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Trading breakouts with stage analysis
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Trading breakouts with stage analysis

  #61 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Could you connect proTA with a data provider such as DTN/IQ ?

Am not sure to be honest. It is end of day software, so doesn't have intra-day time frames, so data is just imported when you connect to service provider you choose. The direct provider is Dial Data which charges a fair bit a month, so I've always stuck to the free data and used other software for looking at intra-day.

Here's the link to website so you can look into it : http://www.beesoft.net/

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; January 3rd, 2012 at 08:20 AM.
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  #62 (permalink)
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Major charts for analysis

Everyone who has read the whole thread and Weinstein's book should be able to interpret a weekly chart by now fairly well, so attached is a handful of the major charts I look at each week for comparisons. As I think it's important to look across a broad range of markets to gauge what the price action is telling you.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading breakouts with stage analysis-gc_weekly_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-si_weekly_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-cl_weekly_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-hg_weekly_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-spx_weekly_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-us-30-year-treasuries_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-ty-10-year-treasuries_6_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-dx_dollar_weekly_6_1_12.png  
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  #63 (permalink)
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Current Weinstein Method Trades


Below is my list of current open trades. Since my last update on here on the 17th Dec I've closed SPD.L at close to breakeven as I didn't like the price action it was showing and the large volume spike on the test of the support. So I closed it on the 29/12/11 at 206.61 for a minor profit.

Current Open Trades
Entry DateTickerDescriptionSectorLong/ShortEntry PriceCurrent PriceEntry StageCurrent StageATR(200) Percent
10/27/11SESpectra EnergyXLUL29.331.032A23.09%
11/1/11RR.LRolls RoyceXLIL678.85759.612A24.58%
11/24/11SI_FSilverCCIS32.00929.67441.42%
11/25/11RAIReynolds AmericanXLPL40.0641.282A21.79%
11/27/11GBP/EURPound/Euro-L1.163601.20801125.48%
12/9/11YUMYum brandsXLYL58.2661.222A22.45%
12/15/11BF.BBrown FormanXLPL78.778.862A20.10%
12/16/11DUKDuke EnergyXLUL21.0821.299220.78%

I haven't bought anything new since the middle of December as the portfolio was performing well and I wanted to let it ride for a while. Current total performance of my Weinstein method trades is +18.96% ATR(200), which equals a 5.70% gain in my account as my position sizing has been a little erratic. But I intend to correct that and worked out a position sizing calculator in my trades spreadsheet over Christmas where each initial position will only be 0.25% of my account based on it's ATR(200) size. And I'll add to the best performers after continuation pivotal points up to a maximum of 1% of my account. My maximum open risk based on stop loss position should not exceed 6% of my account.

So I'm pleased with the progress at the moment. None of the trades are the Weinstein A+ situations he talks about in the book as the volume has stayed average on most. But I think we are more likely to get a few of those once the market actually enters a new stage 2 phase and bullish momentum builds. A few of the stocks have now entered their first pullback phase, so I've got to do my best to sit on my hands through this as if I've picked well then they should continue on and make a new continuation pivotal points and I should be able to move my stop loss up in due course. Of course the market could falter and I could be stopped out but I need to be patient at this point and let the stocks do what they will. Although I am tempted to trim a couple of the worst performers for a small profit to free up some trading capital as I'm at my maximum account risk of 6% at the moment so need to close something before I put on a new trade.

Relative performance versus the S&P 500 has been good as when I opened my first trade on 10/27/11 the S&P 500 closed at 1284.59 and closed this week at 1289.09. And thus has made +0.035% in the same time period. So the account has outperformed the S&P 500 by +5.35% which is quite nice.

Attached are my charts.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading breakouts with stage analysis-se_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-rr_l_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-si_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-rai_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-gbpeur_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-yum_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-bf-b_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-duk_weekly_13_1_12.png   Trading breakouts with stage analysis-results_13_1_12.png  

Last edited by isatrader; January 14th, 2012 at 03:51 PM.
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  #64 (permalink)
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Market Breadth

The market breadth charts that I follow have continued to improve since my last post on the 23nd December. However, 75% of stocks in the NYSE are now above their 50 Day moving average as can be seen on the $NYA50R chart below and have entered the higher risk zone above 70%. This means that in the short term stocks are getting a bit overbought. If you study the $NYA50R you'll see that stocks can stay in this zone for a while, but it's warning you that there's greater risk in the market in the short term of a correction. The longer term charts are all in the mid range area at the moment, so are more medium risk currently but they have plenty room left to go on the upside. So the breadth charts are suggesting that although the market is in a good place for a medium term buy that in the short term we could have a correction soon, so it might be better to wait for a pullback before getting in any new positions.

Market Breadth Signals
TickerDescriptionPercentSignalColumnRisk
$BPNYAThe NYSE Bullish Percent Index62.93%BuyXsMedium
$NYA200RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average48.30%BuyXsMedium
$NYA150RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average59.21%BuyXsMedium
$NYA50RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average75.69%BuyXsHigh
SPY/TLTS&P 500 / US 30 Year Treasuries-BuyXs-

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"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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  #65 (permalink)
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Closing Trades

Trade Details

Brown Foreman Corp B
Ticker: BF.B
Direction: Long

Entry Date: 12/15/11
Entry Price: $78.70

Exit Date: 1/17/12
Entry Price: $79.88

Percentage Gain: 1.50%
Account Percentage Gain: 0.25%
ATR(200) Percentage Gain: 0.77%

Trade Grade: C

Exit Reason
BF.B was acting the weakest technically in my portfolio and I was at my 6% risk limit. So I decided to close the trade to free up some capital in my account, so that I can look for another trade. Volume has been poor since the Stage 2 continuation breakout and relative performance versus the S&P 500 had started to under perform.

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Trade Details

Silver
Ticker: SI_F
Direction: Short

Entry Date: 11/24/11
Entry Price: $32.009

Exit Date: 1/17/12
Entry Price: $30.383

Percentage Gain: 5.35%
Account Percentage Gain: 1.03%
ATR(200) Percentage Gain: 0.99%

Trade Grade: C

Exit Reason
Silver has been in Stage 4 since it's second breakdown in September. I got in on the continuation move in late November, but it took another 3 weeks after to finally roll over and moved down quickly to retest the September low. However, since then it's had a bounce and been struggling to regain the $30 resistance level. But today it broke above that level more convincingly, and price is above the 30 day MA, so as I had full position size I decided to take the 1.03% gain for my account and move on to look for new opportunities.

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"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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  #66 (permalink)
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ADP - Automatic Data Processing

Trade

Automatic Data Processing
Ticker: ADP
Direction: Long
Order Type: Buy Stop

Industry Sector: Industrials (XLI)
Sub-Sector: Financial Administration (^DJUSFA)

Entry: $55.13
Units: 3.92

Stop loss: $53.18
Target: $65.03

Percentage Risk: -3.54% (-1.97% ATR Adjusted)
Potential Reward: 17.96% (10.00% ATR Adjusted)

Account Percentage Risk: 0.5%
Account Potential Reward: 2.53%

Risk Ratio: 5.08

ATR(200 Day): 0.99 (1.80%)
ATR(52 Week): 2.17 (3.94%)

ATR Targets:
1x ATR: 56.12
1.5x ATR: 56.62
2x ATR: 57.11
2.5x ATR: 57.61

Entry Reason
Stage 2 continuation for ADP today. I set a buy stop order with my broker on 6th January for 55.13 which was filled shortly after the open today. My full write up on the stock and the industry and sector analysis can be found on my Stan Weinstein discussion thread here: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Page 27

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"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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  #67 (permalink)
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Current Open Weinstein Method Trades

Here's the updated open trades table:

Current Trades
Entry DateTickerDescriptionSectorLong/ShortEntry PriceCurrent PriceEntry StageCurrent StageATR(200) Percent
10/27/11SESpectra EnergyXLUL29.331.282A23.53%
11/1/11RR.LRolls RoyceXLIL678.85760.632A24.64%
11/25/11RAIReynolds AmericanXLPL40.0641.592A22.25%
11/27/11GBP/EURPound/Euro-L1.163601.20388124.97%
12/9/11YUMYum brandsXLYL58.2661.872A22.98%
12/16/11DUKDuke EnergyXLUL21.0821.319220.85%
1/17/12ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingXLIL55.1355.652A2A0.53%

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Nasdaq 100 Entry

New Trade

Nasdaq 100
Ticker: ^NDX
Direction: Long
Order Type: Market

Entry: $2403.2
Units: 0.088

Stop loss: $2315.70
Target: $2840.70

Percentage Risk: -3.64% (-2.00% ATR Adjusted)
Potential Reward: 18.20% (10.00% ATR Adjusted)

Account Percentage Risk: 0.5%
Account Potential Reward: 2.50%

Risk Ratio: 5.00

ATR(200 Day): 43.75 (1.82%)
ATR(52 Week): 99.98 (4.16%)

ATR Targets:
1x ATR: 2446.95
1.5x ATR: 2468.83
2x ATR: 2490.70
2.5x ATR: 2512.58

Entry Reason
The Nasdaq 100 made a Stage 2A breakout today with the close above 2400 and it's six month downtrend line. I got in early in the day as I was watching the price action intra-day in various markets and stocks and liked the strength I was seeing across them. The Stage 2A continuation move in Apple also gave me the confidence to get in early in the day as it makes up a large percentage of the index.

Below is my entry chart

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New Stage

The breakout and close above 1300 in the S&P 500 moved it into a new Stage today. I'm undecided whether it is Stage 1B or Stage 2A. But there is still significant resistance for the S&P 500 to work through up until 1370, and the percentage of stocks above the 50 day moving average is in it's upper range so I'm still a bit cautious and am going to wait for a pullback before I invest my remaining 0.5% of risk available.

The sector rotation evident in the last few weeks has seen Materials, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology become the new leaders percentage wise. However, the Mansfield relative strength is still negative on Materials and Financials. So my focus is looking for stocks in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology for the time being.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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Market Breadth


The market breadth indicators that I follow have continued to improve this week as you would expect with the breakouts in equities over the week. On a short term basis you can see that we are now near the top of the higher risk zone as 83% of stocks in the New York Stock Exchange are now above their 50 day moving averages. So the risk of a near term correction is increasing and could happen very soon. However, the medium to long term indicators are not so overbought and are in very bullish positions right now.

Finally the ratio between equities and bonds has shifted back to equities as the buy signal from last week has held as people continue to sell treasuries and buy stocks.

So strategy wise it suggests to me to not initiate anymore new stock positions until the short term correction occurs. However, once it does it should be a great opportunity to get into stocks for a medium term move.

Market Breadth Signals
TickerDescriptionPercentSignalColumnRisk
$BPNYAThe NYSE Bullish Percent Index67.88%BuyXsMedium
$NYA200RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average58.08%BuyXsMedium
$NYA150RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 150 Day Moving Average70.21%BuyXsHigh
$NYA50RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average83.34%BuyXsHigh
SPY/TLTS&P 500 / US 30 Year Treasuries-BuyXs-

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"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; January 21st, 2012 at 02:26 PM.
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