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Trading breakouts with stage analysis


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Trading breakouts with stage analysis

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  #101 (permalink)
 isatrader 
London, England
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Trading: Silver, Gold, ES
 
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Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
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Since I closed out my medium term positions in stocks on 12th March I've moved to a more short term trading phase focusing on commodities trading both long and shorts. I've put on 16 new positions since then of which four are now closed with 3 winners in Silver, GBP/USD and KLR.L and one loss in Corn. So I've now got 12 open positions which have mostly been opened in the last week or so, and for the commodities picks I've been trialling Dorsey's matrix service and have created a custom futures matrix which shows the peer relative strength in a large table of point and figure signals which I've attached. This is a supplementary tool to my normal method as peer to peer relative strength is very important to that.

It's early days for the picks, so there hasn't been much movement yet, but below is the table of the open trades.

Current Trades
Entry DateTickerDescriptionSectorLong/ShortEntry PriceCurrent PriceEntry StageCurrent StageATR(200) %Grade
3/14/12GC_FGold-S1650.211645.5133B0.13%C-
3/22/12GC_FGold-S1634.181645.5133B-0.31%D
3/14/12GBP/USDPound / US Dollar-L1.570451.588812A1.76%A-
3/19/12GBP/USDPound / US Dollar-L1.588311.58881B2A0.05%C-
3/30/12GBP/USDPound / US Dollar-L1.602111.58882A2A-1.28%F
3/19/12HG_FCopper-L3.90043.882511B-0.16%D
3/26/12HG_FCopper-L3.90043.869711B0.11%C-
3/28/12SB_FSugar-S0.246870.246771A-1A-0.01%C-
3/29/12O_FOats-L3.47973.40171B1B-1.26%F
3/29/12CT_FCotton-L0.935530.920774B-4B--0.49%D
4/2/12W_FWheat-L6.49656.55214B-4B-0.32%C-
4/3/12C_FCorn-L6.55786.57581A1A0.10%C-


"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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  #102 (permalink)
 isatrader 
London, England
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Stockcharts, NinjaTrader, ProTA
Trading: Silver, Gold, ES
 
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Posts: 180 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 68 given, 207 received



All four of the breadth indicators listed above are now in a column of Os with an additional sell signal in the NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 200 day moving average ($NYA200R) as it dropped below the key 70% level.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) has now changed to Bear Alert status as it reversed to a column of Os and dropped below 70%. However, the short term breadth chart of the NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 50 day moving average ($NYA50R) has fallen to it's lowest level since the November bottom and has now entered the low risk area below 30%. So almost everyone who wants to sell in the short term has already sold, but that doesn't mean the market can't drop further as you need to wait for demand to come back in and a reversal on the chart back above the 30% level. So I'm going to be watching closely for a new short term buy signal on the $NYA50R chart, but if the down move is more serious then it can linger at the lower levels for a while.

Below are the breadth charts:

NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) - this is a compilation of the percent of stocks that trade on the NYSE that are on Point and Figure buy signals and tells you whether to be offensive or defensive with your strategy.
  • Xs = offense
  • Os = defense
  • 30% and 70% are the oversold and overbought areas where risk is highest
  • All stocks have an equal vote


NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 200 day moving average ($NYA200R) - this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 200 day moving average



NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 150 day moving average ($NYA150R) - this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 150 day (30 week) moving average



NYSE Percent of Stocks above their 50 day moving average ($NYA50R) - this is a measure of the percent of stocks on the NYSE that are trading above their 50 day (10 week) moving average


"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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Last Updated on April 10, 2012


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