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Typically, on CD Intercept trades, I wait for M5 and M15 Omega-Absolute to breach their respective OmegaWave levels before entering. But, anywhere before or on the XB entry slope is appropriate.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
The final 2300 hr is now underway. No H1 OmegaWave signal was triggered in the 2200 hr. Still holding Weekend Gap Closure on a failure to exit at +161 pips. Primary Signal (if I were trading it) is now roughly 20% filled to 63 pips. The actual production system generates a dynamic target, so the 63 pip initial reference will most likely get edited.
C now resets to below 88.6 of AB leg, triggering Stop and Reversal of 50% cost basis - leaving 50% behind to trail. (for notational purposes - not trading Harmonic pattern). Adding the lost 50% would take place at the XB entry slope to the upside, if that occurs.
If the primary signal were being traded, it would be pushed back into the spread. Essentially, the Fed's statement is providing suppressive fire for the primary signal - if that were being traded.
[If it were being traded] The primary signal would now go into inter-day trade mode. As a side note - all primary trades are by definition intra-day trades. They have an profit timeline that ranges from the entry to the close of the session in which they were triggered. If the target is not struck and the dynamic stop is not reached, the trade is held into the next session.
That's the end of the trading session and the end of my work day. Since I got off to a late start today, I extended my work day for a few more hours.
Recap:
A) The net total of H1 OmegaWave trades starting at 1200 GMT and running through 2359 GMT, provided more confirmation of a well behaved trade signal and forces me to consider the signal as a stand-alone input to the larger system. That would require a different kind of integration path technically, but it can be done rather smoothly. Thus far, I am very pleased with the key performance benchmarks: Minimum Omega-Absolute, Maximum Omega-Absolute and OmegaWave propagation throughout the trading session.
B) A more than 160 pip profit was wiped away today in the wake of the Fed comments about selling/buying same term Treasuries. The EURUSD fell on the news from a high of 3784.4 to a Daily low of 3556.5, for a wide range of 227.5 pips. Enough to remove a 160+ pip net gain. Current: -52.4 pips on the Long Hold.
Will return on Thursday and hopefully, I'll be able to close the unexpected Weekend Gap Closure trade for a profit, while getting back to the purpose of the thread, which was to certify the OmegaWave and the M1 CD Intercept trade types.
1) Simulated M5 CD Intercept trade failed to a 50/50 BE.
I've noted that the CD Intercept trade types do have more failures to produce a profit, while having a higher rate of BE potential. This one fit that same mold. Using the early entry failed. Using the optimal XB Slope entry would have yielded no signal at all and kept me out of the trade. Using the 50/50 Stop & Reversal technique, I was able to see BE on the attempt (see the chart above).
2) Simulated Primary trade is in draw phase at -24 pips, which is well within standard draw range for that particular signal.
3) Actual previous Weekend Gap Closure trade is now -68.2 pips and still open. Seeking BE or better on that attempt.
As the European Markets continue the downward fundamentals on the EUR against the USD, on the Fed's comments yesterday, all long positions are flattened.
- [actual] Weekend Gap Closure trade: Margin Call at current: - 229.9 pips.
- [simulated] Primary Signal trade: would have failed at: -42 pips.
- [simulated] M5 CD Intercept trade: would have broken even plus the extension to the current close (3399.8) at + 183 (approx) split between an offset 50/50 Stop & Reversal set of trades.
Biggest lesson learned was the importance of closing out a Weekend Gap once the closure level has been met. Though this journal will be about the M1 CD Intercept trade type, the M5 CD Intercept trade worked the way it should on the Stop & Reversal trades on the initial CD Intercept failure. Since I don't typically trade the Primary Signal on the heels of adverse fundamental news as a system rule, I'm not concerned with the simulated loss on that trade - but I'm always interested to see how the Primary Signal does under the weight of known adverse news conditions.
I will now commence with H1 OmegaWave certification -- after an unexpected four (4) day delay and I will use the current pip totals to simulate the needed recovery for a single months worth of trading. Since I typically get 20 trading days per month, I will consider the remaining days at 16.
After four (4) trading days, I need to recover 299.9 pips. So, this will be a very good (unexpected) additional test for the OmegaWave trade type and a rather welcome one to boot.
To make the test as hard as possible, I won't include the simulated +183 pip gain on the M5 CD Intercept and I will only include the actual and simulated losses in my recovery needed total.
Total: -299.9 pips to recovery (an average of 74.97 pips per day).
My work day begins (typically) at 1200 hrs GMT. Since I missed the start of my work day today (while waiting on the disposition of the Weekend Gap Closure trade results), I was not able to participate in the H1 OmegaWave 1200 hr signal, or the H1 OmegaWave 1300 hr signal. However, I will cover their results with this post.
I am not including this in the actual pips needed to recover the 299.9 in losses thus far. This merely records for the record the OmegaWave performance to date.
MnO struck. Will be looking for MxO by end of bar. Current: -7 pips.
30 Minutes remaining in 1400. Current: -3 pips.
Exit 3472.1
Net: +3.4
1500 OmegaWave pending...
