Trading breakouts with stage analysis - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Trading breakouts with stage analysis
Updated: Views / Replies:14,893 / 101
Created: by isatrader Attachments:320

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 320  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Trading breakouts with stage analysis

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

Market Breadth

It's been about a month since I last looked at the market breadth indicators in detail. So I thought with the market pulling back and the erratic media proclaiming doom one day and that everything's fine the next, that I should see what the market breadth is saying.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is in a column of Os in the middle of the range, so a fairly neutral field position - 57.41% of stocks are now on P&F buy signals. So it's suggests a slight bullish bias in the market on a percentage basis. However, on a directional basis the failure at the downtrend line and move back to a column of Os suggests that the market has the ball currently and that I should be in a protective mode with a more risk off strategy and tighter stop losses.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R)

The Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) is in a column of Os. 26.65% of stocks are above their 200 day moving average currently, which is 14% less than the high in October. It has fallen back below the 30% level after making two lower highs in November so far and is close to giving a sell signal - but hasn't yet. So this is suggesting caution still in the short term.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R)

The Percent of Stocks above their 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) has topped out and is pulling back, with 59.36% of stocks now above their 50 day MA. This moves from overbought to oversold much more frequently than the 200 day chart, but currently it is negative in the mid range. So is again suggesting caution.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



SPY/TLT ratio

The SPY/TLT ratio has stayed on a buy signal since October. However, the last column of Xs made a lower high and it is very close to giving a new sell signal. So is also suggesting caution currently.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


All in all the breadth charts suggest to me that we are still not out of the bearish phase yet, but that there has been some improvement in the NYA50R an Bullish Percent Index so it could be a more neutral phase between bull and bear, although it seems to be leaning back towards bear at the moment.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #42 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

US Treasuries Stage Analysis

I like to keep an eye on the Treasuries charts as they have a good inverse relationship with the stock market. So I've updated my stage analysis of the US 30 year Treasuries and included the 10 year US Treasuries charts as well.

On the US 30 Year Treasuries weekly chart, price pulled back to the 30 week MA four weeks ago and has had a good bounce since. However, it is yet to make a new high, volume has been below average and relative performance vs the S&P 500 is weakening, so I'm considering it in late Stage 2B at the moment as the moving average is still trending higher.

On the daily chart it is much weaker and has moved into Stage 3 with price trying to break back above the trendline, but so far failing. It's in a Stage 3 range so it could go either way with a break above 147 or break below 135. However, if it fails to make a new high soon then I'd favour it managing to break below 135.

The US 10 Year Treasuries are showing the same pattern so I'd be looking for a break below 127 if it can't make a new high soon.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #43 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

EURGBP Stage Analysis


I stumbled upon an interesting chart today, and thought I'd mark it up as I think it shows a lot of promise for a long term sell. The EURGBP chart has formed a large stage 3 top over the last 3 years or so after a huge Stage 2 run up of around 3000 points in 2007 and 2008.

The price broke down last year to give a Stage 3 low point below the 30 month moving average. This gave a pivot point for a 5 year trendline, which held over the last year until it was breached in September. Price has bounced around that trendline for the last 3 months, but it looks like the sell side is winning as it's not been able to get back above the trendline this November and was sharply rejected when it tested it again this week.

Volume on forex isn't the same as stocks, so I can't use the crucial volume part of the method faithfully on this chart. So I use my backup of cumulative volume at the bottom with a moving average to determine the conviction of the move. Which seems strongly negative as cumulative volume is near the low, but price hasn't fully broken yet - so there is a negative divergence.

The 30 month moving average has turned down for the last 3 months and the weekly chart has moved in early Stage 4A. So I'm looking to sell this with an initial swing target at 81, but hopefully it will eventually take that out as well and continue lower. But as I'm using a monthly chart for this, it could take a very long time to play out. So it's could be a long term sell and hold for me.

Another thing I like about this trade is that both the Euro and the Pound have around a +50% correlation with the S&P 500. So it's one of the few trades I can do that is not correlated to everything else, as it is just a relative strength play between the Euro and the Pound. Of which the chart says the Euro is weakening against the Pound after 5 years of Euro strength. So maybe I'll be able to afford a bit more on my next holiday to Europe.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #44 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

US 30 Year Treasuries Stage Analysis

Attached is the latest US 30 Year Treasuries chart. It made a lower high two weeks ago and sold off a bit last week before bouncing at resistance on Friday. It's another transitional one. I personally rate it as 2B still until the short term trend line is broken. But as we've discovered the transitional stage is subjective, so it could also be classed as 3A and I believe the book recommends taking partial profits at this point and leaving the remaining stop under the most recent major low. So under 135 I think for that.

This is a very important chart imo, as US 30 Year Treasuries have a strong negative correlation with the S&P 500. So if the lower high holds, then it's good news for equities.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #45 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

Update

After the Euro mess got a short term fix yesterday I decided to take a new long position in YUM.

YUM made a Stage 2 continuation breakout on the weekly chart this week to hit new all time highs. Relative performance is good versus it's industry and it's individual sector, and it is also outperforming the S&P 500 as well. Volume is only average, so looks like a good traders entry for the method imo.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I've got a number of other trades open at the moment. They are:

Longs
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
Gold
GBP/USD
GBP/EUR
Rolls Royce (RR.L)
Spectra Energy (SE)
Reynolds American (RAI)
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
YUM Brands (YUM)

Shorts
Silver
DeVry (DV)

My risk is weighted to the long side at the moment and I'm a bit over leveraged for my liking. So I might try to trim some positions in the coming weeks to get back to a safer level.

My long Gold, short Silver relative strength trade is doing ok so far and I'm happy to leave it open for a while as I think if Gold does sell off that Silver will be hit harder.

The GBP/EUR trade has had a good start and moved into profit straight away. It's probably going to be a long term holding for me as I think the UK will outperform Europe in the next few years.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
 
  #46 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

Market Breadth

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

50.41% of Stocks in the NYSE are currently on a P&F buy signal. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index (Head Coach) moved back to a column of Xs over the last few weeks signalling that it time to put the offensive team back on the field. However, as the field position is neutral there's no need to get carried away here. So I'm focusing on a few individual plays in the strongest and weakest sectors for my longs and shorts and staying slightly weighted to the long side in my portfolio.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R)

The Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average ($NYA200R) has moved back below the 30 level, with only 28.5% of stocks above their 200 day moving averages. It is on a sell signal currently and in a column of Os so it needs to reverse above 34% to give a new buy signal currently.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R)

The Percent of Stocks above their 50 Day Moving Average ($NYA50R) has fallen back to 42.93%, but had a reversal on Friday into a column of Xs as 6% of stocks moved back above their 50 day moving average. Although a positive sign, it is a fairly weak one and isn't a buy signal.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


SPY/TLT ratio

The SPY/TLT ratio is currently on a sell signal and reversed 6% into a column of Os last week. It has yet to make a lower low, but it is showing that 30 Year US Treasuries are outperforming the S&P 500 currently.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


As Mike was kind enough to do a table tutorial, I thought I'd put it to use and do a summary table of the charts above.

Market Breadth Signals
TickerDescriptionSignalColumn
$BPNYAThe NYSE Bullish Percent IndexBuyXs
$NYA200RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving AverageSellOs
$NYA50RNYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving AverageSellXs
SPY/TLTS&P 500 / US 30 Year TreasuriesSellOs

As you can see from the table above it's a mixed bag at the moment in the breadth indicators, with a bias towards the sell side. So a time for caution still.

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Last edited by isatrader; December 17th, 2011 at 02:44 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #47 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

Current Weinstein Method Trades

Current Trades
TickerDescriptionLong/ShortEntry PriceCurrent PriceEntry Stage
SESpectra EnergyL29.329.382A
RR.LRolls RoyceL678.85723.142A
SI_FSilverS32.00929.644
RAIReynolds AmericanL40.0640.632A
GBP/EURPound/EuroL1.16361.190392A
YUMYUM BrandsL58.2657.672
BF-BBrown Forman CorpL78.777.752
SPD.LSports DirectS207208.174A
DUKDuke EnergyL21.0820.992

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #48 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

US Treasuries Stage Analysis

Below is the latest US 30 Year Treasuries chart which I believe is very important at the moment as it highlights the risk off trade. Price bounced off the trend line and and made a new weekly closing high and now looks set to test the September high this week. If it breaks out then the risk off trade would be back on and equities would likely sell off imo. One thing to note is that volume was fairly light on lasts weeks move higher though.

Below is the charts

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:
 
  #49 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,229 received

Nice work on the tables

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #50 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Favorite Futures: Silver, Gold, ES
 
isatrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 205 received

Gold Stage Analysis


The weekly chart for Gold has moved into Stage 3 now, with price finding support this week at the 3 year trend line. Volume has been leaving Gold as you can see in the cumulative volume, but price is near the bottom of the Stage 3 range so there’s a possibility of a bounce soon. Especially as there a number of factors supporting Gold in the 1550 to 1600 area.

To become long term Stage 4 I’d personally want to see a close below the 3 year trend line and a move below 1535. Here’s the chart


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to isatrader for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Trading breakouts with stage analysis

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Aftershock May Be Setting the Stage for Recovery Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 August 13th, 2011 11:50 AM
Trading breakouts on the news PowerM Emini Index Futures Trading 5 June 6th, 2011 07:54 AM
How do I avoid early market false breakouts grego The Elite Circle 30 April 16th, 2011 11:27 AM
aviat72's Journey: From Analysis to Trading aviat72 Elite Trading Journals 24 August 7th, 2010 01:54 PM
Webinar Trading Video: Live Trading and Technical Analysis of EuroStoxx 50 max-td Trading Reviews and Vendors 1 March 13th, 2010 07:35 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:45 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.19 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.160.245.121