attached chart. In the 2nd chart, there is also a similar forcasted target at 12888(which is very close to 12889), there will be temporary resonance until a new BP is established.

Hopefully he managed to get something out of this.

Thanks for the compliments

I had another EURUSD target at 1.2858 just met a few minutes ago(low so far 1.2857),and there is another lower one at 1.2776... If 1.2858 is broken down

I have 1234.8 as Image Target for the SPX(cash),in case it breaks 1248.00.

What I am doing is using market profile,like you use J-Charts,the reason why is that I have been unable to download/subscribe/take the trial from the J-Charts website....I would appreciate if you could pm me a valid link.

Your(Mr Chen´s) method is exceptional to say the least,Congratulations.

Regards
S

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  #128 (permalink)
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Simba View Post
Thanks for the compliments

I had another EURUSD target at 1.2858 just met a few minutes ago(low so far 1.2857),and there is another lower one at 1.2776... If 1.2858 is broken down

I have 1234.8 as Image Target for the SPX(cash),in case it breaks 1248.00.

What I am doing is using market profile,like you use J-Charts,the reason why is that I have been unable to download/subscribe/take the trial from the J-Charts website....I would appreciate if you could pm me a valid link.

Your(Mr Chen´s) method is exceptional to say the least,Congratulations.

Regards
S

Bravo, Simba, i am glad that you see value in the theory of J-Chart. perhaps you can share some charts on your forecasts, a picture speaks a thousand words.
Sadly there are many skeptics who are not willing to try and learn new stuff and instead ridicule Mr John Chen which is why the website was abandoned and software removed.
Now he alone decides who will have access to the software as he deems fit.
As you have shown, one do not need the software to be able to find equilibrium as long as one understand the theory of J-Chart.

Hope this helps.

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  #129 (permalink)
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The Beauty of Equilibrium

Many people have ask Mr John Chen what will happen if everyone understand the theory of J-Chart and use it in their trading, will it no longer works?

The answer is simple and really show the beauty and power of equilibrium and the effectiveness of J-Chart.Each of us is unique and has our own preference and approach to trading. While there is a standard way of approaching a trade (T-TEST), each of us can be winners as long as we know our objectives and find the equilibrium needed to meet it. By freeing ourselves from the constraint of fixed time intervals which break up the true picture of price, J-Chart allow us to view the market in all aspects which is not possible using fixed time intervals.

The trade describe in post 125 is one way to enter, one could also enter at the break of the equilibrium below 12945 as shown in the chart in post 124. Both trades will have been a winner.

Hope this helps

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  #130 (permalink)
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For Simba


this chart is for Simba. Perhaps he will show his version too.

Attached Thumbnails
Price Forecasting with chaos-eurusd1229a.gif  
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