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JetTrader: Developmental Live Cash Journal
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JetTrader: Developmental Live Cash Journal

  #61 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Edmonton, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: BARX
Favorite Futures: Currency Pairs
 
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Posts: 187 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 12 given, 161 received

r3algood - welcome!

Mike - thanks for the explanation, though ironically, I never got logged out yesterday. That was because of the number of posts I made. I don't expect to be posting that much in a single session going forward, so we'll see how things work out from here.

It was 5am when I got to work today. Gap closure seems to be underway, so I'm going back to bed to get some more sleep. I'm typically up and at work by 5am Mon-Fri, so I can catch the 1200 H1 bar. 3752.9 is Gap Closure and today's high thus far has been 3743.6. So, 9.3 more pips to go with almost half of the trading session remaining.

I'm not a Gap expert, so I don't know if we will get there today or not.

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  #62 (permalink)
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Little Rock, Arkansas
 
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JetTrader View Post

Until one understands the differential between a Trajectory and a Trend, it is very hard to know where to set a stop, or even if a stop is needed. Sometimes, stops can be the trader's worst enemy, especially when they are placed randomly and without an appreciation of the dominant Trajectory. In fact, one of the secretes to my trading is that I do not use stops. Essentially, I am the stop. I set a certain number of hours per day to be available for emergency action messages form my system and I act accordingly. False stop placements, or stops placed right in the middle of a dominant Trajectory, is an almost guaranteed loss of capital. It is like being robbed in broad daylight by a man with a wooden gun, as price begins to move back in the direction of your original trade. [how many times as that happened!] No doubt, we've all been ripped off like that many times in the past.

Where do you seek an exit in the market if a position goes against you?

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  #63 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Edmonton, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: BARX
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Thanks: 12 given, 161 received



r3algood View Post
Where do you seek an exit in the market if a position goes against you?

It depends on what these two system modules tell me:

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The first system module is called the MetaBrain and the second is the Targeting Package. The brain provides the trade signal, while the targeting package provides the answer to your question. Behind each "PE" and "PT" value, sits an algorithm for determining the 'optimal' target range. That range is called the Primary Entry Mask and the Primary Target Mask. The Stop is geared through the MetaBrain signal's magnitude indicator and coupled to the Primary Target and Primary Entry Masks. The Stop is a derivative of PT coupled with PE and balanced (or, stabilized) by the signals magnitude indicator.

There is no one Stop location - there are many. They are all synthesized into a high probability 'negative' price target - meaning, a location adverse to the purpose of the trade signal. It is a 'real' system, as opposed to what you see me doing here in this thread.

For this thread, because I'm only certifying a new component within the broader system, I am the Stop and I am the Limit.

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The following user says Thank You to JetTrader for this post:
 
  #64 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Posts: 187 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 12 given, 161 received

Both modules above have been disconnected from the live data stream, so their output in the pic is all invalid. It is merely a pic to show what the modules look like inside the signal engine.

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  #65 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Futures Experience: Master
Platform: BARX
Favorite Futures: Currency Pairs
 
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Posts: 187 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 12 given, 161 received

1700 GMT starts the 'next day' given the test platform I use for FX data. So, the battle for Gap Closure begins again this session. The bottom of the Weekend Gap is 3752.9 in the platform I use (yours may vary slightly). Last session (9/20/11) saw a high of 3743.6. So, the Weekend Gap is still (technically) open - albeit not by that much.

A break of 3743.6 clearly brings Gap Closure into play. After that, I'll make the decision to take the pips, close the trade and move back into the OmegaWave testing. Sorry, for the delay, but I don't see many unfilled Weekend Gaps of this size and clarity as often as I like. So, I'm going to take advantage of the live testing opportunity.

I've added one more indicator, just to help me better measure some of the OmegaWave entries a bit better. The indicator added is called Distinct Vega. It is a modified version of what I originally created - as the modifications were just done about 2 weeks ago. So, the output of this DV Indicator is not exactly what is used to be previously.

DV measures Open to High, Open to Low, High to Close and Low to Close, over N periods for each bar (where N can be any measure of time you like). There are other, more advanced components of the DV Indicator, but that's the basic framework you see on screen. After that, the changes I've made since are highly proprietary and I don't discuss them in public.

Current: +100 pips.

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Last edited by JetTrader; September 20th, 2011 at 09:25 PM.
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  #66 (permalink)
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Gap Closure complete.

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I'm waiting for either a double-top confirmation of the highest high, or a very large AB=CD pattern to continue through the Gap level. Gap Closure Retracement is now underway, pulling price back below the Gap. This should be a temporary condition.

This is also a good example of why I am not a Swing Trader. I'm not knocking that form of trading, but the longer the market remains close to, or slightly outside-the-money of your entry, the closer your trade signal moves to a 50/50 condition. So, if you have a trade signal with an historical accuracy of say 90% to a specified target, if price remains at or near your entry, that 90% will erode down to a flat 50%/50% the longer the position remains open in the same price region of the original entry.

This is one of the hidden "negatives" about Swing Trading that only empirical research of the data will reveal to you. If one has not take the research of the data they trade as a very serious project, then one is doing themselves a disservice, because there are a lot of hidden truths about the market, lurking inside its data. Swing Trading can be done correctly, but it takes either a massive amount of gratuitous fortune, or somebody has to have studied the data for long term success.

Semi-High Frequency Trading, offers the lowest exposure risk (believe it or not - it is true when you look at the data), when you are trading with high probability trade signals - signals that have a historicity of being accurate to a specific target level.

I'll more than likely go ahead and dump this trade at some point today, so I can get back to the certification trials.

Current: +130 pips.

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  #67 (permalink)
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OmegaWave Instructive:

Below is the current screen shot of the H1 chart with annotations.

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I post it to show that Maximum Omega-Abs (MxO) does not always occur. You can look back through the days on the H1 chart to see that it does have a fairly good strike history. Keeping in mind that both MxO and MnO (Maximum Omega-Absolute Value and Minimum Omega-Absolute Value) are dynamically generated values. So, for the certification testing, I have to continually make minor adjustments to the both the White Solid Line and the Purple Solid Line, which represent both MxO (White) and MnO (Purple). I have not been very diligent in making those minor adjustments, but the adjustment range is very small anyway, and thus far in the week have been negligible.

Here's the point - whenever Omega-Abs (the Yellow bars in the H1 Indicator Window) start to [u]under-perform[/b] MxO and MnO, you can expect the market to be in the process of making a larger scale pivot. In this case, we have witnessed MxO and MnO being underperformed on the H1 and now the transition from a Short biased Trajectory, to a Long biased Trajectory in the market.

The Omega Indicator has two external variable inputs: Omega-Tactical (Gray Line showing MA) and Omega-Strategic (White Line showing MA). The values used to set the "Period" for both Omega-Tac and Omega-Sac, is what determines the time frame for the transition to a pivot in the market after MxO and MnO fail to occur.

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  #68 (permalink)
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Pretty much reaching Daily Omega exhaustion, which is Omega-Tac 145 pips and Omega-Sac 155 pips. Daily Omega-Abs = 147 pips. So, the EURUSD is pretty much in the sweet spot right now. Anymore upside move today, will have to come from news and/or economic reports. However, as you can see from the charts, the H1 Omega-Abs (Yellow bars inside the H1 Indicator Window) appear to be very strong and showing no signs of letting up. Remember, however, that Omega is a non-directional indicator, so those yellow bars could very well be massive spikes to the downside just lurking behind the scenes. One needs directional indicators to give insight about direction.

I'm back to the same headline: No Minimum Omega-Absolute (MnO) strike on the H1 time frame. So, given the regularity with which the MnO occurs, I'll continue to hold this position until I get the MnO strike - with the key being, to get that strike to the upside, as downside strike on MnO would wipe out close to 45 pips of profit at this point - not something I would normally want to give up in live production trading. But, since this a certification test, I can and will allow the added risk, but not exiting the market right now. Current: +161 pips.

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  #69 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Futures Experience: Master
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Posts: 187 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 12 given, 161 received

Another instructive about trading with Omega is that it forces patience and it removes some of the emotional banter within that could occur with pure directional trading. If I know the cycles of the Wave form, and I know when the periods from Peak to Peak, then it helps to cut down on some of the whiplash that many have experienced this week while trading the EURUSD.

Inside every large scale Trajectory (the big time frames), resides an OmegaWave in all the smaller time frames. It took me a long time to make that logical connection, even though I had built the indicators years prior. You can think of Omega-Absolute (the Yellow bars inside the Indicator Windows) the same way you would light photons. And, you can think of both MA lines (the Gray and White MA lines inside each Indicator Window) of the Omega-Tac and Omega-Sac, as the light wave.

So, you get light particles traveling in the form of a wave. Commensurately, you get Omega-Absolutes (Yellow bars) traveling in the form of an OmegaWave (Omega-Tac and Omega-Sac), for each Trajectory, regardless of its size. Essentially, taking the pulse of the market's price behavior.

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  #70 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Posts: 187 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 12 given, 161 received


MnO (Minimum Omega-Absolute Value) has just been struck (Purple line struck). More importantly, it was struck to the upside before peeling of a bit back below Ask 3768.7. This starts the new 1800 GMT hour and I expect some pull-back, as the 1700 hour ended with a high spike - which could indicate the start of a double-top move into the OmegaWave Compression phase. On my test platform, there are still 6 hours remaining in the trading session, but that will run through the U.S. equities EOD.

Same story - I'm waiting for MxO and I want it to be to the upside. Current: +164 pips.

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