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I made that statement just before the Fed announcement and it turned out to be fairly on target. The decision NOT to exit on the Daily Omega-Abs Indicator showing exhaustion, was the reason why my Weekend Gap Closure position is now sitting at current: -12.9 pips.
So, overall, I'm exceedingly happy with the results - because I understand the errors made and how to correct them.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
This is what live testing is all about. It is not a game. It is a serious opportunity to improve trading results long-term. There must be lessons learned and those lessons have to be applied to production trading. So, the analysis of every single step along the way, is vitally important to long range success in a production environment.
As long as one learns something about what happened, then their time and money spent is essentially a deposit in the bank of experience, from which one can make withdrawals in the future.
A double breach of yesterday's High and Low has just commenced, which means an almost guaranteed return to BE on the Weekend Gap Closure position. So, I'll hold that through the next session until it recovers, as the Daily bar is now engulfing the previous Daily bar. Current: -46.7 pips.
So, essentially, we got a technical reversal to the Upside, followed by a fundamental reversal to the Downside on the Fed's statements. That caused the Daily engulfing of the previous Daily bar. Expect more volatility in the next Daily session on the EURSUD.
No OmegaWave signal/trigger on the 2000 hr H1 bar. H1 OmegaWave (the combination of both Omega-Tac and Omega-Sac MAs) has now exceeded its signal range. That basically means that all OmegaWave triggers get reversed from this point forward in the trading session, should they occur.
Why?
The reason for this is that right now, Omega-Tac = 65 pips, while Omega-Sac = 56 pips. That means that a move from the H1 High or Low, will have to be be somewhere in the neighborhood of 60.5 pips (Omega-Tac + Omega-Sac /2), in order to trigger the trade. Well, since H1 OmegaWave has a peak of roughly 55 pips, the trigger itself would exceed the OmegaWave historical averages, therefore, reversing any OmegaWave signal that gets triggered for the remainder of this session.
This understanding comes from knowing that the OmegaWave will have to enter its Compression Phase at some point, before the end of the trading session, which is less than 4 hours away. So, the reversal of the OmegaWave signal, is not something I talked about previously, but its simply common sense, given the exhaustion of the OmegaWave itself and its eventual need to undergo Wave Compression.
In short, on exhaustion of the OmegaWave, all signals get reversed.
Expecting a roughly 63 pip move to the upside from here, over the next 3 hours as this session moves to a close at 23:59 GMT. That's a system trade signal, which is triggering right now. Obviously, I'm not trading that signal right now, given my involvement in these certification tests. However, it will be interesting to see how that primary trade signal does under the weight of the Fed's news in the opposite direction.
The primary trade signal, has nothing to do with this journal - I'm just mentioning it because of its timing. Primary Trade Signal Entry = Long at 3570. Target = 3633. Timing = by 23:59.
On the Weekend Gap Closure side of things - still holding Long position and waiting for BE plus 10 pips to cover earlier loss this week.
2000 hr now complete. No H1 OmegaWave signal generated. 2100 hr is expected to produce the OmegaWave Compression Phase, unless there is more news or residual downside pressure from the Fed's previous statements.
2200 hr begins. Chart shows that no OmegaWave signal got triggered to either side (no intersection of Omega-Abs with OmegaWave) and that as expected, the OmegaWave has shifted into its Compression Phase (seen by the OmegaWave turning downward in the H1 Indicator Window).
The Primary Signal Trade has launched and the hold on the Weekend Gap Closure is still in effect. Current: -20 pips.
Note the OmegaWave compression on the M5 and M15. That cannot remain intact - price must move and the directional quality of the market in the short term is Long.
